The Braves and Blue Jays haven’t had any discussions about Marcus Stroman, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link). While Stroman would be a fit on at least half the teams in the league, Atlanta stands out as a natural landing spot due to both the Braves’ talented but generally inexperienced rotation, and the connection between Stroman and Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos (who had the same job in Toronto from 2009-15). While a lack of talks to this point doesn’t mean that Stroman couldn’t eventually become a Braves target, Atlanta has been linked to other pitchers such as Madison Bumgarner or Zack Wheeler, and could simply prefer one of those players (or another arm altogether) to Stroman.
Blue Jays Rumors
Eric Sogard: Face Of MLB [Trade Deadline]?
You remember Eric Sogard. He once rode his rec spec-chic good looks and charmingly scrappy play to internet stardom, nearly winning the memorable “Face of MLB” contest through a thrilling hijacking effort launched by the crafty A’s faithful.
The good times didn’t last in Oakland. Sogard was a solid contributor in 2013, but his high-contact, low-power approach fizzled as he turned in consecutive sub-70 wRC+ seasons at the plate. There was a second act in Milwaukee in 2017, when Sogard turned in a remarkable combination of 45 walks against 37 strikeouts despite a near-total absence of power (.104 ISO). But he collapsed in the following campaign, carrying a ghastly .134/.241/.165 slash in 113 plate appearances for the Brewers.
Thus it was with little fanfare that the Blue Jays inked Sogard to a minors pact this past offseason. He was a solid depth piece, destined to open the year at Triple-A. At most, Jays fans might have hoped they’d finally have an organizational replacement for fan-favorite Ryan Goins, a utility infielder who was feted as a hero upon his return to Toronto. He had been dumped unceremoniously the winter prior after appearing in a career-high 143 games, sneaking the ball over the right field wall nine times and producing 62 ribbies. (That last state is the one that Jays announcer Buck Martinez chose to support his questionable assertion, in the above-linked video, that Goins had a “great year” in 2017. Goins slashed .237/.286/.356.)
As it turns out, Sogard was called upon by the Jays when youngster Lourdes Gurriel Jr. got the yips. Sogard had hit well at Triple-A, mostly by hounding young pitchers into walks. He drew seven free passes against just four strikeouts in 38 plate appearances while socking a dinger and a pair of doubles among his eight base knocks.
There was nothing remarkable about any of this … until the ghost of Goins inhabited Sogard’s spectacles. Those nine long balls Goins hit in his legend-making campaign? Well, Sogard has matched him already in nearly half the tries. The 33-year-old journeyman is now through 261 plate appearances of .294/.364/.478 hitting in Toronto, handily topping even mid-prime Goins in output. He’s hitting well against righties but doing even more damage against same-handed pitching (137 wRC+).
Just what is going on here? Is it remotely sustainable? Is Sogard a legit deadline trade chip for the rebuilding Toronto team?
This Goins-Sogard thing has had far longer legs than I anticipated when I sat down to write this, but it will help illustrate one more point. In large part, it seems Goins just happened to loft a few over the course of the season. His nine homers averaged 400 feet with a 27.6 degree average launch angle. Otherwise, he averaged only an 8.3 degree launch angle that season and has typically sat lower even than that.
Sogard? Much as with his predecessor, every single one of his homers has gone down the right field line — two-thirds of them at the Rogers Centre. They’re likewise flying on fairly lofty flight paths — moreso, in fact. Sogard’s mean dinger is taking a parabolic path of 29.6 degrees, placing him 122nd on the list of all home run hitters in the majors this year, sitting comfortably among between a bunch of double-digit dinger men.
That’s about where the similarities end. Sogard is producing some true wall-scrapers. His long balls are averaging just 380 feet, good for 399th of 452 players registered by Statcast. They have left the bat at a meager 96.5 mph average exit velo. That’s just 445th of 456 players in the database; you have to run up the board to Yuli Gurriel (14 homers at a 99.4 mph average exit velo) to find another hitter with more long balls.
The baseball may not be juiced, per se, but it sure is flying like never before. And Sogard is taking full advantage, maxing out his meager power to the breaking point. He currently owns a .184 isolated power mark — more than double his career average (.090) — despite a meek 20.7% hard-hit rate, 85.3 mph average exit velocity, and grand total of three barreled balls this season. Oh, and he’s also sending the ball skyward like never before, with a hefty 19.2 degree average launch angle.
Now, I’m not going to sit here and tell you that Sogard absolutely can’t keep things going like this. But Rogers Centre has borne witness to more long balls than any other MLB stadium this year. The Jays’ pitchers are playing their part in that, to be sure. But let’s just say that teams weighing a move for Sogard will want to do some ballpark dimension overlays before pulling the trigger.
Even if many of his dingers would’ve snuck out elsewhere, it seems wise to bake in a healthy amount of anticipated regression. Sogard does possess undeniable mastery of the strike zone and outstanding contact ability. He carries a 3.7% swinging-strike rate this year and sits under four percent over his career. This isn’t a player selling out to put the ball over the wall. But it’s also not one who’s newly stinging the sphere.
Sogard, a poster boy? In a sense, yeah. Teams considering him will need to closely parse the changes to the broader state of play and try to assess how he’ll fit in moving forward. Can Sogard keep tucking balls into the front rows of the right field bleachers? That depends not only upon a look at Sogard, but other matters. Can pitchers find a way to adjust to these universal changes? Will the baseball undergo further physical change? Likewise, other deadline targets — those performing well and those struggling to adapt, hitters and pitchers alike — will be viewed with one eye on the ever-flying long ball.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Stroman: Jays "Haven't Had Me In Their Plans For The Future"
Blue Jays right-hander and prime trade chip Marcus Stroman has been dealing with a left pectoral issue since June 29, but he expects to return to the mound Sunday, Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets. Stroman’s set to take the ball at Yankee Stadium against a team that has shown interest in acquiring him prior to the July 31 deadline. Whether it’s New York or another club that reels in the 28-year-old, expectations are he won’t be a member of Toronto’s roster once the calendar reaches August. That isn’t lost on Stroman. Regarding the Blue Jays, Stroman told Mitchell, “They haven’t had me in their plans for the future, and I’ve come to terms with it.”
Yankees, Twins Have Each Asked About Package Deal For Stroman, Giles
The Blue Jays have one of the best starters (Marcus Stroman) and one of the best relievers (Ken Giles) available on this summer’s trade market, and TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweets that teams have been expressing interest in acquiring both in the same package. Both the Twins and the Yankees have reached out to Toronto to express interest in a single trade to net both pitchers, per Mitchell, who cautions that the organization’s preference may be to maximize the return by orchestrating separate trades.
Minnesota’s interest in Giles (and relief help in general) has already been reported. But for all the help the Twins could use in the ’pen, the rotation is also a potential area of focus. The wheels have come off the Martin Perez project of late, as the lefty has been hammered for a 5.37 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 0.85 HR/9 and a 54.6 percent grounder rate across his past 10 starts. And while Michael Pineda has improved in recent weeks as he distances himself from 2017 Tommy John surgery, he also figures to have his workload more carefully managed late in the season.
The Yankees are a similarly logical landing spot for Stroman. Luis Severino has yet to pitch this season due to multiple injuries, while each of James Paxton, Domingo German and CC Sabathia has spent time on the injured list. Left-hander J.A. Happ has struggled as well (5.02 ERA, 5.35 FIP in 89 12/3 innings) — unable to replicate a quartet of strong seasons from 2015-18.
Stroman recently had a bit of a health scare, exiting his last outing against the Royals due to a pectoral cramp. His final start prior to the All-Star break was skipped, but Stroman isn’t expected to miss time beyond that. If the issue is as minor as it appears to be, Stroman’s value wouldn’t be likely to take a hit. It seems quite likely that Stroman will be wearing a new uniform come Aug. 1, although Atkins danced around the matter without addressing the likelihood of a deal in a recent meeting with the Toronto media (link via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet):
I would say this: Marcus has put himself in an incredible position throughout his career, not just over the last four months. He has been durable. He has performed at an exceptionally high rate. He’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball over the last three years and because of that he is in a great position for his future with the Toronto Blue Jays and there are 29 other teams that are thinking the same way, that they would love to have someone that has been durable and has been productive. We’ll see. With another year of control for us, that’s attractive to us, that’s extremely attractive to other teams, as well. He’s put himself in a remarkable spot and earned all of that respect.
As for Giles, he may appear to be somewhat of a luxury for a deep Yankees relief corps, but it’s also true that the ’pen hasn’t been as dominant as many might have expected. Aroldis Chapman and Tommy Kahnle have thrived, and Chad Green looks reborn since a brief demotion to Triple-A in late April. Adam Ottavino has a sub-2.00 ERA but 6.1 BB/9 mark. Zack Britton’s bat-missing ability still hasn’t returned, as his 6.3 K/9 mark isn’t much higher than his 4.9 BB/9. Jonathan Holder had to be optioned to the minors after struggling to keep his ERA under 7.00. Dellin Betances, like Severino, hasn’t pitched in 2019.
Either Stroman or Giles on his own would have a fairly notable asking price, so adding both at once may very well teeter on exorbitant. The Jays seem likely to move both, though, and they’re also expected to gauge interest in Justin Smoak, Freddy Galvis, Aaron Sanchez, Eric Sogard, Daniel Hudson and other veterans as their rebuilding efforts continue.
Twins Have Shown Interest In Ken Giles, Kirby Yates
The Twins’ need for bullpen help has been apparent for much of the season, and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that they’ve “definitely checked on” a pair of the market’s top options: Blue Jays closer Ken Giles and Padres closer Kirby Yates. Both right-handers are controlled through the 2020 season via arbitration. Neal notes that the Blue Jays and Padres both had scouts on hand to watch the Twins’ Triple-A club recently, as did the Diamondbacks and Pirates (presumably, in addition to multiple other organizations).
Minnesota has seen the division-rival Indians creep back into the divisional picture with a six-game winning streak to close out the first half. The Twins took two out of three from the Rangers to finish out the half and were in position for a potential sweep Sunday. However, the offense couldn’t break a tie before the ’pen allowed a trio of runs in the top of the 11th inning.
Left-hander Taylor Rogers has quietly broken through as one of baseball’s best relievers. He boasts a 1.56 ERA with 11.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9 and a 46.9 percent grounder rate in 86 2/3 innings dating back to last June, when he began heavily relying on a slider that transformed his arsenal and perhaps his career. Minnesota has also received strong output from 30-year-old rookie right-hander Ryne Harper.
Looking past that pairing, Tyler Duffey has generally been sharp but has stumbled recently, with runs allowed in three of four outings. Trevor May and Matt Magill are both missing bats at high clips but also issuing far too many walks. Offseason signee Blake Parker has has a solid ERA and 10 saves but is averaging a sky-high 2.03 HR/9 with too many walks himself. He’s unlikely to sustain his 3.77 ERA (5.72 FIP, 4.74 xFIP). Journeyman Mike Morin has a 3.18 ERA in 22 2/3 innings but has only fanned 11 hitters in that time.
Those seven names lead Twins relievers in innings pitched, but Minnesota has utilized another 13 arms out of the ’pen so far in 2019. Most have struggled considerably. Twins relievers do rank either 12th or 13th in the Majors in collective ERA, FIP and xFIP, but it’s been a top-heavy unit that, like any contender’s bullpen, would benefit significantly from another experienced late-inning arm.
Giles, 28, is earning $6.3MM and is arguably in the midst of his best season in the Majors. Through 31 innings, he’s pitched to a 1.45 ERA with a career-high 15.4 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and 0.58 HR/9. Josh Hader is the only qualified pitcher in baseball with a higher swinging-strike rate than Giles’ ridiculous 20.4 percent mark. Giles also ranks in the top 10 in terms of opponents’ chase rate (39.1 percent) and average fastball velocity (97.3 mph). With the Blue Jays in a rebuild and already well out of playoff contention, he’s among the safest bets to be traded in all of MLB.
Yates, 32, has been even better. The second waiver-claim-turned-relief-ace the Padres have unearthed in the past couple of seasons, Yates erupted as one baseball’s premier relievers upon adopting a splitter that ranks as one of the game’s most effective offerings. He’s recorded video-game numbers so far in 2019, with a 1.15 ERA, 13.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.23 HR/9 and a 48 percent grounder rate. He’s being paid at an even more affordable $3.0625MM rate in 2019, but San Diego, unlike Toronto, is firmly in the postseason picture. The Padres are an insurmountable 14 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West but sit just two games out of a Wild Card spot. Reports have indicated that the Padres would need an “overwhelming offer” or “unforeseen haul” in order to move Yates.
It stands to reason that the Twins have checked in far more relievers than just these two, of course. Twins brass has surely checked in on the majority of relievers publicly known to be available — and quite likely several that don’t stand out as readily apparent trade candidates. It’s perhaps of some note that both players listed are controlled beyond the 2019 campaign, though Minnesota has also been connected to Giants closer Will Smith — a free agent at season’s end. If the Twins do prefer relievers controlled through at least 2020, some other options would include San Francisco’s Sam Dyson (profiled here last Friday), Detroit’s Shane Greene, Baltimore’s Mychal Givens, Seattle’s Roenis Elias and Kansas City’s Ian Kennedy.
Jays Hopeful Marcus Stroman Will Return Immediately After All-Star Break
- Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman will not take the ball again before the All-Star break, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets. Stroman hasn’t pitched since he exited a June 29 start with a left pectoral cramp, though the injury may not be severe enough to prevent him from participating in the All-Star Game, according to Nicholson-Smith. Regardless, the team’s hope is he’ll start its first game after the break. The fact that Stroman’s one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates makes his health all the more crucial with the July 31 deadline coming up.
Marcus Stroman Scratched From Thursday Start
- Marcus Stroman was originally scheduled to start for the Blue Jays against the Red Sox tonight, but the team has opted to instead use Derek Law as an opener and Thomas Pannone as a bulk pitcher. Stroman left his last outing with a left pectoral cramp, and the Jays will delay his next start by at least one day, though “there’s a chance that he won’t pitch until after the All-Star break,” manager Charlie Montoyo told media (including MLB.com’s Alexis Brudnicki. “He’s still the same way, day to day,” Montoyo said. “But again, if he’s not 100 percent, we’re not going to pitch him….If he plays catch today and feels like he could throw a bullpen or something nice and easy, that he could go, then we’ll pitch him.” Stroman’s injury isn’t thought to be serious, though the Blue Jays are being as cautious as possible with their ace, particularly given his status as one of the game’s top trade deadline candidates.
The Blue Jays’ Potential Outfield Savior
This has been anything but a productive season for the Blue Jays’ outfield, which ranks at the absolute bottom of the majors in fWAR (minus-1.0) and second last in wRC+ (75). Center fielder Randal Grichuk has fallen well short of expectations after signing a five-year, $52MM extension in early April, while neither corner outfielders Teoscar Hernandez nor Billy McKinney have come close to replicating above-average offensive showings from 2018. But Toronto’s outfield does have a saving grace in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who – two-plus years after joining the franchise – is now delivering on the considerable hype he garnered as a prospect.
Gurriel signed with the Blue Jays out of Cuba in November 2016, ending a months-long derby in free agency which saw several teams court him. He ultimately accepted a seven-year, $22MM offer from the Blue Jays, who hardly broke the bank for his services. Had Gurriel failed in Toronto, it wouldn’t have done much damage to the team’s books. Had he succeeded, on the other hand, Toronto would have had a steal on its hands. It now looks like a case of the latter.
Gurriel debuted with the Blue Jays last year and showed off legitimate offensive promise, slashing .281/.309/.446 (103 wRC+) with 11 home runs in 263 plate appearances. He did amass 59 strikeouts against just nine walks, though, while drawing atrocious defensive grades in the middle infield. Gurriel totaled minus-12 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-7.0 Ultimate Zone Rating in almost 550 innings divided between shortstop and second base.
Despite his infield woes a year ago, Gurriel opened 2019 as Toronto’s top option at second base. It didn’t last long, though. The team optioned Gurriel to Triple-A Buffalo in mid-April, in part because he wasn’t doing much at the plate, but has reaped the rewards since then.
The Blue Jays had Gurriel work in the grass during his minor league demotion and now appear to have an outfield cornerstone in their midst. When the Blue Jays sent the 25-year-old down, he owned a meager .175/.250/.275 line in 29 at-bats. Two and a half months later, he has teed off on major league pitching to the tune of a .318/.366/.642 line with 14 home runs in 191 plate appearances. Among major league hitters who have accrued at least 190 trips to the plate, Gurriel’s 163 wRC+ ranks seventh. On the other side, both DRS and UZR have graded him as a scratch defender in left field since he returned from Buffalo.
To this point, the athletic Gurriel seems cut out for his new position, but how sustainable is his offensive outburst? Well, his 25.1 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate aren’t particularly promising, and he sports a .365 batting average on balls in play that won’t hold. He’s also making far less contact and swinging and missing more than he did a year ago. That said, encouraging signs abound. Gurriel may not be making as much contact as he did in 2018, but his hard-hit rate has risen almost 14 percent since then, according to FanGraphs. A drastic increase in fly ball rate, a four-degree rise in launch angle and a noticeable drop in grounders further help explain his power uptick.
Gurriel’s current weighted on-base average, .413, ranks in the top 4 percent of the majors, per Statcast. That’s probably not sustainable, though other indicators show Toronto has a real building block on its hands. The right-handed Gurriel ranks closer to the top of the league than the bottom in expected batting average (61st percentile), average exit velocity (65th percentile), expected wOBA (75th percentile), hard-hit percentage (87th percentage) and expected slugging percentage (93rd percentile). Gurriel’s .361 xwOBA sandwiches him between the likes of Charlie Blackmon and Francisco Lindor, among a slew of other familiar names. It helps that Gurriel hasn’t been vulnerable against lefty or right pitchers, whom he has crushed to varying degrees, or particular offerings. Gurriel has posted an xwOBA ranging between .356 and .477 against fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches, says Statcast.
Back when Toronto signed Gurriel, the hope for the team was that he’d evolve into an indispensable piece of its infield. It now looks as though he’s turning into an integral part of the Blue Jays’ outfield, which no doubt stands as a major victory – especially with young second baseman Cavan Biggio and shortstop prospect Bo Bichette in the mix. With Gurriel, Biggio, Bichette and budding third base star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in line to comprise almost half of Toronto’s attack for the long haul, an enviable offensive core looks to be taking shape up north.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Marcus Stroman Leaves Start With Apparent Injury
Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman left his start against the Royals in the fifth inning Saturday with “discomfort,” Shi Davidi of Sportsnet tweets. Stroman’s final pitch – a two-seam fastball – clocked in at 89.5 mph, down about 3 mph from his typical velocity, per Davidi. While Stroman’s status isn’t yet known, a serious injury would be a rather unfortunate turn of events for Toronto leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. Stroman, if healthy, figures to end up as one of the best starters on the move over the next month. [UPDATE: Stroman has a left shoulder pectoral cramp, Scott Mitchell of TSN was among those to report. He won’t miss any time, manager Charlie Montoyo told Davidi and others.]
Ryan Borucki Out Until At Least End Of July
- Blue Jays lefty Ryan Borucki will need at least three to four minor league rehab starts before making his 2019 major league debut, manager Charlie Montoyo said Friday (via Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com). Borucki’s not on track to rejoin Toronto until the end of July as a result. Elbow problems have kept the 25-year-old Borucki from building on an encouraging 2018 rookie campaign. The starter turned in a 3.87 ERA/3.80 FIP with 6.17 K/9, 3.04 BB/9 and a 46.8 percent grounder rate over 97 2/3 frames last year.
