Diamondbacks Sign Zack Greinke
TUESDAY: Arizona has announced the signing.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has a slew of details on the contract. (All links go to Twitter.) Greinke will receive a $18MM signing bonus and salaries of $31MM (2016-18), $31.5MM (2019), and $32MM (2020-21).
The overall valuation of the deal sits at $193,849,298, per Heyman, which accounts for the fact that $62.5MM of it is deferred. Greinke will also receive a $2MM trade bonus if he’s dealt once, though of course there is no-trade protection as well, and will donate one percent of his annual salary to the club’s charity.
SUNDAY: Greinke will receive a limited no-trade provision as part of his deal, Heyman tweets.
FRIDAY: In a shocker, the Diamondbacks have agreed to terms with free agent starter Zack Greinke, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. The contract is for six years, according to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman (on Twitter). The deal is pending a physical. Greinke is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Greinke will receive an amazing $206.5MM over six years, tweets Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. While that will include some deferred money (via Rosenthal), the total comes just short of David Price‘s $217MM deal with the Red Sox, which was the largest ever for a pitcher. (Rosenthal tweets that $60MM or more is deferred, and the present-day value of Greinke’s deal is around $190MM. Heyman tweets that the deferred money that will be paid within five years after the deal expires.) And Greinke’s contract is for only six years, compared to Price’s seven (although Price’s contains an opt-out, and Greinke’s does not, as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets). Greinke’s $34.42MM AAV will be baseball’s largest ever, blowing away both Price and Miguel Cabrera, who got $31MM.
Rosenthal had reported earlier Friday evening that the Diamondbacks were pursuing Greinke, and the Diamondbacks had previously been connected to a number of high-profile arms, including Johnny Cueto, Kenta Maeda and others. Still, the fact that they’re set to sign an ultra-high-end star like Greinke comes as a surprise, particularly since the top two bidders seemed to be two of Arizona’s division rivals, the Dodgers and Giants.
Still, Greinke to the Diamondbacks makes a fair amount of sense, and not just because of the team’s new ten-figure TV deal. The $206.5MM total for Greinke is three times larger than the Snakes’ biggest-ever free agent contract (last year’s $68.5MM deal for Yasmany Tomas), but Greinke, in addition to being an elite talent, should fit well with what they already have built.
As FanGraphs’ August Fagerstrom pointed out earlier this week, Arizona already qualified as a sleeper team for next season. The Diamondbacks already had a solid offense headed by two top talents in Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, and an excellent defense headed by Pollock, Nick Ahmed and Ender Inciarte. The chief reason they only won 79 games last season was their pitching staff, which rated 27th in MLB in fWAR. Their rotation already looked likely to improve somewhat next season with a full season of Patrick Corbin, but adding Greinke provides a much bigger shot in the arm. With Greinke in the fold, the Diamondbacks obviously have a much better chance of contending — and not only because of the direct impact Greinke will have on their roster, but also because they’ll be keeping Greinke from pitching for one of their rivals.
Greinke would, clearly, be an impact addition for any team. While he isn’t likely to repeat his 1.66 ERA next season, even with an outstanding defense behind him, he’s an elite pitcher by any standard — he pitched 222 2/3 innings in 2015 and struck out 200 batters, reaching that threshold for the fifth time in his career. His 1.6 BB/9 was good for fifth in the Majors, and he also did a terrific job limiting home runs. Via FanGraphs linear weights, his changeup ranked as the best in baseball, and both his fastball and slider were among the ten best. He also hit a relatively robust .224/.232/.343 and won his second consecutive Gold Glove award.
The Diamondbacks’ surprising deal with Greinke leaves its neighbors to the west on the outside looking in. The Dodgers were uncomfortable giving Greinke a sixth year, the Los Angeles Times’ Bill Shaikin tweets. They offered him about $31MM per year over five years, Heyman reports (again via Twitter), but they were uncomfortable guaranteeing a sixth year to a pitcher who’s already 32. With Greinke off the board, the Dodgers are expected to bid for Cueto, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. Meanwhile, the Giants could turn to other starting pitchers, perhaps Jeff Samardzija.
Greinke’s decision to opt out of his contract with the Dodgers unsurprisingly turned out to be a very lucrative one. He effectively declined three years and $71MM more from Los Angeles, and now will receive three times as much over only twice as many seasons. Also, as the Bay Area News Group’s Andrew Baggarly tweets, Greinke will be taxed at a significantly lower rate in Arizona than in California.
Once the deal is complete, the Diamondbacks will forfeit the 13th overall pick in next year’s draft, since Greinke rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer. The Dodgers will receive a pick at the end of the first round.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NL West Notes: Kemp, Ross, Greinke, D’Backs, Gallardo
The Padres have been shopping Matt Kemp and asking about shortstops, sources from rival teams tell Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). The Padres “may be reluctant to eat a lot of money” in such a deal, which could make things tricky given Kemp’s poor 2015 season and the $72MM owed to him through 2019. It isn’t clear if San Diego would be willing to attach highly sought-after righty Tyson Ross to Kemp, which FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal speculated about last month as a way to entice a club into taking Kemp off the Padres’ hands. Here’s some more from around the NL West…
- The Diamondbacks‘ surprising signing of Zack Greinke was conceived and concluded in under 12 hours, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. GM Dave Stewart tells Nightengale that the club had only discussing Greinke “in passing” before owner Ken Kendrick and president Derrick Hall gave Stewart the go-ahead on Friday morning.
- With so much committed to Greinke, however, the Diamondbacks are already pushing the limits of their payroll, a source tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The team is thus looking at trades to further bolster its pitching, rather than free agent signings. As such, Piecoro reports in a tweet that D’Backs people aren’t too optimistic about their chances of signing Mike Leake.
- One rival executive thinks the Diamondbacks will be busy at the Winter Meetings, telling Piecoro that “If they’re going to sign Greinke, I would expect them to try to go get more.”
- The Dodgers are expected to meet with Yovani Gallardo‘s agents during the Winter Meetings, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets, and the free agent righty could be a plan-B option for L.A. after missing out on other pitching targets. The Dodgers are on the verge of landing one new arm, as they’re close to an agreement with Hisashi Iwakuma.
- The Rockies are “open-minded” about trading outfielders like Carlos Gonzalez or Charlie Blackmon, sources tell FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link).
Diamondbacks Notes: Greinke, Leake, Trades
Even after agreeing to terms with free agent ace Zack Greinke on a gigantic, gutsy contract, the Diamondbacks aren’t through looking for pitching help. There is still mutual interest between the Diamondbacks and free agent starter Mike Leake, Diamondbacks beat writer Jack Magruder tweets. The Giants are also still contenders for Leake’s services, Magruder notes — even though they, too, have committed a big chunk of change to a top free agent starter in Jeff Samardzija. Here’s more from out of Arizona.
- While the Diamondbacks are interested in acquiring another pitcher, the amount of money they’ve committed to Greinke might mean they’re more likely to turn to the trade market, MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert writes. It’s very unlikely that they would trade A.J. Pollock, Gilbert writes, but they could deal from their collection of infielders.
- Diamondbacks baseball isn’t usually a burning topic in December, even in Phoenix, but the Greinke deal changes that, Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic writes. It makes them a contender and it makes them relevant, and it also helps weaken their NL West foes in Los Angeles. It also reflects a change in approach for the Snakes, who lately have avoided the risk associated with expensive long-term deals.
More Reaction And Analysis Of The Zack Greinke Signing
We’ve already published some early reactions last night to Zack Greinke‘s six-year, $206.5MM contract with the Diamondbacks, yet the baseball world has plenty more to say about the industry-shocking deal. Here’s some more opinions and news…
- It will take more than just Greinke to make the D’Backs the NL West favorites in 2016, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello writes. That said, the team was on track to improve even without Greinke, and his addition obviously greatly upgrades the rotation, which was Arizona’s greatest need.
- The Dodgers made a curious choice in not spending more to land Greinke, FOX Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi opines. While Arizona surpassed all industry expectations for Greinke’s contract, the Dodgers have the financial might to never be outbid on any player they truly want, and the fact that they were willing to offer Greinke a five-year, $155MM deal indicates that there was legitimately interest on Los Angeles’ part. With Greinke gone, the Dodgers now have to spend either money or prospects to acquire another ace.
- Had the Dodgers been willing to part with some top prospects, they could’ve landed Cole Hamels from the Phillies last season and already had another long-term ace on hand to cushion the blow if Greinke left, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal notes. While the Dodgers, like any team, are loath to move their best minor leaguers, Rosenthal argues that L.A. is in unique position to instantly reload the farm system given how much they’ve spent to dominate the international talent market.
- The Dodgers’ offer already put them beyond their comfort zone, and the team believed they were on the verge of welcoming Greinke back, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times writes. The Dodgers thought “the issue was more about how to structure a deal and less about whether there would be one.” For Dodger fans, this is the clearest sign yet that the team wants to get a younger roster, as it is “terrified” of being hamstrung by too many unreliable veterans on huge contracts, a la the Yankees and Phillies of recent years.
- Despite this fear, the Dodgers don’t really have all that many long-term salary commitments, as ESPN’s Buster Olney points out in his latest subscriber-only column. Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Brett Anderson and Alex Guerrero all come off the books after 2017 while Adrian Gonzalez, Yasiel Puig, Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy are all free agents after 2018. Like Morosi and Shaikin, Olney points out that the Dodgers now face extra pressure from their fans as, after years of exorbitant spending, a star player has now left for financial reasons.
- From the Diamondbacks’ perspective, Olney reports that some around the industry feel the club could eventually have to cut costs due to the signing, as the Snakes did for spending so freely in the years leading up to their 2001 World Series title. Still, Arizona’s payroll is greatly helped by the fact that Paul Goldschmidt‘s contract has become a huge bargain.
- Other teams aren’t pleased with the signing, ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets, noting that the D’Backs have received almost $80MM in revenue sharing payments over the last three years. (As other writers have responded in other tweets, however, it seems like teams would be just as upset if the D’Backs pocketed the money instead of spending it on players.)
- With the Greinke market escalating to such incredible heights, Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle argues that the Giants were fortunate to get out of the hunt rather than commit so much money to a 32-year-old pitcher. Jenkins feels the Giants could pivot to signing both Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija, just to increase the heat on the Dodgers. One of those steps has already been taken, as the Giants agreed to a five-year deal with Samardzija today.
Reactions To And Effects Of The Zack Greinke Deal
Here’s a quick roundup of links on the Diamondbacks’ very surprising, and extremely expensive, $206.5MM pact with Zack Greinke.
- Diamondbacks executives Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart met with free agent starting pitcher Mike Leake on Thursday, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. The Snakes remain interested in signing Leake even after agreeing to terms with Greinke, suggesting that they’ll continue to be active on the market for starting pitching despite the huge splash they’ve already made.
- Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija stand to benefit from Greinke’s signing with Arizona, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. The signing leaves the market thinner, and the Dodgers, Giants and Cardinals are all still looking for starting pitching.
- Greinke’s hefty deal was an appropriate one for a player who ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider-only) sees as the best free agent starter available this offseason. Greinke’s offspeed stuff, brilliant command and feel for pitch sequencing make him a solid bet to continue to be successful even if his velocity declines, making him as close to Greg Maddux as there exists in today’s game. Law does agree with the Diamondbacks’ apparent self-assessment that they still need another starter, however, and argues that they’re still a few pieces short of being real contenders.
- Greinke’s huge new contract is a risky but bold move for the Diamondbacks, who have suddenly made themselves relevant in the NL West, Yahoo! Sports’ Tim Brown writes. The deal gives the Diamondbacks a bona fide ace to add to their collection of younger talent. It does, however, make their success in the future fairly heavily dependent upon the success of the contract, given that Greinke’s astronomical annual salaries will take up what will likely be huge chunks of the Diamondbacks’ relatively modest payrolls.
Dodgers Notes: Greinke, Cueto, Madson
Zack Greinke‘s blockbuster new deal with the Diamondbacks broke Friday evening, so there will be undoubtedly be many more reactions emerging throughout the weekend. For now, though, here’s a collection of news and reactions that focuses a team that didn’t sign him — the Dodgers.
- With Greinke no longer available, the Dodgers are reaching out to the rest of the pitching market, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. They spoke today to representatives of Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and Scott Kazmir, and a source tells Rosenthal they’re “intrigued” by Cueto. Earlier today, Rosenthal tweeted that Hisashi Iwakuma also figured prominently on the Dodgers’ list of backup plans.
- The Dodgers have been forthright about their intentions of building good teams in 2017 and beyond, so perhaps it’s no surprise that they didn’t top the Diamondbacks’ winning bid, Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles writes. They did make a substantial offer of five years and $155MM, but they didn’t want to push themselves financially with an even riskier, lengthier deal. Since the Dodgers hired Andrew Friedman, Saxon writes, they’ve focused on making smart business moves, and perhaps in their minds, signing a thirtysomething pitcher to a boundary-pushing deal wouldn’t have qualified as one.
- “We made a very strong offer to retain Zack, but clearly he found a deal that fit better for him and his family,” says Friedman in a statement released by the Dodgers. “We are now hard at work on our alternatives.”
- The Dodgers are also trying to sign righty reliever Ryan Madson, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick tweets. The 35-year-old Madson is coming off an excellent comeback season with the Royals (with a 2.13 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9), and he would figure to be an asset in the Dodgers’ bullpen. Obviously, though, signing Madson right now would come as little comfort to Dodgers fans upset about losing Greinke.
Diamondbacks In Pursuit Of Zack Greinke
The Diamondbacks are pursuing Zack Greinke, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Two other NL West teams, the Giants and Dodgers, had been widely reported to be the top two contenders for Greinke, but it appears another team has entered the fray.
This offseason, the Diamondbacks have shown interest in a variety of starters, including Johnny Cueto, Kenta Maeda, Mike Leake and Shelby Miller, but it’s a bit surprising to hear that they’re a possible contender for an up-market option like Greinke. Obviously, Greinke won’t be cheap — MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently predicted he’d get a six-year, $189MM deal. That total would be almost three times more expensive the Diamondbacks’ largest-ever contract (Yasmany Tomas‘ $68.5MM deal, signed last November), and the team has recently expressed skepticism about long contracts for pitchers. They did, however, reportedly offer Cueto a six-year deal worth $120MM. Also, the Los Angeles News Group’s J.P. Hoornstra tweets that the team does have the money to sign Greinke.
Olney’s Latest: Price, Greinke, Carrasco, Shark, Cubs, Heyward
ESPN’s Buster Olney begins his latest Insider-only blog post by offering his take on David Price‘s deal with the Red Sox. Olney notes that while the blame for Boston’s failure to retain Jon Lester as its ace lies on owner John Henry and not former GM Ben Cherington, Henry deserves credit for recognizing the mistake and going to the measures necessary to bolster his rotation. Rival evaluators have wondered to Olney how Price will adapt to losing his velocity as he ages, but for the short-term, Price gives Boston exactly what it needed — an ace to front the rotation and shift names like Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez and the injury-prone Clay Buchholz down the rotation.
Some more highlights from Olney’s column…
- Price’s signing creates a perfect storm for Zack Greinke, who now stands alone as the top free agent starter on the market with a pair of division rivals — the Giants and Dodgers — bidding against one another to secure his services. One person close to the situation suggested to Olney that Greinke could land a five-year deal worth $165MM (an average annual value of $33MM), which meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Jayson Stark that said Greinke could take a five-year deal if it meant a sizable increase over Price’s AAV.
- The Indians have been listening to offers on their young starters, but the price tags for pitchers like Price and Greinke have underscored the value of controllable, young arms like Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, leading to a perhaps exorbitant asking price. For instance, the Indians asked the Giants for a package that included both Brandon Belt and Joe Panik in exchange for Carrasco in recent talks, according to Olney. While some Giants fans may recoil at the notion, Olney writes that with pitchers such as J.A. Happ commanding $36MM over three years, Carrasco’s four-year, $22MM contract and two club options come with incredibly high value. Carrasco talks between the two sides are dead at this point, he adds.
- The Cubs have been positioning themselves for a run at Jeff Samardzija since before Price made his final decision. The Giants are among the other clubs with interest in Samardzija, according to Olney, who wonders if the teams that missed out on both Price and (eventually) Greinke will then check in with Johnny Cueto as an alternative.
- The Cardinals have at least spoken to Greinke, but there’s no indication that they’re prepared to compete with the Dodgers and Giants for his services, making it seem unlikely that they’ll emerge as a late dark-horse candidate in his market.
- The Cubs weren’t comfortable with the notion of roughly $55MM per season for a pair of pitchers each season for the foreseeable future, referring to a potential combo of Price and Lester. Olney calls a swap of Jorge Soler and Braves right-hander Shelby Miller a potential plan B for Chicago, which would then free up the club to make a run at Jason Heyward.
Details, Reactions And Effects: The David Price Deal
Here’s a roundup of reactions to and news about David Price‘s seven-year, $217MM pact with the Red Sox.
- The signing came together partly as a result of maneuvering regarding Price’s fellow free agent starting pitcher Zack Greinke, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes (Twitter links). The Dodgers and Giants wanted Greinke to make a decision, while Greinke wanted to know where the Red Sox stood. The Sox, who had increased their offer to Price yesterday, wanted him to come to a decision so they knew whether to turn their attention to Greinke or possibly others.
- The Cardinals made the second-best offer to Price, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. Their seven-year offer was, however, worth $30MM less than that of the Red Sox. The Cubs also met with Price, but did not extend an actual offer.
- The Red Sox’ willingness to offer a deal with no deferred money helped persuade Price to sign quickly, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. (Of course, it must have also helped that the Red Sox’ offer was so much more lucrative than anyone else’s.) Price’s contract contrasts with the seven-year, $210MM deal Max Scherzer got last offseason, for example — although the dollar figures appear similar, Scherzer’s deal contains plenty of deferred compensation that reduces the deal’s present-day value. (Price’s deal also includes an opt-out after three years, while Scherzer’s does not.)
- Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says the team is likely done making significant moves, reports John Tomase of WEEI.com. “We’ll be open-minded going into the Winter Meetings,” Dombrowski says. “We’ll see what happens over the next few days leading into that, but be in a position that I think our major moves are done. But when you go to the Winter Meetings, you can never tell what happens.” In addition to reaching an agreement with Price this offseason, the Red Sox have, of course, traded for closer Craig Kimbrel and signed outfielder Chris Young.
- Like Nightengale, Rosenthal also writes that Boston “blew away the field” with their offer. Rosenthal also notes that Price’s successes after being traded from the Rays to the Tigers and then the Blue Jays might have helped convince former Tigers exec Dombrowski that Price could succeed in a tough market.
- Price’s 2016 salary will add to a Sox payroll that appears likely to result in a large luxury tax penalty, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. They could end up with a $215MM payroll for luxury tax purposes, which would result in a bill of about $9MM — 30% of the amount they spend over the $189MM threshold.
- The $31MM average annual value of Price’s contract isn’t a bad one for a large-payroll team like the Red Sox, and Price fits the Sox’ needs perfectly, writes ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider-only). Price immediately becomes by far the Red Sox’ best starter, and his combination of relative youth and good offspeed stuff suggests that he should age relatively gracefully in the next several seasons. Price’s addition should also help the team move Joe Kelly to a relief role for which he’s well suited. And signing Price, rather than, say, Greinke helps the Red Sox keep the 12th overall pick in next year’s draft, since Price wasn’t eligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded at midseason.
- Price is a true ace, but the Red Sox are taking on lots of risk with his contract, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post writes. Lengthy deals for pitchers frequently turn out to be troublesome, and if Price doesn’t take advantage of his opt-out, the last four years of his contract could become a headache. Also, Svrluga writes, Price (who has a 5.12 career ERA in 63 1/3 playoff innings) still must prove he can step up in the postseason.
Greinke Likely To Decide Between Giants, Dodgers This Week
DEC. 2: ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that while Greinke’s preference is a six-year deal at an AAV north of Price, he’s also open to a five-year pact at a considerably higher AAV than he’d receive on a six-year contract.
DEC. 111:15pm: Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that a source close to the situation says Greinke will decide within the next 48 hours. Bowden adds that he expects Greinke to land a six-year deal worth $32MM annually, which would mean a $192MM total investment.
5:08pm: News of David Price‘s deal with the Red Sox is still fresh in the air, but another major decision may be relatively close, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that Zack Greinke could decide on his next contract “soon,” labeling it a matter of Dodgers vs. Giants, with a five- to six-year deal being the expectation. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds (Twitter link) that a Greinke decision is expected this week, noting that he, too, hears the Dodgers and Giants stand alone as the finalists. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Greinke is seeking an AAV that exceeds Price, so he could come in at $31.5MM to $32MM annually.
Greinke, like Price, finished runner-up in his league’s Cy Young voting this season despite the best single-season ERA mark by a qualified pitcher since Greg Maddux in 1995. He’s spent the past three seasons in L.A., working to a combined 2.30 ERA across 602 2/3 innings. Recently, Crasnick reported that the market for Greinke was “quietly heating up,” listing San Francisco and Los Angeles as the primary teams that were said to be seeking clarity in their pursuit of Greinke.
The fact that two division rivals are the top suitors for Greinke must be music to the ears of both the pitchers and his representatives at Excel Sports Management. However many wins either teams feels that Greinke can add to their future totals, the view could be made that failing to sign him will instead add those wins to the closest rival’s total, possibly increasing each team’s willingness to spend.
Both clubs are known to be seriously interested in Greinke, but Dodgers ownership partner Magic Johnson told Yahoo’s Tim Brown today that Greinke was the team’s “No. 1 priority” this offseason (Twitter link).