Kyle Schwarber Drawing Trade Interest
2:05pm: The Giants are also in the mix for Schwarber, tweets Sherman. He adds that the while the Yankees still have interest but at the moment appear to have their focus on other targets.
1:17pm: Despite being on the injured list with a hamstring strain, Nationals slugger Kyle Schwarber is generating trade interest and could be moved sometime today, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman lists the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays as possible trade partners for the Nats.
Schwarber, 28, was the hottest hitter on the planet prior to his injury. His overall .253/.340/.570 line was plenty solid in its own right, but the former No. 4 overall draft pick had gone an a legitimately historic tear to close out June, homering 16 times in 19 games. In his final 21 games before hitting the injured list, Schwarber posted an almost comically dominant .338/.409/.974 batting line over the life of 88 plate appearances.
The Cubs non-tendered Schwarber this past offseason, and he eventually latched on with the Nationals on a one-year, $10MM deal that now looks quite affordable. That deal comes with an $11MM mutual option, but mutual options are little more than accounting measures the vast majority of the time. Generally speaking, if team picks up their end of the option it’s because the player has played well enough to price himself out of that salary (as would be the case with Schwarber, based on his production to date). If the player picks up his end, it’s usually due to poor performance or injury, and the team then declines.
While Schwarber’s hamstring injury obviously hampers his trade value, he’s been running in the outfield recently and could return sometime in mid-August. With the elimination of August trade waivers, the Nationals are faced with the choice of trading him now or keeping him for the remainder of the year then losing him for nothing. They could, of course, make Schwarber a qualifying offer, but that’d nearly double his 2021 salary in the event that he accepted, which the Nationals may not prefer.
The Yankees have been connected to Schwarber for years, so it’s no surprise to see Sherman suggest them as a possibility. That said, with their recent acquisition of Joey Gallo, they’re something of a tough fit. The Yanks now have Gallo, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton already on the roster. It’s possible they could just plug Schwarber into left field in the event that they’re comfortable committing to Gallo in center for the remainder of the year, however. It wouldn’t be an ideal defensive alignment, obviously, but that’d be a balanced and rather terrifying heart of the order for opposing pitchers to navigate.
The Jays and Red Sox present their own problems. Toronto already has a crowded outfield mix featuring Lourdes Gurriel Jr., George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk. They were tied to Nelson Cruz earlier in the month however, and acquiring Cruz could be viewed in a similar lens. He’d give them an option at DH or in left field, pushing Grichuk into a fourth outfield role. Over in Boston, the Red Sox have Alex Verdugo, top prospect Jarren Duran and Hunter Renfroe in the outfield, with J.D. Martinez shoring things up at designated hitter. Schwarber has played all of three games at first base in the minors, for those who are wondering.
Nationals Trade Brad Hand To Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have added another arm to their bullpen mix, announcing the acquisition of veteran lefty Brad Hand from the Nationals in exchange for catcher Riley Adams. Hand, who signed a one-year, $10.5MM deal with the Nats this past offseason, will be a free agent at season’s end.
Hand, 31, has been one of the game’s most effective left-handed relievers in recent years, but his results in 2021 haven’t been as dominant as they were during his time with the Padres and Indians. There have been some signs that his stock had dipped in the eyes of those around the game; Cleveland put him on outright waivers at the end of the 2020 season, hoping a club would claim him and pick up his $10MM option — thus sparing the Indians the $1MM buyout. He went unclaimed and was ultimately bought out. Hand did eventually land a greater guarantee, signing at that aforementioned $10.5MM price point.
Some of the reservations regarding Hand when he was placed on waivers were simply due to financial uncertainty following the absence of fans in 2020, but there was also concern that the lefty’s fastball had dropped by two miles per hour from its peak level. He’s alleviated those concerns in 2021, tacking two miles back onto his heater and averaging 93.3 mph on the season. But Hand’s 23.3 percent strikeout rate is his lowest since moving from the rotation to the bullpen back in 2016, and his 9.9 percent walk rate is a career-high (as a reliever).
Those ungainly strikeout/walk trends notwithstanding, Hand has been a solid reliever for much of the season in Washington. He’s pitched to a 3.59 ERA, upped his ground-ball rate to its highest level since 2018 (39.5 percent) and generally limited hard contact and barreled balls quite well, per Statcast.
It’s been a tough go more recently, as Hand has served up eight runs in his past nine innings — three of which came on an Andrew McCutchen walk-off home run that proved to be something of a backbreaker for the reeling Nationals. Not long after dropping that pivotal game, rumblings about the Nationals perhaps engineering a rare (for them) summer sell-off began to pick up steam, and Hand’s departure (plus the persistent rumors on Max Scherzer and other prominent Nationals players) now make that speculation a reality.
For their half-season investment in Hand, the Nationals will acquire Adams, a 25-year-old backstop who’s already made a very brief MLB debut. That didn’t go particularly well, as he hit just .107/.167/.179, but he also received only 30 plate appearances with the Jays, so it’s impossible to glean much of anything from that limited sample. Adams has spent the remainder of the 2021 season with the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate, drawing plenty of walks and hitting for good power but struggling with strikeouts. In 143 plate appearances, he’s hitting .237/.371/.487 with an 11.2 percent walk rate but a lofty 32.2 percent strikeout rate.
Adams ranked 20th among Jays prospects heading into the season over at MLB.com. He’s already been bumped to No. 15 among Nationals prospects over at FanGraphs, where Eric Longenhagen calls him a bat-first backup option behind the plate. Adams, listed at 6’4″ and 246 pounds, is quite large for a catcher, but the Jays have been committed to developing him there. He’s appeared in just one professional game at first base, where he logged only three innings. If Adams proves he’s capable of sticking behind the dish and providing passable defense, he’ll greatly outperform many of the more modest value projections most scouting reports have placed on him due to concerns over his size and glovework.
Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post first reported Hand had been traded to the Jays (Twitter thread). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported Adams was going back to the Nats.
At Least Eight Teams In The Mix For Max Scherzer
As many as eight clubs are in the mix for Nationals ace and three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (Twitter link). The Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Astros and Mets are all interested, according to Stark, who adds that the Yankees also inquired but were told Scherzer isn’t likely to waive his no-trade rights for a move to New York. That meshes with recent reporting from SNY’s Andy Martino, who wrote earlier this afternoon that Scherzer wouldn’t approve a trade to the Mets (nor would the Nationals be keen on dealing their ace to the current division leaders).
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier in the day that Scherzer preferred a West Coast club, though MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that the ostensible West Coast preference is more about Scherzer wanting to go to a team with a chance to win in 2021 and beyond. Scherzer prefers to go to “a team he could stay with” on a possible extension, per Heyman. Agent Scott Boras indicated as much earlier in the summer, although at the time Boras suggested an extension might be necessary in order for Scherzer to waive his no-trade protection at all. That no longer seems to be the case, but as evidenced by Scherzer’s unwillingness to go to a New York club, the no-trade rights can help him choose his eventual landing spot.
If the Nats are to ultimately trade Scherzer, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the team’s preference is to do so within the next 48 hours. Doing so would leave ample time to sort through the no-trade obstacles and any potential compensation for waiving those rights (e.g. alterations to deferrals, taxes, etc.).
That said, a trade taking place prior to Thursday’s game would put an acquiring team in a tough spot. Scherzer was scratched from his weekend start due to a triceps issue and is set to return to the mound Thursday. A recent MRI came back clean, and any team acquiring Scherzer would obviously have access to the results from that imaging and other testing. Still, a clean MRI may not inspire as much confidence as seeing Scherzer go out and actually perform. If interested clubs prefer to wait until Scherzer has taken the mound, there’d be fewer than 24 hours between the conclusion of Thursday’s start and Friday afternoon’s deadline.
Any trade involving Scherzer is going to be financially complicated, but looking at Stark’s list of interested parties, there are a few particularly complex scenarios. The Dodgers are already into the final luxury-tax bracket, meaning they’d pay a 62.5 percent overage penalty on any additional money added to the books. For Scherzer, whose remaining luxury hit clocks in at roughly $10.03MM post-deadline and $10.49MM as of this writing, that’d mean paying between $6.27MM and $6.56MM on top of the approximately $12.2MM he’s still owed in actual 2021 salary. (Luxury tax is calculated based on a contract’s average annual value, but Scherzer’s backloaded contract comes with a $35MM salary in 2021 — albeit with much of that sum deferred.)
The Padres are reportedly just above the luxury tax threshold, but are still considering moves that could take them back under that line. A Scherzer acquisition, however, would push them well above the mark. That’s also true of the Astros and the Red Sox, who are both within just a few million of the $210MM threshold. The Rays, of course, have an entirely different sort of financial obstacles to consider (namely, their perennially cellar-level payroll). The Jays and Giants, as teams with deep pockets and no real luxury concerns of which to speak, ostensibly represent the “cleanest” fits of the bunch.
That’s not to say that the Dodgers, Padres, Astros, Rays or Red Sox shouldn’t be considered legitimate contenders for Scherzer. (Although if Scherzer is hoping to stay with the club that acquires him, the low-payroll Rays are an admittedly tough fit.) Most clubs this summer have voiced some iteration of a “we’d exceed the threshold for the ‘right’ player” stance. It’s hard to imagine a player who fits that billing more than a bona fide ace and three-time Cy Young winner who has a 2.92 ERA in 49 1/3 postseason innings with the Nats since 2016. But with the Nats theoretically negotiating with a rapidly ticking clock, any complicated financial elements of a deal are magnified.
Blue Jays Interested In Joey Gallo, Richard Rodriguez
The Blue Jays continue to look for controllable upgrades all over their roster, and two of the trade deadline’s most-discussed names are on Toronto’s radar. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the Jays are one of the teams who have spoken with the Rangers about slugger Joey Gallo, while the Jays and Phillies are among the clubs looking at Pirates right-hander Richard Rodriguez, according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
The Jays were initially linked to Rodriguez last month, and it isn’t surprising that Toronto continues to have interest considering that the team’s bullpen has continued to struggle. Despite a +85 run differential, the Blue Jays have a modest 49-47 record due in large part to their 6-12 record in one-run games — a by-product of several blown late leads by a bullpen depleted by injuries. The Toronto front office has tried to address the problem by acquiring Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards in trades within the last month, though an argument can certainly be made that more reinforcements are necessary.
That said, Rodriguez has struggled in July after a very strong start to the season, so he isn’t exactly putting on the best showcase in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. What helps his trade value, however, is that Rodriguez is controlled through the 2023 season via two more arbitration years. Even with some saves boosting his arbitration resume, the righty will remain pretty inexpensive at least into 2022 considering that Rodriguez is playing on a $1.7MM salary in 2021.
Entering today’s action, the Blue Jays were 10.5 games behind the Red Sox for first place in the AL East, and nine games back of the Rays for both second place and the first AL wild card slot. Even in chasing the Athletics for the second wild card berth, 4.5. games and two other teams (the Mariners and Yankees) stand between Toronto and the A’s, so the Jays will need to heat up to get more firmly back into the postseason hunt.
While there hasn’t been any indication that the Jays are considering selling, it isn’t surprising that they seem to be prioritizing players who can help beyond 2021, rather than rental players for what might be a longshot of a playoff chase. Cimber and Richards are controlled through 2024, Rodriguez through 2023, and Gallo isn’t a free agent until after the 2022 season.
Acquiring Gallo would also seem to hint at larger-scale roster moves afoot either this winter or before Friday’s deadline, since the Jays’ outfield picture is already pretty crowded. George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk have all been rotating through the three outfield positions and in the DH spot, and Corey Dickerson will also be part of the mix once he is activated from the injured list. Acquiring Gallo would only add to this surplus, though a trade could itself address the issue. One would imagine the Rangers would have interest in Gurriel and his affordable contract, or maybe the much pricier Grichuk (owed $9.333MM in each of the 2022 and 2023 seasons) could be dealt as part of a larger deal, with the Blue Jays perhaps eating some of that money.
Since the Jays are already heavy in right-handed batters, a powerful left-handed bat like Gallo would add balance and make Toronto’s lineup even more dangerous. Also, as good as the Blue Jays’ lineup is at the moment, the team might lose a key piece this winter if Marcus Semien departs in free agency. Gallo is enjoying a nice rebound after a down year in 2020, as the Texas outfielder is hitting .222/.380/.484 with 24 homers and a league-best 74 walks over 384 plate appearances.
Blue Jays Select Kirby Snead, Designate Jacob Barnes
The Blue Jays announced Monday that they’ve selected the contract of left-hander Kirby Snead to the Major League roster and opened a spot by designating right-hander Jacob Barnes for assignment.
Snead, 26, was Toronto’s tenth-round pick back in 2016 and has steadily put together an impressive minor league track record. He reached Triple-A for the first time in 2019 and would’ve gotten another look there in 2020 were it not for the minor league season being shut down. He’s made the most of his second go-around there in 2021, however, pitching to a 2.01 ERA and 2.28 FIP with a huge 35.5 percent strikeout rate, a 9.9 percent walk rate and a 57.4 percent ground-ball rate in 31 1/3 frames.
Outside of one lone start earlier this year, when he worked two innings (presumably as an opener), Snead’s entire career has been spent working in relief. He’s a pure bullpen addition for the Jays — one who’s never had an ERA north of 3.88 at any level to this point in his career.
Barnes pitched nine innings for the Jays after coming over from the Mets and whiffed 30 percent of the 43 batters he faced, but he also walked six and hit another (16.3 percent). Now 31 years old, Barnes looked at one point like he might be a long-term piece in the Brewers’ bullpen. From 2016-18, he racked up 147 1/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with solid strikeout numbers, but he hasn’t been able to recreate that production. From 2019-21, Barnes has 78 1/3 big league innings split among five different teams, but he’s pitched to just a 6.55 ERA.
Barnes keeps getting chances with other clubs, likely owing to a combination of his fastball velocity, spin, chase rate and a strong minor league track record. There’s clearly some tantalizing aspects of his repertoire — you don’t see five teams take a chance on a 40-man roster spot for a player if there isn’t — but he hasn’t found consistency over the past few years. The Blue Jays will now have until Friday to trade Barnes, otherwise they’ll have to place him on outright waivers or release him.
Cardinals Acquire T.J. Zeuch From Blue Jays
The Cardinals have reportedly acquired right-hander T.J. Zeuch from the Blue Jays, per Robert Murray of FanSided (via Twitter). Zeuch was recently designated for assignment. The Blue Jays will receive cash considerations, and Zeuch will be assigned to Triple-A, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter).
St. Louis has been extremely active in the waiver market, already snagging T.J. McFarland and Justin Miller from the Nationals. Zeuch, however, brings the ability to log innings in the rotation. That fits a particular need for the Cardinals, who currently have four starters on the injured list (Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Carlos Martinez, Dakota Hudson).
He’s been fairly reliable, for what he provides. Basically, Zeuch offers innings and groundballs. Zeuch figured to be a popular target on the waiver wire given his relatively reliable production, pedigree as a former first-round draft pick, and contract, as he not only is pre-arb, but also comes with two options remaining. The Cardinals also had a 40-man roster spot open after losing Roel Ramirez off waivers to the Mets.
Rangers Exploring Contract Extension With Joey Gallo
Joey Gallo‘s name has been at the forefront of multiple trade rumors for months, though Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers “have become more aggressive” in their pursuit of a possible contract extension with the outfielder. Gallo has one year of arbitration remaining before being eligible for free agency following the 2022 campaign. It isn’t known whether Texas has actually made Gallo an offer, as agent Scott Boras declined to comment on the subject yesterday.
It isn’t unusual for teams to make what might essentially be a last-ditch effort at a long-term deal prior to the deadline. (Just earlier this week, Starling Marte and the Marlins held negotiations that didn’t end up panning out, so Marte is now looking like a prime candidate to be dealt prior to the July 30th deadline.) Of course, it also isn’t common for these midseason talks to actually result in a new contract. While Gallo has expressed his fondness for remaining with the Rangers, striking a new deal in the midst of the season would certainly count as a surprise for multiple factors — perhaps chief amongst them that Gallo is represented by Boras, whose clients usually end up testing the free agent market.
An extension would mean that Gallo would be putting a lot of faith in the Rangers’ front office that their current rebuild would bear fruit, as the team doesn’t look in position to contend by next season. From the Rangers’ perspective, obviously they would like to keep a player like Gallo in the fold, but his greatest value to the club at this point might be as a trade chip.
Gallo’s name has already been linked to the Yankees and Padres on the rumor mill, and Grant adds that the Blue Jays (who have been scouting Texas games over the past week) are “perhaps the Rangers’ most favored potential trade partner.” The Jays could have interest in any number of possible Rangers trade chips, and considering Toronto’s need for arms, Gallo might perhaps be lower on the Blue Jays’ radar than pitchers like Kyle Gibson or Ian Kennedy.
Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays Scouting Cubs/Diamondbacks
The Mets, Phillies, and Jays – and potentially others – have scouts at the Diamondbacks/Cubs game in Chicago today, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter).
That’s as good a place as any for deadline buyers to do their weekend shopping. Kris Bryant and Craig Kimbrel are the most notable names present, but there’s plenty of talent dotting Chicago’s roster. Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Zach Davies are the other veterans on expiring contracts, with Davies the most likely of the three to move.
The Cubs also stock affordable, veteran talent, both in the bullpen — where names like Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, and Dan Winkler could help a contender — and in the lineup, where low-cost veterans like Patrick Wisdom, Matt Duffy, and Jake Marisnick could be worth a conversation as well.
The Diamondbacks figure to be an even more fervent seller, though without the high-end talent of the Cubs. Still, Eduardo Escobar continues to be a popular name as a power bat offering defensive versatility on an expiring contract. Asdrubal Cabrera represents a knock-off edition, though the veteran has proven an effective deadline addition before, and he brings a more patient approach with an 11.7 walk rate this season.
Joakim Soria has a 4.45 ERA/3.91 FIP in 28 1/3 innings and a lengthy track record of success. The 14-year veteran is making just $3.5MM, and he, too, will be a free agent at year’s end. He has six saves and 229 for his career, so any acquiring team can rest assured that he’ll keep his composure, if nothing else. The Mets, Phillies, and Blue Jays all need bullpen help and could turn to Soria if Kimbrel proves too rich.
The rest of the Dbacks’ bullpen consists mostly of castoffs or unproven youngsters. Bespectacled vet Tyler Clippard won’t be cowed by the moment, but he’s only recently off the 60-day injured list and has just one appearance on the season. Former Brewers and Rays right-hander Jake Faria is having a decent season — 4.19 ERA, 19 1/3 innings — and would probably come cheap.
Noe Ramirez is worth a look. The 31-year-old sports a 3.31 ERA/3.72 FIP in 16 1/3 innings, but he’s long been undervalued because of pretty severe splits. He has a 3.94 career xFIP and 20.4 percent K-BB% against same-handed hitters, versus a 5.04 xFIP and 9.4 K-BB% against lefties for his career. Deployed judiciously, Ramirez can absolutely add value to a contender.
Merrill Kelly and Caleb Smith could be targeted as back-end rotation upgrades, with Kelly having the better season of the two. Kelly has posted 2.0 fWAR in 20 starts covering 117 innings. He has a 4.46 ERA/3.88 FIP with a 46.2 percent groundball rate, 20.3 percent strikeout rate, and solid 5.5 percent walk rate. He’s also affordable at $4.25MM this year and controllable with a $5.25MM club option for next year.
Kelly will take the mound today. He’s generating “a ton of interest on the trade market,” per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).
Smith is an extreme flyball pitcher controllable through 2023. With a 27.1 percent groundball rate for his career, he’s always going to be homer prone, but he’s nevertheless managed a palatable 4.38 ERA/4.64 FIP in 78 innings. Smith might be a better bet for a fringey contender looking towards the future, as his value lies at least as much in his controllability as it does his present ability to pitch in the back-end of a playoff rotation.
Royals Acquire Joel Payamps
The Royals have acquired reliever Joel Payamps from the Blue Jays in exchange for cash considerations, according to announcements from both teams. He has been optioned to Triple-A Omaha. Kansas City had a vacancy on the 40-man roster, so no additional move was necessary.
Toronto somewhat surprisingly designated Payamps for assignment last weekend. The righty has had a nice season, pitching to a 2.70 ERA/4.59 SIERA across 30 innings of relief. Payamps has only struck out 18.5% of batters faced (the league average for relievers is 24.5%), but he’s generated swinging strikes on a decent 11.6% of his offerings. Payamps has thrown strikes at an average rate and has thus far been excellent at avoiding damaging contact. The 27-year-old ranks in the 75th percentile or better in terms of suppressing opponents’ barrel rate, hard contact rate and average exit velocity, per Statcast.
Payamps is in his final minor league option year, meaning the Royals can shuttle him back-and-forth between Kansas City and Omaha for the remainder of this season. If he sticks on the 40-man roster over the winter, he’ll need to break camp on the active roster in 2022 or else again be offered around the league.
Blue Jays Designate T.J. Zeuch For Assignment
The Blue Jays announced they’ve reinstated catcher Alejandro Kirk from the 60-day injured list and optioned him to Triple-A Buffalo. To clear space on the 40-man roster, Toronto designated right-hander T.J. Zeuch for assignment.
The move might bring an end to Zeuch’s tenure with the Jays, who selected him in the first round of the 2016 draft. The big righty has made thirteen appearances (seven starts) with Toronto over the past three seasons, working to a 4.59 ERA across 49 innings. Zeuch has induced grounders on over half the balls put in play against him, but he’s struggled to miss bats at the big league level. The 25-year-old has only managed a 14.1% strikeout rate, while walking an elevated 10.9% of opponents.
Zeuch has spent the bulk of the year at Triple-A, posting a 4.03 ERA in 58 innings. His production there isn’t all that dissimilar from what he’s managed in the majors. Zeuch has racked up grounders (50.5%) but hasn’t struck out many batters (16.6%). To his credit, the 25-year-old has been better at throwing strikes in Triple-A, doling out free passes to just 5.1% of batters faced.
The Jays will have a week to trade Zeuch or expose him to waivers. It wouldn’t at all be surprising to see another club acquire him in the coming days. Zeuch has a strong minor league track record, and he’s shown the ability to carry his groundball tendencies over to the highest level. He also comes with an additional option year beyond this season. Any club that acquires Zeuch could keep him in the high minors through the end of 2022 so long as he sticks on the 40-man roster.
Kirk, one of baseball’s top catching prospects, has been out since early May with a left hip flexor strain. He’s hit very well in limited big league time to date, but the Jays will stick with the more experienced duo of Reese McGuire and Danny Jansen behind the plate for now.