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MLB Cancels Planned Series In Mexico City And Puerto Rico

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Major League Baseball formally announced today that the Diamondbacks/Padres series that had been planned to take place on April 18-19 in Mexico City and the Marlins/Mets series that was set for April 28-30 in San Juan, Puerto Rico have been canceled. The series will be held in Phoenix and Miami, as the D-backs and Marlins had been designated the “home” team for each of those neutral-location sets of games.

It was something of a fait accompli that both series would be postponed at the very least. Major League Baseball has already pushed back the season opener until at least mid-May, making it clear that those games wouldn’t be played as scheduled. Still, it’s a tough break for baseball fans in Mexico City and in San Juan that they won’t have the opportunity to attend those games, just as the organizations and players are likely disheartened not to play in such unique settings.

“It breaks our heart we won’t be playing in front of the incredible fans in Mexico this year, but health and safety come first,” the D-backs said in a statement announcing the cancellation of the series.

There’s yet to be an indication as to what will happen with Major League Baseball’s London Series between the Cardinals and Cubs, which is scheduled to take place on June 13-14. Those contests are technically designated as “home” games for the Cardinals, so if the league takes a similar course of action, they’ll be postponed and held in St. Louis at a later date.

10 NL West Pitchers Looking For Bounce-Back Seasons

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MLBTR’s preseason series ends with National League West pitchers looking to bounce back in 2020. These 10 talented hurlers are hoping to get off the mat after difficult seasons…

Alex Wood, LHP, Dodgers:

The 29-year-old Wood is back in Los Angeles, where he experienced a great deal of success in 2015-18, after a Murphy’s Law season spent in Cincinnati. A back injury limited Wood to 35 2/3 innings of 5.80 ERA/6.38 FIP pitching last year after Cincinnati acquired him from Los Angeles expecting high-end production. Not unreasonable on the Reds’ part, as Wood had combined for a 3.29 ERA/3.36 FIP with 8.27 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate in 803 1/3 innings as a Brave and Dodger from 2013-18. The Dodgers brought him back on a low-risk guarantee ($4MM) in the offseason. They may strike gold if Wood can stay healthy.

Blake Treinen, RHP, Dodgers:

Like his new teammate Wood, Treinen was excellent in the recent past before falling off a cliff last season. Just two years ago, Treinen – then an Athletic – turned in one of the greatest seasons a reliever has ever had. But last year went awry for Treinen, who dealt with multiple injuries and logged subpar numbers. Treinen wound up with a 4.91 ERA/5.14 FIP and 9.05 K/9, 5.68 BB/9 and a 42.8 percent grounder rate over 58 2/3 innings. He lost his job as the A’s closer along the way, and they non-tendered him after the season. The hard-throwing Treinen landed on his feet, though, with a $10MM guarantee from the Dodgers.

Kyle Freeland, LHP, Rockies:

The soft-tossing Freeland was an NL Cy Young candidate back in 2018, so no one could have expected such a miserable showing in 2019. As it turned out, though, Freeland struggled so mightily that the Rockies optioned him to Triple-A at one point in the season. In the majors, he ended up with a brutal 6.73 ERA/5.99 FIP (compared to 2.85/3.67 the prior year) and 6.81 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9 across 104 1/3 innings, averaging fewer than five frames per start along the way. The 26-year-old’s severe drop-off was among the reasons the Rockies went from playoff team in 2018 to bottom-feeding club last season.

Wade Davis, RHP, Rockies:

Speaking of stunning declines from members of Colorado’s pitching staff … Davis continued his descent in 2019. In the second season of a three-year, $52MM contract, the once-untouchable Davis recorded an abysmal 8.65 ERA/5.56 FIP and walked more than six batters per nine over 42 2/3 innings. Davis also rated as one of Statcast’s worst pitchers, finishing toward the bottom of the league in average exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average and strikeout percentage, among other categories.

Johnny Cueto, RHP, Giants:

Even though he only pitched 16 innings last season, it’s tough not to include Cueto on this list. The former ace is hoping for his first full season in a while, as injuries (including Tommy John surgery in 2018) held him to a mere 216 1/3 innings over the previous three years. During his halcyon days, Cueto – now 34 – used to throw around that many innings in a single season. The Giants still owe Cueto $47MM through 2021, so a rebound effort would be all the more welcome for them.

Kevin Gausman, RHP, Giants:

Gausman, whom the Giants added for $9MM in free agency, is in line to join Cueto in their rotation. The hope for the club is that he’ll fare much better than he did in 2019 – a disappointing season for a pitcher who has been consistently respectable. Gausman performed so poorly as a Brave that they placed him on outright waivers in August, but he did turn his season around as a strikeout-heavy reliever in Cincinnati. However, despite 10.03 K/9 against 2.81 BB/9, Gausman could only muster a 5.72 ERA (granted, with a much more encouraging 3.98 FIP) in 102 1/3 frames divided between the two teams.

Dereck Rodriguez, RHP, Giants:

Rodriguez came out of nowhere to serve as one of the most effective rookies in the sport two years, but the dreaded sophomore slump took him down last season. The 27-year-old split 2019 between the Giants’ rotation and bullpen, registering a woeful 5.64 ERA/5.69 FIP (he was at 2.81/3.74 in 2018) in 99 innings. Rodriguez underwhelmed in the strikeout/walk department along the way, putting up 6.45 K/9 with 3.27 BB/9, and lost about a mile per hour on his low-90s fastball. Whether he’ll work more as a starter or reliever is in question heading into the new season, whenever it begins.

Tony Watson, LHP, Giants:

The normally reliable Watson wasn’t quite himself in 2019, in which he tallied career worsts in ERA (4.17), FIP (4.81) and home runs per nine (1.5) through 54 innings. Watson walked just two per nine, and there were no dips in his velocity (93.5 mph) or swinging-strike percentage (12.7), yet he still slumped to the second-lowest K/9 (6.83) of his career. Surprisingly, same-handed hitters – whom he has usually contained – did the most damage against Watson, teeing off on him for a .391 wOBA. In other words, Watson turned the average lefty into Anthony Rizzo. The Giants are banking on a better showing from Watson in 2020, though, as they re-signed him for a $3MM guarantee during the winter.

Trevor Cahill, RHP, Giants:

Cahill is the fifth member of this Giants-heavy list, but this will be his first year with the club. He spent last year with the Angels, who signed him for $9MM after he revived his career with the Athletics as a starter during the previous season. However, Cahill couldn’t carry that renaissance into 2019; he instead spent the majority of the season in the bullpen and logged an ugly 5.98 ERA/6.13 FIP. Compared to 2018, Cahill struck out one fewer batter per nine (7.12 overall) and saw his groundball rate drop by almost 8 percent (45.9). He also yielded a whopping 2.2 homers per nine – up from a paltry .65 the prior season. Now, it remains to be seen whether Cahill will even crack the roster in San Francisco, which signed him to a minor league contract. If he does, it may be as a reliever.

Garrett Richards, RHP, Padres:

Richards has been quite valuable when he has taken the mound. The problem is that appearances from the oft-injured ex-Angel have been rare in recent seasons. He hasn’t even touched the 80-inning mark in a season since 2015, when he amassed a career-high 207 1/3. Richards totaled just 8 2/3 frames last season after returning from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in July 2018. Of course, the Padres knew they’d get little from Richards in 2019 upon signing him to a two-year, $15.5MM pact. They’re hoping the investment pays dividends this season.

6 NL West Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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Our preseason series focusing on notable hitters and pitchers hoping to rebound from less-than-ideal 2019 outings wraps up in the National League West. We’ll start with six hitters who enjoyed productive 2018 campaigns before falling short last season…

Manny Machado, 3B, Padres:

By no means did the 27-year-old Machado perform poorly in 2019, his first season as a Padre. He just didn’t offer the type of production the team likely expected when it signed him to a then-record free-agent contract worth $300MM over 10 years. Whereas the four-time All-Star thrived with the Orioles and Dodgers the year before he joined the Friars, he has been more good than great in San Diego so far. Across 661 trips to the plate last season, Machado batted .256/.334/.462 – enough for a 108 wRC+ (he was at 131 in 2018). He did mash 32 home runs and finish in the majors’ 87th percentile in average exit velocity, but Machado struck out in nearly 5 percent more plate appearances compared to 2018. Furthermore, according to Statcast, Machado’s hard-hit percentage fell by just over 4 percent.

Jurickson Profar, 2B, Padres:

The former can’t-miss prospect finally looked to be turning a corner at the major league level in 2018, his last year with the Rangers. Unfortunately, though, Profar’s output tanked in his lone season with the Athletics in 2019. The 27-year-old switch-hitter could only muster a .218/.301/.410 line (89 wRC+) and 1.3 fWAR in 518 PA, and Statcast rated him near the bottom of the league in several important metrics. As a second baseman, Profar garnered all negative reviews (minus-15 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-3 Outs Above Average, minus-1 Ultimate Zone Rating). Still, the Padres are taking a chance on a bounce-back year for Profar, whom they acquired in a winter trade. The move reunited him with ex-Rangers executive and current Padres general manager A.J. Preller.

David Peralta, OF, Diamondbacks:

Peralta had a terrific year in 2018, smacking 31 home runs and accounting for 3.9 fWAR, but a nagging right shoulder injury prevented him from a proper encore last season. The 32-year-old wound up with just 12 homers in 423 plate appearances, in which he registered an overall line barely above average (.275/.343/.461 – good for a 107 wRC+), saw his isolated power number fall by 37 points and his expected weighted on-base average plummet by 49 points. Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks are giving Peralta the benefit of the doubt, evidenced by the two-year, $22MM extension they handed him in January.

Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants:

Crawford entered last year with six straight seasons of at least 2.0 fWAR, but he dropped to 0.4 in that category in 2019. Crawford hit just .228/.304/.350 (74 wRC+) in 560 PA, and even his well-regarded defense declined. For the first time in his career, the 33-year-old graded negatively in both DRS (minus-4) and UZR (minus-0.4). Not reassuring for the Giants, who still owe Crawford $30MM through 2021.

Enrique Hernandez, UTIL, Dodgers:

The versatile Hernandez was quite effective in 2018, during which he posted 3.2 fWAR, but that number checked in at a far less impressive 1.2 last season. The problem? A massive decline in offensive production. Hernandez’s wRC+ (88) represented a 30-point fall, while his OPS (.715; .237/.304/.411) lost 91 points. It didn’t help that Hernandez endured a 4-plus percent increase in strikeouts and a 3 percent decrease in walks.

Daniel Murphy, 1B, Rockies:

Count Murphy as another recent free-agent signing gone awry for the Rockies, who inked him to a two-year, $24MM contract in December 2019. Year 1, perhaps the weakest offensive season of his career, couldn’t have gone much worse for Murphy. The 34-year-old ’s .279/.328/.452 line doesn’t look terrible on paper, but when adjusted for ballpark, it only amounted to a wRC+ of 86. Murphy also had a miserable season in terms of Statcast output and recorded a negative fWAR (minus-0.2) for the first time ever.

Breakout Candidate: Dinelson Lamet

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Padres right-hander Dinelson Lamet may not be among Major League Baseball’s household names yet, but it could be only a matter of time before he joins those ranks. While Lamet hasn’t come close to preventing runs at an elite clip since he made his MLB debut in 2017, he has shown flashes that suggest a true breakout may not be out of the question.

Now 27 years old, Lamet caught on with the Padres out of the Dominican Republic in 2014. The franchise brought in Lamet, then 21, for $100K two years after a deal with the Phillies fell through. San Diego has since benefited from that fairly low-risk move.

After ascending through the minors, where he didn’t garner a significant amount of Triple-A experience, Lamet showed off a tantalizing fastball-slider mix during his first taste of MLB action three years ago. He wound up making 21 starts and tossing 114 1/3 innings of 4.57 ERA/4.35 FIP ball with 10.94 K/9 and 4.25 BB/9.

The hope, of course, was that Lamet would build on his respectable first-year effort the next season. Instead, though, he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow in April 2018. The procedure cost Lamet that entire year and the majority of his last season, but he enjoyed an extremely promising showing after returning July 4.

Lamet shook off the rust with 14 starts and 73 frames of 4.07 ERA/3.91 FIP pitching. Those run prevention totals may not look sensational, but a deeper dive gives reason to believe that Lamet will continue his rise. Not only did Lamet cut his walk rate (3.7 per nine), but his strikeout rate rose to a jaw-dropping 12.95. Among 146 starters who threw at least 70 innings, Lamet ranked behind only Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale in K/9. His strikeout percentage (33.6) trailed just Cole, Sale, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Mike Clevinger. The other members of the top 10? Blake Snell, Lucas Giolito, Jacob deGrom and Robbie Ray. With the exceptions of Lamet and Ray (a solid starter in his own right), there isn’t a single pitcher there who’s not a front-line option.

Adding to the good news, Lamet was something of a Statcast hero during his abbreviated 2019. Take a look at where he ranked in these categories…

  • Hard-hit rate: 69th percentile
  • Expected weighted on-base average: 71st percentile
  • Average exit velocity: 77th percentile
  • Curve spin: 79th percentile
  • Fastball spin: 81st percentile
  • Average fastball velocity: 89th percentile
  • Strikeout percentage: 93rd percentile

Well above average across the board. Lamet got there owing in part to an increase in velo (his average fastball reached 96.1 mph) and a slider that, according to Fangraphs’ pitch values, was among the most dominant offerings of its kind. As Ben Clemens of FanGraphs explained last August, Lamet was benefiting at the time from adding a second slider to his repertoire.

Lamet’s repertoire may have him on the cusp of busting out, though he’ll have to get the home runs under control. Granted, last season was a homer-happy year across baseball, but Lamet’s HR-to-fly ball percentage (19.7) was still bloated compared to most starters’. And that’s not going to work for someone who has induced grounders at a paltry 36.8 percent rate since he first set foot in the majors.

Aside from a need to cut down on HRs moving forward, Lamet also must show he can continue to stay healthy. That’s obviously not always easy for any hurler, let alone one with such a serious surgery in his past. But if Lamet can hold up, the Padres may have a potential breakout starter on their hands. That would be all the more welcome for a team that already has Chris Paddack fronting its rotation with MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino among its prospects getting closer to the bigs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Notes: Pagan, Roster

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Latest On MLB, Coronavirus

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11:10am: Teams throughout the league have been sending scouts home this morning, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that “just about every team, if not every team” has taken this step. Meanwhile, in an unlocked article that is not behind the web site’s paywall, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal runs through several potential pandemic-related issues and courses of action for the league.

As for any actual action from the league, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that the league is likely to provide some clarity today. At this point, it feels inevitable that the league will make a statement on the status of Spring Training games and the regular season in the very near future.

1:55am: The coronavirus outbreak led the National Basketball Association to suspend its season on Wednesday. It’s unclear how Major League Baseball will react before its regular season is scheduled to begin March 26, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that the pandemic will have a sizable effect on its plans.

It’s possible, for instance, that some of the league’s teams will start 2020 by playing regular-season games outside of their normal home venues. That already seems to be the case for the Mariners, who are “likely” to host their season-opening series in the Phoenix area instead of in Seattle, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com. But they may not be the only club in that situation. The state of California has recommended limiting public gatherings to 250 people for the rest of March, which means the Dodgers, Padres and Athletics could either play their initial series elsewhere or have those sets postponed, Passan tweets. All three of those teams are scheduled to play at home until early April.

For now, MLB executives aren’t slated to discuss how they’ll proceed until a Friday conference call, per Passan. However, with the NBA shutting itself down and the National Hockey League possibly poised to make a similar announcement on Thursday, perhaps MLB will reach a decision on how it will move forward sooner than expected. The hope is that the league will come up with a plan “within days,” three high-level team officials told Passan.

Taylor Trammell Still In Mix For Roster Spot

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  • Although he hasn’t played above the Double-A level yet, Padres outfield prospect Taylor Trammell remains in consideration for a major league roster spot, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. It’s a long shot that Trammell will actually begin the year in the majors, according to Cassavell, but manager Jayce Tingler noted that the 22-year-old is “playing really well” and has had “a great experience” in spring training. Trammell, whom the Padres acquired from Cincy in a blockbuster trade last summer, has gone 9-for-23 with three doubles and a triple this spring.

Javy Guerra Making Strong Bid For Bullpen Role

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  • Javy Guerra has recorded five strikeouts over 5 1/3 scoreless Spring Training innings, and is looking like a realistic candidate to make the Padres’ Opening Day bullpen, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Guerra (not to be confused with longtime veteran reliever Javy Guerra, who pitches for the Nationals) was once a highly-regarded shortstop prospect coming up in the Padres’ farm system, but his progress stalled after three lackluster years at the plate.  He converted to pitching at the end of last year’s Spring Training in an effort to revive his career, and the early returns have been very impressive — Guerra posted a 3.38 ERA, 12.7 K/9, and 3.00 K/BB rate over 21 1/3 combined innings at high-A and Double-A ball last season before getting an eight-game audition in San Diego’s bullpen last season.  Now, the out-of-options Guerra is throwing his fastball at 99mph and, according to manager Jayce Tingler, could be in line for a multi-inning relief role.  “I’ve never seen somebody in (11) months go from shortstop to do what he’s done on the mound,” Tingler said.  “I’ve seen guys converted.  I’ve never seen such easy strikes with such premier velocity with movement and the ability to throw a secondary pitch.  Then having a shortstop background, somebody who can bounce off and make…plays, it’s like having a fifth infielder out there.”

Cubs Targeted Dinelson Lamet, Others In Previous Kris Bryant Talks With Padres

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The Cubs and Padres discussed various scenarios involving third baseman Kris Bryant but were (obviously) unable to come to an agreement, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune reports. Specifically, the Cubs showed interest in right-hander Dinelson Lamet. Catching prospect Luis Campusano was also a potential target.

It’s hardly a shock to see the pitching-needy Cubs pursuing a controllable big league arm like Lamet. The 27-year-old returned from Tommy John surgery in 2019 and gave the Padres 73 innings (14 starts) of 4.07 ERA ball with a massive 13.0 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 and 1.48 HR/9. Lamet averaged 96.1 mph on his heater and posted a gaudy 14 percent swinging-strike rate in addition to high-end spin rates on his heater and breaking ball.

Beyond Lamet’s ability to miss bats, he’s controlled for four seasons, which surely holds appeal considering the Cubs could see both Jon Lester and Jose Quintana hit free agency next winter. His fit on the 2020 club would be clear as well; currently, the Cubs’ hope is that Tyler Chatwood can hold down the fifth starter’s role — a task that he hasn’t been up to in either of the first two seasons of his ill-fated three-year, $38MM deal. Installing Lamet as a fifth option behind Lester, Quintana, Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks would’ve been considered an upgrade.

Lamet, though, is also viewed as a key part of the Padres’ 2020 plans. He’s expected to hold down a rotation spot alongside Chris Paddack, Garrett Richards, Zach Davies and Joey Lucchesi. The back of the Padres’ rotation will be a bit in flux as their wave of high-end prospects — headlined by MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino — continue to push toward the big leagues. Lamet, though, has perhaps the highest upside of anyone other than Paddack in that initial quintet.

The 21-year-old Campusano, meanwhile, has significantly elevated his status over the past year. A second-round pick back in 2017, Campusano hit .325/.396/.509 in 487 plate appearances against against much older competition in Class-A Advanced in 2019. He’s now widely considered to be among the game’s 100 best prospects — ranking as high as No. 33 overall in the estimation of ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

While Bryant wouldn’t exactly be a clean fit into the Padres’ lineup in terms of position, his bat would represent a major upgrade to a Padres team that collectively batted .238/.308/.410 — good for just an 88 wRC+ that ranked 24th among Major League clubs. But with Manny Machado entrenched at third base and Fernando Tatis Jr. slotted in at shortstop — Machado’s other position — fitting Bryant into the mix would be a bit tougher.

Bryant does have experience in the outfield corners, but the Padres aren’t really short on options there, either (Tommy Pham, Wil Myers, Trent Grisham, Franchy Cordero). Bryant would clearly be the best hitter of the bunch, but San Diego acquired both Pham and Grisham this winter, and Myers’ contract ensures that he’ll be a part of the mix in some capacity. Acee does note that while the Padres were willing to consider moving Tatis to center field in the event of a Francisco Lindor acquisition, that scenario wasn’t a consideration when contemplating a Bryant swap.

At this point, the chances of any deal involving Bryant look to be minimal. The former Rookie of the Year and MVP has already had a sit-down with Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein — a meeting from which he came away with the impression that he’ll be remaining in Chicago. Their asking price could be informative in the event that Bryant once again hits the market, however, and it also speaks to the manner in which the Friars value both Lamet and Campusano.

Tatis: “Nothing Happening Out There Yet” On Contract Extension

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An extension with star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. was reportedly one of the Padres’ offseason goals, though it doesn’t appear as if much progress has been made on that front.  In a radio interview on the Ben & Woods morning show (Twitter link), Tatis said he and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group would “talk about it if the Padres come with something, but there’s nothing happening out there yet.”

While Padres general manager A.J. Preller was “definitely not looking to comment publicly” on the status of negotiations during his own Ben & Woods interview (Twitter link), Preller indicated that the club did want to “explore every option and possibility” in terms of a potential long-term agreement with Tatis.  “We’ll sit down with him and his representatives when the time is right here, and kind of get a feel for where they’re at and see if there’s something there,” Preller said.

The fact that talks have seemingly yet to truly begin isn’t necessarily a sign that an extension couldn’t still happen before Opening Day or shortly into the season, as many teams don’t turn their attention to extension talks whatsoever until Spring Training.  Of course, there also isn’t any immediate urgency to get a deal done since Tatis is under team control through the 2024 season — the shortstop has two remaining years as a pre-arbitration player, and then three seasons of arbitration eligibility.

Gaining some additional control (not to mention cost certainty) over Tatis would certainly be of interest to the Padres, as Tatis has one of the brightest futures of any player in the sport.  The 21-year-old is coming off a rookie season that saw him hit .317/.379/.590 with 22 home runs over 372 plate appearances.  This was despite a pair of injured list stints due to a hamstring strain, and then a back strain that ended Tatis’ season in mid-August.

Should Tatis continue to perform at this high level over the next five years, he would be on track for free agency heading into his age-26 season and be in line for a monster payday on the open market, more than likely over the $400MM threshold.  San Diego knows a thing or two about spending big on a 26-year-old free agent, having just dropped $300MM on Manny Machado (another MVP Sports Group client, of note) last winter.  Locking up even one or two of Tatis’ free agent years as part of a long-term deal could end up being quite a bargain for the Padres, and by that same token, Tatis could be open to an extension that gives him financial security now, yet also doesn’t prevent him from free agency before his 30th birthday.

Some larger factors could also be at play, as The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (subscription required) raised the possibility that Tatis and other younger players might hold off on extensions “with the idea that the next collective bargaining agreement will change the structures of club control and free agency.”  The current CBA expires in December 2021, so assuming a new labor agreement is in place prior to the start of the 2022 season, Tatis would still have three years remaining as a Padre and potentially a new range of contractual options to consider from a negotiating perspective.  Perhaps as a nod to how a new CBA would impact the status quo, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported yesterday that multiple teams were looking to lock up pre-arbitration players to extensions in the next few weeks.

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