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Cardinals Not Planning On September Promotion For Dylan Carlson

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While the Cardinals appear to be more excited than ever about top outfield prospect Dylan Carlson, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the club isn’t giving consideration to promoting him to the majors in the month of September.

As ever, it should be noted that plans can always change. The 20-year-old’s present capabilities are already known well to the Cards, so he’s not likely to change the situation by his play. But it’s possible an injury or other development at the MLB level could create a surprise need.

As Goold notes, Carlson does not need to be added to the 40-man roster in advance of the December Rule 5 draft, so putting him there now would constrain the club. It seems only a run of misfortune involving existing players, or a major change of heart, would create the circumstances for a Carlson promotion. But we have seen that sort of thing occur, as when the Nationals surprisingly promoted Victor Robles back in 2017.

Regardless of how things shake out late in 2019, Goold says that the Cardinals will allow Carlson a full shot to compete in camp next year for a significant role at the major-league level. Service-time considerations and other factors will obviously weigh into the decision; the 20-year-old likely has a high standard to clear to head north out of camp.

While it would still rate as a surprise to see Carlson on the Opening Day roster, particularly if he doesn’t end up seeing any big-league time this year, it seems the St. Louis org isn’t shying away from putting expectations and dangling opportunity in front of the highly regarded prospect. Carlson has already laid waste to upper-minors pitching this year, turning in a .281/.364/.518 batting line at Double-A (which isn’t a hitter-friendly stop on the circuit) and slashing .385/.439/.654 since arriving at Triple-A (good for a 164 wRC+ even in the offensively prolific Pacific Coast League).

As president of baseball operations John Mozeliak puts it, Carlson “does it all” and is a “very complete player.” While prospect evaluators haven’t really hyped Carlson as one of the top pre-MLB players in baseball, Mozeliak says Carlson’s showing this year at Double-A suggests he’s “truly an elite player.”

The focus now is obviously on the Cards’ efforts to win a division title. But it’s hard not to look ahead. The club has already undergone immense change in the outfield in recent years and figures to have more on the way. Marcell Ozuna will be a free agent. Dexter Fowler will be a significant part of the mix (barring a trade). Otherwise, there are a large number of possibilities — Jose Martinez, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill, Rangel Ravelo, Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, and others — but little in the way of clear answers.

It’s likely some players will end up in other organizations, whether that occurs over the offseason or in Spring Training. Keeping Carlson off of the 40-man will help preserve options. But his presence in the organization could ultimately allow the Cards to be more aggressive in parting with other young outfielders, perhaps opening the door to improvements in other areas of the roster.

NL Central Notes: Moose, Zobrist, Estrada, Cards

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The Brewers dropped a big contest but escaped an injury scare tonight, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy was among those to cover on Twitter. Infielder Mike Moustakas departed after being hit on the wrist while trying to make a play in the field. Fortunately, x-rays after the game were negative. Though he’s expected to take at least one day off, it seems Moustakas has avoided serious injury. That’s good news for a Milwaukee team that’s struggling to keep pace with the two leaders in the NL Central race.

About those two front-runners …

  • It seems the expectation remains that the Cubs will bring Ben Zobrist onto the active roster once rosters expand on September 1st, per Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. That’s still far from official, and Sullivan notes that the team still likely wants to give the veteran more reps before activating him. It remains a mystery just how this unusual situation will play out. The 38-year-old Zobrist is a treasured presence in the dugout but wasn’t in top form before taking personal leave earlier this year. Through a dozen rehab games — spread out to enable him stretches of time to be with his children — Zobrist is hitting .189/.333/.405.
  • Cubs prospect Jeremiah Estrada announced today that he underwent Tommy John surgery (h/t Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, via Twitter). The young righty had been in notable position on the Chicago prospect chart, in the evaluation of the Fangraphs prospect team. A recent over-slot sixth-rounder, Estrada missed all of 2018 and only threw 10 2/3 innings this year before going under the knife. It’s unlikely he’ll pitch competitively in the 2020 season, though there’s still plenty of time for the twenty-year-old to blossom.
  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch held an interesting chat with Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. that’s well worth a full read for fans of the club. Pressed on the club’s decisionmaking after three-straight seasons without a postseason appearance, DeWitt did not cede any ground. He rejected any view that the club went cheap this summer, saying the organization remains among the higher-payroll outfits in the league. As for the current front-office leadership group, DeWitt did not seem inclined at all to consider significant change in leadership. “There is always accountability,” he said. “But keep in mind, we’ve had a pretty nice run of success under the current regime with 11 consecutive winning seasons, and when we have missed the playoffs it has been by a very small number of games.” As things stand in the 2019 race, the Cards have a strong chance of breaking their string of playoff absences. But the pressure will increase significantly if that doesn’t come to pass.

Central Notes: Abreu, Gordon, Bader, Brusdar

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Although the White Sox and first baseman Jose Abreu have made their affinity for one another known on many occasions, the club reportedly won’t offer the pending free agent a contract extension this season. Nevertheless, Abreu once again made it clear Monday his mission is to re-sign with the White Sox, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times relays. Asked if he’s confident a new deal will come together, Abreu declared: “Of course. Like I said before, if the team doesn’t sign me, I’m going to sign myself here.” Chicago’s on its way to its 11th straight season without a playoff berth, and the club has never even finished .500 since Abreu joined the fray entering 2014. But the 32-year-old explained to Van Schouwen the team’s capable of contending as early as 2020, expressing confidence that “the front office is going to make the move that will be the right move for us to move forward and to get to that final phase of this process.”

  • As with Chicago and Abreu, there’s a great deal of fondness between the Royals and outfielder Alex Gordon. General manager Dayton Moore stated back in June he “couldn’t imagine” Gordon playing anywhere else. The soon-to-be 36-year-old took a similar tone over the weekend, telling Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports it’s KC or bust in 2020. “I’m not going to play anywhere else,” Gordon said. “If I play, it’s going to be for the Royals.” If Gordon does continue next season, he and the Royals will have to work out a new arrangement, as the team’s sure to decline its half of a $23MM mutual option in favor of a $4MM buyout.
  • The Cardinals will recall center fielder Harrison Bader from Triple-A Memphis on Tuesday and option outfielder Randy Arozarena, per Stu Durando and Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Manager Mike Shildt noted the Cardinals are “super proud” of Bader for the way he handled himself in the wake of his July 29 demotion. Bader had been a staple in St. Louis’ lineup for most of the year until the club sent him down, but he’s coming back as a result of a dominant offensive showing in the minors. Meanwhile, fellow Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill could start a rehab assignment with Memphis later in the week, according to Durando and Hummel. O’Neill has been on the IL since Aug. 3 with a left wrist strain.
  • High-end Twins pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol leveled up over the weekend, moving from Double-A Pensacola to Triple-A Rochester. The 20-year-old right-hander is now on the doorstep of the majors, but that doesn’t mean he’ll get there this season, GM Thad Levine told Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. On the subject of a possible late-2019 major league call-up for Graterol, Levine said: “That idea may have been a little overstated. We’re not going to force anything. We would only promote someone if we thought he could genuinely contribute, [and that decision] has certainly not been made.” Graterol’s capable of pumping triple-digit heat, which ideally will help make him a prominent piece of the Twins’ bullpen into the fall.

Injury Notes: Kluber, Gallo, Dietrich, Casali, Robinson

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After just one inning of work in a rehab start on Sunday, Corey Kluber was removed from the game due to left abdominal tightness.  (Cleveland.com’s Joe Noga was among those to report the news.)  Kluber is expected to receive further tests on Monday, though the early word is that Kluber was simply removed as a precaution.  While the Indians and their fans won’t fully exhale until those tests come back clean, it’s at least some measure of good news that Kluber didn’t have a setback involving his forearm, which was fractured back on May 1.  Sunday’s start could potentially have served as Kluber’s final rehab outing before being activated from the injured list, and now it seems as if he’ll likely have to get one more minor league start under his belt before the Tribe can be fully prepared to bring him back to the 25-man roster.

Some more on injury situations from around baseball…

  • Rangers slugger Joey Gallo is targeting a mid-September return from hamate bone surgery, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan writes.  The procedure back on July 25 was expected to keep Gallo out for four-to-six weeks, though since he only just started taking light swings off a tee, his recovery will be at the long end of that projected timeline.  “I don’t want any setbacks, but I think I’m going to be able to play before the season is over.  That’s the hope,” Gallo said.
  • Two injured Reds are working their way back to the club, as manager David Bell told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that Derek Dietrich will begin a Triple-A rehab assignment on Monday, while catcher Curt Casali starts a rehab assignment of his own on Tuesday.  Both players could be back in time for the Reds’ series against the Pirates that begins on Friday.  Dietrich hit the IL due to left shoulder inflammation on August 5, while this will actually be Casali’s second rehab stint since first being placed on the IL on July 18 with a right knee sprain.  Casali’s previous assignment was halted after two games due to soreness in his left hamstring.
  • Cardinals utilityman Drew Robinson recently underwent a season-ending, “progressive” version of Tommy John surgery on his left elbow, manager Mike Shildt told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters.  The surgery was only a partial version of the normal Tommy John procedure and it was on Robinson’s non-throwing arm, so Shildt believes Robinson will be ready for Spring Training.  Acquired in the trade that sent Patrick Wisdom to the Rangers last December, Robinson appeared in five MLB games for the Cardinals and hit .265/.385/.423 over 234 PA for Triple-A Memphis this season before hitting the injured list on June 24.  Robinson has some very solid minor league numbers over his ten pro seasons, though he hasn’t hit much over 253 Major League plate appearances with Texas and St. Louis from 2016-18.

NL Notes: Carlson, Hader, Hosmer, Ahmed

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The Cardinals have promoted top outfield prospect Dylan Carlson to Triple-A, per an announcement from the club’s top affiliate. That puts the 20-year-old switch-hitter right on the doorstep of the big leagues. Carlson turned in a strong .281/.364/.518 batting line with 21 long balls and 18 steals over 483 Double-A plate appearances. It’s not clear whether the club has any thought of a late-2019 MLB promotion for the talented youngster.

More from the National League …

  • MLB.com’s Mike Petriello provides an interesting examination of the feast-or-famine experience hitters have had this year against Brewers lefty relief ace Josh Hader. It really is a curious situation, as Petriello explains in full detail. In essence: Hader is harder to make contact against than anyone in baseball. But when batters have put bat to ball this year, they’ve tended to make loud sounds and often ended up trotting the bases. Petriello identifies a few potential causes/fixes for the Milwaukee southpaw. In particular, it seems Hader can work on reducing first-pitch predictability and tightening up his command at times. You’ll certainly want to read the entire piece to appreciate it.
  • As he continues to produce middling overall offensive numbers, Padres first baseman Eric Hosmer is showing increasingly yawning platoon splits, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes. It’s simple enough, in theory, to spell him against southpaws. But that’s tough to do given the club’s mammoth investment in Hosmer. Skipper Andy Green made clear it’s not an immediate possibility. That makes sense, as the Friars have to hope that Hosmer turns a corner and can afford to give him the leash to work things out. But if it comes down to it, the extreme platoon situation actually ought to make it easier in the long run to deal with a contract that has simply not panned out.
  • Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed has long been lauded for his superlative glovework, but has mostly remained an obscure player. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic highlights the growing value of the 29-year-old, who is now finally marrying his excellent defensive performance with much-improved hitting. With torrid recent streak, Ahmed has reached league-average offensive levels for the season as a whole. Piecoro provides an excellent look at Ahmed’s thus-far successful efforts to avoid chasing pitches out of the zone and make better contact when he does offer. Ahmed, who is earning $3.663MM this season, is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility.

NL Notes: D-Backs/Greinke, Keller/Rodriguez, Cards, Nats

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Zach Buchanan of The Athletic recently took an interesting look at the Diamondbacks’ recently concluded experience with big-money starter Zack Greinke. While you’ll want to read the entire piece (subscription link), a few comments from team president Derrick Hall are worth highlighting here in particular. “If you’re going to make that kind of commitment, you have to be sure that it’s going to push you over the top,” said Hall of the Greinke signing. “That was clearly a lesson learned.” Though the contract didn’t exactly sink the club — Greinke generally performed to his pay grade and the Snakes were able to get some value out of the tail end — it did make it difficult for the organization to put together a complete roster that was truly competitive and surely shaped the team’s decisionmaking when it came to retaining (or not) core talent. Hall did not rule out any major future splashes, but did suggest a somewhat different strategy is likelier going forward. The Arizona org will “probably prefer spreading and balancing out those salaries more evenly,” he says, thus “making sure you have that flexibility so that, when the time comes, if you want to add more significantly, you can.”

Let’s catch up on a few notes from around the National League …

  • The Pirates welcomed prized righty Mitch Keller back to the big leagues yesterday. It was a long-anticipated return after a rough showing in his initial promotion earlier this year. Keller was effective through five innings, allowing one earned run on five hits while recording four strikeouts and a pair of walks. He is now in line to get a full trial down the stretch. Before the game, the team created roster space by placing reliever Richard Rodriguez on the 10-day injured list. Rodriguez is said to be dealing with shoulder inflammation. The 29-year-old has certainly not been in top form this year, turning south after a breakout 2018 showing. While his velocity has held steady, his swinging-strike rate has plummeted from 13.8% to 9.6%. Though Rodriguez has maintained a solid 3.72 ERA, it has come in spite of his poor peripherals (7.6 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.9 HR/9).
  • The Cardinals announced yesterday that they have relieved assistant hitting coach Mark Budaska of his duties. He’ll be replaced by Jobel Jimenez, who had served as the club’s Triple-A hitting coach prior to his promotion. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link) interprets the decision as one that “underscores [the] commitment to hitting coach Jeff Albert.” Indeed, the organization is working to spread Albert’s “comprehensive offensive strategy throughout [its] system.” Albert, who has spent time in the Cardinals and Astros organizations prior to taking on the current role in the fall of 2018, discussed his philosophies with David Laurila of Fangraphs not long after getting the gig. Goold had previously examined Budaska’s importance to the Cards’ developmental system before the hiring of Albert. As for Jimenez, he’s a well-known commodity to the St. Louis front office, having spent more than a decade working on the Cardinals farm.
  • Finally, the Nationals appear optimistic on the health outlooks of two superstars. The club believes it has dodged a bullet with outfielder Juan Soto, as Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic was among those to cover (Twitter links). Soto was able to participate in baseball activities yesterday after initially fearing he had suffered a significant ankle injury in his latest contest. Meanwhile, ace Max Scherzer continues to make steady progress in his quest to move past a back issue. He remains slated for a sim game and is said to be feeling well, but the team still isn’t confident of a particular timeline. ***Update: Soto is in today’s lineup, while Scherzer threw his sim game as scheduled.

Cardinals Place Jose Martinez On IL, Select Randy Arozarena, Activate Yadier Molina

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The Cardinals have placed outfielder Jose Martinez on the 10-day injured list with a right AC joint sprain, selected the contract of outfielder Randy Arozarena from Triple-A Memphis, activated catcher Yadier Molina from the IL and optioned backstop Andrew Knizner, Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets.

This has been a surprisingly underwhelming season for the 31-year-old Martinez, who has slashed just .266/.336/.401 (96 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 348 plate appearances. Martinez was far better over the previous two seasons, during which he hit .306/.369/.478 (129 wRC+) with 31 long balls across 897 PA.

The Cardinals will replace Martinez with Arozarena, a Cuba native who signed with the club for $1.25MM in 2016. Now 24 years old, Arozarena has hit a spectacular .368/.442/.562 (147 wRC+) with seven home runs and eight steals at the Triple-A level this season.

Not to be forgotten, Molina – one of the greatest Cardinals ever – is back after spending a month on the IL with a right thumb tendon strain. The 37-year-old’s thumb has bothered him since May, which is likely among the reasons he has batted a woeful .261/.286/.368 (70 wRC+) in 276 trips to the plate this season. Backup Matt Wieters has been a fine offensive substitute in Molina’s stead, though it has been a while since the former was an especially well-regarded defender.

Angels Claim Adalberto Mejia (Again)

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The Angels announced Thursday that they’ve claimed lefty Adalberto Mejia off waivers from the Cardinals. It’s the second time this season that the Halos have claimed Mejia, whom they lost to the Cardinals on waivers in late July after designating him for assignment themselves. To make room on the 40-man roster, the Halos requested unconditional release waivers on catcher Jose Briceno.

A former top 100 prospect who profiled as a fourth starter, Mejia never established himself with the Twins and has now bounced from Minnesota to Anaheim to St. Louis and back to Anaheim this season. He’s posted a 7.54 ERA in 22 2/3 innings, though he’s only a season removed from solid numbers as a starter with Minnesota’s Triple-A affiliate a season ago. Mejia is out of minor league options, so the Angels will have to keep him on the big league roster or else expose him to waivers for what would be the fourth time this season.

Mejia was designated by the Angels at the conclusion of a 16-inning marathon game that depleted their ’pen, and the club was perhaps reluctant to make that move. They’ll now get a second look at the big lefty as they evaluate whether he can be a potential piece of the pitching staff moving forward — be it in the ’pen or in the rotation. He has experience in both arenas.

As for Briceno, the 26-year-old has spent the season in Triple-A Salt Lake, where he’s managed a tepid .215/.262/.405 slash in 84 plate appearances. He’s shown a bit of pop in limited Triple-A action over the past couple seasons but has a sub-.300 OBP at every level above Class-A ball in his career.

Marcell Ozuna Would Prefer To Stay With Cardinals

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This has been a solid but injury-shortened season for Cardinals outfielder Marcell Ozuna, who ranks among the game’s best pending free-agent position players. Although Ozuna could have a chance to shop his services around the majors in a few months, the soon-to-be 29-year-old would like to remain with the Cardinals, Mark Saxon of The Athletic writes (subscription required).

“I hope to stay here,” Ozuna told Saxon. “Let’s see how the season goes and how much I can help the team, but my preference is to stay here. I like the team, the city of St. Louis, everything. Maybe at the end of the season, we can get something done. Let’s see how the team finishes.”

The Cardinals, however, aren’t prepared to discuss an extension yet. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Saxon it’s “good to hear” Ozuna wants to remain a Redbird, but he added, “We will focus on this in the offseason.”

If the two sides don’t reach an agreement before the market opens, the Cardinals are likely to slap a qualifying offer on Ozuna as he potentially prepares to depart. That would be a pricey move on the team’s part (the QO was worth $17.9MM last offseason), but Ozuna is on the way to justifying the investment with another respectable showing.

Now in his second year with the Cardinals, the former Marlin has slashed .252/.329/.505 (115 wRC+) with 1.6 fWAR over 346 plate appearances in 2019. Ozuna missed just over a month this summer with multiple finger fractures, but he has still piled up 21 home runs. His prodigious power has helped make him a favorite of Statcast, which places Ozuna anywhere from the league’s 79th to 98th percentile in expected batting average, expected weighted on-base average, expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Aside from J.D. Martinez, primarily a designated hitter, Ozuna may be the premier corner outfield-capable player with the potential to become a free agent. Martinez definitely isn’t a lock to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM left on his contract with Boston, though. Conversely, Ozuna’s very likely to face competition from fellow pending free-agent corner outfielders Nicholas Castellanos and Yasiel Puig – two just-traded players who won’t be eligible for qualifying offers – and maybe Kole Calhoun if the Angels decline his $14MM option.

For their part, the Cardinals don’t appear to have any outfielders as appealing as Ozuna right now. That could influence the club to try to bring Ozuna back, though St. Louis is likely mindful that its recent big-money contracts for veteran position players haven’t paid off to this point. The Cardinals have issues a combined $311.5MM in guarantees to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, catcher Yadier Molina, third baseman Matt Carpenter and outfielder Dexter Fowler dating back to December 2016. All four of those players have experienced marked declines in production since receiving their deals, which helps explain why the Cardinals aren’t in possession of a National League playoff spot at the moment.

Alex Reyes Headed For Additional Testing, May Not Pitch Again In 2019

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It appears that Cardinals righty Alex Reyes is once again threatened by the potential of a season-ending injury. Mark Saxon of The Athletic tweets that Reyes is heading to St. Louis for another round of imaging and examinations on his ailing right pectoral muscle, adding that it “appears as if his 2019 season is over.”

Reyes, 25 later this month, has been limited to just 40 1/3 innings in 2019 — only three of which came at the MLB level. He hasn’t pitched in a game since a June 23 outing and hasn’t appeared in the Majors since April 5. At the time of the injury, it was announced as a pectoral strain that was only expected to cost Reyes two to three starts, but manager Mike Shildt said Wednesday that Reyes’ arm didn’t respond well to a bullpen session this week (Twitter link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).

If Reyes is indeed shut down for the season, it’ll mark a third straight season for Reyes that has been virtually wiped out by injury. He didn’t pitch at all in 2017 due to Tommy John surgery, was limited to 26 innings last year thanks largely to surgery to repair a tendon in his lat muscle and has now only totaled 40 1/3 frames in 2019. Reyes is among the most highly touted pitching prospects in recent memory and was at one point hailed as a potential ace in the making, but he’s never even reached a total of 115 innings in a season between the Majors and minors combined.

The latest setback for Reyes comes at a poor time, as St. Louis has dropped four consecutive games after choosing not to add to its rotation at the trade deadline. Michael Wacha is currently holding the fifth spot in the rotation, but he’s lost that job twice already in 2019 and pitched poorly in his return to a starting role in his last outing.

Among internal alternatives, lefty Genesis Cabrera has struggled in the upper minors and in a pair of MLB starts. Right-hander Daniel Ponce de Leon made a handful of solid outings earlier this season but didn’t complete four innings in any of his three most recent starts. Lefty Austin Gomber, also on the 40-man roster, has been sidelined since mid-May. Adding depth in August is harder than ever before, and the Cardinals’ record is better than that of fellow postseason hopefuls in Milwaukee, New York, Arizona, San Francisco and Cincinnati, which lessens the likelihood of a palatable option making it to St. Louis on outright waivers.

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