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2021 Arbitration Hearing Results & Post-Deadline Agreements

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January 15 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to officially submit salary figures for the 2021, and by the time the day was done, only 13 players didn’t reach agreement on a contract.  The majority of teams now adhere to the “file or trial” strategy, meaning that no further negotiations on a one-year deal will take place between the arbitration deadline and a hearing with an arbiter, which theoretically puts pressure on players to get a deal done if they are wary about taking their case to a third party.

“File and trial” tactics didn’t stop the Astros and Carlos Correa from agreeing to a one-year deal for just the 2021 season, which is also Correa’s last year before gaining free agent eligibility.  We also saw three multi-year deals reached, all from the greater Los Angeles area — the Dodgers reached two-year deals with Walker Buehler and Austin Barnes, while the Angels inked a two-year pact with Shohei Ohtani.

This left nine unresolved cases that went all the way to a hearing (held over Zoom) between an arbiter, the player, his representative(s), and front office personnel arguing the team’s side.  The teams won five of the nine hearings, continuing the very narrow edge teams have held over players in arb cases in recent years — over the last 99 arbitration hearings, teams hold a 51-48 record over players.

For the full list of every salary for every arbitration-eligible player this offseason, check out the MLB Trade Rumors Arb Tracker.  Sticking to the 13 players with unresolved cases from January 15, here’s the rundown…

Avoided Arbitration, One-Year Contract

Avoided Arbitration, Multi-Year Contract

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Player

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Team

Rays To Re-Sign Oliver Drake

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7:22pm: Drake will earn $775K in the deal, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. The contract includes a roster bonus of $325K if Drake hangs onto a spot for fifty days.

7:43am: The Rays have agreed to a Major League deal with right-hander Oliver Drake, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The 34-year-old had a very strong showing with Tampa Bay in 2019 but battled forearm and biceps issues in 2020 and was ultimately removed from the 40-man roster during the postseason in order to make room for an ALDS replacement. He elected free agency after clearing waivers. He’s still recovering from the effects of that injury, it seems, as Topkin adds that Drake is expected to be ready to pitch around midseason.

Drake’s 2020 season was a rough one, as he was tagged for eight runs (seven earned) on seven hits and six walks with seven strikeouts in 11 frames. The forearm strain clearly dogged him, however, as evidenced by his fastball velocity dropping more than two miles per hour in his limited slate of work. He first hit the injured list with biceps tendinitis in early August before landing back on the IL due to a flexor strain in October.

The 2019 season was another story entirely for Drake. A year after riding the DFA carousel like none other and appearing for a record five teams in one season, Drake cemented himself in the Rays’ bullpen with a very strong showing. Through 56 innings, Drake worked to a 3.21 ERA and near-identical 3.18 SIERA while striking out 32 percent of opponents against a tidy 8.7 percent walk rate. Drake also induced grounders at a 52.3 percent clip and was, in general, something of a Statcast darling that year. He ranked in the 83rd percentile or better in each of the following categories: whiff percentage, overall strikeout percentage, expected ERA, expected batting average against, expected slugging percentage against and expected wOBA.

Whether he can return to those heights will be largely dependent on his health, but it makes good sense for the Rays to bring him back on an affordable deal to see if he can do just that. And by waiting until pitchers and catchers report to make the move, Tampa Bay can effectively stash Drake on the 60-day injured list from the jump. Had they signed him earlier in the offseason, they’d have had to boot someone else from the 40-man roster and carry him on the 40-man until camp opened and the 60-day IL was made available. Should Drake return to form, he’d be controllable through the 2022 season via arbitration.

Rays Acquire Chris Mazza, Jeffrey Springs From Red Sox

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9:19am: The teams have officially announced the four-player trade. Tampa Bay placed lefty Jalen Beeks, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, on the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot. The Red Sox, notably, announced that backup catcher Kevin Plawecki has been placed on the Covid-19 related injured list (which can be done either for positive cases or for players who have been exposed to positive cases).

9:00am: The two sides have agreed to the trade of Mazza, Springs and cash for Hernandez and Sogard, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

8:09am: The Rays and Red Sox are moving toward a trade that would send recently designated-for-assignment pitchers Chris Mazza and Jeffrey Springs from Boston to Tampa Bay in exchange for minor league catcher Ronaldo Hernandez and another Rays farmhand, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter thread). MLB.com’s Adam Berry tweets that 23-year-old Nick Sogard, the Rays’ 12th-round pick in 2019, is the other player going to Boston in the deal.

Hernandez ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects as recently as the 2018-19 offseason, so it’s a bit of a surprise to see the Rays deal him and another minor leaguer in exchange for a pair of recently DFA’ed arms. Hernandez’s prospect stock has tumbled in recent seasons, however, and the Rays are likely aiming to stockpile as much optionable pitching depth as possible to get them through a 2021 season when most pitchers will be on limited workloads.

Mazza, 31, has spent time in the Majors with the Mets and Red Sox across the past two seasons but hasn’t matched his strong Triple-A results. In 46 1/3 big league innings, he’s posted a 5.05 ERA and 4.96 SIERA with sub-par strikeout (21.3), walk (11.0) and ground-ball (35.4) percentages. Mazza does carry a 3.72 ERA in 92 Triple-A frames and a 3.24 mark in 283 2/3 Double-A innings, but he’s been with five MLB organizations (Twins, Marlins, Mariners, Mets, Red Sox) and hasn’t carried those results to the big leagues yet.

The 2020 season was Springs’ first with the Red Sox, and it proved to be a struggle. In 20 1/3 frames, the former Rangers southpaw was tagged for a 7.08 ERA. He struck out 28 percent of his opponents against just a seven percent walk rate, but five of the 99 opponents Springs faced took him deep. He has a 5.42 ERA and 4.66 FIP in 84 2/3 innings at the Major League level between the Texas and Boston organizations.

Mazza limited hard contact reasonably well in 2020, while Springs showed plenty of aptitude for missing bats even if he yielded too many long balls. Both figure to be shuttled back and forth between the Rays’ Triple-A club in Durham and their MLB roster throughout the season. The Rays surely believe they can coax more out of both players as well, either by tinkering with their pitch mixes or altering their approach with the existing arsenals of Mazza and Springs.

The trade also illustrates the volatility of prospects and serves as a reminder not to be too beholden to prospect lists, which are typically just a snapshot in time anyhow. Hernandez posted big numbers in Rookie ball and had a strong full-season debut in 2018 when he slashed .284/.339/.494 with 21 homers in 109 games. His 2019 season in Class-A Advanced, however, resulted in a lackluster .265/.299/.397 showing, though he did rebound with a good showing during 11 games of Arizona Fall League action.

Hernandez still ranked 13th among Tampa Bay prospects, per Baseball America, but perhaps the Rays’ internal evaluations vary. It’s tougher than ever to evaluate prospects right now after they didn’t have a minor league season in 2020 and weren’t as widely accessible for scouts. The Rays may feel that Hernandez’s stock is more diminished than the general public consensus. Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, meanwhile, knows Hernandez quite well from his time as a Rays vice president and was likely more than content to roll the dice on a prospect at an organizational position of need when the cost was a pair of arms the Sox determined to be fringe 40-man contributors.

Boston will also pick up Sogard, a utility-infield type who is devoid of any power but can move around the diamond with a contact-driven skill set at the plate. Sogard hit all of two home runs in his NCAA career and slashed .290/.405/.313 in 63 games for the Rays’ short-season Class-A affiliate following the draft. He walked nearly as often as he struck out that year — a trend which aligns with his college days at Loyola Marymount.

Rays Trade John Curtiss To Marlins

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The Marlins and Rays are in agreement on a trade sending right-hander John Curtiss from Tampa Bay to Miami in exchange for minor league first baseman Evan Edwards, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).

John Curtiss

Curtiss, who’ll turn 28 in early April, had his first taste of Major League success with the Rays in 2020. The former Twins draftee ranked as one of the more promising relief prospects in the organization as he climbed through the minors, but he struggled in the big leagues with two teams (Twins, Angels) and in Triple-A with a third (Phillies) before finally landing with the Rays and ostensibly breaking through.

In 25 innings last year, Curtiss posted a 1.80 ERA with a 25.3 percent strikeout rate and just a three percent walk rate. He’s never displayed that level of command before last year’s shortened season, however, and walks have often been his undoing when he’s struggled. Curtiss also benefited from an 87.2 percent strand rate that he’s not likely to sustain. Curtiss has slightly above-average spin and velocity on his fastball, though he also yielded one of the highest average exit velocities in the game last year (92 mph).

Clearly the Marlins are of the belief that Curtiss can continue to thrive in the big leagues, even if he takes a step back from last year’s sub-2.00 ERA. Curtiss does have multiple minor league option years remaining, so he’ll give the club some depth and flexibility in the ’pen for the foreseeable future. He’s controllable all the way through the 2025 campaign if he can manage to solidify himself as a consistent big league presence.

In return for Curtiss, the Rays will receive the 23-year-old Edwards — a 2019 fourth-rounder out of North Carolina State. He only has half a season’s worth of pro experience due to last year’s lack of minor league games, but Edwards was productive in that time. In 308 plate appearances following the draft, Edwards batted .281/.357/.442 with nine homers, 15 doubles and a triple.

It should be noted, though, that the Marlins weren’t particularly aggressive with Edwards’ assignments that year, sending him to short-season Class-A and then the Class-A Midwest League where most of the competition he faced was younger than him. He also posted a 26.9 percent strikeout rate, so he’ll likely need to improve his bat-to-ball skills as he climbs the minor league ladder. Edwards didn’t rank among the Marlins’ top 30 prospects heading into the 2021 season, per Baseball America.

Rays Win Arbitration Case With Ryan Yarbrough

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The Rays have won their arbitration hearing against left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter).  Tampa Bay will pay Yarbrough $2.3MM in 2021, as opposed to the $3.1MM salary Yarbrough was hoping to land.

This was the first of four arb-eligible years for Yarbrough, who qualified for the extra arbitration year by gaining enough service time to reach Super Two eligibility.  He therefore gets his first big (if not quite as big as he was hoping) guaranteed payday a bit earlier in his career, and he’ll have an opportunity for greater earning potential as his arbitration salaries escalate up until he is eligible for free agency following the 2024 season.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a salary in the range of $2.2MM to $3.6MM for Yarbrough, a wider range than usual due to both the unusual nature of the 2020 season and due to the Rays’ unique usage of Yarbrough for much of his pro career.  Tampa often deployed Yarbrough as a bulk pitcher in both 2018 and 2019, with the southpaw entering the game for extended outings in “relief” after an opener tossed the first inning or two.

Yarbrough mostly worked as a regular starter in 2020 (starting nine of 11 games), which may have additionally worked against him since arbiters tend to rely on traditional statistics in hearings.  By that standard, Yarbrough only recorded one win and 44 strikeouts in 55 2/3 innings, along with a 3.56 ERA.  This case could also be an important precedent for future arbitration cases involving bulk pitchers, as the Rays and other teams continue to blur the lines between the standard definitions of starters and relievers.

No matter the role, Yarbrough has posted some solid numbers over his three MLB seasons and 344 2/3 career innings.  The 29-year-old has a 3.94 ERA (4.44 SIERA) and a middle-of-the-pack 20.3% strikeout rate, but also a tiny 5.8% walk rate.  Between this strong control and an elite ability to limit hard contact, Yarbrough had found success despite a fastball that averaged only 87.4mph last season.

The Rays end the 2020-21 arbitration season with a .500 record in cases, topping Yarbrough but losing to first baseman Ji-Man Choi.

Rays To Sign Collin McHugh

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FEB. 12: The Rays have finalized a $1.8MM deal with McHugh, pending a physical, Topkin reports.

FEB. 11, 9:55pm: If finalized, it will be a one-year major league pact, Topkin writes.

9:15pm: The Rays and right-hander Collin McHugh are closing in on an agreement, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. There’s “work to be done” on both sides prior to the deal becoming official, though, Topkin adds.

McHugh was largely successful with the Astros as a starter and reliever from 2014-19, but elbow issues negatively affected him in the last of those years and continued to do so in 2020. McHugh signed with the Red Sox before last season, but he was ultimately not healthy enough to pitch for the club. The 33-year-old has recovered since then, though, according to Topkin, and his history indicates he could be a useful pickup for the Rays if he is indeed back from his arm problems.

McHugh, also a former Met and Rockie, would bring a lifetime 3.95 ERA with almost a strikeout per inning and fewer than three walks per nine across a lifetime 800 2/3 frames to the Rays. Considering McHugh established himself in Houston as someone capable of filling long- and short-inning roles, it seems he would fit in well on a Tampa Bay team known for its flexibility with its pitching staff.

Rays Agree To Deal With Rich Hill

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9:22pm: Hill will earn $2.5MM on a one-year deal, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.

8:32pm: The two sides have a deal, pending a physical, Robert Murray of Fansided tweets.

8:22pm: The Rays are progressing toward a deal with free-agent left-hander Rich Hill, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

Hill will turn 41 in March, and though he was hardly outstanding during the first decade of his career, he has only gotten better with age. Dating back to his stunning renaissance in 2015, Hill – despite possessing 90 mph velocity – has logged a 2.93 ERA/3.57 SIERA with a quality strikeout percentage of 28.6 and and a better-than-average walk rate of 7.9 percent in 503 innings as a member of the Red Sox, Athletics, Dodgers and Twins. The only concern has been Hill’s durability, as various injuries have limited him and he hasn’t hit the 136-inning mark in a season since he revived his career. He threw 38 2/3 frames as a Twin during the truncated 2020 campaign, averaging fewer than five innings out of his eight starts.

Of course, if there’s any team unconcerned about a hurler going deep into games, it’s the Rays. They’re known to rely heavily on their bullpen, evidenced in part by their opener strategy, so Hill could be an ideal fit for the club. The Rays lost 2020 starters Blake Snell (trade) and Charlie Morton (free agency) earlier in the offseason after an AL-winning year, but the small-budget team is trying to put together a low-priced rotation with Hill, fellow offseason additions Chris Archer and Michael Wacha (and potentially Collin McHugh), as well as holdovers Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough.

Rays Add Four Pitchers On Minor League Deals

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The Rays are reported to be nearing a big league deal with veteran righty Collin McHugh, but they’ve also been active in minor league free agency this week. Tampa Bay has agreed to non-roster invitations with lefty Brian Moran and right-handers Joey Krehbiel and Louis Head, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. They’ve also signed righty Stetson Allie to a minor league deal and Spring Training invite, as announced by agent Gavin Kahn on Twitter.

Each of Moran and Krehbiel have some big league experience under their belts. Moran, the older brother of Pirates first baseman Colin Moran, has pitched 11 innings between the Marlins and Blue Jays over the past two seasons. He’s surrendered eight runs in that time and displayed some problematic control (14.5 percent walk rate, three hit batters, three wild pitches), but Moran has also whiffed 31 percent of opponents. The 32-year-old has pitched in parts of five Triple-A seasons with a 3.67 ERA and 30.2 percent strikeout rate.

The 28-year-old Krehbiel tossed three scoreless frames for the 2018 D-backs but hasn’t made it back to the Majors since that time. Like Moran, Krehbiel has some bat-missing ability (25 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A) but problematic control that has held him back (12.5 percent walk rate in Triple-A).

Allie may be a familiar name to some due to his status as a once-touted pitching prospect. The 2010 second-rounder was considered one of the top high school arms in the draft and landed on a few Top 100 lists before injuries stalled his career. Allie pivoted and tried to make it as a first baseman/outfielder for several years before returning to the mound on a full-time basis in 2018. He’s spent time with the Pirates, who drafted him, and the Dodgers. He’s yet to make it to the big leagues, but the Rays will hope to coax another level out of the now-29-year-old righty, whose fastball has in the past reached triple digits.

Head, a longtime Indians farmhand who spent 2019 with the Dodgers organization as well, is a career reliever who posted strong numbers through Double-A but hasn’t yet matched that success in Triple-A. He has a 5.46 ERA in 90 2/3 frames of Triple-A ball while striking out just shy of a quarter of opponents against an 11.5 percent walk rate he’ll need to reduce.

Rays Sign Chris Archer

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Feb. 9: Archer has passed his physical, and the deal is official, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. A formal announcement and a (re)introductory Zoom call will both come later today. The team won’t need to make an additional 40-man move to create roster space after trading Aaron Slegers to the Angels last night.

Feb. 2: Free-agent right-hander Chris Archer is returning to the Rays, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. It’s a one-year, $6.5MM contract, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. The deal is pending a physical. Archer is a client of VC Sports Group.

A 2006 fifth-round pick who opened his career with the Indians and Cubs organizations, Archer first joined the Rays in a significant trade with Chicago in January 2011. Archer was a highly regarded prospect at the time who wound up matching the hype in Tampa Bay, where he debuted in 2012 and was an eminently valuable member of its rotation for several years. Through 2018, the last year of his initial run with the franchise, Archer posted a 3.69 ERA/3.52 SIERA with a 25.8 percent strikeout rate and a 7.7 percent walk rate in 1,063 innings and 177 starts.

Despite the success Archer enjoyed as a Ray, the club decided to move on from him when his team control was dwindling before the 2018 trade deadline. That proved to be another brilliant trade by the Rays, who received two righties – Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz – as well as outfielder Austin Meadows from the Pirates in exchange for Archer. Glasnow and Meadows have since turned into major league building blocks for the Rays, while FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked Baz as their seventh-best prospect in a deep farm system last month.

The Archer trade was a disaster for Pittsburgh, meanwhile, as it lost three quality pieces for a player who disappointed in its uniform. The Pirates encouraged Archer to lean on his sinker, which did not work, as Steve Adams of MLBTR noted last offseason. Archer’s production dipped in the wake of the trade and got fell even more in 2019, when he registered career worsts in ERA (5.19), SIERA (4.38) and home run-to-fly ball percentage (20.2) in 119 2/3 innings. The hope was that Archer would bounce back last year, but he instead missed the season after undergoing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in June. The Pirates then declined his $11MM club option for 2021 in favor of a $250K buyout.

Considering Archer’s recent performance and the severity of his procedure, the Rays are taking a big risk that he will return to being a viable starter. But it does look like a coup for the reigning American League champions that they’ve now reunited with the player they received such a massive return for just a couple of years ago. If healthy, the 32-year-old Archer may be able to help replace Blake Snell and Charlie Morton, whom the Rays’ rotation has lost since last season ended. He’s the second reclamation project the Rays’ starting staff has taken on in free agency, joining $3MM signing Michael Wacha.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Angels Acquire Aaron Slegers, Designate Dillon Peters

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The Angels have acquired right-hander Aaron Slegers from the Rays for a player to be named later or cash considerations, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. The Halos also designated lefty Dillon Peters for assignment, per Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times.

Slegers, a fifth-round pick of the Twins in 2013, was traded to Tampa Bay before 2019 and then had his most experience at the big league level last season. While Slegers combined for 32 innings in the majors from 2017-19, that barely outpaced the 26 frames he amassed in 2020. In all, the soft-tossing, 6-foot-10 Slegers has put up a 4.66 ERA over 58 major league frames.

Peters, who – like Slegers – is 28 years old, was with the Marlins and Angels from 2018-20. He recorded a 5.83 ERA/5.22 SIERA then with a 16.7 percent strikeout rate and a 9.9 percent walk rate in 132 2/3 innings between the clubs

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