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Giants Interview Alyssa Nakken For Manager’s Job

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The Giants’ managerial search has mostly been focused on internal candidates thus far, and another in-house name has now been added to the list, as The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly reports that assistant coach Alyssa Nakken has interviewed in regards to the managerial vacancy.

Nakken has been a member of San Francisco’s organization since 2014, starting as an intern and then working in “a hybrid role within the front office that included event logistics, business development and coordinating health and wellness initiatives,” Baggarly writes.  This paved the way for Nakken’s hiring as an assistant coach prior to the 2020 season, making her the first woman to be part of a Major League team’s coaching staff.  Continuing this trailblazing path, Nakken is now the first woman known to ever formally interview to be a Major League manager.

The Giants assembled an unusually large coaching staff under former manager Gabe Kapler, as Nakken was one of 13 coaches assembled to provide players with a wide variety of personalized assessment.  Baggarly notes that Nakken’s duties focused on in-game planning, baserunning, and outfield instruction.

Beyond the obvious historic significance of what her hire would mean, the Giants’ interest in Nakken also continues the team’s apparent preference towards a first-time manager.  None of the internal names (bench coach Kai Correa, third base coach Mark Hallberg, adviser and former third base coach Ron Wotus, and catching bullpen coach Craig Albernaz) who have interviewed or are on the radar for interviews have ever managed at the MLB level before, apart from Correa’s three games as interim manager this season after Kapler was fired.  Hallberg and Albarnaz have managed a couple of years in the minors, while Wotus has seven seasons of minor league managing but not since 1997.

Kapler wasn’t a first-time manager when hired by the Giants in 2020, as he had previously been the Phillies’ skipper for the previous two seasons.  However, Kapler did fit the modern style of a younger, more analytically-inclined manager who works closely with the front office in shaping game-day strategies.  With all of San Francisco’s known candidates except Wotus fitting this general description, it would seem that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is leaning towards a first-time hire, and perhaps someone already familiar with how the Giants operate.  Beyond just the in-house names, Rangers bench coach Donnie Ecker has also been mentioned as person of interest in the Giants’ search, and Ecker worked as the Giants’ hitting coach in 2020-21 before moving on to Texas.

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Giants, Lovullo, Angels

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The Red Sox were previously reported to have interest in former Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill to head their baseball operations department, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale relays that Hill has “no interest” in leaving his role as MLB’s senior vice president of on-field operations to return to work in a front office. Hill is the latest potential candidate to decline to interview for the position, joining former Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and Arizona GM Mike Hazen.

Nightengale adds that while the Red Sox have (as previously reported) interviewed assistant GM Eddie Romero for the position, the favorite to take over for Chaim Bloom as the club’s chief baseball officer could be Phillies GM Sam Fuld. It’s unclear to this point if Fuld has interviewed for the position. He’s under contract with the Phillies through 2025 after signing an extension last winter, meaning the Phillies would have to grant the Red Sox permission to interview Fuld for the role. That being said, it’s somewhat rare for organizations to stand in the way of their personnel interviewing for a potential promotion as this would be for Fuld, who serves as the club’s second-in-command to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who previously helmed the Red Sox from 2015 to 2019.

Other notes from around the league…

  • Nightengale adds that the Diamondbacks are expected to offer manager Torey Lovullo a multi-year contract extension this winter. That’s hardly a surprise, seeing as Hazen, who the club recently extended through 2028, previously indicated that the club could look to retain Lovullo beyond the 2024 campaign in the event that Arizona went on to make the postseason. The DBacks, of course, have done far more than that, making it all the way to the NLCS after sweeping the Brewers in the Wild Card series and the Dodgers in the NLDS.
  • FanSided’s Robert Murray noted yesterday that Giants bench coach and interim manager Kai Correa has been interviewed for the club’s vacant manager seat. Correa joins third-base coach Mark Hallberg as the only known candidates to interview for the position. Correa, 35, began his coaching career immediately after graduating college in 2010. He spent four seasons with his alma mater, University of Puget Sound, and another four seasons coaching for the University of Northern Colorado. His first professional coaching role came with Cleveland in 2018, for whom he served as an infield coach in the Arizona Complex League. He stayed with the organization in 2019 before joining the Giants ahead of the 2020 season in his current role as bench coach.
  • Jon Heyman of the New York Post recently noted that the Angels, who have been reported to have mutual interest with Buck Showalter regarding the club’s managerial vacancy, are seeking a veteran manager for the 2024 campaign. While Showalter certainly fits that description, another candidate Heyman puts forth is Darin Erstad, who played for the Angels in 11 major league seasons and in retirement served as the head coach for University of Nebraska, with whom he spent eight seasons in the role.

Giants, Athletics Discussed Offseason Trade Involving Sean Murphy, Marco Luciano

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The Giants and Athletics usually don’t combine for many trades, but the two Bay Area rivals got deep into talks about a possible blockbuster last winter, according to Tim Kawakami and Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic.  Kawakami reported back in July that the two teams “apparently were closing in on a deal” that would’ve involved Sean Murphy heading to the Giants, and star shortstop prospect Marco Luciano going to the A’s.  In a piece today, Baggarly reports that San Francisco was willing to move Luciano, but talks fell apart when the Athletics asked for pitching prospect Kyle Harrison as part of the deal.

The specifics of the trade proposal or any other players involved isn’t known, nor is it known if the A’s wanted Harrison instead of Luciano as the centerpiece of a trade package, or wanted both Harrison and Luciano in the deal.  The former scenario seems likelier, as the Giants probably would’ve walked away a lot earlier had Oakland demanded both of San Francisco’s top prospects.

Oakland instead dealt Murphy as part of one of the offseason’s biggest trades — a three-team, nine-player deal between the A’s, Braves, and Brewers that saw Murphy go to Atlanta and William Contreras to Milwaukee.  Murphy lived up to expectations in his first year in Atlanta, making the All-Star team and hitting .251/.365/.478 with 21 homers over 438 plate appearances.  The Brewers were also big winners in the trade, since not only did Contreras shine offensively while making big strides with his glovework, reliever Joel Payamps suddenly emerged as a top-tier setup man.  The A’s bought some new young talent on board in their latest rebuild, most prominently the addition of American League stolen base leader Esteury Ruiz.

Beyond the incredible speed, however, Ruiz’s overall offensive profile is still a little shaky, making him less than a true cornerstone piece for the Athletics.  Some criticism has been leveled at the A’s front office for their returns on the trades of Murphy, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and others during this latest fire sale, with the most common argument being that the Athletics seemed to aim for quantity over true top-drawer quality.  Though we don’t know the exact nature of the deal the A’s and Giants were proposing, the inclusion of Luciano (or Harrison) would’ve brought one clear-cut top prospect to Oakland’s organization.

The three-team trade had such an immediate impact on the 2023 season that it would’ve created quite the ripple effect had Murphy instead ended up in San Francisco.  It can be argued that the Brewers might not have won the NL Central without Contreras carrying an otherwise shaky lineup, or without Payamps combining with closer Devin Williams to form a lockdown combo at the end of games.  Without those pieces in place, maybe the door is open for the Cubs or Reds to win the NL Central instead.

The Braves’ stacked lineup perhaps might not have missed a beat with Contreras instead of Murphy behind the plate, and Atlanta’s pursuit of Murphy was considered something of a surprise whatsoever since Contreras and Travis d’Arnaud were already in the fold.  That said, the Braves obviously felt they were getting an upgrade over the long term, considering they liked Murphy enough to almost immediately sign him to a six-year extension soon after the trade.  Such an extension might not have been on the table for Contreras.  While the Braves have a penchant for locking up their players, the fact that they dealt Contreras indicates some level of reservation, even if it might’ve been ultimately more a case of Atlanta particularly liking Murphy more than “disliking” Contreras, per se.

By that same dint, the Giants’ apparent willingness to move Luciano shouldn’t be an indication that the Giants are somehow down on the young shortstop.  In fact, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is heading into 2024 aiming to give Luciano at least “the chance“ to be the starting shortstop, underlining the 22-year-old Luciano’s importance to the organization as a building block.  Pundits have considered Luciano has been regarded as at least a top-37 prospect in each of the last four seasons, and he only just made his MLB debut this season, making 45 plate appearances in 14 games.

Dealing away a blue chip prospect like Luciano likely wouldn’t have been a possibility for the Giants at all if a unique trade opportunity (i.e. a controllable high-level catcher like Murphy) hadn’t been available.  The exact timing of the talks with the Athletics were also probably a factor, as the Giants might’ve been more willing to move Luciano if they’d thought Carlos Correa was joining the roster, yet Correa’s 13-year, $350MM agreement with San Francisco ended up falling through due to medical concerns on the Giants’ end.

Had the Giants acquired Murphy, they would’ve landed the signature star they were searching for without success last winter, after the Correa deal collapsed and after Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees.  Perhaps adding Murphy might’ve been the spark San Francisco needed to get over the line in the wild card race, as in this alternate reality, the Giants have both Murphy and perhaps another MLB-caliber regular they received in a Patrick Bailey trade.  It is fair to wonder whether Bailey would’ve been shipped out in a world where Murphy is a Giant, instead of our world where Bailey emerged as a rookie and now looks like he’ll be San Francisco’s catcher of the present and future.

It makes for a fun cascade of what-if scenarios, and Bailey’s potential availability then stretches the web beyond just what might’ve happened with the Giants, A’s, Brewers, and Braves.  San Francisco fans may rue missing out on Murphy, though if Bailey continues to develop and Luciano lives up to the hype, the team might end up coming out ahead.

Latest On Giants’ Managerial Search

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The Giants interviewed third-base coach Mark Hallberg this week in regards to the manager’s job, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  Hallberg becomes the first candidate known to officially sit down for an interview, though several other internal candidates are also on the radar.  Bench coach and interim manager Kai Correa and longtime former third base coach Ron Wotus are expected to receive interviews, Slusser writes, and catching/bullpen coach Craig Albernaz could also be considered.  Albernaz has already been interviewed by the Guardians in regards to their own managerial vacancy.

Hallberg, however, “is emerging as the top in-house candidate” to replace the fired Gabe Kapler, Slusser notes.  The 37-year-old Hallberg has been part of San Francisco’s coaching staff for the last four seasons, moving from an assistant coach role to taking over from Wotus as third base coach prior to the 2022 campaign.  After playing five seasons in the Diamondbacks’ minor league system from 2007-11, Hallberg moved on to coaching at the high school level, and then for four seasons in the Cape Cod League.  He joined the Giants organization as a coach of their former lower-A affiliate in Salem-Keizer in 2018, and then managed the club in 2019.

If the Giants did hire Hallberg, he would be the club’s first (non-interim) first-time MLB manager since Dusty Baker got the job in 1993, though Baker obviously had a larger breadth of Major League experience from his long playing career and his coaching career before moving into the manager’s chair.  Considering the increasing impatience from Giants fans to see the team get back on the winning track, Hallberg would immediately face a lot of pressure, though Slusser notes that it could be a popular hire within the team since Hallberg is “well regarded by everyone in the organization.”

Correa and Wotus aren’t surprising names on the list of possibilities, and this would be the second time Wotus has interviewed for the manager’s job — the Giants spoke with Wotus during the 2019-20 offseason prior to hiring Kapler.  Wotus has spent the last 35 seasons in the San Francisco organization as a minor league player, then as a manager in the minor league system, and then an extended coaching stint that lasted from 1998-2021.  Nineteen of those seasons on staff were served as a bench coach, with Wotus acting as the right-hand man for managers Baker, Felipe Alou, and Bruce Bochy.  The 62-year-old Wotus has worked as an advisor within the Giants organization for the last two seasons.

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said he hoped to have the team’s new manager hired before the free agent period fully opens, which occurs five days after the end of the World Series.  There haven’t been many public reports about external candidates who may or may not be of interest to the Giants or have spoken to the club already, but Slusser reports that Rangers bench coach Donnie Ecker “is expected to be among the potential front-runners” as San Francisco’s next manager.

Ecker is a familiar face in the Bay Area, having worked as a hitting coach with the Giants in 2020-21.  Other teams with managerial vacancies (the Guardians, Mets, and Angels) might also have interest in speaking with Ecker, though the Rangers’ increasingly deep playoff run is a complication, as any interviews would have to be built into breaks in the postseason schedule.

Austin Slater Undergoes Elbow Surgery

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Giants outfielder Austin Slater underwent surgery on his right elbow today, the team announced (as reported by Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). He had a bone spur removed at the back of his elbow, as well as an ulnar nerve transposition to help relieve nerve pain. His rehab should take about four months, which means the 30-year-old would be ready to go next spring.

Slater took a couple of trips to the injured list this season with left hamstring strains, and he also missed time in September dealing with vertigo. Indeed, he has developed a bit of a reputation as an injury-prone player in recent years, spending time on the IL with hand, wrist, and groin injuries, as well as a concussion. His elbow issues have also caused him trouble for years, although he has been able to play through the pain. While he missed time this past spring training with elbow neuritis, he has never gone on the IL with an elbow injury.

One of the longest-tenured players on the Giants roster, Slater made his debut for San Francisco in 2017. He broke out during the shortened 2020 season, slashing .282/.408/.506 in 31 games, and he has remained an above-average hitter in the years since, albeit in a platoon role. Over the last three seasons, he has posted a 114 wRC+, largely due to his excellent performance against left-handed pitching. The veteran is also a versatile defender, capable of playing all three outfield positions, plus first base in a pinch.

Slater will be arbitration-eligible for the fourth and final time this winter and is projected to earn $3.6MM next year. He is set to reach free agency the following offseason, and with a healthy and pain-free elbow, he’ll hope to put up an impressive walk year in 2024.

Jim Poole Passes Away

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Former big leaguer Jim Poole passed away yesterday at the age of 57. Poole, a left-handed reliever who pitched in 11 big league seasons from 1990-2000, pitched for eight MLB clubs during his career and was diagnosed with ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease, back in 2021. Beyond his big league career, Poole worked with the MLB Players’ Association for many years as a member of the union’s pension committee, and more recently served as chairman of the Major League Alumni Marketing board.

“Jim Poole left an indelible mark through the years as a teammate, friend, committed advocate for his fellow players, and, most importantly, a loving and devoted family man,” a statement from the MLBPA reads, “He was an inspiration during his playing career and a shining example of courage and grace in his fight against ALS.”

After being drafted in the ninth-round of the 1988 draft by the Dodgers out of the Georgia Institute of Technology, Poole made his MLB debut with the Dodgers in 1990, posting a 4.22 ERA in 10 2/3 innings. In 1991, Poole briefly suited up for the Rangers but made just five appearances before joining the Orioles, with whom he’d stay from 1991-94. During his time in Baltimore, Poole posted a 2.86 ERA that was 55% better than league average by measure of ERA+ with a FIP of 3.65.

Poole moved on to Cleveland in 1995 and posted a 3.75 ERA in 50 1/3 innings before going on to pitch for the club in the World Series that year. After starting the 1996 season with the club, he was moved to the Giants midway through the season and stayed there for three seasons before ultimately returning to Cleveland late in the 1998 season. Though 1996 was among the best seasons of Poole’s career, with a 2.86 ERA in 50 1/3 innings of work, he struggled badly during the 1997 and ’98 seasons. He got back on his feet somewhat in 1999, posting a 4.33 ERA in 35 1/3 innings with the Phillies, though he struggled upon returning to Cleveland late in the year. Poole’s MLB career came to a close in 2000 after 10 2/3 innings of work split between the Tigers and Expos.

After his playing days came to an end, Poole remained active in the MLBPA and also worked as an investment manager for big league players. After being diagnosed with ALS in 2021, Poole became active in raising awareness regarding the disease. He was a board member of the nonprofit ALS Cure Project, which was founded in honor of Gretchen Piscotty, the mother of former big league outfielder Stephen Piscotty after she passed away in 2018. More recently, Poole was honored by the Orioles at Camden Yards last year on Lou Gehrig Day. Poole’s accomplishments off the field add to a resume that includes a career 4.31 ERA and 4.51 FIP in 363 big league innings during the regular season, along with a 2.45 career ERA during the postseason.

We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to Poole’s family, friends, loved ones and former teammates/colleagues.

29 Players Elect Free Agency

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October brings postseason play for a handful of teams and their fanbases. Just over two-thirds of the league is now in offseason mode after being eliminated, however. As the season comes to a close, a number of veterans will hit minor league free agency.

These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. The first group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Zaidi: Giants Have Scouted Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jung Hoo Lee

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During a podcast interview with NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said that his club has been scouting and “continuing to do our work on” two of the offseason’s biggest international targets — ace right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto of NPB’s Orix Buffaloes, and star outfielder Jung Hoo Lee of the KBO League’s Kiwoom Heroes.

At least 10 MLB teams are known to be scouting Yamamoto already, with the Giants joining a list that includes (and certainly isn’t limited to) the Phillies, Mets, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Tigers, Yankees, and Red Sox.  The appeal is obvious, as Yamamoto has a 1.82 ERA over his seven seasons and 897 innings with the Buffaloes, and he should have plenty of prime years left since he just turned 25 years old in August.

Zaidi described Yamamoto as “one of the top starting pitchers in the world,” praising the right-hander’s “tremendous combination of athleticism, stuff and command….It just looks like he’s got plus stuff and he’s sort of putting every pitch where he wants to, which in this day and age where we’re so worried about pitch characteristics and velocity, it’s almost different to see somebody execute at that high of a level with good stuff.  A lot of positives there, and he’s been an impressive guy to watch.”

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Yamamoto third in our most recent power ranking of the 2023-24 free agent class, behind only Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger.  This makes Yamamoto in line to receive the largest deal of any full-time pitcher this winter, with Ohtani obviously a unique case due to his two-way abilities.  The bidding for Yamamoto (and the posting fee to the Buffaloes) could put his total price tag close to $200MM, especially with so many big-payroll teams in the running.

The Giants’ payroll was roughly $196MM in 2023 according to Roster Resource, so while still a healthy amount of salary outlay, San Francisco remained below the upper tier of spenders.  However, it wasn’t for lack of try to spend, as the Giants’ attempts to sign Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa both didn’t materialize, due to Judge re-signing with the Yankees and with the Correa signing seemingly all but finalized before the Giants backed out due to concerns over his physical.

With very little in the way of long-term payroll commitments and increased pressure to win after a pair of non-playoff seasons, the Giants figure to be aggressive this winter, which generally runs counter to Zaidi’s more measured approach to roster construction during his five seasons as PBO.  As Pavlovic notes, Zaidi has shied away from longer-term contracts to pitchers (apart from the club’s extension with the homegrown Logan Webb).

During his end-of-season media conference just a few days ago, Zaidi said he wasn’t planning on targeting pitching depth in general this winter, as he feels San Francisco already has plenty of veteran pitchers and younger arms coming up from the farm system.  That said, Yamamoto is far more than a depth option, and his youth and obvious talent have seemingly made the Giants comfortable in exploring the possibility of what would be far and away the biggest contract (let alone a pitching contract) of Zaidi’s tenure.

Lee doesn’t have Yamamoto’s high profile and he’ll come at a significantly lower price tag, but Lee could very well land a healthy contract himself during an offseason that is generally short on premium free-agent position players.  Like Yamamoto, Lee is also 25 years old, would be subject to a posting fee, and has impressed observers over seven seasons of international ball.

Lee has hit .340/.407/.491 over 3946 career plate appearances for the Heroes, with 65 homers and 244 doubles.  His resume includes KBO League MVP honors in 2022, five KBO Gold Gloves for his defense (mostly in center field), and a standout performance for South Korea’s team in the last World Baseball Classic.

The hitter-friendly nature of the KBO League can sometimes make it hard to fully evaluate a player’s statistics, and Lee is also coming off an injury-shortened 2023 campaign due to a fractured ankle.  However, Lee is expected to be healthy, and his skillset offers plenty of intrigue even beyond his batting potential.  Since improving the defense is a stated goal for Zaidi this winter, adding Lee as San Francisco’s new regular center fielder would allow for Mike Yastrzemski or Austin Slater to play in the corner outfield slots.  Former top prospect Luis Matos projects as the Giants’ 2024 center fielder for the moment, but with Lee on board, Matos could be eased into the big leagues in more of a part-time role.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants disappointed for a second straight year, finishing below .500 after flirting with Wild Card contention into the season’s final month. They fired their manager and head into the offseason in need of star talent to elevate a roster that has been built on solid depth but lacked impact players beyond its ace.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments (if all player options exercised): $104MM
Total future commitments: $222MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

The Giants have been a league average team for two consecutive seasons. They’ve been unable to build off their surprising 107-win campaign of 2021. Pressure is building for the organization to figure things out.

They already made one major change. San Francisco fired manager Gabe Kapler during the final weekend of the regular season. It was a surprising alteration of course, as chairman Greg Johnson had said just two weeks ago that both Kapler and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi would be retained.

Instead, the organization decided a change was necessary. That’s perhaps related to some clubhouse discontent. Ace Logan Webb took a shot at the franchise as the season was winding down, saying the club needed “big changes” to create a “winning mentality” in 2024. Webb didn’t publicly call for a managerial change, to be clear, but Zaidi acknowledged the organization needed “to rethink everything” shortly before Kapler was fired (relayed by Danny Emerman of KNBR).

A common complaint among fans and occasionally heard from players is that the Giants had become too matchup-dependent. They’ve been among the sport’s most aggressive teams in platooning hitters. They took a flexible approach to the pitching staff, generally patching things together with openers and bullpen games behind their top two starters of Webb and Alex Cobb.

All of that was true in 2021, when it worked to great effect. Every major league team deploys those strategies to varying degrees. Yet it’s possible that whomever the Giants tab to lead the team prioritizes more consistent roles for players than existed under Kapler. Zaidi said last week the team hoped to have a new manager in place by the start of the free agent period.

By the time free agency gets underway, San Francisco will have more clarity about its payroll picture. The Giants seem likely to exercise a $10MM option to retain Cobb, who turned in a 3.87 ERA over 28 appearances. The veteran righty is headed for a second opinion on a balky left hip (via Maria Guardado of MLB.com). Perhaps that examination reveals a more serious injury that leads the club to reconsider the option, but if he’s healthy, the $8MM difference between the option price and the buyout is strong value.

San Francisco has no control over the other three option decisions on the table. Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea and Michael Conforto all have player provisions. Stripling’s and Manaea’s are valued at $12.5MM, while Conforto would make $18MM. Stripling has already declared he’ll opt in after a down first season in the Bay Area. The other two players could at least consider opting out in search of multi-year agreements. Manaea, who turned in a quietly strong second half working mostly in multi-inning relief, seems likelier to hit the market than Conforto — particularly if he wants a guaranteed rotation spot.

They’d join a handful of other notable impending free agents. Brandon Crawford has been the starting shortstop for over a decade. Crawford won four Gold Gloves, was an integral part of the 2012 and ’14 World Series teams, and finished fourth in NL MVP balloting during a resurgent 2021 campaign. He had a stellar run in San Francisco and earned a well-deserved ovation from the fanbase on the final day of the season. He hasn’t hit much over the last two years, though, leading the organization to likely move on.

Zaidi said yesterday the club viewed 22-year-old Marco Luciano as the frontrunner for the shortstop job. It’s a risky play, as Luciano has all of 32 games of experience above the Double-A level. He struck out at a near-30% clip through 242 trips to the plate in Double-A this year. Luciano has obvious power potential and a patient plate approach, but he’s likely to strike out a lot in his initial crack at major league pitching.

That’s suboptimal for a team that hopes to compete next season, although it’s also a testament to the weakness of the middle infield market. Free agency doesn’t offer any everyday shortstop options. There aren’t any locks to be made available in trade. Perhaps a non-tender or declined option (like the White Sox with Tim Anderson) or a surprising trade possibility (e.g. Tommy Edman, Willy Adames) changes the calculus. For now, Luciano appears the in-house favorite.

There’s a little more stability around the rest of the infield. Thairo Estrada is a quality second baseman. J.D. Davis received mixed reviews from public metrics for his defensive work at third base. He’s a good hitter who’s under arbitration control for one more season. Perhaps the Giants could float him in trade offers with Wilmer Flores on hand as another righty-hitting corner infielder. Retaining Davis and keeping Flores at first base/designated hitter would also be a fine outcome. Lefty-hitting LaMonte Wade Jr. picked up the bulk of the first base reps as part of a platoon with Flores.

San Francisco could have an opening at designated hitter. Joc Pederson hits the market for the second straight year. The Giants made Pederson a $19.65MM qualifying offer last winter, which he accepted. He’s ineligible for the QO this time around and wouldn’t be in consideration for it anyway after his offensive production dipped. Pederson is a capable left-handed platoon option at DH, but it’s a rather limited profile that inhibits the team’s defensive flexibility.

Zaidi indicated yesterday that upgrading the defense was one of the club’s biggest goals (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). Only the Rockies and Royals, who play in two of the sport’s most spacious home parks, have seen a higher percentage of batted balls fall for hits over the last two seasons. Oracle Park’s dimensions are tough to patrol as well, though few would consider the past couple Giants teams as being among the league’s most athletic.

Letting Pederson walk could aid the defense by freeing a few more DH at-bats for Conforto (if he returns) and/or Mitch Haniger. That clears corner outfield at-bats for Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater. Rookies Tyler Fitzgerald and Luis Matos are options to assume more center field reps in that regard, though the Giants could certainly look for more offense there — especially if they’re already counting on Luciano as an unproven shortstop.

There are few more obvious fits than San Francisco for Cody Bellinger. The Giants showed interest in Bellinger after he was non-tendered by the Dodgers last winter. The former MVP signed with the Cubs, had the rebound year he’d been seeking, and now seems set to land a contract in the $200-250MM range in his return trip to the open market. Bellinger is an above-average defensive center fielder who dramatically cut his strikeout rate this season. He doesn’t have the same power he had before 2020 shoulder surgery, but he’s a well-rounded player and one of the few star hitters available in free agency.

It’s a similar position in which San Francisco found itself last winter. They have a fair bit of position player depth but lack an impact player capable of anchoring a lineup. The Giants tried for Aaron Judge, only to see him return to the Yankees. They agreed to terms with Carlos Correa before the physical led them to nix the agreement. By the time the Correa deal collapsed, all the other star players had signed elsewhere.

While it’s little consolation to the fanbase after another middling season, missing out on Correa and Judge leaves the Giants with ample long-term payroll flexibility. Their 2024 commitments are more than $100MM south of the base luxury tax threshold. They have just over $40MM on the books beyond next season. There’s plenty of room for a splash, whether that’s Bellinger … or perhaps the market’s top free agent.

San Francisco was among the seven reported finalists for Shohei Ohtani during his first trip to the free agency six years ago. That process wasn’t about money so much as pitching the organization to the two-way star, as his earning power was capped by the bonus pool system for international amateurs. There’s no such limit this time around. Ohtani will almost certainly set the all-time contract record. Teams will still have to pitch themselves as legitimate contenders, but they’ll also have to put hundreds of millions on the table.

The Giants’ reported proposal around $360MM for Judge and agreement with Correa on what would have been a $350MM deal offer proof of concept they’re willing to spend on top-of-the-market talent. Yet Ohtani could find himself in another stratosphere altogether. Whether San Francisco ownership is willing to keep pace with potential bids from the Dodgers, Mets, Rangers and others is to be determined. It’s a similar question if San Francisco can legitimately market itself as a perennial contender to the expected AL MVP.

There could be a fair bit of pressure on the front office to land one of Ohtani or Bellinger. They’re the clear top two in free agency. San Francisco could ostensibly trade Davis to accommodate a nine-figure deal for Matt Chapman, though he’s less clear of an offensive cornerstone for a lineup that needs one.

The Giants are set behind the plate. While Patrick Bailey struggled offensively towards the end of the season, the former #13 overall pick rated as an excellent defender and showed legitimate power upside in the first half of his rookie campaign. He’s the clear long-term catcher. Rule 5 draftee Blake Sabol played well enough to hold the backup job.

That doesn’t leave much room for one-time second overall pick Joey Bart. The righty-hitting catcher has been mentioned as a trade candidate for a few seasons. He has yet to establish himself as a big league caliber hitter. Bart was drafted by the previous front office regime — Bailey was selected by Zaidi’s front office — and will be out of minor league options next spring. He’ll have to be on the major league roster or made available to other teams. It makes sense to move him this offseason, even though the return would be limited at this point.

Perhaps a team like the Marlins or Yankees would offer a potential back-of-the-rotation arm for Bart. San Francisco will need to add stability to the back of the staff. Webb is a legitimate #1 starter. Cobb, if healthy, is a quality mid-rotation piece.

The rest of the group is unsettled. Manaea could opt out. Stripling spent most of 2023 in the bullpen. Alex Wood is a free agent. Anthony DeSclafani is under contract for one more season but posted a 4.88 ERA in 19 appearances and didn’t pitch from late July onward thanks to a flexor strain.

Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn reached the big leagues in 2023. The former is one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects. He’s likely to hold a season-opening rotation spot after a promising debut in which he turned in a 4.15 ERA with solid strikeout and walk marks through his first seven starts. Winn had decent results in a hitter-friendly Triple-A environment and seems likely to start next season in a depth role.

Between DeSclafani’s elbow and the risk of any rookie (even one as talented as Harrison), the Giants need more rotation stability. That’d only become more pressing if Cobb is seriously injured. San Francisco has shied away from long-term free agent investments in starting pitching. Under Zaidi, they’ve targeted reclamation plays like DeSclafani, Kevin Gausman and Manaea. They took on some injury uncertainty with Carlos Rodón but limited that to a two-year, $44MM guarantee. After Gausman and Rodón had excellent seasons that put them in the nine-figure range, San Francisco moved on. While they signed Webb to a five-year contract extension, that’s quite a bit different than signing a top-of-the-market starter in free agency.

San Francisco may have to aim higher this offseason. Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are the best starters available beyond Ohtani, who won’t pitch until 2025. Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery should exceed the $110MM that Gausman received from the Blue Jays a couple years back. Sonny Gray might not be far off that mark.

The Giants could ostensibly make a run at Bellinger and one of those starters. San Francisco had an Opening Day player payroll around $187MM this past season, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve topped $200MM in the past. They’d have only $112MM in guaranteed commitments for next year if all of Conforto, Stripling and Manaea opt in and they retain Cobb.

A strong arbitration class could tack on another $30MM, but that still leaves around $40MM in spending room. A trade of an arbitration-eligible player like Davis or Yastrzemski and/or an opt-out from Manaea would make two large free agent pickups realistic even if the organization kept payroll around this year’s level. If they chose to stick with their traditional tack of shorter-term rotation adds, the likes of Kenta Maeda, Seth Lugo and Michael Lorenzen could offer some stability. Frankie Montas or Luis Severino would be traditional Giants-style reclamation adds.

They’ll likely need to add bullpen depth as well. Jakob Junis, John Brebbia and Scott Alexander are all headed to free agency. While none of that trio is a household name, they turned in a combined 172 2/3 innings of 4.12 ERA ball this past season. That’s acceptable middle relief volume that’ll need to be replaced.

The Giants have Camilo Doval in the ninth inning. Submariner Tyler Rogers is an effective setup option. Last winter’s signees Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson were fine in year one. The Giants have high-leverage options but could identify a middle relief target or two on a short-term free agent deal.

There are a lot of ways in which the offseason could go. Zaidi confirmed this week that he’s in the final season of his contract as he enters his sixth year leading baseball operations. There’s clearly increasing urgency to secure a star player and, more importantly, push a fine but unexceptional roster back to playoff contention. The first order of business is finding a new manager. Once the winter rolls around, the goal should be to add a franchise player.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Giants-centric chat on 10-04-23. Click here to view the transcript.

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