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Trade Candidate Faceoff: Bauer Vs. Stroman Vs. Minor

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Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer, Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman and Rangers lefty Mike Minor have been among the most popular names in the rumor mill in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. All three are quality starters who are under control through 2020, so a slew of contenders have predictably shown serious interest in each of them. But who’s the most desirable of the trio?

Perhaps it’s the 28-year-old Bauer, who started his major league career in 2012 with the Diamondbacks. The third pick in the 2011 draft, Bauer was something of a can’t-miss prospect coming up. It took him longer than expected to find his footing in the majors, though, and it didn’t happen in Arizona. It occurred in Cleveland, which acquired Bauer in a three-team trade prior to the 2013 season. Bauer was a useful starter with the Indians from his first full season in 2014 through 2017, but he truly put it all together last year. Across 175 1/3 innings, Bauer notched a 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP with 11.34 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 en route to a sixth-place finish in the AL Cy Young voting.

Bauer probably won’t wind up in Cy Young contention this season, though he has turned in another above-average performance. No major league starter has amassed more innings than Bauer, who has delivered 144 2/3 frames of 3.67 ERA/4.29 FIP pitching with 10.58 K/9 against 3.48 BB/9. But home runs have been a major problem for Bauer compared to last year, when he yielded them on just 6.2 percent of fly balls. The rate has shot to 15.2 this season, while Bauer’s groundball percentage has shrunk from 44.5 to 38.5. He is, however, averaging a personal-best 94.8 mph on his four-seam fastball.

Stroman, also 28, has never encountered trouble racking up grounders in the majors. Since debuting in 2014, Stroman has posted a tremendous 59.7 percent grounder rate, including 57.9 this year. The ability to induce worm burners has long made Stroman effective at preventing runs, even though he’s hardly a strikeout-heavy pitcher. Stroman has fanned just over seven per nine in his career and this season, and has also logged a sub-3.00 BB/9 during those spans. The package of skills has helped Stroman to a praiseworthy 3.06 ERA/3.60 FIP in 117 2/3 innings this season.

Minor, 31, fared nicely as a Braves starter from 2010-14, but injuries knocked his career off course thereafter and kept him out of action from 2015-16. When he returned the next season with the Royals, Minor was a reliever – and an excellent one at that. But after signing a three-year, $28MM contract with the Rangers going into 2018, he returned to a starting role. The results were closer to average than exceptional then, though Minor has made notable strides since. His ERA’s an outstanding 2.86, albeit with a less inspiring 4.08 FIP, in 129 innings. Minor fanned 10 Astros and walked one in seven innings of a losing effort Friday, improving his K/9 to 9.14 and his BB/9 to 3.14. Although Minor hurt his cause by allowing four home runs, he has generally kept the long ball at bay this season.

It’s clear Bauer, Stroman and Minor are all appealing starters, but one can’t simply compare their performances when talking about them as trade candidates. Their salaries also play a key part in the discussion. Bauer’s easily the most expensive of the group this year ($13MM) and could end up in the $18MM to $20MM range during his final trip to arbitration over the winter. Minor comes in next at $9.5MM, but another $9.5MM salary is already etched in stone for 2020. Stroman’s making $7.4MM this season, though he’ll certainly join Bauer in getting a raise in his last year of arbitration.

Weighing all the factors – performance, age, price and what you think each would cost in a trade – which of these hurlers would you most want to acquire in the next week and a half?

(Poll link for app users)

Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Targets

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July 19: The Phillies have also shown some level of interest in Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Given that Stroman is eminently available and arguably the most likely pitcher in baseball to be traded in the next two weeks, it’d be a surprise if Philadelphia (or any other team eyeing rotation upgrades) hadn’t reached out to Toronto to express interest.

July 18: It’s already been a busy day on the Phillies rumor mill, as we’ve heard reports connecting the team to such names as the Rangers’ Mike Minor, newly-minted free agent Drew Smyly, and (before he was dealt to the Red Sox) Andrew Cashner.  Since pitching is such a priority for the arm-needy Phils, it’s no surprise that they’ve cast a wide eye across the pitching market, as NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports that the Phillies have also had talks about Giants southpaw Madison Bumgarner, Tigers lefty Matt Boyd, and Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke.

The Phils also looked into Homer Bailey before the Royals dealt Bailey to the Athletics last weekend, indicating that Philadelphia is looking at all ends of the pitching market.  As Salisbury notes, the Phillies aren’t keen on giving up several top prospects to land a top starter, as rival teams are still putting high price tags on their best trade chips.

Lower-level targets like Cashner, Bailey, and Smyly are therefore also being explored to help stabilize at least the back of the Phillies’ rotation.  Of course, the Phillies are arguably in need of multiple arms already, and that need will only become more severe if Jake Arrieta ends up requiring season-ending surgery.  Trading for two top-of-the-market starters is almost surely too steep a price for the Phillies, so a tactic of acquiring just one of those top-flight arms and then signing a pitcher like Smyly could be a more viable strategy if Philadelphia does intend to pick up more than one starter.

Recent comments from team president Andy MacPhail suggest that the Phillies aren’t going to give up top prospects for a rental player (if at all), and perhaps could be more inclined to pursue trades that would see the team take on salary rather than move much in the way of notable minor league talent.  This stance would seem to make it less likely that the Phillies make a strong push for Bumgarner (a free agent after the season) or Boyd, who will be relatively cost-controlled through three arbitration-eligible seasons but is only available for a team that meets the Tigers’ heavy asking price.

This leaves Greinke as a potentially very intriguing candidate, as the Diamondbacks are likelier to accept a lower-level prospect package just for the sake of getting the righty’s salary off the books.  While Greinke has largely been excellent over his tenure in Arizona, his contract takes up such a big percentage of the team’s payroll that it has left the semi-rebuilding D’Backs somewhat hamstrung in terms of financial flexibility.  Greinke is owed roughly $83.1MM in salary and signing bonus allotments until the end of the 2021 season — to put it in perspective, Greinke alone accounted for almost 28 percent of the Diamondbacks’ player payroll in 2019.

Trading for Greinke would probably put the Phillies over the $206MM luxury tax threshold, as Roster Resource currently projects their number as $196.36MM.  The Phils could try to move some other salaries to carve out some extra payroll space, or perhaps just accept going over the tax limit as the cost of doing business for a run at the postseason.

Then again, this could all be a moot point since Greinke said in February that he didn’t want to be dealt anywhere, and the Phillies are one of the 15 teams on his no-trade list.  While it’s possible Greinke’s feelings have changed in recent months, it could take some further negotiating to get Greinke into the fold, perhaps so much so that the Phillies could prefer to just move onto another trade target.

Blue Jays To Activate Ryan Borucki

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Injured Blue Jays left-hander Ryan Borucki’s next start will come at the Major League level, manager Charlie Montoyo told reporters Thursday (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). Borucki has spent all season on the 60-day injured list, so he’ll need to be added back to the 40-man roster. Nick Kingham’s DFA earlier today gives the Jays an open spot.

Borucki, 25, presents Toronto with a potential long-term piece in the rotation. He emerged for his first look at the MLB level last season and more than held his own in the hitter-friendly American League East, as he pitched to a 3.87 ERA with 6.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9 and a 46.8 percent ground-ball rate. Borucki’s K/BB numbers weren’t particularly strong, so barring an improvement on that front, he’ll need to keep limiting the long ball as he did in 2018 to maintain that success. That’s a tougher task than ever amid the current home run deluge in MLB, although Borucki entered the season having averaged just 0.58 HR/9 in his minor league career.

An elbow issue sidelined Borucki in Spring Training and ultimately kept him out far longer than initially anticipated. He’s made four rehab outings in the minors over the past few weeks, during which he’s tallied 18 innings with an even 3.00 ERA and a strong 19-to-3 K/BB ratio.

Borucki will return to a rotation that also includes Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and Trent Thornton but has seen turnover in the other starting spots. He’ll help to solidify that mix for a brief time, but the Blue Jays seem extremely likely to trade Stroman in the next 13 days and could move Sanchez as well. The impending Stroman deal makes Borucki’s return all the more important for Toronto, as the veteran rotation candidates the front office picked up — Clayton Richard, Edwin Jackson, Clay Buchholz and Matt Shoemaker — have all either pitched poorly or been sidelined by injury.

Blue Jays Designate Nick Kingham For Assignment

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The Blue Jays announced on Thursday that they’ve designated right-hander Nick Kingham for assignment. His spot on the active roster will go to lefty Thomas Pannone, who was recalled from Triple-A Buffalo and will start today’s game. The move leaves Toronto with an open spot on the 40-man roster.

Kingham, 27, was once a well-regarded prospect with the Pirates but made his way to Toronto via trade earlier this year after Pittsburgh designated him for assignment. The out-of-options righty struggled tremendously with the Bucs, leaving the organization with little choice but to make a move. Kingham fared considerably better in 18 innings with the Jays, pitching to a 3.50 ERA with 12 strikeouts against seven walks (one intentional. However, the alarming home run issues that plagued Kingham in his final season with the Pirates carried over in Toronto. He served up four homers as a Blue Jay.

Toronto will now have a week to trade Kingham, release him or pass him through outright waivers. He’s never cleared waivers in the past, nor does he have three years of MLB service time, so if Kingham does clear, he can be outrighted to Triple-A and remain with the club without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster. It’s not out of the question that another organization will want to try its hand at straightening out the long-promising right-hander, though. If he does land with another club, he’ll need to stick on the big league roster due to the aforementioned lack of minor league options.

Trade Candidates: Top 5 Relievers By K/BB Ratio

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On Tuesday, with help from the top 60 trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week, we took a look at the movable starters who have outpaced the rest of the pack in K/BB ratio this season. We’ll do the same here with qualified relievers in advance of the July 31 trade deadline…

Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 7:33

  • Dyson’s just two years removed from being left for dead by the Rangers, who traded him to the Giants for a meager package in 2017. The 31-year-old has revived his career in San Francisco, though, and will garner a far better return this time if the Giants move him this month. Dyson has fanned 8.61 per nine innings against just 1.17 walks, induced grounders at a 55.6 percent clip and notched a nearly identical 2.74 ERA/2.73 FIP in 46 innings. Dyson, who’s on a $5MM salary, also comes with another year of arbitration eligibility.

Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres: K/BB ratio: 7.11

  • Yates is going to be hard to pry out of San Diego. Multiple reports have indicated the Padres are understandably seeking a king’s ransom in return for the 32-year-old. Since the Padres claimed Yates off waivers from the Angels in April 2017, he has evolved into one of the game’s premier relievers. Yates owns a jaw-dropping 1.10 ERA/1.28 FIP with 14.05 K/9 against 1.98 BB/9 over 41 innings this season, and has made good on 30 of 32 save opportunities. Adding to Yates’ appeal, he’s making an affordable sum ($3,062,500) and under arbitration control for another season.

Will Smith, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 6.22

  • There has been widespread interest in Smith, who – along with Dyson – has helped form an imposing late-game setup in San Francisco. Smith has recorded a 2.75 ERA/2.70 FIP with 12.81 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9 in 39 1/3 frames, during which he has converted 24 saves on 26 opportunities. Although Smith’s making a reasonable $4.225MM this season, the 30-year-old would be a rental for another team, as he’s due to hit free agency over the winter. Having charged back into the NL wild-card race of late, the Giants might not be locks to move Smith (or their other vets) on paper. However, they’re reportedly planning to sell in the next two weeks despite their recent hot streak. Smith figures to be in another uniform soon, then.

Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays: K/BB ratio: 5.89

  • The 28-year-old Giles has dealt with an elbow issue since last weekend, but indications are it isn’t serious. If true, he should hold plenty of value around the deadline. Not only does he make a fair salary ($6.3MM) and come with another season of arbitration control, but the hard-throwing Giles is enjoying a career campaign. The former Phillie and Astro has registered a stunning 1.45 ERA/1.50 FIP with 15.39 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9 in 31 innings. Giles also ranks second among all relievers in swinging-strike percentage (20.4), and has blown just one save in 14 chances.

Tony Watson, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 5.8

  • With three Giants on this list, it’s no wonder president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi seems inclined to sell this month in lieu of taking what would likely be a futile run at a wild-card spot. Plus, at 34, Watson’s not exactly a long-term piece for the club. While Watson, who’s making $3.5MM this season, does have a player option for 2020, it’s likely he’ll decline the $2.5MM guarantee in favor of a trip to free agency over the winter. After all, Watson has logged a 3.03 ERA with 6.75 K/9, 1.16 BB/9 and a career-high 13.3 percent swinging-strike rate across 38 2/3 innings this year. On the other hand, Watson’s strikeout rate is a personal low, he’s allowing more home runs than ever (1.4 per nine) and his 4.35 FIP and 4.42 xFIP aren’t the marks of a late-game force. He’s also having an unexpected amount of trouble against lefties, who have lit him up for a .341/.356/.477 line in 2019. There’s a strong argument for the Giants to sell high on Watson.

Blue Jays Acquire Wilmer Font

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The Blue Jays have acquired right-hander Wilmer Font from the Mets in exchange for cash, per announcements from both organizations. New York designated Font for assignment last Friday.

The Mets acquired Font, 29, from the Rays in exchange for 19-year-old righty Neraldo Catalina early in the season to add some depth to a beleaguered pitching staff. He made a few spot starts early in his time with the club but settled into a relief role with uninspiring results. In 31 total innings as a Met, Font logged a 4.94 ERA with 24 strikeouts against 13 walks and two hit batters. Font also served up eight long balls in that short time with the Mets.

Despite his lack of success in the Majors, however, Font keeps intriguing clubs around the league. He’s been traded from the Dodgers to the A’s to the Rays to the Mets and now the Jays without ever even being exposed to outright waivers. He does average 94 mph on a heater he complements with multiple breaking pitches, and Font has experience as an opener, a traditional starter and a reliever, so he’s comfortable in a variety of roles. The Jays will become the fifth team to try to coax quality results out of Font since the 2018 campaign opened, and as a rebuilding club they can certainly afford him a decent leash if they see fit.

Blue Jays Designate Edwin Jackson For Assignment

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The Blue Jays have recalled righty Jacob Waguespack from Triple-A Buffalo and designated veteran righty Edwin Jackson to clear a spot on the roster, per a team announcement.

Jackson, 35, is baseball’s consummate journeyman, having appeared with an MLB-record 14 teams since debuting as a 19-year-old with the Dodgers back in 2003. His stop in Toronto broke Octavio Dotel’s record of 13 clubs, but his time pitching in a Jays uniform produced the worst results of his career. Through 28 1/3 frames, Jackson has been tattooed for an 11.12 ERA; he’s been charged with 35 earned runs on a staggering 49 hits (12 home runs) and 13 walks with 19 strikeouts in that time.

The Jays will have a week to act on Jackson, and while he can be traded to another club, it seems likelier that he’ll either be passed through waivers or released. If he does return to the open market, Jackson will all but certainly need to take a minor league deal and earn his way back onto a big league roster — perhaps with the 15th team of his MLB career.

Trade Candidates: Top 5 Hitters By xwOBA

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Plenty of major league hitters are trade candidates leading up to the July 31 deadline, but which ones truly stand out as players who could help a team’s offense down the stretch? Let’s take a look at the cream of the crop (minimum 100 plate appearances), with help from the enormous trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week and Statcast’s expected weighted-on base average metric…

Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays: expected weighted-on base average: .387; real wOBA: .332

  • Smoak’s .211/.350/.406 line (106 wRC+) isn’t pretty, nor does the impending free-agent first baseman play a premium position. However, judging by the 55-point gap between his xwOBA and wOBA, the switch-hitting Smoak has been one of the unluckiest batters in baseball this year and someone whose presence could be a late-season boon for a playoff-level team. He’s also sporting an unfortunate .219 batting average on balls in play, down from a lifetime .267, and has amassed almost as many unintentional walks (49) as strikeouts (60).

Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres: xwOBA: .379; real wOBA: .350

  • Unlike Smoak, Reyes comes with several seasons of control. The 24-year-old won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2021 or free agency until the conclusion of 2024, so prying Freyes from the up-and-coming Padres wouldn’t be an easy task. While Reyes’ work in right field hasn’t been great this year (minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved, neutral Ultimate Zone Rating), he has established himself as an above-average offensive player dating back to his 2018 debut. This season, the right-handed slugger’s slashing .253/.307/.540 (115 wRC+) with the majors’ seventh-most home runs (25). Reyes is also a Statcast favorite, not just because of his impressive xwOBA. He ranks in the 76th percentile or better in expected batting average, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and exit velocity.

Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: xwOBA: .370; real wOBA: .343

  • The numbers aren’t quite up to date for Belt, who collected a pair of hits during the Giants’ destruction of the Rockies on Monday afternoon. They don’t alter the picture much, though – with or without them, the 31-year-old Belt has long been a quality major league hitter. Belt has dealt with his fair share of injuries, however, and isn’t locked up to an appealing contract, which are factors that hamper his trade value. He’s on a $16MM salary this year and will earn the same total in each of the next two seasons. Belt also has the right to block a trade to 10 teams.

Trey Mancini, OF/1B, Orioles: xwOBA: .354; real wOBA: .353

  • There are large xwOBA/wOBA gaps for Smoak, Reyes and Belt, but Mancini’s production is apparently just about where it should be. The 27-year-old has batted a strong .281/.340/.500 (119 wRC+) with 17 homers in 373 PA, and as someone who’s on a minimum salary in 2019 and has three seasons of arbitration control left, he could interest teams as a long-term offensive building block. That said, Mancini brings little to the table on the defensive side, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias doesn’t seem inclined to trade him unless a highly beneficial offer comes along.

Kole Calhoun, OF, Angels: xwOBA: .351; real wOBA: .337

  • Whether the Angels are poised to sell this month is up for debate. After all, they’re a decent 48-46 and five games back of a wild-card spot. If they do deal veterans, though, the 31-year-old Calhoun may hold appeal to other teams. Calhoun has bounced back from a miserable 2018 at the plate to hit .238/.323/.485 (112 wRC+) with 21 homers and a career-high .247 ISO in 373 PA this season, helping put him on track for his fifth campaign of at least 2.0 fWAR. He’s also an adept defender who has posted 2 DRS and a 1.6 UZR in the outfield (mostly right) this year. Because of his solid production this season, Calhoun might not be a pure rental. He’s making $10.5MM now and is controllable through 2020 on a $14MM club option (with a $1MM buyout).

Blue Jays Option Rowdy Tellez

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Following this afternoon’s game, the Blue Jays have optioned 1B/DH Rowdy Tellez to Triple-A Buffalo, per Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star. The move leaves the team without its everyday designated hitter. A corresponding roster move has yet to be announced, though Shi Davidi of Sportsnet suggests that outfielder Billy McKinney could be activated from the injured list.

Tellez has been an everyday player for the Blue Jays, toggling between first base and designated hitter alongside Justin Smoak. Despite an extended look, Tellez has failed to make good on the offensive potential he flashed in a brief big-league stint last season. The 24-year-old has managed just 17 walks this season, good for a 5.9% walk rate and a .281 OBP. He’s slugged 14 home runs, but the overall offensive output has not been enough to justify his presence in the lineup every day. On the bright side, he’ll receive consistent at-bats in the minors, hopefully making the necessary adjustments to vault himself back into a Major League batting order.

With Tellez no longer on the roster and a vacancy at DH, it seems as though the Blue Jays will have a few options as to how they construct their lineup. If McKinney is indeed the corresponding roster move, he could slot into a regular role in right field, while Teoscar Hernandez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looking like the most likely candidates to pick up the bulk of the DH reps—though it’s unlikely the Blue Jays would relegate Guerrero to playing just one side of the ball this early in his development. If not McKinney, Cavan Biggio, who has shown impressive versatility in his debut, could be in line for more regular playing time in the outfield.

Clayton Richard To IL With Lat Strain

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  • The Blue Jays announced they’ve placed Clayton Richard on the 10-day injured list with a left lat strain, activating Edwin Jackson from an IL stint of his own in a corresponding move. Richard departed yesterday’s start against the Yankees after just two innings, leaving the bullpen to handle a hefty workload. The IL stint seems to foreclose any chance the Jays can flip Richard before the trade deadline, but he wouldn’t have been in high demand regardless, as he’s managed only a 5.96 ERA with a woeful 11% strikeout rate over ten starts. The 35-year-old is playing out the final months of a two-year/$6MM contract and is likely headed for a minor-league deal this winter.
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