Manny Machado Trade Talks Have Reportedly Accelerated
Though there’s still four weeks until the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline, trade talks surrounding Manny Machado have “accelerated” in recent days, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The Orioles, according to Rosenthal, would prefer to move Machado “sooner rather than later,” as they can extract more in a trade if the acquiring team controls Machado for three months as opposed to two months.
To this point in the summer, the teams most connected to Machado have been the Dodgers, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Indians. The Brewers and Cubs have been more loosely tied to Machado on the rumor mill, though Rosenthal reports that while Milwaukee is doing its due diligence, the team is unlikely to meet Baltimore’s asking price.
That, it seems, could be true of the Phillies as well. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports that the Phillies should be considered “longshots” in the Machado trade sweepstakes. Zolecki writes that while the Phillies “love” Machado and plan to make a serious run at him in the offseason, the team doesn’t feel itself to be one piece away from a World Series. That, of course, makes it considerably more difficult to meet what is likely a rather lofty asking price from the O’s.
Rosenthal suggests that the D-backs and Indians could be the “most motivated” teams in the Machado market, and Zolecki, too, specifically lists the D-backs as a club likelier to acquire Machado than the Phillies.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, meanwhile, tweets that the Dodgers continue to “aggressively” pursue Machado, adding that the Orioles have been scouting L.A.’s system heavily and are particularly interested in Class-A Advanced right-hander Dustin May. There’d obviously be more at play than a mere one-for-one swap, but May, a third-round pick in 2016, is generally considered to be among the Dodgers’ more promising young arms. He’s off to a strong start in 2018 as well, having pitched to a 3.18 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 54.1 percent ground-ball rate through 65 innings (12 starts).
Of course, there could still be other organizations involved in discussions. Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets that eight teams have had at least some engagement with the O’s regarding Machado within the past ten days. That would suggest that there are at least a few mystery teams hanging around the periphery of talks.
Dodgers Interested In Michael Fulmer
The Dodgers have been oft-linked to Manny Machado in recent weeks, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the team is also “aggressively” pursuing Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer. Just how receptive the Tigers are to trade offers for their top starter remains unclear.
Certainly, Detroit will have to at least entertain offers on virtually any player on the roster, as the organization’s rebuild is still in its early stages. But the Tigers are in a more difficult spot with Fulmer, whose 2017 season ended due to ulnar nerve transposition surgery in his right arm. Thus far in 2018, Fulmer hasn’t been nearly as good as he was in his 2016 Rookie of the Year season or for the vast majority of the 2017 season before a series of awful starts leading up to that surgical procedure.
Through 94 1/3 innings in 2018, Fulmer is sitting on a 4.20 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9 and a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate. More troubling than his bottom-line numbers, though, is the quality of contact he’s allowed. Both Fangraphs and Statcast indicate that Fulmer’s hard-contact rate has soared by 10 percent this season. The average exit velocity of a ball put in play against Fulmer has leaped from 85.6 mph in 2017 to 88.8 mph in 2018.
There are certainly positives surrounding Fulmer’s season as well, of course. His average fastball velocity of 95.8 mph is right in line with his pre-surgery levels. His strikeout percentage (20.4), swinging-strike rate (10.3 percent) and chase rate (34.2 percent) are all either at or above his career-high levels. Fulmer looks to be in good health, and if he can sharpen his pitch location a bit, there’s reason to believe he can take some significant strides forward.
For the Tigers, though, that all boils down to the fact that Fulmer’s value simply isn’t at its peak at the moment. And given that he’s under club control for another four and a half seasons, there’s no need to rush into a trade unless the Dodgers (or any other club) bowl them over with a package from which they can’t walk away. Conversely, it’s tougher for an interested party to make that type of offer when there’s some uncertainty surrounding the pitcher’s current performance level.
Dodgers, Red Sox, Indians Among Teams Eyeing Marlins’ Bullpen
July 2, 9:14pm: The Marlins are placing an “extremely high” ask on Barraclough, in particular, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Indeed, he hears that the Miami organization is “basically looking for another club’s top prospect, or among their top prospects” in any swap involving the young hurler. The report suggests that Conley is the “most realistic” candidate to be moved among the three hurlers discussed below.
Unsurprisingly, multiple teams are poking around on the Marlins’ relievers. The Indians are among the contenders with some interest, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter).
1:22pm: The Red Sox have also been in contact with the Marlins about their late-inning relievers, Morosi writes today. While Boston is set to at last welcome Tyler Thornburg to its bullpen, the team is nonetheless exploring contingency options, per the report. More generally, it stands to reason that the majority of contenders will at least explore the possibility of adding an arm such as Barraclough, Steckenrider or (to a lesser extent, given the shorter track record in the ‘pen) Conley.
Any from that group would be an upgrade over virtually any team’s seventh- or eighth-best reliever at the very least, and deep bullpens are paramount to success in postseason play.
July 1: The Dodgers have “had preliminary dialogue” with the Marlins about some of Miami’s top bullpen arms, says Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com. That list of relievers includes Kyle Barraclough, Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley.
While Morosi’s sources have been careful to note that no deal is close at this time, there’s certainly a good fit between the two clubs. The Dodgers’ bullpen actually ranks fourth in MLB with a combined WPA of 26.06, but has recently seen Tony Cingrani, Pedro Baez and Josh Fields hit the disabled list (as Morosi himself notes).The bridge to closer Kenley Jansen appears particularly weak, with Erik Goeddel and Scott Alexander currently working in setup roles. The Dodgers are certainly contenders for the NL Pennant, sitting just 3.5 games back of the division-leading Diamondbacks. And of course, the Marlins aren’t serious competitors for a spot in the playoffs this season.
There’s certainly no rush for the Marlins to trade any of the above players, as all three have yet to even qualify for arbitration eligibility. Conley and Barraclough will remain under club control through 2021, while Steckenrider is controllable for another two seasons beyond that. At the same time, though, the Marlins aren’t seen as likely to do much winning over the next three or four years; they’re mired in a full teardown that began this offseason with trades of Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna. Trading Barraclough and Conley in particular could make a lot of sense if they’re able to net some young talent who could contribute during their next contending season.
Of the aforementioned hurlers, Barraclough seems likely to bring back the most hefty return. The righty has been a revelation this season, pitching to a sub-1.00 ERA with a typically high 4.21 BB/9 and a K/9 of 9.66. Since stepping into the closer role for the Marlins earlier this year, he’s converted all seven save opportunities and has yet to allow a run. Barraclough (along with Steckenrider) has already been connected to the Indians this offseason.
For what it’s worth, the Dodgers have one of the best farm systems in baseball, with MLB.com ranking them tenth out of 30 MLB teams. While it seems unlikely that they’d part with top prospects Alex Verdugo or Keibert Ruiz in a trade for one of the aforementioned Marlins arms, it’s worth noting that elite prospects have changed hands in recent years when a top-flight reliever becomes available, and the sheer amount of team control left on the contracts of Barraclough, Steckenrider and Conley could prove an enticing reason to consider all possible angles.
Notable International Prospect Signings
With the 2018-19 international signing period kicking off today, there will be dozens of six- and seven-figure bonuses handed out to teenage prospects, primarily out of Latin America, filtering in throughout the day today. Many of these have been in the works for quite some time, as is reflected by the fact that most of the top players’ destinations and signing bonuses have been previously reported/projected (and by the fact that the top agreements will all be reported in one swift avalanche today).
We’ll keep track of the notable National League signings here and the notable American League signings in a separate post. Note that you can read up on each of these players with the dedicated international coverage available from Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required), Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com and Kiley McDaniel & Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, each of whom has scouting info on the top echelon of international amateurs. Badler is also tracking the all of the signings from all 30 teams.
Onto some of the more notable signings…
West Notes: Beltre, Rangers, Ohtani, Giants, Buehler
Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre spoke about his future Saturday, telling Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News and other reporters that he’s unsure if he’ll return in 2019. But if Beltre does come back for what would be his age-40 season, the impending free agent only wants to play for the Rangers. “If I’m going to play next year, I want it to be here,” Beltre said. “Right now, that’s a big if. But, if I play, I think I owe it to these fans. And I want to retire as a Ranger.” The Rangers seem open to welcoming back Beltre if he continues playing, as general manager Jon Daniels said that “having him finish his career here would be an honor.” In the meantime, it’s possible Beltre will finish this season on a playoff contender if Daniels trades him. However, given that Beltre has 10-and-5 rights, he could stand in the way of a deal.
- Angels star Shohei Ohtani took part in a simulated game consisting of 10 at-bats on Saturday, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. “It all went well. It’s definitely a positive step for him,” said manager Mike Scioscia, leading Fletcher to posit that Ohtani could be within a week of returning if he doesn’t suffer any setbacks. Damage in Ohtani’s ulnar collateral ligament has kept the two-way standout off the field since early June, and he might not pitch again this season as a result. It appears the 23-year-old rookie will factor into the Angels’ offense again in 2018, though, and that would be a boon for the club. Before going on the DL on June 8, Ohtani slashed an excellent .289/.372/.535 with six home runs in 129 plate appearances.
- As the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approaches, staying under the $197MM competitive-balance tax figure is “a target, not a mandate” for the Giants, according to general manager Bobby Evans (via John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle). At the moment, the Giants are under the threshold, per Evans. If they stay under it through the end of the season, the Giants would lower their tax rate from 50 percent to 20 percent in time for the offseason, when rumored target Bryce Harper is scheduled to be among the majors’ available free agents. Indeed, “there are a lot of incentives to stay below it,” Evans added. But it could be difficult, Shea explains, especially if the Giants remain in playoff contention around the deadline. They entered Saturday at 43-40, putting them just 1 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot.
- Dodgers rookie righty Walker Buehler had worked exclusively as a starter this year until Thursday, when he came out of the bullpen in his return from the disabled list. That outing – Buehler’s first with the Dodgers since June 8 – didn’t go well, and after yielding five earned runs over an inning against the Cubs, LA optioned him to the Single-A level on Friday. Now, Buehler will have to make a minimum of two minor league rehab starts before returning to the Dodgers’ rotation, manager Dave Roberts told reporters, including Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. The Dodgers’ plan was for Buehler to work three innings Thursday in lieu of a rehab assignment, but that blew up in their faces.
Latest On Manny Machado
Manny Machado will be the most oft-discussed player in baseball from now until the point that he’s ultimately traded, and Orioles general manager Dan Duquette said for the second time this month that interest in the free-agent-to-be is greater than it was when the O’s made him available in the offseason (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com).
“There are some teams that are in the market for help on the left side of the infield and some are looking for a shortstop and some are looking for a third baseman,” said Duquette. The asking price on Machado, of course, figures to be fairly steep — and the sheer volume of teams who could show interest can only help the Orioles. Kubatko notes that controllable starting pitching is a known priority for the Orioles, as is finding a potential replacement for Machado.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that, among the teams with interest in Machado, the Dodgers are perceived by some in the industry as the favorites to land Machado. Los Angeles has gone 26-10 to surge back up the ranks in the National League West, and they’ve done so without the benefit of star young shortstop Corey Seager, whose season ended back in May when he required Tommy John surgery. Machado could step into that void, of course, and provide a massive upgrade at the plate while freeing Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez to bounce around the diamond.
Per Nightengale, the O’s have placed a heavy focus on scouting the Dodgers’ minor league system. However, there are numerous other clubs at least keeping tabs on Machado, per the report, including the Phillies, the Diamondbacks and the Cardinals. There’s also industry speculation that the NL Central-leading Brewers could jump into the mix, given their aggressive offseason, an expected tight race in the division and the struggles of Orlando Arcia. And, of course, other clubs could yet emerge as potential suitors. The Angels, for instance, learned today that they’ve likely lost Zack Cozart for the rest of the year due to a torn labrum in his left shoulder that will require surgery.
One of those clubs, the Diamondbacks, has a particularly compelling case to add Machado to its ranks, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic explores. With A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin up for free agency following the season and Paul Goldschmidt only controlled through 2019, Piecoro argues that the Diamondbacks will never have a better chance to win with this core of players than they do right now. The front office has already been aggressive in acquiring Brad Boxberger, Jon Jay and Steven Souza Jr. (even if that move has yet to pay dividends), and it would indeed seem curious to take the metaphorical foot off the gas pedal now.
The Machado sweepstakes, clearly, will be one of the more intriguing storylines to follow this summer and again in free agency. There’s no clear timetable for when a trade might come together, but Duquette didn’t mince words when acknowledging that his club has “declared as sellers” and suggesting that there’s a “more defined” market for Machado this time around. Nightengale does note, though, that one Orioles exec predicted that based on the manner in which the market is coming together, it’s possible that Machado could be moved before the All-Star break.
Doosan Bears Sign Scott Van Slyke
Korea’s Doosan Bears have agreed to sign former MLB outfielder Scott Van Slyke, per a team announcement (Korean link; h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net, on Twitter). He’ll earn a $320K salary.
Van Slyke, 31, had a six-year run in the majors with the Dodgers. But his opportunities and productivity trailed off over the course of that span. All told, he carries a .242/.326/.417 slash line with 29 home runs in 869 MLB plate appearances.
Heading into the present season, Van Slyke joined the Marlins on a minors pact. It seemed he’d have a solid shot at breaking back into the majors at some point, but that hasn’t yet come to pass. He has, however, hit well at Triple-A, producing a .248/.354/.467 batting line and swatting eight long balls in 162 trips to the plate.
In that most recent work, Van Slyke has produced well against right-handed pitching at the highest level of the minors. During his time in the bigs, though, he carried yawning platoon splits, with a .146 point spread between his career OPS marks against lefties and righties.
Trade Rumors: Britton, Red Sox, Beltre, Dodgers, Boyd
We’re still over a month away from the trade deadline but the hot stove is already percolating. Here’s some trade buzz from around the majors…
- The Red Sox are one of several teams who are scouting Orioles southpaw Zach Britton, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reports. Craig Kimbrel wouldn’t be in any danger of losing his closing job if Britton joined the Sox, though Britton would be a setup man and big left-handed weapon out of Boston’s pen. Brian Johnson is currently the only lefty reliever on the 25-man roster, though Bobby Poyner (currently in Triple-A) has posted some solid results when pitching for the big league team. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored Britton’s value as a trade candidate, noting that virtually every contender will, or should, be monitoring Britton as he continues his return from offseason Achilles surgery.
- Also from Cafardo, he adds the Red Sox and Braves to the list of teams with some interest in veteran third baseman Adrian Beltre. With Rafael Devers on Boston’s big league roster and Braves top prospect Austin Riley looming at Triple-A, both teams could make sense for a short-term upgrade like Beltre, who is only signed through this season. While Beltre seems like a natural trade chip for a Rangers team that is well out of contention, there still remains some speculation as to whether or not Texas will actually move him, as the team heavily values Beltre’s leadership and wants him on the roster in 2019. Beltre also has no-trade protection via 10-and-5 rights. Still, the Rangers are at least shopping Beltre (and other players) to gauge trade interest, and it can’t hurt that multiple contenders could be in the market for third base help.
- The Dodgers will be looking for relief help but otherwise don’t have any really obvious areas of need on their roster, Ken Rosenthal notes in a FOXSports.com video report. This will allow the Dodgers to pursue the best players available on the trade market and “be picky” if they don’t like the asking price for a big-name rental player (i.e. Manny Machado).
- Left-hander Matthew Boyd “is one of the Tigers‘ most coveted players in trade talks,” MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi writes. Even after a rough outing against Cleveland today, Boyd still has solid overall numbers this season, with a 4.15 ERA and 7.54 K/9 through 82 1/3 innings. Advanced metrics aren’t nearly as high on Boyd’s work, however, so Detroit could explore a trade when Boyd is at his peak value, even though he is just 27 and isn’t eligible for arbitration until this winter. Morosi speculates that the Mariners could target Boyd based on their past attempt to trade for him in the 2016-17 offseason, when GM Jerry Dipoto offered Taijuan Walker and prospects to the Tigers for Boyd and J.D. Martinez.
Heyman’s Latest: O’s, Machado, Dodgers, Tribe, Marlins, Herrera, Taillon
Here’s the latest from FRSBaseball.com’s Jon Heyman…
- The Dodgers will continue to monitor Manny Machado‘s availability, as L.A. still has interest in the star shortstop. Machado and the Dodgers have been linked in trade rumors ever since Corey Seager was lost for the season, and with Los Angeles getting back into the postseason hunt after an early-season slump, Machado continues to look like a logical trade candidate.
- The Indians are looking for the bullpen help, and they are one of multiple teams who have been in touch with the Marlins about Kyle Barraclough and Drew Steckenrider. Cleveland’s relief corps has been a major weak spot for the team, and though Andrew Miller will eventually be back from the DL, it isn’t any surprise that the Tribe is looking for further upgrades. Barraclough (who took over as Miami’s closer earlier this month) and Steckenrider are both having good seasons, though both have exhibited some control issues. The Marlins are “open for business” in discussing virtually everyone on the roster, though they’re less likely to deal young, controllable players like Barraclough and Steckenrider for anything but a large return. Beyond the bullpen, Heyman also thinks the Tribe could look for a right-handed bat for the bench.
- The Braves were one of the teams interested in Kelvin Herrera before the Royals dealt the reliever to the Nationals. Kansas City simply “saw the Nats as a better match” for a trade, and as Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos implied in a podcast appearance earlier this week, it seems like Atlanta wasn’t willing to meet the Royals’ asking price. It remains to be seen how this decision could impact the NL East race, as the Braves not only saw Herrera join a division rival, but their own closer (Arodys Vizcaino) on the disabled list today. Heyman does speculate about one silver lining for the Braves, however, as the fact that they’ve already had some talks with the Royals could help lay groundwork for a Mike Moustakas trade. Overall, Heyman notes that the Braves would prefer to wait before making any big deals, as the team still isn’t quite sure what will end up being its biggest deadline need.
- More on Herrera, as Heyman reports that the Astros didn’t make a play for the right-hander.
- There is “no chance” that the Pirates would trade Jameson Taillon, a source tells Heyman. Pittsburgh could yet decide to move some veterans at the deadline but Taillon seems untouchable, given his good season and four remaining years of team control.
- The Pirates had some discussions with Andrew McCutchen about a longer-term extension following the outfielder’s MVP season in 2013. At the time, McCutchen was just two years into what ended up being (thanks to a club option) a seven-year, $65.25MM deal with the Bucs. According to Heyman, McCutchen had some regret about signing that deal, which kept him from hitting the open market after the 2015 season and ended up being an enormous bargain for Pittsburgh. Further extension talks didn’t go far, however, as McCutchen and his team made mention of Joey Votto‘s ten-year, $225MM deal with the Reds as a potential comparable.
Dodgers Activate Clayton Kershaw
The Dodgers announced today that they’ve officially activated legendary southpaw Clayton Kershaw from the disabled list, optioning lefty Adam Liberatore to Triple-A Oklahoma City.
It was reported yesterday that Kershaw was set to forego a rehab assignment and start tonight’s game. The three-time Cy Young Award-winner has only made eight starts to date this season, which haven’t been quite on par with his usual standards; the lefty owns a 3.47 FIP in 2018 to go with 53 strikeouts against 11 walks in 49 innings. While still respectable, that FIP would be Kershaw’s highest mark since his rookie season in 2008.
The 30-year-old will finally get a chance to re-establish his value in advance of a potential bout with free agency. It’s widely-known that Kershaw can opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his contract in order to test the open market, but a hurler who has long been known as the most dominant in the game suddenly has an injury reputation after missing time in each of the past three seasons with back issues. How he performs the rest of the season and whether he stays healthy will both have an impact on whether the future Hall of Famer ends up a free agent at the end of the year.
Liberatore has spent his entire major-league career with the Dodgers, pitching in parts of each season since his debut in 2015. He owns a lifetime ERA of 3.55 in the majors to go along with 9.44 K/9 and 3.65 BB/9. His control appears to have gotten away from him this season, however, as that walk rate has spiked to 5.54 BB/9 (though in an admittedly small 13-inning sample size). Liberatore has pitched fewer than one inning in eight of his 17 appearances on the season.