Extension Candidate: Teoscar Hernandez
To some extent, Teoscar Hernandez has been a bit of an overlooked figure on the Blue Jays roster. He wasn’t part of the homegrown core of young talent, he isn’t exactly young himself since he turns 29 in October, and he wasn’t one of the major free agent signings that have played such key roles for the Jays in 2021 and (the team hopes) into the future. Hernandez did get a turn in the spotlight when he was voted into the American League’s starting All-Star lineup this past July, marking some overdue recognition of a player who has quietly been one of baseball’s best hitters over the last 26 months.
If “26 months” seems like something of an arbitrary timeline, it is because Hernandez has a pretty clear line of demarcation at almost the exact midpoint of his career. Prior to July 16, 2019, it wasn’t like Hernandez was a bad player, as he even hit 22 home runs for Toronto during the 2018 season. However, power was much pretty much all Hernandez had to offer over the first 971 plate appearances of his MLB career, as he swatted 42 home runs but batted only .231/.292/.447. This led to a 96 wRC+, and between that below-average offensive production and a very subpar outfield glove, there was some question about whether or not Hernandez could develop into anything more than a part-time player.
Needless to say, those questions have been answered. Hernandez hit a home run against the Red Sox in that July 16 game and then hit two more homers the next day, essentially heralding his arrival as a first-rate hitter. Over Hernandez’s last 916 plate appearances, he has hit 59 home runs and slashed .285/.343/.548 slash line. His 136 wRC+ since July 16, 2019 has been topped by only 12 qualified hitters in all of baseball, and he is also tied for eighth in slugging percentage in that timeframe.
Hernandez made some mechanical changes to his swing during a minor league demotion earlier in 2019, though there isn’t really a simple “lightbulb switched on” reason why Hernandez was suddenly much more productive. Looking at his numbers pre- and post-July 16, 2019, Hernandez’s walk rates have actually declined in the last 26 months, while his strikeout rates have gone from being almost league-worst to merely bad.
Hernandez always made plenty of hard contract, and with a .350 BABIP during the productive half of his career (and a .296 BABIP beforehand), there is some level of good fortune involved in Hernandez’s rise. That said, Hernandez has helped himself by making more contact in general and hitting more line drives, with his above-average baserunning allowing him to translate that hard contact into hits.
Turning to the defensive side, Hernandez has worked to become a respectable outfielder after struggling so badly in the field earlier in his career. Over 926 innings (707 in right field, 212 in left) this season, Hernandez has a +0.1 UZR/150 and +1 Outs Above Average, while the Defensive Runs Saved metric still gives him a -2 score. While a Gold Glove probably isn’t in Hernandez’s future, he has at least proven that he isn’t a DH-only player — which could prove important to his future earning potential.
Hernandez was arbitration-eligible for the first time this season, and avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.325MM salary. He’ll get a sizable raise coming this winter, and then another in the 2022-23 offseason before becoming eligible for free agency following the 2023 campaign. Should Hernandez keep up his level of offense next year, he should earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $17MM in 2022-23 before hitting the open market prior to his age-31 season.
That is, unless the Blue Jays keep him off the open market by working out a contract extension. With two-plus years remaining of control over Hernandez, the Jays aren’t in any immediate rush to make a decision one way or the other, and naturally quite a few other matters will need to be addressed in the interim. Re-signing impending free agents Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray seem to be a priority for the club, and one would imagine the Jays will make a hard push to extend Jose Berrios (a free agent after 2022) given how they surrendered such a notable prospect package to acquire him from the Twins at the trade deadline. Elsewhere on the extension front, Toronto might also look to land some long-term cost certainty over cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, even though both are already controlled through the 2025 season.
In short, Hernandez might find himself somewhat overlooked again, if the Jays are content to go year-by-year. However, there is some logic in the team exploring a longer deal with the slugger right now. While the Blue Jays are one of the league’s best offensive teams, the lineup will take a big hit if Semien leaves, and the future depth has been a bit depleted — Cavan Biggio has struggled through an injury-plagued year, Rowdy Tellez was traded to the Brewers, and top prospect Austin Martin was dealt in the Berrios swap.
Speaking of the prospect ranks, the Toronto farm system has plenty of intriguing infielders and pitchers, but the Jays are short on young outfielders ready to make an impact at the big league level. While that could change in the two years before Hernandez hits free agency, the lack of young outfield depth was one reason the Jays felt compelled to sign George Springer this past offseason. There isn’t anyone immediately coming to push for Hernandez’s role, and in any case, Hernandez would seem to have a lot more job security than the much more inconsistent Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Grichuk is signed through 2023 but has provided below-average offense in Toronto, while Gurriel is controlled through 2024 but has been part of trade rumors in the past.
Only Hernandez himself (and maybe his agents at Republik Sports) would know the answer to this subject, but the outfielder also might be eager to lock in the first big payday of his professional career. Hernandez made more in 2021 than he did in the rest of his career combined, as he received only a $20K bonus when first signing with the Astros back in 2011. While $7MM+ in arb earnings is lined up for 2022, Hernandez might not want to run the risk of injury or a downturn in performance next season, so he could be open to a deal of fewer additional years, but maybe a higher average annual value in 2024 or 2025.
Grichuk’s four-year/$47MM deal in April 2019 is the only major multi-year extension of the Ross Atkins era, so there isn’t much of a hint about how this front office might approach a Hernandez extension, or if such a deal is even truly on their radar. The trade that brought Hernandez to Toronto is already one of the canniest moves of Atkins’ tenure as GM, and that trade will only look better if a deal can be worked out so Hernandez can continue to be a big part of the Blue Jays lineup for years to come.
Blue Jays Outright A.J. Cole
The Blue Jays announced this afternoon they’ve passed reliever A.J. Cole through waivers and assigned him outright to Triple-A Buffalo. Cole has previously been outrighted in his career, so he’ll have the right to elect free agency.
Cole logged 23 1/3 innings for the Jays last season, posting a 3.09 ERA but shakier peripherals. He was non-tendered over the winter but returned to the organization on a minor league deal. Selected to the big league roster in early May, Cole worked eight innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts and just one walk. He landed on the 10-day injured list with neck tightness in early June, then suffered a left oblique strain that caused him to be shifted to the 60-day IL.
Nearing a return from those injuries, Cole began a minor league rehab assignment on August 11. Pitchers are allotted thirty days on rehab, and with Cole’s window dwindling, the Jays had to decide whether to bring him back. Rather than reinstall Cole to the active and 40-man rosters, Toronto elected to place him on waivers.
Cole has also appeared with the Nationals, Yankees and Indians over parts of seven big league seasons. Overall, the 29-year-old owns a 4.51 ERA/4.25 SIERA in 205 1/3 innings. Even if Cole accepts this outright assignment, he’d qualify for minor league free agency this winter if the Jays don’t add him back to the 40-man roster by the end of the season.
Pirates Claim Connor Overton
The Pirates claimed right-hander Connor Overton off waivers from the Blue Jays on Monday, according to a club announcement from Pittsburgh. To make room on the 40-man roster, righty Duane Underwood Jr. was transferred from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list.
Overton, 28, was designated for assignment by the Jays last week to make roster space for their waiver claim of veteran infielder Jake Lamb. Overton’s initial call the Majors this season was his first, and he responded by tossing 6 2/3 innings of scoreless ball with four strikeouts and a pair of walks. It was the continuation of a strong season in Triple-A, where he’d logged a 2.03 ERA with a below-average 21.6 percent strikeout rate but an excellent 4.3 percent walk rate and an above-average 47.9 percent ground-ball rate.
The bulk of Overton’s career has been spent in the Giants organization, although he was originally a 15th-round pick of the Marlins back in 2014. He’s been a minor league free agent on three occasions, going first to the Nationals, then to the Giants and lastly to the Blue Jays. Along the way, Overton has battled multiple injuries, including Tommy John surgery, and played for a pair of teams on the independent circuit: the Atlantic League’s Lancaster Barnstormers and the American Association’s Sioux City Explorers.
It hasn’t been the most straightforward path to the big leagues for Overton, but he’ll get another opportunity to add to an impressive start now that he’s headed to the Pirates. Overton has all of his minor league options remaining, so he could be a flexible depth option for the Bucs next season if they’re willing to keep him on the 40-man roster all winter. In parts of three Triple-A seasons, Overton has a 2.39 ERA with a 22.4 percent strikeout rate, a 5.4 percent walk rate and a 46.9 percent ground-ball rate.
Injury Notes: Rodon, Blue Jays, Slater, Gsellman, Cardinals
The White Sox are skipping Carlos Rodon‘s next turn in the rotation due to shoulder soreness, and manager Tony La Russa told reporters (including NBC Chicago’s Maddie Lee) that the team is hopeful Rodon can pitch during the upcoming September 10-12 series with the Red Sox. That said, “when he doesn’t feel right, it’s impossible to push it,” La Russa said, noting that in the wake of Rodon’s recent injured-list stint due to shoulder fatigue, “that’s what’s concerning, that all this should add up to where right now he would be in peak form.”
Rodon missed a little over two weeks on the IL and has pitched well in two starts since returning, posting a 2.70 ERA over 10 innings. However, the Sox were easing Rodon back into action, limiting him to 144 total pitches over the two outings. La Russa said Jimmy Lambert would likely be called up to take Rodon’s spot in what has become an increasingly injury-riddled pitching staff — Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn are also on the 10-day injured list.
The latest on other injury situations around baseball…
- Cavan Biggio and Ross Stripling are slated to begin rehab assignments at the Blue Jays‘ Triple-A affiliate, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes (Twitter link). Stripling was placed on the 10-day IL on August 11 with a left oblique strain and could be closer than Biggio to a return, as Stripling might be back when the Jays begin a series against the Orioles on Friday. Biggio was already on a rehab assignment for a back problem when he suffered an elbow injury two weeks ago, thus setting back his progress.
- The Giants placed outfielder Austin Slater on the seven-day concussion IL prior to tonight’s game. Left-hander Sammy Long was also sent down to Triple-A, while righty Camilo Doval and outfielder Steven Duggar were recalled in corresponding moves. Slater suffered his concussion while crashing into the outfield wall in Saturday’s game in an attempt to catch a Trea Turner home run. Now in his fifth season with San Francisco, Slater is hitting .227/.313/.395 with 10 home runs over 288 plate appearances while seeing time at all three outfield positions.
- Robert Gsellman began a rehab assignment at the Mets‘ low-A affiliate today, Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets. Gsellman has been sidelined since June 21 due to a torn lat muscle, and though he’ll need multiple rehab outings due to the long layoff, he is on pace to return to the Mets bullpen before the season is out.
- Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told The Athletic’s Katie Woo and other reporters that Jack Flaherty will take the “huge step” of beginning to play catch within the next day or two. Flaherty’s season seemed to be in jeopardy when he was placed on the IL on August 25 due to a shoulder strain, though there is some optimism that the right-hander may be able to return as either a reliever or as a piggyback starter. In other Cardinals pitching news, Shildt said that Dakota Hudson will throw at least three more rehab starts as the righty continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery. The timing will be somewhat tight, but there is some hope that Hudson can return to a big league mound this season, which would mark a tremendous recovery considering that Hudson underwent his surgery in late September 2020.
Blue Jays Hopeful Of Retaining Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray
Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray have been two of baseball’s best players this season, let alone big reasons why the Blue Jays are still in the hunt for an AL wild card berth. Both are scheduled to hit free agency this winter, and it isn’t any surprise that the Jays have interest in keeping both players in the fold. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Jays have already tried to sign Semien to a contract extension, while the club intends to discuss a long-term deal with Ray after the season.
The wording would seem to imply that the Jays have yet to broach an extension with Ray, which might not necessarily mean that the team is prioritizing Semien. Ray (like many players) might simply prefer to not talk contract during the season, in order to focus solely on baseball. Also of note, Semien is represented by the Wasserman Agency, which has traditionally been more open to in-season negotiating — in the last month alone, Wasserman clients Travis d’Arnaud and Brandon Crawford each inked new deals to remain with their current teams.
Barring a truly massive offer from the Blue Jays, it was probably unlikely that Semien would’ve accepted an extension this close to free agency, as the veteran infielder looks set to land the pricey multi-year deal that eluded him on the open market last year. Semien didn’t hit well over the first month of the shortened 2020 season, leaving him with only a .223/.305/.374 slash line in 236 total PA even after he hit much better in late September and during the Athletics’ playoff run. Rather than take a multi-year contract at a lowered cost, Semien opted for a one-year, $18MM deal with Toronto, betting on himself to deliver bigger numbers over a full season.
That bet has paid off handsomely, as Semien hit his 35th homer of the season today, and is now batting .266/.334/.530 over 601 plate appearances. With the abbreviated 2020 season folded between Semien’s big years in 2019 and 2021, his three-season cumulative total of a .268/.346/.501 slash line over 1579 PA works out to a 128 wRC+, solidly placing him amongst the best middle infielders in baseball. Semien had been a starting shortstop in Oakland before becoming the Jays’ second baseman this season, to accommodate Bo Bichette at short.
Ray also had something to prove in the wake of a rough 2020 season with the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays, and he moved quickly to rejoin the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8MM pact soon after the opening of the official free agent period. Ray had always been plagued by inconsistency and high walk totals during his five-plus seasons in Arizona, but after working with the Jays’ coaching staff and overhauling his offseason training regimen, Ray has blossomed as a candidate for the AL Cy Young Award.
Including today’s 6 2/3 shutout innings of work against Oakland, Ray has a 2.60 ERA and 32.3% strikeout rate over 166 frames. Perhaps most importantly, Ray has only a six percent walk rate — easily his career best, and in the 82nd percentile of all qualified pitchers this season. Ray has also gained enough innings to qualify as baseball’s all-time leader in K/9, with an 11.2 total over his eight MLB seasons.
In short, both Semien and Ray project to be two of the offseason’s top free agents, and re-signing both could potentially cost the Blue Jays upwards of $200MM. While it remains to be seen if the Jays will indeed be able to bring even one of the duo back for 2022 and beyond, money alone shouldn’t be a deterrent. The signings of George Springer and Hyun Jin Ryu are evidence that Toronto is willing to spend big in free agency, and many of the Jays’ young stars are either cost-controlled via arbitration or (in Bichette’s case) are still over a year away from arbitration eligibility. The Blue Jays also don’t have that much money on the books in future years, creating the possibility that both Semien and Ray could be slotted alongside Springer, Ryu, and possibly major extensions for the likes of Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Teoscar Hernandez.
Blue Jays Activate Jake Lamb, Option Kirby Snead
The Blue Jays have activated recently acquired third baseman Jake Lamb in time for today’s ballgame. In a corresponding move, Kirby Snead was optioned to Triple-A, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (via Twitter).
Davidi also notes that Cavan Biggio took batting practice today. That could mean a short stay for Lamb, given that Biggio has been Toronto’s regular third baseman when healthy. Biggio can move around the diamond, of course, so there might be room for both on the roster. Kevin Smith and Breyvic Valera will also be candidates to lose their roster spot when Biggio returns.
Lamb showed some versatility himself during his stint with the White Sox. He appeared at a couple of games at first and third, but mostly, he was used in the outfield corners. He was a league-average hitter in that time, slashing .212/.321/.389 in 131 plate appearances.
Snead’s time in the Majors was short, but productive. He posted a 2.35 ERA across seven appearances totaling 7 2/3 innings. He gave up seven hits, but walked just two while striking out seven.
Blue Jays Claim Jake Lamb From White Sox
The Blue Jays announced they’ve claimed corner infielder/outfielder Jake Lamb off waivers from the White Sox. Right-hander Connor Overton was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Lamb signed a one-year deal with the White Sox over the offseason. He spent the year as a left-handed depth piece, picking up occasional starts at each of the four corner spots on the diamond as well as designated hitter. Over 131 plate appearances, Lamb hit a league average .212/.321/.389. He drew walks at a very strong 13% clip and popped six home runs in that limited time, but he also struck out in 29% of his plate appearances en route to that poor batting average.
That’s better production than Lamb had managed over the prior three seasons. He popped 59 home runs as the Diamondbacks’ regular third baseman between 2016-17, earning an All-Star nod in the latter of those two campaigns. But Lamb never regained his peak form upon suffering a shoulder injury in 2018 that eventually required surgery. Between 2018-20, he posted a .205/.309/.351 line in roughly one full season’s worth of playing time.
Lamb figures to assume a similar lefty bench bat role in Toronto. The Jays will take on what remains of his $1MM salary (approximately $171K) to bolster their position player depth as they look to erase a five-game deficit in the race for the American League’s final playoff spot. If the Jays do make the postseason, Lamb would not be eligible for the playoff roster because he was acquired after August 31. The 30-year-old will reach free agency this offseason.
Overton will be placed on waivers in the coming days. Toronto selected the 28-year-old to make his big league debut last month. Overton has been impressive in his first look, tossing 6 2/3 scoreless innings with four strikeouts and two walks. And he’d been excellent this season with the Jays’ top affiliate in Buffalo, where he worked to a 2.03 ERA over 57 2/3 innings. Nevertheless, the Jays front office is evidently skeptical he can continue to prevent runs at that level without generating many whiffs. The right-hander only punched out 21.6% of opposing hitters in Triple-A and has a below-average 9.7% swinging strike rate in his brief big league look.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if another club is willing to give Overton a longer look. In addition to his strong results, Overton has all three minor league option years remaining. Any claiming team could shuttle him back and forth between the majors and Triple-A for the next couple years — if he can carve out a permanent 40-man roster spot.
Mets Claim Brad Hand
The Mets have claimed left-handed reliever Brad Hand off waivers from the Blue Jays, reports MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter thread). The Jays designated Hand for assignment earlier this week. Because he’s been acquired after Aug. 31, Hand would be ineligible for the Mets’ playoff roster, should the team qualify.
It proved to be a short stay in Toronto for Hand, who was acquired in a July 29th deal that sent catcher Riley Adams from Toronto to Washington. Hand had been in something of a slump with the Nats after a strong three-month start to the season and ultimately wasn’t able to turn the tide following a change of scenery. In 8 2/3 innings with the Jays, Hand yielded 10 runs (seven earned) on 13 hits and three walks with five strikeouts. Of those 13 knocks, three of them left the yard.
Hand is playing the season on a one-year, $10.5MM deal he signed with the Nationals in free agency. He’s still owed $1.75MM of that sum through season’s end, and by claiming him off waivers rather than letting him reach free agency and then attempting to sign him, the Mets are taking on the remainder of that salary.
Notably, the Mets had interest in Hand dating all the way back to the early stages of the 2020-21 offseason. Team president Sandy Alderson has gone on record to state that the team might have claimed Hand when the Indians placed him on waivers at the end of the 2020 campaign (in an effort to spare themselves the $1MM buyout on his $10MM club option). However, with the team’s ownership change not yet finalized, the Mets weren’t in a position to claim an eight-figure salary. Later in free agency, the Mets were reported to have made an offer similar to the $10.5MM deal Hand accepted from the division-rival Nationals.
That could have turned out to be a blessing in disguise for the Mets. Even setting aside Hand’s recent struggles, the Mets’ alternate course of action saw the team instead turn to sign southpaw Aaron Loup, who has pitched to a stellar 1.20 ERA through 45 innings while playing on a one-year, $3MM deal.
The Mets now have both lefties, and they’ll hope for a rebound for Hand. It’d likely be expecting too much to seek a return to his halcyon days with the Padres, when he pitched to a 2.62 ERA with a 33 percent strikeout rate in 240 1/3 innings from 2016-18. However, Hand pitched to a mid-2.00s ERA with the Nats up through the season’s first few months — albeit with a greatly diminished 23 percent strikeout rate and much more questionable marks from fielding-independent metrics than during his San Diego peak.
There’s not much risk for the Mets in claiming Hand, other than being out a bit of money for a player who has been struggling immensely in recent weeks. If Hand can return to form, he can help fuel an improbable postseason push and perhaps set himself up more nicely for his forthcoming return to the free-agent market. If the struggles persist, the Mets were already a long shot for the playoffs anyhow. They’re five games out of the division lead and five and a half back in the Wild Card hunt, but team president Sandy Alderson is still willing to make some moves and Cohen is still willing to spend some money to try to close that gap.
White Sox Sign Carl Edwards Jr.; Kyle Crick Opts Out Of Minors Deal
The White Sox signed reliever Carl Edwards Jr. to a minor league contract yesterday, per an announcement from their Triple-A affiliate in Charlotte. He had been released by the Blue Jays earlier in the week.
Edwards has appeared in the big leagues with both the Braves and Toronto already this season. Between the two clubs, he has only tallied 5 2/3 innings, allowing seven runs. Edwards landed on the injured list with an oblique strain in mid-June and has spent the past couple months recovering. While he recently embarked upon a rehab assignment, the Jays evidently decided to release him rather than bring him back to the big league roster.
It has been a difficult few seasons for Edwards, who was once high-end reliever during his time with the Cubs. Between 2016-18, Edwards posted a 3.03 ERA across 154 1/3 innings for the North Siders. Injury issues and an increasing propensity for issuing walks, however, have knocked him off course in recent seasons.
While the White Sox didn’t announce their deal with Edwards until this morning, that it was finalized yesterday is significant. Players in an organization by August 31 are eligible for a team’s postseason roster, so Edwards could be an option for the ChiSox come playoff time. There’s no question Chicago will reach the playoffs, given their insurmountable lead in the AL Central. Of course, Edwards would have to pitch his way into the big league bullpen to warrant that consideration.
While Chicago adds some right-handed relief depth with the Edwards signing, they’re losing Kyle Crick to free agency. MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports that Crick has triggered an opt-out clause in his minor league deal and been granted his release. The former Pirate signed with Chicago a month ago and tossed 10 1/3 innings of one-run ball with Charlotte, striking out fifteen while issuing just three walks. That strong showing should help him find another opportunity elsewhere in relatively short order.
Diamondbacks Acquire Two Players From Blue Jays To Complete Joakim Soria Trade
The Diamondbacks announced they’ve acquired two minor league players — catcher J.J. D’Orazio and left-hander Yaifer Perdomo — from the Blue Jays. The move completes the teams’ deadline day deal that sent veteran reliever Joakim Soria to Toronto.
Arizona picks up a pair of low-level developmental prospects. Entering the season, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked the 19-year-old D’Orazio the #26 prospect in the Jays’ system, praising his frame and bat-to-ball skills. Perdomo has never appeared on an organizational ranking at either FanGraphs or Baseball America. The 20-year-old posted gaudy strikeout totals with the Jays’ Florida Complex League affiliate this season though. Both D’Orazio and Perdomo were recently bumped up to Low-A.
Soria hasn’t yet had much of an opportunity to make an impact for his new club. The 37-year-old went down with inflammation in his right middle finger on August 4 and missed three weeks. He’s tossed 3 2/3 scoreless innings with five strikeouts for the Jays and will be a free agent at the end of the season.