Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #3: Jays Get An All-Star Slugger
With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7, No. 6, No. 5 and No. 4. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 3…
The Blue Jays had made it as far as the ALCS in both 2015 and 2016 and were looking to compete again in 2017. The saw both José Bautista and Edwin Encarnación become free agents after 2016 but were able to re-sign Bautista. Encarnación got away, but they tried to replace him by signing Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce, while also fortifying the bullpen with signings of Joe Smith and J.P. Howell.
Unfortunately, the Jays couldn’t keep it going for a third straight year. By July 31, they were 49-57 and in last place in the American League East, nine games out in the division and seven games back in the Wild Card race. They decided to do some selling, trading Smith to Cleveland and also trading Francisco Liriano to Houston.
Liriano, 33 at that time, had just been acquired by the Jays from the Pirates in a deadline deal one year earlier. It was essentially a salary dump for the Bucs, as the Jays took on all of what remained of Liriano’s contract. The Pirates were grateful enough for that kindness that they included prospects Harold Ramírez and Reese McGuire in the deal, taking back only Drew Hutchison in return. Neither Ramírez or McGuire would establish themselves in the majors with the Jays, though they have each now done so for AL East rivals. Liriano had a 5.46 ERA going into that trade but finished the season strong, posting a 2.92 ERA with the Jays and helping them get into the playoffs.
However, he was struggling again in 2017, as he had a 5.88 ERA through 18 starts with Toronto. He was still enjoying good results against lefties, as they had hit just .230/.254/.361 against him on the year. The Astros decided to take a shot on grabbing Liriano and converting him into a left-on-left relief specialist, despite the fact that he had worked almost exclusively as a starter in his career.
Liriano was making $13MM that year, with about $4.48MM still remaining to be paid out at the time of the deal. That would have been a fine salary for a solid rotation member but was on the high side for the specialized role the Astros envisioned. The Jays offset some of that by taking on outfielder Nori Aoki, who was making $5.5MM that year. But the real get for the Jays was young outfielder Teoscar Hernández.
For the Astros, Liriano made 20 relief appearances down the stretch with a 4.40 ERA despite a 15.2% walk rate. He then made another five appearances in the postseason with a 3.86 ERA. The club emerged victorious and won their first ever World Series title, though that achievement is now marred by the revelations of their elaborate sign-stealing scheme.
For the Jays, they released Aoki less than a month after the deal, emphasizing that their real focus was Hernández. Just 24 years old at that time, he was considered one of Houston’s top 10 prospects and had already made his major league debut. He hadn’t yet established himself in the bigs, hitting just .230/.304/.420 in his first 113 plate appearances. However, he had always hit the minors and was slashing .279/.369/.485 in Triple-A at the time of the deal. The Astros had an outfield mix that consisted of George Springer, Josh Reddick and Derek Fisher, with prospect Kyle Tucker on the cusp of his debut, leaving Hernández somewhat blocked from regular playing time.
The Jays put Hernández into 26 games down the stretch that year, and he quickly showed his tremendous power potential, hitting eight home runs in that brief time. There were also some concerning elements, as he walked in only 6.3% of his plate appearances while striking out at a glaring 37.9% clip. Nonetheless, it was an encouraging showing for a young outfielder who had yet to show he could handle himself in the majors.
Hernandez took on a regular role in the Toronto outfield from there, and the first couple of seasons had mixed results, generally mirroring that late-2017 debut in Toronto. He hit 22 home runs in 2018 and 26 more the year after, but he also struck out in 32% of his plate appearances. His 8.7% walk rate was close to league average, but his overall batting line was .235/.304/.470. Despite the obvious power, the punchouts dragged his wRC+ down to 104 over that two-year span, indicating he was just a bit above average overall. He stole 11 bases in that time but his defensive metrics were poor.
The next three seasons would prove to be much better, however. From 2020 to 2022, he struck out in 27.2% of his trips to the plate, still above league average but a significant improvement on his previous work. He did that without sacrificing any power, launching 73 home runs in those two-plus seasons. His .283/.333/.519 line in that time translated to a 132 wRC+, putting him in the top 25 among all hitters in the league in that category. He earned Silver Slugger awards in both 2020 and 2021 and was an All-Star in the latter season. That coincided with the club’s return to contention, as Hernández slotted into the middle of the lineup alongside up-and-coming star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, helping the club reach the postseason in both 2020 and 2022.
Despite the great work at the plate, the defense continued to be subpar. Hernandez has career tallies of -23 Defensive Runs Saved, -23 Outs Above Average and a grade of -21 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Going into 2023, the Jays set out to be a better defensive club, trading away bat-first players like Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. while bringing in Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho. Hernández was flipped to the Mariners for pitchers Erik Swanson and Adam Macko.
Looked at on its own, the Liriano swap looks great for the Blue Jays. They traded an impending free agent pitcher who was struggling to a 5.88 ERA on the year, netting themselves a lineup regular who essentially played at a 30-homer-per-year pace for five seasons. When he had one year of club control remaining, they flipped him for a couple of pitchers that extended the benefits into the future. Swanson has become the setup man to closer Jordan Romano, posting a 2.56 ERA this year while earning 16 holds. He can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration. Macko is struggling in High-A at the moment but is still just 22 years old. Looking back to the initial deal with the Pirates, the whole transaction tree looks even better as the club turned Hutchison into Liriano, then Hernandez and now Swanson/Macko.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Blue Jays Place Brandon Belt On Injured List
The Blue Jays announced a series of moves today, reinstating catcher Danny Jansen from the injured list while recalling infielder Ernie Clement and right-hander Bowden Francis. To open spots for those three, catcher Tyler Heineman was optioned, righty Adam Cimber went on the paternity list and first baseman Brandon Belt was placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to June 11, with left hamstring inflammation.
Belt, 35, had spent his entire career with the Giants until recently, signing with the Jays this winter on a one-year, $9.3MM deal. It was a risky play for the club since Belt slashed a subpar .213/.326/.350 last year for a 96 wRC+ as he battled various ailments and eventually underwent season-ending knee surgery. But the Jays were surely hoping that the procedure could help him bounce back to the form he showed in 2020 and 2021. Over those two campaigns, he hit a combined .285/.393/.595. That amounted to a 162 wRC+, which trailed only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper among all hitters in the league with at least 550 plate appearances.
He got out to a slow start with his new club, as he was hitting just .169/.246/.288 through the end of April. But he’s slashed an excellent .323/.452/.527 since the calendar flipped to May to bring his overall batting line to .263/.378/.434 and a wRC+ of 130. He’s struck out in 37.2% of his trips to the plate but also walked in 15% of them.
Subtracting a bat of that caliber is an unwelcome development for the Jays, though Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet relays that the club is hoping for a minimum stint. Belt departed Saturday’s game with left hamstring tightness and the Jays took a couple of days to decide whether the issue was serious enough to warrant an IL stint. Since the move is backdated, he could be back in just over a week if it indeed proves to be a minor issue.
With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first base most days, Belt had seen more time as the designated hitter than in the field. The one silver lining of Belt’s absence is that there should be more opportunities to rotate other players through there in the meantime for some partial rest.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Mondesi, Mills, Weber, Belt
The Red Sox are an even 33-33 after tonight’s win over the Yankees, and they remain 3.5 games behind the Blue Jays just to reach fourth place in the hyper-competitive AL East. Barring a big surge over the next month, the Sox might decide to look ahead to 2024, and the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham notes that the club has a number of interesting trade chips if it did opt to sell. Beyond the multiple players (i.e. Justin Turner, James Paxton, Adam Duvall, Enrique Hernandez) who could be free agents this winter, Abraham writes that the Sox could offer up more controllable options like Kenley Jansen or Chris Martin, who are both under contract for the 2024 season.
Such a decision, of course, would hinge on how the Red Sox are preparing to approach 2024, since naturally a quality closer like Jansen would be expected to play a big role on a would-be contender. In Abraham’s view, Jansen could be “the big prize” of Boston’s likeliest trade chips, given his postseason track record and how many teams are in need of bullpen help. The Red Sox could also see value in selling relatively high on Jansen considering that he turns 36 in September, and that his solid 3.48 ERA is undermined by a 12.8% walk rate that is among the highest of his career. Salary could also be a factor, as Jansen is owed $16MM in 2024.
More from around the AL East…
- Red Sox manager Alex Cora gave Abraham and other reporters some updates on injured players, but the news isn’t good for either Adalberto Mondesi or Wyatt Mills. Mondesi is still recovering from a torn ACL suffered in April 2022, and while he had been taking part in extended Spring Training, he doesn’t appear to be making any further progress or getting any closer to minor league games. As for Mills, the right-hander had a setback in his recovery from elbow inflammation that sidelined him during Spring Training. Both Mondesi and Mills (acquired from the Royals in separate transactions during the offseason) are on the 60-day injured list and have yet to play in 2023.
- Ryan Weber is leaning towards a PRP shot and a non-surgical rehab plan to help fix his UCL strain, the Yankees reliever told Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News. Tommy John surgery might yet be a possibility, but Weber wants to investigate his options in order to try and avoid such a long-term rehab. Weber was placed on the 15-day injured list last week and was immediately shifted to the 60-day IL, so he won’t be back until early August at the absolute earliest.
- Brandon Belt left Saturday’s game due to tightness in his left hamstring, and wasn’t part of the Blue Jays‘ 7-6 win over the Twins today. Following Sunday’s game, Jays manager John Schneider told MLB.com and other media that Belt’s MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, so Belt will remain day-to-day. Since Toronto doesn’t play on Monday, the hope is that another day off will allow Belt to return to the lineup for the start of a big series with the Orioles on Tuesday. Belt is hitting .263/.378/.434 with four home runs over 180 plate appearances in his first season with the Jays, as after a very slow start, Belt has quietly been one of baseball’s hotter hitters over the past month.
AL East Notes: Crawford, Bleis, Blue Jays, Irvin
The Red Sox have given right-hander Kutter Crawford a vote of confidence as a starting pitcher, as The Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham relays that the Sox are planning on keeping Crawford in the rotation going forward after a pair of short starts since joining the rotation at the beginning of June. While the starts lasted just 40 and 58 pitches, respectively, the overall numbers have been solid, as Crawford allowed three earned runs on seven hits and zero walks while striking out six.
It’s been a strong season for Crawford, who has posted a 2.20 ERA, 3.00 FIP, and 24% strikeout rate in 32 2/3 innings of work after a four inning, seven run outing to open the season against the Pirates. The success is particularly welcome after the 27-year-old struggled in a swing role for 77 1/3 innings last season, posting a 5.47 ERA and 4.34 FIP. With Crawford now in the rotation, the Red Sox still have Corey Kluber, Nick Pivetta, and Josh Winckowski in the bullpen as potential multi-inning relief options.
More from around the AL East:
- Sticking with the Red Sox, top outfield prospect Miguel Bleis is expected to miss the rest of the 2023 season after undergoing shoulder surgery, according to Chris Henrique of Beyond The Monster. A consensus top 100 prospect who ranks as high as 39th over at Fangraphs, Bleis struggled in his first taste of full-season ball in 2023, slashing just .230/.282/.325 in 142 plate appearances at Single-A this season. Now sidelined until 2024, the 19-year-old Bleis was already expected to be several years away from the majors, though it’s possible the coming surgery slows his timeline further.
- After 2022 AL Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah was sent to the minors earlier this week, the Blue Jays are expected to ramp up their search for external pitching options, even as the 2023 trade deadline is still several weeks away. GM Ross Atkins told reporters, including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, that the club has “intensified those discussions over the last several weeks”, referring to the front office’s exploration of external options for the pitching staff. Reinforcements could provide a huge boost to Toronto as they’re stuck at fourth place in the AL East race despite a strong 36-29 record, thanks in part to the struggles of key contributors like Manoah, Yimi Garcia, and Yusei Kikuchi.
- The Orioles recalled left-hander Cole Irvin to start today’s game against the Royals, per a team announcement. Acquired this past offseason in a trade with the A’s, Ivin has not built on a strong 2022 campaign (3.98 ERA in 181 innings) during his first season as an Oriole, posting a 10.38 ERA in 13 innings of work in the majors. That being said, his work at Triple-A has been much better, with a 3.21 ERA in seven starts (42 innings). With youngster Grayson Rodriguez relegated to Triple-A for the foreseeable future, it’s possible Irvin could earn himself a more permanent spot in the rotation with a quality performance this afternoon.
Blue Jays Designate Anthony Bass For Assignment
The Blue Jays announced that right-hander Mitch White has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list and will be active for tonight’s game. Fellow righty Anthony Bass was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Bass, 35, was acquired from the Marlins at last year’s trade deadline. Between the two clubs, he posted a 1.54 ERA on the season. The Blue Jays exercised a $3MM club option to keep him around for 2023 but his results have taken a step back this season, as he has a 4.95 ERA thus far. His 26.5% strikeout rate from last year is down to 21.6% here in 2023, his walk rate has gone from 7.3% to 10.2% and his ground ball rate from 41.2% to 38.3%.
Beyond the poor on-field results, Bass has made plenty of headlines in recent days for other reasons. For those unfamiliar, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com yesterday provided a rundown of the storyline that has surrounded Bass in recent weeks. It started on May 29 when the pitcher shared a video on Instagram wherein companies supporting the LGBTQ2S+ community were described as “evil” and “demonic.”
Bass read a written apology last week but did not take questions afterward. “We’re not going to pretend like this never happened,” manager John Schneider said at that time. “We’re not going to pretend like it’s the end and move on. There are definitely more steps that are going to follow.”
The issue came up again yesterday when Bass met with the media and did take questions this time. Though he maintained he was committed to self-reflection and working with Pride Toronto executive director Sherwin Modeste, he also seemed more upset by the negative attention than the actual content of what he shared. “I just felt like it was too much of a distraction. But I stand by my personal beliefs,” Bass said in relation to eventually deleting the video, “and everyone is entitled to their personal beliefs, right?”
It isn’t fully known what motivated the Jays to make today’s move, as it could theoretically be claimed that it was merely the result of Bass’s on-field performance and the return of White. But it was reported just yesterday that Bass was going to catch the ceremonial first pitch at tonight’s game, the start of Pride Weekend. It seems fair to expect that those plans have now changed, though general manager Ross Atkins will speak to the media at 3pm Eastern/2pm Central, per Matheson.
The Jays will now have one week to trade Bass or pass him through waivers. In the event he clears waivers, he would have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while retaining all of his salary, as a player with more than five years of service time. If that comes to pass, the Jays would remain on the hook for that money and any other club could sign him for the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the active roster.
As for White, he was acquired from the Dodgers last year. He had a 3.70 ERA at the time of the deal but struggled with a 7.74 mark after. He came into Spring Training set to compete with Yusei Kikuchi for the fifth starter job but suffered a shoulder impingement in February and elbow inflammation in March. He’s been on the injured list all season and began a rehab assignment in late April. He was throwing multi-inning outings, seemingly planning for a return to work as a starter, but was shut down for a few days in late May due to shoulder fatigue. He resumed his rehab in recent weeks but has been pitching shorter outings and now seems tickets for relief work, at least for the time being.
The Blue Jays have a hole in their rotation since optioning Alek Manoah recently, leaving them with Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Kikuchi, with tomorrow’s starter still listed as TBD. They selected Bowden Francis recently and he could perhaps take the bulk of the innings, though White could factor in as well.
Blue Jays Outright Zach Thompson
The Blue Jays have sent right-hander Zach Thompson outright to Triple-A Buffalo after he went unclaimed on waivers, tweets Mitch Bannon of Sports Illustrated. He’d been designated for assignment on Tuesday when the Jays brought up Bowden Francis.
Thompson hasn’t made an MLB appearance with Toronto. The Jays acquired him from the Pirates over the offseason for minor league outfielder Chavez Young. He’s spent the year on optional assignment, serving as rotation depth for a club that hadn’t gone beyond its top five starters until optioning Alek Manoah this week. Thompson has had a tough go with the Bisons, serving up nearly seven earned runs per nine in 47 innings across 11 starts.
It’s a tough follow-up to a disappointing lone season in Pittsburgh. Thompson had emerged as an interesting late-blooming starter with the Marlins in 2021, when he worked to a 3.24 ERA over 75 innings. Pittsburgh brought him in as part of the deal that sent catcher Jacob Stallings to South Florida. The Pirates gave Thompson 121 2/3 frames last season, but he stumbled to a 5.18 ERA while striking out a below-average 16.6% of opponents.
The swing-and-miss has dipped further this year. Thompson has a 14.4% strikeout rate in Triple-A, where he’s allowed over two homers per nine. The struggles were significant enough he’d been leapfrogged on the depth chart by Francis, who seems likely to get the first crack at replacing Manoah in the rotation.
Thompson has less than three years of major league service and has never previously cleared waivers. He therefore doesn’t have the ability to decline an outright assignment. Thompson will stick in Buffalo and try to pitch his way back into the MLB mix. If the Jays don’t add him back to the 40-man roster by season’s end, he’d reach minor league free agency to start the winter.
MLBTR Trade Rumors Podcast: Elly De La Cruz, Manoah’s Demotion and Surgery for DeGrom
Episode 10 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:
- The promotion of Elly De La Cruz (2:05)
- The demotion of Alek Manoah (9:15)
- Tommy John surgery for Jacob deGrom (14:40)
- Our new series highlighting the best recent trade returns on rental players (19:10)
Plus, we answer your questions, including:
- If Kevin Kiermaier can stay healthy and remain productive, what kind of contract is he looking at in free agency? (22:20)
- Could Corbin Burnes realistically be traded by the deadline? If so, what teams would likely make a push for him? (26:50)
- What could the Cubs do with Marcus Stroman? (30:45)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Wide-Open NL Wild Card Race, Returning Pitchers and Cast-Off Veterans – listen here
- The Mets are turning things around, and how serious are the Mariners, Marlins and Diamondbacks? – listen here
- The Cardinals’ U-Turn on Willson Contreras, Mitch Keller’s breakout, and the state of the Padres – listen here
Blue Jays Option Alek Manoah
The Blue Jays announced a series of roster moves today, the most notable of which is that right-hander Alek Manoah has been optioned to the Florida Complex League. The club also optioned right-hander Jay Jackson and infielder Ernie Clement. To fill those three roster spots, righty Chris Bassitt has been reinstated from the paternity list, infielder Santiago Espinal has been reinstated from the injured list and right-hander Bowden Francis has had his contract selected. To open a spot on the 40-man for Francis, righty Zach Thompson was designated for assignment.
The 2023 season has been a stunning fall from grace for Manoah, 25, who had previously been on a meteoric rise. The Jays selected him 11th overall in the 2019 draft and it didn’t take him long to make it up to the major leagues. He made six Low-A starts in his draft year, then the minor leagues were wiped out by the pandemic in 2020. In 2021, he was sent to Triple-A and allowed just a single earned run through three starts before getting the call to the majors.
It was an aggressive move given his lack of minor league innings but Manoah quickly justified it. He eventually posted a 3.22 ERA over 111 2/3 innings in that season, finishing eighth in American League Rookie of the Year voting. He took things to another level last year with a 2.24 ERA over 196 2/3 frames, striking out 22.9% of opponents against a 6.5% walk rate. He finished third in the AL Cy Young vote, trailing only Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease.
He seemed to be an ace in the making and was given the Opening Day nod for the Jays here in 2023. Unfortunately, just about everything has soured for him this year. His strikeout rate is down to 17% and his walk rate has more than doubled to 14.9%. His ERA on the year is 6.36, almost triple his earned run rate from last year. It’s been speculated for weeks as to whether some kind of action was necessary but he seemed to finally put the writing on the wall last night when he allowed six earned runs against the Astros while only recording a single out, forcing the bullpen to absorb 8 2/3 innings.
After that trouncing, manager John Schneider said that “everything is on the table” in how to move forward. It seems that wasn’t just bluster as the club will now send Manoah to their Florida Complex facilities to see if he can figure out what went wrong and how to fix it. The length of that process could potentially have implications for Manoah’s future earning power. He came into this season with one year and 30 days of MLB service time. A new “year” flips over at 172 days, so he’s already gone over the two-year mark, but this move makes it less likely he’ll qualify for Super Two status at season’s end.
Of course, that’s likely just a minor detail right now. In the grand scheme of things, the long-term trajectory that once seemed so straightforward suddenly seems incredibly murky. Both Manoah and the Blue Jays will undoubtedly be keenly focused on figuring out how to get him back to being a viable major leaguer, for this season and for the rest of his career.
In the meantime, the Jays will now have to patch over a hole in their rotation. Kevin Gausman, Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi should have the next four days spoken for but the Jays figure to require another starter by Saturday. It’s possible that Francis, 27, could be a factor there, either as a traditional starter or part of a bullpen game of some kind. Drafted by the Brewers in 2017, he came over to the Blue Jays alongside Trevor Richards in the 2021 deal that sent Rowdy Tellez to Milwaukee.
Between those two organizations, Francis posted a 3.93 ERA in the minors in 2021, split between Double-A and Triple-A. That got him a spot on Toronto’s 40-man roster in the winter to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He struggled in 2022 and lost his roster spot, posting a 6.59 ERA in Triple-A, though he did make his major league debut with a scoreless outing that lasted two thirds of an inning.
Despite that rough year, he’s had some decent momentum since. He joined Criollos de Caguas in Puerto Rico for some time in winter ball, posting a 1.51 ERA in 35 2/3 innings there. He then had a 1.08 ERA in 13 Spring Training innings before heading to Triple-A Buffalo. He made a couple of starts before going on the minor league injured list but has been back in action for a couple of weeks now and has a 2.89 ERA in the minors so far this year. The Jays haven’t made any announcements about their future rotation plans, but it’s possible that it could be contingent on whether or not Francis is needed before Saturday. With the bullpen fairly taxed after Manoah’s start last night, he could be pushed into action sooner if another starter struggles this week.
One player who apparently won’t be an option to join the rotation is Thompson. He came over to the Blue Jays from the Pirates in an offseason trade but has a 6.89 ERA through 11 Triple-A starts on the year so far. His 8.8% walk rate is fairly average but his 14.4% strikeout rate is well below. He seemed to break out as a viable big league pitcher with the Marlins in 2021, posting a 3.24 ERA in 75 innings that year. But he struggled in 2022 after getting traded to the Pirates, registering a 5.18 ERA last year.
The Jays will now have one week to trade Thompson or pass him through waivers. His poor results both last year and this year will obviously temper interest, but he has past major league success and a full slate of options. With many teams around the league dealing with injuries and in need of pitching depth, he could still find some interest. If he were to clear waivers, he would not have the right to elect free agency since he doesn’t have three years of service time or a previous career outright.
Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #9: Blue Jays Get Santiago Espinal For Steve Pearce
With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player in recent years. We’ve already rounded up a few honorable mentions and highlighted the #10 entry. Now let’s move on to #9, with eight more still to come. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun!
In 2018, the Blue Jays were in between eras. The previous core that took them to the ALCS in 2015 and 2016 was essentially gone. José Bautista bounced from Atlanta to the Mets to the Phillies in what would eventually be his final season. Edwin Encarnación was with Cleveland. Josh Donaldson was still technically on the team but spent most of the year on the injured list and eventually got flipped to Cleveland in a waiver trade as the season was winding down. The Jays leaders in WAR at Baseball Reference and FanGraphs were Justin Smoak and Randal Grichuk, respectively. The club and its fans were looking forward to a new core formed by prospects like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette though they wouldn’t debut until the following season.
As the Jays got to June 29, they were sporting a record of 38-43. Though that was just a few games below .500, they were already well back in the postseason race. The Yankees were at 53-26 while the Red Sox were 55-28, leaving the Jays 16 games back in the AL East. One of those clubs was also a lock for a Wild Card spot, of which there were only two at the time. With the Mariners and Athletics also off to good starts, the Jays were already 13 games back in the Wild Card race.
The trade deadline was still a month away but there was little reason for the Jays not to consider selling. Steve Pearce was an obvious candidate to move, as he was an impending free agent in his age-35 season. The Jays had signed him to a two-year, $12.5MM deal going into 2017. Pearce had long been an effective role player in the majors, carrying himself well at the plate while also having enough defensive versatility to play first base or the outfield corners. He had also had brief spells at second and third base, though 2016 was the last year for him at either of those spots.
Of course, as a role player, there were weak points to his game as well. For one thing, he was best utilized in the weak side of a platoon, as a right-handed hitter who fared much better against lefties. He eventually finished his career with a robust .264/.347/.491 line against southpaws that translated into a 126 wRC+. His output against righties was .247/.324/.410 for a 100 wRC+, or league average.
Another issue with Pearce was health, as he had made frequent trips to the injured list for various ailments in his career. The 102 games he played with the Orioles in 2014 were the most he ever tallied. Those injury concerns continued into his time with the Blue Jays, as he only played 92 games in 2017 thanks in part to a calf injury that cost him over a month. In 2018, he landed on the IL in early May with an oblique strain and didn’t return until June 22.
Nonetheless, the Red Sox were intrigued enough by Pearce to acquire him just a week after he came off the injured list. The Jays included $1.66MM in the deal, a bit more than half of what Pearce was still owed for the remainder of the campaign. That was surely important to the Sox at the time as it kept them from going more than $40MM beyond that year’s luxury tax line, as doing so would have meant their top draft pick in the 2019 draft was pushed back by 10 spots. The club did eventually go over that line by acquiring Nathan Eovaldi and Ian Kinsler at the deadline, but the Jays eating some money in the Pearce deal kept the Sox shy of that line for the time being as they contemplated their options.
In exchange for giving up Pearce and a bit of money, the Jays received infielder Santiago Espinal. A 10th-round draft pick of the Sox in 2016, his prospect stock was on the rise at the time of the deal. In 2017, he had hit just four home runs in 123 Single-A games, slashing .280/.334/.358 for a wRC+ of 102. In the first half of 2018, he already had seven home runs in 65 High-A games, leading to a .313/.363/.477 slash and 136 wRC+.
Espinal then went through Double-A and Triple-A in 2019 before making his major league debut in the shortened 2020 season. His .267/.308/.333 line that year wasn’t especially impressive, but he got strong defensive grades playing mostly shortstop, as Bichette spent close to a month on the injured list with a knee sprain.
At the very least, Espinal seemed like a solid depth piece but he moved a bit beyond that in the next two seasons, earning fairly regular playing time. In 2021, he was frequently optioned to the minors and also spent close to a month on the injured list due to a hip flexor strain but still got into 92 games. The club had signed Marcus Semien to play second base and bumped Cavan Biggio to third, but Biggio made multiple trips to the IL due to back issues. Espinal filled in admirably with a .311/.376/.405 line, stealing six bases and getting good defensive grades at the hot corner. He finished that year with 1.9 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and 2.4 according to Baseball Reference.
Going into 2022, Semien signed with the Rangers and the Jays acquired Matt Chapman to play third, moving the Espinal/Biggio tandem over to second base. Espinal ended up essentially as an everyday player, getting 491 plate appearances in 135 games. His .267/.322/.370 line amounted to a wRC+ of 99 while he also swiped another six bags and continued to be graded very well on defense. He was selected to the All-Star team that summer and eventually tallied 2.3 fWAR and 2.2 bWAR.
Espinal started 2023 slow and just came back from the injured list this evening, but the Jays have to be quite happy with how the trade turned out. They exchanged a 35-year-old role player and impending free agent for a prospect who has become a valuable supporting member of their new competitive window. He has already tallied 4.3 fWAR for his career and 5.0 bWAR and can be retained via arbitration through 2026.
Of course, the Red Sox have no regrets about their end of the deal. Pearce stayed healthy for the remainder of 2018 and went on a tear. He hit seven home runs in 50 games for the Sox down the stretch, slashing .279/.394/.507 for a wRC+ of 143 as Boston went 108-54, their best record in franchise history. They then cruised through the postseason, beating the Yankees 3-1 in the ALDS, the Astros 4-1 in the ALCS and the Dodgers 4-1 in the World Series. Pearce hit four home runs in that postseason run and produced a line of .289/.426/.658. Three of those home runs came in the World Series, including two in the final game, leading to Pearce being named MVP of the series.
The Sox re-signed Pearce for 2019, but he got into just 29 games while dealing with back spasms in what ultimately proved to be his final season. Nonetheless, this looks like a trade that worked out extremely well for both sides. The Sox got a complementary player who caught fire at the right time and helped them win a title. The Jays, meanwhile, weren’t in a position to take advantage of that explosion but turned it into a solid piece of their future.
MLBTR Poll: How Should The Jays Proceed With Alek Manoah?
The Blue Jays dropped an 11-4 contest to the Astros last night, snapping a four-game win streak. The game was never competitive, as Toronto found itself in a six-run hole before coming up to hit. Alek Manoah put the club behind the eight ball, allowing eight of nine opponents to reach base and being charged for six runs.
It was the worst performance in a season that has been a nightmare for the 25-year-old. Manoah comes out of the appearance with a 6.36 ERA over 58 innings. ERA estimators like SIERA (5.91), xERA (6.42) and FIP (6.52) are equally grim. Manoah has earned a quality start in only two of his 13 outings, although both were scoreless seven-inning gems. The start-to-start consistency hasn’t been there; Manoah has allowed more than a run per inning in five of his appearances and gotten past the fifth inning on only three occasions.
Those results are staggering. Manoah looked like a burgeoning ace two months ago. He posted a 3.22 ERA as a rookie in 2021 and took things to a new level last year. The right-hander twirled 196 2/3 frames of 2.24 ERA ball last season, earning his first All-Star nod and a third-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting. This year, he has the ninth-worst ERA and second-highest FIP among the 96 pitchers with 50+ innings.
Manoah and skipper John Schneider didn’t have definitive answers last night. Speaking postgame, Schneider said “everything is on the table” as the club tries to get Manoah back to form (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). As things stand, Manoah would be lined up to take the ball on Saturday against the Twins.
There’s nothing in the former first round pick’s performance this year that’d inspire confidence. Manoah’s 17% strikeout percentage is well below average, as is his 8.5% swinging strike rate. He’s not throwing many pitches in the strike zone and he’s not having success in getting opponents to reach for stuff off the plate. That’s a combination that’ll lead to a lot of free passes. Manoah has issued an MLB-worst 42 walks.
The results haven’t been any better when Manoah has gone after opponents. He’s not missing many bats within the strike zone and is giving up a lot of hard contact. He’s already surrendered 11 home runs after giving up just 16 longballs all of last year. His fastball velocity is down a tick and he’s not getting as much lateral movement on his slider. The breaking ball has been particularly problematic, as opponents are hitting .328 and slugging .603 in 58 at-bats ending in a slider.
Most pitchers would’ve already lost their rotation spot with those kinds of numbers. Manoah, of course, isn’t the average pitcher. The Jays have understandably deferred to his pre-2023 track record in giving him a couple months to sort things out. Without any indication a breakthrough is imminent, though, the pressure is building on the coaching staff and front office. Toronto is a win-now club in the sport’s toughest division. They’re in fourth place despite a 33-28 record. The margin for error is too narrow in the AL East to wait much longer.
Where can the Jays go from here? They don’t have an off day until next Monday, so skipping Manoah’s next start only works if they want to put extra stress on a bullpen that had to cover 8 2/3 innings yesterday. There’s no indication he’s pitching through any discomfort that’d warrant a 15-day injured list stint. Barring injury, the likeliest courses of action are to keep Manoah on turn in the rotation or option him back to Triple-A Buffalo for a reset.
Further complicating matters is the Jays’ lack of rotation depth. Toronto entered the year with a top-heavy starting staff of Manoah, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi. That quintet has taken all 61 of the team’s starts. Gausman has been great and Berríos has gotten on track after a tough 2022 campaign. Bassitt has decent results despite middling strikeout and walk numbers.
Gausman, Bassitt and Berríos are locks for three rotation spots. Kikuchi probably isn’t in immediate danger of losing his job with a 4.40 ERA but he pitched his way out of a starting spot last season and is tied for the MLB lead with 17 homers allowed this year. Kikuchi is already a fringe starter for a hopeful contender. Manoah’s a second question mark and the Jays don’t have many alternatives below them.
Mitch White and Hyun Jin Ryu have been out all season. White’s on a rehab stint in Triple-A, at least, though he’s no sure thing after posting a 5.45 ERA last year. Ryu probably won’t be back until after the All-Star Break as he rehabs from last summer’s Tommy John procedure.
Former Marlin and Pirate Zach Thompson is on the 40-man roster but has an ERA pushing 7.00 in Buffalo. Prospect Yosver Zulueta is working in short stints in Triple-A. 20-year-old Ricky Tiedemann is the organization’s top minor league pitcher but he has just 23 2/3 career frames above A-ball. Non-roster veterans Casey Lawrence and Drew Hutchison have mediocre Triple-A numbers. Bowden Francis has pitched well in four Triple-A starts this year but had a 6.59 ERA in 98 1/3 innings there last season.
Meaningful rotation help is rarely available on waivers. It’ll probably be a deadline priority but it’s uncommon for teams to make notable acquisitions in early June. Unless the Jays surprisingly jump the market, they’re not working with great options. There’s a glaring lack of depth even as Toronto has been fortunate enough to avoid any injuries to their top five starters this year. If one of Gausman, Bassitt or Berríos were to miss time at any point, the rotation could be a disaster.
What should Schneider, GM Ross Atkins and the rest of organizational leadership do? Keep running Manoah out there and hope he figures things out, or turn to a depth option while giving last year’s Cy Young finalist some time out of the spotlight?
(poll link for app users)
What Should The Jays Do With Alek Manoah?
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Option him to the minors. 73% (4,116)
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Move him to the bullpen in the short term. 14% (769)
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Keep him in the rotation. 10% (557)
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Other (specify in comments). 3% (193)
Total votes: 5,635