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Rosenthal On Headley, Napoli, Blue Jays, Angels

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Here's a look at the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..

  • Chase Headley is probably going to be traded by the July 31st deadline. The Padres plan to spend the next two months determining whether they can lock up the third baseman long term, but there are two problems with that.  For starters, Headley says he doesn't want to talk about a new deal during the season.  Secondly, it would be surprising to see San Diego crack $100MM to keep him.  Headley probably wants a better hitting environment and to play for a better team.  Meanwhile, there's no shortage of teams that would like to add him as Rosenthal says there could be at least a dozen clubs in the market for a third baseman, including the Dodgers, Cubs, and White Sox.
  • If Mike Napoli stays healthy and continues producing, the Red Sox first baseman will build his case for a multi-year deal in free agency.  Of course, Boston reduced their three-year offer to Napoli to one-year after learning he had a condition in both hips.  However, he's taking MRIs every three months to keep tabs on it and if the tests show that his condition is improved or stable, a team might be willing to extend a longer offer, especially since he's playing first base rather than catcher.
  • Josh Johnson is the Blue Jays' most obvious trade candidate but if the season becomes a train wreck, they'll have the ability to move virtually any player.  Jose Reyes is the only player signed beyond 2015 while most players on multi-year deals are signed at affordable prices and no one has a no-trade clause.  Brandon Morrow might be an interesting name as the club has lots of young pitching coming.  Of course, the Blue Jays have to fall out of things before considering such a move.
  • It's bad enough for the Angels that shortstop Jean Segura is blossoming into a star elsewhere, but they've also traded away an entire rotation's worth of talent in recent years.  The Halos sent Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs to Arizona for Dan Haren, Donn Roach to San Diego for Ernesto Frieri, and Johnny Hellweg to Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke deal.  On top of that, the Angels weakened their farm system by giving up their first and second round picks last year for Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson and their first round pick this year to ink Josh Hamilton.  Their top pick last year was No. 114, this year it'll be No. 59.

Poll: Will The Padres Extend Chase Headley?

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Third baseman Chase Headley has become the face of the Padres franchise following a breakout 2012 season that saw him finish fifth in the NL MVP voting. Headley hit .286/.376/.498 with 31 homers in his age-28 season, leading to a great deal of extension rumors.

Padres executive chairman Ron Fowler — part of the team's new ownership group — told reporters yesterday that the team was preparing to make a franchise-record offer to Headley. Unfortunately, they seem to have forgotten to mention that fact to Headley, leading to a puzzled reaction and a reiteration from their star third baseman that he doesn't want to discuss an extension during the season.

While that may be true, it's certainly possible that the allure of $75MM or more would change Headley's stance on negotiatons. There's also the possibility, as noted by Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, that Headley's reluctance toward a midseason extension increases the likelihood that he will be traded.

For what it's worth, Headley had great things to say about San Diego and added that he hopes extension talks can be revisited after the season. Whatever the outcome, it stands to reason that the Padres will have resolved the situation by Opening Day 2014. If he's reluctant to discuss an extension this season, it's even less likely that he'd want to do so in his contract year. And, if the Padres elect to trade Headley, he will need to be with his new team for the entire 2014 season to qualify for draft pick compensation.

West Notes: Beane, Padres, Mattingly

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Athletics GM Billy Beane is in favor of recognizing teams with the best regular-season records, NBC Sports' Joe Posnanski reports. Beane, who was quoted in Moneyball as saying his "s*** doesn't work in the playoffs," calls the postseason a "gauntlet of randomness."

"[W]e allow small sample sizes and random events to determine the champion. That’s how it is in baseball," says Beane. Each team plays 162 games in baseball, an enormous number, and both Beane and Posnanski feel that stellar performances in the regular season shouldn't be completely washed away by a bad performance in a short playoff series.

Posnanski suggests a system in which the playoffs and World Series still exist ("The playoffs are a great thing for our sport – I want to make that clear," Beane says), but Major League Baseball presents separate, and meaningful, awards for the teams with the best records in each league. It's an interesting idea, even if, as Alex Remington at FanGraphs points out, there's no chance it will happen. Here are more notes from the West Coast.

  • New Padres owner Ron Fowler told the media that the team planned to offer Chase Headley a contract extension, but Fowler never mentioned that to Headley, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes. That led to a surprised reaction from Headley, who said, "To be honest, this is not something we've discussed." 
  • The Dodgers have not yet extended the contract of manager Don Mattingly, who has only a team option in place next season, and Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles wonders why. But team president Stan Kasten says it's a non-issue. "The team has its option some time next fall. What’s wrong with just leaving it at that?" says Kasten. "The answer is nothing and it’s stupid to suggest otherwise. If he had a 10-year contract, but we weren’t happy with his performance, he wouldn’t be here next year, because they’re unrelated." The Dodgers are off to a 13-14 start this year.

Padres Preparing Franchise-Record Offer For Headley

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12:55pm: Headley tells MLB.com's Corey Brock that he is "flattered" by the concept of an offer and loves playing in San Diego, but makes it clear that he and his agent do not want to negotiate an extension during the season:

"We made it abundantly clear [before] that we didn't want to talk about it during the season. I didn't think that for me and for the team that it was good to get caught up with all of this during the season."

Headley made a point to say that he hopes the two sides can revisit negotiations after the 2013 season, citing a love of the fans, the city and the way he's been treated by the organization since he was drafted in the second round in 2005.

11:01am: The Padres aren't a team that is known for issuing massive contracts, but it appears that the team's new ownership is willing to change that perception in order to retain Chase Headley. Padres executive chairman Ron Fowler told Bill Center and Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune that by midseason the team offer Headley a multi-year contract that would make him the richest player in franchise history:

"Will it be 10 years? No," said Fowler. "We're not going to do something like that. But we will do an offer that will be the largest offer we've ever made to a player in San Diego history and think it will be very close to some of the numbers I read in the press."

Jake Peavy currently holds the Friars' franchise record for largest contract with a three-year, $52MM deal signed back in 2007. That was on top of a pre-existing $14.5MM contract with an $8MM club option, bringing the total Peavy commitment to $74MM for the 2005-12 seasons.

Headley is further along in his arbitration years than Peavy was at the signing of his extension, so the Padres will need to pay closer to market value for Headley's free agent years. The 28-year-old Headley is controlled through the 2014 season but told Center and Jenkins that an extension will require a lengthy commitment:

“A three-year deal would put me in the same position I am now in about a year and I don’t want to do this again,” Headley said.

I agree with the Union-Tribune duo in speculating that any extension for Headley would need to cover at least the next five seasons. Comparables for a Headley deal could include Evan Longoria and David Wright, both of whom signed extensions this offseason that valued their free agent seasons at roughly $17MM each. Assuming a $13MM salary for Headley's final arb year, an extension covering the 2015-18 seasons would cost $81MM at that rate. If Padres GM Josh Byrnes is able to secure a club option at $17MM for the 2019 season with a $4MM buyout, a five-year $85MM extension similar to the one Andre Ethier signed a year ago seems feasible.

Headley's agents at Excel Sports Management could push to make him the Padres' first $100MM player by increasing the guaranteed commitment to six seasons with a hefty buyout on an option for a seventh year. While Headley lacks the track record of most $100MM players, he's continued his 2012 production early this year. Another two months of elite production could help the case.

Back in August, majority owner John Moores sold the Padres to a group headed by Fowler and several members of the O'Malley family, who previously owned the Dodgers. It's possible that the new ownership, who purchased the team for $800MM, could use Headley as a way to begin a legacy and show the fans a commitment to winning.

NL Notes: Cashner, Rizzo, Phillies, Thome, Wheeler

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Padres pitcher Andrew Cashner feels that the January 2012 trade that sent him to San Diego (with Kyung-Min Na) for Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates was good for him and for Rizzo, Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. "I think it was a trade that certainly worked out well for both players involved," Cashner says. "The pitcher got to move to a pitcher’s ballpark. The hitter got to move to a hitter’s ballpark."

Rizzo, meanwhile, feels there wasn't a place for him in San Diego. "As soon as they traded for Yonder Alonso, I don’t think I was in the Padres’ plans," he says. "I can understand it. Yonder was probably better suited to Petco Park than I was." Rizzo had a strong season with the Cubs in 2012, while Cashner has struck out 19 batters in his first 19 1/3 innings in 2013 while showing off mid-90s velocity. Here are more notes from around the National League.

  • The Phillies face "major questions," Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci writes. Pitchers Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay will cost the team $64.5MM in 2013, but it's questionable whether the rest of the roster can support them, Verducci argues. Big expenditures on those three pitchers, plus star veterans Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, meant the Phillies had to build a cheap outfield, says Verducci. The biggest problem in the outfield so far this season, however, is that Domonic Brown and Ben Revere have struggled. Those players aren't highly-paid, but they also aren't on the roster merely because they're cheap. Revere posted 3.1 wins above replacement in 2012, and Brown was a highly-regarded prospect. "We have a lot of guys in the outfield who have never done it over a full season and are starting to get older, as far as being considered young players," a Phillies employee says.
  • Jim Thome, who played for the Phillies and Orioles in 2012, is hoping to return to baseball later this season, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. "He still thinks he can play," says Phillies manager Charlie Manuel. "He misses the game. Baseball is his identity. That’s all he’s done for 20-some years or so. He's kind of having a hard time adjusting."
  • Before a strong start today against Reno, top Mets prospect Zack Wheeler was struggling to adjust at Triple-A Las Vegas, John Harper of the New York Daily News writes. Mets fans are waiting for Wheeler to join the big-league rotation. "Obviously I want to be up there, but you can’t think about it because it will distract you, take your mind off what you’re trying to do down here," Wheeler says. Wheeler currently has a 4.80 ERA. Las Vegas is one of the toughest places to pitch in the minor leagues, however, and the fact that he's allowed a few too many runs there might not mean Wheeler isn't ready for the Majors, especially with 10.8 K/9 so far this year.

Padres Notes: Headley, Trades, Upton

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The Padres' 6-15 record is the second-worst in baseball and fans are starting to get impatient, judging by the tone of several questions (or just outright rants) posed to Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune during his latest online chat.  Here are a few of the hot stove notes from Center…

  • Some fans are calling for a fire sale but Center points out that such a move wouldn't be prudent given how many Padres are underachieving.  "Even if the Padres started unloading players, what would they get for what they have? Unfortunately, they couldn't sell high in very many areas right now. Honestly, unloading might only make it worse," Center writes.
  • Chase Headley is perhaps the only Padre that would fetch a premium return on the trade market, though Headley himself has struggled (.547 OPS) since returning from the DL.  Center notes that Headley's struggles could actually help the Padres long-term since it would lower Headley's price on a possible extension.
  • Since Headley is under team control through next season, Center doesn't think the Friars need to decide on the third baseman until mid-2014.  That said, losing Headley "might be a major blow to the new owners' already weakening perception among fans."  MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently looked at a few of the teams who might be interested in acquiring Headley should San Diego put him on the market this summer.
  • Center speculates that Carlos Quentin could be open to waiving his no-trade clause if he was dealt to an AL club where he could serve as a designated hitter. 
  • Josh Byrnes was given permission by team management to pursue a trade for Justin Upton this past winter.  The Diamondbacks wanted a package from the Padres that would've included Headley "and more" Major League talent, not only prospects.  Ultimately the D'Backs had concerns about dealing Upton to a division rival and the talks led nowhere.  Any San Diego/Arizona trade, of course, contains some extra baggage given that Byrnes used to be the Diamondbacks' GM and Kevin Towers is a former Padres general manager.
  • Firing Bud Black may not be the answer, as Center believes Black "has the same ingredients" as former Padres manager Bruce Bochy.  Despite Bochy's four division titles in 12 years as Padres' manager, the club let him go to the Giants, where he has since won two World Series championships.

NL Notes: Selig, Padres, Braves, Garza

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Commissioner Bud Selig says he wants his stewardship of the game to be judged by the value of MLB's franchises, writes Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal. He called the Dodgers' sale "stunning," and said that "every franchise is worth a lot more today … because the game is healthy." Selig also weighed in on the DH, saying that "some cataclysmic event" would be needed to keep the bat out of National League pitchers' hands. Here are some more notes from around the National League:

  • Padres GM Josh Byrnes is taking a hard look at the club's farm system to find a solution to the team's pitching woes, writes Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune. According to Fangraphs, the Padres' rotation has put up negative 1.4 WAR thus far, a full .5 WAR worse than the second-to-last Astros staff. Jenkins says that the front office's "unwillingness or failure" to supplement the team's less-than-promising rotation over the offseason is to blame for the club's present difficulties.  
  • Two in-house options for San Diego are minor league arms Tim Stauffer and Sean O'Sullivan, both of whom possess similar out clauses in their contracts, writes Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Center says that both pitchers can opt out around June 1 if they have not been elevated to the Padres' big league roster.
  • The emergence of catcher Evan Gattis could ultimately have an impact on the Braves' plans behind the dish, writes MLB.com's Mark Bowman. The team has benefitted enormously from his performance as stalwart Brian McCann works his way back from injury. But as Bowman says, the first-place Braves have every reason to try and work McCann back into his starting role, and still have Gerald Laird locked up for this year and next. On the other hand, with the Braves already unlikely to re-sign McCann after this season, Gattis's continued performance could make that decision much easier for the team.
  • Meanwhile, Bowman says the Braves were interested in locking up outfielder Jason Heyward and first baseman Freddie Freeman during the offseason. Despite the team's efforts to initiate talks, however, they were rebuffed by the young stars. Heyward currently stands to reach free agency in 2016, with Freeman following him in 2017.
  • Cubs starter Matt Garza suffered yet another setback, failing to make his first rehab start after suffering from what Cubs manager Dale Sveum called a "dead arm," writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribute. Garza is, however, scheduled for long toss tomorrow and should be set up for a comeback start soon, David Furones writes for MLB.com. Of course, the Cubs would like not only to benefit from Garza's work on the mound, but to begin his audition for teams looking for rotation help at the trade deadline. In addition to the already-noted Chase Utley, Garza is one of several players that ESPN's Buster Olney says (on Insider) to keep an eye on as trade season approaches. Others include Mets catcher John Buck and Indians reliever Chris Perez. 

Quick Hits: Cubs, Dodgers, Padres

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Former Red Sox GM and current Cubs president Theo Epstein, speaking along with Athletics GM Billy Beane at a panel discussion in Boston on Monday, says that the big problem facing big-payroll teams is how to spend their extra money, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal reports. New rules have made it difficult to splurge in the draft or in the international market, and more and more younger players are signing long-term deals that buy out free agent seasons. That leaves the free agent market as the next obvious place to find talent. Big-payroll teams have historically dominated the free agent market, of course, but with so many players signing long-term with their current clubs, the free agent talent pool will be shallower in the coming years than it once was. "It's one thing to have an advantage as far as the amount of dollars you have, but if there aren't effective places to spend that money, what do you do with that advantage?" says Epstein.

Beane, meanwhile, has a different take, lamenting that, as a small-payroll GM, he isn't able to keep his players longer. "If we could have one thing, it would be to draft, develop and keep our own players," he says. "Having capital, it's not just about signing free agents. Having capital allows you to take your Gio Gonzalez and keep him through the rest of his career." Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • Cubs GM Jed Hoyer gave manager Dale Sveum his vote of confidence Tuesday, MLB.com's Carrie Muskat reports. "We’re all in this together," says Hoyer. "We’ve struggled, it’s been painful to watch because we keep on squandering leads. That’s on Theo and that’s on me. We have to figure out ways to get better. We’re not the most talented team in the league right now." The Cubs are currently 5-13.
  • Dodgers team president Stan Kasten expects the team's currently-stratospheric payroll to decrease as the team adds more talent from the minors, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports. The Dodgers are focusing on scouting and development, Kasten says, so that, in the future, the payroll "is not going to be where it is." The Dodgers are currently 9-10 and have been racked by injuries.
  • Ted Lilly is scheduled to start for the Dodgers Wednesday, and he'll be the Dodgers' eighth starter in their first 20 games, MLB.com's Ken Gurnick points out. (The other seven are Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Chris Capuano, and Stephen Fife.) The Dodgers' quandary of what to do with their starting pitching depth was a major story in spring training, and the Dodgers did, in fact, deal Aaron Harang to the Rockies. But after a slew of injuries (including today's revelation that Billingsley will have Tommy John surgery), that starting pitching depth is no more.
  • Playing badly might or might not yield big dividends for the Padres, notes Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Krasovic quotes Baseball America's Jim Callis, who points out that the top five picks in the draft are much more valuable than other picks, but Krasovic also notes that the Padres haven't done so well lately with top picks like Matt Bush and Donavan Tate. The Padres are currently 5-14.
  • Veteran Eddie Bonine, who recently signed a minor-league deal with the Padres after being released by the Diamondbacks, is trying to make it back to the big leagues as a knuckleballer, MLB.com's Corey Brock reports. Bonine used the knuckleball as a secondary pitch in the past, throwing it 19% of the time as member of the Tigers bullpen in 2010. Bonine missed the 2012 season after having Tommy John surgery.

Minor Moves: D’Backs, Padres, Orioles

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We'll keep track of today's minor moves right here:

  • After being released by the Diamondbacks earlier today, right-handed pitcher Eddie Bonine has hooked on with the Padres, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Bonine was attempting a comeback from Tommy John surgery. The 31-year-old had not seen big league action since 2010, when he appeared in 47 games for the Tigers and put up a 4.63 ERA over 68 innings. After sitting out the 2012 season, he struggled to a 6.30 ERA in his ten Triple-A innings this year.
  • The Orioles signed second baseman Paco Figueroa to a minor league deal, reports Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Now 30, the former O's fringe prospect fizzled out at Triple-A in 2010 before being shipped to the Phils for cash or future considerations. Most recently, Figueroa struggled to a .259/.376/.314 line for the Phillies' Double-A affiliate in 2011, and spent 2012 in the independent leagues. As Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun notes (via Twitter), the former University of Miami star had the chance to play alongside his brother for Spain in this year's World Baseball Classic. 

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Quick Hits: Mariners Napoli, Cardinals, K-Rod

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The struggles of Jackie Bradley Jr. serve as a reminder that Spring Training stats are a mere "snapshot in time," writes SB Nation's Rob Neyer. He adds that Spring Training stats "describe the random nature of raw performance statistics as much as they describe fundamental abilities." Here are some links from around the league…

  • The excellent play of Endy Chavez is going to force the Mariners to make a roster decision, writes Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. With Michael Saunders coming off the DL next week, the team will have to make a move or carry six outfielders. Jason Bay seems like the most logical candidate as the odd man out, in my personal opinion.
  • There was a point this offseason where Brian Grieper, Mike Napoli's agent and friend, thought Napoli's career in baseball was over, writes WEEI.com's Alex Speier. Napoli was diagnosed with avascular necrosis in both hips this offseason but has been healthy through the early portion of the season.
  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is comfortable with the relievers he has despite the bullpen's struggles thus far, reports Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. As Strauss notes, it's difficult to find help from outside the organization at this point in the season.
  • The Marlins were never interested in Francisco Rodriguez, tweets Juan C. Rodriguez of the Miami Sun-Sentinel. K-Rod signed a minor league deal with the Brewers yesterday.
  • Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times writes that Padres president Tom Garfinkel apologized for the behind-closed-doors comments he made about Zack Greinke which were linked to the public. Garfinkel said flatly that Greinke threw at Carlos Quentin on purpose and also made comments which hinted at Greinke's previous battles with social anxiety disorder.
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