Upcoming Club Option Decisions: AL East
Last week, MLBTR took an early look at offseason option decisions facing teams in the National League. We’ll continue our division by division series by checking in on players in the AL East whose contracts contain club or mutual options for next season. The Rays are the only AL East team not slated to have any option calls to make.
Previous entries: NL East, NL Central, NL West
Baltimore Orioles
- Mychal Givens: $6MM mutual option ($2MM buyout if team declines, $1MM buyout if player declines)
Givens has bounced around in journeyman fashion over the past few seasons. The middle reliever returned to his original stomping grounds in Baltimore on a $5MM free agent guarantee. He hasn’t had any chance to get into a rhythm yet, however. He opened the season on the injured list with left knee inflammation. He was out until late May and made four appearances, allowing six runs in four innings while working with diminished velocity. The O’s put him back on the IL last week, citing inflammation in his throwing shoulder.
Boston Red Sox
- Corey Kluber: $11MM club option (no buyout)
Kluber signed a $10MM free agent guarantee with Boston over the offseason. He’d been a reliable innings-eating veteran for the Rays last year. Kluber hasn’t been a Cy Young-caliber pitcher for quite some time, but Boston envisioned him as a stabilizing mid-rotation presence in a starting staff full of unproven or injury-riddled options.
It hasn’t worked out that way. Kluber was tagged for a 6.26 ERA through his first nine starts. His strikeout rate dropped to a career-worst 17.7% clip, and he served up home runs at an untenable 2.38 HR/9 pace. The Sox bumped Kluber out of the rotation two weeks ago, pushing him into multi-inning relief. He’s tossed three innings of two-run ball in his first bullpen appearances in a decade.
An injury to Chris Sale could get Kluber another rotation opportunity, but he’ll have to pitch much better than he did in the first two months of the season for the Sox to entertain an $11MM+ option. The option price would escalate by $500K if Kluber makes 20 starts and an additional $750K apiece at 25 and 30 starts (which look unlikely based on the bullpen move).
- Joely Rodríguez: $4.25MM club option ($500K buyout)
The Sox signed Rodríguez to a $2MM free agent deal at the beginning of last offseason. He suffered an oblique strain in Spring Training and was knocked out of commission for six weeks. The 31-year-old has returned to pitch in four games but surrendered nine runs. He went back on the 15-day IL over the weekend with shoulder inflammation. This appears on its way to a buyout.
- Richard Bleier: $3.75MM club option ($250K buyout)
Rodríguez isn’t the only veteran lefty reliever who’s battling injury problems. Bleier landed in Boston via a change-of-scenery bullpen swap that sent Matt Barnes to Miami. While the soft-tossing southpaw is inducing ground balls at a strong 51.5% clip, that’s below the career 61.5% grounder rate he carried into the year. He’s never missed bats. The 36-year-old is a grounder specialist with elite control. He’s been uncharacteristically prone to hard contact in his early stint in Boston, contributing to a 5.85 ERA through 20 innings. The Sox placed Bleier on the 15-day IL due to shoulder inflammation a couple weeks ago. It’s early but trending towards a buyout as well.
New York Yankees
- Josh Donaldson: $16MM mutual option ($6MM buyout if team declines)
Donaldson is playing out the final guaranteed season of the four-year free agent deal he signed with the Twins in 2020. The Yankees took on the contract in the 2022 trade that also brought in Isiah Kiner-Falefa. (That trade converted a ’24 club option into a mutual option.) It’s a move New York would like to have back, with both Kiner-Falefa and Donaldson underwhelming in the Bronx.
Donaldson, the 2015 AL MVP, had his worst offensive showing in a decade last year. He hit .222/.308/.374 over 546 plate appearances while striking out at a career-worst 27.1% rate. Public metrics still loved Donaldson’s defense at the hot corner. Despite some offseason speculation the Yankees could try to offload some of his contract, they didn’t seem to come close to finding a taker and opened this season with Donaldson back at third base. He played only five games before suffering a right hamstring injury that cost him almost two months. The Yankees activated him from the IL over the weekend, and he promptly hit two home runs in his return — followed by an 0-for-4.
With a hefty $6MM buyout, there’s only a $10MM net call on the option. That’s not an outlandish price for a solid everyday player, but Donaldson’s offensive drop-off, age, and recent injury history all raise questions about whether he should be a regular on a team with playoff aspirations. Barring a summer offensive outburst from the three-time All-Star, the team is probably buying this out.
Toronto Blue Jays
- Chad Green: Team has three-year, $27MM option (if declined, Green and team have conditional options)
Green signed a complex free agent deal as he works back from May ’22 Tommy John surgery. He’s making $2.25MM this year. At season’s end, the Jays will have to decide whether to trigger three consecutive $9MM options (essentially a three-year, $27MM contract for 2024-26). If the team declines, the right-hander would get a $6.25MM player option for next year only. If Green passes on that, the Jays would have to make a call on a two-year, $21MM option for 2024-25.
With a year removed from surgery, Green recently progressed to throwing batting practice (via MLB.com injury tracker). A post All-Star Break return to MLB action is on track. While guaranteeing Green $27MM based on a couple good months after Tommy John surgery seems unlikely, the Jays were at least open enough to the possibility to sign him to the contract in the first place. There haven’t been any notable setbacks in the four months since they put pen to paper.
- Whit Merrifield ($18MM mutual option, $500K buyout)
The Jays acquired Merrifield from the Royals last summer. It was a buy-low move while the former American League hits leader was scuffling, and he’s gotten on track north of the border. Merrifield has a .292/.339/.413 batting line as a Blue Jay. That includes a .299/.349/.399 showing in 2023 that has locked him in as Toronto’s starting second baseman.
While Toronto has gotten what they’d wanted from Merrifield, it’s hard to envision them exercising this option. The $17.5MM price point is lofty, particularly when considering the market has tended to devalue contact-oriented second basemen. The Phillies bought out a $17MM option on Jean Segura last winter, for instance; he found a $17MM guarantee spread over two years from the Marlins on the open market. The Brewers did exercise a $10MM option on Kolten Wong but promptly traded him to Seattle in a buy-low flier for Jesse Winker. An $8-12MM per-year salary for Merrifield is more reasonable, particularly when considering that he’ll turn 35 next January.
- Yimi García: $5MM club option ($1MM buyout); option vests at $6MM with 49 appearances or 49 innings pitched in 2023
García signed a two-year guarantee with a club/vesting option over the 2021-22 offseason. The option would vest at $6MM if he combines for 110 innings or 110 outings between 2022-23. García threw 61 innings in as many appearances last season, leaving 49 more to check off.
He’s well on his way to doing so. García has made 26 appearances and tossed 24 2/3 innings entering play Monday. He’s 23 outings or 24 1/3 frames shy of triggering the vesting provision. Unless the veteran righty sustains a notable injury, he should clear that threshold.
Even if García doesn’t vest the option, it’s not out of the question the Jays would bring him back. There’d be a $4MM difference between the club option price and the buyout. García was solid in year one, working to a 3.10 ERA with a 23.5% strikeout rate. A massive .368 average on balls in play has led to a 6.20 ERA thus far in 2023, but García’s peripherals are strong as ever. He’s striking out 26.5% of batters faced while inducing grounders on half the batted balls he allows. He’s averaging 96 mph on his heater. His ball in play results figure to stabilize.
Note: Austin Voth signed an arbitration contract that contained a 2024 club option. He’d remain eligible for arbitration next season even if the option is declined and has accordingly been excluded from this list.
AL East Notes: Fairbanks, Rizzo, Blue Jays
In the words of Rays manager Kevin Cash, Pete Fairbanks‘ “hip locked up” while the reliever was getting ready to enter today’s game with the Dodgers. Instead, Fairbanks halted his warm-up and went to the dugout once the inning was over. Cash told Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times and other reporters that according to the team trainer, Fairbanks’ “muscles look to be okay, but we saw him walk very gingerly from the bullpen and he was in some pain.” More will be known after Fairbanks undergoes further examination.
Fairbanks already spent 15 days on the injured list due to forearm inflammation earlier this season, and missed a couple of other games due to his symptoms of Raynaud’s disease, which manifests in the form of finger numbness. Injuries have been a frequent setback for Fairbanks during his pro career, but he has been a very effective reliever when healthy, as indicated by his 2.84 ERA over 117 1/3 innings since joining the Rays during the 2019 season. Tampa is 13 games into a stretch of 16 games in 16 games, and while Cash is hopeful that his bullpen can hold up until Thursday’s off-day, the club doesn’t have much room to maneuver if Fairbanks has to miss even a couple of days to recover.
More from around the AL East…
- Anthony Rizzo left today’s game for what the Yankees deemed as “precautionary reasons” due to a neck injury. During an unsuccessful attempt by Fernando Tatis Jr. to get back to first base during the sixth inning, Tatis’ hip and upper leg collided with Rizzo’s head, leaving Rizzo shaken up. He left the game and underwent concussion protocol, though manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including MLB.com’s Betelhem Ashame) after the game that Rizzo “was fine” and might even be able to return for Monday’s game.
- While other division rivals have dealt with various injuries, the Blue Jays have been among the healthier teams in baseball, which The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm notes is something of a double-edged sword. While it’s obviously good news that the Jays have avoided any major injury concerns, the club hasn’t really capitalized on its good fortune, as Toronto’s 28-26 record puts them in last place in the competitive AL East. Furthermore, it seems unlikely that the Jays will avoid the injury bug for too long, which will put a further strain on the club’s thin bench. This lack of depth has already been tested over the last few days, with Danny Jansen now on the 10-day IL and Kevin Kiermaier leaving Saturday’s game with back soreness.
Quick Hits: Castro, Kiermaier, Velasquez, Duvall, Chang
The Mets and Red Sox each “pushed hard” to sign Willi Castro this past offseason, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North reports (Twitter link), but the utilityman chose to sign a minor league deal with the Twins. The move has nicely paid off for both the player and the team, as Castro has hit .258/.324/.452 over 103 plate appearances for Minnesota, with two of his four home runs coming in today’s win over the Blue Jays. Castro’s versatility has also been a boost to an injury-riddled Twins club, as he has seen action as a shortstop, second baseman, third baseman, and in all three outfield positions.
More from around the baseball world as we wrap up a busy Saturday…
- Vince Velasquez was activated from the 15-day injured list earlier today, but the Pirates right-hander allowed four runs in two innings before being removed from the game due to discomfort in his right elbow. Velasquez had previously been sidelined by inflammation in that same elbow, and while he is being examined by doctors, it would seem likely that he might be headed back to the IL. If Velasquez is again out of action, it would continue Roansy Contreras‘ time as a starter, since Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported earlier today that Contreras could be headed into a relief role.
- Kevin Kiermaier made an early exit from today’s Twins/Blue Jays game due to some lower back discomfort. Toronto manager John Schneider told Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and other reporters that Kiermaier was feeling sore after a pair of throws, and “with how important he is to us, we wanted to be safe and make sure we didn’t make it worse.” Kiermaier will receive further examination and is day-to-day for now. In his first season with the Jays, Kiermaier has been outstanding, hitting .319/.366/.511 over 154 PA while delivering his usual high-level defense in center field. Given Kiermaier’s long injury history, it makes sense why the Blue Jays would err on the side of caution, and it’s probably safe to assume that Kiermaier won’t play Sunday since Toronto also has a Monday off-day for additional rest.
- The Red Sox told reporters (including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe) that Adam Duvall is set to begin a Triple-A rehab assignment on Tuesday. Duvall was sidelined by a fracture in his left wrist, and a subsequent move to the 60-day IL means that June 9 is the outfielder’s earliest possible return date. Duvall was off to a huge start prior to his injury, posting a 1.544 OPS in his first 37 PA of the season. While Duvall is on the road to recovery, Yu Chang‘s rehab assignment has been paused due to some soreness in his left hand while swinging. Chang has missed just over a month due to hamate bone surgery, and his setback isn’t expected to delay his rehab work by any more than a few days, pending further examination.
Blue Jays Release Julian Fernández
The Blue Jays have released right-hander Julian Fernández, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com.
Fernández, 27, signed a minor league deal with the Jays in the winter. He has been pitching for Triple-A Buffalo so far this year, tossing 9 1/3 innings over seven relief appearances. Unfortunately, he registered a miserable 10.61 ERA in that time. Shockingly, he struck out just 9.8% of batters faced after posting a 24.9% strikeout rate in Triple-A last year.
The right-hander has a small amount of major league experience, throwing 6 2/3 innings for the Rockies in 2021. He didn’t get good results in that brief showing but did have a fastball that averaged 99 mph. He spent 2022 in Triple-A with the Rockies, tossing 57 innings with a 6.63 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
He had lost his 40-man roster spot in the middle of that 2022 campaign and qualified for free agency at season’s end. The Jays took a shot on him, undoubtedly hoping to help him get the most of his powerful arm, though they’ve now seemingly given up.
Fernandez will now be free to pursue opportunities with any club. His results weren’t there this year but he’s garnered plenty of interest in the past, having previously been nabbed by the Giants and Marlins in the Rule 5 draft.
Blue Jays Place Danny Jansen On IL With Groin Strain
The Blue Jays announced that catcher Danny Jansen has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 25, with a left groin strain. Fellow backstop Tyler Heineman has been recalled in a corresponding move.
Jansen, 28, has been splitting the catching duties with Alejandro Kirk fairly evenly so far this season, with Jansen getting 28 starts to Kirk’s 23. Jansen is capable of being a two-way contributor when healthy, as he hit .260/.339/.516 last year for a wRC+ of 140 while also putting up five Defensive Runs Saved. FanGraphs strangely ranked him as a negative pitch framer last season, though he’s been in the positive territory in every other season of his career.
He hasn’t quite matched that level of offense this year, currently hitting .207/.273/.413 for the season. Though that’s being dragged down by an ice-cold start to the year, as he’s hitting .250/.314/.510 from April 15 onwards for a wRC+ of 124. Unfortunately, he’ll now have to hit the shelf for a while, something that has become a common theme for him. With the shortened 2020 schedule and IL stints in each campaign since, he hasn’t topped 72 games played in an individual season since 2019. He departed Wednesday’s game with groin tightness and the club gave him a day to see how it progressed, but it’s evidently serious enough that they’ll give him at least another week to recuperate.
Presumably, that means the lion’s share of playing time will now fall to Kirk, who’s also not hitting up to last year’s standards. He hit .285/.372/.415 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 129 but is slashing just .248/.360/.333 this year for a wRC+ of 101. He and the Jays will hope that some extra reps will allow him to make up some of the difference between those two lines.
Backing him up will be Heineman, whom the Jays acquired from the Pirates at the end of April. He only played three games with the Pirates this year, having spent most of the season with the Triple-A clubs of the two organizations. He’s hit .260/.393/.400 between those two clubs for a wRC+ of 108. He has 246 major league plate appearances in his career, going back to 2019, with a batting line of .210/.276/.269 in those. He also accrued six Defensive Runs Saved and positive marks for his framing work.
Blue Jays Select Ernie Clement
The Blue Jays announced a batch of roster moves today, reinstating right-hander Adam Cimber from the injured list and selecting the contract of infielder Ernie Clement. In corresponding moves, right-hander Thomas Hatch and infielder Otto López were optioned to Triple-A. To open a spot on the 40-man for Clement, right-hander Mitch White was transferred to the 60-day injured list.
Clement, 27, was signed to a minor league deal during Spring Training. He’s been playing for Triple-A Buffalo so far this year, having hit an excellent .328/.408/.512 through 145 plate appearances. He has walked at an 11.7% clip and has a microscopic strikeout rate of 2.8%. He’s also stolen six bases and has bounced around the diamond, playing all four infield positions and some left field.
That strong showing will get him back to the big leagues, where he already has a bit of experience. He first made it to the show with Cleveland in 2021 and then went to the Athletics on a waiver claim last year. He was able to provide plenty of defensive versatility, bouncing to those four infield spots and left field, but didn’t do too much with the bat. In 312 trips to the plate in those two seasons, he hit just .204/.261/.264. The A’s released him in March of this year, allowing the Jays to scoop him up on that minor league deal.
The Jays recently placed utility infielder Santiago Espinal on the injured list and recalled López to take his place but will now give Clement that job instead. If he can bring up even a portion of that Triple-A offense and combine it with his ability to play multiple positions, he could be an attractive bench piece for the club. He still has an option year and between one and two years of service time, meaning he could potentially stay in a depth role for a while, provided he continues to justify his spot on the 40-man roster.
As for White, he began the year on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and has yet to return. He was recently on a rehab assignment but had it shut down due to shoulder soreness, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Since a return wasn’t imminent, it’s not a shock to see him transferred. He’ll now be ineligible to return until 60 days from his initial IL placement, meaning he can technically come back this weekend, though it doesn’t seem he’s healthy enough for that to be a real possibility.
Cavan Biggio Is In A Tough Spot
It wasn’t that long ago that the Blue Jays looked to be building their infield around a trio of second-generation stars whose fathers combined to go to 20 All-Star Games over the course of their respective careers. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio all made their big league debuts in 2019, and all three hit the ground running. Fast forward to 2023, however, and only two of the three have panned out as core pieces. Guerrero and Bichette remain focal points in a talented Blue Jays lineup, but the now-28-year-old Biggio is clinging to a roster spot and could force the Jays to make a decision soon if the can’t turn things around.
While Biggio was never as considered as touted a prospect as either Guerrero or Bichette, he nevertheless looked like a potential key contributor from the moment he debuted. Between his 2019 debut and the shortened 2020 season, Biggio played in 159 games and totaled 695 plate appearances — effectively a full regular season’s worth of playing time — and batted .240/.368/.430 with 24 home runs while going a perfect 20-for-20 in stolen bases. His 26.5% strikeout rate was a bit bloated, and he wasn’t exactly an elite defender at second base, but Biggio walked at a huge 16.1% clip, ran well and showed above-average power.
Since that time, however, Biggio’s output has cratered. In a nearly identical number of plate appearances, he’s batted just .204/.307/.340 with 15 home runs and six stolen bases (eight attempts) — including a disastrous .127/.191/.238 showing in 68 trips to the plate so far in 2023. Biggio has been displaced at second base in recent years — first by Marcus Semien (2021), and then by Santiago Espinal (2022) and Whit Merrifield (2023). The Jays have bounced Biggio around the diamond a bit, giving him more time in the outfield and some time at third base, but the move to a utility role hasn’t been a productive one, clearly.
Biggio remained a disciplined, albeit less impactful hitter in 2021-22 (12.5% walk rate), but this year’s small sample of plate appearances doesn’t line up with even those down seasons. Biggio has walked in just 5.9% of his plate appearances — less than half his 2021-22 levels — and is striking out at a career-worst 38.9% clip. He isn’t suddenly chasing balls out of the strike zone with reckless abandon, as his 21.3% chase rate is right in line with his 2021-22 levels and well shy of the the league-average 31.5%.
However, Biggio’s contact rate when he does chase has plummeted to a career-worst 46.9%. His contact rate on pitches within the zone, meanwhile, has fallen to 80.6% — another career-worst. Heading into the 2023 season, Biggio made contact on 53% of his swings when chasing a ball off the plate and 85.4% on pitches within the zone.
The Blue Jays are a particularly right-handed team, so it’s perhaps understandable if they hope to get Biggio’s left-handed bat going. Brandon Belt, Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier are the only lefty-swinging regulars in the lineup. Biggio and outfielder Nathan Lukes are the two lefties on the bench at the moment. Of those five lefties, however, only Kiermaier and Belt have been productive at the plate. Varsho is hitting .206/.279/.359 in his first year with Toronto, while Lukes has gone 2-for-12 in a tiny sample of 14 plate appearances while making his MLB debut.
A lack of bench production, in general, has been a killer for the Blue Jays thus far, though others around Biggio have begun to pick up the pace. Espinal, for instance, opened the season mired in an awful 2-for-31 skid, though that looked rather fluky in nature, given his tiny 9.1% strikeout rate and .071 average on balls in play. He’s hitting .310/.370/.429 over his past 47 plate appearances, including a 3-for-3 effort on Saturday. Danny Jansen was scarcely better early in the year, beginning his 2023 with a 3-for-32 spell. He’s batted .247/.310/.506 since.
There’s been no such turnaround for Biggio, who has just two multi-hit games on the season and has only received 19 plate appearances in the month of May. The Jays clearly value his ability to play all over and provide some speed, as he’s lined up at second base, first base and in right field this month in addition to a trio of pinch-running appearances. However, Merrifield and Espinal have gotten the majority of playing time at second base, even against right-handed pitching, despite the fact that they’re both righties themselves. Biggio hasn’t played a complete game since May 6 and has only started twice in the past two weeks. He hasn’t been on the injured list; he just seemingly hasn’t been in the team’s plans.
For the time being, an injury to Espinal — which the Jays conveniently announced while I was finishing this piece — could open some additional time for Biggio. Utilityman Otto Lopez is up from Triple-A Buffalo in place of Espinal, and he could also enter the mix for at-bats.
Biggio has multiple minor league options remaining, but the Jays don’t have many infield/outfield options who are having productive years in the minors and are options to fill his spot. Lopez is batting only .213/.273/.260 in 139 Triple-A plate appearances, and top infield prospect Addison Barger hasn’t been much better at .237/.333/.329 in 87 plate appearances. Infielder Leo Jimenez is hitting .292 with a .370 on-base in Double-A but has just a .308 slugging percentage. This year’s 73 plate appearances are also his first experience above A-ball. Former top prospect Orelvis Martinez is batting .151/.226/.479 in Double-A. Each of Lopez, Martinez and Jimenez bats right-handed anyhow, and the Jays may want to keep as many lefty options around as possible.
One such option could be 25-year-old first baseman/left fielder Spencer Horwitz, who’s out to a terrific .326/.450/.437 slash in 169 Triple-A plate appearances. Horwitz isn’t hitting for much power and doesn’t project to, but he’s walked in 17.8% of his plate appearances and has torn up right-handed pitching at a .362/.492/.500 clip (.244/.347/.293 against lefties). The former 24th-round pick doesn’t bring the speed or defensive versatility to the table that Biggio would, but the Jays already have Lopez (and, once healthy, Espinal) on hand as a backup infielders who can play many of the same positions as Biggio. Lukes, meanwhile, can play all three outfield spots. Biggio’s defensive versatility is nice, but the Jays have other options at most of the spots he can cover.
This certainly isn’t a call to designate Biggio for assignment, but the Jays are a win-now team who aren’t getting much out of a valuable 26-man roster spot. It’s also tough to see how Biggio can be expected to get back on track when he’s had 19 plate appearances this month and is starting, at best, about a game per week. Again, perhaps the injury to Espinal can change that, but Merrifield still figures to be in line for a large portion of the work at second base.
The Jays showed last year they were willing to carry Bradley Zimmer for most of the season as practically an exclusive pinch-runner/defensive replacement, but Biggio has had more recent success than Zimmer had and at least ostensibly could have more of a future with the club. They could option him for everyday at-bats and see if that can jumpstart his contact abilities; at the very least, it might bring the Jays a more productive lefty bat off the bench, if Horwitz were indeed to be the chosen replacement.
From a bigger-picture standpoint, it’s increasingly tough to see where Biggio fits in if he can’t improve his production. He and the Jays agreed to a $2.8MM salary for the current season over the winter, avoiding arbitration in the process. He’d be arb-eligible again next winter, and it’s hard to imagine the team keeping him around if he has such a limited role and even more limited productivity. If Biggio can’t get things going, he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following the season. For the time being, a shuffling of the bench mix makes sense both to maximize the utility of the big league roster and to hopefully get him back on track in Buffalo — an opportunity that simply isn’t present in the Majors right now.
AL East Notes: Dalbec, Espinal, Barger, Cowser
Trade rumors swirled around Bobby Dalbec back in December, and Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link) now writes that the Red Sox are still “taking trade calls on” on the former top-100 prospect. Dalbec entered today’s action with a .286/.403/.551 slash line and six home runs over 119 plate appearances for Triple-A Worcester this season, his best performance yet in his third season of Triple-A ball. Of course, there hasn’t been much question about Dalbec’s ability to hit in the minors, but his MLB output has been much more inconsistent. After a .959 OPS over 92 PA as a rookie in 2020, Dalbec has hit a much more modest .228/.292/.436 slash line over 819 PA since the start of the 2021 season.
Since first and third base are Dalbec’s primary positions, he is blocked by both Triston Casas and superstar Rafael Devers, so the Red Sox have tried Dalbec out as a second baseman, shortstop, and right fielder at the MLB and minor league level in an effort to figure out how to fit his bat into the lineup. An argument could be made that Dalbec might benefit from not just a fresh start on a new team, but perhaps also just settling into his natural spot as a corner infielder on a team with more opportunity at those positions. Dalbec isn’t exactly a youngster any more since he turns 28 in June, but as a post-hype prospect, he could be an interesting trade chip for the Sox to offer, as it looks like they’ll be competitive in at least the wild card hunt.
More from around the AL East…
- Santiago Espinal left today’s game with right hamstring discomfort, bringing a sour end to a day that saw the Blue Jays infielder collect three hits. The big performance boosted Espinal’s slash line to only .205/.266/.274 over 80 plate appearances, as his struggles have increasingly cost him playing time as part of Toronto’s second base platoon. If Espinal has to visit the injured list, Otto Lopez or Ernie Clement could be infield depth options for the Jays at Triple-A, though Clement isn’t on the 40-man roster.
- Sticking with the Blue Jays, Addison Barger might’ve been part of the call-up picture if he’d been healthy, but the infield prospect has now missed over three weeks with an elbow injury. According to TSN’s Scott Mitchell (Twitter link), a checkup with Dr. Keith Meister revealed no structural damage, so Barger is back to rehabbing. A sixth-round pick for the Jays in the 2018 draft, Barger came close to winning a job on Toronto’s Opening Day roster this spring.
- Speaking of minor league injuries, the Orioles placed Colton Cowser on the injured list at Triple-A Norfolk today due to a left quad issue. One of many highly-touted prospects in Baltimore’s loaded farm system, Cowser was the fifth overall pick of the 2021 draft, and has mashed Triple-A pitching to the tune of seven home runs and a .331/.469/.554 slash line over 179 PA this season. There has already been speculation about Cowser’s MLB debut coming sooner rather than later, but the consensus top-50 prospect will have to wait a little longer while his quad heals.
Domingo German Suspended Following Foreign Substance Check
May 17: As expected, Germán has been given a 10-game suspension and a fine, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Germán will not be appealing.
May 16, 10:11pm: Hoye met with reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and Keegan Matheson). He called Germán’s hand “the stickiest (he) had ever felt” and opined it “was definitely not rosin.”
7:12pm: Yankees starter Domingo Germán was ejected from this evening’s appearance against the Blue Jays following a foreign substance inspection. Germán had completed three perfect innings before being thrown out by home plate umpire James Hoye to start the fourth. Ian Hamilton was called out of the bullpen to replace him.
Germán becomes the second pitcher of the season ejected for a foreign substance violation. Mets star Max Scherzer had been tossed from a game with the Dodgers a few weeks ago. Those ejections carry a corresponding 10-game suspension, so it’s likely Germán will be formally hit with that ban in the next day or two.
It’s also the second time this season Germán himself has been at the center of a sticky stuff controversy. During an April 15 outing against the Twins, umpires twice warned Germán about applying too much rosin to his hand (link via Dan Hayes of the Athletic). The umpiring crew allowed him to continue pitching after washing his hands. That was to the displeasure of Minnesota skipper Rocco Baldelli, who was himself ejected for arguing against Germán being allowed to continue.
While pitchers are permitted to use rosin, MLB pointed as partial justification for Scherzer’s suspension earlier in the year that “when used excessively or otherwise misapplied (i.e., to gloves or other parts of the uniform), rosin may be determined by the umpires to be a prohibited foreign substance, the use of which may subject a player to ejection and discipline.” It isn’t yet clear whether that was the crew’s justification for Germán’s ejection or whether they determined he was using a banned substance altogether.
The league will surely provide more information in the next day or two. That’s largely immaterial to the Yankees, as Germán faces a suspension regardless of the precise justification. He’d have an appellate right, though Scherzer declined to go through that process after being informed that a league official is responsible for hearing the appeal. In all likelihood, Germán will be out for the next ten days.
If that’s the case, the Yankees would have to play with a 25-man roster. Teams cannot fill the roster spot of a player suspended for an on-field rules violation. New York could recall a spot starter or reinstate Luis Severino from the injured list to step into the rotation but they’d have to play a man short in another area to do so.
Matt Chapman Is Mashing His Way To A Massive Payday
From 2018-19, the short list of baseball’s best all-around players would’ve unequivocally included then-Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman. The 2014 No. 25 overall pick graduated from top prospect status to everyday big league third baseman in the second half of the 2017 season, and by 2018 he’d thrust himself into the fringes of the American League MVP conversation. Chapman finished sixth in AL MVP voting in 2018 and seventh in an All-Star 2019 season. He batted a combined .263/.348/.507 with 60 home runs between those two seasons, winning Gold Gloves at third base each year. Chapman ranked eighth among all position players with 12 Wins Above Replacement from 2018-19, per FanGraphs.
The A’s had a star third baseman on their hands and were seeing a young core that included Chapman, Matt Olson, Marcus Semien, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Ramon Laureano blossom into the foundation of a perennial contender. That group never advanced beyond the ALDS but did respectively win 97, 97, 34 and 86 games in 2018-21 before the front office tore things down in the 2021-22 offseason as Athletics ownership embarked on a Rachel Phelps-esque plan to push the team out of Oakland.
Part of the reason the A’s missed the postseason in that 86-win 2021 campaign was undoubtedly that Chapman had taken a step back in production following 2020 hip surgery. That’s not to pin the team’s playoff miss solely on the star third baseman, of course, but Chapman’s production dipped in 2020 as his strikeout rate soared to 35.5% while he played through tendinitis and a torn labrum in his hip. His 2021 campaign saw Chapman post a career-worst .210/.314/.403 batting line with a 32.5% strikeout rate — a far cry from the MVP-caliber output he flashed in 2018-19.
Though they were selling at a low point, Oakland still traded Chapman to the Blue Jays amid that 2021-22 offseason teardown, receiving top pitching prospect Gunnar Hoglund, infielder Kevin Smith, left-handed starter Zach Logue (whom they lost on waivers the following winter) and left-handed reliever Kirby Snead. Chapman’s first year in Toronto was solid but still nowhere close to his previous heights; he played top-shelf defense, as always, but his .229/.324/.433 batting line (117 wRC+) was good — not great. He swatted 27 home runs and succeeded in lowering his strikeout rate back beneath the 30% level, but it still sat at a well above-average 27.4%.
Chapman was a good player, to be sure, but from 2020-22 he hit .221/.314/.432. His plus power (64 homers, .211 ISO in 1395 plate appearances) and standout defense still made him a valuable, above-average regular at third base, but he no longer looked like the budding superstar he did during that 2018-19 peak — at least… not until 2023.
We’re just six weeks into the season, but Chapman has not only rebounded substantially from that 2020-22 downturn, he’s eclipsed even his peak levels of production thus far. Through his first 153 trips to the plate, Chapman is hitting .338/.425/.579 with five home runs. His 17 doubles are already more than he hit in the entire 2021 season. The strikeout rate that spiked north of 30% and sat at 27.4% a year ago is down to 25.5%, with reason to believe it could improve further.
Chapman’s 9.7% swinging-strike rate and 25.5% chase rate on pitches off the plate are both markedly better than the respective league averages of 10.9% and 31.4%. That doesn’t guarantee his strikeout rate will come down, but chasing bad pitches and whiffing less often than the league-average hitter should, in theory, eventually push his strikeout rate south of the league average.
Beyond the gains in strikeout rate and contact rate, Chapman is simply decimating the ball when he puts it into play. No one in baseball has a higher average exit velocity than Chapman’s 95.3 MPH mark, and his ludicrous 28.7% barrel rate is the best in MLB by an enormous margin of six percentage points. Aaron Judge is second at 22.7%, and there are only six total hitters in MLB at 20% or higher. An astonishing 67% of Chapman’s batted balls have left the bat at 95 mph or more.
Given the authority with which Chapman is hitting the ball, it’s actually a bit surprising he’s only connected on five home runs. His launch angle is right in line with his 2018-19 levels, and he’s hitting the ball in the air more often than he did in his previous peak years. After hitting a fly-ball in 41.3% of his plate appearances in 2018-19, Chapman is at 47.9% in 2023. A smaller percentage of those fly balls are of the infield variety (8.9% versus 15.9%), too. He’s curiously seen just 11.1% of his flies become home runs this year, compared to the 16.6% rate he enjoyed during his career with Oakland. That’s despite hitting the ball harder now and playing in a more homer-friendly venue; it stands to reason that Chapman’s home run output will be on the upswing sooner than later, provided he maintains this quality of contact.
Maintaining this pace, of course, will be difficult to do. Chapman’s clearly enjoying some good fortune right now, evidenced by a massive .449 average on balls in play. He’s already begun to see some regression, hitting .206/.308/.265 in 39 plate appearances since the calendar flipped to May. That dip in production is attributable not only to a drop in his BABIP, but more concerningly a spike in his strikeout rate. We’re looking at a small sample within a small sample, and the endpoints are admittedly arbitrary, but Chapman has fanned in exactly one-third of his plate appearances this month.
It was never reasonable to expect Chapman, a career .240/.329/.469 hitter entering the season, to sustain a batting average in the high-.300s, of course. But he’s regularly shown an ability to make high-quality contact in the past, so the big thing to keep an eye on with him as he approaches his first trip to free agency at season’s end was always going to be his contact rates.
If Chapman can avoid allowing his recent uptick in whiffs to snowball, then a return to peak levels or even the establishment of a new peak output is firmly in play. He’s still walking at an excellent 11.8% clip, after all, and his glovework at third base remains well-regarded. Statcast currently has him at one out below average but also tabs him in the 83rd percentile in terms of arm strength. He’s been credited with five Defensive Runs Saved already, and he’s sporting a 3.1 Ultimate Zone Rating. To date, Chapman has only made two errors this season.
His ability to sustain his elite contact and avoid reverting to his bloated strikeout rates over the next five months will be particularly telling. While Chapman once looked like he’d be the third-best free agent at his own position, the equation has changed substantially. Both Rafael Devers and Manny Machado signed long-term extensions to keep them in Boston and San Diego, respectively, leaving Chapman as the clear No. 1 third baseman on the market.
At this rate, however, Chapman won’t be just the clear top option at third base — he looks like he’ll be far and away the best position player on the market (excluding two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani, who’s in a free-agent tier unto himself). The upcoming free-agent class is utterly devoid of impact bats. Teoscar Hernandez, a resurgent Cody Bellinger, a somewhat resurgent Joey Gallo, and Hunter Renfroe look like the top bats who’ll be available. There’s still some time for that to change — a torrid summer from Javier Baez or Josh Bell could alter the calculus, for instance — but right now the market for position players is decidedly bleak.
When we were first kicking around thoughts and ideas for the initial installment of our 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings, MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes floated the idea of Chapman surpassing a $200MM guarantee. That was on April 4. The number felt jarring and unrealistic, and he received plenty of pushback on the idea due to Chapman’s hip surgery, uptick in strikeouts and general downturn in production since 2020.
Just a few weeks later, that type of contract feels far, far more plausible. Chapman has been the best hitter in baseball for nearly a quarter of the season, and the market surrounding him will be among the thinnest in recent memory. Perhaps that’ll lead to an uptick in trade activity throughout the league, but for teams looking to pad their roster without depleting the farm system (and without spending half a billion dollars on Ohtani), Chapman currently looks like he’ll be the best bet. Add in his defensive prowess and the fact that he won’t turn 31 until late next April — plus last year’s spike in ultra-long, CBT-skirting contracts — and it increasingly looks like Chapman and agent Scott Boras will be in prime position to break the bank.