Padres Interested In Extending Kirby Yates
There has been no shortage of interest this summer in Padres closer Kirby Yates, one of baseball’s top trade chips. It doesn’t appear the Padres are going to move Yates by Wednesday’s deadline, though, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The team instead hopes to extend Yates, who’s in his penultimate year of club control.
Yates has unexpectedly turned into a core Padre and one of the elite relievers in baseball since they claimed him off waivers from the Angels in April 2017. At that point, the right-hander owned a 5.38 ERA across 98 2/3 innings divided among the Rays, Yankees and Angels. With help from the splitter he added to his repertoire upon joining the Padres, Yates has pitched to a stellar 2.38 ERA/2.47 FIP with 13.78 K/9, 2.49 BB/9 and 44 saves on 50 chances over 162 2/3 innings in San Diego.
While Yates was tremendous a year ago, he has found yet another gear this season. Through 44 frames, Yates ranks first among qualified relievers in ERA (1.02) and FIP (1.07), second in K/BB ratio (8.00), third in xFIP (2.12), fourth in K/9 (14.73) and 20th in BB/9 (1.84). Hitters have recorded a matching and feckless .208 weighted on-base average/expected wOBA off Yates, who has converted 31 of 33 save opportunities.
The Padres are likely out of contention this season, Yates is set to play his age-33 campaign in 2020, and relievers are known for their volatility. Those are all arguments for the Padres to sell Yates when his value’s at its zenith, and the fact he’s earning a bargain salary ($3MM-plus) would make an impressive haul easier for them to land. But it looks as if the Padres, hoping to snap their lengthy playoff drought in 2020, will keep Yates and make an effort to reach a new deal with him.
Noah Syndergaard Rumors: Tuesday
The Mets have already added one of the most coveted starters on the trade market, but they’re poised to perhaps trade away one or two more. New York continues to listen to offers on righty Noah Syndergaard, who is still listed as the starter for tonight’s game. We’ll track today’s rumblings on him here and update throughout the evening…
- The Padres made what they considered a fair offer on Syndergaard — one that involved Major League players — but still aren’t close to coming to terms with the Mets, reports SNY’s Andy Martino (via Twitter). The Padres are widely believed to be willing to deal from their plethora of outfielders — Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes are among the available names — and also possess one of baseball’s premier farm systems. San Diego’s interest in Syndergaard dates back to the offseason, and they’re still hoping to add a potential frontline starter to help them in 2020 beyond at this year’s deadline. While they’ve explored innumerable trade scenarios around the league, the Padres’ “most earnest” pursuit has been their ongoing effort to obtain Syndergaard, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
- Similarly, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Mets have been seeking current MLB talent in all of their Syndergaard talks — even from teams with highly regarded minor league systems. That meshes with last night’s report (from LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that the Mets had asked the Twins for center fielder Byron Buxton as part of the return for Syndergaard — an ask that Minnesota was rather obvious unwilling to oblige. (Buxton is hitting .259/.313/.508, good for a 108 wRC+, and is arguably baseball’s best outfield defender.)
- “[W]hat they were asking it is not even worth a second conversation,” one executive tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post with regard to Syndergaard discussions with the Mets. “I’m not even sure it was worth the first. … [T]he Mets are not in the mode of meeting you in the middle of your offer and their ask, it is their ask or nothing.” As Sherman more broadly explores, Mets brass has no inclination to move toward anything but a win-now approach in 2020. General manager Brodie Van Wagenen was the only one of the dozen GM candidates for the Mets who did not recommend some level of rebuild to ownership, Sherman writes, and both he and the Wilpon family remain committed to constructing a roster they believe can compete in 2020. That seems to only further underline that the Mets would want multiple MLB or MLB-ready assets to part with Syndergaard.
Rays Showing Interest In Padres Outfielders
The Rays are working the phones on multiple fronts, with the evident aim of adding pitching as well as a bat. In that latter pursuit, the team has engaged the padres regarding corner outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).
It’s not surprising to see those particular names pop up, if only because of the prior rumored Tampa Bay targets. The club has been tied to numerous powerful right-handed hitters, most of whom would represent full or part-time options in the corner outfield. It seems that’s a particular profile of interest.
What’s particularly interesting about this slugging San Diego duo is that it consists of a pair of young and controllable players. That’d presumably increase the price tag, though perhaps there’s also some logic in the Rays going after pieces with long-term as well as short-term value.
There’s obviously a tough balance to be struck here by the Tampa Bay front office. Even as hopes of a division run have melted away, the club has made clear that it wishes to “do everything we can not to take this season for granted and see if there is a way to help this team in a responsible fashion.”
Renfroe and Reyes each possess an abundance of power. They’ve also both put it into play in game action at the MLB level this year. The former has a .238/.297/.563 slash and 29 dingers, the latter a .253/.312/.535 mark and 27 long balls. Both of those lines translate to a 116 wRC+ and suggest equal parts intrigue and concern as to sustainability.
The sluggers each have a little more swing and miss, and a little less plate discipline, than might be preferred. Barring an adjustment, their fortunes will rise and fall on their ability to square up the baseball consistently. That sort of high-power, low-OBP profile hasn’t been favored in recent years, though perhaps that could create a bit of an opportunity for the Rays.
It remains to be seen how aggressively the Padres will market their corner sluggers. While the club has yet to resolve its general outfield crunch, it’s not as if the organization is desperate to clear a path for a can’t-miss prospect.
Closer Market Rumors: Diaz, Vazquez
The Mets have numerous top trade chips on the market right now, including marquee offseason acquisition Edwin Diaz. The talented young closer remains highly valuable despite his 4.95 ERA, though it’s likewise true that there’s little chance the Mets would be able to recoup what they gave up to get him over the winter. Beyond the fact that Diaz is now just months away from arbitration, the Mets simply paid a hefty fee for Diaz at the outset. In addition to parting with rising prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, the club took on $64MM in new salary (after netting out the cash and salaries exchanged).
While that’s a particularly painful price in retrospect, the New York organization must now think primarily about what it wants its roster and payroll to look like moving forward. The latest on Diaz and the rest of the closer market:
- Despite Diaz’s struggles in the earned-run department, there’s “significant” demand for his services, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). At present, the Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Padres are teams with active interest. Several of those teams have been linked clearly to Diaz of late.
- While Rosenthal had also listed the Red Sox, who were connected yesterday to Diaz by ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, it seems that possibility has already fizzed. That match “remains unlikely,” Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds Raisel Iglesias of the Reds and Shane Greene of the Tigers as other top relievers unlikely to end up in Boston. (Twitter link.) The Braves, on the other hand, do indeed still seem to be in pursuit of Diaz. Per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, via Twitter, the Mets have continued to examine the Atlanta farm. From the Braves’ side, it seems Diaz is the top target, with starters Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler of ongoing but lesser interest.
- If there’s a clear alternative to Diaz, it’s ace Pirates reliever Felipe Vazquez. The high-octane lefty has hit another gear in 2019, with 14.1 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 to go with his shiny 1.87 ERA on the season. We’ve seen him connected recently to the Dodgers, but there’s no indication the sides have momentum. Indeed, Rosenthal adds (in the above-linked column) that the Bucs are putting such a high price on Vazquez that he “essentially is not available.” That may be a bargaining ploy to see if a rival comes forward with a monster offer, but it’s certainly understandable that the Pirates aren’t just putting Vazquez up for auction. Rosenthal cites anonymous front office opinion that the Pittsburgh roster doesn’t have enough to compete in the near-term to justify keeping an asset such as Vazquez. That may well be the case, but it doesn’t mean the club should sell him short — particularly after seeing what the M’s were able to pry from the Mets for Diaz last winter.
NL Trade Rumors: Gore, Padres, Mets, Leclerc, Nats, Braves, Jays
Some buzz from around the National League as we approach the deadline…
- The Mets‘ surprise acquisition of Marcus Stroman has sparked even more rumors about a possible Noah Syndergaard trade, with the Padres one of the teams (if pessimistically so) still in talks about Syndergaard. While the Padres have a deep farm system’s worth of prospects to offer, one name that isn’t available is top pitching prospect MacKenzie Gore, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets. Gore has been mentioned as a possible trade chip in quite a few speculative deals since the offseason, though the Padres reportedly consider the young left-hander to be next to untouchable. Ironically, the Mets themselves may have contributed to the Padres’ stance on not including Gore in a Syndergaard trade — since the Mets didn’t have to give up even a top-100 MLB.com-ranked prospect for Stroman, San Diego can argue that a consensus top-10 arm like Gore is too much to give up for Syndergaard.
- Also from Morosi, the Nationals have interest in Rangers righty Jose Leclerc. Washington has been connected to a wide range of relievers, and Leclerc boasts a 3.99 ERA, 3.27 K/BB rate, and a huge 13.7 K/9 over 47 1/3 IP for Texas this season, not to mention a long-term contract that could keep him until team control through the 2024 campaign. Needless to say, all these attributes would require a big return to pry him loose from Texas, which could be tricky for a Nats organization that isn’t overly deep on minor league talent.
- The history between Atlanta general manager Alex Anthopoulos and the Blue Jays led to some speculation that the Jays and Braves were resistant to trading with each other. Though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently noted that Toronto’s “stance has softened,” it might not have dropped altogether, as The Athletic’s David O’Brien tweeted that “the word was that Toronto would deal with him [Anthopoulos], but would ask for more from [the] Braves” in talks involving Marcus Stroman than they would from other teams. Stroman is off the table now, of course, though it would be interesting to know if this reported stance from the Jays extends to other trade chips who could be on Atlanta’s radar, like Ken Giles.
Reaction & Analysis To The Marcus Stroman Trade
It was widely assumed that the Blue Jays were going to trade Marcus Stroman before the deadline, and many rumors suggested that he could eventually wind up in New York. Exactly where in the Big Apple Stroman landed, however, ended up being the surprise, as it was the Mets (they of the 55-60 record and the six-game deficit in the NL wild card standings) who landed the right-hander, rather than the AL-leading Yankees. The Mets acquired Stroman from the Jays for Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson, two of the Amazins’ top pitching prospects.
Today’s stunner of a deal has already led to quite a bit of reaction and speculation about what moves could come next. The highlights…
- The Mets have “hijacked the [pitching] market” with the trade, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan tweets. The Mets’ plan is to keep Stroman, and “the likelihood is strong they deal at least one of” Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler. Reports from earlier this week suggested that New York could try to sign Wheeler, a pending free agent, to a contract extension, though Passan feels a long-term deal with Wheeler is “increasingly unlikely.”
- The Padres have been heavily linked to Syndergaard since the offseason, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that San Diego is “not optimistic” about landing the righty, since the Mets’ trade demands for Syndergaard are so high. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweeted earlier today that Manuel Margot had been discussed as part of the Mets/Padres talks.
- Seth Lugo is another Mets pitcher “gaining late interest” in trade talks, the New York Daily News’ Deesha Thosar reports (Twitter link). Lugo has been the Amazins’ best reliever this season, posting a 2.77 ERA, 11.94 K/9, and 5.15 K/BB rate over 52 innings. Lugo is under control through the 2022 season, so he’d cost a hefty price in a trade, and one wonders if the Mets would even consider moving such a relatively inexpensive long-term asset since they’re planning to contend next year. (Plus, Lugo becomes even more valuable to the pen if the Mets were to deal Edwin Diaz.)
- Chris Hemsw….er, that is, Syndergaard himself poked fun at the trade speculation in a tweet of his own.
- Several of The Athletic’s baseball writers (subscription required) joined forces for a roundtable discussion about the Stroman trade, with Jayson Stark perhaps summing things up with this comment that “Nobody can confuse an entire industry like the Mets.” Multiple writers pointed out that the Mets’ poor infield defense doesn’t suit Stroman’s grounder-heavy attack. If Stroman is the first step to flipping Syndergaard, it’s still an odd tactic for a team in win-now mode — as Tim Britton puts it, “New York is replacing [Syndergaard] in 2020 with someone [Stroman] older, with less team control, and whose track record is not quite as good.” From the Blue Jays’ perspective, Kaitlyn McGrath notes that adding Kay and Woods Richardson meets Toronto’s desire for pitching depth, given the relative lack of young arms in the system.
- Today’s deal ends Stroman’s often-controversial tenure with the Jays, as the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm chronicles the multiple instances when the “fractured relationship” between Stroman and the Jays become public. While a trade may have always been inevitable given the Blue Jays’ rebuild, “bad blood on both sides is one reason why a team desperate for pitching opted to trade one of its most talented arms,” Chisholm writes.
- Stroman (via his Twitter account) did leave with grateful words for fans in Toronto and Canada, while also expressing excitement at returning to play for his hometown team.
Trade Notes & Rumors: Padres, Jays, Chang
While Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and Trevor Bauer may be dominating the headlines, numerous under-the-radar names are also being bandied about as the trade deadline approaches. We’ll round up a few here.
- Unsurprisingly, the Padres have been getting calls on some of their top prospects. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports interest in infielder Luis Urias among teams who believe he can be a capable everyday shortstop. Urias has continued to play predominantly shortstop in the minors, but the position is obviously filled in Petco for the forseeable future by Fernando Tatis, Jr. Most public outlets believe second base to be a better fit for Urias regardless, but there’s little concern he can’t handle the increased offensive demands of the keystone. The 22 year-old is laying waste to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League and is a consensus top-50 prospect. While not necessarily related to any interest in Urias, Rosenthal further notes the Friars have been on the lookout for a left-handed bat to help balance their lineup.
- Urias isn’t the only San Diego high-minors farmhand piquing interest. Amidst speculation about a three-team Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman trade, the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee tweets the Blue Jays have interest in Padres’ left-hander Adrian Morejon. The 20 year-old was a high-profile Cuban signee as an amateur and has flown through the minors. While he’s not likely a future ace and has a bit of a spotty injury history, Fangraphs’ Eric Longehagen and Kiley McDaniel note that Morejon’s stuff and command give him a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.
- Speaking of the Jays, Rosenthal reports interest on an under-the-radar relief option. In addition to the commonly-speculated Ken Giles and Daniel Hudson, Rosenthal notes there have been some calls on right-hander Joe Biagini. The 29 year-old has a 3.42 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in 47 relief appearances. While he won’t be anyone’s headline acquisition, he also comes with three years of team control beyond this season at likely affordable rates.
- The Padres aren’t the only team with a high-minors prospect sparking leaguewide demand. Cleveland infielder Yu Chang is drawing some calls, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. Soon to turn 24, the Taiwnese infielder is a bat-first prospect who made his MLB debut this season but could have a hard time breaking into a loaded left side of the Cleveland infield. He’s slashing a solid, if unspectacular .273/.344/.448 this season in Triple-A.
Wil Myers Discusses Prolonged 2019 Slump
In a refreshingly candid interview with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Padres outfielder Wil Myers gave several quotes providing insight into the mind of an established ballplayer who has fallen precipitously on hard times on the diamond.
“It’s not something that I ever saw coming, especially to have an All-Star year and then three years later not be playing,” Myers said. “It’s definitely tough. This is one of the things that hurts your pride. This is what I’ve been good at since I was five-years-old.
By “something,” Myers is referring to his sudden inability to do the things that have made him a highly compensated professional athlete. On the 2019 season, Myers–always a strikeout-prone hitter–has been felled by way of the “K” an astonishing 111 times in his 270 at-bats. With the exception of Myers’ 2014 season–when he was hindered by a lingering wrist injury–this year’s output would represent career-low marks in wRC+ (87), OPS (.696), and batting average (.211).
More alarmingly, it’s difficult to find evidence that Myers’ poor production is simply the result of poor luck or context. His .306 BABIP is right around his career average; the same is true for his hard-hit rate (43.1%). His wOBA of .305 isn’t shockingly far from his .323 xwOBA. Unfortunately, the only readily available explanation seems to be “between the ears,” and Myers spoke on how his struggles have affected his confidence.
“No matter how hard you try, it seems like you’re digging a bigger hole,” Myers said. “So I definitely have been pissed off. I can’t stand sitting the bench. I hate it. I really do. It’s just terrible. I’ve never done it before.”
Taken out of context, those quotes may simply sound like the venting of a frustrated ballplayer disgruntled over lack of playing time. However, Acee’s article actually includes some revelatory comments that indicate Myers’ willingness to do what’s best for the organization that signed him to a six-year, $86.5MM extension that begins to escalate into $20MM annual territory beginning next year.
Of a possible demotion to the minor leagues–which Myers, as a veteran player, has the right to refuse–the outfielder indicated, at least, openness: “I can’t sit here and lie and pretend like I haven’t thought like, ‘Maybe if I had some at-bats there, it might get better,’ ” Myers acknowledged. “But, you know, what, that’s not why I’m here. I’m here to bring value to this team right now.”
Though the extension handed to Myers by GM AJ Preller has become a rightful punching bag of analysts and fans alike, the outfielder’s sudden, prime-year struggles are fascinatingly inexplicable. Between 2015 and 2018, it could have been argued that Myers was, if nothing else, a model of consistency: his wRC+ in that span never dipped below 107 or above 115; his slugging percentage in that span checked in with a high mark of .464 and a low mark of .427. Heading into the season at age 28, Myers may not have been the superstar the team forecasted when it handed him a sizable extension, but he was still a thoroughly playable piece.
Suddenly, though, Myers’ ability to “bring value to the team” will hinge largely on the play of his teammates. The emergence of Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe as quality big league hitters–along with the improving play of Manuel Margot–have left him without much of a spot in the outfield, while the organization’s decision to sign Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144MM deal in 2018 categorically moved Myers off of first base. Without many available at-bats within immediate reach, Myers could have a tough time breaking out of this prolonged 2019 slump.
Latest On Trevor Bauer
It’s anyone’s guess whether the Indians will trade right-hander Trevor Bauer before Wednesday’s deadline. On one hand, he’s an integral piece of a surging team that has climbed to 62-42, putting the Tribe four up on the AL’s top wild-card spot and just one back of the division-leading Twins. On the other, the budget-conscious Indians would net an enticing return for Bauer, who’s on a $13MM salary and figures to earn a raise of $5MM or more to conclude his arbitration control next season. Even if the Indians decide to retain Bauer through this year, his time in Cleveland is nearing a conclusion. The 28-year-old “almost certainly” isn’t going to be on the Indians’ roster in 2020, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports.
In the meantime, the Indians have a few days to choose how to proceed with Bauer this season. There’s already known to be plenty of interest in Bauer, but it seems two of the Indians’ AL rivals – the Yankees and Astros – are pursuing him with more vigor than anyone else. Those two clubs “keep inquiring about Bauer,” writes Hoynes, who adds the Indians have also discussed him with the Padres and Braves.
Among the Yankees, Astros, Padres and Braves, only San Diego isn’t an immediate contender. However, the club is known to like Bauer, whom it tried to acquire at the beginning of the season. Led by their collection of young talent, the Padres have made progress since then, and they’re aiming to make a more spirited run at a playoff berth next year. That’s evidenced by the club’s interest in Bauer and other established starters, including Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd and Mets righty Noah Syndergaard.
It would seem rather difficult for Cleveland to hand Bauer to New York or Houston, in part because the Indians could realistically wind up facing him as a Yankee or Astro in the postseason. Plus, considering Corey Kluber has been out since May 1 with a forearm fracture (and isn’t returning imminently) and Carlos Carrasco’s battling leukemia, the Indians arguably need Bauer more than ever.
Bauer not only leads the Indians’ staff in innings (152 1/3), but he paces the entire league in that department, and has logged a solid 3.49 ERA/4.19 FIP with 10.58 K/9 and 3.49 BB/9. All-Star MVP Shane Bieber is the lone Indians starter who has outperformed Bauer over the course of a full season in 2019. Mike Clevinger has been fantastic again, though he has only made nine starts. Another rookie, Zach Plesac, has joined Bieber in outdoing Bauer in ERA (3.10), but that figure looks like a house of cards when examining his fielding-independent pitching numbers. Meanwhile, Adam Plutko and the currently injured Jefry Rodriguez have managed back-end type of numbers over a combined 17 starts.
For now, the interest in Bauer may wind up going for naught. The Indians could prefer to hold Bauer and try to take another run at a championship as control over him and several other notables – most importantly, Francisco Lindor – dissipates. If the Indians elect against moving Bauer in the next few days, Hoynes suggests they’ll attempt to supplement their roster, perhaps by by adding relief and-or offensive help. Hoynes points to Rangers slugger Hunter Pence as “a possibility” for Cleveland, though it’s unclear if that’s speculation or if there’s real interest on the Tribe’s part.
Mets Interested In Marcus Stroman, “Exploring” Noah Syndergaard Deal With Padres
4:25 pm: The Padres have “not shown much desire” to move Urias in any deal, per The Athletic’s Dennis Lin.
2:56 pm: The Mets, who currently sit in no-man’s land in a stacked-up NL Wild Card picture, are “exploring” a number of trade scenarios, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, one of which includes sending righty Noah Syndergaard to the Padres and using a portion of the loot to pursue Toronto’s Marcus Stroman.
It’s a bizarre scenario for New York, which still boasts a respectable blue-chip group after shipping top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn to Seattle in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade. A further depletion of the team’s farm, given its current trajectory, would obviously be unsound, but swapping Syndergaard for Stroman with a marginal gain in prospect capital wouldn’t seem to make much sense either. Stroman, of course, is under control (through 2020) for a season fewer than is Thor, and, despite a recent output that would suggest otherwise, isn’t on level with the 26-year-old ace, whose 2.85 FIP is tied for 6th best among all MLB hurlers since his debut in 2015.
Simply dangling Syndergaard for the choicest return – one that’d almost surely include an MLB-ready piece the club could plug right in to its 25-man – would be the blueprint for most teams, especially ones whose near-term designs on contending had gone awry. Perhaps the club would intend to flip Stroman after the season ends, or even extend him, but his value’s near-zenith at current and an offseason trade wouldn’t figure to net a return commensurate with the departing package this July.
It’s certainly true that the Padres have an embarrassment of riches with which to play, and the headlining piece in the swap with New York – Luis Patiño, perhaps, or the polarizing Luis Urias (9th overall, per Baseball Prospectus, though has struggled big-time in a brief MLB sample thus far) – could anchor the club’s lineup or rotation for years to come, though there isn’t a clear-cut available superstar in the bunch (assuming that lefty MacKenzie Gore is off the table). New York would be selling low on a controllable hurler who’s a decent bet to return to ace form, and swapping him to a team who doesn’t necessarily possess the MLB-ready stud the team seems to covet.
For the Padres, the buy-low opportunity may be too much to pass up, even though the team’s position in the playoff picture – currently 7 GB of the second Wild Card spot – wouldn’t align with a big-fish hook. Assuming the Mets require the full ticket price on Syndergaard, San Diego will be paying a premium for two additional months of the hurler, time in which the club will likely be focused primarily on player development. Still, it may be now-or-never for the Pads, who likely wouldn’t have a chance to acquire Thor if he’s shipped to a team with its eyes on long-term prizes.