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Four Teams Showing Interest In Jake Odorizzi

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Despite an injury-shortened 2020 season, right-hander Jake Odorizzi is getting a lot of attention on the free agent market.  The Giants, Blue Jays, and Mets have all shown interest in Odorizzi, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required), and the Twins are also keen to re-sign their former All-Star.

Between a back strain, a blister on his throwing hand, and a chest contusion after being struck by an Alex Gordon line drive, Odorizzi ended up pitching only 13 2/3 innings for the Twins last season, and he didn’t see any action in Minnesota’s two games the wild card series.  Nonetheless, Odorizzi still ranked 11th on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, due to both the rather minor nature of those 2020 injuries and his overall solid track record.  Between 2014-19 with the Rays and Twins, Odorizzi averaged 165 innings per season with a 3.88 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 2.79 K/BB rate.

This isn’t the first time Odorizzi has been linked to the Jays, and in fact Toronto was Odorizzi’s predicted landing spot on the MLBTR top 50.  The Blue Jays have already re-signed Robbie Ray and are known to still be looking for pitching to bolster a rotation that doesn’t offer much certainty beyond Hyun Jin Ryu.  San Francisco and New York are also looking to add arms this winter and have also made early pitching moves, both via the qualifying offer — Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman each accepted the one-year, $18.9MM deals to remain with their former teams.

Beyond their shared need of pitching, these are also three of the teams thought to have some extra spending capacity this winter.  The Giants don’t have much salary committed beyond 2021, the Jays have even lesser salary obligations and corporate ownership, and the Mets are expected to spend big (if not “like drunken sailors“) now that Steve Cohen has bought the team.  It wouldn’t be surprising if we hear of these three specific clubs checking in on more or less every available pitcher on the free agent and trade markets as the Giants, Jays, and Mets gauge how to best deploy their financial resources.

Minnesota doesn’t have quite as glaring a pitching need as the other three clubs, since the Twins have Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Randy Dobnak, and a full season of Michael Pineda lined up for their 2020 rotation.  Still, retaining Odorizzi would only further strengthen that depth as the Twins continue to look for the right roster mix to finally break their postseason losing streak.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Rodriguez

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Some notes from the American League East:

  • Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins has spoken previously about making a high-impact addition to the roster. He reiterated that desire when speaking with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link). Toronto indeed plans to make a run at elite talent this offseason, Atkins stated. That’s easier said than done, of course. Atkins also spoke of a desire to improve the team’s overall run prevention numbers. Trevor Bauer is handily the top free agent pitcher on the market, but the Jays could also look for a high-end defender to keep runs off the board.
  • Atkins also addressed the Blue Jays’ 2021 stadium situation during his MLB Network Radio interview (Twitter link). The current hope is the team returns to the Rogers Centre after playing their 2020 home games at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field. Atkins also left open the possibility of starting the 2021 season outside Toronto and returning to their home city at a later date. No one knows what the COVID-19 rate will look like next April, of course, so the organization is preparing “contingency plans” in case international travel continues to be restricted next year.
  • Last offseason, Eduardo Rodríguez expressed some openness to working out an extension with the Red Sox. There’s no indication the sides ever seriously discussed a potential long-term agreement, but Rodríguez is now just one season away from free agency. The Sox should approach the southpaw about an extension this offseason, opines Rob Bradford of WEEI. Rodríguez missed the entire 2020 season due to a scary bout with myocarditis after contracting COVID-19; fortunately, he’s expected to return at full strength in 2021.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Catchers, Rays, McKay, Red Sox, Cora

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The Blue Jays are prepared to make impact moves this offseason, but they’re also preaching patience, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. If they do make a move early – beyond what they’ve done so far – GM Ross Atkins thinks it will be a significant one. Per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, Atkins said, “If we were to move earlier, the impact would be significant. And that doesn’t take us out of significant impact later.” If you’re sensing a theme, you’re not imagining it: The Jays are dreaming big this winter. One of the biggest names available is catcher J.T. Realmuto. The former Phillie would fit the mold described above, but Atkins also says they are “extremely satisfied” with Toronto’s catching situation. And why shouldn’t they be? With Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire and Alejandro Kirk all contributing at the big-league level, they have affordable depth and upside in the form of Kirk, who hit .375/.400/.583 in a 24-at-bat cup-of-coffee in 2020. Still, that depth can be repurposed to make room for a star like Realmuto, especially in the American League where the DH provides opportunity for diversified playing time.

  • Southpaw Brendan McKay remains in Baseball America’s list of top-10 Rays prospects, but J.J. Cooper sounds concerned about McKay’s ability to recover from shoulder surgery on Kyle Glaser’s Baseball America podcast. Cooper notes that Hyun Jin Ryu took about three years to really return to form after a similar surgery. All that said, it’s telling that McKay remains at number six on the list. Until he begins his return and something new emerges, the only confirmed change for McKay is his timeline and his risk profile. The upside that made McKay a top prospect in the first place remains.
  • Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom was given full discretion to make the final hiring decision for the Red Sox managerial opening this offseason. Bringing back Alex Cora wasn’t money in the bank, as it might seem, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The assumption would be that Bloom had the final say-so, but given the unique nature of Cora’s return, and the fact that Bloom didn’t hire Cora the first time around, it would be fair to wonder how much ownership weighed in on the decision. The idea to interview Cora at all, however, was Bloom’s, per Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe. Bloom and general manager Brian O’Halloran met with Cora in an “empty hangar on the airport tarmac.” It was an exhausting but thorough interview by the accounts of those involved, and it didn’t seal the deal. That interview simply entered Cora into the field. Bloom and O’Halloran kept ownership and their assistant general managers involved in the process throughout, but ultimately the decision was left to Bloom, who went with Cora over the Phillies’ integrative baseball performance director Sam Fuld.  Definitely read Speier’s piece for the full account.

Blue Jays Interested In Andrelton Simmons

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The Blue Jays looked into acquiring Andrelton Simmons prior to the August 31 trade deadline, and now that the shortstop is a free agent, veteran reporter Bob Elliott tweets that Toronto is again interested in Simmons’ services.

Simmons ended up playing in only 30 games in 2020, as he spent time on the injured list with a sprained ankle and also opted out of the season on September 22.  Over the small sample size of 127 plate appearances, Simmons hit pretty well (.297/.346/.356, 99 wRC+ and 95 OPS+), and the Jays or any team would happily take that sort of league-average offense in combination with Simmons’ usual excellent defense.  It’s worth noting that 2020 was by far the worst defensive season of Simmons’ career, though it’s fair to assume that his bad ankle contributed to his -1 Outs Above Average, -2 Defensive Runs Saved and +4.0 UZR/150.

That said, Simmons was also bothered by ankle problems in 2019, and has played in only 133 of a possible 222 games over the last two seasons.  In ranking Simmons 17th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, MLBTR projected that the 31-year-old Simmons might have to take just a one-year contract this winter, as teams will be wary of making multi-year offers given his recent injury history and any potential questions about his glovework going forward.

A one-year deal would certainly seem to fit the Blue Jays’ plans, as the team still considers Bo Bichette to be its shortstop of the future but a short-term defensive upgrade is still very much a need.  Signing Simmons would indirectly fix the Jays’ need at third base, since Bichette or Cavan Biggio could play the hot corner while the other plays second base.  Simmons doesn’t have the offensive upside of other rumored Jays shortstop targets as Francisco Lindor or Didi Gregorius, but he might have the lowest price tag — Gregorius is surely looking for a multi-year contract after taking a one-year deal with the Phillies last winter, while the Jays would have to pay a hefty trade return to pry Lindor away from the Indians.

Atkins: Blue Jays Still Active In Starting Pitching Market

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The Blue Jays made one of the first strikes of the offseason when they re-signed southpaw Robbie Ray to a one-year, $8MM deal next week. That certainly doesn’t sound as though it’ll be the only rotation addition for Toronto this winter, however. General manager Ross Atkins told reporters in a Zoom call yesterday that he plans to remain active in his pursuit of rotation upgrades.

“I feel good about acquiring another free agent — I can tell you that — in the starting pitcher market,” Atkins said (Twitter thread via the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm). “That doesn’t mean it will happen, but I feel like we have a chance to do it. … If that doesn’t happen, we’ll turn to the trade market. But we’re working on them simultaneously.”

Toronto already has a fairly deep crop of rotation options. Ray joins Hyun Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, Tanner Roark and Ross Stripling as likely rotation pieces, with depth pieces including Trent Thornton, T.J. Zeuch, Anthony Kay, Jacob Waguespack, Sean Reid-Foley and others. Because they already have a number of options in place to soak up innings, Atkins made clear that his goal in future additions is not to simply bolster that depth but improve the options at the top of the staff. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets Atkins adopted a quality-over-quantity attitude when talking about the club’s continued pitching pursuits.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Jays are committed to acquiring an ace and nothing else. Adding a solid mid-rotation piece would still be prudent, given that each of Ray, Roark, Stripling and Pearson struggled to varying extents in 2020. If the Jays do want to put the pedal to the metal, so to speak, it’s worth noting that Atkins and club president Mark Shapiro came over from the Indians organization where top free agent Trevor Bauer has spent the bulk of his career.

Lower-risk but still-solid options include the likes of Kevin Gausman, Jake Odorizzi, Masahiro Tanaka and Jose Quintana, among many others. Old friend Marcus Stroman is also on the open market, although he had some harsh words for the front office after being traded in 2019. The possibilities on the trade market are too plentiful to count, although the Jays reportedly came close to striking a deal for Pirates righty Joe Musgrove prior to the Aug. 31 trade deadline.

Blue Jays Interested In George Springer, Jackie Bradley Jr.

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Fresh off their first playoff season since 2016, the up-and-coming Blue Jays may be in position for an aggressive winter. With that in mind, they’re already showing interest in a couple of the game’s premier free-agent outfielders. The Astros’ George Springer and longtime Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. are on the Blue Jays’ radar, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (h/t: Tim Kelly of WEEI.com).

[RELATED: Blue Jays Offseason Outlook]

Either Springer or Bradley could take over in center for Toronto, which relied on Randal Grichuk in 2020. Grichuk had a nice offensive season, hitting .273/.312/.481 (112 wRC+) with 12 home runs in 231 plate appearances. However, Grichuk had difficulty in the outfield, where he managed minus-eight Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-three Ultimate Zone Rating. With Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the corners, Toronto could either try to trade Grichuk, who’s due $29MM through 2023, or move him around the outfield/DH if it signs either Springer or Bradley.

Of Springer and Bradley, the former will command the far richer contract. MLBTR predicts a five-year, $125MM contract for Springer, who has blended high-end offense with very good defense throughout his career. There’s a case that the 31-year-old Springer is the No. 1 position player on the open market (it’s him or catcher J.T. Realmuto). With the Astros having given Springer an $18.9MM qualifying offer, which he’s sure to reject, the Blue Jays would have to surrender draft compensation to add him.

Bradley isn’t on Springer’s level, but JBJ has been a valuable player during his career, in which he has combined fantastic defense with passable offense. This past season, although abbreviated, was one of the 30-year-old’s best at the plate. He wound up with a strong line of .283/.364/.450 (119 wRC+), seven homers and five steals across 217 PA. MLBTR expects Bradley to land a two-year, $16MM contract before the 2021 campaign, but the Jays or another team will have to beat out the likes of the Red Sox and Astros, who have shown interest early this offseason.

AL Notes: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mariners

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The Blue Jays brought back Robbie Ray on a one-year, $8MM deal today, but recent history suggests they could still add more to the rotation writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. Davidi notes that the Jays struck early last year in signing Chase Anderson, but that certainly didn’t slow their free agent activity. The Jays do seem to be fairly well stocked in the rotation, with Hyun Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, and Tanner Roark more-or-less guaranteed to hold down rotation spots. Ross Stripling can also hang in the rotation, while Anthony Kay could get a look at some point, as could a whole host of arms from their Triple-A corps. The bullpen is stocked with former starters who can handle multiple innings at a time, which could allow someone like Pearson to see some time out there if he struggles to stay healthy while taking on more innings. That sort of strategy would make room for another arm or two if the Blue Jays like the price.

  • The Red Sox aren’t far enough along in their post-Mookie retooling to make a play for top shelf free agents, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be major players in free agency. With many holes to fill and few roster spots guaranteed, there is a universe in which the Red Sox bid on a number of free agents in the non-premium range. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe runs through the free agent market by position to see where the Red Sox might be shopping. Low-cost veterans for the rotation like Tyler Chatwood, Chris Archer, or Garrett Richards could be on the docket for Boston, per Abraham.
  • Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto said he doesn’t expect next year to provide many starters at all who reach the 170-inning mark, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. That’s certainly an interesting marker, given that it wasn’t that long ago that 200-inning campaigns were considered the standard bearer. It’s true that the Mariners might be more conservative than most in this regard: they’re planning to field a six-man rotation in 2021. In 2019, 51 pitchers crossed the 170-inning threshold. Still, Dipoto’s projection isn’t exactly laughable – nobody registered even 100 innings in the shortened season, and it’s might be unreasonable to expect starters to jump back to pre-COVID standards.

 

Vlad Guerrero Jr. Hopes To Play Third Base in 2021

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has every intention of playing third base in 2021, per Emily Sadler of Sportsnet.ca. Guerrero understands why the move was made, but the decision to move Vlad Jr. to first was in part to protect him from a knee injury that contributed to his struggles at the hot corner in 2018. With the injury behind him, Guerrero apparently has some newfound fervor to turn himself into a viable option at third. Vlad’s defensive marks at first in 2020 were similar to his DRS and UZR at third base in 2019, which is to say they weren’t great (-4 DRS, -13.8 UZR/150). To his credit, Vlad took responsibility for letting himself fall out of shape during the pandemic shutdown.

If Guerrero succeeds, the Blue Jays could broaden their free agent search to include a full-time first baseman or second baseman. Cavan Biggio could move to first base full-time, leaving Toronto to explore pacts with Kolten Wong, DJ LeMahieu, or Cesar Hernandez, suggests Shi Davidi of sportsnet.ca. Of course, that probably presumes not only that the Jays are comfortable with Vlad at third, but that they are comfortable committing to him there for a couple of seasons. They have the designated hitter to play with as well, and Biggio’s versatility serves as a safety net of sorts, but it’s still worth a consideration. Travis Shaw is the incumbent at third, but he’s not likely to return as the full-time starter (.239/.306/.411 in 2020).

Timing might be an even bigger factor than Guerrero’s progress at the third for Toronto, depending on how quickly the hot stove shapes up. There are a number of high-profile third baseman available via trade should the Jays choose to go that route. This year’s platinum glove winner Nolan Arenado could theoretically be available via trade from the Rockies, as is Kris Bryant of the Cubs. Bryant can move around the diamond a bit as well, so even a star acquisition at third doesn’t preclude manager Charlie Montoyo from utilizing Vlad at both infield corners. Beyond LeMahieu, World Series champ Justin Turner is probably the best option at third base, though we here at MLBTR predict Turner to return the Dodgers.

Blue Jays Re-Sign Robbie Ray

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The Blue Jays have announced that free agent left-hander Robbie Ray has been re-signed.  ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link) was the first to report that the southpaw will receive a one-year contract worth $8MM.

It was a tough season overall for Ray, who posted a 6.62 ERA, 11.8 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, and a 7.8 BB/9 (highest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 50 innings pitched) over 51 2/3 combined innings for the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays.  If there is a silver lining, Ray’s numbers over his 20 2/3 innings with the Jays were better than his numbers with the D’Backs, though even a 4.79 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, and 1.7 HR/9 with Toronto is nothing to write home about.

Robbie RayStill, the Jays clearly saw enough to welcome Ray back into the fold and line him up for a spot in Toronto’s rotation.  Passan notes that the Blue Jays intend to use Ray as a starting pitcher, adding him to a rotation mix that includes Hyun Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, Tanner Roark, and Ross Stripling.  It’s safe to assume that the Jays aren’t done exploring the pitching market, given how Ray, Roark, and Stripling all didn’t pitch well in 2020 and Pearson also struggled (and had some injury problems) in his first MLB season.

Home runs have always been an issue for Ray over his seven-year career, though his control went from being a concern to a full-on problem in 2020.  The one constant, however, has been strikeouts, as Ray has an 11.1 career K/9 and even led the league in that category in 2017 (12.1).  That season was Ray’s peak, as he finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting and seemed to be blossoming as a front-of-the-rotation starter.  However, Ray was more okay than spectacular in 2018-19, as his walk totals crept upwards, his ground-ball numbers declined, and batters began to generate more hard contact against his arsenal.

Ray’s fastball velocity also dropped by almost two miles an hour, from a 94.3mph average in 2017 to a 92.4 average in 2019.  His velocity clicked back up to 93.7mph last season, and while there wasn’t much to like about Ray’s Statcast metrics in 2020, he still finished in the 80th percentile in fastball spin rate.

Ray is still only 29, and the one-year commitment gives the Blue Jays a chance to take a longer look at Ray without sacrificing any flexibility in future payrolls.  Toronto is thought to be one of the few teams who has some spending capacity this offseason, and this early strike to re-sign Ray (when most clubs reportedly have yet to even figure out their 2021 budget situations) indicates that the Jays could be aggressive players as they look to build on their wild card berth from the past year.  MLBTR ranked Ray 36th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, correctly predicting him for a one-year contract but for only $6MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

AL Notes: Jays, DJ, Twins, Rosario, O’s, Mancini

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The Yankees signed second baseman DJ LeMahieu to a two-year, $24MM contract going into 2019, but the division-rival Blue Jays were also after him then, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports. Speculatively, with LeMahieu set to hit the open market again, it seems possible the Jays will circle back to him. He greatly upped his value in his two seasons in New York, leading MLBTR to predict he’ll receive a four-year, $68MM payday this offseason. MLBTR even chose Toronto as LeMahieu’s destination this offseason.

Here’s the latest on a couple more AL clubs…

  • The Twins could try to move outfielder Eddie Rosario this offseason, but the 29-year-old “has very little trade value” and is a clear non-tender candidate, Dan Hayes of The Athletic writes. Rosario was an above-average hitter with good power from 2017-20, a 2,002-plate appearance span in which he batted .281/.317/.493 (111 wRC+) with 96 home runs. Still, though, his projected arbitration salary (anywhere from $8.6MM to $12.9MM) could prove too rich for the Twins and all other teams. Minnesota also has two rising outfield prospects in Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, so the team could save Rosario’s money with a non-tender and turn to one or both of those younger players in his stead.
  • With the offseason underway, general manager Mike Elias discussed several Orioles topics with Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com and other reporters Monday. Elias delivered great news on slugger Trey Mancini, who missed all of 2020 after undergoing Stage 3 colon cancer surgery in March. In regards to Mancini’s recovery, Elias said: “It’s going well. We’ve all got our fingers crossed. I think it’s going as well as it possible could have gone since we got that horrible news in March. I think any of us would have traded anything to get to Nov. 2 and be where we’re at with him right now. He’s doing well, he’s getting his strength back, he’s slowly getting into baseball-ish type activities and it’s been incredible.”
  • Elias seems to have high hopes for infielder Yolmer Sanchez, whom the Orioles claimed from the White Sox last week. “He can move around all three infield spots, he’s a plus defender, certainly at second and third, and probably a pretty good shortstop,” observed Elias, who added, “I can also see him battling for a primary job.” Sanchez hasn’t hit much during his career, which started in 2014, but he is indeed a well-regarded defender. He even won an AL Gold Glove at second base in 2019.
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