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D-backs, Giants Join Cubs With Interest In Nicholas Castellanos

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12:30pm: The Diamondbacks are also showing some interest, Morosi tweets. It’s good news for Castellanos to have National League teams involved, though it’s still not clear which if any would be interested in a lengthy commitment.

10:42am: The Giants have joined the Cubs in showing interest in free agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, according to a report from Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Other pursuers remain unknown.

Castellanos is one of the many Scott Boras-repped players populating the upper reaches of the open market. He joins Marcell Ozuna among the top-available outfield options.

While it’s a bit worrisome to imagine Castellanos patrolling the spacious Oracle Park outfield, the club is pulling in the fences this winter. And as Morosi notes, it’s also possible that the youthful slugger could at some point step back into the infield. (He never managed to stick at third base previously but could presumably be expected to play a palatable first base.)

Castellanos is an exceptionally difficult free agent to prognosticate. We ultimately settled on a prediction of four years and $58MM, but batted around quite a few alternative concepts. Castellanos is an accomplished but hardly all-world hitter who has shown some improvements in the field but remains a bat-first player. Involvement of the Giants in his market would assuredly help, as the level of demand has constituted a major element of uncertainty in the earning outlook.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/3/19

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In the course of yesterday’s arbitration whirlwind, we covered quite a few players who reached agreements in advance of the non-tender deadline. But several others also struck deals last night (all projected salaries from MLBTR & contributor Matt Swartz) …

  • Righty Anthony Bass has agreed with the Blue Jays at $1.5MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Recently plucked from the waiver wire, Bass had projected to earn $1.7MM. The 32-year-old is coming off a season in which he threw 48 innings of 3.56 ERA ball with 8.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. It was his most extensive MLB action since 2015.
  • Ben Gamel’s deal with the Brewers includes a $1.4MM salary as well as a $2.55MM club option for the 2021 season, also per Nightengale (Twitter link). The option functions as an earning ceiling for the outfielder. Gamel had projected at $1.6MM, so he’ll come in under that amount while giving up some upside in the event of a breakout. But the priority is surely to gain another opportunity at playing time. Gamel has hovered in range of league-average with the bat over the past several years but slipped to a .248/.337/.373 slash in 356 plate appearances last year in Milwaukee.
  • The Twins have agreed to a deal with righty Matt Wisler, the club announced. The salary isn’t yet known, but it’ll be guaranteed. Given that Wisler is out of options, he’s now rather clearly in line to take a spot in the Minnesota bullpen. The recent waiver claimee projected at $1.0MM. Anything in that range could be a bargain rate for a player that carried a sparkling 63:16 K/BB ratio in 51 1/3 relief innings last year. Of course, Wisler was also tagged for 32 earned runs and ten homers, so he’ll have to figure out how to avoid the long ball.
  • Infielder Donovan Solano has a $1.375MM deal with the Giants, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). That tops his $1.2MM projection, so obviously the club felt there was some risk that he’d be able to command a greater salary in the course of the arb process. Soon to turn 32 years of age, Solano produced one of the game’s least-expected breakouts in 2019. Long a light-hitting utilityman who struggled to establish himself fully in the bigs, Solano turned in 228 plate appearances of .330/.360/.456 hitting last year in San Francisco.

Teams Announce Final Non-Tenders

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We’ve been tracking the day’s arbitration decisions in the run-up to tonight’s deadline, which has produced a bevy of last-minute calls. In addition to those already covered elsewhere (with all projected salary figures from MLBTR/Matt Swartz projections) …

  • The Padres announced they have non-tendered Miguel Diaz and Pedro Avila. Neither hurler had yet been eligible for arbitration, so this amounts to no more than a roster cleanup. Avila had already been designated for assignment. Diaz, meanwhile, saw extensive action as a Rule V pick in 2017 but has only sporadically logged MLB time since.
  • Relievers Javy Guerra and Koda Glover were non-tendered by the Nationals, per a club announcement. Guerra would have cost a projected $1.3MM. Glover announced earlier today that he would retire.
  • The Red Sox non-tendered infielder Marco Hernandez and reliever Josh Osich, per a team announcement. Neither projected at big dollars — $700K and $1.0MM, respectively — but obviously the club felt it could put the roster spots to better use on other players.
  • The Blue Jays have non-tendered relievers Derek Law and Jason Adam, along with backstop Luke Maile. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter) and Scott Mitchell of TSN (on Twitter) were on the news. Law projected at $1.3MM, while Maile was in line for a $800K payday. Adam is still pre-arb eligible.
  • The Giants announced today that they have non-tendered outfielder Joey Rickard ($1.1MM projection), southpaw Tyler Anderson ($2.625MM), and righty Rico Garcia (pre-arb). Both Anderson and Garcia were claimed from the division-rival Rockies after the end of the 2019 season.
  • In addition to other moves earlier today, the Braves have non-tendered catcher John Ryan Murphy and outfielder Rafael Ortega. Each provided depth down the stretch in 2019 for the Atlanta organization. Murphy would’ve been owed a projected $1.2MM, while Ortega remains shy of arbitration eligibility.
  • A host of players were non-tendered by the Royals, per a club announcement. Righty Jesse Hahn was cut loose along with infielders Humberto Arteaga, Cheslor Cuthbert and Erick Mejia. Among these players, Hahn (projected $900K) and Cuthbert ($1.8MM) have the most MLB experience. With these 40-man trimmings, the K.C. org should be able to place some claims and/or make Rule 5 selections in the coming weeks.
  • Righties Ian Gibaut and Wei-Chieh Huang are each heading to free agency after being non-tendered by the Rangers. Neither is anywhere near the service time needed for arbitration eligibility, so this was just an opportune time for the Texas org to drop them from the MLB roster.

Giants Non-Tender Kevin Pillar

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The Giants have non-tendered center fielder Kevin Pillar, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He’ll head onto the open market.

Set to reach his 31st birthday in January, Pillar was slated to earn a projected $9.7MM in his final trip through the arbitration process. That proved too rich for the San Francisco organization, which played Pillar regularly after picking him up early in the 2019 season from the Blue Jays.

Frankly, it’s not surprising to see the Giants pass at that price. Pillar is a gritty performer who still makes his share of highlight-reel plays and has good pop for an up-the-middle player. But advanced analysis suggests he has lost a step in the field and he continues to turn in cringeworthy on-base numbers.

Last season, Pillar slashed just .259/.287/.432 (85 wRC+). That marked his fourth consecutive season of offensive performance more than ten percent below league average. When Pillar was an elite defender in center, that perhaps would have sufficed, even at a relatively lofty price point. However, he’s rated as a mere average center fielder the past two season, combining for -7 defensive runs saved and +2 runs per Ultimate Zone Rating. Statcast, meanwhile, pegged him as a 51st percentile outfielder in 2019. Combined with his lackluster bat, that defensive downturn proved too much for the Giants.

Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To 2019 Non-Tender Deadline

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With tonight’s 8pm ET deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming, there’ll be several players who agree to one-year contracts for the 2020 season today. It’s common for the day of the non-tender deadline to be a big one for arbitration agreements, though it’s also worth noting that many of the players who agree to terms today will do so at a rate that’s lower than the salary figures projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Broadly speaking, players who agree to terms on a salary this far in advance tend to be those who were at risk of being non-tendered, and their teams are able to use tonight’s deadline as leverage in bringing about a deal that saves them a bit of cash. A look at some of the early instances of players agreeing to terms reveals this to be true already; Mike Zunino ($4.5MM salary vs. $4.9MM projection), Wilmer Difo ($1MM salary vs. $1.2MM projection) and Scott Alexander ($875K salary vs. $1MM projection) have all agreed to lesser terms rather than risk being cast out into the free-agent market.

We’ll keep track of today’s players who avoid arbitration in this post and update throughout the day…

  • The Padres have a deal for $1.5MM with infielder Greg Garcia, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. That’s a shade under his $1.7MM projection for the 30-year-old.
  • Infielder Orlando Arcia has avoided arbitration with the Brewers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Though he’s set to lose some playing time, it seems Arcia will be expected to retain a notable role. He’s considered a talented defender at short and was long expected to come around with the bat, but it hasn’t happened yet.
  • Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes is in agreement on a $1.1MM deal, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s a guaranteed deal, which isn’t standard for arbitration pacts. Barnes had projected at $1.3MM on the heels of a disappointing season. It seems he’ll be asked to function as the club’s second backstop in 2020.

Earlier Moves

  • The Rangers have a deal in place with right-hander Nick Goody, the club announced. He’ll earn $915K, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Goody projected to earn $1.1MM, so he’s taking a discount on that mark with his new club.
  • Just-acquired righty Jharel Cotton has agreed to a $640K deal with the Cubs, Rosenthal tweets. Cotton had projected at $800K but he’s surely focused first and foremost on getting a significant MLB opportunity. He didn’t quite make it back to the majors in 2019 after a long injury layoff but figures to represent a swingman option for the Chicago club in 2020.
  • Outfielder Alex Dickerson and lefty Wandy Peralta are in agreement with the Giants, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Dickerson settled for $925K, which is well under his $1.2MM projected earning power. The 29-year-old has had trouble staying healthy but usually hits when he is on the field. He rewarded the San Francisco organization for taking a shot on him last year by turning in a .290/.351/.529 batting line in 171 plate appearances. As for Peralta, he lands right at his projected value with a $805K salary. The 28-year-old was claimed off waivers late in the 2019 season.
  • The White Sox and James McCann avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5.4MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. McCann’s deal checks in a half million dollars north of his $4.9MM projection. Chicago’s addition of Yasmani Grandal has likely relegated McCann to backup duties, so he’ll be a rather expensive second catcher for the South Siders. A free agent next winter, McCann hit .273/.328/.460 with a career-high 18 home runs, but his bat went dormant in the season’s final few months and his .359 BABIP seems particularly ripe for regression.
  • The Athletics avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever T.J. McFarland by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.8MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. That salary effectively puts McFarland in line for the same salary he’d have received had he had his $1.85MM club option exercised by the Diamondbacks. Arizona, however, bought him out for $50K and then ran him through waivers, at which point the A’s claimed him. The 30-year-old posted a 4.82 ERA with a middling 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings this past season, but he’s a ground-ball behemoth (61.1 percent). He’ll be a free agent next winter and had been projected at $2.1MM.
  • Infielder Ehire Adrianza and the Twins agreed on a $1.6MM salary for the upcoming season, Nightengale tweets. The versatile utilityman hit .272/.349/.416 in 236 plate appearances while appearing at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Adrianza, a free agent next winter, was projected at $1.9MM.
  • Outfielder Travis Jankowski agreed to a rare arbitration pay cut with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. After earning $1.165MM in 2019, he’ll be owed $1.05MM in 2020 if he makes the club. A fractured wrist cost him much of the season in 2019, and he was just 4-for-22 when healthy and in the Majors. Jankowski did have a nice season in Triple-A, though (.393 OBP in 39 games), and the Reds gave up some international funds to acquire him, which seemingly indicated that they planned to tender him a contract. He was projected to earn $1.2MM.

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Quick Hits: Rangers, Andujar, Nishikawa, Giants, Bleier

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We’ll check out a few notes as we wrap up a quiet weekend around baseball.

  • The Rangers are “definitely intrigued” by the idea of acquiring Miguel Andújar from the Yankees to fill their third base vacancy, hears T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. The Yankees have gotten numerous hits on Andújar this offseason, with interested teams perhaps looking to buy low after a labrum tear ended the 24-year-old’s season in April. With Gio Urshela having supplanted Andújar at the hot corner in the Bronx, the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up now looks like an interesting trade candidate. Free agency remains an option for Texas, too; Sullivan hears the Rangers are still interested in Josh Donaldson, whom the MLBTR staff guessed would end up in Arlington on a three year, $75MM deal.
  • Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters outfielder Haruki Nishikawa hopes the team will make him available to MLB clubs via the posting system next offseason, reports Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times. Nishikawa, whom Coskrey describes as a “speedy, left-handed hitter,” has a cumulative .284/.376/.393 line in parts of eight NPB seasons. 2019 marked a bit of a step back from the past few years for the 27-year-old, as he slashed .288/.393/.385 with 19 stolen bases. Every year between 2016-18, though, Nishikawa stole at least 39 bags with an OPS north of .790. Nishikawa’s entering his final year under contract with the Fighters, but he won’t qualify for international free agency. Thus, he will need the Fighters, whom Coskrey notes has historically been the most amenable NPB team to posting its top players, including Shohei Ohtani, to agree to post him if he’s to gauge MLB interest in 2020.
  • The Giants are negotiating a deal with Indians’ infield coach/defensive coordinator Kai Correa, reports Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic (via Twitter). San Francisco manager Gabe Kapler is a “huge fan” of Correa’s, Baggarly adds. Correa has spent the past two years working with infielders in the Cleveland organization. He’d previously spent seven seasons coaching at the college level, including four at the University of Northern Colorado.
  • The Orioles are nearing a deal with reliever Richard Bleier to avoid arbitration, reports Roch Kubatko of MASN (via Twitter). Bleier is projected for a modest $1.1MM award in his first foray through the process. The left-handed sinkerballer has consistently posted an elite ground ball rate and been particularly stingy with walks, helping to overcome one of the game’s worst strikeout rates. Unfortunately, Bleier’s 5.37 ERA last season was over three runs per nine higher than the 1.97 career mark he carried entering the year.

NL Notes: Dubon, Giants, Smith, 40-Man Additions

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In trying to predict Mauricio Dubon’s upcoming role with the 2020 Giants, MLB.com’s Maria Guardado draws a comparison between the 25-year-old Dubon and utilityman Chris Taylor of the Dodgers (link). Dubon, as Guaradado points out, already showed himself capable at second and short last year after being acquired from the Brewers in exchange for Drew Pomeranz, and the 25-year-old also has a few games of center field experience dating back to his time in the 2016 Arizona Fall League. While it may be a stretch to conclude that Dubon will be able to handle the outfield’s most challenging position based on a handful of years-old appearances, it isn’t completely outlandish to think that teams may consider some unconventional routes toward manning center in 2020. After all, the free agency class at that position is rather weak, with only Brett Gardner and Shogo Akiyama projecting as possible starting options. Meanwhile, several teams seeking contention, including the Phillies, Padres, and Cubs, have obvious openings in center; the Giants, for their part, are facing some uncertainty as to their approach to Kevin Pillar this offseason. In his first 30 games of MLB action, Dubon hit .274/.306/.434 with four homers and three steals in 2019.

More notes from around the NL on a calm Saturday night…

  • Wednesday’s deadline to add players to 40-man roster’s in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft brought a flurry of activity, and we’ve already covered some of the more interesting veterans that were DFA’d to accommodate various roster moves. But what of the 112 players who found themselves on MLB organizational rosters for the first time? Many of them, as noted in a piece from MLB.com’s Jim Callis, are a good reminder of the labyrinthian routes s0me players have to take in order to achieve their dreams of donning big league uniforms. Callis’ list features a former prep standout who overcame addiction issues to achieve success in the minors (Phil Pfeifer of the Braves), a former Mexican League pitcher who, despite never pitching above High-A, intrigued this season with a 94-98 mph heater (Manuel Rodriguez of the Cubs), and a 2013 DR signing who may reach the bigs with a new org after previously spending a half-decade in Rookie ball (Christopher Sanchez, who arrived to the Phillies via trade from the Rays on Wednesday). They may not represent household names, but they may represent a few new names to root for.
  • Kudos to Joel Sherman of The New York Post for authoring a thoroughly interesting piece that attempts to explain why Yasmani Grandal and Will Smith, in particular, represented the first major signings of the 2019-2020 offseason (link). It was Grandal and Smith’s relatively “distinct” profiles, in Sherman’s view, that prompted the White Sox and Braves, respectively, to lunge toward early signings; while teams may be able to convince themselves, for example, that Zack Wheeler makes for a decent alternative to Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole, there were no such viable alternatives to Smith, a left-handed reliever capable of pitching to both sides of the plate, or Grandal, a switch-hitting catcher who excels at both sides of the game. While the next-best lefty reliever may be Drew Pomeranz, it’s not as if teams would feel entirely comfortable with that pitcher’s comparative lack of a relief track record; same goes for Travis d’Arnaud, a player who, despite his arguable position as the market’s second-best backstop, simply doesn’t offer Grandal’s history of sustained success (or health). As Sherman touches on, Smith’s well-rounded ability, in particular, could prove to be a boon for the Braves. With next year’s introduction of a three-batter minimum rule, it’s generally impossible, at this juncture, to predict how teams might be compromised in late-inning situations. While recent years have seen a LOOGY or two stashed on every staff, pitchers like Smith figure to become increasingly valuable under the new rules, where relievers will likely have to face at least one opposite-handed batter. In 65.1 innings in 2019, the Braves’ newest addition was death on same-handed batters (.166 wOBA) but more-than-useful against righties as well (.298 wOBA).

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/23/19

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We’ll use this post to keep track of today’s minor moves…

  • The Brewers signed right-hander Jesus Castillo to a minor-league deal that includes and invite to Major League camp, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. The 24-year-old Venezuelan signed with the Diamondbacks as an international amateur in 2012 and has since spent time in the minors with the Cubs and Angels organizations. Last year, Castillo reached the Double-A level and enjoyed arguably his best season as a professional, splitting time between the bullpen and the starting rotation. in 99 2/3 innings of work with the Angels’ Double-A affiliate in Mobile, Castillo posted a 2.71 ERA while striking out 80 batters. While his strikeout and walk numbers are nothing special, Castillo has done well throughout his minor league career to suppress the long ball: in eight seasons across several levels of the minors, he’s conceded just 0.6 homers per nine innings pitched.
  • The Giants signed former Cubs farmhand Trey McNutt, tweets Matt Daniels, the Giants’ Coordinator of Pitching Sciences. McNutt, 30, signed with the Cubs in 2009 after being drafted in the 32nd round out of Shelton State Community College. He spent some time in the Padres system before two years in the Independent League (2017, 2018). He posted good strikeout rates while throwing 65 innings of 5.12 ERA baseball for the A’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates in 2019. Daniels tracked McNutt at least through his independent league days, and the Giants’ pitching coordinator seems to believe in the righty’s ability to continue to improve, despite being quite a few years older than most farmhands. Still, after the success of Nick Anderson in Miami and Tampa Bay (whose career tracked a similar path), McNutt’s chances of making his major league debut are far from dead, and a year from now, he could very well be the Merrill Kelly to Anderson’s Miles Mikolas.

Coaching/Front Office Notes: Bucs, D-backs, Giants, O’s

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Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro remains in the running to become the Pirates’ next manager, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The race is seemingly down to Quatraro, Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay and Twins bench coach Derek Shelton, though Heyman notes there may be other unreported names in the mix. Hiring a manager could end up as the first important order of business for new GM Ben Cherington, whom the Pirates brought aboard earlier this week.

  • Diamondbacks executives Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter have been mentioned as future general managers, though the two told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) they’re content to stay in Arizona working under GM Mike Hazen. “It would be really hard to leave Arizona not just because of the culture Mike has created, the ease of living, the obvious excitement over the organization. But coming in and building something and wanting to see it through is so important,” said Sawdaye, who added, “If I never become a GM and this is my ultimate job and I’m here for the next 25 years, I can tell you I’ll be darned happy.” Porter echoed Sawdaye, saying: “I’ve never been more excited about working somewhere. I’ve never been more determined and focused to make a team and an organization better.” The feeling’s mutual on the D-backs’ end, as the franchise recently signed the two assistant GMs to extensions.
  • Greg E. Johnson has grabbed the reins as the Giants’ control person, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. He’ll take over for Rob Dean, who held the position on an interim basis after MLB suspended now-reinstated president/CEO Larry Baer in March, though Dean is still with the organization. Baer and president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi are now expected to report to Johnson and Dean, but “day-to-day operations should not be affected by Thursday’s moves,” Schulman writes. Johnson’s the son of Charles B. Johnson, who was part of the investment group that bought the Giants in 1993.
  • The Orioles are close to hiring Rockies assistant Anthony Sanders as their first base coach, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Sanders is a former major league outfielder who managed at the rookie level with the Rockies, though he was most recently their outfield and base-running coordinator. Assuming Sanders takes over as the O’s first base coach, he’ll succeed Arnie Beyeler.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

With a new manager and general manager in the fold, the Giants head into the post-Bruce Bochy era as perhaps a dark horse for some significant offseason business.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Reports surrounding Will Smith’s three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves contained the detail that Smith’s representatives used the Giants’ $17.8MM qualifying offer as a bargaining chip with other teams.  If no rival club was willing to step up and offer Smith the type of multi-year contract he was seeking, Smith would just have accepted the Giants’ one-year offer and returned to San Francisco for the 2020 season.

As it happened, Atlanta came up with a suitable offer and Smith will now be working out of the SunTrust Park bullpen.  It’s possible the threat of an accepted qualifying offer was just a negotiating tactic on Smith’s part, but taken at face value, the closer was seemingly willing to be a Giant next year.

It creates an interesting sliding-doors scenario for the Giants as they head into what could be an intriguing offseason.  If Smith had remained in the fold, would president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi have been more inclined to go for it in 2020, showing the same competitive zeal that led him to keep Smith, Madison Bumgarner, Tony Watson and other seemingly surefire trade chips at the deadline?  Or, with Smith gone and the Giants now in possession of an extra compensatory draft pick, will Zaidi further focus on rebuilding what is still one of the older teams in baseball, and one that suffered its third straight losing season?

It could be that both avenues will be explored, as Zaidi has indicated he will continue the rebuilding-while-reloading strategy that he has deployed throughout his first year running the Giants’ front office.  Zaidi recently said his club is “open to anything” this winter. “We’re still in a mode where we want to compete next year,” he explained. “… But we want to do it in a way that creates flexibility for us and keeps us an organization moving in a positive, healthy direction.”

Zaidi will have a new voice alongside him in the decision-making process, as Scott Harris was hired as the Giants’ new general manager and Zaidi’s top lieutenant.  Though Harris has seven years’ experience as the Cubs’ assistant GM and director of baseball operations, he is also only 32 years old, continuing the recent trend of younger executive hirings (Zaidi himself recently turned 43) and more modern approaches to roster-building around the game.

That same direction extended into the team’s search to replace Bochy as manager, as almost all of the names linked to the Giants job were younger coaches who would have been first-time managers.  As it happened, the club went with a younger name who did boast some dugout-leading experience, as the 44-year-old Gabe Kapler was hired just over a month after being fired from a two-year stint managing the Phillies.

Kapler’s appointment came with no shortage of controversy and even some dismay from some Giants fans.  While in Philadelphia, Kapler amassed only a 161-163 record over two seasons, earning criticism for everything from player discipline issues to questionable in-game tactics and bullpen management.  Nonetheless, there’s a long list of managers who improved after struggling in his first job, and Kapler and Zaidi have a long relationship dating back to their days in the Dodgers’ front office.

Zaidi, Harris, and Kapler will go into their first offseason together looking at an everyday lineup that is technically filled at every position.  Longtime catcher Buster Posey will look to get back on track now that he’s over a year removed from hip surgery, though the Giants will look to spell him with a backup who could play more often than your average second-stringer.  A reunion with Stephen Vogt is already being explored, though the Athletics have also shown interest in bringing Vogt over to the other side of the bay and other organizations are sure to be involved.

The quartet of Brandon Belt, Mauricio Dubon, Brandon Crawford, and Evan Longoria are penciled in around the infield.  The Giants’ outfield was a revolving door in 2019 but the team finally unearthed a couple of hidden gems in Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson, while Kevin Pillar hit 21 homers and provided at least some stability in center field, even if Pillar’s glovework (-1.6 UZR/150, -5 Defensive Runs Saved) has taken a big step back from his defensive heyday in Toronto.

With a $9.7MM projected arbitration salary, Pillar has a big price tag for a player who is seemingly declining on defense and has never been an above-average bat.  There are arguments on both sides as to whether San Francisco should retain or non-tender Pillar, and this is one of several positions that the Giants could address in a bold fashion.  A trade for the Pirates’ Starling Marte, perhaps, since the Bucs could decide to rebuild under new GM Ben Cherington, though he’s sure to be targeted by multiple contenders and may come at too steep a price. If the Giants prefer a younger player at a lower acquisition cost and salary, they could consider names like Manuel Margot and Michael A. Taylor or look into much less experienced performers.  The free agent center field market isn’t teeming with great options, though Japanese star Shogo Akiyama has some intrigue, and his on-base skills would be a big help to a Giants lineup that struggled to get runners aboard.

In fact, the Giants struggled at basically everything on offense last season, so there’s certainly room for upgrades within their everyday lineup.  Contractual obligations, however, are a big obstacle to creating space — with Crawford, Belt and Posey all coming off subpar years and Longoria owed $58MM for his age 34-36 seasons, rival teams won’t exactly be lining up to make trade offers.  Of that group, Belt probably has the widest trade value since he could be helped the most by a move to a more hitter-friendly ballpark, but he’s also in an era where teams aren’t willing to pay top dollar at first base for anything less than top-flight production.  (Belt’s ten-team no-trade clause further complicates matters.)

This isn’t to say that a creative trade couldn’t be found, if the Giants were to eat money to accommodate a deal or perhaps arrange a multi-team swap.  Perhaps lightning could even strike twice for Zaidi and he’d find another team willing to entirely absorb one of the Giants’ big salaries, such as how the Braves surprisingly paid full freight on Mark Melancon at last year’s trade deadline.

If the veterans could largely be seen as placeholders, San Francisco will look for some offensive improvement from within, if Dubon hits well in his first full MLB season, or if Yastrzemski and Dickerson continue their hot hitting into 2020.  Zaidi has said that the Giants will look to acquire a left-handed hitting infielder who could spell Dubon or Longoria. While rookie Kean Wong has already been claimed off waivers from the Angels, a more proven veteran option would likely be preferred.  Options abound in free agency. Donovan Solano (a right-handed hitter) is also on hand for infield depth, looking to build off a very strong performance in part-time duty in 2019.

Neither Yastrzemski or Dickerson have long track records of success, so the outfield depth will again be an area of concern.  Dickerson’s injury history makes him more of a question mark, so the Giants could consider him as a fourth outfielder type while looking for a more reliable everyday option (probably a right-handed outfielder, as both Yastrzemski and Dickerson hit from the left side).  Cameron Maybin could be brought back for a second consecutive winter, though his pre-season 2019 stint didn’t end in the best of circumstances. Avisail Garcia could be a youthful upside play … or the club could even bring in Yasiel Puig. Odd as it would be to see Puig in a Giants uniform, he does have ties to Zaidi and Kapler.

The Giants could also see this as an opportunity to land a bigger-ticket outfielder.  Nicholas Castellanos’ defensive limitations make him an imperfect fit for Oracle Park’s spacious outfield, though he’d certainly add plenty of pop.  Castellanos could be signed without draft pick compensation, while Marcell Ozuna would cost the Giants a pick since he rejected the Cardinals’ qualifying offer.

Spending on an Ozuna, Castellanos, or even a more expensive free agent can’t be ruled out since the Giants are starting to see daylight after being buried under a pile of pricey veteran contracts for the last few years.  Longoria is the only player under contract past the 2021 season, and the Giants are in no danger of surpassing the $208MM luxury tax threshold, with an estimated current tax number of slightly under $144.6MM. Then again, Zaidi may not be anxious to slot in future obligations unless he sees a real opportunity for value.

Since San Francisco has the extra Smith pick and potentially another choice coming if Bumgarner signs elsewhere, could they make a splash by signing a QO-rejecting free agent of their own?  Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson aren’t really options unless third base is opened up by a Longoria trade, though any of the other players who declined the qualifying offer could all fit.  Beyond Ozuna in the outfield, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, or Zack Wheeler would immediately bolster a shaky Giants rotation.

Such a signing (of the pitchers in particular) would also announce that San Francisco is fully intent on contending for a playoff berth in 2020, and it remains to be seen if Zaidi is willing to make such a big strike this early in his tenure, especially since the Giants are far from being one player away.  One major signing that can’t be ruled out is Bumgarner, yet the Giants might balk at a bidding war that could develop, considering how much interest Bumgarner is already generating.

Even if the Giants avoid the top of the pitching market, some rotation help is certainly required.  Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija are the only hurlers who seem certain for the Opening Day starting five, and even that might not be set in stone if Samardzija is dealt before the final year of his contract.  Tyler Anderson was added on a waiver claim from the Rockies, a move that has some upside potential but is something of a lottery ticket addition for now given Anderson’s lack of big league success.  Tyler Beede, Dereck Rodriguez, Shaun Anderson, and Logan Webb are the other contenders for the three open rotation spots, leaving the Giants in need of experienced arms.  Names from the second or third tier of the free agent market (i.e. Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Tanner Roark, Jordan Lyles, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley) all make some sense.

After losing Smith to the Braves and Reyes Moronta for much of 2020 due to shoulder surgery, the relief corps got some good news when Watson remained with the Giants by exercising his player option.  Watson is by far the senior member of a young bullpen, so some experienced help is a must, and the closer role stands out as the biggest question mark.  It stands to reason that trade candidates like the Blue Jays’ Ken Giles could be on the Giants’ radar. Free agents with late-inning experience, such as Steve Cishek or Pedro Strop, could be considered. Former Giant Sergio Romo can’t be ruled out, or the club might take a chance on Brandon Morrow, who was in L.A. with Zaidi and Kapler.

While the Giants’ 77-85 record actually exceeded some expectations in 2019, it’s worth noting that the club only had a winning record in two months (a 14-13 mark in June, and then a scorching 19-6 run in July).  Much work needs to be done in order to turn San Francisco into a true wild card contender, and this offseason could potentially look a lot like the last — Zaidi swung multiple low-level signings, waiver claims, and trades to shuffle around the fringes of his roster last winter.  This time around, however, Zaidi has a bit more room to maneuver in exploring a higher-priced version of those same transactions.

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