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Perrotto’s Latest: Vazquez, Valverde, DeRosa, Pavano

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In today's column over at Baseball Prospectus, John Perrotto says nobody has been better at making deadline deals in the previous two seasons than Theo Epstein. I might agree but would love to hear some counter arguments.

As usual, Perrotto has his share of rumors from around the league:

  • The Braves need offense and are considering dealing Javier Vazquez to get it.
  • Don't expect Jose Valverde to return to Houston next season. He plans to test free agency and will likely find a better paycheck elsewhere.
  • The White Sox plan to re-sign Freddy Garcia to be their fifth starter.
  • The Cardinals would like to re-sign Mark DeRosa before he reaches free agency at the end of the season.
  • The Twins are planning an attempt to re-sign Carl Pavano, also a to-be free agent at season's end.
  • If the Nationals can acquire a shortstop in the offseason they would like Cristian Guzman to move to second base.

Odds & Ends: Soriano, Reds, Diamondbacks

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A couple more links for tonight…

  • Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post Dispatch tweets that the Cardinals and Braves discussed closer Rafael Soriano earlier this year. We heard some rumblings of a Joe Mather for Soriano deal over the summer. 
  • MLB.com's Mark Sheldon wonders who should start in center field for the Reds next year – Chris Dickerson, Drew Stubbs, or Willy Taveras. Taveras is under contract for $4MM next year, plus Dusty loves his veterans, so he might get the job by default.
  • Steve Gilbert of MLB.com notes that the Diamondbacks and manager A.J. Hinch will wait until after the season to make any decisions about the coaching staff.

Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Pitching, Rays, Padres, DeRosa

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Let's see what Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com has for us in his latest Full Count video…

  • The free agent market for starting pitching doesn't look very enticing, but the trade market could be intriguing. Toronto will almost certainly field offers for Roy Halladay again, the Cubs could trade Carlos Zambrano, and the Braves could deal Javier Vazquez if they decide to keep Tim Hudson.
  • The Astros might finally be ready to move ace Roy Oswalt. While he does have a full no-trade clause, Oswalt has told the club in the past that he'd be willing to consider moves to St. Louis, both Chicago teams, Texas, and Atlanta.
  • Tampa Bay moved Scott Kazmir when his value was high, so perhaps it's unlikely they'd move B.J. Upton when his value is low. Regardless, many teams covet the elder Upton brother because at his best he's a righty slugger with superior defense in center field. In his place, the Rays could go in-house with Fernando Perez or Desmond Jennings.
  • Keep in mind that if Tampa were to trade an outfielder, they might prefer to deal Carl Crawford. Upton is three years away from free agency; Crawford just one.
  • The Padres' recent surge has GM Kevin Towers thinking the team could be a surprise contender next year. The question is this: how low will the team's payroll go? The subtraction of Brian Giles would leave the payroll in the mid-$30MM range, but there are some that believe the team will move either Adrian Gonzalez or Heath Bell and get down into the mid-$20MM range. Ownership has yet to give the front office a firm payroll number for 2010.
  • The Cardinals want to re-sign Mark DeRosa, but his offseason wrist surgery changes the equation. DeRosa is fully expected to be ready by the start of Spring Training, but he'll come with some risk. If he was fully healthy, he would be nearly as coveted as Chone Figgins, but supply and demand will work in DeRosa's favor because there are very few quality third baseman available. Plus, he can also play a ton of other positions.

Olney On Matt Holliday And The Cardinals

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ESPN.com's Buster Olney doesn't expect the Cardinals to spend much differently than usual this offseason, despite their aggressiveness at this year's trade deadline. The Cards took on salary to acquire Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa, but the team may not be able to spend as much this offseason. As Olney points out, the Cardinals have never opened the season with a payroll over $92.1MM. 

The Cards have committed to Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter and others, so they may be unable to retain Holliday without exceeding $100MM. The club could increase its payroll, of course, but recent history suggests the Cardinals will operate on an eight figure budget.

One scout says Holliday was easy to pitch to in the American League, which could limit potential suitors. However, Olney guesses the Angels will ultimately sign the left fielder.

Cardinals Discuss Extension With DeRosa

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WEDNESDAY, 8:34am: Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has more quotes from Mozeliak, who admits it'd be easier to re-sign DeRosa before free agency than Matt Holliday.  Strauss says Mozeliak "minimized the potential impact of DeRosa's left wrist injury."

TUESDAY, 9:42pm: The Cardinals have discussed an extension with impending free agent third baseman Mark DeRosa, according to MLB.com's Matthew Leach.  But Leach says GM John Mozeliak "emphasized not to over-sell those discussions."  Too late – we dedicated this post to them!

DeRosa, 35 in February, has scuffled to a .244/.313/.425 line for the Cards since coming over in a trade with the Indians on June 27th.  A big factor: he tore a tendon sheath in his wrist a few days after the trade; it will eventually require surgery.  The versatile DeRosa is earning $5.5MM and sits on the borderline of Type A and B status.

Mozeliak also told Leach that the team plans to go year-to-year with Ryan Ludwick rather than lock him up.  Ludwick came back down to Earth this year – his OBP dropped from .375 to .333 and his SLG from .591 to .465.

Rosenthal On Garcia, Pirates, Papelbon

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The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…

  • Rosenthal says Florida's Chris Coghlan deserves the NL Rookie of the Year award.  Andrew McCutchen, Garrett Jones, J.A. Happ, Randy Wells, and Tommy Hanson are also in the mix…who do you like?
  • For the AL ROY, Rosenthal sticks with his preseason choice of Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus.  Jeff Niemann, Andrew Bailey, Nolan Reimold, and Gordon Beckham are other top contenders.
  • Rosenthal has a few possible Nationals managerial candidates: Diamondbacks third base coach Chip Hale, Bobby Valentine, and Bob Melvin.  It's also possible Jim Riggleman is retained.
  • I was not aware of this – Freddy Garcia's deal with the White Sox has a 2010 option with a $1MM base and $2MM in incentives.  Garcia has an 89mph fastball these days, but he's posted quality starts in three of four tries (against the Yankees and Red Sox).
  • The Pirates would only trade starters Paul Maholm or Zach Duke if they receive "a young major league starter of similar quality, plus another piece."  I mentioned that the Bucs look pretty good for 2011, but Rosenthal says team officials are not conceding 2010.
  • Rosenthal's source describes a Jonathan Papelbon trade as "pretty unrealistic."  Jayson Stark's sources had a similar opinion.
  • Rosenthal rattles off the teams that have had past interest in Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla, who is getting pricey: the Orioles, Twins, Giants, D'Backs, Dodgers, and Cardinals.

Odds And Ends: Mets, Padilla, Cardinals

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Derek Jeter could become the all-time Yankees hit leader today, but in the meantime, here are some links:

  • Jim Bastian of The Journal reports that the Dodgers re-signed Jamie Hoffman just two days after designating him for assignment in a procedural move.
  • As Ben Shpigel of the New York Times notes, Daniel Murphy could start at first base for the Mets next year. This could allow the team to spend on an outfielder, perhaps even Jason Bay or Matt Holliday.
  • MLB.com's David Ely says Vicente Padilla has been more than serviceable since the Dodgers picked him up to bolster their rotation in late August.
  • Yahoo's Jeff Passan says the Cardinals are the champions of the trade deadline. Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, Julio Lugo and John Smoltz have turned the Cards into a force. 
  • ESPN.com's Rob Neyer expects Jose Tabata to spend the next six years making the Yankees look foolish. The Pirates acquired Tabata in the Xavier Nady trade last summer.
  • Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post gives Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd credit for the team's strong play. 

Heyman On Holliday, Red Sox, Pedro, Bradley

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The latest from SI's Jon Heyman…

  • Heyman covers numerous examples of National League GMs mining the American League scrap heap.
  • Heyman agrees with Jayson Stark's note yesterday, that the Yankees will allow Derek Jeter to enter his walk year unsigned and worry about it after the 2010 season.
  • The Cardinals will try hard to retain Matt Holliday, but Heyman believes the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox could be in the mix for the slugger.
  • Heyman discusses future shortstop possibilities for the Red Sox – they could retain Alex Gonzalez or go after Marco Scutaro.  He says they "don't seem anxious" to bring Orlando Cabrera back.
  • Pedro Martinez is looking good, and Heyman says only the Phillies and Rangers had real interest.  The Cubs and Brewers were on the fringes.
  • Heyman talked to two GMs about the Cubs and Milton Bradley.  One thought the Cubs could unload him by eating half his remaining $21MM; another thought they'd need to assume almost all the money.  I am not a Bradley apologist; he's certainly been a distraction.  But how would subtracting a .394 OBP make the Cubs' middling offense better?

Odds & Ends: Posey, Maybin, Penny

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Links for Wednesday…

  • Due to Bengie Molina's injury, the Giants have changed their mind and called up top prospect Buster Posey according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News.  So Posey's clock starts earlier than planned.
  • Speaking of service time, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith tells me Cameron Maybin's call-up gives him 129 days of service time after this year.  That puts him on the fringe of Super Two status after the 2011 season.
  • ESPN's Jerry Crasnick ranks the impact of trades made by contenders in July.  He talked to an exec who thinks Matt Holliday "could make an extra $3MM a year as a free agent this winter because of his strong finish."
  • Yahoo's Gordon Edes has his trade deadline winners and losers.
  • Ryan Doumit's agent Matt Sosnick shot down recent negativity surrounding his client, while Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette gets to the bottom of the catcher's recent benching.
  • Brad Penny still hates the Dodgers, a team he'll face twice this month according to Baggarly.  Baggarly also has a quote from Penny ripping on the Marlins.
  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has more from Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy, who knows he gained trade value when the team delayed his free agency.
  • J.C. Bradbury of Sabernomics wonders whether the Braves should pick up Tim Hudson's $12MM option for 2010.  Hudson has the right to void that option, not that he would.  Back in January Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution said the Braves "fully intend to exercise it, barring some unexpected turn of events."
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs notes that Kendry Morales has matched the production of the Angels' former first baseman, $180MM man Mark Teixeira.
  • Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic has comments from Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes on the team's Jon Rauch–Kevin Mulvey swap.  Piecoro says the D'Backs have about $23MM to work with this winter as they presumably look to add pitching.
  • Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times guesses Ken Griffey Jr. will retire after this season.

Cardinals Extend Ryan Franklin, Trever Miller

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11:20pm: Goold has the contract details.  As he mentioned before, Franklin gets about $6.5MM plus incentives for 2010-11.  As for Miller:

The contract finalized Sunday picks up and guarantees all of his bonuses for this season — some $680K worth for appearances yet to come — and pays him $2MM for next year. Miller has a $2MM vesting option for 2011. It triggers a $1MM buyout if he makes 45 appearances in 2010 and does not go on the disabled list with the shoulder imperfection discovered in the physical.

2:40pm: The Cardinals extended the contracts of relievers Ryan Franklin and Trever Miller, according to Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter).  Franklin's deal runs through 2011, while Miller's is through 2010 with a vesting option for '11.  Here's the press release from the Cardinals; terms are not yet known.

Franklin stepped into the Cardinals' closer role this year and saved 35 games in 37 tries.  His 1.05 ERA is obviously not sustainable, as Franklin has been oddly unhittable and his flyballs have not left the yard.  That said, it's hard to see fault in the two-year, $6.5MM price suggested by Derrick Goold of the P-D.  Goold says Franklin can earn incentives if he remains the team's closer.

Lefty specialist Miller has answered the bell by holding southpaws to a .100/.161/.175 line this year.  As a free agent signing in December, Miller was guaranteed only $500K by the Cardinals due to concerns they had about his shoulder.

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