Giants Sign Scott Proctor
The Giants have signed free agent reliever Scott Proctor, Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea reports (on Twitter). The Treasure Coast Palm first reported that the Giants had a deal with the Jensen Beach resident. Frontline represents Proctor, who pitched in Korea in 2012.
Proctor, who celebrated his 36th birthday today, pitched to a 7.14 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 6.5 BB/9 in 39 games for the Braves and Yankees in 2011. For his career, the right-hander has a 4.78 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in seven big league seasons.
The Giants also signed Ryan Sadowski, according to Baggarly. The 30-year-old right-hander started six games for the 2009 Giants. Like Proctor, he pitched in Korea last year.
Arbitration Breakdown: Buster Posey
Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors (read more about it here), but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Buster Posey is eligible for arbitration for the first time in 2013, conveniently right after a successful MVP campaign. Posey also won the batting title in 2012, along with a Rookie of the Year Award in 2010. Despite the MVP, Posey is not the typical slugger who gets handsomely rewarded compared to other players in arbitration. He "only" had 24 home runs and 103 RBI in 2012, though he did hit .336 in 610 plate appearances. Due to an injury in 2011 and the fact that Posey reaches arbitration as a super two, he only had 645 plate appearances going into his platform season along with a .294 average, 22 home runs, and 88 runs batted in. What makes Posey’s situation unique is that he has a healthier trophy case than anyone else to reach arbitration in recent years, but fewer plate appearances going into his platform year than most others to get larger salaries. Even though the only other player in the last six years to have an MVP and a ROY before his first year of arbitration (Ryan Howard) earned $10MM, there was no player with as few career plate appearances as Posey to ever earn more than $3.75MM. My model has the CAA client well between these two extremes, projected to earn $5.9MM.
Posey figures to earn far less than Ryan Howard’s $10MM for several reasons. Not only did Howard have 1094 previous plate appearances, but he was also a power hitter coming off a 47 home run season. Power numbers matter to panels a lot more than other skills, so Posey will not be able to argue for more than Howard’s $10MM. There are two other players in the last six years to have MVP awards before reaching arbitration, Joey Votto (who got $8MM in 2011) and Justin Morneau ($4.5MM in 2007). Votto was coming off a .324 average, 37 home runs, and 113 runs batted in 648 plate appearances and also had 1222 PA before his platform season, in which he accumulated 53 HR, 185 RBIs, and hit .310. Votto also had 16 stolen bases in his platform year and 12 in previous seasons, while Posey is not a base stealer. This all combines to suggest Posey will fall short of Votto’s $8MM. Morneau’s $4.5MM seems low. Firstly, the fact that it is now a comparable that is over six years old makes it unlikely to be a fair comparison, but Morneau also only had a .248 average going into his platform year, making his .321/34/130 performance that year seem more anomalous. Posey, on the other hand, had won Rookie of the Year during his pre-platform tenure.
In more common cases, Posey would be more likely to be compared to other catchers. However, he has a clearly superior case than any of the catchers with whom he would be compared. The largest first-time arbitration award given to a catcher went to Russell Martin in 2009 at $3.9MM. Martin was only coming off a .280/13/69 platform season (though with 18 SB) in 650 plate appearances , although he did have 1088 PA prior to his platform season. The lack of an MVP award suggests that Martin’s salary is a very obvious floor for Posey. Joe Mauer’s 2007 case might be the most similar to Posey, although he did not have an MVP award. However, Mauer did have a batting title in 2006, hitting .347 in 608 plate appearances , and also has a pre-platform season injury in common with Posey. Mauer had just 676 plate appearances before his platform season, similar to Posey’s 645. Mauer ended up signing a multi-year deal in which he earned $3.75MM in 2007, but before that, Mauer and the Twins had exchanged figures of $3.3 and $4.5MM, so $3.75MM seems like they settled effectively in the middle and then added a few years on. Of course, this case is probably “stale” and isn’t a great comparison for Posey, but it also suggests that Posey should successfully finish with well over $4MM. No catchers other than Martin and Mauer have gotten more than $2.15MM in the last six years, so those two would be the only plausible comparisons.
Expanding beyond catchers and MVPs, I looked through the last six years to find anyone who had 20 HR, 80 RBI, and a .300 average, regardless of whether they had won any awards or what position they played. Only one player had more than $4.84MM: Miguel Cabrera at $7.4MM in 2007. Obviously, that case is now stale but it does provide a useful comparison to Posey. Cabrera had just hit .339/26/114 in 676 plate appearances , while he had a .300 average entering his platform season in 1067 PA, along with 78 HR and 290 RBI. The platform season looks very similar season to Posey’s, while the previous seasons look much better. On top of that, Cabrera already had 3 years and 101 days of service time by his first year of arbitration, compared with Posey’s 2 years and 161 days. Further, even though Cabrera didn’t have an MVP award yet, he did have three all-star appearances already and had back-to-back fifth place finishes in MVP races. Posey will probably earn less than Cabrera’s $7.4MM. The other guys on the list of .300/20/80 first-time eligibles included Chase Utley who got $4.84MM in 2007 as part of a multi-year deal and Garrett Atkins who got $4.46MM in 2008. More recently, Shin-Soo Choo got $3.975MM in 2011. All three players seem to have inferior cases to Posey’s, which provides further reason to expect Posey to obtain at least $5MM.
Other elite players to get large deals in recent years include Prince Fielder’s $7.5MM, Hanley Ramirez’s $5.55MM in 2009 (both as part of multi-year deals), and Dan Uggla’s $5.35MM in 2009. Uggla had 1411 plate appearances prior to his platform season, but his .260/32/92 platform season suggests Posey should be able to top him. Getting even further from plausible comparables, we can at least look at pitchers who got big awards—the only pitchers to get over $5MM were Lincecum and Kershaw ($9 and $7.75MM as part of multi-year deals), and relievers Jonathan Papelbon and Bobby Jenks ($6.25 and $5.6MM as one-year deals in 2009). These pitchers won't come up as comps in Posey's case.
Posey’s case is clearly unique. It seems like anything between $4.5 and $7.4MM is possible, and my model coincidentally ends up splitting the difference almost exactly at $5.9MM. I think Uggla’s $5.35MM is too low, but not by much, so something in the $6MM range makes sense for Posey.
Royals Sign Endy Chavez
The Royals have announced the signing of outfielder Endy Chavez to a minor league contract. Chavez is represented by Peter E. Greenberg & Associates and is the third veteran outfielder the Royals have signed this month, following their minor league contracts with Xavier Nady and Willy Taveras.
Chavez (who turns 35 in February) signed a one-year, $1.5MM deal with the Orioles last offseason and hit .203/.236/.278 in 169 plate appearances for Baltimore in 2012. Chavez spent most his 64 games as a defensive replacement in left and right field and it's likely he'll fill a similar backup role in Kansas City. On paper he fits as a left-handed hitting complement to Jeff Francoeur in right field, but Chavez's career .676 OPS against right-handed pitching is even less than Francoeur's much-maligned career numbers (.702 OPS) against righties.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports was the first to report the signing, with ESPN's Jerry Crasnick adding that it was a minor league deal and that the Giants also had interest in Chavez's services (both links are to Twitter).
Minor Moves: Figueroa, McPherson, Bocock, Bush
Tonight’s minor moves, courtesy of Baseball America’s Matt Eddy (all links go to Twitter)..
- The Diamondbacks signed right-handers Nelson Figueroa, Alexis Lara, and Warner Madrigal, Eddy tweets. Figueroa, 38, spent 2012 with the Yankees and Red Sox‘s Triple-A affiliates. The veteran posted a 3.89 ERA with 5.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 15 starts and ten relief appearances.
- The Dodgers signed journeyman third baseman Dallas McPherson, according to Eddy. The 32-year-old infielder has hit 144 HR at the Triple-A level for Pirates, White Sox, Athletics, Marlins, and Angels with a .276/.349/.572 batting line.
- The Nationals signed defensive-minded shortstop Brian Bocock to a minor league deal, Eddy tweets. Bocock spent last year with the Blue Jays in the minors.
- Right-hander Dave Bush will return from pitching in Korea to sign with the Blue Jays, Eddy reports. Toronto originally drafted him in the second-round in 2002.
- The Reds inked 7’1″ right-hander Loek Van Mil, whose is better than his numbers would indicate, in Eddy’s opinion.
- The White Sox signed utility man Andy Gonzalez, and right-hander Jeff Gray while re-signing catcher Damaso Espino and right-hander Matt Zaleski.
- The Cubs signed right-handers Andrew Carpenter and Cory Wade plus first baseman Brad Nelson to minor league deals. Wade elected free agency from the Blue Jays in late November.
- The Giants signed outfielder Cole Gillespie, a 28-year-old right-handed hitter with a career .390 OBP in Triple-A for the Diamondbacks and Brewers.
Giants Claim Sandy Rosario
Sandy Rosario's offseason journey continued today, as the Giants claimed the right-hander off of waivers from the Cubs, Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com reports (on Twitter).
Rosario’s offseason began when the Red Sox claimed him from the Marlins on October 17th. Boston then traded him to Oakland for a player to be named later or cash considerations on November 28th. The A's then designated Rosario for assignment at which point the Red Sox claimed him a second time. His stay in Boston didn’t last long, however; the Cubs claimed him on December 12th.
Rosario, 27, pitched in four games for this year's Marlins team, but spent most of the season in the minor leagues. He posted a 1.99 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 31 2/3 total innings for three of Miami's affiliates.
Quick Hits: Saunders, Cubs, Soriano, Gonzalez
The Orioles would like to re-sign Joe Saunders and have continued talks with him, according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com (on Twitter). They'll have plenty of competition for the left-hander, however, as he is drawing high interest from three other clubs. Here's more from around baseball..
- On today’s edition of the Rosters & Rumblings podcast, MLBTR’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Jason Martinez of MLB Depth Charts discussed the Mariners–Angels trade, the Cubs’ new-look rotation, and some recent trade rumors.
- The Dodgers are still kicking the tires on Joel Hanrahan of the Pirates and free agent Brian Wilson as they look to deepen their bullpen, but they aren't in the mix for Rafael Soriano, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (on Twitter).
- The Nationals continue to talk to Mike Gonzalez about returning and the Reds are also in pursuit, Bowden tweets.
- Sources tell Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (on Twitter) that the Rangers were never serious bidders for Edwin Jackson. The right-hander signed a four-year, $52MM contract with the Cubs earlier today.
- Mariners General Manager Jack Zduriencik has landed a bigger bat for the middle of his lineup, but that doesn't mean Seattle is done with its roster maneuverings, writes Greg Johns of MLB.com. The Mariners still have financial flexibility since they should several million dollars in the difference between what Kendrys Morales ($4.8MM) will earn compared to Jason Vargas ($7.4MM) in their final year of arbitration eligibility.
- Dexter Fowler told Jim Bowden of SiriusXM (on Twitter) that Rockies General Manager Bill Geivett told him that it would take a lot in return for them to deal him to the Braves. Atlanta is targeting Fowler along with Emilio Bonifacio and other outfield options.
Yankees Re-Sign Ichiro Suzuki
The Yankees have officially re-signed Ichiro Suzuki, the team announced. It's a two-year contract worth $13MM. Agent Tony Attanasio represents Ichiro.
The Yankees have pursued a strategy of signing veterans (such as Kevin Youkilis, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera) to one-year deals this winter, but were forced to make a two-year commitment to the 39-year-old Ichiro due to competing multiyear offers. The Phillies pushed hard for Ichiro and offered him a two-year, $14MM deal, while the Giants were believed to have offered the outfielder a two-year, $15MM contract. While the other offers were larger, Ichiro took the Yankees' contract after telling the team he wanted to remain in New York.
Ichiro will join two other left-handed hitters in New York’s outfield: Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner. The team is exploring the idea of adding a right-handed complement to the group, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported earlier this offseason.
Ichiro ranked 40th on MLBTR’s list of top 50 free agents this offseason. The 39-year-old posted a .283/.307/.390 batting line in 663 plate appearances for the Mariners and Yankees this past season. However, his performance improved considerably after the Yankees acquired him in a midseason trade (he hit .322/.340/.454 with New York). Ichiro has 2,606 hits, two batting titles, ten All-Star Game selections and a career .322/.365/.419 in 12 MLB seasons.
Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com and WFAN's Craig Carton first reporting the deal was done (on Twitter). Rosenthal, ESPN's Buster Olney, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News, Joel Sherman of the New York Post, and the New York Times' David Waldstein all added information about the various aspects of the signing.
Mark Polishuk and Mike Axisa also contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of US Presswire.
Quick Hits: Mickelson, Jackson, Hamilton, Tigers
As the newly-signed Hiroyuki Nakajima becomes a comic hit during his introductory press conference with the A's, here's the latest from around baseball…
- Phil Mickelson will not be part of the Padres' ownership group, reports Tod Leonard of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The golf star said he isn't "able to make that kind of long-term commitment to the city and to the team."
- It doesn't seem logical for the Rangers to give Edwin Jackson (what would have to be) a four-year, $50MM contract, opines MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan. We heard earlier tonight that the Rangers and Cubs were the final two contenders for Jackson's services.
- Major League Baseball has ruled that the $2MM the Angels will donate to Josh Hamilton's charitable foundation will count towards the team's luxury tax payments and be counted as "noncash compensation," reports The Associated Press. FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal noted the charitable portion of Hamilton's contract earlier today.
- It can be difficult for players to mentally adjust to the "baseball limbo" that is the offseason rumor mill, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick writes.
- Money has been no object for Tigers owner Mike Ilitch as he pursues a World Series title, but ESPN's Buster Olney wonders if the Tigers' next owner will be able to keep the club's payroll in the $150MM range given the limitations of Detroit's market. (An ESPN Insider subscription is required to read Olney's column.)
- Nick Swisher will not be visiting the Giants during his tour of potential destinations, tweets Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. With the Giants not having enough payroll space left to pursue Swisher, I think we can finally put this rumor to bed.
- The Twins and Carl Pavano don't appear to be a fit, MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger writes. The two sides met during the Winter Meetings and though Pavano has pitched well in Minnesota, he turns 37 in January and missed most of last season with an injured shoulder. I agree with Bollinger that the Twins would probably want a more reliable option than Pavano given that several other projected members of the Twins rotation are also coming back from injuries.
- Baseball people suggest Trevor Bauer has a better chance of becoming an impact player than Didi Gregorius, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. The Diamondbacks sent Bauer to the Indians last week in the three-team deal that brought Gregorius to Arizona. As Piecoro explains in detail, however, there were some questions about Bauer's personality and his ability to be a team player.
MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post
Giants Agree To Sign Santiago Casilla
The Giants and right-hander Santiago Casilla have agreed to a three-year, $15MM contract with a vesting option for a fourth season. The deal will pay Casilla $4.5MM in 2013 and 2014 and $5MM in 2015, plus a $1MM buyout for 2016 if his option doesn't vest. Casilla is represtented by ACES. 
The 32-year-old right-hander pitched to a 2.84 ERA with a 7.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 55 percent ground-ball rate in 63 1/3 innings for the World Champion Giants in 2012. In three seasons with the team, Casilla has a 2.22 ERA over the course of 170 1/3 innings.
Casilla took over as the team's closer when Brian Wilson went down with Tommy John surgery early in the season and led the Giants with 25 saves on the year. As a result, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected that Casilla would earn $5.4MM in his third year of arbitration eligibility. The contract buys out that final year of arbitration and gives the Giants control over two of Casilla's free agent seasons, with an option for a third.
As MLBTR's Transaction Tracker shows, Giants general manager Brian Sabean has done his best to keep his World Series winning roster together this offseason. He's brought back Jeremy Affeldt and Marco Scutaro on three-year deals and re-signed Angel Pagan to a four-year deal. Sabean also signed Andres Torres to a one-year deal, who was a part of San Francisco's 2010 World Series team.
Hank Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle was the first to break the news of the signing, plus the contract length and payment breakdown (all links to Twitter). Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports and Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area Twitter also added details about the move (both Twitter links).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Minor Moves: Marlins, Albaladejo, Giants
We’ll keep track of today’s minor moves in this post..
- The Marlins signed right-handers Jonathan Albaladejo and Amaury Rivas plus shortstop Ed Lucas to minor league deals, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (via Twitter). Albaladejo, 30, is best known for his time with the Yankees from 2008-10 where he posted a 4.70 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9. Rivas, 26, has spent the last eight years in the Brewers‘ system and the last two in Triple-A.
- The Giants signed 27-year-old former Athletics prospect Javier Herrera, according to Eddy (via Twitter).