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Free Agent Profile: Justin Upton

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Justin Upton, baseball’s first overall draft pick a decade ago, reaches free agency at age 28 with a solid track record of hitting for power.

Strengths/Pros

Justin UptonUpton’s pedigree is still an important selling point, because it implies he’s yet to reach his ceiling.  According to Baseball America, Upton was on scouts’ radars when he was 14 years old.  After he was drafted out of high school by the Diamondbacks in ’05, BA wrote that he had “unbelievable tools” and felt that the term “five-tool prospect” sold him short.  Upton was the consensus pick for first overall, after older brother B.J. (now known as Melvin) went second overall to the Rays in 2002.  Justin was seen as a patient, powerful hitter, with great bat speed, plus power potential, big-time speed, and a cannon for an arm.

Ten years later, Upton has 190 home runs under his belt through age 27.  Of the 30 non-active players who accomplished that feat, 17 are in the Hall of Fame.  Upton has 82 home runs over the last three seasons, 17th in baseball.  Among those with 1500 plate appearances in that time, Upton ranks 22nd in slugging and 18th in ISO.  Power is Upton’s main calling card, and at age 28, there may be more to come.  Upton is also an asset on the basepaths, as his baserunning runs above average marks can attest.

I wouldn’t call Upton one of the best players in baseball, but he is one of the game’s better outfielders.  Over the last three years, his 10.6 wins above replacement ranks 18th among outfielders.  He was an All-Star in 2009, ’11, and ’15, finishing fourth in the MVP voting in ’11.  Upton has been durable, averaging 152 games played over the last five seasons.

As we’ve mentioned, Upton will play most of next season at age 28.  The only other top 30 free agent position players who will play next year in their 20s are Jason Heyward and Colby Rasmus.  Upton’s age leaves room for upside and should result in his team getting more prime years.

Weaknesses/Cons

Let’s be honest: Upton hasn’t lived up to the mammoth expectations placed on him.  He only reached 30 home runs once in his eight seasons, and that was four years ago.  Power may be Upton’s strength, but fellow free agent Chris Davis has shown much more.  Upton’s ability to get on base is nothing special, and one can name at least 20 hitters who have been better overall over the last three years.  You can find at least 40 hitters who were better this year.  Upside is nice, but if this is all Upton is, he’s a good player and not a great one.

Strikeouts are part of Upton’s game.  He has whiffed in 25.8% of his plate appearances since 2013; only seven qualified hitters struck out more often.  Oddly enough, all of them are either free agents or non-tender candidates.

Upton’s left field defense grades out as roughly average.  Advanced metrics show he was a touch above average this year, and a touch below last year.  I don’t consider it a strength or a weakness, but I felt his defense warranted mention.

Upton is expected to receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Padres, so signing him will require draft pick forfeiture.  This is not the case for one of his main market competitors, Yoenis Cespedes.

Personal

Upton was born in Norfolk, Virginia and resides in Scottsdale, Arizona with his wife.  Justin grew up in a baseball family.  His father Manny scouted for the Royals and White Sox, and older brother Melvin was drafted second overall in ’02.  Justin battled an immaturity label early in his career, as outlined in this 2012 ESPN article by Robert Sanchez.  It should be noted that he made his MLB debut at age 19.  Upton signed a six-year, $51.25MM extension with the Diamondbacks in March 2010, but was traded to the Braves in January 2013.  He spent 2013 and ’14 roaming the outfield alongside his brother Melvin, who had signed with Atlanta a few months prior.  Then Justin was traded to the Padres in December 2014, and Melvin rejoined him after a separate deal in April.

Market

Upton should have plenty of suitors this winter, though he does not seem likely to re-sign with the Padres.  The Orioles don’t have much at the outfield corners, and could have money to spend if they lose Chris Davis.  The Yankees could be a suitor if they trade Brett Gardner.  The Rangers could be a potential match if they have an appetite for another large contract.  The White Sox have a need in the outfield, but have never spent even $70MM on a player.  The Mariners could have a spot for Upton, but he rejected a trade to Seattle in 2013.  I wouldn’t rule them out, however, in the case Upton has decided the Mariners are closer to contention now than they were two years ago.  I’ve heard plenty of speculation that the Giants make a good fit for Upton, though it’s possible they’ll put their resources toward pitching.

Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was the scouting director when the Diamondbacks drafted Upton first overall, but a reunion would require moving Jayson Werth to right field and Bryce Harper to center.   It’s unclear whether they’d be interested in doing so.  The Dodgers have almost $40MM tied up in Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier next year.  Trading one of them and signing Upton (not necessarily in that order) is plausible.

The Tigers could have a spot for Upton, but they seem likely to focus on starting pitching.  Same goes for the Red Sox, who would also have to move an outfielder like Jackie Bradley to make room.  The Angels, Astros, and Blue Jays could seek a left field upgrade this winter, but may prefer a left-handed hitter.  The Jays, as well as the Indians, were on Upton’s four-team no-trade list last winter.  The Indians would likely face budget restraints with Upton, and may not want to bring him on as a right fielder anyway.

The Royals could have an opening in left field if Alex Gordon departs, but they’ve never committed more than $55MM to a player.  The Cardinals have plenty of in-house replacements if Jason Heyward departs.  The Mets are a tough match even if Cespedes leaves, with Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto at the corners.  The Cubs also have more of a need at center field.  The Phillies have little in place at the outfield corners and could afford Upton, but it would be odd for a rebuilding club and a tough sell for the player.

Expected Contract

Given his age, an opt-out clause should be a consideration for Upton.  Agent Larry Reynolds would do well to get his client another crack at free agency at age 30 or 31, as no one would be surprised if Upton takes his game to another level and hits 40 home runs at some point.  If an opt-out clause is obtained by Reynolds, I’d expect the total dollars to be reduced as a concession.

Coming off an inferior season to Chris Davis and Yoenis Cespedes, I’d expect Upton to receive a slightly lower average annual value.  Plus, Upton’s age gives him a chance at a seventh year, which may also bring down the AAV.  Something in the $20-22MM range could work.  The end result might put all three players at a similar grand total.  I’m putting Upton down for a seven-year, $147MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.

Quick Hits: Cespedes, Cubs, Allison

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Mets GM Sandy Alderson traded for Yoenis Cespedes because he believed the club needed another hitter, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Alderson originally focused on Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez and Reds outfielder Jay Bruce because they came with additional club control. However, the Gomez deal was nixed after the Mets reviewed his physical, and the Reds pulled Bruce off the trade block on July 31. Alderson preferred Justin Upton of the Padres, but they refused to back down from demands for pitcher Michael Fulmer, shortstop Amed Rosario, and others. While Alderson still preferred a higher OBP hitter, Cespedes had the best acquisition cost. Per Alderson, if the Mets didn’t acquire a top bat, “people will point to the fact that we were not all in.”

  • The Cubs will be a trendy pick to win the National League next season, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times. However, Theo Epstein and crew have a difficult road ahead of them. Within their own division, they’ll have to compete with the always successful Cardinals and recently excellent Pirates. The Mets formidable pitching staff will return next year, the Giants have a way of appearing every even year, and the Dodgers spend the most money in baseball. Unexpected opponents could also jump to the forefront. As Epstein admits, “We have to put ourselves in a position where we have a chance to be great. So we can win the division and not have to go through the coin flip of being in the wild-card game. I’m not saying you can always get there. Some things are beyond your control.” To be great, the club probably needs to add an ace. A veteran to help stabilize the young lineup could also be useful.
  • The Mariners have promoted Tom Allison to head of both professional and amateur scouting, tweets John Manuel of Baseball America. Allison had previously served as Seattle’s head of pro scouting so the promotion is an expansion of duties. Per Manuel, Allison had a strong run as an amateur scout with the Diamondbacks from 2007 through 2010. He also worked with the Mets and Brewers in a scouting capacity from 1996 through 2006.

Managerial Notes: Gordon, Mattingly, Servais

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The Padres have interviewed former big-league reliever Tom Gordon for their open managerial position, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports. As Heyman notes, Gordon certainly would be an unusual candidate, since he has no managerial experience anywhere. He did, however, pitch 21 seasons in the big leagues. He is the father of Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon and top Twins shortstop prospect Nick Gordon. Here’s the rest of the latest on the Padres’ managerial search. And here are more notes on managers, all on the West divisions:

  • Don Mattingly’s separation from the Dodgers was amicable, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. The pressures of managing an expensive team with championship expectations weighted on Mattingly, as did whispers about whether he would be fired. When the two sides spoke on Monday, the Dodgers told him they were not interested in offering a long-term extension, which told him their commitment to him wasn’t strong. The new Dodgers front office would, evidently, prefer to hire its own manager, even though Mattingly was willing to work with the front office with its use of advanced metrics.
  • The Mariners are gambling that Scott Servais is the right hire for them despite his lack of managerial experience, John McGrath of the Tacoma News Tribune writes. As McGrath points out, gambles like this one are common nowadays: Mike Matheny of the Cardinals, Robin Ventura of the White Sox, Brad Ausmus of the Tigers, Walt Weiss of the Rockies, Craig Counsell of the Brewers and Kevin Cash of the Rays are, like Servais, all former players who lacked significant managerial experience before taking their current jobs.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Cards, Reds, Brewers

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As the Cubs head into the offseason, the team is expected to look at reviving many of the summer trade deadline talks that never came to fruition, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. As president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said yesterday, Chicago is after pitching. The team could rejoin its pursuit of pitchers such as Tyson Ross of the Padres, Julio Teheran of the Braves, and Carlos Carrasco of the Indians, per Wittenmyer. Interestingly, he adds that the Cubs are rather enamored of Indians converted outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall, who rather suddenly became an outstanding right fielder last year after moving off of third base. Wittenmyer says it wouldn’t be surprising to see Javier Baez, Starlin Castro, or Jorge Soler (or any two of them) moved for pitching this winter, adding that Atlanta is “especially high on Soler.”

Here are some more notes out of the NL Central:

  • The Cardinals could see some turnover this winter, and MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch takes a look at the overall roster situation. She notes that the organization may not be able to strike as quickly as it has in past offseasons if it makes Jason Heyward a priority, as his market may take a bit longer to come into focus. New reserve options at catcher and the middle infield could be pursued, and bullpen additions — possibly including a re-signing of Carlos Villanueva — appear likely.
  • Meanwhile, the Cardinals will maintain the same coaching staff for 2016, Langosch reports. The whole group had been invited back, and reached new agreements in short order. Serving under manager Mike Matheny once again will be bench coach David Bell, first base coach Chris Maloney, third base coach Jose Oquendo, pitching coach Derek Lilliquist, hitting coach John Mabry, assistant hitting coach Bill Mueller, and bullpen coach Blaise Ilsley.
  • The Reds have announced some coaching staff changes for 2016, with Mark Riggins taking over as the pitching coach and Tony Jaramillo joining the staff as assistant hitting coach. Per the club, Jim Riggleman will remain the bench coach under skipper Bryan Price, while Don Long (hitting), Billy Hatcher (third base), Freddie Benavides (first base), Mack Jenkins (bullpen), and Mike Stefanski (catching) all return.
  • In an inter-division switch, the Brewers have hired away Derek Johnson from the Cubs to serve as their pitching coach, David Kaplan of CSN Chicago and ESPN Chicago reports on Twitter. Johnson had served as the minor league pitching coordinator in Chicago after a lengthy stint at Vanderbilt University’s outstanding baseball program.

 

AL Notes: V-Mart, Orioles, Roberts, Pomeranz

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The Tigers’ signing of Victor Martinez to a four-year, $68MM contract last offseason was a decision that was largely driven by owner Mike Ilitch rather than former GM Dave Dombrowski, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Dombrowski wasn’t in favor of such a lofty number for the aging DH. Heyman adds that the Mariners were outbid on Martinez, which turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Seattle was comfortable going to three years and $45MM for V-Mart but turned its focus to Nelson Cruz after Martinez returned to the Tigers. While it’s unlikely that Cruz’s production will hold up to its current level through the final year of his four-year, $57MM deal, he was brilliant in his first season with the Mariners.

A few more notes from around the American League…

  • The Orioles will “at least kick the tires” on Ben Zobrist this winter, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, although I’d imagine they’ll be joined by about 20 teams in that pursuit. Nonetheless, Kubatko notes that manager Buck Showalter has long admired Zobrist’s versatility and would love to add him to the fold, and he has fans in the front office as well. The Orioles could find plenty of playing time for Zobrist in the corner outfield.
  • Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes that the Orioles will probably look to add a left-handed starter, if not two, to the mix this winter. Baltimore stands to lose Wei-Yin Chen and has no lefty replacements in the waiting, save for perhaps T.J. McFarland, who has made only seven starts (five in the minors and two in the Majors) since 2012. Connolly adds that while there’s interest in retaining Chen, the Orioles aren’t likely to retain him if he receives a five-year offer elsewhere.
  • The Mariners interviewed Padres bench coach Dave Roberts for their managerial opening, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Roberts received a pair of interviews and was considered a finalist for the job. However, Angels AGM Scott Servais will reportedly be announced as Seattle’s new skipper later today. Rosenthal adds that Roberts could be a fit for the Dodgers, though that suggestion seems at least partially speculative in nature.
  • The Athletics announced on Thursday that lefty Drew Pomeranz underwent clavicle resection surgery, as MLB.com’s Jane Lee writes. The recovery timetable for Pomeranz is set for roughly six weeks, and he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training. As Lee notes, Pomeranz pitched through shoulder troubles for much of the season, and this operation will hopefully alleviate those woes next year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $1.3MM salary for Pomeranz in his first run through the arbitration process.

Scott Servais A “Strong Front-Runner” For Mariners Manager

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Just-hired Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto decided largely to start from scratch in constructing his team’s field staff, parting ways with incumbent skipper Lloyd McClendon and many of his coaches. Now, the club is joining the managerial market as it looks to develop a group of uniformed personnel that meshes well with the new front office.

We’ll keep track of the latest in this post:

  • Servais is now the “strong front-runner” for the Mariners’ managerial opening, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times adds (also via Twitter) that Servais, like Dipoto, butted heads with manager Mike Scioscia at times and wasn’t expected to remain with the Angels.

Earlier Updates

  • Angels assistant GM/director of player development Scott Servais, who has been rumored to be a candidate to join the club’s front office, is “gaining traction” as a managerial candidate, reports Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Servais, of course, worked with Dipoto in the Angels’ front office but is said to have a desire to become a manager as well and has been linked to the Padres’ vacancy, too.
  • One source told Dutton that Dipoto is interviewing five candidates. If that’s the case, he notes, the list of candidates would seem to be Servais, Bogar, Varitek, Montoyo and Nevin.
  • Jon Heyman of CBS Sports hears that the Mariners have interviewed former big league catcher Jason Varitek for the position. Previous reports have indicated that it isn’t clear if Varitek would be interested in leaving his Boston-area home (and, more specifically, leaving his young children), so it’s not known if he will give the position serious consideration. Varitek doesn’t have managerial experience, though former major leaguers Brad Ausmus, Mike Matheny and Paul Molitor were all recently hired without prior experience.
  • Rays coach Charlie Montoyo interviewed today for the job, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports on Twitter. He served as the club’s third base coach this year after an eight-year run as the manager for the Triple-A Durham Bulls.
  • USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Mariners will interview Diamondbacks Triple-A manager and longtime Major Leaguer Phil Nevin (Twitter link). Nevin has been mentioned increasingly as a future Major League manager and has drawn interest from every club with a managerial vacancy this offseason.
  • Angels special assistant Tim Bogar, who was once the interim skipper for the Rangers, has been mentioned as a possible front-runner from the job. He and Dipoto are not only former teammates, but worked together recently in Los Angeles.
  • The club is also expected to show interest in a variety of other candidates. Among those mentioned thus far as at-least-hypothetical possibilities are Alex and Joey Cora, Padres bench coach Dave Roberts, Rays third base coach Charlie Montoya, former Pads manager Bud Black, long-time Mariners Raul Ibanez and Dan Wilson, and a host of others.

Heyman’s Latest: Harvey, Murphy, Kennedy, Wieters, Phillies

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Mets righty Matt Harvey and agent Scott Boras took out an insurance policy on the right-hander’s arm, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest Inside Baseball column. The policy covers a mere fraction of Harvey’s overall earning potential, says Heyman, but it does give him a bit of a safety net in the event that his workload following Tommy John surgery leads to future arm complications. Heyman notes that Harvey’s dominant outing in Game 1 of the NLCS “all but obliterated” other teams’ chances of trading for the right-hander, who was lauded by the Citi Field faithful. Never one to pass up the chance for a memorable quote, Boras said of Harvey’s performance on a cold New York evening: “Forget Batman. He’s Mr. Freeze.”

A few more highlights from the column…

  • While multiple reports have indicated that the Mets aren’t planning on giving Daniel Murphy a qualifying offer, one rival GM tells Heyman that they “absolutely have to” extend the QO on the heels of Murphy’s huge postseason. The GM added that Murphy should reject the offer and look to capitalize on the five homers he’s launched since the NLDS got underway.
  • The Padres appear to have interest in a reunion with starter Ian Kennedy, per the report. It’s likely, of course, that there will be competition. As Heyman notes, the 30-year-old righty has sustained the gains in velocity and strikeout rate that he showed last year — in fact, his 9.3 K/9 is second only to David Price among free agents — and has been a reliable source of innings for the last six years.
  • Catcher Matt Wieters will draw some open-market interest from the Rangers, but only if he avoids a qualifying offer. Texas would not have interest in giving up its first-round pick to ink Wieters, says Heyman.
  • The Phillies haven’t yet called Jim Hendry about their open GM seat. He teamed with new Philadelphia president Andy MacPhail with the Cubs. But Heyman writes that the Phils appear to be angling toward younger candidates. Though we haven’t heard much lately on the status of Kim Ng, one source says that she remains in the mix.

Quick Hits: Harvey, Baker, Pohlad, Cardinals

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Both the Royals and Mets hold a 2-0 lead in their respective League Championship Series following the Mets’ 4-1 win over the Cubs in Game 2 of the NLCS tonight.  Five Mets pitchers (including Noah Syndergaard, who threw 5 2/3 innings) held Chicago to five hits in the game while Jake Arrieta struggled, allowing four runs in just five innings of work.  The NLCS has an off-day Monday as the scene shifts to Wrigley Field, while the Blue Jays will try to get on the board in Game 3 of the ALCS at Rogers Centre.  Some news from around baseball…

  • Matt Harvey’s excellent start in Game 1 of the NLCS should end any trade speculation surrounding the ace righty, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald writes.  The innings-limit controversy between Harvey, Scott Boras and the Mets in September led to rumors that the Mets could look to part ways with Harvey this winter, though his postseason performance has surely gone a long way to erasing any hard feelings.
  • Dusty Baker spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Barry M. Bloom) about his desire to return to a dugout.  Baker said his recent interview with the Nationals “was good” and apparently he cleared up some misconceptions the Nats might’ve had about him.  “People think they know you through word of mouth, but it’s somebody else’s opinion. I mean, they don’t really know you until you talk to somebody. Then, it’s like, ’Wow, I didn’t know you were like that,’ ” Baker said.  It doesn’t look like the Padres have an interest in Baker as their next manager, however, as he said he contacted San Diego “and they said, ’Thanks for the interest.’ That was the extent of it.”
  • Twins owner Jim Pohlad discusses several topics in an interview with LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, including Torii Hunter’s future, Paul Molitor’s rookie season as manager and how the club is responding to their return to respectability.  In regards to payroll, Pohlad said that “we’re willing to do whatever it takes,” though there are apparently some limits.  “I will tell you that I’m not a huge fan of long-term contracts. It’s having to commit for so many years and there’s really only downside to the club. There’s hardly any instances where it has been upside, across baseball,” Pohlad said.
  • That comment from Pohlad is parsed by 1500 ESPN’s Derek Wetmore, who notes that several of the Twins’ recent long-term deals aren’t projecting to end well.  Still, Wetmore doesn’t think Pohlad is absolutely against long-term deals as a rule, and perhaps the owner could be more interested in contracts for fewer years but with a higher annual average value.
  • While the Cardinals haven’t missed a beat in the standings, their offense has been in slow decline for a few seasons, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  The Cards’ lineup has been propped up by statistical anomalies (an incredible average with runners in scoring position in 2013, for instance) and their run differential has been inflated by their great pitching and defense.  Power has been a particular issue over the last two seasons, though it’s possible more pop could come from within once youngsters Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk grow more accustomed to the majors.

Latest On Daniel Murphy, Mets

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While Daniel Murphy has been a one-man wrecking crew for the Mets this postseason, two team sources tell Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News that the club still isn’t planning to bring the second baseman back in 2016.  “He’s been great, really great, but it changes nothing,” one of the sources said.

It has been assumed for months that the Mets would install Dilson Herrera or Wilmer Flores at second base next season, with Murphy signing elsewhere as a free agent due to his ever-growing price tag.  “If they are keeping their payroll in the same neighborhood, they can’t afford to keep him,” one rival GM said. “He’s making $8 million now, will probably get a bump on that and he’s going to want some years….They already have all that money invested in Juan Lagares ($22.5 million) and Michael Cuddyer ($10 million) who are both back-ups now.  You can’t keep your payroll under control like that.”

Such news won’t be welcome to Mets fans, who have been annoyed by the team’s lack of spending for years as the club has rebuilt around young talent (or, according to some critics, been unable to spend due to the Wilpon family’s financial losses in the Bernie Madoff scandal).  There has even been speculation that the Mets may not issue a qualifying offer to Murphy, as the team is reportedly willing to let Murphy leave without getting a draft pick in return rather than risk him accepting the one-year, $15.8MM contract.  I polled MLBTR readers on the subject last week and only 27.94% of voters felt the Mets shouldn’t make Murphy a qualifying offer.

Murphy hit .281/.322/.449 with 14 homers in 538 PA in 2015 and has a .291/.331/.421 slash line over the last five seasons.  It was already unlikely that he would accept a QO given the lack of top-flight infielders on the free agent market, and it’s probably totally out of the question now given his playoff heroics.  Murphy was hitting .320/.320/.840 with four homers in 25 PA during this postseason heading into tonight’s Game 2 of the NLCS, and in his first at-bat tonight, he added to his hot streak with a two-run homer off of Jake Arrieta.  In a sign of just how feared Murphy has become this October, he was intentionally walked in his second at-bat to get to Yoenis Cespedes.

While it’s a small sample size, Joel Sherman of the New York Post notes that Murphy’s playoff run is impressing observers.  One scout says that Murphy “has been on everything, pulled for power more than I can ever remember and made me start to think if you put him in the right stadium would some of all those doubles he hits every year turn into 20-plus homers annually?”

Sherman hears from various executives and agents that Murphy may now be looking at a deal in the neighborhood of the four-year, $52MM contract Chase Headley signed with the Yankees last season, and perhaps more since Murphy has more positional versatility than Headley and is one of the league’s best contact hitters.  (Speaking of Headley, Sherman adds that the Padres offered Luke Gregerson to the Mets during the 2013-14 offseason for Murphy, who they saw as a possible Headley replacement.)  Those executives also made guesses as to where Murphy could sign this winter, with the Astros, Angels and Dodgers coming up as the most-cited options.

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