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Transaction Retrospection: The Mike Adams Trade

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Trade deadlines come and go every year, and in looking back we tend to remember the blockbuster deals. Few will forget last year's Hanley Ramirez deal or 2011's Ubaldo Jimenez trade (even if both teams involved would probably like to). Sometimes though, the smaller deals wind up yielding plentiful returns as well.

Such is the case with the Mike Adams trade of 2011. The last-place Padres shipped their ace setup man to the Rangers for minor league right-hander Joe Wieland (21 years old at the time) and left-hander Robbie Erlin (20 at the time). Here's a look at each of the players involved in this one…

The Major League Side

  • Mike Adams: The Padres initially landed Adams from the Indians in exchange for Brian Sikorski — a right-hander who threw 19 2/3 innings for Cleveland in a fourth-place season (whoops). AdamsAdams broke out in San Diego, posting a 1.66 ERA, 10.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 217 innings over parts of four seasons. It was more of the same in Texas following the swap, as Adams totaled 78 innings of 2.88 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 for the Rangers. Adams was controlled through 2012 at just $2.54MM, so GM Jon Daniels was able to secure a dominant relief arm for a year and a half. He proved to be a bullpen workhorse in the postseason, appearing in 11 of the Rangers' 17 games with a 3.24 ERA. Adams hit the open market this offseason, and not surprisingly he wasn't issued a qualifying offer. He signed a two-year, $12MM with the Phillies, ending his time in the Lone Star state.

The Minor League Side

  • Joe Wieland: A fourth-round pick in the 2008 draft, Wieland ranked as the Rangers' No. 22 prospect prior to the 2011 season, per Baseball America. His stock has soared since that ranking. Wieland reached the big leagues last year and ranks as the No. 8 prospect in San Diego according to BA and No. 7 per MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo. Wieland's minor league numbers are impressive: a 3.29 ERA, 8.4 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 438 innings. His 2012 season was cut short by Tommy John surgery, but Wieland posted a 4.55 ERA, 7.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in five starts. BA praises Wieland's plus command and four solid pitches. He sits 90-91 mph with his fastball and can run it up to 94 when needed. Mayo notes that all four of Wieland's pitches should be average or better, and both outlets agree that he's a mid-rotation starter if he realizes his potential. His surgery took place last July, so he should pitch again sometime in 2013.
  • Robbie Erlin: Erlin was the bigger prospect at the time of the trade, but BA and Mayo both agree that Wieland has leapfrogged him. BA has him 10th among Padres prospects while Mayo ranks him ninth. Erlin missed about three months of the 2012 season with elbow tendinitis, but was dominant in the 52 1/3 innings he did pitch at Double-A; the 2009 third-rounder posted a 2.92 ERA, 12.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. Erlin was impressive in the Arizona Fall League following his injury, finishing second the league with 31 strikeouts in 24 innings. He's undersized (5'11", 190 pounds) and lacks overpowering stuff, with BA noting that his fastball tops out at 92 mph. Mayo commends Erlin's approach of attacking hitters, adding that his pitchability and competitive nature allow his average offerings to play up. Erlin profiles as a No. 4 starter who will benefit from Petco Park, according to BA, and Mayo feels that he's on the brink of the big leagues.

Adams proved to be a durable, highly effective late-inning arm for the Rangers, while the Padres have attained a pair of mid-rotation arms if Erlin and Wieland can overcome their respective arm injuries. Wieland's improvements have helped to make this look like a very strong return for San Diego. Time will tell if Wieland and/or Erlin can stick as big league starters, but I'd have to imagine that San Diego would be thrilled with the trade if even one of the two could be a part of the rotation for the next few years.

Baseball America's 2013 Prospect Handbook was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cubs Claim Ransom; Designate Takahashi, Lillibridge

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The Cubs claimed infielder Cody Ransom off waivers from the Padres, GM Jed Hoyer told reporters including MLB.com's Carrie Muskat.  The team also purchased the contract of Kevin Gregg.  Sunday's waiver claim, Kameron Loe, is also joining the Cubs' bullpen, while reliever Hisanori Takahashi and infielder Brent Lillibridge were designated for assignment.  Second baseman Darwin Barney has been reinstated from the DL, as expected.

Ransom had been designated for assignment by the Padres on Friday.  The 37-year-old had the most exposure of his big league career last year, racking up a .220/.312/.411 line in 282 plate appearances for the Brewers and Diamondbacks.  If Ransom somehow sticks on the Cubs' roster, he'll be arbitration eligible after the season.

Takahashi, 38, was scored upon in two of his three appearances for the Cubs this year.  The lefty posted a 5.54 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.43 HR/9, and 37.1% groundball rate in 50 1/3 innings for the Angels and Pirates in 2012.  The Cubs' bullpen is already being retooled, with a 5.82 ERA in the early going.

Lillibridge, 29, had one hit in 24 plate appearances for the Cubs this year.  He played second and third base.  Lillibridge hit .195/.250/.274 in 209 plate appearances for the White Sox, Red Sox, and Indians last year.  He was part of a "numbers crunch," Hoyer told reporters including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.  With the recent additions of Ransom, Gregg, and Loe, the Cubs' 40-man roster remains full.

Future Chase Headley Suitors

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Padres third baseman Chase Headley aims to make his 2013 season debut this week after fracturing his thumb in March.  Headley, who turns 29 in May, has a lot of factors conspiring to make him a trade candidate this summer:

  • He's very good at baseball.  Headley's baseball card numbers last year were fantastic: 31 home runs and 115 RBIs.  He finished fifth in the NL MVP vote and snagged a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger.  He was worth 7.2 wins above replacement, sixth among all position players last year.
  • To date, the Padres have not signed him to a long-term contract extension.  There's good reason for this.  As a player who came into his power later in his team-controlled career, Headley wasn't necessarily worth extending until this past offseason.  Now, with only one season of more than 12 home runs on his resume, it's likely difficult to pin down a fair offer for both sides.  Still, star-caliber non-Boras guys with four-plus years of big league service who are not locked up are a rarity.  2014 will be Headley's contract year, so he may prefer to just play it out and get a piece of that free agent pie.
  • Headley is more than a rental, since he's under control through 2014.  Teams strongly prefer that when giving up top prospects in trades.  The general logic is that the Padres can get more for Headley this summer than during the offseason (assuming he plays decently upon his return).  Plus, even though the Padres have not reached an extension agreement with Headley, that exclusive extension window is valuable to some teams.
  • Though only 7.4% of their season is in the books, the Padres are not looking like contenders, with a 2-10 record.  This can change, of course, but the team would need to play .580 ball from here on out to reach 89 wins.

This raises the question: which contenders could use a middle of the order third baseman?  

  • The Yankees have Kevin Youkilis under contract, though Headley would be a better option at the hot corner.  Youk can also play first base, but Mark Teixeira will be back manning that position by the time trading season rolls around.  Travis Hafner seems a nice fit as the semi-regular designated hitter.  With his recovery from hip surgery and the Biogenesis situation, the Yankees shouldn't count on Alex Rodriguez for anything, but if he is able to play this year it will further clog up the third base and DH spots.  So while Headley would be nice to have, it'd be complicated, unless the Yankees suffer new injuries.
  • The Blue Jays are all-in this year, and if they gain some comfort with the idea of Brett Lawrie at second base, they could add Headley and keep Jose Bautista in right field.
  • The Royals appear set at third base with Mike Moustakas, but they could upgrade to Headley and include Moustakas in the trade.  This is another team that has invested a lot in winning now.
  • It's a similar situation for the Indians and Lonnie Chisenhall — it seems like he'd have to be part of the deal for them to make sense.  
  • Jeff Keppinger has been pressed into second base duty for the White Sox following Gordon Beckham's injury.  But either player could shift to a utility role with a Headley acquisition, or Beckham could be part of the deal.
  • The Athletics have Josh Donaldson at third base, but Headley would be an upgrade.  Same goes for the Angels and Alberto Callaspo.  
  • The National League is light on good trade partners for Headley at present, but the Braves are an obvious match.  He'd be a huge addition for a team that is looking great in the early going.
  • I won't completely rule out the Orioles, Cardinals, Pirates, Rockies, or Dodgers.  But whether due to third base incumbents or the reduced chances of an intra-division trade, these teams seem unlikely.

Quick Hits: 42, Ortiz, Quentin, Cubs

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Tomorrow is the 66th anniversary of Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier in baseball. Every player, coach, and umpire will honor Robinson by wearing his iconic jersey number 42 and it is a significant ritual appreciated by today's generation of players. "It's definitely one of those things you take a lot of pride in, putting on that jersey," said Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen (as quoted by MLB.com's Tom Singer). "What (Robinson) went through, stepping up and being that guy to take that important step…it's something we need to always remember." This weekend, the nation remembered the Hall of Famer by making the biopic 42 the domestic box office champion with $27.3MM in ticket sales. This is the first time a baseball movie has ever grossed more than $20MM in its opening weekend and is also an opening weekend record for any baseball-themed movie when adjusted for inflation, according to Forbes. Here's the latest news and notes from America's Pastime:

  • David Ortiz was scratched from his Triple-A rehab start today due to illness and it could become a very expensive setback, reports Tim Britton of the Providence Journal. Ortiz's 2014 salary will be cut by $2MM (from $15MM to $13MM), if he spends more than 20 days on the disabled list and day 20 is next Sunday. His next rehab start could come tomorrow.    
  • Carlos Quentin announced he has withdrawn his appeal and will start serving his eight-game suspension today (first reported by the USA Today's Bob Nightengale on Twitter). "I’ve had time to have dialogue with Major League Baseball and a chance for the players association to protect me and my rights as a player,” Quentin told reporters including Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “When that time passed, I’ve prepared to serve my suspension." Quentin will miss the Padres' three-game series against the Dodgers, which begins tomorrow in Los Angeles.
  • The Cubs could designate Brent Lillibridge or Alberto Gonzalez for assignment when Darwin Barney is activated from the disabled list on Tuesday, speculates the Daily Herald's Bruce Miles.

Cafardo On Willingham, Headley, Iglesias, Red Sox

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In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that MLB is working to address the lack of African-American participation in baseball, both on the field and in the stands.  While the RBI program [Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities] has seen more than 200 of its kids drafted to major league teams, Cafardo writes that it hasn't sparked the kind of interest that leads to a kid getting his friends together and playing an informal game at the park.  Here's more from today's column..

  • The feeling is that if the Twins aren’t in the race in early July, Josh Willingham would become available. “He’s a power righthanded bat that any contender could stick right in the middle of their lineup and get outstanding production,” said one National League GM. “You’d have to give something up, but he’d be worth the expenditure. He can really hit.”
  • Scouts and GMs say Chase Headley could be the most sought-after player at the trade deadline. Part of it is that the Padres star plays third, is a good hitter, and teams in contention believe he would really thrive if he played for a winner.
  • The Pirates really wanted shortstop Jose Iglesias in the Joel Hanrahan deal as their scouts felt he would eventually hit.  For now, it looks like his offense has improved.  “The Pirates really wanted a young shortstop they could build around and Iglesias was the guy they earmarked,” said one baseball executive. “The jury was out by some teams’ evaluations on him, but there was no denying his defense and no denying that he had a chance with the bat as he matured. Maybe that time has come.”
  • One scout who watched the Red Sox's Triple-A affiliate recently gave high marks to the club for their haul in last year's mega-deal with the Dodgers.  "If Ben Cherington never makes another trade he can rest assured that the two kids he got from the Dodgers [Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa] have tremendous arms."  The scout added that he would like to see the Red Sox continue to extend De La Rosa as a starter.
  • There’s a feeling among Astros personnel that Chris Carter, who was acquired from the A’s, could emerge as a 30-home run guy.  Carter has been hot after a 1-for-19 start to the season.

NL West Links: Quentin, Weiss, Upton, Giants

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Everyone knows Jackie Robinson's story but few remember the name of John Wright, the second African-American player to sign with the Dodgers just weeks after Robinson signed his contract.  Baseball America's Ryan Whirty details the brief career of Wright, a right-hander who struggled in the minors in 1946 and was back pitching in the Negro Leagues by 1947.

Here's the latest from the NL West…

  • Major League Baseball has announced the suspensions of Padres outfielder Carlos Quentin for eight games and Dodgers utilityman Jerry Hairston for one game for their parts in Thursday's brawl between the two teams.  Both men are appealing their suspensions, so both could be able to play when the Padres and Dodgers begin a three-game series on Monday, though Yahoo's Jeff Passan (Twitter link) feels MLB and the MLBPA will arrange for Quentin to miss Monday's game.
  • Zack Greinke, meanwhile, will be out of action for around eight weeks following surgery to fix his broken collarbone.  MLBTR's Steve Adams looked at the implications of Greinke's injury earlier today.
  • Rockies owner Dick Monfort talks to Mark Kiszla over the Denver Post about manager Walt Weiss' unusual one-year contract with the club.  Monfort admits the short-term deal was an "oversight" since he values loyalty in employees and usually operates on handshake agreements, and also said that the Rockies management team hired Weiss without first establishing his salary.
  • Diamondbacks president Derrick Hall told Arizona Sports 620 Radio's Doug & Wolf that he felt the Justin Upton trade has worked out for both the D'Backs and Braves.  "I would agree that ‘would he have had the same success here that he's had [in Atlanta] to start off the season, maybe not' sometimes players need a change of scenery for it to happen," Hall said.  "I mean this was just two different teams that had two different needs and it worked out well for both, not to mention we still have four prospects that we're going to be dealing with in the next few years."
  • Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic doesn't agree with Hall's belief that Upton needed a fresh start.  "But even if [Upton] did need a new environment, what happened to the environment here? What does that say about the environment you’re creating if a 25-year-old with his kind of ability can’t succeed in it anymore?" Piecoro asks.
  • While breaking down Tim Lincecum's struggles, Grantland's Jonah Keri noted that the success of the Giants' starting rotation has obscured the team's lack of pitching depth.  The Giants may need to explore a trade for a new starter later this season if Lincecum can't turn things around.  I tabbed 2013 as a Make Or Break Season for Lincecum since he'll need to regain his old form in order to fetch a nice free agent contract this winter.
  • In other NL West news from earlier today, I compiled a set of Padres notes while Steve Adams reviewed the Giants' offseason moves.

Padres Designate Cody Ransom For Assignment

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The Padres have designated infielder Cody Ransom for assignment, MLB.com's Corey Brock reports (Twitter link).  In a corresponding move, the Padres have purchased the contract of right-hander Thad Weber from Triple-A.

Ransom, 37, posted a .220/.312/.411 line and a career-best 11 homers over 282 PA with the Diamondbacks and Brewers in 2012.  This was by far the most playing time Ransom had ever received in a season, as the veteran chalked up just 383 plate appearances from 2001-2011.  Ransom signed a minor league deal with San Diego in December and was 0-for-11 in limited action with the Padres this season.

Padres Notes: Quentin, Byrnes, Maybin, Roster

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The brawl between the Padres and Dodgers last night left Zack Greinke sidelined for several weeks with a broken collarbone and put Carlos Quentin squarely in the media spotlight for charging the mound.  CBS Sports' Jon Heyman and FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi both feel Major League Baseball should hand Quentin a significant penalty — Heyman suggests a 15-game suspension while Morosi opines that Quentin should be out for at least a month for seeking "vigilante justice" against Greinke.  It may be a while before Quentin misses any action given that the outfielder is likely to appeal any suspension leveled against him by the league.

As the Padres kick off a series against the Rockies at Petco Park tonight, here are some more items out of sunny San Diego… 

  • Padres GM Josh Byrnes seems to have won the favor of the club's new ownership group, Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.  New owners are often apt to bring in their own general managers though in the Padres' case, firing Byrnes would be costly given that he is under contract through the 2017 season.
  • In his weekly chat with fans, Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune notes that Byrnes will likely "blow up the roster" (in the words of one fan) should the Padres fail to match last year's 76-86 record.
  • Also from Center, Cameron Maybin has "no trade value" given his struggles at the plate and the roughly $22.8MM owed to him through the 2016 season.  Maybin signed the five-year, $25MM extension prior to the 2012 campaign but hit just .243/.306/.349 last season and has just two hits in 27 AB to begin this season.
  • From earlier today on MLBTR, the Padres signed first baseman Brandon Allen to a minor league contract.

MLBTR's Steve Adams also contributed to this post

Minor Moves: Burroughs, Henn, Allen, Gonzalez

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We'll keep track of Friday's minor moves right here…

  • Infielder Sean Burroughs has signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (on Twitter). Burroughs last appeared in the Majors with the Twins in 2012 but was designated for assignment after just 18 plate appearances. The former top prospect returned to baseball in 2011.
  • Within that same tweet, Eddy notes that the Mets have signed left-hander Sean Henn to a minor league deal. The 31-year-old Henn's last big league action was split between the Twins and Orioles in 2009. He has a 7.56 ERA in 81 career innings with more walks (64) than strikeouts (62).
  • Still from Eddy's jam-packed tweet, the Padres have inked first baseman Brandon Allen to a minor league contract. The 27-year-old has a career .203/.290/.375 Major League batting line in 389 plate appearances.
  • The Blue Jays announced that right-hander Edgar Gonzalez has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Buffalo in order to make room for Casper Wells on the 40-man roster. Toronto claimed the 30-year-old Gonzalez off waivers just five days ago.
  • Suspended right-hander Mark Hamburger has signed with the independent league St. Paul Saints, writes Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (at the bottom of the article). The 26-year-old tested positive for an undisclosed drug last season. He has appeared in eight Major League innings for the Rangers with a 4.50 ERA and was once traded for Eddie Guardado.

The Implications Of Zack Greinke’s Injury

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When the Dodgers spent $147MM on Zack Greinke this offseason, they were expecting 33 starts per season of an ace-caliber pitcher. Instead, Greinke will now find himself on the shelf for a significant portion of time following a brawl in the Dodgers-Padres game that broke out after he hit Carlos Quentin in the shoulder with a pitch.

Two things are clear here. The move has serious financial and roster implications for the Dodgers, and Quentin is a lock to be suspended. What does that mean, specifically, for the involved parties? It depends on how long Greinke is out for, first of all, which has yet to be announced. ESPN's Jayson Stark notes that recent history shows this type of injury has a recovery time of anywhere from one to three months (All Twitter links). Marlins catcher Jeff Mathis broke his collarbone in late February and is hoping to return in early May. Clint Barmes broke his collarbone in 2005 and was on the shelf for three months. The only pitcher Stark could find who suffered the injury was Chris Bosio, who missed a month.

Greinke is earning $17MM in the 2013 season, which is 182 calendar days long. Assuming a timetable of 30 to 90 days (roughly one to three months), the Dodgers figure to be out somewhere between $2.8MM and $8.4MM of this year's investment in Greinke. That's a sizeable chunk of salary, although they could have an insurance policy on the contract that will cover a portion of the injury.

This also means that the Dodgers' former surplus of starting pitching has likely been sorted out for the time being. With Aaron Harang now in Seattle, the Dodgers can place one of Ted Lilly or Chris Capuano in the rotation, with the other serving as a long reliever. It seems likely that it will be Lilly who is placed in the rotation; MLB.com's Ken Gurnick recently noted that he's been building up arm strength to throw 90+ pitches again and the Dodgers are concerned about how frequent warm-ups would affect his "delicate shoulder." Capuano, meanwhile, has already been in the 'pen for the early portion of the season. Both hurlers figure to be firmly off the trade market now.

As far as Quentin goes, the left fielder signed a three-year, $27MM extension with the Padres last year and is slated to make $9.5MM this season. In other words, Quentin is paid just over $52,000 per day during the season. So multiply that number by the amount of days in his eventual unpaid suspension, and it becomes a costly confrontation for him on a personal level as well.

Matt Kemp and Jerry Hairston Jr. also played roles in the altercation. Kemp was particularly vocal during the fray and eventually pursued Quentin after the game, leading to a confrontation that is chronicled here by Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times. Hairston charged toward the Padres' dugout after the field had been cleared, later explaining to reporters that an undisclosed Padres player was mocking Greinke's injury. It's unclear at this time if there will be any punishment handed out for Kemp and Hairston, but presumably they're in line for fines as opposed to suspensions.

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