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Mariners Notes: Crawford, Canzone, Saucedo, Santos, Woo

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The Mariners’ 8-1 win over the Athletics on Friday marked Seattle’s fourth-highest run total of the season, in a positive sign for the club’s search for lineup consistency.  With offense generally down around the league, the Mariners’ 98 wRC+ still puts them ahead of 11 other teams, but naturally there’s still plenty of room for improvement.  The Mariners’ 28.7% strikeout total is the highest in MLB, and they also rank 24th of 30 clubs in both batting average (.225) and runs (147).

Some lineup reinforcements could be on the way, as shortstop J.P. Crawford is close to beginning a minor league rehab assignment.  Mariners GM Justin Hollander told reporters (including Adam Jude of the Seattle Times) that Crawford could possibly start the assignment this very weekend, as Crawford completed batting practice and a full fielding drill prior to yesterday’s game.  Crawford hasn’t played since April 23 due to an oblique strain, and given how oblique problems often have a wide range of recovery times, it’s a good sign that Crawford appears better after such a relatively short period.

Crawford wasn’t exactly off to a roaring start prior to his injury, as he had only a .198/.296/.302 slash line in his first 98 plate appearances.  A .227 BABIP could be largely responsible for those numbers, though Crawford’s Isolated Power metric was down to .105 — much more akin to his career norms before last season’s big spike up to 172.  The shortstop enjoyed the best offensive season of his career in 2023, hitting .266/.380/.438 with 19 homers and a league-best 94 walks over 638 PA, translating to an excellent 134 wRC+.

Albeit in a much smaller sample size, Dominic Canzone had a comparable 133 wRC+ in 35 PA this season before hitting the injured list himself with a left AC joint sprain.  Canzone suffered the injury crashing into the outfield wall while making a catch in the Mariners’ 3-2 loss to the Cubs on April 14, so it looks like he’ll miss just over a month since the outfielder is starting a Triple-A rehab assignment today.  Hollander said the plan is for Canzone to play four minor league games before being evaluated for a possible activation from the 10-day IL.

Tayler Saucedo was placed on the 15-day IL last Wednesday due to a hyper-extended right knee, but Hollander said Saucedo’s MRI results suggested that the left-hander might only miss the minimum 15 days.  The news isn’t as good for another pitcher on Seattle’s injured list, as Gregory Santos’ recovery timeline has now been stretched into July.  Santos has yet to pitch this season due to a lat strain and was already on the 60-day IL, so he wouldn’t have been able to pitch until late May at the earliest.

The initial expectation was that Santos would be able to return either immediately once that 60-day window was up, or perhaps a few days or a week afterwards.  However, Hollander said that Santos’ throwing program was recently shut down, and the reliever has only recently started throwing again in the 60-90 foot range.

Bryan Woo was another pitcher who hadn’t yet taken the hill in 2024, as a bout of elbow inflammation in Spring Training forced Woo onto the 15-day IL to begin the season.  Woo made his return yesterday against Oakland and looked very sharp in allowing only one hit and one walk over 4 1/3 shutout innings, but he had to make an early exit due to right forearm tightness.

Despite the ominous-sounding nature of a forearm issue, Woo and M’s manager Scott Servais told MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer and other media that the removal was precautionary, and that Woo is expected to make his next start.  Woo suggested that “it was just sitting for a long time” during an extended bottom of the fourth inning, when the Mariners scored five runs.

“It was a long inning. You sit for that long, especially coming back from injuries, like it gets kind of cold and it’s kind of hard to get it going again. So it’s kind of been like a theme throughout the rehab process,” Woo said.

Matt Brash Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Mariners right-hander Matt Brash underwent Tommy John surgery on Wednesday, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times on X, relaying word from general manager Justin Hollander. The righty had his ligament repaired and a brace installed, with the club expecting a return in June of next year, per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com on X.

It’s obviously an unfortunate blow for both the Mariners and Brash, as the righty had been so impressive over the past two years. He was a highly-touted starting prospect while climbing through the minors, but a lack of control seemed to be pushing him towards a relief role, which is how things have played out in the majors thus far.

He debuted in 2022 with five starts but had a 7.65 earned run average in those, walking 17.9% of batters faced. He was sent back down to the minors and moved to a bullpen role. He re-emerged with the big league club in July and posted a 2.35 ERA in 30 2/3 innings the rest of the way. His 12.6% walk rate was still on the high side but he was able to punch out 33.9% of opponents.

2023 saw him continue to establish himself as a bonafide big league reliever and even move into a leverage role for the Mariners. He put up a 3.06 ERA last year across 78 appearances. He dropped his walk rate to 9.4% while still getting punchouts 34.7% of the time. He recorded four saves and 24 holds in the process.

Here in 2024, it’s been mostly ominous. It was reported at the end of February that Brash was potentially looking at a lengthy absence, but he was cleared to resume throwing just a few days later. The bad news returned at the end of April when his progress was shut down. He was transferred to the 60-day injured list earlier this week and now the worries of a lengthy absence have come to fruition.

He will now spend the rest of this year and a chunk of 2025 rehabbing from the surgery, forcing the club to proceed without him. Andrés Muñoz is in the closer’s role while pitchers like Ryne Stanek and Gabe Speier lead the setup crew.

Brash came into 2024 with one year and 121 days of service time. That will give him a borderline chance at qualifying for arbitration this winter as a Super Two player. Looking at recent history, that amount of service would have been sufficient three times since 2009, though all three of those occured in the five most recent seasons.

Mariners Designate Tyson Miller For Assignment

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The Mariners announced that Bryan Woo has been reinstated from the injured list, with fellow righty Tyson Miller designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Miller, 28, signed a minor league deal with the M’s in the offseason and was selected to the big club early in April. He has since thrown 11 2/3 innings over nine appearances with a 3.09 earned run average. He has a 26.7% strikeout rate and 2.2% walk rate. He’s been helped a bit by a .207 batting average on balls in play but his 3.85 FIP and 2.98 SIERA still suggest he’s been pretty good.

That’s a small sample size but it’s still a bit surprising that he’s been bumped off the roster, especially when the Mariners could have optioned someone like Cody Bolton or Eduard Bazardo. For whatever reason, Miller has been bumped off instead. Since he’s out of options, he had to be removed from the 40-man entirely.

The M’s will now have a week to trade Miller or pass him through waivers. The fact that he’s out of options will tamp down interest somewhat, but his decent numbers will be appealing. His 5.91 ERA in his career isn’t especially impressive but that’s in just 42 2/3 innings scattered over a five-year period. Since the start of 2021, he has a 3.85 ERA in 198 2/3 Triple-A innings, striking out 27.7% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 9.7% rate.

Miller has a previous career outright and will therefore have the right to elect free agency if he were to pass through waivers unclaimed.

Mariners Select Kirby Snead

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The Mariners announced a series of roster moves today, selecting the contract of left-hander Kirby Snead and reinstated right-hander Eduard Bazardo from the injured list. In corresponding moves, left-hander Tayler Saucedo was placed on the 15-day IL due to right knee hyperextension and right-hander Emerson Hancock was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma. To open a 40-man spot for Snead, righty Matt Brash was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Snead, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Mariners in the winter. He reported to Triple-A and has made 12 appearances at that level so far this year with a 2.92 earned run average. That’s supported by a 27.7% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate and a huge 63.3% ground ball rate.

The southpaw has had some encouraging results in the minors before, but has struggled in the majors. He currently has a career ERA of 5.20 in the big leagues, tossing 64 innings over the previous three seasons between the Blue Jays and Athletics. He was outrighted by Oakland in October, which led to his deal with the Mariners.

With Saucedo going on the IL, Snead will step in as the club’s second lefty reliever alongside Gabe Speier. Snead is out of options and can’t be easily sent back down to the minors down the line. However, he has less than two years of service time and could therefore be cheaply retained into the future if he holds onto his roster spot all year.

Hancock, 25 this month, came into the year as the club’s sixth starter behind Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. But Woo began the year on the injured list due to right medial elbow inflammation, which opened a rotation spot for Hancock.

Through seven starts, Hancock has a 5.24 ERA with a tepid 15.4% strikeout rate. Woo has been on a rehab assignment of late, having already made three starts with the most recent one being a five-inning outing on Saturday. Hancock’s option appears to pave the way for Woo to be reinstated at some point in the near future.

As for Brash, he’s been on the 15-day IL all year due to right elbow inflammation. This transfer is backdated to his initial IL placement, meaning he can’t be reinstated until late May. That doesn’t seem to be a possibility anyway, as he was shut down at the end of April and there haven’t been any substantive updates on his condition since then.

AL West Notes: Kirby, Rojas, Langford, Astros

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Mariners right-hander George Kirby underwent an MRI exam on his right knee yesterday, manager Scott Servais told reporters (including Adam Jude of the Seattle Times) prior to last night’s game against Houston. Servais didn’t provide details on the results of Kirby’s MRI but made clear that the imaging was precautionary and expressed optimism that Kirby will make be ready to make his next start. The righty was pulled from his start on Friday after just 88 pitches due to the issue, though following that game Kirby noted that his knee had been “bugging” him for the “past couple of weeks.” He’s pitched through it to this point, however, and like Servais suggested that he wasn’t concerned about the problem.

That’s surely a relief for the Mariners, Kirby has gotten off to a strong start this year. While his 3.76 ERA is actually just below league average by measure of ERA+, he currently sports a career-best 26.3% strikeout rate to go along with a 2.6% walk rate, while his 65.4% strand rate is much lower than is sustainable through seven starts. Given that, it’s no surprise that Kirby has some of the best peripheral numbers in the league with a 2.08 FIP, a 2.84 xERA, a 3.03 SIERA and a 3.10 xFIP.

That type of production is extremely hard to replace, and Mariners fans are surely hoping that Kirby’s knee issue is as minor as he and the team believe it to be. Should Kirby require a trip to the IL, the Mariners could turn to struggling Triple-A starter Levi Stoudt or perhaps non-roster veteran Dallas Keuchel to fill out the rotation while youngster Bryan Woo finishes up a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level.

More from around the AL West…

  • Sticking with the Mariners, Servais indicated to reporters (including Jude) yesterday that the club is hoping to get infielder Josh Rojas additional at-bats going forward. Rojas has gotten off to a hot start this year as part of a platoon with Luis Urias at third base, slashing .338/.420/.535 in 82 trips to the plate. Per Servais, the solution to that could be moving Rojas to left field on days that Urias is playing the hot corner. With Dominic Canzone on the injured list, Seattle has primarily relied on Luke Raley and Dylan Moore in left this season but neither has taken hold of the position with particularly strong offensive numbers, so affording more playing time to Rojas and Urias could be a way to bolster an offense that ranks 22nd in the majors with a 96 wRC+, including a 58 wRC+ in left field.
  • Rangers youngster Wyatt Langford entered the season as a widely-speculated AL Rookie of the Year candidate after he fought his way onto the Opening Day roster with an incredible Spring Training, but he’s scuffled somewhat in the early going this season with a wRC+ of just 68 and an ISO of just .069 that puts him in the bottom five among all qualified outfielders this year in terms of power production. Now, however, Langford may be dealing with an injury on top of his struggles at the plate after he exited last night’s game with tightness in his right hamstring, as noted Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today. Should Langford require a trip to the IL, the club would likely turn to veteran outfielder Travis Jankowski to fill out the lineup in his absence.
  • Astros outfielder Chas McCormick has only been on the injured list for a few days, but manager Joe Espada told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that he is already making good progress in his rehab from a right hamstring issue. Per Espada, McCormick has begun running and is nearing the point where he’ll be able to begin batting practice, adding that the club hopes to get the 29-year-old out for a minor league rehab assignment “pretty soon.” McCormick scuffled at the plate to open the season this year but was one of the club’s strongest contributors in 2023, when he slashed .273/.353/.489 in 115 games.
  • Sticking with the Astros, Espada also provided an update to reporters (including McTaggart) about injured right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers last pitched in the majors in late 2022 but has now progressed to throwing off a mound in his rehab process. It’s a major step for McCullers, who has made just eight starts since the end of the 2021 postseason due to flexor tendon issues. When healthy enough to take the mound, McCullers has been an impact starter for the Astros with a 2.96 ERA and 3.51 FIP in 36 starts from 2021-22. The right-hander isn’t expecting to return to action until later this summer, though yesterday’s news appears to indicate he remains on track to pitch for the club this season.

Mariners “Indefinitely” Shut Down Matt Brash’s Rehab

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Mariners right-hander Matt Brash has been shut down indefinitely from his rehab process, GM Justin Hollander told reporters this evening (including Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times). The righty had thrown yesterday ahead of a rehab assignment that was expected to begin this weekend, though now he’ll visit Dr. Keith Meister to determine next steps.

Brash, 26 next month, was shut down due to elbow inflammation early in Spring Training amid concerns that he may miss the entire 2024 season. Following his diagnosis with elbow inflammation, however, Brash was cleared to resume throwing in early March and has been rehabbing the injury ever since. Per Hollander, that injury has taken a turn for the worse in recent days as he’s begun to feel “tightness” in the aftermath of bullpen sessions that has begun to last longer after each throwing session.

The ominous update is a potentially brutal blow for the Seattle bullpen, which has been without Brash and fellow set-up man Gregory Santos all season. Brash made his debut with the Mariners as a starter back in 2022 but struggled in the role and was quickly moved to the bullpen, where he’s been nothing short of dominant ever since. Across 112 relief innings in his career, the flamethrower has posted a sterling 2.84 ERA with an even better 2.18 FIP eye-popping 34.5% strikeout rate in 101 1/3 innings of work. That’s good for the ninth-highest strikeout rate and second-lowest FIP of any reliever with at least 80 innings of work over the past two seasons.

Given Brash’s utter dominance out of the bullpen throughout his career, he was all but certain to act as the primary set-up man to closer Andres Munoz this season, forming perhaps the strongest one-two punch of relievers in the majors. Those plans will have to be put on hold for an uncertain amount of time, however, with Brash expected to meet with Meister for the second time this season in the coming days. Seattle has relied on Ryne Stanek and Gabe Speier to set up for Munoz in the absence of Brash and Santos.

While elbow issues of any kind bring to mind the possibility of Tommy John surgery for many fans, there’s been no indication of damage to Brash’s UCL to this point, however and it won’t be clear exactly what the prognosis is for Brash and what his timetable for return could look like until he meets with Meister. With all that said, it seems fair to expect the Mariners to be without their top set-up man for quite some time given the right-hander’s difficulties bouncing back between throwing sessions nearly two months after being cleared to resume a throwing program.

If there’s any silver lining for Mariners fans, it’s that the club’s bullpen has been performing just fine even without Brash in the mix. Seattle relievers rank first in the majors with a 2.40 ERA this season while they rank eighth with a 24.9% strikeout rate and ninth with a 3.68 FIP. That strong performance has involved almost universally solid numbers from the club’s relief corps: among the 11 players the club has used out of the bullpen so far this season, only right-hander Collin Snider and infielder Josh Rojas (the latter of whom pitched in a pair of blowout games early in the season) have posted an ERA above 3.09 entering play today. If the club’s relief corps can remain even close to that effective in the coming months, it’s possible the Mariners won’t miss Brash as much as it might seem on the surface even in the event of an extended absence.

Mariners Select Leo Rivas, Place J.P. Crawford On Injured List

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The Mariners have placed shortstop J.P. Crawford on the 10-day injured list with a right oblique strain, per a team announcement. Infielder Leo Rivas’ contract has been selected from Triple-A Tacoma, and he’ll take Crawford’s spot on the roster. Righty Gregory Santos was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move. More specifically, Crawford tells Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that he’s dealing with a Grade 1 strain (X link).

Crawford was scratched from yesterday’s game after experiencing tightness in his right oblique. He was sent for an MRI that revealed the strain. The Mariners haven’t provided a timetable for his return, but even Grade 1 strains — the least severe — of an oblique can sideline players for upwards of a month. Manager Scott Servais said prior to today’s game that utilityman Dylan Moore will be in line for the bulk of the shortstop reps while Crawford is on the shelf (X link via Divish).

The timing of Crawford’s injury is unfortunate. He’d gotten out to a slow start in 2024 but had just begun to turn the tides, hitting safely in nine of his past ten games and batting .275/.383/.360 during that span. He’s still hitting just .198/.296/.302 on the whole but had clearly been trending in the right direction prior to sustaining the injury.

Crawford’s absence will cost the Mariners their everyday leadoff man and shortstop. He’s emerged as a consistent presence atop the lineup, slashing .262/.352/.384 from 2021-23 while playing sound defense at shortstop (where he won a Gold Glove in 2020). Swapping him out for the 31-year-old Moore is likely a downgrade on both sides of the ball.

While Moore has plenty of experience at shortstop — and at nearly every position on the diamond — it’s his weakest position by measure of both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average. Moore is a .217/.344/.398 hitter since 2022 (118 wRC+), but that production has come with the benefit of being heavily platooned; he won’t have that luxury in an everyday role and figures to face plenty of right-handers, against whom he’s just a .198/.302/.368 hitter.

Rivas, 26, is receiving his first call to the bigs. The Mariners are his third career organization, as he was originally signed by the Angels as a teenager and has also spent time with the Reds. He’s out to a strong start in Triple-A Tacoma, where he’s posted a .308/.422/.462 slash in 66 trips to the plate. Getting on base has never been an issue for Rivas in the minors, where he touts a career .378 OBP. He lacks power, however, evidenced by a career-high of seven homers and a lifetime .106 ISO (slugging minus average). Divish notes that Servais touted Rivas’ defense multiple times as a reason that he was given the call in the wake of Crawford’s injury.

Mariners Notes: Urias, Woo, Miller

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Mariners infielder Luis Urias exited last night’s game after taking a 94 mph fastball of his left wrist, but the Mariners announced that he’s been diagnosed with a contusion. X-rays on the wrist were negative, per MLB.com, and he’ll be considered day-to-day for the time being.

The 26-year-old Urias has gotten out to a .160/.300/.400 start this season, striking out 11 times in 30 plate appearances (36.7%) — an uncharacteristically high rate for a player who entered the season with a career 21.6% strikeout rate.

The Mariners entered the season envisioning a platoon of the righty-swinging Urias and lefty-hitting Josh Rojas — a more contact-oriented pairing than the more boom-or-bust nature of since-traded third baseman Eugenio Suarez. Rojas has been one of the team’s bright spots, hitting .311/.392/.422 (148 wRC+) in 51 trips to the plate thus far. Only four of those plate appearances have come against lefties, but if Urias is sidelined for a bit, Rojas could get some more reps against southpaws. Seattle doesn’t have many lefty opponents on the immediate horizon, though they’re slated to face Andrew Heaney on Thursday.

Elsewhere on the injury front, the M’s are getting closer to welcoming righty Bryan Woo back to the staff. The right-hander made his first minor league rehab appearance with Triple-A Tacoma last night, and as broadcaster Mike Curto points out, pitched three perfect innings while fanning five of his nine opponents.

Woo’s fastball ranged from 91-95 mph, per Curto, which is down from last year when he averaged 95.2 mph on his heater. That said, it’s also the first rehab start for a right-hander who’s yet to pitch this season while waiting for some elbow inflammation to calm down, so that’s not necessarily a massive red flag just yet. It’d be natural if he built closer to that velocity as he continued to ramp up over what could be multiple rehab starts between now and his activation.

In place of Woo in the rotation, Seattle has been relying on former top-10 pick Emerson Hancock, who’s posted a 6.10 ERA through four starts, although the vast majority of the damage came in one tough outing against the Brewers. Hancock has yielded a combined seven earned runs through 17 1/3 innings in his other three appearances but was lit up for an eight spot in just 3 1/3 innings that day. He’s sporting a well below-average 16.7% strikeout rate but also an exceptional 3.3% walk rate. Hancock is the least established arm in Seattle’s rotation, trailing Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller — so he’s likely to be the odd man out if everyone’s healthy when Woo returns.

Miller, in particular, has impressed the Mariners this year. He’s pitched to an electric 1.85 ERA with a 26.1% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in 24 2/3 innings. Miller recently chatted with Adam Jude of the Seattle Times about his incorporation of a new splitter into his repertoire — a pitch that’s been flat-out dominant for the 25-year-old righty so far. Miller has thrown his new pitch at a 19.4% clip this season, finishing off 24 plate appearances with the pitch. Those 24 plate appearances have resulted in 21 outs — eight of them strikeouts — and yielded only three singles. Both Gilbert and Kirby began throwing splitters last season, and Miller has leaned on his teammates for advice and guidance when looking to master his new pitch.

“It kind of has a mind of its own sometimes, but I’ve been able to command it really well,” Miller tells Jude of his new weapon. “So, I’m really happy with it and I think it’s opened up a lot of things for me [against] lefties and righties.”

Odell Jones Passes Away

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Former big league right-hander Odell Jones has passed away, per John Perrotto of Pittsburgh Baseball Now. No cause of death was given for Jones, who was 71.

Born in California in 1953, Jones was signed by the Pirates as an undrafted free agent in 1971. He made his debut with that club in 1975 but tossed just three innings. He got a more proper run of play in the show in 1977, tossing 108 innings for the Bucs in a swing role. He posted an earned run average of 5.08 over 15 starts and 19 relief appearances.

Jones would go on to bounce around the league, serving in various roles. He was traded to the Mariners in 1978 and then back to the Pirates in 1980. He went to the Rangers in the 1982 Rule 5 draft and recorded 10 saves for them in 1983. He later signed with the Orioles and Blue Jays, though he didn’t make it to the majors with the latter club.

For many baseball fans, Jones is best known for one magical night where almost everything lined up for him. He was with the Brewers in 1988 as a 35-year-old journeyman. Teddy Higuera was supposed to start against Cleveland on May 28 but was dealing with some back spasms, per JD Radcliffe of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, which led to Jones taking the ball instead.

Though he wasn’t even the scheduled starter, Jones had the best performance of his life that night. He was perfect through seven, until he issued a one-out walk to Mel Hall. He kept his no-hitter going into the ninth, until it was broken up by a one-out single off the bat of Ron Washington, now the manager of the Angels. Dan Plesac came into to get the final two outs as the Brewers beat Cleveland 2-0 (boxscore here at Baseball Reference).

That was the final big league season for Jones, who finished his career with a 4.42 ERA in 549 1/3 innings over nine different major league seasons. MLBTR joins the baseball world in sending our condolences to the Jones family as well as his fans and friends throughout the game.

Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

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The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

Which of these hot starts are for real?
Orioles 50.39% (4,587 votes)
Yankees 24.18% (2,201 votes)
Brewers 10.41% (948 votes)
Royals 9.70% (883 votes)
Mets 5.32% (484 votes)
Total Votes: 9,103
Which of these cold starts are for real?
Marlins 38.92% (3,900 votes)
Cardinals 21.01% (2,105 votes)
Twins 13.57% (1,360 votes)
Giants 10.24% (1,026 votes)
Astros 10.16% (1,018 votes)
Mariners 6.11% (612 votes)
Total Votes: 10,021
Show all

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