Pitching Notes: Brash, Lugo, Red Sox, Raley
Matt Brash‘s debut in the majors resulted in a 4.44 ERA over 50 2/3 innings, with pronounced splits as a starter (7.65 ERA) and as a reliever (2.35), since returning from a minor league demotion in a relief role worked wonders for Brash’s effectiveness. Unsurprisingly, “Brash has generated a ton of [trade] interest after his rookie season,” Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times writes, “but it would take a lot” for the Mariners to consider moving the 24-year-old. If anything, the M’s have faith that Brash could still be part of a rotation, given the club’s plan to stretch him out for Spring Training.
Brash’s 14.9% walk rate was the third-highest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 50 innings pitched in 2022, and he also allowed a lot of hard contact. On the plus side, the hard-throwing Brash had an above-average 27.9% strikeout rate, and elite curveball spin to go along with excellent whiff and barrel rates. There’s a lot to like about a young pitcher who still has only 179 1/3 combined innings on his record at the Major and minor league levels, and rival teams are naturally seeing if the win-now Mariners might be open to moving a younger pitcher for a more established MLB-level player. Nothing can truly be ruled out given the aggressiveness of Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto, yet it’s probably likelier that one of Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen are dealt from the Mariners’ pitching mix.
More pitching-related items from around baseball….
- Back on November 14, The Athletic’s Will Sammon reported that the Mets weren’t one of the many teams who had checked in with free agent righty Seth Lugo. Almost two weeks later, the two sides still haven’t been in touch, and “the Mets do not view Lugo as a starter,” Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. Lugo is reportedly open to signing as either a starter or as a reliever, and at least some of the other suitors have some interest in Lugo’s potential as a rotation piece. Speculatively, this could translate to at least an incentive-heavy contract for Lugo, with more bonus money available if he ends up making more starts than relief appearances. It could be that the Mets simply don’t value Lugo at this price, and are ready to look elsewhere in their search for bullpen help.
- The Red Sox pursued left-hander Brooks Raley in free agency last year, and offered Raley a two-year deal worth roughly $8MM, according to The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier. Raley ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with the Rays, and then had a strong season for Boston’s division rival (Raley’s year included a 0.00 ERA over six innings against the Sox). Between missing out on Raley and the general lack of quality in Boston’s 2022 bullpen, Speier writes that the Red Sox “came to regret not pursuing relief help more aggressively,” and opines whether or not the team might put more emphasis on relievers this winter. Chaim Bloom hasn’t spent much on relief pitching in his first three offseasons as the Red Sox chief baseball officer, and thus far this winter, Speier notes that the Sox haven’t yet paid much attention to the relief market, with a larger (and understandable) focus on starting pitching and re-signing Xander Bogaerts.
Mariners, Phillies, Yankees, Explored Deadline Trade Involving Marco Gonzales, Joey Gallo
Prior to the August 2 trade deadline, the Mariners, Phillies, and Yankees had some negotiations about a potential three-team swap, according to The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish. Left-hander Marco Gonzales would’ve headed to Philadelphia and outfielder Joey Gallo “possibly” would’ve been dealt to the Mariners, though it isn’t known what player or players New York would’ve acquired in this proposed deal.
As it turned out, the Yankees instead moved Gallo to the Dodgers for pitching prospect Clayton Beeter, with Los Angeles absorbing the roughly $3.7MM remaining on Gallo’s 2022 salary at the time of the deadline. The Phillies added Noah Syndergaard to their rotation rather than Gonzales, who stayed put in the Pacific Northwest. Rather than move Gonzales or any other starters, the Mariners instead added to their rotation depth with a blockbuster trade to pry Luis Castillo away from the Reds.
Teams routinely discuss all manner of trades in the days and months prior to deadline day, and it isn’t known if this particular three-team deal (or even some permutation of a deal) was anywhere close to becoming a reality. However, this floated trade certainly carries plenty of “what if?” consideration given that the three connected teams all made deep playoff runs, with the Phillies in particular reaching the World Series. Also, given that Gallo is a free agent and Gonzales is still drawing trade interest, it’s worth wondering if those past summer trade talks could influence some moves yet to come this winter.
Let’s begin with Gallo, who struggled through a rough 2022 season but still had some value for a Mariners team that was looking for outfield depth. In the lead-up to the deadline, Julio Rodriguez was battling wrist problems and Mitch Haniger was still on the 60-day injured list recovering from a high ankle sprain. Utility options Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty were also banged up, and the M’s weren’t satisfied with what Jesse Winker or Jarred Kelenic were bringing to the table. As Divish noted both in this piece and back in July, the M’s were actually exploring trading either Winker or Kelenic.
The two remain trade candidates in the offseason, and the Mariners are still looking for outfield help in general. However, the M’s have already landed one new everyday corner outfielder in Teoscar Hernandez, and dealt Kyle Lewis to the Diamondbacks in another trade, so the Seattle outfield picture is quite different than it was back in July and early August. It isn’t out of the question that the M’s could still make a play to land Gallo, though he might be more of a backup plan if such higher-tier free agents (i.e. Brandon Nimmo, Andrew Benintendi) couldn’t be signed. Winker, Kelenic, and Taylor Trammell are all left-handed hitters, so it could also be possible Seattle would trade from this surplus before looking into signing Gallo.
Pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park might not be the ideal spot for a power-centric player like Gallo to rebuild his value, and the slugger has only a .190/275/.372 slash line over 153 plate appearances at T-Mobile as a visiting player. That said, Gallo had a 4.2 fWAR season as recently as 2021, and could regain some of his old form simply with another change of scenery after his lackluster showings in New York and Los Angeles.
It was an odd season for Gallo, who had some of the game’s best walk, hard-hit ball, and barrel rates. He also had a 39.8% strikeout rate (far and away the worst of any player with at least 400 plate appearances), as Gallo’s “three true outcomes” approach was carried to absurd extremes. Unfortunately for Gallo, the third outcome wasn’t quite as extreme, as he hit 19 homers in 401 PA and his .197 Isolated Power metric was well below the .283 career IP he posted from 2015-21.
Gallo struggled whether or not he faced defensive shifts in 2022, and he actually had a better wOBA against the shift than without facing shifts (.350 to .323) in 2021. That said, the new rules limiting the use of shifts might have at least some impact on improving Gallo’s numbers, given opposing teams regularly deployed the shift against Gallo over 90% of the time.
There has been a lot of speculation about whether or not Seattle could trade at least one of Gonzales or Chris Flexen this winter, since the M’s have been connected to Kodai Senga and Matt Brash is also on hand as a potential fifth starter. The rest of the rotation is set, with Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby forming an impressive quartet of arms. Gonzales (who turns 31 in February) is over two years older than Flexen, and is more expensive — Gonzales is owed $6.5MM in 2023 and $12MM in 2024, while Flexen is only under contract through the 2023 season on an $8MM salary.
Given Gonzales’ longer-term contract, the Phillies seemingly had interest in the left-hander as more than just a rental player, so it would stand to reason that he might still be on their radar heading into 2023. With Syndergaard, Zach Eflin, and Kyle Gibson hitting free agency, the Phillies could use a durable veteran like Gonzales to reinforce the back end of their rotation.
Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are Philadelphia’s two aces, Ranger Suarez has emerged as a solid starter, and the inexperienced Bailey Falter and Michael Plassmeyer are penciled into the final two rotation spots at the moment. Top prospects Andrew Painter and Mick Abel could both enter the Major League picture before 2023 is out, but with the Phillies in clear win-now mode, relying on Falter, Plassmeyer, Painter, and Abel for as many as two rotation spots probably isn’t ideal. It wouldn’t even be a shock to see the Phils acquire one big-ticket arm to join Nola and Wheeler at the front of the rotation, and then a more moderately-priced hurler like Gonzales as a fifth starter.
Mariners Have Checked In On Andrew Benintendi, Brandon Nimmo
The Mariners swung an early trade this month, acquiring outfielder Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays, but they may not be done adding outfielders. According to Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, the team has checked in on top outfield free agents Andrew Benintendi and Brandon Nimmo. It comes after president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told reporters he was open to bringing in another outfielder.
Seattle currently has Julio Rodriguez and Hernandez locked into center and right field respectively, but left field could be open. Jesse Winker has played poor defense in left and struggled at the plate last season, and there’s been some reports that the Mariners could be open to moving him. Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell have both struggled in the big leagues, but they’re also former top prospects who are young enough to turn things around. Yet it’s clear this Mariners team is in win-now mode, so wouldn’t be surprising to see them pursue upgrades.
Nimmo seems less likely than Benintendi. Outside of Aaron Judge, he’s the clear top outfield free agent after an outstanding platform year that saw him post a 134 wRC+ and amass 5.4 fWAR. MLBTR predicted him to earn a five-year, $110MM deal this winter. With Rodriguez entrenched in center, Seattle could theoretically shift Nimmo to left, but there’s a lack of quality center field options available in free agency and a number of teams who need upgrades there. Given the price tag attached and the level of interest across the league, it seems unlikely Seattle would win a bidding war against teams operating with a bit more urgency at the position.
Benintendi doesn’t possess the upside of Nimmo, but still represents a quality option. His strong contact approach could make him a strong fit to leadoff ahead of Rodriguez, Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez and the other Seattle power hitters. Between the Royals and Yankees in 2022, he posted a .304/.373/.399 line with five home runs while providing solid defense in left. He’d also come a lot cheaper than Nimmo, as MLBTR predicted him to land a four-year, $54MM contract.
While Benintendi and Nimmo are the two reported names, a number of other options would also make sense, including a reunion with Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto or Cody Bellinger, not to mention a host of trade possibilities. Any addition could see Kelenic and Trammell floated in trade discussions. They’d be selling low on both, but teams would surely be interested in acquiring either to try and tap into the potential that made them both top outfield prospects in all of baseball.
Mariners Open To Adding Another Outfielder
The Mariners have already taken steps to reshuffle their outfield in the offseason’s early going. They landed two-time Silver Slugger award winner Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays for high-leverage reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko, then shipped out former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis for catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel.
More changes could be on the horizon, as president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto informed reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) the team was open to bringing in another outfielder. The Seattle baseball ops leader unsurprisingly didn’t tip his hand as to specific targets but suggested the club was content to wait things out and identify the right fit.
“We do have more than one target,” Dipoto told reporters. “There are a handful of players that fit us that we feel good about especially as it pertains to outfielders. We feel like there’s still a market that is more robust. And if we’re just patient, we’re going to find the player that suits our roster the best.”
That doesn’t sound like a declaration the M’s are planning a run at top free agent Aaron Judge, and defending Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez reduces the urgency to go after center fielder Brandon Nimmo. The Mariners could theoretically pursue Nimmo with an eye towards pushing him to the corner opposite Hernández, but there are plenty of other teams with direct needs in center field. With the bidding for the former Met likely to push over nine figures (and cost the signing team a draft choice), the next tier down seems more plausible for Dipoto and his staff.
Among that group is Mitch Haniger, who’s a free agent after six seasons in Seattle. The M’s opted not to tag with him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, clearly unwilling to commit him a salary approaching $20MM for next year. A multi-year deal at a lower annual term still seems a possibility, and general manager Justin Hollander told Divish and others the club remains in contact with Haniger’s representatives at Apex Baseball.
Other free agent possibilities include Andrew Benintendi, Jurickson Profar, Cody Bellinger and Washington native Michael Conforto, who’s looking to reestablish himself as a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter after a season lost to shoulder surgery. Bellinger and Conforto figure to land shorter-term, bounceback deals while Benintendi and Profar are virtually certain to land multi-year commitments. Dipoto and his staff are among the most aggressive in scouring the trade market as well, and a number of corner bats could plausibly be discussed. Anthony Santander, Alex Verdugo, Max Kepler and Jake McCarthy are among the players who’ve been mentioned as at least speculative trade candidates this offseason. Bryan Reynolds and Randy Arozarena are less likely to move — particularly Reynolds, whom the Pirates have been reluctant to deal for years — but are sure to draw calls from other teams based on their multiple seasons of arbitration control and consistently strong performances.
The Mariners are firmly in win-now mode after a second straight 90-win season that snapped their 21-year playoff drought. Dipoto, Hollander and company have been and will continue to be aggressive in building around their excellent young core, but it’s worth noting they’re not devoid of in-house options who could play their way into a regular role alongside Hernández and Rodríguez.
Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell haven’t found much success at the MLB level, but they’re each former top prospects who are still in their mid-20’s and coming off quality performances in Triple-A. Dipoto name-checked both players, as well as prospect Cade Marlowe, as internal candidates to take the next step. The M’s could entertain dealing Kelenic or Trammell for a lower-upside but more stable veteran bat as well, and Divish reports Seattle “shopped Kelenic extensively” at last summer’s trade deadline.
There’s also the presence of Jesse Winker, who was acquired last spring in the deal that saw Seattle assume the final three years of the Eugenio Suárez contract. Winker was the headliner of the trade from the M’s perspective, but Suárez surprisingly outperformed him in their first season in the Pacific Northwest. Under contract for $8.25MM in his final year of club control, Winker won’t have immense trade appeal coming off a .219/.344/.344 showing.
The M’s could elect to hold him and hope for better results, but they’ve reportedly floated his name early this offseason. Winker played dreadful defense in left field, and Divish has previously suggested Winker’s lack of improvement on that side of the ball played a role in him falling into some disfavor in the Seattle clubhouse. At his best, the left-handed hitter has shown he’s capable of impact offensive production against righty pitching, but the front office will have to decide whether pairing an outside addition with a change of scenery for Winker is a better fit heading into 2023.
Free Agent Notes: Bellinger, Turner, Longoria
Despite being non-tendered by the Dodgers on Friday, Cody Bellinger has had no shortage of potential suitors, reports The Athletic’s Jim Bowden (Twitter link). Bowden adds that Bellinger had calls from at least five teams “within an hour of him being non-tendered” and that “several more have called since.”
Since slashing an impressive .305/.406/.629 with 47 homers in 2019, Bellinger has had a steep decline. Over the last two seasons, the former MVP has struggled to a .198/.256/.355 line with a high 27.1% strikeout rate and below-average 7.7% walk rate. As noted by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco, Bellinger suffered a right shoulder injury celebrating during the 2020 NLCS, followed by unrelated leg and rib issues that seemingly zapped his offensive production.
Nevertheless, as Bellinger’s offensive production declined, he has taken on more of a defensive role. Reaching the majors as a first baseman, Bellinger has since transitioned to a full-time role in center field and has been rated favorably by both Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast. Without substantial offensive production over the past couple of years, Bellinger will likely earn less than the $18.1MM projected via arbitration by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, but will almost surely remain on a Major League roster.
Elsewhere in the League:
- In addition to the Mariners‘ interest in Gleyber Torres and Kolten Wong, the club has also checked in on Trea Turner and “all the other free agent middle infielders,” per Bowden. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has previously stated that the organization would prefer to land a shortstop that would like to play second base, and that J.P. Crawford is the Mariners’ shortstop. While Torres and Wong are both primary second basemen, Turner has limited experience at the position, having played only 436 2/3 innings at second since 2017. Furthermore, all of those innings were in 2021 after a mid-season trade to the Dodgers, who already had Corey Seager. Perhaps more importantly, shortstops are traditionally paid more than second basemen. MLBTR predicts Turner to receive an eight-year, $268MM contract, which would smash the record for the highest AAV contract for a second baseman.
- 15-year veteran Evan Longoria has adjusted his free agent wishes, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post reporting that Longoria, “hopes to play one or two more years and is open to any competitive team.” Bob Nightengale of USA Today had previously reported that Longoria was only considering the Giants, Rays, and Diamondbacks as potential free agent landing spots. Longoria would be a nice addition to any contending team, with the 37-year-old hitting a solid .252/.333/.466 with 27 homers since the start of the 2021 season. However, injuries have limited Longoria to 589 PA and 170 games over the past two seasons.
Mariners Interested In Gleyber Torres
The Mariners have interest in Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. It isn’t known if the two sides are particularly close on any sort of trade, though Sherman theorizes that the M’s could potentially offer the Yankee some bullpen help in return — akin to Seattle’s deal for Teoscar Hernandez earlier this week.
Second base is an area of need for the Mariners, and Milwaukee’s Kolten Wong is another name reportedly on Seattle’s trade radar. Acquiring a second baseman would allow the Mariners to keep J.P. Crawford at shortstop, which president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said is the team’s preferred scenario for 2023 and beyond. This even extends to this winter’s shortstop market, as Dipoto is hopeful of finding a top-tier shortstop who could be willing to move to the other middle infield position to accommodate Crawford. Trading for a player like Torres would allow the M’s to sidestep the free agent shortstop market altogether, and perhaps save some payroll space to address other needs.
Torres is a former shortstop himself, as the Yankees’ ill-fated attempt to use Torres as the everyday shortstop resulted in some lackluster defensive numbers. A greatly improved team defense was a big part of New York’s success in 2022, and Torres was part of that effort at second base, in the eyes of the Defensive Runs Saved (+9) and UZR/150 (+4.8) metrics. The Outs Above Average metric wasn’t as kind with only a -1 rating, yet there is certainly no doubt Torres has more defensive value at the keystone than at shortstop.
How Torres’ glovework might translate to the 2023 season is an open question, given the incoming rules limiting defensive shifts. Still, the Mariners have confidence in Crawford’s ability as an elite (when healthy) defensive shortstop, and he could potentially make up for some or any struggles Torres might have under the new rules. It could be that Seattle also thinks Torres’ bat can make up for any shortcomings in the field.
Torres hit .257/.310/.451 with 24 home runs over 572 plate appearances last season, resulting in a 115 wRC+. It was a solid bounce-back from Torres’ 94 wRC+ in 2021, as there was some thought that the defensive change would also help Torre get more focused at the plate. Torres hit for a lot more power and made much more hard contact in 2022 than in 2021, though his strikeout and walk rates actually decreased to below-average numbers from the previous season. That said, there has always been some variance in Torres’ K% and BB% rates, even dating back to his best seasons (2018 and 2019), whereas 2022 marked the first time Torres’ hard-hit ball percentage topped the league average.
On the financial side, Torres is arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season, and is projected to earn $9.8MM this winter in his third trip through the arb process. As a Super Two player, Torres has four years of arbitration eligibility instead of the usual three, and his projected 2023 salary represents another notable raise from his $6.25MM figure in 2022. While the Yankees are one of baseball’s biggest spenders, that doesn’t mean they’re necessarily willing to keep meeting this escalating cost, especially if they have any doubts that Torres’ production will continue to merit this price tag.
As well, New York has some intriguing cheaper options coming up from the farm system. Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza each made their MLB debuts last season, and star prospect Anthony Volpe is expected to get his first taste of the majors in 2023. Sherman writes that “the Yankees let executives at the GM meetings know they were open for business with their middle infielders,” meaning that both Torres and Isiah Kiner-Falefa could be dangled in order to both upgrade at other positions and to create some lineup space for the youngsters. The Yankees avoided arbitration with Kiner-Falefa yesterday, agreeing to a one-year, $6MM deal for the 2023 campaign.
There is enough turnover potential that Sherman “would be shocked if at least one [of Torres or Kiner-Falefa] was not moved” before Opening Day. Other than the newly re-signed Anthony Rizzo at first base, there’s a lot of potential flux around New York’s infield, given that DJ LeMahieu is still figuring out the best course of action to treat the toe injuries that hampered him last season. If surgery does become necessary for LeMahieu, that might make the Yankees less open to moving a proven contributor like Torres. The Yankees seem ready to open up the third base position by moving Josh Donaldson, yet the combination of Donaldson’s offensive decline, his poor clubhouse reputation, and his big contract (at least $29MM remaining through 2023) might mean the Yankees could just end up releasing Donaldson if they just want to on move on from the former AL MVP.
American League Non-Tenders: 11/18/22
The deadline to tender contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. Here’s a rundown of the players on American League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arb-eligible players last month. Onto the transactions…
Latest Transactions
- The Mariners announced that they have non-tendered three players: catchers Brian O’Keefe and Luis Torrens, as well as righty Luke Weaver. Weaver was just claimed off waivers from the Royals a few weeks ago but will now become a free agent.
- The White Sox announced three non-tenders: outfielders Adam Engel and Mark Payton, as well as infielder Danny Mendick. Engel is generally considered a strong defensive outfielder but he struggled at the plate in 2022. Mendick played all over the diamond while hitting .289/.343/.443 for a wRC+ of 125.
- The Guardians announced they have non-tendered lefty Anthony Gose and catcher Luke Maile. Gose was designated for assignment earlier in the week. Maile got into 76 games hit at a below-average level with roughly average defensive marks.
- The Angels announced four non-tenders: lefties Jhonathan Diaz and Rob Zastryzny, as well as righties Touki Toussaint and Nash Walters. The latter three names were designated for assignment a few days ago.
- The Rays have non-tendered Ryan Yarbrough, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tampa designated him for assignment earlier in the week.
- The Blue Jays announced that they have non-tendered outfielders Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer, as well as infielder Vinny Capra. The two former names were designated for assignment a few days ago.
Earlier Moves
- The Athletics announced that they did not tender contracts to three players: right-hander Deolis Guerra, left-hander Jared Koenig and infielder David MacKinnon. Guerra is the most seasoned of the trio, having made his MLB debut back in 2015 and made 136 appearances. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in April, missing the entire 2022 campaign and possibly some of 2023 as well.
- The Red Sox are non-tendering outfielder/first-baseman Franchy Cordero, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Cordero appeared in 84 games for the Red Sox this past season, but hit just .219/.300/.397 with eight home runs while grading out very poorly on defense. The Sox have also non-tendered infielder Yu Chang, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The versatile infielder began the year with the Guardians but subsequently went to the Pirates in a trade, then went to the Rays and Red Sox on waiver claims. Across those four teams, he hit .208/.289/.315 for a wRC+ of 78.
- The Astros will part ways with reliever Josh James, as Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports they’re expected to non-tender him tonight. He spent the entire 2022 campaign in the minors, and underwent flexor tendon surgery in October and is without a timetable to return.
- The Rangers announced that right-hander Nick Snyder has not been tendered a contract. He only has 4 2/3 innings of MLB experience over the past couple of seasons. He spent most of 2022 in Triple-A, posting a 4.97 ERA over 38 innings, though with a 30.9% strikeout rate.
- The Royals opted to non-tender lefty Jake Brentz and right-hander Nate Webb, the team announced. That’s no surprise, as both players were designated for assignment earlier this week. They lost their 40-man roster spots as a result, but the non-tender means Kansas City won’t need to run them through waivers before sending them directly to free agency. Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets that Kansas City is tendering contracts to the rest of their arbitration class, including Brad Keller and Amir Garrett — each of whom seemed to have a small chance of being cut loose after tough seasons.
Mariners, Diamondbacks Swap Kyle Lewis, Cooper Hummel
The Mariners and Diamondbacks have swapped young big leaguers, announcing agreement on a one-for-one deal moving outfielder/DH Kyle Lewis to Arizona. The Mariners bring back catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel in return.
Lewis is the more well-known of the players involved. Seattle’s first-round pick in 2016, he bounced back from an ACL tear in his right knee suffered during his first professional season to climb the minor league ranks. The Mercer University product made it to the big leagues late in the 2019 season, and he looked as if he’d cemented himself as a key piece of the organization the following year.
During the abbreviated 2020 campaign, Lewis appeared in 58 games and tallied 242 plate appearances. He connected on 11 home runs and walked in a fantastic 14% of his trips en route to a .262/.364/.437 line. That offensive production was 27 percentage points above league average, by measure of wRC+, and it earned him the American League Rookie of the Year award.
Few would’ve imagined Lewis would only spend two more years in Seattle coming off that season, but he’s rapidly fallen down the depth chart. That’s less due to performance than an unfortunate series of injuries in his right knee, which has proven consistently problematic. Lewis began the 2021 campaign on the injured list, and an April return proved brief. He went back on the shelf in early June, and the M’s subsequently announced he’d suffered a meniscus tear. He ended up missing the remainder of the season and wasn’t recovered in time for the start of this year.
Lewis opened the 2022 campaign back on the IL. He was reinstated on May 25, nearly a full calendar year since his previous MLB game. After a handful of games, he unfortunately suffered a concussion and spent another two months on the IL. Lewis returned in late July, played in 14 more games, then was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma. He spent the rest of the season there but had a solid showing, putting up a .245/.362/.517 line with 12 homers through 42 games there.
There’s obvious risk for the D-Backs in taking on a player who has appeared in just 54 MLB contests over the past two years. He’s never topped 58 big league games in a season and has only 130 career games and 526 plate appearances under his belt. Yet it’s similarly easy to see the appeal for general manager Mike Hazen and his group in rolling the dice on Lewis’ upside. During his lone healthy season, he showed the obvious power and plate discipline that made him such a well-regarded prospect. There’s a fair bit of swing-and-miss in his game, but he has a chance to be a middle-of-the-order caliber bat if healthy.
Lewis spent some time in center field as a minor leaguer and early in his big league career, but he was almost exclusively a designated hitter this past season. He’s capable of factoring into the corner outfield and could perhaps still moonlight up the middle if necessary, but the Diamondbacks aren’t going to rely on him in center field much — if at all. Corbin Carroll, Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas are all talented defenders, and Carroll and Varsho figure to get a particularly strong amount of playing time up the middle. Hazen has expressed a willingness to deal one of those players if it nets him help elsewhere on the roster, but Arizona’s depth of plus defenders should give them the chance to mostly keep Lewis off his feet as a DH.
Adding some right-handed pop was also a key offseason objective for Arizona, and Lewis could be a long-term righty power bat in the desert. He’s still just 27 years old and has two years and 146 days of major league service time. That qualifies him for early arbitration as a Super Two player, but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for just a $1.2MM salary. He’s arbitration eligible through 2026, and the early-career injuries have kept Lewis from building the kind of resume that’d be handsomely rewarded through that process thus far.
Lewis’ departure will be jarring for Mariners fans, but it looked increasingly likely Seattle could subtract from the corner outfield after acquiring Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays yesterday. As another right-handed hitting right fielder/DH, Hernández made Lewis an arguably superfluous presence on the roster. Julio Rodríguez has cemented himself as the franchise center fielder, and the M’s still have a number of internal options — Jesse Winker, Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Sam Haggerty and Dylan Moore — as left field possibilities. The M’s have reportedly floated Winker’s name in trade talks, but they could either look into a left field upgrade or rely on some of their younger options even if they send the former Red elsewhere.
In exchange for Lewis, they bring in a player with a bit more defensive flexibility. Hummel, 28 next month, was first drafted by the Brewers in 2016. Arizona acquired him at the 2021 trade deadline in a deal that sent veteran infielder Eduardo Escobar to Milwaukee. The right-handed hitter was sitting on a .254/.435/.508 line in Triple-A at the time, and the Snakes gave him his first big league chance this year.
Hummel scuffled over his first 66 MLB games, hitting just .176/.274/.307 with three homers in 201 plate appearances. He struck out in a huge 31.8% of his plate appearances during that time, but he walked at a strong 11.4% clip. Hummel also continued to hit well with Arizona’s top minor league affiliate, posting a .310/.423/.527 line in 33 games in Reno. In a bit more than 500 career plate appearances at the Triple-A level, the Oregon native has a .310/.429/.540 line with an incredible 16.7% walk rate.
On the defensive side of the ball, Hummel has split his time between catcher and the corner outfield. He got 14 MLB starts behind the dish and 17 apiece in left field and designated hitter. Prospect evaluators have never considered Hummel a likely everyday catcher, but the M’s don’t need him to be with Cal Raleigh as their franchise backstop. Hummel can factor in as an occasional catcher and corner outfield option off the bench, and he can still be optioned to the minor leagues in each of the next two years. He’s a flexible depth piece who has less than a full year of big league service. He won’t qualify for arbitration until at least after the 2024 season.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the D-Backs and Mariners were swapping Lewis and Hummel.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Mariners Have Shown Interest In Kolten Wong
Fresh off yesterday’s acquisition of Teoscar Hernandez, the Mariners are again looking to the trade market to solidify some areas of need. Seattle has reached out to the Brewers to inquire on the potential availability of second baseman Kolten Wong, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).
Wong is a natural target for the Mariners, given their lack of a clear starter at second base and a lineup that skews a bit right-handed. The Brewers picked up a $10MM club option on the two-time Gold Glove winner just last week, but Milwaukee’s massive arbitration class and mounting payroll opens the door for the trades of some players on notable salaries. While picking up Wong’s option shows that the team is certainly comfortable committing what was a net $8MM to him — the option had a $2MM buyout — Milwaukee also surely recognized that at one year and $10MM, Wong may also be a desirable trade commodity.
Should the Brewers ultimately trade Wong, they might not feel compelled to look outside the organization for an alternative. Luis Urias is currently slated to play third base in 2023, but he has ample experience at second and could appear there more regularly in the absence of Wong. Alternatively, former first-round pick Brice Turang played a full season in Triple-A at just 22 years of age and held his own against more seasoned competition, batting .286/.360/.412 (108 wRC+) with 13 home runs, 24 doubles, two triples, 34 steals (in 36 tries), a 10.8% walk rate and a 19.6% strikeout rate. He’s already on the 40-man roster and quite arguably ready for a look in the big leagues.
The 2022 season was an odd one for Wong — one of his best with the bat and perhaps his worst with the glove. The 32-year-old smacked a career-high 15 home runs and batted .251/.339/.430, adding 24 doubles, five triples and 17 steals (in 23 tries) along the way. The 2022 season marked a second straight year of improved power for Wong, who put the ball on the ground at a 47% clip during his eight-year tenure with the Cardinals but has dropped that to 42% as a member of the Brewers. Whether it’s been a conscious decision to elevate the ball more regularly or simply an organic development in his swing path, the uptick in power is noticeable. It’s come with a slight bump in his strikeouts, but Wong’s 17.7% rate in 2022 was still well shy of the league average.
On the defensive side of the game, however, the 2022 season was a bizarre and borderline nightmarish one for Wong. Typically one of the game’s best defenders at his position, Wong made a stunning 17 errors — more than he’d totaled in the three prior seasons combined. When his option was picked up, Wong told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak that his legs weren’t fully healthy in 2022, which he felt contributed to his surprising defensive shortcomings (Twitter links). Wong missed time in June with a calf strain that sent him to the injured list, and it’s certainly plausible that his legs cost him some of his typical defensive excellence.
Though he’s a natural fit for the Mariners, Wong is no lock to be traded and is but one of many options Seattle could pursue at the position. Old friend Jean Segura is the top second baseman on the market, and Brandon Drury is another potential free-agent option, although he played far more third base than second base in 2022. The Mariners could, for a second straight offseason, try to convince a premier shortstop to sign in Seattle and slide over to second base. Dipoto’s Mariners appear committed to keeping J.P. Crawford at shortstop, even on the heels of his own down season with the glove.
Orix Buffaloes To Post Masataka Yoshida
The Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are going to post outfielder Masataka Yoshida, according to a report from Yahoo Japan, making him eligible to explore opportunities with MLB clubs. (hat tip to JJ Cooper from Baseball America and Jason Coskrey on Twitter.) The Japanese-language link lists the Yankees, Mariners, and Blue Jays as those with interest.
Yoshida, 29, made his NPB debut with the Buffaloes in 2016 and has since established himself as a key contributor at the plate. In 2022, he played in 119 games, hitting 21 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .335/.447/.561. That level of production and Yoshida’s age should lead to him garnering plenty of interest from North American teams.
This year’s market for free agent outfielders isn’t huge in terms of quantity. MLBTR’s list of the top free agents featured Aaron Judge in the top spot and Brandon Nimmo at number nine. Those guys are both likely to receive nine-figure deals, but then there’s only a few guys capable of everyday jobs in the middle of the list. Joc Pederson accepted the qualifying offer to return to the Giants, leaving Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger and Jurickson Profar as some of the few mid-market options. Then there are some guys likely to require less cost but with injury risks, such as Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley.
Teams will likely have wide variance in how they evaluate Yoshida, but it’s unlikely he will earn a contract that rivals the top-market guys. Seiya Suzuki was another highly-touted slugger who was posted a year ago and he eventually signed with the Cubs for five years and $85MM. He was 27 years old at the time, two years younger than Yoshida is now. That likely makes it difficult for Yoshida to beat Suzuki’s guarantee, though it’s possible some team values him significantly higher than the Cubs valued Suzuki. For the teams that miss out on the top free agent outfielders, Yoshida should add an interesting new option for the next tier of the market.
The fact that the Blue Jays and Mariners are two of the teams listed as being interested in Yoshida is quite interesting, given that those two clubs swung a trade earlier today to send Teoscar Hernandez from Toronto to Seattle. That gives the Blue Jays a clear opening in their outfield mix that they could slot Yoshida into. They do have George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Whit Merrifield, though Merrifield took over as the everyday second baseman down the stretch and could play there again in 2023. They’ve already been connected to Nimmo since the departure of Hernandez but Yoshida could also make sense.
For the Mariners, they now have Hernandez and Julio Rodriguez taking up two spots in their outfield mix, with Jesse Winker, Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Sam Haggerty and Kyle Lewis on hand as options for a third spot. Winker has been mentioned as being available in trade discussions, but it would be a surprise to see the club fill out that last outfield position and block all of its young options from a path into the regular lineup.
For the Yankees, they have a clear need in the outfield with both Judge and Benintendi having reached free agency recently. They have Harrison Bader in place for center field but will likely be looking to add two outfielders before Opening Day. They have Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks on hand but Stanton has largely been a designated hitter for a while and can’t be counted on for everyday action in the outfield while Hicks is coming off a second straight disappointing year at the plate.
Once Yoshida is formally posted, there will be a 30-day window where MLB clubs can negotiate with his representatives. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Buffaloes, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Buffaloes a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If he does not reach an agreement with an MLB team, he will return to the Buffaloes for 2023.