Heyman On Howard, Pujols, Adrian, Werth
The latest hot stove thoughts from SI's Jon Heyman…
- The people Heyman talked to feel that with Ryan Howard averaging $25MM a year starting in 2012, a contract discussion for Albert Pujols has to start at $30MM a year.
- Heyman says that "the belief among skeptics of the deal that [the Howard extension] was an obvious overpay isn't reflected one bit among baseball people." Of course, there are hundreds of baseball people, and the ones I've spoken to agree with the skeptics.
- Adrian Gonzalez's agent John Boggs said, "We're just kind of innocent bystanders," noting that the Padres have not made contact about an extension.
- Jayson Werth's agent Jeff Borris believes his client will be "the premier free agent outfielder" if he doesn't sign an extension. Looking at the list, only Carl Crawford would have an argument. Heyman says there's a "belief around baseball" that Werth will be seeking $100MM. Previously we've heard suggestions of the four-year, $66MM Jason Bay range.
- Heyman says Stephen Strasburg has a contract clause that "permits 100 innings at the major-league level this year." I haven't heard of any clauses of that nature before, but Strasburg and Scott Boras is a powerful pairing.
What Does The Howard Extension Mean For Other Players?
The early verdict on Ryan Howard's five-year, $125MM contract extension isn't pretty from the point of view of several pundits, but the deal has to be great news for other slugging first basemen who may soon be hitting the free agent market. Here are some opinions on how Howard's contract will impact other major players…
- Fanhouse's Tom Krasovic spoke to John Boggs, who represents Adrian Gonzalez. Boggs feels that "[Howard's deal] bodes well for Adrian Gonzalez, because it validates the fact that he's worth that kind of money or more." Boggs noted that there have been no talks of an extension with the Padres, who have a $5.5MM club option on Gonzalez for the 2011 season that they're sure to exercise. Given Gonzalez's youth (he will be 29 when he hits free agency), great away splits (his lifetime line of .264/.365/.443 at PETCO Park is well below his .282/.364/.510 career line) and steadily improving glove (he has posted positive UZR/150 numbers over the last two years), he looks to be a strong bet to get a contract larger than Howard's from a team other than San Diego.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch looks at Howard's place in largest-contract history, and notes that Albert Pujols "figures to zoom by" the Phillies' slugger. Indeed, if the Cardinals had signed Pujols to a five-year, $125MM extension, they would be doing jumping jacks in St. Louis right now. The Cardinals have a no-brainer $16MM option on Pujols for 2011, and no matter if Pujols re-signs in St. Louis or goes elsewhere, he'll be looking at a contract with an average annual value of over $30MM. Braves manager Bobby Cox told Goold Pujols is worth $50MM a year in light of Howard's deal.
- Prince Fielder is eliglble for arbitration this winter and can also be a free agent after the 2011 season. We've already heard whispers about the size of the deal that Fielder is looking for, and he will be just 27 when he hits the free agent market. Fielder, however, has to deal with question marks about his long-term fitness and his fielding ability (a -6.2 career UZR/150), but agent Scott Boras will no doubt have his best counter-argument prepared to rebut those concerns. With Boras at the negotiating table, it's very unlikely the Brewers will get a hometown discount.
- Pablo Sandoval is under San Francisco's control through 2014, but Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News points out that Howard's extension is a "great lesson" to Sandoval that getting in better shape can lead to bigger money in the future.
Rosenthal On Kurt Suzuki, Heath Bell, Dusty Baker
A look at the latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…
- Rosenthal explains why we shouldn't expect the A's to make catcher Kurt Suzuki available in trade. He suggests that if Suzuki did become available, the demand to acquire three-plus years of his services would exceed Cleveland's return last summer for Victor Martinez. Suzuki hasn't had extension talks with the A's, though John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweeted that he's open to the idea.
- Although the Twins explored trades for closers after Joe Nathan went down, they "never had a formal discussion with the Padres about Heath Bell." He may not be a big strikeout guy, but Jon Rauch has done a solid job so far in saving six out of seven.
- Rosenthal says Dusty Baker asked the Reds about a contract extension, but "evidently the team is not yet ready to decide upon his future."
2011 Contract Issues: San Diego Padres
The Padres face four contractual options after the season:
- Starting pitcher Chris Young has an $8.5MM club option. This year he made his April 6th debut start before hitting the disabled list with a strain of his surgically-repaired shoulder. This DL stint appears minor, but looking at the bigger picture the Padres will likely decline Young's option.
- Adrian Gonzalez's $5.5MM club option for 2011 is a mere formality.
- The Padres have a pair of mutual options in Jon Garland and Yorvit Torrealba. It's rare to see both sides exercise such an option.
Four more players are up for free agency: Kevin Correia, David Eckstein, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Matt Stairs. The four make a combined $7.425MM in 2010. Young, Garland, and Torrealba make $11.7MM, bringing the total freed up to $19.125MM (minus a million or so in buyouts). So, about $18MM will come off the books if everyone but Gonzalez leaves.
Gonzalez will get a $750K bump; that's it for players under contract. First-time arbitration-eligibles include Tony Gwynn Jr., Edward Mujica, and Tim Stauffer. Mike Adams will go for a second time, while Heath Bell and Scott Hairston go for a third. Regarding Bell, we may have overestimated his potential raise in suggesting earlier that he could double his $4MM salary. Think $6-7MM instead.
Even holding payroll at $38MM and retaining all arbitration-eligible players, the Padres would have over $10MM to spend in the winter of 2010-11. A few midseason trades, a handful of non-tenders, and a higher payroll would increase the spending money.
Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Orioles, Griffey, Braves
FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal has a new Full Count video up, so let's see what he has for us…
- The Orioles will almost certainly be the first team to fire their manager this season, and both Bob Melvin and Bobby Valentine came up in past internal discussions. Bigger jobs are in store for Valentine, but Buck Showalter might also be a candidate. Rosenthal reminds us that the team doesn't have anyone in-house with prior big league managing experience.
- The Mariners expect Cliff Lee back on Friday and Erik Bedard back in four weeks, but the focus will remain on the offense and Ken Griffey Jr.'s .238/.289/.262 performance. Rosenthal says not to expect anything to happen with him anytime soon; Seattle has five Griffey-centric promotions scheduled for the first half.
- The Braves are a logical landing spot for Adrian Gonzalez, but they're also very high on first base prospect Freddie Freeman. The last time they traded for a first baseman with a year-plus left on his contract, they basically rebuilt the Texas Rangers.
- The Nationals made a run at Jermaine Dye and had more than one conversation with Gary Sheffield's agent, but GM Mike Rizzo said those talks were just to gauge interest. For now, they're happy with the a platoon of Willie Harris and Justin Maxwell because of their defensive abilities, and Rizzo says that will remain a point of emphasis as the team moves forward.
- Rosenthal expects the Nats to get better as the season progresses. They'll be adding Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen, Chien-Ming Wang, Ross Detwiler, and Jordan Zimmermann to their pitching staff at various points this year.
Odds & Ends: Washburn, Bell, Padres, Angels
A few notes from around the majors to end the work week….
- Tom Krasovic of the Inside The Padres blog passes along word (via Twitter) from Scott Boras that Jarrod Washburn has "turned down offers from multiple clubs" and the money isn't the top issue for the veteran left-hander. We've heard about the Mariners, Royals, Diamondbacks and Indians all having some degree of interest in Washburn.
- Scott Miller of CBSSports.com reports that the Twins "had what they viewed as a workable deal" for Heath Bell in March, but backed off due to worries about Bell's "character issues."
- In response to a reader's mailbag question about whether Jon Garland or Chris Young is more likely to be dealt this summer, MLB.com's Corey Brock instead said (unsurprisingly) that San Diego will get the most calls about Bell if teams want a Padre pitcher. In regards to the Garland/Young choice, you'd have to think that Garland would be the preferred choice of teams looking for a starter. Garland has been a proven innings-eater for a decade, whereas Young has battled injuries for the last two seasons and is currently on San Diego's DL.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports thinks the Angels might have a tough time sustaining their domination of the AL West. Should the club win the division again, Rosenthal says "it’s difficult to imagine them advancing in the playoffs unless they make a trade or two." He notes the Halos might need a right-handed reliever or a slugging third baseman if Scot Shields and/or Brandon Wood, respectively, continue to struggle.
- R.J. Anderson of Fangraphs can't figure out why the Royals released Juan Cruz.
Could The Braves Join Adrian Gonzalez Sweepstakes?
We've been hearing the Adrian Gonzalez-to-Boston rumors for months now, though there have been whispers that Boston may not have the minor league package necessary to extract Gonzalez from San Diego, the Padres might just keep Gonzalez if they don't find a deal to their liking, and that other teams will be taking just as hard a look at the slugging first baseman.
FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi suggests that Atlanta may be one of those other teams. Morosi spoke to an unnamed scout who said that the Braves "may have the greatest need" for a hitter of Gonzalez's caliber given Atlanta's team-wide struggles at the plate. The Braves entered Friday's action with a .229 team batting average, tied with the Mets for sixth-lowest in baseball.
Going into the offseason, Atlanta's greatest need was to add a big bat to give more support to one of baseball's strongest starting rotations. The Braves instead made several small moves to add the likes of Eric Hinske, Melky Cabrera and Troy Glaus rather than splurging on a high-priced free agent. While it's still too early in the season to fully judge how these moves will pan out, Glaus (as Morosi points out) has particularly struggled at first base, posting a .524 OPS in 58 plate appearances. Given that Glaus is on a one-year, $1.75MM contract, the Braves would have no hesitations about benching, trading or even releasing Glaus if the right opportunity at Gonzalez came along.
In picking up Gonzalez, Morosi notes that the Braves would be blocking the progress of slugging first base prospect Freddie Freeman. However, since this is Bobby Cox's final season, could the team be in an all-out "win now" mode? If the Braves find themselves fighting for a playoff spot in July, Freeman's future promise might be considered a necessary sacrifice for Cox's last postseason push. Also, Freeman would be a logical addition to the hypothetical package to San Diego.
Of course, adding a star first baseman is no golden ticket to the playoffs. The Braves know this all too well — they sent Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Beau Jones to Texas at the 2007 trade deadline for Mark Teixeira. While Teixeira hit well for Atlanta, the Braves only finished third in the NL East in 2007 and wound up trading Teixeira themselves the next July. No doubt this recent deal will make the Braves think twice before offering up another big group of prospects for what might end up being a short-term rental of a player.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Garza, Pierzynski, Padres
Eleven years ago today, Fernando Tatis became the first and only player in baseball history to hit two grand slams in one inning. Amazingly, both came off Chan Ho Park, who allowed 11 runs while recording eight outs. Tatis went on to hit .298/.404/.553 with 34 homeruns for the Cardinals that season, easily the best of the big league career.
Here are a handful of links from around the blogosphere…
- Maddon's Mission wonders if the Rays' handling of Matt Garza tells us about their plans for him in the future.
- The Pale Hose Pariah concludes that A.J. Pierzynski is worth a grade-B position player prospect for a couple of grade-C pitching prospects in a trade.
- Pittsburgh Lumber Co. notes that Lastings Milledge has shown improved on-field maturity since joining the Pirates.
- The Friarhood says the Padres recent winning streak puts any trade talks on hold.
- And Counting makes the case for Carlos Zambrano and Alfonso Soriano being underpaid.
- Capitol Avenue Club visualizes the Braves' proverbial five-year plan.
- Around The Basepath thinks an worldwide draft is a great idea.
- Crashburn Alley takes stock of the Phillies' roster.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Odds & Ends: Zobrist, Pierzynski, Lowe, Padres
Links for Friday…
- Ben Zobrist said signing his extension was a "no-brainer," according to Marc Topkin of The St. Petersburg Times.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com tweets that he doesn't see A.J. Pierzynski as a good fit for the Red Sox because he's not a good thrower. Pierzynski has thrown out just 24% of base stealers in his career. Earlier today we learned that the White Sox were gauging their catcher's value.
- Joel Sherman of The New York Post mentions that while the Oliver Perez signing hasn't worked out for the Mets, their second choice was Derek Lowe, who isn't looking all that hot either.
- The Padres have improved their team by building a speedy club better suited for their ballpark, says Scott Miller of CBSSports.com.
- Mike Rutsey of The Toronto Sun says the Blue Jays should replace the struggling Lyle Overbay with Brett Wallace.
- SI.com's Tom Verducci notes the increased diversity that has developed within the game in recent years. In the same piece, he notes that several clubs have increased their scouting of Yu Darvish in case his team decides to post him after the season.
Stark On Padres, Jose Guillen, Derrek Lee
ESPN's Jayson Stark kicks off today's column with a look at which teams' starts he considers reality and illusion. Beyond that, a look at his hot stove rumblings…
- One club official who "felt out" the Padres over the winter believes they'll hold on to their top players if they're in contention in July. As Stark says, the market would look a lot worse without Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell.
- Stark names six sluggers who "might be in play" this summer: Josh Hamilton, Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Rick Ankiel, Paul Konerko, and Manny Ramirez. Hamilton and Manny are longer shots, but they'd certainly get the hot stove burning.
- As for Jose Guillen – executives Stark talked to just aren't interested, despite his .377/.406/.738 start.
- In search of new stadiums, where could the Rays and A's legitimately threaten to move? Stark and his sources run through ideas and can't find a viable city.
- A friend of Cal Ripken's tells Stark "there's a lot of mutual respect" between Ripken and Orioles owner Peter Angelos. Ripken seeks a difference-making job, rather than just a title. It doesn't necessarily have to be with the Orioles.
- The Cubs told Derrek Lee's agent Casey Close they'd prefer to let the season play out before talking extension. Lee discussed the situation during Spring Training.
- Stark's sources consider Brett Anderson's four-year, $12.5MM deal a very team-friendly contract. To the A's credit, most young pitchers are not willing to give two club options. Playing devil's advocate – did the potential cost savings justify committing four years to Anderson after just one year of service? You can find multiple clubs that do not share Oakland's enthusiasm for locking up good young pitchers.