Odds and Ends: Holliday, Takahashi, Lincecum
Links for Wednesday…
- Richard Justice says the Astros should offer Andy Pettitte $7-8MM to come back.
- Joe Christensen doesn’t see Huston Street landing in Minnesota.
- Larry Beinfest dismissed a "cyberspace rumor" that the Marlins are planning a run at Manny Ramirez.
- Gordon Wittenmyer says the Cubs could fit both Jake Peavy and Ryan Dempster into the payroll, and that the Peavy situation will be resolved first.
- Today is the deadline for MLB.com’s Free Agent Frenzy. You have until 4pm CST to submit your picks for 15 free agents. Here are my predictions from November 3rd…I would change the Furcal and Sheets ones for starters.
- Who had the Matt Holliday scoop? SI.com’s Jon Heyman broke the story, while Yahoo’s Tim Brown was the first to name the players involved.
- Holliday figures to be a three to six month rental for the A’s. Over at FanGraphs, Dave Cameron takes a closer look at Carlos Gonzalez and Greg Smith. ESPN’s Keith Law says the Rockies received a "fair return" for Holliday.
- Athletics Nation suggests the A’s sign Derek Lowe.
- Ken Davidoff looks at the Yankees’ seesawing philosophy.
- Japanese southpaw Ken Takahashi intends to sign with an MLB club, and the Mets may be interested. Nikkan Sports says the Cubs, Padres, and Giants are also in on him.
- River Ave. Blues looks ahead to Derek Jeter‘s next contract.
- Andrew Baggarly reminds us that Tim Lincecum intends to go year to year.
- ESPN’s Buster Olney talked to one GM who expects "a whole lot of bargains" in late January, given the nation’s economy.
- Rany Jazayerli didn’t like the Royals’ acquisition of Mike Jacobs, but doesn’t think it’s the end of the world.
- Braves GM Frank Wren on Jeff Francoeur: "We haven’t talked about him at all. It’s not to say that we wouldn’t."
Stark’s Latest: Cain, Beltre, Burrell, Wigginton
Let’s take a look at the latest column from ESPN’s Jayson Stark.
- Stark wonders why no one has questioned MLB’s apparent trade deadline extension for the Manny Ramirez deal.
- Currently the idea of the Brewers swapping Prince Fielder for Matt Cain is just fun speculation. However, it is true the Brewers will listen on Fielder (he is about to get expensive). The Giants are known to like the big first baseman. The hangup is Brian Sabean’s reported unwillingness to trade Tim Lincecum or Cain.
- The Giants also have their eye on Adrian Beltre. The Mariners want starting pitching, but one year of Beltre is not equal to four of Jonathan Sanchez.
- The Phillies still don’t want to go past two guaranteed years for Pat Burrell. Stark points out another complication – Burrell would gain 10-and-5 rights early in a Phillies contract. Any NL team inking Burrell for four years is a risky proposition given his defense. If Burrell leaves the Phillies, Stark doesn’t expect the team to sign a major free agent as his replacement.
- The Indians deserve props for acquiring Anthony Reyes. Let’s not overdo it though – it’s only been five starts, and his strikeout rate is just 4.0 per nine in Cleveland.
- The Indians talked to multiple teams about Cliff Lee last winter. Interestingly, they thought the hardest about swapping him for Carlos Quentin.
- The Astros were quite willing to trade Ty Wigginton, prior to his massive August.
Post-Draft Roundup: Hosmer, Smoak, Strasburg
Below I’ve collected more interesting remaining links regarding the amateur draft.
- The Royals bumped their offer from $5MM to $6MM and signed top pick Eric Hosmer. Rany Jazayerli was surprised to see Hosmer effectively get more than #1 pick Tim Beckham. The Royals joined the Red Sox and Pirates as teams spending around $10MM on draft picks this year.
- The Rangers resisted a Major League deal for Justin Smoak, and ultimately signed him to a $3.5MM minor league deal. Owner Tom Hicks pined for a hard slot system.
- The story of pitcher Chris Gruler, picked third overall by the Reds in ’02, reminds us to temper our enthusiasm for these kids. Many will bust.
- Tim Lincecum says Buster Posey can expect other minor leaguers to treat him differently because of the bonus he received.
- The race is on for Stephen Strasburg, who is separating himself from the pack as the top talent in the ’09 draft. The Mariners, Padres, and Nationals all have a shot at him, with the Nats in the "lead." Would the Nats avoid Strasburg due to signability concerns?
Week In Review: 8/10 – 8/16
Taking a look back at this week’s happenings here on MLBTR…
- The biggest move of the month was the Diamondbacks’ acquisition of slugger Adam Dunn for Dallas Buck, Micah Owings, and Wilkin Castillo. I can’t remember any August trades of this magnitude.
- Bronson Arroyo told the media Dunn would be seeking over $100MM this offseason; Dunn denied the report wholeheartedly. I’d be surprised to see him get $100MM, but I also certainly don’t think it would be the worst signing we’ve seen in the past few offseasons.
- The Red Sox acquired Paul Byrd from the Indians. Boston will pay the remaining portion of Byrd’s salary. Byrd has been very good lately, and you can never have too much pitching depth. Not a bad move for Boston, in my opinion.
- The Twins were very active in discussions this week, though nothing surfaced as of yet. Minnesota claimed Jarrod Washburn off waivers from Seattle, but a deal wasn’t worked out. Boof Bonser and salary relief was originally thought to be the offer, but that report was later denied. Passing a chance to unload Washburn’s salary makes no sense to me. The Twins also claimed Alan Embree from Oakland, but he was pulled back.
- Freddy Garcia signed a minor-league contact with the Tigers. They must have liked what they saw at his audition. If he can return to be as effective as he was in his Chicago days, that would be a great signing. Nice low-risk move for Detroit.
- We’ve seen a lot of teams signing their young talent to long-term deals, but it looks like San Francisco ace Tim Lincecum will not be one of them. He’d prefer to go year-to-year.
- Minor moves happening around baseball: The Reds DFA’d David Ross, the Blue Jays released Shannon Stewart, and the Twins signed Bobby Kielty to a minor-league deal. The Giants DFA’d Jose Castillo, and Richie Sexson’s time in New York was cut short when he was released after just 35 plate appearances. The Rockies added another arm, signing Oscar Villareal.
- And now, for the draft-pick signings! Here are all the signings and not-signings teams made with their top picks this week: The White Sox signed Gordon Beckham, the Orioles signed Brian Matusz, the Padres signed Allan Dykstra, the Rangers signed Justin Smoak, the Giants signed Buster Posey, the Pirates signed Pedro Alvarez, the Royals signed Eric Hosmer, and the Reds not only signed Yonder Alonso, but Venezuelan outfielder Yorman Rodriguez as well. The Nationals failed to sign Aaron Crow, and the Yankees failed to sign Gerrit Cole.
- And to cap things off, since we just covered a bunch of guys who probably weren’t even alive when Jamie Moyer first started pitching in the Majors… he didn’t deny the possibility of pitching until he’s 50. He’s 45 right now with 11 wins and an ERA of 3.64, who knows?
Lincecum Prefers Year-To-Year Gamble
I know we’ve already linked to this story, but I wanted to dig in a little further. John Shea heard from Tim Lincecum‘s agent that the 24 year-old pitcher prefers year-to-year contracts for now. As far as I can tell, Lincecum will be a Super Two player. That means he will be arbitration-eligible four times, the first coming after the ’09 season.
Lincecum surely knows that recent long-term deals given to young starters are quite team-friendly if the pitcher stays healthy. Matt Cain and James Shields look like huge bargains, as was Dan Haren. Then again, Noah Lowry and Ian Snell are probably happy they signed on the dotted line. The going rate is $13-14MM for the pitcher’s three arbitration years, often with multiple club options involved.
Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, and Cole Hamels are examples of young aces on the year-to-year path. Felix will be especially interesting – he could reach free agency at age 25.
Joe Blanton might be their role model. In his first arb year, he earned $3.7MM. He could get $6.5MM for ’09 and $10MM for ’10. By taking the year-to-year gamble, he could increase his arb-year earnings by 50% and reach free agency as soon as possible. Of course, Blanton may have preferred a long-term deal all along.
Odds And Ends: Guerrero, Sheffield, Wells, Lincecum
Here are a few tidbits from around the ‘Net this morning.
- Vlad Guerrero wants to spend the rest of his days with the Angels. The question is, will the Halos pony up for a deal for the slugger’s latter years? They hold a $15 million club option ($3 million buyout) for next year, Vlad’s age-33 season. Will they work out an extension this off-season, or will they let Future Vlad and Future Reagins figure it out after ’09?
- Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe mentions a player who wouldn’t mind being traded: Gary Sheffield. The 39-year-old hasn’t enjoyed his time at DH, saying that he needs to play the field to be a vocal leader. A few obstacles stand in the way, including his limited no-trade clause, his chronically ailing shoulder, and the $19 million owed to him over the next two years. He’d easily clear waivers, though, and might have already. Tampa Bay, anyone?
- The Rockies have DFA’d Kip Wells to make room for Livan Hernandez. Wells had a 5.27 ERA over 27.1 innings for the Rockies.
- Looks like Tim Lincecum is content going with year to year contracts, according to his agent. The Giants have a monopoly on his services through the 2013 season.
- With Carlos Lee likely out for the season, Richard Justice urges the Astros to sign Barry Bonds.
- With the August 15th draftee signing deadling approaching, the Pirates have a major league deal on the table for first round pick Pedro Alvarez.
Sabean Explains Giants’ Trade Strategy
Giants GM Brian Sabean explained his trade deadline strategy to the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman.
- As you might expect, starters Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez are off-limits. The trio has 331 Ks already.
- The Giants aren’t interested in a rental, even though they are in the race at five games out.
- Sabean is likely to keep Bengie Molina and Randy Winn, but Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel, and Rich Aurilia are available.
Odds and Ends: Phillips, Chacon, Hewitt, Griffey
Random links for Tuesday.
- Interesting news out of Philly…Brett Myers accepted a minor league assignment. The Phils seem likely to acquire a starter this month.
- That was quick – the Mets designated Andy Phillips for assignment.
- Shawn Chacon cleared waivers and was released without pay, but the players’ association plans to file a grievance. It’s a matter of a million bucks.
- The Phillies signed first-round pick Anthony Hewitt, a high school infielder. He’ll get about $1.4MM.
- The Cards officially inked top pick Brett Wallace, a college third baseman.
- Three scouts watched Reds reliever David Weathers last night. Just throwing it out there, the Marlins are looking for a righthanded reliever.
- NPB Tracker discusses Yu Darvish.
- The Reds offered Ken Griffey Jr. to the Mariners, and they declined.
- Tom Verducci’s article about Tim Lincecum and pitching biomechanics is a must-read.
Odds and Ends: Astros, Reds, Mariners, Mets
Light day for baseball today, with only five games on the docket. Perhaps these links can fill the void.
- Despite the recent MLB.com article about the Astros’ hunt for starting pitching, two Houston Chronicle writers (Richard Justice and Brian McTaggart) are wondering whether the ‘Stros should wave the white flag.
- Interesting post from Larry Stone – he quotes John McLaren calling Erik Bedard a "100-pitch pitcher."
- Tim Lincecum on his birthday dinner plans: "Give me McDonald’s or Pizza Hut." Both fine choices.
- Joel Sherman busts out a few speculative paragraphs on potential trades for the Mets if they become sellers.
- Walt Jocketty denies Sherman’s report that he wants to clean house.
- RotoAuthority discusses expected win totals for starting pitchers.
Sabean Takes Lincecum/Cain Off The Table
The Aaron Rowand signing has led Brian Sabean to pull his young starters off the market (to the extent that they were ever available). Specifically, the idea of an Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum swap is dead.
The Giants are still looking for help at the infield corners and in the ‘pen. It’s hard to figure out what Sabean is doing – is he trying to win in 2008?