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Twins Do Not Expect Kenta Maeda To Return During Regular Season

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It’s unlikely the Twins will welcome back Kenta Maeda from the injured list during the regular season, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey informed reporters (including Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune and Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). While Maeda hasn’t suffered any kind of setback, it seems the organization is just running out of time to get him back on a major league mound.

Maeda underwent an internal brace Tommy John surgery last September, making it viable that he’d miss the entire 2022 campaign. He and the Twins had expressed hope he’d be able to make it back to the mound in September this year, with the internal brace procedure having a slightly more expedited recovery timeline (around 9-12 months) than a typical complete UCL reconstruction. Maeda has been throwing bullpen sessions but hasn’t yet started out on a minor league rehab assignment. He’d surely need multiple weeks to build back up in the minors, and with just five weeks remaining in the regular season, the Twins are apparently disinclined to push him back.

The mention of Maeda not returning in the regular season at least leaves open the possibility of a playoff comeback. Minnesota sits two games back of the Guardians in the AL Central race. They’re firmly in the mix for a postseason spot but far from a lock, so it’s possible Maeda won’t have any playoff games to target. If the Twins do reach the postseason, that’d extend the window for his potential return, although there’d be real risk in installing a player who hasn’t thrown a big league pitch in 14 months directly into a playoff series. It seems more likely that 2022 will wind up going down as a lost year entirely for Maeda. He’s under contract for a modest $3MM next season, and the Twins will presumably pencil him into the season-opening rotation if he has a normal offseason.

While the news on Maeda is a bit discouraging, the Twins provided positive updates on both right-hander Bailey Ober and outfielder Trevor Larnach (Park links). Ober, who has been out since June 1 with a groin strain, is set to begin a rehab assignment on Thursday. The club plans to deploy him as a multi-inning reliever for the stretch run, as building him back to starting would require too lengthy a rehab stint. Larnach, who has been out since undergoing core muscle surgery in late June, is also expected to start a rehab assignment this week.

Injury Notes: Gore, Bryant, Flaherty, Twins

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Newly acquired Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore will resume throwing this Friday, manager Dave Martinez told reporters this weekend (Twitter link via Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post). Gore, the former No. 3 overall draft pick and top pitching prospect in the sport, has been sidelined since July 25 due to elbow soreness. A previous MRI did not reveal structural damage, however, and the Nats were clearly comfortable with Gore’s medical records upon reviewing them in advance of the Juan Soto blockbuster that sent him from San Diego to Washington. Presumably, he’ll require a minor league rehab stint before jumping into the big league mix for the Nationals, but Friday’s throwing session will be an important first step to monitor as he begins that progression. Assuming good health, Gore looks poised to play a pivotal long-term role in the Nationals’ rotation, joining Josiah Gray (acquired in last summer’s Max Scherzer/Trea Turner deal) as a building block acquired at the deadline.

Gore absolutely overpowered opponents through early June, pitching to a 1.50 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate across the first 48 innings of his career. He’s been tagged for 27 runs in 22 innings since that time, however, working with diminished velocity along the way. Gore only pitched 50 1/3 innings last year (plus some work at the team’s Spring Training complex while going through a mechanical reset), so workload was always expected to be something of an issue in 2022. The Nationals have not made clear the extent to which they’ll monitor his innings moving forward.

Some more health situations to monitor around the league…

  • Rockies outfielder Kris Bryant is currently in a walking boot due to a case of plantar fasciitis, and there’s no timetable for his return to the field, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes within a broader look at another disappointing season for the Rockies. Colorado signed Bryant to a seven-year, $182MM contract over the winter but have thus far received just 42 games and 181 plate appearances from the former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP. Bryant’s power was MIA early in the year while playing through a back injury that required two IL stints, but he did bat .330/.398/.567 with 13 extra-base hits (five homers, eight doubles) in 108 plate appearances between his most recent trips to the injured list.
  • Cardinals righty Jack Flaherty believes issues with his mechanics led to his latest trip to the injured list, per MLB.com. The starter spent most of the season on the injured list due shoulder problems, returning to make three starts in June before returning to the 60-day IL. That means he’s ineligible to return until late August, though he has started throwing this week, trying to iron out those mechanical issues and potentially starting a rehab assignment soon. “You start doing things incorrectly for a while and then you repeat it over and over again — eventually something is going to flare up,” Flaherty says. “The goal was to clean things up and sharpen things up so that that doesn’t happen. That’s what we’ve been working on, so hopefully things stay that way.” If he can return before the season is out, he could provide a boost to the rotation down the stretch, though the Cards added Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery at the deadline to proactively address the situation.
  • The Twins expect righties Josh Winder and Bailey Ober to begin throwing bullpen sessions Tuesday, tweets Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. Winder has been widely regarded as a top-100 prospect this year and has given Minnesota 45 1/3 frames of 3.77 ERA ball in his big league debut, but shoulder troubles have slowed him of late (as has been the case in past seasons as well). Ober has made 27 starts for the Twins dating back to 2021, pitching to a 4.14 ERA along the way and serving as a generally solid back-of-the-rotation arm. He’s been out since June 1 due to a groin strain that proved more severe than originally believed. The Twins remain hopeful that each of Winder, Ober, outfielder Trevor Larnach and right-hander Kenta Maeda (recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery) will be able to return in September, tweets Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Meanwhile, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North tweets that right-hander Randy Dobnak will head out on a minor league rehab assignment Thursday, giving the Twins some additional depth on the horizon.

Trevor Larnach To Undergo Core Surgery, Expected To Miss Six Weeks

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Twins outfielder Trevor Larnach will undergo a bilateral surgical repair to address a core muscle strain, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey informed reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press). Falvey estimated it’ll be six weeks before Larnach is ready to return to the major league team.

It’s a setback for a Minnesota club holding a two-game edge over the Guardians in the AL Central standings. A former first-round draftee and top prospect, Larnach has appeared in 51 of the club’s 74 games. He’d settled in as manager Rocco Baldelli’s primary left fielder over the past few weeks and is amidst a decent season.

Through 180 plate appearances, Larnach owns a .231/.306/.406 line that checks in right around league average by measure of wRC+. While the left-handed hitter has continued to strike out at an alarming rate (31.7%), he’s walked at a quality 10% clip and collected 18 extra-base hits. Defensive metrics have judged his corner outfield work favorably as well, making for a nice start to the Oregon State product’s second season in the big leagues.

With Larnach out of action for the past few days, Baldelli has turned to utilityman Nick Gordon in left field. The 26-year-old has just a .250/.287/.365 line with a pair of homers through 56 games, making him an imperfect fit for regular action at a bat-first position. Alex Kirilloff is capable of working in the corner outfield, but he’s kicked to first base while Luis Arraez has moved to second after the club lost Jorge Polanco to the IL last week.

Twins Place Trevor Larnach On IL With Core Muscle Strain

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The Twins announced that outfielder Trevor Larnach has been placed on the injured list with a core muscle strain. Fellow outfielder Mark Contreras has been recalled to take his place on the active roster.

This is yet another challenge for a Twins team that has seen its outfield and DH mix deal with a number of injuries this season. Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez and Larnach himself have all missed time on the IL this year. Royce Lewis, blocked at shortstop by Carlos Correa, attempted to quickly convert himself into an outfielder in order to stay in the lineup before he, too, was sidelined by injury.

Larnach has seemed to take a step forward this year. The former first round pick made his MLB debut last year and hit a modest .223/.322/.350 for a wRC+ of 89. He’s added a bit more pop this season, slashing .231/.306/.406 for a 102 wRC+. His 10% walk rate is better than average, but it comes with a 31.7% strikeout rate, which is certainly not ideal.

After seeming to be running away with the AL Central in the season’s early going, the Guardians have caught up and made a race out of it. Cleveland’s .545 winning percentage is just barely ahead of Minnesota’s .542. With Byron Buxton dealing with a knee injury recently, the club may have to use an outfield of Max Kepler, Gilberto Celestino and Nick Gordon for the time being. The club hasn’t provided a timeline on Larnach’s absence.

Twins Reinstate Trevor Larnach, Place Cody Stashak On IL

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The Twins have made a one-for-one swap from their active roster to the injured list, per a team announcement. Outfielder Trevor Larnach has been reinstated after two weeks on the shelf with a groin strain. Heading in the other direction is right-handed reliever Cody Stashak, being placed on the IL with a right shoulder impingement.

The return of Larnach gives the Twins an embarrassment of riches in terms of their outfield mix. Prior to his injury, Larnach was hitting .313/.365/.448 for a wRC+ of 139. His absence has led to more playing time for Gilberto Celestino, who has stepped up admirably. Through 27 games on the season, he’s hitting .355/.420/.419, 154 wRC+. Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Kyle Garlick are also all playing well, with each having a wRC+ above 130.

One way to spread at-bats around to all of that crew would be to use the DH slot, though that would lead to less playing time for either Gary Sanchez or Ryan Jeffers, as Sanchez has been taking the bulk of DH time of late, with Jeffers behind the dish. Thanks in large part to this abundance of strong bats, the club is off to a 24-16 start to the year, with a 4 1/2-game lead over the White Sox in the AL Central.

For Stashak, this is his second IL stint of the year, as he began the season on the injured list due to right biceps tendinitis. Since returning, he’s thrown 16 1/3 innings for the Twins with a 3.86 ERA and 23.1% strikeout rate. His 26% ground ball rate is below average, but he’s yet to issue a single walk on the year. No timeline was provided for his injury, though shoulder issues for a pitcher are always at least somewhat concerning.

Twins Place Trevor Larnach On Injured List

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The Twins announced to various reporters, including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, that outfield Trevor Larnach has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a right groin strain. The move is retroactive to May 7. Catcher Jose Godoy has been recalled in a corresponding move.

The Twins have been fairly snakebit recently, with position players Kyle Garlick, Luis Arraez, Miguel Sano and now Larnach all heading to the injured list in the past week or so. There have also been other minor injuries to players that haven’t resulted in IL placements. (More on those in a moment.) Larnach made his MLB debut last year and struggled in his first taste of the big leagues, putting up a line of .223/.322/.350, 89 wRC+. His sophomore season has been a nice step forward so far, as he’s currently hitting .313/.365/.448. His strikeout rate is still quite high at 31.3%, but he’s still put up a wRC+ of 141 on the year so far. That progress will now have to be put on pause with this groin strain, though it doesn’t seem like it will be a length absence. Bench coach Jayce Tingler tells Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com that they’re hopeful he will only be out of action for about a week.

There’s even better news around the rest of the roster, though. Byron Buxton left yesterday’s game due to hip tightness, which was diagnosed as a low level strain, per Helfand. She notes that Buxton could return as soon as the Astros series, which begins on Tuesday. That will surely cause Minnesota fans to breathe a sigh of relief, as it seems they can avoid another big trough on the Buxton rollercoaster. In his career, he has frequently oscillated between flashes of brilliance on the field and extended stays on the injured list. So far this year, he’s hitting an incredible .278/.342/.722, producing a 211 wRC+. With Larnach on the shelf and Buxton temporarily unavailable, the club has an outfield of Max Kepler, Gilberto Celestino and Nick Gordon for today’s game.

In other good news, manager Rocco Baldelli tells Helfand that Luis Arraez and Dylan Bundy, both on the Covid-IL, are feeling better and flying back to Minneapolis today. The club will have an interesting decision to make once Bundy returns, as prospect Josh Winder has stepped into the rotation and has been excellent so far. Through his first 22 1/3 innings of MLB action, he has a 1.61 ERA, along with a 24.7% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate. With the activation of Sonny Gray yesterday, the club now has a rotation of Winder, Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Archer and Chris Paddack. With Bundy returning, they could go for a six-man rotation or perhaps bump someone to a long relief role out of the bullpen. Bailey Ober could also re-enter the mix soon, as he went on the 10-day IL with a groin strain April 29.

Twins Place Alex Kirilloff On Injured List

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April 15: An MRI did not reveal any new damage for Kirilloff, Baldelli tells reporters (Twitter link via Helfand). Kirilloff received a cortisone injection to help with the inflammation and discomfort. Baldelli expressed some optimism that eventually, Kirilloff should be able to “manage and do some maintenance” on the wrist while continuing to play through the issue.

That’s not a terribly encouraging update, though it’s at least good news that there’s no new injury at play for the promising young outfielder. Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com adds that it does not appear Kirilloff will be shut down for too long.

April 13: The Twins have placed outfielder Alex Kirilloff on the 10-day injured list due to inflammation in his surgically repaired right wrist. Fellow outfielder Trevor Larnach is up from Triple-A St. Paul in his place.

It’s a concerning development for the Twins and Kirilloff, whose 2021 season ended after he underwent surgery to repair a torn ligament in that same wrist. Manager Rocco Baldelli told Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and other reporters that the discomfort in Kirilloff’s wrist didn’t pop up after one particular swing but just slowly crept back up (Twitter link).

Kirilloff, 24, was the No. 15 overall draft pick back in 2016 and ranked among the game’s 100 best prospects from 2019-21 as he climbed the minor league ranks. MLB.com rated him as the sport’s ninth-best prospect heading into the 2019 season. Kirilloff made his Major League debut for the Twins in the 2020 postseason and made his regular-season debut in 2021.

After a brutal first eight games in terms of results, the hard contact Kirilloff had been making began translating into production. From April 30 through the time of his season-ending IL placement last year, he slashed .270/.322/.460 with eight homers, ten doubles and a triple in 205 plate appearances. Kirilloff actually sustained the wrist injury in early May, which resulted in a nearly three-week stay on the injured list. He returned and remained generally productive, but his power began to dip, and the pain in his wrist eventually became too much to play through. Minnesota announced on July 21 that Kirilloff would undergo surgery.

The obvious hope for the Twins is that the injury this time around will prove to be nothing more than inflammation, though Kirilloff will undergo further evaluation before determining the full extent of the injury. The short-term impact of the injury is notable, but the most important issue for the Twins and for Kirilloff will be to put the injury behind him once and for all — to whatever extent that’s possible. Kirilloff has the makings of a potential building block for the Twins, evidenced by his lofty draft status, prospect rankings and his career .318/.366/.503 slash in the minors.

In place of Kirilloff, the Twins will turn to the 25-year-old Larnach. Like Kirilloff, he’s a former first-round pick (20th overall in 2018) and top-100 prospect who has the potential to serve as a key lineup piece for years to come. Larnach is a career .292/.375/.451 hitter in the minors and got out to a strong start in his big league career in 2021, with his initial call-up also coming as the result of a Kirilloff injury. Larnach hit .262/.361/.445 with seven homers and nine doubles through his first 191 plate appearances, but he fell into a catastrophic late slump and batted just .156/.255/.188 over his final 110 trips to the plate.

Larnach had a big Spring Training, hitting .294/.400/.706 with a pair of homers and a double in 20 plate appearances. He’s out to a poor start in St. Paul so far (2-for-19), but he’ll now be thrust back into the big league spotlight and hope to recapture that early-2021 form. He’ll share time in the outfield with fellow prospect Gilberto Celestino and former first-rounder Nick Gordon, who got the nod in left field today with Kirilloff heading to the injured list.

Twins Notes: Larnach, Miranda, Rotation, Winder

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The Twins announced this afternoon they’ve optioned corner outfielder Trevor Larnach and infield prospect Jose Miranda to Triple-A St. Paul. Neither player will break camp with the big league club.

Larnach played in just under half of Minnesota’s games as a rookie last season. The former first-rounder and top prospect only managed a .223/.322/.350 line in 301 plate appearances, striking out at a 34.6% clip. Those swing-and-miss concerns resulted in the Twins optioning Larnach back to Triple-A in August, and he’ll start this season in the minors as well.

With a projected regular outfield of Alex Kirilloff, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler, there weren’t everyday at-bats to afford to Larnach early on. The 25-year-old is still a valuable long-term piece for the organization, and they’d evidently prefer to get him regular run in the minors as opposed to having him start the year as a part-time player.

That’s also the case for Miranda, a 23-year-old who broke out with a huge .344/.401/.572 line between the minors’ top two levels. That earned him a place on the back half of Baseball America’s and FanGraphs’ Top 100 Prospects lists this winter, but he’ll head back to St. Paul to start the year. Minnesota has offseason acquisition Gio Urshela at third base, with Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez options at the keystone and designated hitter. Miranda, added to the 40-man roster in November, figures to get his first big league look at some point this year. That’ll be put on hold by the Twins enviable collection of infield depth.

Strong as Minnesota’s position player group looks, the team’s rotation is still a major question mark. The Twins entered the offseason likely needing to add three starters from outside the organization. They’ve done so, acquiring Sonny Gray from the Reds and signing free agents Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. Each of Bundy and Archer comes with durability and performance questions related to tough 2021 seasons, though.

The Twins were recently connected to A’s starters Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea, both of whom would still be marked upgrades to the starting staff. The latest reports suggest Oakland could elect to keep both of those hurlers, and Montas in particular now seems unlikely to be moved before Opening Day. The Twins were linked to Montas/Manaea before they signed Archer on Monday, and it now appears they’ll break camp with a rotation of Gray, Bailey Ober, Archer, Bundy and rookie Joe Ryan.

In an appearance on SKOR North’s Mackey & Judd podcast this week, Darren Wolfson noted the Twins talks with the A’s had “stagnated.” Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press hears the A’s never made a formal ask for anyone from Minnesota in Montas and Manaea discussions. Wolfson suggests the Twins could be willing to revisit discussions on Montas and Manaea at some point, but Minnesota chief baseball officer Derek Falvey indicated this week the team is content with their existing rotation options. “We’ll always stay open-minded to everything,” Falvey said about the possibility of acquiring another starter (via Helfand). “I know I always say that, but that’s true. It’s just at this late stage as we approach Opening Day, it feels like the group is probably in this room.”

Like every team, the Twins will need to rely on more than five starters throughout the course of a 162-game season. Righty Josh Winder, Baseball America’s #6 prospect in the organization, would appear to be the top depth option out of the gate. Winder has yet to make his MLB debut, but he pitched to a 1.98 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates (31.3% and 4.8%, respectively) in 10 Double-A starts last season. The Twins could start him in the St. Paul rotation, but manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com) today they’re open to carrying him with the big league club as a long relief option.

The organization no doubt views Winder as a starting pitcher long-term, but keeping him in the MLB bullpen could allow him to stay stretched out and get his feet wet in the big leagues. Given the rather thin rotation, the VMI product figures to be starting games before long.

Twins Option Trevor Larnach

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The Twins announced this evening they’ve optioned corner outfielder Trevor Larnach to Triple-A St. Paul. Utilityman Nick Gordon has been recalled to take his place on the active roster.

Minnesota selected Larnach to the big leagues in early May. A 2018 first-round pick, Larnach rose rather quickly through the minors with huge performances up through Double-A. Along the way, he cemented himself as one of the Twins’ most promising prospects — and indeed, as one of the top farmhands in the sport. Entering the year, Baseball America placed Larnach inside the game’s top 40 minor league talents.

The hope was that Larnach and/or fellow top prospect Alex Kirilloff would hit the ground running to cement themselves as potential everyday options alongside Byron Buxton and Max Kepler in the Minnesota outfield. Neither player has yet tapped into their considerable offensive upside, though. Kirilloff hit .251/.299/.423 over 231 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending wrist injury. Larnach has stayed healthy, but he’s hit at a below-average level (.223/.322/.350) for the first time in his professional career. He started the season well, but Larnach’s been mired in a dreadful slump of late, with just two multi-hit games since July 5.

To his credit, Larnach has continued to show plenty of patience at the plate this season, as he did throughout his minor league tenure. The 24-year-old has walked in a quality 10.3% of his plate appearances, swinging at a lower-than-average 28% of pitches outside the strike zone while attacking pitches in the zone at a near average rate. While Larnach hasn’t chased much, he’s simply made too little contact when he has swung. His 62.9% contact rate is the third-lowest mark (above only Mike Zunino’s and Javier Báez’s) among the 228 hitters with 250+ plate appearances this season. That’s led to a massive 34.6% strikeout rate that’s fourth-highest (lower only than Zunino’s, Bobby Dalbec’s and Báez’s) in that group.

While Zunino and Báez have offset their huge strikeout totals with huge power and plus defense, Larnach hasn’t offered that sort of complementary production. He’s always been seen as a bat-first prospect, so the lack of defensive value isn’t a surprise. But Larnach has hit just seven home runs in 301 plate appearances and has a below-average .127 isolated power (slugging minus batting average).

He’s hit the ball solidly, but it hasn’t been the elite contact quality necessary to succeed with a strikeout rate at its current level. According to Statcast, Larnach has made hard contact (defined as an exit velocity of 95 MPH or higher) on 41.1% of his batted balls. That’s above the 35.5% league average, but it’s not at the level of Zunino (48.9%) or Báez (45.6%). Similarly, Larnach’s average exit velocity and barrel rate are right around the 60th percentiles. Zunino has an 89th percentile average exit velocity and a 100th percentile barrel rate, while Báez sits in the 72nd and 86th percentiles in those respective metrics.

More simply put, hitters with that kind of swing-and-miss need to be among the best in the league at driving the ball when they do make contact. Larnach has been above-average but not elite in that regard.

Obviously, Larnach’s first crack at the majors hasn’t gone as he or the organization would’ve hoped. That said, it’s much too early to write off the possibility of him figuring things out. He’s a career .306/.384/.473 hitter in the minors, where his strikeout rate is a far more manageable 21.8%. And he was making the jump to the majors this year with essentially no Triple-A experience. Last year’s canceled minor league season — coupled with the delayed start to the 2021 minors campaign — has kept Larnach to all of three career games at that level.

He’ll head to St. Paul for what’ll presumably be a more extended Triple-A run. If he performs at anything close to his level up through Double-A, he figures to get another look in the big leagues at some point soon. The Twins are playing out the stretch on a disappointing season, and they’re certainly holding out hope Larnach can contribute to a 2022 team they’re expecting to compete in the AL Central.

Latest Roster Moves From Twins, Orioles

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The Twins announced a trio of roster moves today. Right-hander Cody Stashak has been optioned to Triple-A, while Derek Law takes his place in the bullpen. Law had to be added to the 40-man roster, so infielder Travis Blankenhorn was designated for assignment.

After proving himself a solid option out of the bullpen for the Twins with 40 innings of 3.15 ERA baseball from 2019-20, Stashak has stumbled badly to start the season. Stashak is still missing bats at a good clip, striking out a robust 36.5 percent of hitters, but his walk rate has skyrocketed to 13.5 percent as well. Fielding Independent Pitching suggest decent work with a 4.20 FIP, but in terms of real world production, Stashak has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings.

If this is the end of Blankenhorn’s Twins’ tenure, it will be a somewhat ignominious one. The 24-year-old appeared in one game this season, pinch-running in extra-innings and scoring a run. He’d go on to make an error in the bottom of the inning on a play that would have ended the game. The A’s beat the Twins a batter later when Luis Arraez followed up Blankenhorn’s blunder with a throwing error of his own. Blankenhorn was a third round draft pick of the Twins in the 2015 draft, and he obviously has more to offer a Major League club than he’s had the opportunity to show this season.

If someone puts in a claim for Blankenhorn, it’ll be the second player lost on waivers by the Twins this week. The Orioles claimed left-hander Brandon Waddell off waivers from the Twins today, per Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). He has been assigned to Triple-A. Waddell was designated for assignment by the Twins yesterday to make room on the 40-man roster for Trevor Larnach.

In order to make the claim, the Orioles designated Jay Flaa for assignment, notes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports. Flaa logged 1 1/3 scoreless on April 27th for the Orioles in his only big league action of his career.

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