Latest On Blue Jays’ Training Plans
Every MLB club faces a difficult task in launching and sustaining a 2020 season. But the Blue Jays face some unique challenges as the only affiliated organization located outside of the United States.
The Toronto organization announced today that it will gather its players and personnel at its facility in Dunedin, Florida. The club says it will “begin the intake screening and isolation process” there.
[RELATED: Blue Jays 60-Man Player Pool]
The Jays’ next step will depend upon the views of the relevant Canadian authorities. If approval is granted, the club says it’ll charter a flight to train in Toronto “under a modified quarantine, isolated from the general public.” Otherwise, it’ll keep its employees at the Dunedin facility and undertake Summer Training there.
It was just ten days ago that the Blue Jays halted activities at its spring complex as coronavirus cases hit the neighboring Phillies facility and soared in the state of Florida generally. There was indeed cause for concern, as several players and staff members ended up testing positive for COVID-19 infections.
That mini-outbreak served to highlight the need for strict measures if this campaign is to occur in a reasonably safe manner. That’s all the more true for the Jays. With cases within the organization already, and the situation in Florida only continuing to worsen, gathering in Dunedin will have to be done carefully.
No doubt the Blue Jays are aware of all that and planning accordingly. The team’s stated preference is to train and play in Toronto, which will mean convincing the Canadian federal, provincial, and local governments that it can be done without unreasonable risk. As Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reported earlier today on Twitter, it seems as if that process is moving towards a favorable outcome for the Jays.
Blue Jays Announce Initial 60-Man Player Pool
Today marks the deadline for teams to submit to Major League Baseball their initial spring training player pools, which can comprise up to 60 players. Players are not eligible to participate in either a spring training or regular season game until they are included in the pool. Teams are free to change the makeup of the pools as they see fit. However, players removed from a team’s 60-man (for reasons unrelated to injury, suspension, etc.) must be exposed to other organizations via trade or waivers.
Not all players within a team’s pool are ticketed for MLB playing time, of course. Most teams will include well-regarded but still far-off prospects as a means of getting them training reps with no intention of running them onto a major league diamond this season. A comprehensive review of 2020’s unique set of rules can be found here.
The Blue Jays’ initial player pool consists of the following players.
Right-handed pitchers
- Chase Anderson
- Anthony Bass
- A.J. Cole
- Rafael Dolis
- Wilmer Font
- Sam Gaviglio
- Ken Giles
- Thomas Hatch
- Elvis Luciano
- Alek Manoah
- Julian Merryweather
- Justin Miller
- Patrick Murphy
- Joey Murray
- Nate Pearson
- Hector Perez
- Jake Petricka
- Sean Reid-Foley
- Tanner Roark
- Jordan Romano
- Matt Shoemaker
- Trent Thornton
- Ty Tice
- Jacob Waguespack
- Simeon Woods Richardson
- Shun Yamaguchi
- T.J. Zeuch
Left-handed pitchers
Catchers
Infielders
- Bo Bichette
- Cavan Biggio
- Andy Burns
- Brandon Drury
- Santiago Espinal
- Jordan Groshans
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Joe Panik
- Travis Shaw
- Kevin Smith
- Ruben Tejada
- Rowdy Tellez
Outfielders
Multiple Blue Jays Players, Staff Test Positive For COVID-19; Site For Home Games Remains Unclear
5:01pm: The Blue Jays have asked the Canadian government to allow them to play their season in Toronto, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets (1, 2). Doing so would also enable them to conduct their spring training there. The government should provide an answer within the next two days, per Rosenthal. If it’s a no, the Jays would hold spring training in Dunedin, Fla., with Buffalo as an alternate site.
2:44pm: Multiple Blue Jays players and staff members have tested positive for COVID-19, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reports (Twitter thread). The positive tests are tied to the circumstances that led to the shutdown of the Jays’ spring complex in Dunedin, Fla. last week. The closure of the facility was brought about by a 40-man player displaying symptoms after interacting with Phillies players who eventually tested positive. The exact number of positive tests isn’t publicly known, though The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath tweets that “several” members of the organization tested positive.
The Blue Jays’ circumstances are particularly unique. As MLB’s only Canadian team, it’s not yet clear just where the Jays will host their games. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau recently extended the U.S./Canada border closure for non-essential travel until July 21. That means that while players can travel into the United States, they wouldn’t be able to travel back into Canada without going through a 14-day quarantine process. If those restrictions are relaxed after July 21, the Jays could conceivably still host games at the Rogers Centre (dependent on additional regulations of course), but they’d surely need more notice than a mere two to three days’ advance notice. MLB currently hopes to start the season on July 23 or 24.
However, while most would assume that the league has been in contact with the city of Toronto or the province of Ontario about the possibility of staging games there, that doesn’t appear to be the case. Dr. David Williams, the chief medical officer of Ontario, told TSN’s Scott Mitchell just yesterday (Twitter link):
The Major League Baseball proposal, I’ve seen it and read it. It deals with a lot of aspects there. It doesn’t mention anything about travel to Canada at this time, so if there was some interest in that we’d have to get a proposal from them to see how they would undertake the uniqueness of bringing the team, and if they’ve thought about bringing other teams (to Toronto), how they would work with that up until such time the federal government reduces or eliminates their quarantine law. But that’s still in place at this time. We have ways that we worked with the NHL to consider that. I have not seen anything specific with Major League Baseball at this time.
Perhaps that’s telling, then, that the league’s ultimate plan for the Jays is for games to be staged in the United States — at least in the season’s early stages. Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal has previously suggested that sharing Tropicana Field with the Rays could be a possibility, and Davidi reported recently that there’s been work at TD Ballpark, the Jays’ Dunedin stadium, to bring the lighting up to MLB’s standards for night games. Of course, the recent positive tests in Dunedin aren’t a good first step toward staging regular-season games there.
Meanwhile, agent Rafa Nieves, who represents Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, tells Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes that Hernandez has been told by the team that playing games at the Blue Jays’ Triple-A site in Buffalo, N.Y., is also an option (Twitter link). Both Davidi and Rojas (via Nieves) indicate that the Blue Jays’ hope is understandably to play home games at the Rogers Centre, although at this point it’s clear that there’s no logistical plan in place just yet.
Latest On Potential Changes In Shortened 2020 Season
Major League Baseball has now made clear its hope for players to report to a rebooted training camp on July 1 and a July 24-26 opener. ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweeted last night that the league expects the MLBPA to respond to those dates and the health and safety protocols by 5pm ET today.
Exactly what the final iteration of those health-and-safety protocols will look like isn’t yet clear, although there are some standing indications of what to anticipate. There’s been plenty of back-and-forth about what changes might be put into place for the 2020 season, and while it’s all subject to change until the two sides have a formal agreement, it’s worth taking a pass through where things stand.
The Athletic’s Jayson Stark tweeted yesterday that a universal DH in 2020 was included in the initial version of health and safety protocols. The lack of a formal agreement means that the arrival of the universal DH in 2020 isn’t yet official, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that “both sides see value” in its implementation — at least for this season. The two parties will presumably discuss its implementation in future seasons this winter.
Also likely to remain in place, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, will be the realignment that sees each team play only within its own division and against the five teams of the corresponding division in the other league. The exact permutations of that scheduling arrangement could take a variety of forms (e.g. a pair of three-game series and one four-game series against divisional opponents, plus one four-game series against each of the five teams in the opposing league’s corresponding division), but the goal will be to generally limit travel schedules to the extent possible, not that it’s a perfect setup for all clubs. It’s not as though Seattle and Arlington are exactly next door, for instance.
The travel schedule impacts the Blue Jays, in particular. The lone Canadian club in MLB, the Jays’ scheduling would appear to be up in the air after Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau extended the U.S./Canada border closure for non-essential travel until July 21. Non-essential air travel into the U.S. is still permitted, but returning to Canada would not be so straightforward.
Toronto’s Triple-A club is housed in nearby Buffalo, N.Y., so perhaps that could be deemed an acceptable alternate site, but that remains speculative. The Blue Jays last week closed down their spring facility in Dunedin, Fla. indefinitely after a player who’d been in contact with some of his Phillies peers displayed COVID-19 symptoms. The Wall Street Journal’s Jared Diamond suggests that the Jays could share Tropicana Field with the Rays.
Other changes may well be on the horizon. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the league and union had already agreed to begin extra innings with a runner on second base in an effort to avoid marathon games. (Pitchers would not be charged with an earned run if said runner scores.) They’ve also discussed the possibility of allowing already subbed-out players to reenter the game once it reaches extras and even discussed the possibility of ties in 2020, per Nightengale.
None of that is set in stone until the MLBPA formally agrees to the league’s health and safety protocols. While the ridiculous length and contentious nature of the scheduling half of return-to-play negotiations should caution against any assumptions that they’ll be approved without any pushback at all, we’ll get a better sense of where things stand by 5pm ET today.
Blue Jays Shut Down Spring Facility
The Blue Jays have shut down their Spring Training facility in Dunedin, Fla. after a player displayed symptoms of COVID-19, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports (Twitter thread). There’s no positive test yet, but Passan notes that the player in question is on Toronto’s 40-man roster and had recently spent time with players in the Phillies’ system. The Jays’ Dunedin complex is just six miles from the Phillies’ spring facility in Clearwater, where eight people — five players and three staffers — have tested positive for the coronavirus over the past three days. Another 32 tests of Phillies players and personnel are still pending results.
Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets that about 20 players have been working out at the Jays’ spring facility, including about 10 players who are on the 40-man roster. Passan adds, however, that multiple players have yet to even be tested at all — despite GM Ross Atkins telling him the team has been “overly precautious with testing.” Should reopening the Dunedin facilities untenable, that’d create problems for the Jays even if a 2020 season can come together. As Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith points out, Dunedin has been a fallback option in the event that government regulations prevent the Jays from hosting games at Toronto’s Rogers Centre.
The Blue Jays’ Dunedin closure adds to a growing list of concerns as professional sports teams have sought to begin play after months of shutdowns. Beyond the positive tests in Clearwater and the symptoms in Dunedin, it’s also important to note that the NHL’s Tampa Bay Lightning have shut down their facilities after three players and a pair of staff members tested positive for COVID-19. The NFL’s 49ers also had a player test positive in Nashville, Tenn. earlier today, per NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo. A member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ coaching staff has also tested positive.
Taken together, it’s all a sobering reminder that the largest roadblock to return to regular-season play in any sport is not (and has not been) finances or length of season but the ongoing pandemic. Even if the players in question make full recoveries — which obviously is not a given — they still have families to consider, more at-risk members of the coaching and training staffs surrounding them, umpires, team personnel, etc. Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported this morning that positive infections have already spread to multiple members of the infected members of the Phillies organization. Similar instances of spreading are likely to occur — particularly with positive cases on the rise not only in Florida but also in Arizona, Texas and California, among other states.
Blue Jays Sign 2nd & 3rd-Round Picks
The Blue Jays have made some important strides in sealing up their draft class. As Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (Twitter link) and Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link) report, the Toronto organization has agreed to terms on slightly over-slot bonuses with its second and third-round choices.
Both of the newest Jays are right-handed college hurlers. The former, CJ Van Eyk of Florida State, gets a $1.8MM bonus. The latter, Jacksonville’s Trent Palmer, went for $850K.
While the Blue Jays had to go a bit over the respective pick allocations to get these deals done, it seems fair to assume the club won’t have any trouble finding the extra availability. The club saved quite a bit with its fifth and final selection, Zach Britton, and still has some of that available to use as needed to structure deals with top choice Austin Martin and fourth rounder Nick Frasso.
Van Eyk was viewed by most major pundits as a top-fifty overall prospect. Keith Law of The Athletic was especially bullish, ranking him 23rd among all draft-eligible players. While it sounds as if there are still some things to iron out, the FSU standout is said to possess three promising pitches and a real chance at carving out a career in a MLB rotation.
It so happens that Law was also the chief proponent of Palmer. All other major rankings graded him in the 100+ range, but Law placed him 76th. The enthusiasm is dampened by Palmer’s lack of a projectable frame and occasionally wavering command. Even if he ends up in a relief role, it sounds as if Palmer will warrant a long look as a starter on the Jays’ farm.
Additional Amateur Draft Signings: 6/16/20
We caught up on draft signings earlier today, but a few more trickled out this evening …
- The Tigers have a deal with third-rounder Trei Cruz, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter). A shortstop out of Rice University, Cruz will secure a $900K bonus that lands just over the slot value of $857,400. None of the major draft pundits ranked Cruz among the hundred best draft-eligible prospects, but the Detroit organization was obviously intrigued. If you’re a believer in bloodlines, you can’t do much better than this. Cruz will aim to follow his father, grandfather, and great uncles in appearing in the majors.
- Mets fourth-rounder Matthew Dyer is on board with a $350K bonus, per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo (Twitter link). That’ll save the New York org nearly $230K to apply to other draftees. Dyer, an Arizona product, ranked 333rd on Baseball America’s final draft board. Mayo credits him with a strong throwing arm and good athleticism for a backstop.
- The Blue Jays have added Zach Britton — not to be confused with Yankees reliever Zack (formerly Zach) Britton. This new Zach Britton landed $97,500 from the Toronto organization, freeing the club to allocate the rest of the $410,100 slot value elsewhere. Britton spent time in the outfield and behind the dish at Louisville. BA graded him just inside the top 200 prospects available for selection this year. Britton was slashing .322/.446/.542 when the season was cut short.
- Fifth rounder Jeff Hakanson is in agreement with the Rays on a bonus, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Dollar values aren’t yet known publicly, but it seems likely to be an under-slot deal. Hakanson, a righty out of Central Florida, wasn’t ranked on any of the major boards. His slot comes with a $340K bonus pool allocation.
- The Cardinals announced an agreement with their own fifth-round selection, Long Beach State outfielder LJ Jones IV. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo tweets that Jones has picked up a $100K bonus, meaning the Cards have another $250,300 to work with in signing other players. Jones didn’t merit mention in any rankings either, though the redshirt sophomore never really got a chance to showcase himself in college owing to injuries and the coronavirus situation.
Each AL Team’s Top Recent Draft Class
With the MLB draft scheduled for next week, let’s take a look at each American League team’s most successful draft class in recent memory. Using Baseball Reference’s draft tracker, we can sum the combined career bWAR of each player selected by each team in a given year. It’s a simple shorthand, not a perfect measure, but it’ll give some insight into which teams have really hit in certain years.
First, a quick note on the methodology. For simplicity, we’re limiting this search to the 2006-2015 classes. A player’s value is only included if he signed with the club, although he needn’t have actually played for his drafting team in the majors. (So, the 2008 Yankees don’t get credit for drafting but failing to sign Gerrit Cole, while the 2007 Red Sox do get credit for drafting and signing Anthony Rizzo, even though he was traded before ever playing an MLB game for Boston). Of course, a player drafted in 2006 has had more time to rack up value than one drafted in 2015, so we’ll note in each team’s capsule if a more recent class is on the verge of taking over from an older class. On to the results…
- Angels: 2009 (109.3 bWAR) – Go figure. Picking one of the greatest players of all time is a heck of a way to kick off a draft class. But this 2009 class wasn’t just about Mike Trout, even if he’s accounted for about two-thirds of its cumulative value. That year, the Angels also selected Patrick Corbin, Randal Grichuk, Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs. Former MLBTR contributor Chuck Wassterstrom took a behind-the-scenes look at this class a few years ago.
- Astros: 2009 (53.2 bWAR) – Not a single one of the Astros’ top five rounders in 2009 reached the majors. The late rounds, though, were a smashing success with J.D. Martinez (20th), Dallas Keuchel (7th) and Kiké Hernández (6th) accounting for the class’ value. Of course, Martinez did his damage elsewhere after the Astros released him.
- A’s: 2012 (37.7 bWAR) – The A’s 2012 class produced seven big leaguers, most notably Matt Olson. He leads a group that also included Addison Russell and Max Muncy, who have played most or all of their MLB careers elsewhere.
- Blue Jays: 2009 (39.2 bWAR) – They won’t get credit for selecting James Paxton in supplemental round one here, but Yan Gomes was a nice find in the tenth round, though he would play only briefly in Toronto before being dealt to Cleveland. Outside of Gomes, the Blue Jays found a few nice role players, including Jake Marisnick, Aaron Loup, Ryan Goins, and others.
- Indians: 2011 (38.7 bWAR) – Selecting Francisco Lindor eighth overall in 2011 was a key to Cleveland’s 2016 AL pennant. So too was then-closer Cody Allen, whom they grabbed in the 23rd round. With Lindor mid-prime, the class’ value should just continue to grow.
- Mariners: 2006 (40.2 bWAR) – Doug Fister and Chris Tillman went on to become mid-rotation starters for a time (Fister arguably even a bit more than that), albeit with other clubs. Fifth overall pick Brandon Morrow disappointed as a starter but had a late-career renaissance as a quality reliever before various injuries derailed him.
- Orioles: 2007 (43.2 bWAR) – Although only four players from this class would wind up making the Majors, the combination of Jake Arrieta and Matt Wieters makes the 2007 draft a pretty solid one for the O’s. While Wieters, the fifth overall pick, maybe didn’t turn out to be the franchise cornerstone he was hailed to be, he has nonetheless had a nice career. Arrieta had a slow start in Baltimore, but would of course earn a Cy Young with the Cubs. It’s worth noting that this spot will be taken by the 2010 class before too long, almost entirely on the back of Manny Machado.
- Rangers: 2008 (33.3 bWAR) – Despite garnering only a 25th-round selection, Tanner Roark has turned out to be the most productive player in this class. First-round choice Justin Smoak deserves a mention too, though his career didn’t really take off until he’d been traded out of Texas. The 2011 class, headed by Kyle Hendricks, is not far behind and could claim this title in the near future.
- Rays: 2006 (81.5 bWAR) – Franchise legend Evan Longoria does a lot of the heavy lifting for this class, having amassed 56 total WAR by age 34. Even so, there are some other quality players here: Desmond Jennings and Alex Cobb are the other notables, with Jennings carving out a solid MLB career as a tenth-round pick.
- Red Sox: 2011 (70.2 bWAR) – This is far and away the best Sox draft class in recent memory, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone. Mookie Betts, one of the finest players in baseball, established himself as Boston’s franchise player after he was selected in the fifth round. Even outside of Betts, this class yielded a few key members of the Red Sox 2018 World Series team, with Jackie Bradley Jr. and relief ace Matt Barnes also coming out of that draft.
- Royals: 2007 (47.1 bWAR) – Speaking of drafting World Series contributors, the Royals in 2007 added both Mike Moustakas and Greg Holland, both of whom turned out to be central in the Royals’ playoff runs in 2014 and 2015. And that’s before mentioning third-rounder Danny Duffy, who’s still with Kansas City and inked a nice extension prior to 2017.
- Tigers: 2007 (20.6 bWAR) – With just 20.6 WAR, the Tigers’ best draft in recent memory doesn’t compare favorably to the rest of the AL, and that partly illuminates the franchise’s current standing in baseball. The notable player from the 2007 class is Rick Porcello, who had some nice years to begin his career with the Tigers and would later win a Cy Young. Maybe they get bonus points for discovering high-schooler D.J. LeMahieu, who wouldn’t sign with the team, in round 41?
- Twins: 2009 (32.4 bWAR) – Between Kyle Gibson and Brian Dozier, the Twins drafted a pair of staples on the Minnesota teams of the mid-2010s. But with both playing elsewhere now, keep an eye on the 2012 draft class, which features a trio of young centerpieces for a new era of Twins baseball: Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, and Taylor Rogers are up-and-comers who could rack up a lot of value as they enter their primes.
- White Sox: 2010 (55.3 bWAR) – Chris Sale carries the 2010 class for the South Siders, by far the best draftee in an otherwise mediocre string of years for Chicago. That said, 2010 yielded a couple of other role players for the White Sox, with Addison Reed, Jake Petricka, and Tyler Saladino all making nice MLB contributions.
- Yankees: 2006 (69.4 bWAR) – Whereas many teams’ success in a given year is determined by one standout player, the Yankees’ installment on this list displays a surprising breadth of quality players, without a single superstar. Evidently, the 2006 Yankees cornered the market on MLB relievers: Ian Kennedy, David Robertson, Dellin Betances, Mark Melancon, and Joba Chamberlain are the five most productive players from the Bombers’ draft that year (granted, Kennedy didn’t transition to the bullpen until last year).
The Jays Turned A Free Agent Whiff Into An Elite Pitching Prospect
The 2016 season was a pivotal year for the Blue Jays. Fresh off an ALCS loss to the Royals in 2015, the Jays entered the year with reigning MVP Josh Donaldson set to play out his age-30 campaign and a series of notable free agents, headlined by Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. They’d surrendered two MLB-ready arms — Daniel Norris and Matthew Boyd — for a David Price rental the prior summer and parted with another top pitching prospect (Jeff Hoffman) to escape their commitment to the declining Jose Reyes and swap him out for Troy Tulowitzki. Some of the dreaded “closing window” narratives were surrounding the club, and the Jays were clearly in win-now mode.
Toronto again made the playoffs, again won a Division Series matchup over the Rangers … and again fell to an AL Central club in the League Championship Series — this time the Indians. The offseason came around, and Toronto made issued a pair of no-brainer qualifying offers to Bautista and Encarnacion, who were two of the top bats on that winter’s market.
From the begining, Encarnacion seemed to be the bigger target. Bautista had dropped some jaws in Spring 2016 when talking about his asking price on a long-term deal, but Encarnacion was younger and seemingly more affordable. Toronto was aggressive early in the winter, reportedly putting forth a four-year offer that carried in the vicinity of $80MM of guaranteed money. There were some expectations that winter that Encarnacion could best that mark — we at MLBTR pegged him for four years at a slightly higher annual rate — and his camp seemed to prefer to explore the market before taking that offer. That decision blew up in Encarnacion’s face, though, as Toronto pivoted almost instantly and signed Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33MM deal. By Nov. 18, it appeared Encarnacion had been replaced.
There were still some rumors about a potential reunion even after Morales was signed, but it never seemed likely that the Jays would commit to Morales at DH and Encarnacion at first base — tying up long-term dollars in a pair of sluggers best suited for DH work. Encarnacion drew varying levels of interest from the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers, but in the end, his market bizarrely came down to a bidding war between two of the game’s smaller-payroll clubs: the Athletics and the Indians.
Oakland likely saw a chance to add a premium bat at an affordable rate. Encarnacion’s market had collapsed to the point where he was reportedly mulling a shorter offer with a roughly $25MM annual value (presumably a two-year deal) with the A’s. The Indians, fresh off a World Series loss, were in go-for-it mode with extra cash thanks to that deep postseason run. Encarnacion signed a three-year, $60MM deal with Cleveland that contained a fourth-year option which would get him to the $80MM mark he’d previously passed up.
The Jays took some heat from the deal both among media pundits and their fans. Encarnacion was the clear better player and ultimately cost less than twice what Toronto gave Morales. And from an on-field perspective, those criticisms were 100 percent valid. Over the first two years of each player’s three-year pact, here’s how they performed:
- Morales: .249/.318/.442, 49 home runs, 40 doubles in 1079 plate appearances (103 OPS+, 102 wRC+; 0.8 bWAR, -0.4 fWAR)
- Encarnacion: .252/.358/.490, 70 home runs, 36 doubles, two triples in 1248 PAs (123 OPS+, 123 wRC+; 4.7 bWAR, 3.3 fWAR)
Neither one played out the third year of his contract with the team that signed him. Morales was traded to the Athletics on the eve of Opening Day 2019, and Encarnacion had been moved to the Mariners in a complex three-team deal that sent Carlos Santana back to Cleveland with Yandy Diaz and others landing in Tampa Bay.
Many onlookers will say that the Encarnacion camp misread the market after their initial talks with teams. Some would argue that it was the Jays who misread things when they pivoted to Morales so quickly. You can argue that both parties failed to properly evaluate the free-agent landscape.
Encarnacion got his $60MM and then signed for another $12MM with the White Sox this winter, so he ultimately didn’t fall much shy of that reported four-year, $80MM sum. With the benefit of hindsight, it looks like the Jays came away with the short end of the stick — at least until you consider the compensatory draft pick they netted when Cleveland inked Encarnacion. Because the guarantee was greater than $50MM, the Jays’ comp pick landed between Round 1 and Competitive Balance Round A. That pick proved to be No. 28 overall, which Toronto used to select right-hander Nate Pearson.
Not only is Pearson now the runaway top Blue Jays’ prospect — he’s one of the best pitching prospects on the planet. The 23-year-old ranks among the 10 best prospects in baseball at Baseball America, MLB.com and FanGraphs, drawing considerable praise for his blistering triple-digit heater and a deep arsenal of secondary pitches. When ranking Pearson as baseball’s No. 8 overall prospect this winter, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote that he’s personally seen Pearson’s slider climb as high as 95 mph, adding that the pitch generally sits in the low 90s. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com write that Pearson has “as high a ceiling as any pitching prospect in the game.”
It’s true that Pearson has yet to demonstrate the ability to make 30 starts in a season, although that’s due largely to a fractured forearm sustained when he was hit by a comeback line drive. Pitchers who throw this hard will always give some onlookers a red flag, and Pearson did have a screw put into his right elbow during high school. He was healthy in junior college, though, and the Jays diligently kept his innings count down in 2019 after he threw just 22 innings in 2018. Pearson reached 101 2/3 frames last year, spinning a dominant 2.30 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.70 HR/9 and a ground-ball rate near 40 percent. He also topped out at Triple-A in his first full, healthy pro season and is widely expected to make his MLB debut in 2020.
Not every draft pick is guaranteed to be a hit, as evidenced by the Jays’ actual, organic first-round pick in the same 2017 draft that produced Pearson. Shortstop Logan Warmoth, selected out of UNC six picks prior to Pearson, has managed a .255/.332/.346 batting line in 947 pro plate appearances. He was a high-end draft prospect but doesn’t currently rank inside Toronto’s top 30 farmhands at MLB.com or their Top 38 at FanGraphs. Not exactly ideal for a recent first-rounder.
Luckily for the Jays, Encarnacion’s decision not to take their four-year offer — which would’ve run through the 2020 season — both saved them some cash and gave them a second bite at the first-round apple in 2017. And thanks to their scouting department’s decision to take a chance on a towering, flamethrowing righty in spite of a high school elbow scare, the Jays have a potential ace in the making who is on the cusp of reaching the big leagues.
Shutdown Notes: Undrafted Players, Pitcher Usage, Blue Jays
As MLB prepares its proposal to the MLBPA on economics issues next Tuesday, let’s take a look at some other notes related to the league’s shutdown.
- In the wake of massive revenue losses, MLB has instituted a five round draft in 2020, down from its usual forty, with undrafted players’ signing bonuses capped at $20K. Limiting the selection pool will no doubt push many talented prep prospects to college, but it could also spur some to take a less traditional route. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe argues the shortened draft and spending limits could push some undrafted players to pursue immediate pro opportunities in Japan or South Korea, where their earning potential would be significantly higher. Indeed, at least one team in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball is already preparing for an unusually high volume of undrafted talent, Speier reports. Such a move wouldn’t be entirely without precedent. Right-hander Carter Stewart signed a six-year deal with NPB’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in lieu of reentering the MLB draft after medical issues derailed his talks with the Braves, who had selected him in the first round out of high school in 2018.
- More from Speier, who also examines the potential repercussions of the shutdown on pitcher usage this season. He spoke with Dr. Christopher Ahmad, who warned earlier this month that play stoppages at all levels could lead to a spike in Tommy John surgeries if pitchers attempt to ramp back up too quickly. Ahmad reiterated to Speier that the risks may not be as prevalent for MLB players, whose personal training has been better regimented and supervised remotely by club staff, than they are for amateur players who have had less oversight in recent months. Nevertheless, MLB players won’t be immune from consequences if the league is able to return. An abbreviated Spring Training 2.0 and likely expansion of rosters will cause teams to curtail their pitchers’ workloads whenever possible, Speier feels.
- Yesterday, the Blue Jays guaranteed their employees there would be no furloughs or layoffs through at least October 1. Team president Mark Shapiro tells John Lott of the Athletic the organization’s ability to keep people on-board enables them to deploy staff in unconventional ways. Most notably, minor-league coaches and analysts, who in a normal setting would have daily gameday responsibilities, have been brought into the Blue Jays’ draft process this year. Those coaches and player development staff have taken on a larger than normal role in evaluating potential selections’ mechanics and projections, Shapiro tells Lott.