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MLBTR Poll: The Crowded NL Wild Card Race

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Despite Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds giving Atlanta (100%), Los Angeles (100%), Milwaukee (98.7%), Philadelphia (96.3%), and Chicago (78%) better than 75% odds of making the playoffs, play in the National League closed this evening with the NL Wild Card race looking as tight as ever thanks to the third and final spot.

Four teams sport winning percentages of .511, putting all of them in an effective tie for the third Wild Card spot behind the Phillies and Cubs. With less than a month to go in the schedule, it’s increasingly likely that only one of Arizona, Cincinnati, Miami, and San Francisco will join the aforementioned five clubs in the postseason this year. Let’s take a look at each of those four clubs, as things stand for them headed into the stretch run:

San Francisco Giants, 70-67 (48.9% playoff odds)

The Giants established themselves as contenders back in June with a fantastic 18-8 record that month and have managed to stay within spitting distance of a playoff spot ever since. Unfortunately for San Francisco, that excellent June is the last month the club posted a winning record. The club has gone just 24-31 since the beginning of July, with their playoff odds dropping from 69.2% down to 47.8% during that stretch. Injuries to key players like Michael Conforto and Anthony DeSclafani have left the club playing at less than full strength, but a bigger problem for the club is the rapidly declining offense: since July 1, the club’s 77 wRC+ is the second worst figure in the majors ahead of only the Rockies.

On the other hand, the club sports a strong if unconventional pitching staff highlighted by ace Logan Webb, veteran Alex Cobb, rookie Kyle Harrison, and closer Camilo Doval that is further bolstered by the excellent defense provided by rookie catcher Patrick Bailey. With that solid run prevention group, it’s easy to see how the Giants could make the playoffs if key offensive contributors like Joc Pederson, Lamonte Wade Jr. and Thairo Estrada can return to the success they showed earlier in the season. Outside of seven games against the Dodgers, San Francisco’s remaining schedule is fairly soft, which should help them in their pursuit of the final NL playoff spot.

Arizona Diamondbacks, 70-67 (33.3% playoff odds)

A surprise early season contender, the Diamondbacks dominated the NL West throughout the first half, holding sole possession of first place in their division as late into the season as July 8 thanks to a strong offensive core of Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker along with a strong pair of starters at the top of their rotation in righties Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Unfortunately for Arizona, their hold on the division lead would vanish over the next month as the club posted a 5-21 record over their next 26 games that was nothing short of disastrous. Despite the trade deadline coming directly in the middle of that awful stretch, Arizona’s front office added outfielder Tommy Pham and closer Paul Sewald to the floundering club, and the team has responded by going 13-7 since their skid came to an end.

With all of the club’s key players healthy headed into the stretch run, the Diamondbacks are perhaps the biggest question mark in this race. Was their brutal month of play, where they looked like one of the worst teams in baseball, simply a fluke? Or was it the beginning of the end for an underdog team projected for a 78-84 record when the season began? With 12 of their final 25 games coming against teams with a record of .500 or better, Arizona won’t have a particularly easy schedule to make use of as they try to secure their first playoff berth since 2017.

Miami Marlins, 70-67 (26.5% playoff odds)

The Marlins’ 2023 campaign has been a strange one. Earlier in the year, the club was carried by the bats of Luis Arraez and Jorge Soler and a historic record in one-run games. Much like the last two teams discussed, the months of July and August were difficult for Miami, as the club posted a record of just 19-32 while Soler (.697 OPS in July) and Arraez (.580 OPS in August) slumped badly. Fortunately, the club received offensive reinforcements at the trade deadline in the form of Jake Burger and Josh Bell, both of whom have posted strong results since joining the Marlins. What’s more, Alcantara has looked more like himself of late, with a 3.04 ERA in his last 77 innings of work.

While Soler hasn’t played in recent days due to injury, the offense is in a good place thanks to the contributions of Burger and Bell, while the rotation led by Alcantara, Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, and Edward Cabrera has been characteristically excellent. Perhaps Miami’s biggest obstacle in returning to the postseason for the first time since 2020 is the schedule: of the club’s final 25 games, the Marlins will face the Brewers, Dodgers, Braves and Phillies in sixteen of them.

Cincinnati Reds, 71-68 (16% playoff odds)

The Reds are perhaps the most surprising team of this quartet. The club’s success this season has been fueled almost entirely by a youth movement that began early in the season. While shortstop Elly De La Cruz hasn’t quite been the offensive force he was expected to be in his rookie season, infielder Matt McLain and starter Andrew Abbott have been nothing short of sensational. What’s more, other youngsters like Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Brandon Williamson have contributed in significant ways, to say nothing of contributions from more established players like TJ Friedl, Hunter Greene, Joey Votto, and Alexis Diaz.

While the Reds slumped badly to a 10-17 record in August, only six of the club’s final 23 games are against clubs with a record better than .500, given them plenty of opportunity to go on a run. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, between a rash of injuries and an outbreak of COVID-19, the Reds have a whopping 16 players on the injured list, including key players like Greene, McLain, Williamson, and Votto. With a pair of the club’s biggest bats and most reliable rotation arms out of commission for the foreseeable future, the Reds’ outlook is far hazier than it otherwise may have been.

———————

How does the readership of MLBTR think the race for the final NL Wild Card will shake out over the next month? Will one of the NL West clubs hold on to claim the spot that for much of the season they looked to be a shoo-in for? Will the Marlins overcome their brutal September schedule to emerge victorious? Or can the Reds navigate a wave of injuries to squeak into the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2013?

(poll link for app users)

Which Team Will Make The Playoffs?
San Francisco Giants 30.11% (1,027 votes)
Arizona Diamondbacks 24.89% (849 votes)
Cincinnati Reds 22.69% (774 votes)
Miami Marlins 12.61% (430 votes)
More than one; one of the other five will miss the playoffs. 9.70% (331 votes)
Total Votes: 3,411

Giants Reinstate Mitch Haniger, Designate Bryce Johnson

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The Giants announced they’ve reinstated Mitch Haniger from the 60-day injured list. Heliot Ramos was optioned to Triple-A Sacramento in a corresponding move. To clear space on the 40-man roster, San Francisco designated outfielder Bryce Johnson for assignment.

Haniger returns two and a half months after breaking his arm. An errant Jack Flaherty pitch resulted in a right forearm fracture that required surgery. It was another unfortunate break for Haniger, whose career has been littered with stops and starts (often on account of rather fluky injuries of that nature). He’d also begun the season on the shelf after suffering a Spring Training oblique strain. He has appeared in 40 games to this point in his first year as a Giant, hitting .230/.281/.372 over 160 plate appearances.

Slow start notwithstanding, his return is welcome for a San Francisco offense that has struggled of late. Haniger had been an above-average hitter throughout his time with the Mariners. He steps right into a tight race for a Wild Card spot, with SF half a game back of Arizona for the National League’s last spot. Haniger is hitting cleanup tonight and playing left field against Cincinnati southpaw Brandon Williamson.

Johnson, 27, will go on waivers in the next couple days. The switch-hitting outfielder has played in 41 games for the Giants over the last two seasons, hitting .148/.209/.213 through 67 plate appearances. He’s a good athlete and regarded as a quality defender who can cover all three positions on the grass, however.

The Sam Houston State product has hit .284/.360/.471 with 14 stolen bases in 50 Triple-A contests this year. He’s midway through his second minor league option season, so any claiming team could keep him in the minors for the foreseeable future. Johnson went unclaimed on waivers at the start of last offseason, so he’d have the right to test free agency if he clears again.

West Notes: Eovaldi, Ohtani, Giants, Silseth

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Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, who has been on the injured list for over a month thanks to a forearm strain, has recently been expected to rejoin the Texas rotation during their upcoming series against the Mets, which begins tomorrow. As noted by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, however, that won’t come to fruition after Eovaldi felt some discomfort in his side during a bullpen session on Thursday. The new plan is for Eovaldi to partake in another bullpen session on Tuesday before the club determines whether he’ll need a rehab assignment or can directly return to the club’s pitching staff.

Eovaldi’s continued absence is a serious blow to the Rangers, as the right-hander has posted a phenomenal 2.69 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 123 2/3 innings of work this season. By measure of ERA+, he’s been 61% better than league average when on the field this season. That sort of production is difficult to replace, and while deadline acquisitions Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery have done an admirable job with a combined 2.22 ERA across nine starts since joining the organization, the club has nonetheless posted a record of just 17-17 since Eovaldi went on the shelf, a mediocre performance that’s allowed the surging Mariners to catch them in the standings.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

  • While plenty of suitors for superstar Shohei Ohtani may have a renewed sense of caution regarding his impending free agency after it was announced that the two-way phenom is dealing with a UCL tear that will prevent him from taking the mound again this season, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle suggests that the Giants are not among those teams and will still aggressively pursue Ohtani. Shea asserts that the Giants have the financial muscle required to get a deal done, referencing big-money offers to Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last offseason that ultimately didn’t reach the finish line, while also suggesting the the club’s tendency to be cautious regarding pitcher healthy could be attractive for Ohtani as he looks to work his way back onto the major league mound.
  • Angels right-hander Chase Silseth exited last night’s game against the Mets following a scary moment where he was struck in the head by an errant throw from teammate Trey Cabbage. After initially falling to the ground after being struck, Silseth was helped off the field by team trainers. Fortunately, the worst appears to have been avoided, as ESPN notes that manager Phil Nevin told reporters that he “think(s) we avoided something serious, but with head injuries you always want to be cautious.” Silseth owns a 4.10 ERA (111 ERA+) in 48 1/3 innings of work while swinging between the rotation and bullpen for the Angels this season.

NL West Notes: Musgrove, Yaz, Brebbia, McLain, D’Backs

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After a three-week shutdown due to shoulder inflammation, Joe Musgrove has started a two-week throwing program as the first step towards a possible return from the injured list.  Musgrove tells Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune that he is aiming to be back with the Padres by late September and hopefully through the postseason, though he acknowledged that another shutdown is possible if the team is out of the pennant race.  Things are looking grim for the Padres at the moment, as they sit 6.5 games out of the last NL wild card position.

“There’s no need for me to be rushing and pushing things back if we’re out of this thing,” Musgrove said.  “But I have full confidence that we’re going to be in it, so these first two weeks are going to be important in just laying down the foundation work and being able to open up from there….It’s difficult knowing that there’s a chance I might not touch a mound again this year.  But every part of me mentally and physically is preparing to be able to get at least one more (start) in the regular season and then be strong for the playoffs.”

Between a broken toe suffered in Spring Training and his shoulder issue, it has been an injury-riddled year for the right-hander, as Musgrove has thrown only 97 1/3 innings.  His absences have been one of the reasons why San Diego is only on the fringes of contention, yet Musgrove has still looked like an ace when he has pitched, posting a 3.05 ERA over his 97 1/3 frames.  Acee writes that Musgrove will also probably undergo another MRI next week, to check up on the shoulder after the first few days of throwing.

Other items from around the NL West…

  • Mike Yastrzemski is closing in on a return from the injured list, as he recently took part in a live batting practice session and ran the bases yesterday.  Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (X link) writes that Yastrzemski is set for more baserunning work tomorrow, and he has been working in the outfield today.  Yastrzemski has been out with a hamstring strain since July 30, and seemed to be on the verge of a return two weeks ago before suffering another strain during rehab work.  Now, the outfielder could return to San Francisco’s lineup as early as Monday, when the Giants begin an important series with the Reds.
  • In another Giants injury update, John Brebbia threw that live BP session to Yastrzemski, and Slusser writes that the plan is for Brebbia to throw another simulated game Sunday with an eye towards soon beginning a minor league rehab assignment.  Brebbia suffered a Grade 2 lat strain back in June, and he has been sidelined beyond his initial recovery timeline of 4-8 weeks.  While he’ll need some time to ramp up during his rehab assignment, Brebbia’s return could be a big boost to a Giants club in need of pitching help.  Brebbia has posted strong numbers as a swingman over the last two seasons, including a 3.14 ERA over 28 2/3 innings in 2023.
  • Matt McLain’s instant success with the Reds creates an interesting sliding-doors moment for the Diamondbacks, who drafted McLain 25th overall in 2018 but didn’t reach an agreement to sign.  Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes that the two sides couldn’t manage the gap between McLain’s ask for a $3MM bonus and the Diamondbacks’ offer, which was the $2,636,400 slot price attached to the 25th pick.  Beyond the money, McLain told Piecoro that “I was pretty set on [playing in college].  I wanted to go to UCLA.  I think that if I would have signed in the minor leagues at that point, I would have always wondered what UCLA was like and what I had missed out on.  I don’t think it was necessarily the other way around.”  As it turned out, McLain had a standout career in college, and ended up picked by the Reds with the 17th overall pick in the 2021 draft, receiving a $4.625MM bonus that was well above slot price.

Giants Sign Cody Stashak To Minors Deal

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The Giants signed right-hander Cody Stashak to a minor league contract earlier this month, and Stashak made his debut appearance with Triple-A Sacramento yesterday.  The 29-year-old had been pitching for the Lancaster Barnstormers of the independent Atlantic League before the Giants purchased his contract.

A 13th-round pick for the Twins in the 2015 draft, Stashek made his big league debut in 2019 and saw some action for Minnesota in each of the next four seasons.  Over 72 total innings in the Show, Stashek posted a 4.13 ERA, an impressive 27.6% strikeout rate, and a very strong 4.7% walk rate.  That latter stat is all the more impressive considering Stashek’s rough 2021 season that saw him a 13.3% walk rate over 13 2/3 innings, leading to a 6.89 ERA.

Stashak was bouncing back pretty well from that 2021 disappointment when he hit another roadblock — a labrum tear in his throwing shoulder that required season-ending surgery in June 2022.  The rehab kept Stashak out of action for over a year, and he’d only made two appearances with Lancaster before the Giants came calling.  (Stashak initially became a free agent last November, when he elected to pursue the open market rather than accept an outright assignment to the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate.)

Now that Stashak is apparently healthy again, there’s no risk for the Giants in seeing what the righty do in an affiliated minor league setting, and there’s a chance Stashak could even figure into the club’s bullpen plans down the stretch.  San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has hit paydirt on more than a few under-the-radar pitching acquisitions during his tenure in the front office, and Stashak’s (albeit limited) track record of MLB success indicates that he might have something more to offer.

Athletics Could Share Oracle Park With Giants Prior To Las Vegas Move

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The Athletics’ move to Las Vegas isn’t official but there’s little doubt at this point that it will eventually come to fruition. One complicating detail is where the club will play from 2025 to 2027, since their lease at the Oakland Coliseum expires after 2024 and their new Vegas ballpark isn’t expected to be ready until 2028. In a recent conversation with Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, club president Dave Kaval mentioned that splitting Oracle Park with the Giants is one option, a possibility that John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle explored at greater length.

At this point, it’s not clear if such a plan is likely or even realistic, but it’s noteworthy that it is a path being considered. Some of the other options include staying in the Coliseum or playing out of Las Vegas Ballpark in the Summerlin South region of Las Vegas, the home of the Las Vegas Aviators, the Triple-A affiliate of the A’s.

“It really comes down to the league and the (players) union and their decision to what makes the most sense,” Kaval said to Akers. “We’re kind of deferring to them on that. We’re providing all the necessary information that they need. But in the end, we’re going to take direction from the league in the interim.”

Despite that deflection, there are reasons why the A’s might want to play their home games in San Francisco for a few years. As Shea points out, the A’s would continue to receive payouts from their regional sports network contract as long as they remain in the Bay Area. Their 25-year deal with NBC Sports California runs through 2033 and has an annual value close to $60MM. Moving the club out of the region, such as to the Aviators’ home ballpark, would mean leaving that money on the table.

Whether the Giants would be open to such an arrangement is another matter. Shea’s report indicates that the club wouldn’t be willing to have the A’s play more than 30-40 of their 81 home games at the facility, since taking on more than that would interfere with bookings for concerts, meetings, receptions and other activities when the Giants are on the road. There’s also the complication of adding a third clubhouse, as Shea reports the baseball operations staff wouldn’t want to constantly swap out all of the Giants’ gear for Athletics’ gear in the home clubhouse. But those complications aside, it would be a chance for the Giants to generate some extra revenue for a few years by charging the A’s rent. Shea adds that the Giants likely wouldn’t be keen on having Athletics’ tickets be cheaper than Giants’ games and thus undercut themselves on the market, meaning the pricing would have to be similar.

But the other options also have drawbacks. Staying in the Coliseum is complicated by the fact that the relationship between the A’s and Oakland has clearly become frosty in the wake of recent events. Moving to the Triple-A ballpark in Nevada also has complications, beyond losing the TV money. The ballpark has a capacity of just 10,000, limiting gate revenues, and doesn’t have a roof to help deal with the extreme heat of the summer.

Shea floats the possibility of playing in Summerlin to start the season before moving to San Francisco for the warmer months. That would allow them to tick all the boxes of sticking in the Bay Area and collecting the TV money, avoiding the peak Nevada heat and allowing the Giants to still rent out the venue for non-baseball events. However, that solution seems speculative and there’s nothing to indicate that’s a feasible option at the moment.

Earlier this week, owner John Fisher told Akers that the club has officially filed for relocation with MLB. They need 75% of ownership groups to sign off on the move, a vote that has not yet been scheduled, but it’s largely seen as a rubber stamp at this point. The club’s interim home is a significant unknown in the process, with the temporary relocation to San Francisco an intriguing possibility.

Giants Place Michael Conforto On IL, Outright Johan Camargo

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The Giants have placed Michael Conforto on the 10-day injured list with a strained left hamstring. Heliot Ramos is up to take his active roster spot. San Francisco also announced that infielder Johan Camargo has cleared outright waivers.

Conforto’s strain is of the Grade 2 variety, the team informed reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). That’s of moderate severity and seems likely to keep him out beyond the requisite week and a half. San Francisco didn’t specify a timetable. Royals outfielder Kyle Isbel missed roughly six weeks when he suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain earlier in the season. That’s not a guarantee Conforto’s absence will be the same but suggests he’s likely at least in for a multi-week absence.

The injury halts a strong recent run for Conforto, who has been one of the best hitters in a struggling San Francisco lineup. He’s hitting .300/.400/.433 going back to the start of August. His first season in the Bay Area has been up-and-down overall.

In 426 plate appearances, the longtime Met owns a .251/.343/.405 line with 15 home runs. That’s above-average but not overwhelming offensive output. When paired with slightly below-average defensive marks in the corner outfield, Conforto’s season looks quite similar to his final year in Queens. By tallying 350 trips to the plate, he vested the right to opt out of his $18MM salary for next season. That’s a borderline call if he’s healthy. An extended absence could increase the odds he returns.

The Giants are running with Joc Pederson, Wade Meckler and Luis Matos as their outfield tonight against Braves ace Spencer Strider. Righty-swinging Austin Slater is on hand as a platoon complement, while the former first-round pick Ramos fills out the bench.

As for Camargo, the veteran infielder was designated for assignment on Wednesday. He appeared in eight games between the time San Francisco selected his minor league contract and DFA him after signing Paul DeJong. Camargo collected four hits (all singles) and a walk in 20 trips to the plate.

He’ll have the right to head back to free agency. Camargo only signed with the Giants 12 days ago but could explore other landing spots now that DeJong has jumped him on the depth chart. The switch-hitter owns a .260/.339/.466 line in 165 Triple-A plate appearances on the season — split between the affiliates of the Royals, Tigers and Giants.

Giants Designate Johan Camargo For Assignment

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The Giants announced that they have now officially signed shortstop Paul DeJong to their roster, a move that was reported yesterday. In a corresponding move, infielder Johan Camargo was designated for assignment.

Camargo, 29, was just added to the Giants’ roster last week for a bit of veteran infield depth. With players like Mark Mathias, Casey Schmitt and Brett Wisely all producing fairly uninspiring results this year, an established utility option like Camargo was a sensible gamble to take, even though his own results have been fairly tepid in recent seasons. He hit .222/.300/.222 in a small sample of 20 plate appearances over eight games for the Giants, lining up at shortstop and third base but now losing his roster spot.

Since Camargo was selected, the Giants lost their everyday shortstop when Brandon Crawford landed on the injured list due to a left forearm strain. Rather than trying to patch together that position with their various utility infielders, the club decided to take a chance on DeJong after he was released by the Blue Jays.

That’s a low-risk move for the Giants from a financial perspective as they can bring aboard DeJong for the prorated league minimum and see what happens. It’s certainly risky in terms of results, as DeJong has been struggling in recent years and had a really poor showing with the Jays after they acquired him from the Cardinals at the deadline. But the Giants aren’t really committed and can easily walk away if it doesn’t work out.

In taking a shot on DeJong, they are giving up on Camargo, who will have to be placed on waivers in the coming days. His tiny sample of big league work this year doesn’t provide other clubs much to evaluate, but he has a longer track record they could look at. He has a career batting line of 254/.313/.407 in 1,359 career plate appearances, translating to a wRC+ of 90. The best part of that was earlier in his career, as he hit .281/.343/.455 over 2017 and 2018 but just .219/.272/.344 since then. He’s been slotted into each infield position as well as the outfield corners. This year, he has signed three separate minor league deals with the Royals, Tigers and Giants. He hit .260/.339/.466 in 165 Triple-A plate appearances between those different organizations.

If any of the 29 other clubs around the league are interested in some veteran infield depth, they could grab Camargo off waivers or perhaps sign him to another minor league in the event he clears. He has a previous career outright and would therefore be able to reject another such assignment in favor of electing free agency. He won’t be able to reach five years of service time this year and could therefore be retained for 2024 via arbitration by any club willing to give him a roster spot.

Giants To Sign Paul DeJong To Major League Contract

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The Giants are signing shortstop Paul DeJong to a major league contract, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The shortstop was recently designated for assignment by the Blue Jays and his transactions tracker at MLB.com indicates he was released yesterday.

DeJong’s career has been on a downward slope in recent years, with his offensive production declining in each season since his 2017 rookie year. He hit .285/.325/.532 in his first campaign for a wRC+ of 123, indicating he was 23% above league average. The Cards then gave him a six-year, $26MM extension but watched him struggle more and more as time went on. His wRC+ dropped to 103 in 2018, then 101, 87, and 85 in the years after. In 2022, he spent a couple of months on optional assignment and only hit .157/.245/.286 in the majors for a wRC+ of just 55.

He seemed to have turned things around somewhat this year, having hit .233/.297/.412 through 81 games with the Cards. He was striking out in 28.4% of his plate appearances but had popped 13 home runs in that time. His 95 wRC+ indicated he was still a tad below average at the plate overall, but for a shortstop who’s considered an above-average defender, that was a serviceable showing.

With the Cardinals out of contention this year and DeJong in the final guaranteed year of that extension, he was a sensible trade candidate. The Jays found themselves with a sudden need at short just before the deadline when Bo Bichette landed on the IL with a knee injury. They sent minor league pitcher Matt Svanson to the Cards in order to get DeJong as an emergency fill-in for Bichette.

Unfortunately, switching the red bird on his jersey for a blue one coincided with an incredible swoon in his performance. He recorded just three hits in 44 plate appearances for the Jays, all singles, while striking out 18 times and not drawing any walks. When Bichette was reinstated from the injured list, the Jays could have optioned a less-experienced player like Santiago Espinal or Davis Schneider but instead decided to just move on from DeJong.

At the time of the trade, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that the Cardinals are covering half of DeJong’s remaining salary and the buyouts on two club options. DeJong’s salary is $9MM this year, which left about $3MM to be paid out at the time of the trade and $2MM now. After being released, any club could sign him and pay him just the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the other clubs pay.

It seems like the Giants will take that chance on another DeJong bounceback, which is a fairly logical move for them. Their regular shortstop, Brandon Crawford, just landed on the injured list over the weekend due to a left forearm strain. Thairo Estrada is also day-to-day after being hit by a pitch on the hand on Sunday. That leaves veteran utility man Johan Camargo and rookie Casey Schmitt as their healthiest middle infield options at the moment. Camargo has hit .220/.273/.345 since the start of 2019 while Schmitt is hitting .197/.249/.279 through his first 226 plate appearances.

Though DeJong may be inconsistent at the plate, it’s a sensible chance for the Giants to take. If he’s able to get back into decent form, he could certainly be an upgrade over their current options. By getting added to the roster prior to 11:59pm ET on August 31, DeJong will be eligible for the postseason roster as well. The Giants are currently 65-60 and in possession of the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

The club currently has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to add DeJong whenever this move becomes official. They will also need a spot for pitching prospect Kyle Harrison, who is reportedly going to be added and start tonight’s game, meaning some further roster moves are coming for the Giants.

Giants Promote Kyle Harrison

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August 22: The Giants have now made this official, selecting Harrison and reinstating righty Ryan Walker from the paternity list. To open active roster spots, right-hander Sean Hjelle and outfielder Heliot Ramos were optioned. To open a 40-man spot for Harrison, infielder Mark Mathias was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Mathias was placed on the injured list a week ago due to a right shoulder strain. He’ll now be ineligible to return until 60 days from August 14, which rules him out until the middle of October. Barring a lengthy postseason run by the Giants, it seems his season is over.

August 20, 3:58 pm: Giants manager Gabe Kapler confirmed to reporters, including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, that Harrison was poised to be promoted. He’ll start the Giants’ game against the Phillies in Philadelphia on Tuesday.

10:14 am: The Giants are calling up top pitching prospect Kyle Harrison, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (via X).  Earlier today, the Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly wrote that San Francisco was “strongly considering” promoting Harrison during an upcoming series with the Phillies, and Murray says that Harrison is being aimed to start Tuesday’s game.  San Francisco will need to make another transaction before then to create a 40-man roster spot for the left-hander.

The promotion makes for a nice late birthday gift for Harrison, who turned 22 on August 12.  It is quite possible that the southpaw would have already made his MLB debut if it wasn’t for a hamstring strain that put him on the injured list for almost all of July, but after pitching in three Triple-A games since his return from the minor league IL, Harrison has been deemed ready for his first taste of the Show.

It doesn’t seem as though Harrison will be taking on a full-fledged starter role, as Baggarly notes that Harrison might work in more of a piggyback capacity on Tuesday, perhaps not throwing more than 3-4 innings.  Harrison has had a limited workload for much of the minor league season, as he has topped the 80-pitch threshold only three times and has only once thrown as many as five innings in a single outing.

With this in mind, Harrison looks to become the latest member of a patchwork Giants rotation that has recently featured only two regular starters.  Beyond Logan Webb and Alex Cobb, a group led by Jakob Junis, Alex Wood, Sean Manaea, and Ross Stripling have made limited starts, piggyback outings, or have worked as bulk pitchers behind an opener.  This collection took a hit yesterday when Stripling was placed on the 15-day IL due to a back strain, and Sean Hjelle was recalled from Triple-A to work as a long reliever or bulk pitcher.

It’s not an ideal situation for a team fighting for a wild card berth, so there will be a bit of a bigger spotlight than usual on Harrison as he becomes a big leaguer.  However, Harrison has dealt with plenty of hype as his prospect stock has risen over the last few years, since being selected by the Giants in the third round of the 2020 draft.  In recent midseason updates to their prospect rankings, MLB Pipeline listed Harrison as the 20th-best prospect in the sport, while Baseball America slotted him 35th on their latest listing.

There’s no secret about Harrison’s biggest weak point, as he has a hefty 16.3% walk rate over 67 2/3 innings with Triple-A Sacramento this year.  This shaky control (and pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League) has contributed to Harrison’s 4.52 ERA, though he also has a tremendous 35.6% strikeout rate.

Both Pipeline and BA give Harrison a 70-grade for his fastball and a 60-grade for his slider, and he also has a good changeup that is still improving.  Two plus pitches and the possibility of a third has created plenty of buzz about Harrison as a possible front-of-the-rotation starter, though the big question is naturally whether or not Harrison can improve his control and command.  As Pipeline’s scouting report puts it, Harrison is “still learning to harness his enhanced stuff, though his ability to miss bats in the strike zone with all three of his offerings means that he doesn’t need to locate them with precision.”

However the Giants opt to manage Harrison’s workload among the rest of the pitchers, it seems likely that the club will limit him to less than 50 innings in the regular season, so he can retain his rookie eligibility for 2024.  As per the rules of the Prospect Promotion Incentive, the Giants can receive a bonus pick in the 2025 draft if Harrison earns a full year of MLB service time in 2024, and he either wins the NL Rookie of the Year award or has a top-three finish in NL Cy Young voting during any of his pre-arbitration seasons.  Harrison must be ranked as a top-100 prospect by at least two of MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, or ESPN.com in their pre-2024 lists to fully qualify as a PPI-eligible player, thought that seems like a foregone conclusion.

Beyond the 50-inning threshold, pitchers also have to have less than 46 days on a Major League roster to retain rookie eligibility.  That date on the 2023 league calendar passed last week, so it isn’t surprising that Harrison and other notable prospects like the Reds’ Noelvi Marte, the Cardinals’ Masyn Winn, and the Angels’ Nolan Schanuel have all been called up within the last few days alone.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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