Small Market Teams Time Free Agent Bids Carefully
If MLB teams want to sign top free agents, they can’t wait much longer than the Winter Meetings. But if they can’t afford to sign elite players, they generally keep waiting. The Rays, for example, will likely see Carl Crawford and Rafael Soriano sign elsewhere, since they are rarely able to bid aggressively on free agents early in the winter.
“We don’t necessarily have the resources ever,” Rays president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told MLBTR at the GM Meetings in Orlando.
It doesn’t take long to review the early forays into free agency that Friedman has made since taking over baseball operations late in 2005. They signed Akinori Iwamura to a three-year $7.7MM deal in December, 2006, added Troy Percival on a two-year $8MM deal in November, 2007, signed Joe Nelson to a one-year deal in December, 2008 and signed Rafael Soriano to a one-year deal in December, 2009.
Other than those four signings, the Rays have added all their big league free agents in January or February. History suggests the Rays will be patient this offseason, but Friedman says he isn’t necessarily going to wait the market out.
“It’s something for us that most likely it plays out [late],” Friedman said. “But sometimes there are guys who really want to sign earlier, have that peace of mind and I think we’ll be prepared enough to know which guys to move more aggressively on than others.”
Two offseasons ago, Oliver Perez, Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Dennys Reyes, Juan Cruz and Ty Wigginton were the only free agents to sign multi-year deals between February 1st and the beginning of the season. Last offseason, no free agent signed a multi-year deal between February 1st and the beginning of the season and Johnny Damon, Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera and Kevin Gregg were the only free agents to sign for more than $2MM in guaranteed money after February 1st.
There is no question that spending slows down later in the winter. It’s partly because there are fewer players to spend on and partly because the players remaining have less leverage. There is a limited number of major league jobs, (especially at DH and closer) so unsigned players don’t have much bargaining power if they want to play.
That’s why Padres GM Jed Hoyer is likely to wait a couple months before replacing Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica.
“I think frankly we’ll do a lot of our damage late in the offseason as opposed to early, given the market,” Hoyer said. “So we’ll probably wait and we will probably add some relievers, but I have a feeling it’ll be later in the offseason.”
Small market teams like the Padres and Rays wait patiently and spend cautiously because they can’t afford to make Carl Pavano-sized mistakes.
“Our margin for error is significantly less than our competitors',” Friedman said. “And so it obviously makes it that much more challenging.”
The Rays did spend considerably more than usual in 2010, when they opened the season with a $72.8MM payroll. As they prepare to field a less expensive team, the Rays are looking ahead beyond 2011.
“The one mistake we can't make is treat each year like a disparate event and try to be as good as we can that year without being mindful of the future years,” Friedman said. “And so people talk a lot about 2010, that we went all in and I would agree with that from a financial standpoint. We way over-extended ourselves to field the team that we did, but we definitely didn’t from a talent standpoint. We didn’t trade off a lot of guys that are going to be key members of the 2011 and beyond.”
Call it a balancing act, call it a waiting game, the Rays’ approach has earned them a pair of division titles and, back in 2008, even more success.
“We won the American League Championship with a mid 40s payroll,” Friedman said with a grin. “It’s doable [but] it’s obviously very difficult.”
Padres Will Tender Ryan Ludwick A Contract
The Padres will offer Ryan Ludwick a contract through arbitration, GM Jed Hoyer told MLBTR. The Padres have limited payroll and a surplus of outfielders that includes Cameron Maybin, Kyle Blanks, Will Venable, Scott Hairston, Chris Denorfia, Aaron Cunningham and Tony Gwynn, so MLBTR had identified Ludwick as a non-tender candidate. But Hoyer says he's comfortable having outfield depth, so the Padres will offer Ludwick arbitraiton.
The 32-year-old is heading into his final season before free agency. He earned 5.45MM in 2010 and has hit 76 home runs over the course of the past three seasons, so he'll surpass the $6MM mark in 2011 and could earn close to $7MM. Hoyer says it's a fair price for an outfielder as powerful as Ludwick.
Jeff Fletcher of AOL FanHouse said on Twitter yesterday that Ludwick would be offered arbitration.
Torrealba Cutting Ties With Padres
The Padres view Nick Hundley as their starting catcher of the future, and Yorvit Torrealba isn't looking to take a diminshed role or salary. While the 32-year-old had already declined his side of a $3.5MM mutual option, he further confirmed his bachelorhood in a phone interview with Carlos Alberto Gonzalez of Lider en Deportes (link in Spanish) yesterday, saying:
"It's not very likely that I'll continue with the Padres, because they want to reduce payroll and they're offering me much less than I had hoped; in fact, they want to give me less than I made this year."
And it's not just his own case that soured Torrealba on the Padres. He also questioned the team's approach to its star players, saying, "It seems like they want to get rid of Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell." In the short term, Torrealba said his agent will be at the winter meetings this week trying to wrangle a two-year deal, preferably from a National League team. His former team the Rockies are the only NL team he noted as having called him thus far, while from the American League he has received queries from the Mariners, Rangers, and Red Sox.
In platoon duty with the Rockies and Padres over the last two years, Torrealba has shown he can still get on base at around a .350 clip and respectably control the running game. He threw out 37% of would-be base stealers last season in just under 800 innings, his best marks in both categories since 2007 and 2006, respectively. Torrealba generally shows more power against right-handed pitching, but his OBP has actually been higher against left-handers in three of the last four seasons, and his .698 OPS against lefties this season was higher than a number of higher-profile regulars, including fellow free agent A.J. Pierzynski.
MLBTR's Tim Dierkes sees Torrealba taking over first-string catching duties from Russell Martin in Los Angeles, though a reuinion of the Torrealba/Chris Iannetta platoon that put the Rockies near the top in catcher OPS leaguewide in 2008 and 2009 could also be interesting. However, if the catcher has his eyes on something closer to a full-time role than he had in San Diego, one of the AL squads he mentioned could be his best bet. On the Padres' side, they have one more week to offer Torrealba arbitration and potentially earn another draft pick if the catcher—who is a type B free agent—follows through and signs elsewhere.
Hoyer Talks San Diego Outfielders, Relievers
Last year this time, Jed Hoyer was two weeks into his tenure as Padres GM. Now, he's attending the Orlando GM Meetings with a better sense of his club and a surplus of outfielders. He told MLBTR that he likes having outfield depth, but Cameron Maybin, Ryan Ludwick, Kyle Blanks, Will Venable, Scott Hairston, Chris Denorfia, Aaron Cunningham and Tony Gwynn won't all end up on next season's Opening Day roster and Hoyer did acknowledge that a trade is possible.
"Whenever you have surplus, if a team asks about a guy, you're always going to be willing to listen," Hoyer said.
The Padres like Venable in right and Maybin in center. Tony Gwynn's 2011 role has been unclear since the Marlins sent Maybin to San Diego. He is a non-tender candidate (like Ludwick, Hairston and Denorfia) but Hoyer says Gwynn could be covering even more ground than usual at Petco Park next year.
"He's a guy we can use in all three outfield spots and going forward that's probably how we think of him," Hoyer said.
The Maybin trade left the Padres short on relievers, but don't expect immediate additions to the San Diego 'pen. The Padres are likely to replace the recently-traded Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica with other relievers later in the winter. As expected, Hoyer says the Padres will do a lot of their "damage" late in the offseason.
Melvin: “We’re Not Shopping Prince”
Prince Fielder has just one more year to go before becoming eligible for free agency, and as a result many around the game expect the Brewers to shop their hulking first baseman. GM Doug Melvin told USA Today's Bob Nightengale that isn't the case however, saying explicitly "We're not shopping Prince." Here's the full quote…
"We're not shopping Prince,'' said the Brewers GM. "I'd like to keep him. He's a homegrown player who wants to play every inning of every game. But we'd like to get something done by the end of the off-season. I don't want to negotiate during the year.''
Melvin indicated that the end of Spring Training is the team's deadline for working out an extension with their two-time All Star. Fielder, 26 and a Scott Boras client, is a .279/.385/.535 career hitter, averaging 38 home runs in his five full seasons as a big leaguer.
Nightengale also lists a number of players that are already "under discussion," including Zack Greinke, Dan Uggla, Adrian Gonzalez, Bobby Jenks, Jonathan Papelbon, Nick Swisher, Jason Bartlett, Mark Reynolds, and both Justin and B.J. Upton.
Non-Tender Candidate: Tony Gwynn Jr.
Even before they acquired Cameron Maybin, the Padres had more outfielders than jobs. Ryan Ludwick, Kyle Blanks, Will Venable, Scott Hairston, Chris Denorfia, Aaron Cunningham and Tony Gwynn Jr. are all options in San Diego, but the Padres can't hand big league jobs to all of those players in 2011. Not only do they have limited roster space, they have limited payroll.
With more outfielders than jobs and a number of holes to address on a limited budget, GM Jed Hoyer will likely consider non-tendering some of his arbitration eligible players. Ludwick is one candidate to be non-tendered and Hairston and Denorfia are others, but today we'll examine the case for Gwynn.
A top defender, Gwynn fits in Petco Park for the same reasons the Padres acquired Maybin. Last year Gwynn stole 17 bases (21 attempts) and his career 18.4 UZR/150 is spectacular. However, he doesn't have the same offensive upside as Maybin. He has never posted an OPS above .700. and last year he batted just .204/.304/.287 in 339 plate appearances.
Gwynn, 28, is arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason and could be in line for a salary of $1MM or so. That's more than any team wants to pay for a fifth outfielder and the Padres don't have as much room for error as big market teams. That doesn't mean Gwynn will be non-tendered, though. The Padres could keep him and cut others or tender him a contract and flip him to a team looking for a defense-first outfielder. Click here to predict what the Padres will do and here to view the results.
Rosenthal On Brewers, Doubront, Marlins, Barmes
In case there was any doubt, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Brewers aren't going to trade Ryan Braun. However, the Brewers are open to trading any of their other top hitters for rotation help. That means Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee and, of course, Prince Fielder would be available in the right deal. Here are the details and the rest of Rosenthal's rumors:
- The Brewers don't want to trade top players for back-of-the-rotation starters, but teams are reluctant to include top young pitchers in potential deals.
- The Padres have spoken repeatedly to the Brewers about minor league infielder Brett Lawrie, who could be obtained for young pitching.
- Adrian Gonzalez is still drawing trade interest, even though he won't be ready to swing a bat until the end of Spring Training.
- Two GMs tell Rosenthal that the Red Sox are open to trading Felix Doubront. One says Boston would part with the left-hander "in a heartbeat" and the other guaranteed the Red Sox will trade him by mid-summer. Red Sox GM Theo Epstein told Rosenthal that the Red Sox "value Felix tremendously" and that the report "couldn't be further from the truth."
- Every young Orioles pitcher "could be in play for the right bat," Rosenthal reports.
- If the Marlins trade Dan Uggla, they would use the savings to sign at least one free agent. John Buck is a target for the Marlins regardless of whether they trade or extend Uggla.
- The A's don't have interest in Mark Reynolds.
- The Rockies are drawing lots of interest in Clint Barmes. They could trade or non-tender the infielder if they aren't able to sign him to a multi-year contract.
- Cody Ross and Javier Lopez are strong candidates to receive extensions from the Giants.
Odds & Ends: Headley, D’Backs, Angels, Cardinals
Links for Sunday….
- Dan Hayes of The North County Times says that Chase Headley's impending raise as a Super Two player is giving the Padres some payroll-related headaches. He adds that GM Jed Hoyer mentioned that this offseason will be similar to last, in that most of the team's signings will occur in January and February.
- MLB.com's John Schlegel looks ahead to some of the big trades we might see this winter.
- Yahoo's Tim Brown tweets that the Diamondbacks are expected to hire Billy Ryan from the commissioner's office to be Kevin Towers' second in command.
- The Angels' catching depth will likely be a hot topic at the upcoming GM meetings, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
- While the Cardinals have a few positions that could be addressed, John Mozeliak will likely prioritize a shortstop upgrade this winter, writes Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
- In his latest ESPN.com blog entry (Insider required), Buster Olney explains why Scott Downs' Type A status shouldn't limit his opportunities.
- Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe provides an extensive list of possible trade candidates in his preview of the offseason market.
- There are a few red flags to consider when weighing the Mets' managerial candidates, says Bill Madden of the New York Daily News.
- DEA agents intercepted a package containing "nearly 50" pre-loaded syringes of HGH that was sent to Jose Guillen's San Francisco address in September, according to a New York Daily News report. The writers' sources say that MLB is "actively pursuing information about the shipment," since a violation of the league's drug policy could result in discipline for Guillen.
Odds & Ends: Lopes, Maybin, Farrell, Cubs, Cousins
Links for Saturday…
- Newsday's Ken Davidoff provides a primer for next week's GM Meetings in Orlando. MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith will be on the scene there Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times tweets that former Phillies' first base coach Davey Lopes is close to joining the Dodgers' coaching staff in an unknown capacity.
- Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse analyzes the Cameron Maybin trade, saying the outfielder doesn't need to develop into a star to represent an upgrade for the Padres.
- Richard Griffin of The Star has a one-on-one interview with new Blue Jays manager John Farrell.
- Cubs GM Jim Hendry told Gordon Wittenmyer of The Chicago Sun Times that he's not worried about making a splash this offseason, but that it's "really imperative that we have two or three really good moves."
- MLB.com's Joe Frisaro says that in the wake of the Maybin deal, the Marlins will give Scott Cousins a long look in center field next year (Twitter link).
- Meanwhile, Padres GM Jed Hoyer told Dan Hayes of The North County Times that Maybin is "exactly the type of player we hoped to acquire for Petco Park." (Twitter link)
- MLB.com's Jason Beck states the obvious, saying that the Marlins probably would have been better off keeping Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis and then taking the draft picks when they left as free agents. I'm not sure that keeping those two would have been financially possible, though.
- Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com writes that after catcher Erik Kratz signed with the Phillies, the Pirates will now have to bring in a catcher or two to provide depth at the Triple-A level.
- The Nationals have signed righty reliever Tim Wood to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com. Wood, who turns 28 on Tuesday, appeared in 44 games with the Marlins over the last two seasons, pitching to a 4.32 ERA with nearly as many walks (25) as strikeouts (26) in 50 innings.
- ESPN's Buster Olney expects the Cardinals to aggressively pursue Juan Uribe since they could use him at pretty much any of their non-first base infield positions (Twitter link).
- Michael Silverman of The Boston Herald reports that GM Theo Epstein said the team has talked to Kevin Youkilis about moving to third base in the event that they are unable to re-sign Adrian Beltre, who we learned is one of their priorities.
- Meanwhile, Alex Speier of WEEI.com separates fact from fiction with regards to Scott Boras' claims about Beltre.
- SI.com's Melissa Segura tweets that a new league launched in the Dominican Republic yesterday, and it features the top young free agent players the country has to offer.
Padres Acquire Cameron Maybin From Marlins
The Padres have acquired Cameron Maybin from the Marlins, according to Tom Krasovic of Fanhouse (via Twitter). Florida will receive relievers Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica in exchange for the center fielder, Krasovic tweets. The Marlins have announced that the deal is now official.
The deal will provide Maybin with a much needed change of scenery, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes (via Twitter). The 23-year-old has yet to realize his potential after coming over to the Marlins in the 2007 Miguel Cabrera–Dontrelle Willis trade. Maybin's performance at the plate was particularly disappointing this season as he hit .234/.302/.361 with eight homers in 322 plate appearances. His arrival presumably bumps Tony Gwynn from the Padres' starting lineup and makes him an even more likely non-tender candidate.
The 6'6" Webb appears to be the key to the trade, Krasovic tweets. The right-hander could be a set-up man for the Fish and is not yet arbitration-eligible. Heading into the 2010 season, Baseball America rated Webb as the 24th best prospect in San Diego's system. The 24-year-old has a 94-96 mph fastball with a strong mid-80s curveball, according to the publication. In 54 big league games this year, Webb registered a 2.90 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.
Meanwhile, Mujica is arbitration eligible for the first time this winter. The 26-year-old hurler turned in a 3.62 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 0.8 BB/9 across 59 games this year.