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Arbitration Eligibles: San Francisco Giants

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Giants are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Belt, 26 in April, established career bests in most categories and finished strong.  He'll go to arbitration four times as a Super Two player, but his first-time salary is held down by modest power numbers.  It's possible the Giants could consider an Allen Craig type of contract, perhaps with an adjustment to reflect Belt's Super Two status.  Blanco had another useful season, contributing mainly with his glove.  It's possible he'll be pushed to a fourth outfielder role next year, but he still provides good value.  Arias seems safe as the primary backup infielder.

As a journeyman who cleared waivers as recently as August, I'd normally peg Petit as a non-tender candidate.  However, he did a nice job for the Giants in 48 innings, narrowly missing a perfect game in September.  He's probably earned himself a roster spot for next year, especially with the Giants facing question marks in the rotation after Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner.

The Giants may lose lefty Javier Lopez to free agency, but still may see fit to non-tender Mijares.  The 28-year-old southpaw posted a strong 9.9 K/9, but was beat up by allowing 67 hits in 49 innings.  He might rebound next year if he's used more strictly, as he was particularly bad against right-handed hitters.  Abreu showed good pop in 147 plate appearances, enduring a couple of stints on the DL.  Since his projected salary is barely above the league minimum, he has a chance to stick around.

If Belt, Blanco, Petit, Arias, and Abreu are tendered contracts, the Giants are looking at an estimated $7.8MM for five arbitration eligible players.

Sherman’s Latest: Tanaka, Kuroda, Red Sox

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On Friday it was reported that the Yankees are expected to be serious players for Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka. While many teams figure to be in the mix, the New York Post's Joel Sherman offered up a look at why the Yankees, specifically, will be motivated to sign Tanaka. Here are some of the highlights from Sherman's latest work…

  • The Yankees want to re-energize their fanbase and generate interest in buying tickets again, and adding Tanaka would allow them to do so without shattering the luxury tax threshold, as the posting fee wouldn't go against that figure. Sherman spoke with multiple executives who told him that each team is set to receive about $25MM from national TV revenue, and the Yankees also received a good chunk of money when News Corp. bought 49 percent of the YES Network. As Sherman puts it: "The Yanks have a big pile of newfound money to use lavishly for a posting bid."
  • Sherman also lists the Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Diamondbacks and Blue Jays as suitors for Tanaka.
  • The Yankees may be extra-motivated to sign Tanaka due to the fact that many within the organization believe Hiroki Kuroda is leaning toward returning to Japan to finish his career.
  • In a separate piece, Sherman writes that Boston's decision on whether or not to tender qualifying offers to Jacoby Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli and Jarrod Saltalamacchia will shape the market. Sherman spoke with four Major League executives — two from the AL and two from the NL — and asked about the Red Sox quartet's chances at receiving a qualifying offer. All four agreed that Ellsbury will receive one. Both AL execs and one of the NL expected Napoli to receive an offer, while just one of the NL execs thought that Drew and Saltalamacchia would get offers. Sherman offers his own expectation as well, predicting that all four will receive qualifying offers.

NL West Notes: Giants, Towers, Rockies, Padres

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Let's start the weekend off with a few notes out of the National League's West division:

  • Don't expect any big news on the Giants' major off-season decisions until after the World Series, says Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Sulia). The team has five days after the end of the post-season to decide whether to pick up Ryan Vogelsong's option and to decide whether to issue Tim Lincecum a qualifying offer. Otherwise, Schulman says, the club is not likely to make reliever Javier Lopez a "pre-emptive offer" and has only engaged in "preliminary" talks with Lincecum to date.
  • Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers is simply wrong when he says that the team's issues stem from a lack of toughness, writes Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic, who says that the club's mediocrity stems from a lack of talent for which Towers himself is responsible. In support of the latter half of that thesis, Bickley says Towers overvalued reliever Heath Bell, dealt Justin Upton only to say he'll be shopping for power in the corners, and sold low on starter Ian Kennedy.
  • Another front office tandem — Dan O'Dowd and Bill Geivett of the Rockies – have gotten by on mediocrity for too long, says Benjamin Hochman of the Denver Post. Nevertheless, he reports, owner Dick Monfort seems to have no intention of making a change. "Continuity here is very important," said Monfort. "I really don't believe that either one of them has done a poor job."
  • Addressing a variety of Padres topics in a fan chat, Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune said that he believes the Friars could be active on the trade market and may look to deal arms like Robbie Erlin, Burch Smith, or possibly Eric Stults given the depth at the back of the team's rotation. He says the club is more interested in adding a big bat in a deal, though it could still tack on some arms via free agency.

Latest On Alexander Guerrero

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Cuban second baseman Alexander Guerrero is back on the free agent market after his engagement with the Dodgers was called off in September.  Now, the Scott Boras client is seeking a four-year deal from interested MLB teams.  However, some of the clubs that are in on Guerrero are pushing for a longer pact.

Heyman cites the Dodgers, Giants, Rangers, Red Sox, and Reds as clubs with interest in the 26-year-old.  Guerrero and Los Angeles were closing in on a five-year, $32MM deal last month but the deal fell apart for reasons that are still unknown.  The 86ing of the near-agreement also coincided with a change in representation as Guerrero left his former agent for Boras.

Guerrero played mostly shortstop in Cuba's Serie Nacional, but most scouts expect him to move to the other side of the bag for defensive purposes.  He slashed .290/.402/.576 with 21 home runs in 328 plate appearances in his final season in Cuba.  According to Ben Badler of Baseball America, Guerrero doesn't figure to be a premium talent, but he does offer impressive raw right-handed power.

Quick Hits: A’s, Morse, Mariners, Abreu, Braves

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As the Athletics get ready for Game 5 against the Tigers, owner Lew Wolff is embroiled in a different battle with the Giants for the right to move his team to San Jose.  Wolff goes way back with commissioner Bud Selig, but that won’t play a major role in the proceedings.  “Well, we were in the same fraternity,” Wolff told Bob Nightengale of USA Today, “but Bud was there to get an education. I was there to have a good time. Bud was involved in so many intramural events, there wasn’t a game or sport he missed. Of course, he was a spectator. I don’t remember him playing any of it.”  More from around baseball..

  • The Orioles believe that Mike Morse’s injury “pre-dated” their summer trade with the Mariners, but it’s not an issue they’re pursuing, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter link). Morse is a pending free agent this winter after posting a combined slash line of .215/.270/.381 with 13 homers this past season.
  • The Mariners’ have a long list of managers that they might pursue this winter, but Joe Girardi is not among them, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  While they surely believe that Girardi is a strong skipper, they know that they won’t be able to compete with the allure of the Yankees or Cubs openings.  Three names believed to be on the list are A’s coach Chip Hale, Giants coach Ron Wotus, and newly-minted Phillies third base coach Pete Mackanin.
  • A high-ranking Mets official told the Star-Ledger’s Jorge Castillo that scouts came away “impressed” with Jose Dariel Abreu’s power after watching him in Santo Domingo last week.
  • There is no telling how the NL East will shake out, but the Braves could be contenders without making a single offseason move, opines Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.
  • The Rockies announced today that Jorge de la Rosa had his option picked up for 2014, but the pitcher says that he was already assured that it would be exercised last week, writes Rafael Rojas Cremonesi for MLB.com.

AL East Notes: Orioles, Rays, Price, Cano

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Brian Matusz and Tommy Hunter want to be starters again, but they've already proven themselves to be successful in the bullpen, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.  While manager Buck Showalter will work to stretch them out in spring training, its possible that the O's would have sent Matusz to Triple-A Norfolk to work as a starter if that were an option.  Here's more out of the AL East..

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post reached out to nine baseball executives yesterday to ask if they felt David Price would get moved this winter and they all said yes.  Price, like Matt Garza and James Shields when they were dealt from Tampa Bay, is two years away from free agency, meaning that this is the time to move him.  The Rangers came up most often as the most likely destination followed by the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Padres, Red Sox, Giants, and Reds.
  • The perception around baseball that free agent Robinson Cano doesn't work hard could hurt his value, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post says that's its an unfair label.  The second baseman has a tendency to not run out grounders, but generally speaking, he has impeccable work habits.  “When he hits a groundball to the second baseman or shortstop, I know what it looks like,” hitting coach Kevin Long said. “I get it. I know it is part of the perception. He’s been talked to a million times about it. But I am telling you that is not a true picture of how hard he works or cares, and so if that is his only downfall, it is not the worst thing in the world.”
  • Kubatko revisited the Orioles' trade for Bud Norris and wonders if it will be worthwhile when all is said and done.

Cafardo On Arroyo, Kendrick, Braun, Cano

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Timing is everything in baseball and Joe Girardi is hitting the open market at the perfect time, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes.  The Cubs always saw landing Girardi as a longshot, but they'll give it another go this winter.  From the Yankees perspective, they'd be foolish not to lock Girardi up with a lucrative new deal, in Cafardo's opinion.  Few managers, he argues, could have survived the injuries that the Yankees were dealing with and kept them in the playoff chase in September.  If Girardi bails for Chicago or elsewhere, Cafardo suggests Don Mattingly as a candidate.  Of course, the Dodgers would have to fire him or work out a trade for that to happen.  Here's more from today's column..

  • Bronson Arroyo says he wants a three-year deal and he feels his time in Cincinnati is likely over. “I have no preference on where I want to pitch but I’ll certainly consider the team, their chances of winning, and all of that,” he said. “I feel I can pitch effectively at 37, 38, and 39 years old. I’ve never missed a start. Never been injured. I’m not a max-effort guy out there, so there’s no big-time wear and tear on me. I loved Cincinnati but I don’t think they’re in position to give me what I want.” Cafardo suggests the Blue Jays, Orioles, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, Pirates, Cardinals, and Dodgers as possibilities.
  • It's looking increasingly likely that Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick will be traded for pitching or prospects. The Royals need second base help and would have interest.  The Orioles may also be interested if they cut ties with Brian Roberts this winter.  The O's haven't decided what to do with Roberts just yet but they wouldn't go beyond a one-year deal to keep him. 
  • It has been suggested that the Brewers could trade Ryan Braun, but finding someone willing to take on his baggage and lucrative deal could be tricky.  “I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Someone would have to take a big chance and nobody’s doing that on PED guys, especially for that length of contract,” said one exec.
  • Bench coach Tony Pena is not likely to replace Girardi as manager if he goes elsewhere. “I don’t think anyone in our front office is even thinking about that,” said one Yankees official.
  • Many believe that the Dodgers won't be serious players for Robinson Cano, but things can change with an early exit from the playoffs.

International Notes: Jose Abreu, Bryan De La Cruz

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Here's the latest from the international prospect market…

  • "Every team had someone" present at Jose Abreu's showcases on Monday and Tuesday, Baseball America's Ben Badler reports, but the Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Marlins and Giants had the largest presences.  Badler reported a few days ago that the Rangers could be the favorites to sign Abreu, with the Red Sox, White Sox, Pirates and Nationals also strong contenders.
  • The Giants were known to be interested in Abreu and they sent "an especially large crew" to his showcase that included GM Brian Sabeau, Felipe Alou and Pat Burrell.  Badler finds this curious given that the Giants already have Brandon Belt, but he speculates that San Francisco could sign Abreu and then move Belt to left field to possibly shop him in a trade.
  • As for the showcase itself, Badler said Abreu "didn’t seem to hurt his stock" as a right-handed hitting power bat.  Abreu took a few grounders at third base though that may have just been as a test of arm strength, as Badler writes that Abreu is "almost certain to sign as a first baseman."
  • The Astros have signed 16-year-old Bryan de la Cruz to a contract with a $170K bonus, Ben Badler reports.  A 6'2", 175-pound outfielder from the Dominican Republic, de la Cruz has "good tools" and has shown "power potential" from the right side of the plate.  De la Cruz is the ninth player signed by Houston since the international signing period opened on July 2.

Quick Hits: Pence, Westbrook, Abreu, Astros

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While it’s not a mistake on the level of the Barry Zito contract, the Giants could come to regret the Hunter Pence deal, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs. The $90MM contract won’t stop them from winning if they can surround him with quality players on undervalue contracts, but that’s obviously easier said than done. Here’s more from around baseball..

  • Jake Westbrook can read the writing on the wall and knows that his time with the Cardinals is likely over, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Between his struggles and the Cards’ wealth of young pitching, Westbrook isn’t expected to be placed on the postseason roster. Westbrook isn’t certain if he will pitch in 2014 and plans to discuss with his family in the offseason.
  • Ben Badler of Baseball America spoke with international sources to identify five teams that could sign Jose Dariel Abreu.  The White Sox, Nationals, Pirates, Red Sox, and Rangers look like the frontrunners for the Cuban standout with Texas possibly having the inside track on everyone.
  • Prior to a charity event earlier today, Astros owner Jim Crane said that he plans to spend money in 2014 to help turn the club around, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle. “Now we have a nucleus to draw from. And so we got that established. I think in the off-season you’ll see Jeff [Luhnow], and he’s already said it, we’re going to fill some of those holes. As the kids come up through the system we can get competitive very quick. We lost a lot of one-run games. It’s pretty obvious where our needs are, and we’ll work on those in the offseason and start loosening the purse book,” Crane said.
  • Cubs president Theo Epstein says he will look first and foremost at candidates with managerial experience, tweets Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter) notes that the Dodgers hold an option on manager Don Mattingly for 2014.  The option is worth $1.4MM, sources tell Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi.

Giants Extend Hunter Pence

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SUNDAY: The Giants officially announced the extension, which, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, will pay Pence $16MM in 2014 and $18.5MM in each of the remaining four years with no signing bonus.

SATURDAY: The Giants have signed Hunter Pence to a five-year extension, reports John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter). San Francisco has guaranteed $90MM and granted a no-trade clause to keep its right fielder from reaching free agency, CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman reports, confirming his earlier tweet. Pence is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

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The 30-year-old Pence was set to hit the market as one of the top available free agents, but will instead stay in San Francisco for the foreseeable future. With just two games left to play, Pence sports a .282/.339/.481 line to go with 26 long balls and 22 steals. The durable Pence has yet to miss a contest this year, and has never played less than 154 games in a season since establishing himself as a full-timer. In the aggregate, he was worth a career-best 4.2 bWAR and 5.3 fWAR on the season.

With an $18MM average annual value over five years, Pence slots in between two fellow California right-fielders that recently signed up for half-decade stints. Pence's contract bests the extension signed by the Dodgers' Andre Ethier by a mil a year, but falls $5MM per year short of Josh Hamilton's free agent contract with the Angels. 

Coming just one day before the end of the regular season, the Pence contract should function as an important marker on the upcoming free agent market. In particular, with Pence being taken out of the picture for $90MM, Shin-Soo Choo's case for a $100MM+ deal sounds a lot more plausible.  Some questioned Scott Boras' proclamation that Choo, who has never been an All-Star, would be a nine-figure player, but you won't find many people laughing at that notion today. The deal should also help out Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who is currently ranked No. 2 on Tim Dierkes' power rankings for 2014 free agents.

For his career, Pence owns a .285/.339/.475 slash line over the course of seven seasons with the Astros, Phillies, and Giants.

Zach Links and Edward Creech contributed to this post.  Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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