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Blue Jays Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Gunnar Hoglund

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The Blue Jays have agreed to terms with first-round pick Gunnar Hoglund, reports Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo (via Twitter). The former Ole Miss righty will receive a $3,247,500 bonus that clocks in about $111K south of his slot value at No. 19 overall. Hoglund is represented by Nate Heisler of Rep 1 Baseball.

That slightly under-slot price point is likely due in large part to the fact that Hoglund underwent Tommy John surgery about two months before the draft. Prior to that elbow injury, Hoglund was regarded as one of the top college arms on the board and considered a potential top 10 pick. While he’ll miss the remainder of the 2021 season and won’t be able to begin pitching for a Jays affiliate until sometime next summer, at the earliest, Hoglund nevertheless adds a high-profile arm to an already strong Jays system.

Hoglund, 21, pitched 62 2/3 innings with the Rebels in 2021 before sustaining the elbow injury that necessitated his surgery. In that time, he pitched to a 2.87 ERA while striking out 38.9 percent of his opponents against a 6.8 percent walk rate. Dating back to the shortened 2020 season, in which he tossed 23 1/3 frames, Hoglund carries a 2.41 ERA with a sensational 133-to-21 K/BB ratio in 86 total innings.

Even with that injury, Hoglund landed 14th on FanGraphs’ final draft rankings, 19th at Baseball America, 20th at ESPN, 22nd at MLB.com and 30th at The Athletic. Scouting reports on Hoglund credited him with the best command in the draft and a plus slider. The Athletic’s Keith Law noted that Hoglund’s ceiling might not be as high as that of the draft’s top college arms (Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker), but the consensus was there’s a “high probability that he’d at least develop into a fourth starter.” ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel adds that Hoglund was “locked in” as a top 10 pick prior to his elbow injury.

MLBTR Poll: Most Dangerous Second Half Teams

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With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.

In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.

For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.

American League

Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)

It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.

Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)

The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.

Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)

There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.

Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)

The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.

Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)

Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.

 

(poll link for app users)

National League

Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)

The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.

Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)

The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.

Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)

One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.

Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)

The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.

 

(poll link for app users)

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/8/21

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Today’s minor moves:

  • The Blue Jays announced they’ve acquired outfield prospect Darlin Guzman from the Reds as the player to be named later in the teams’ January deal that sent right-hander Héctor Pérez to Cincinnati. Guzman joined the Reds during the 2017-18 international signing period and spent the next two seasons in the Dominican Summer League. He hit .306/.361/.537 over 391 plate appearances in the DSL and was with the Reds’ Arizona Complex League team in 2021. The 20-year-old has never appeared on a Reds system ranking at Baseball America or FanGraphs. Pérez, meanwhile, was outrighted off the 40-man roster last month after struggling with Triple-A Louisville. He remains in the organization but hasn’t made a big league appearance with Cincinnati.
  • The Cubs announced that catcher Taylor Gushue has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Iowa. The 27-year-old does not have the requisite service time to refuse an outright assignment, so he’ll remain in the organization as high minors depth. A longtime Nationals farmhand, Gushue signed with the Cubs over the winter and has hit .272/.328/.440 over 137 plate appearances with Iowa this season. That earned him his first promotion to the major leagues last week, but he was designated for assignment having appeared in just two games when Chicago signed Robinson Chirinos to a big league deal.

Blue Jays Activate Thomas Hatch From Injured List

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Before this evening’s game against the Orioles, the Blue Jays reinstated right-hander Thomas Hatch from the 60-day injured list. He was promptly optioned to Triple-A Buffalo. To create 40-man roster space, lefty Ryan Borucki was transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day IL.

Hatch hasn’t appeared in the majors this year. A right elbow impingement landed him on the IL to begin the season, and his eventual rehab assignment had to be briefly halted by side tightness. The 26-year-old has made six rehab starts with the Bisons, tossing 19 1/3 frames with a strong 2.79 ERA but less impressive strikeout and walk rates (20.2% and 10.7%, respectively). Hatch worked as a reliever for the big league club last season, pitching 26 1/3 innings with a 2.73 ERA/4.80 SIERA. Nevertheless, the Toronto front office has spoken of keeping him stretched out in Triple-A as potential rotation depth.

Borucki, on the other hand, broke in as a starter but has worked exclusively in relief over the past two years. He tossed 13 1/3 innings of 4.05 ERA/3.23 SIERA ball before landing on the IL on May 11 with a flexor strain in his forearm.

Today’s transfer rules Borucki out for 60 days from that original IL placement. It’s essentially a procedural move, as the left-hander will be eligible to return this weekend. Borucki has progressed to throwing live batting practice and could embark on a rehab assignment of his own this week, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet recently noted.

Brewers Acquire Rowdy Tellez

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The Brewers have been baseball’s most active team on the trade front so far, and they’ve now struck up another deal to bring in some infield depth. Milwaukee is trading reliever Trevor Richards and minor league righty Bowden Francis to the Blue Jays in exchange for first baseman Rowdy Tellez, the two teams announced Tuesday.

Rowdy Tellez | Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Tellez, 26, brings another powerful left-handed bat to a Brewers club that recently lost first baseman Daniel Vogelbach to a hamstring injury. He’s shuffled between Triple-A and the big leagues with the Jays in recent seasons, at times looking like a possible long-term answer at first base/designated hitter for the Jays.

However, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s shift across the diamond from third base to first base cut into Tellez’s opportunities, and the team’s signing of George Springer created a four-man carousel between the outfield and DH when everyone is at full strength; Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk are all in line for regular at-bats when the lineup is healthy. That, coupled with the fact that Tellez hit just .209/.272/.338 in 151 plate appearances earlier in the year when Springer was on the injured list, likely prompted to the Jays’ willingness to move on from Tellez.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Tellez is an intriguing bat on which to buy low for Milwaukee. He mashed at a .283/.346/.540 clip with eight homers and five doubles in 127 plate appearances with the Jays in 2020 and belted 21 home runs for them in 2019. Entering the season, Tellez carried .250/.309/.488 batting line with 33 homers, 33 doubles, a 6.9 percent walk rate and a 25.7 percent strikeout rate in 609 trips to the plate.

Tellez struggled in his first exposure to Triple-A ball as a 22-year-old back in 2017, but his production at that level has steadily increased; he’s hitting .298/.400/.638 in 55 plate appearances there so far in 2021 and batted .366/.450/.688 in 26 games (109 plate appearances) there back in 2019 as well.

The hope for the Brewers is surely that Tellez can provide an immediate boost at a position that has been a point of frustration so far in 2021. Keston Hiura struggled with the move to first base and has twice been optioned to Triple-A Nashville, although to his credit, Hiura has been hitting quite well since his latest recall. Vogelbach was helping to solidify the position with a strong showing for the first few weeks of June, but the aforementioned hamstring injury came with a recovery timetable of at least six weeks.

It’s not clear just how the Brewers will divide the playing time up — particularly once Vogelbach is healthy — but Hiura and Tellez ostensibly form an intriguing platoon. Tellez can also be freely optioned for the remainder of the current season, so he could be an up-and-down piece in Milwaukee for now, just as he was with the Jays. Looking longer term, he’s under club control for three more years beyond the current campaign and will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter.

For the Blue Jays, this marks the second under-the-radar reliever they’ve picked up in the past week or so. They’re not even a week removed from acquiring Adam Cimber and injured outfielder Corey Dickerson (whose left-handed bat could potentially replace Tellez on the depth chart if he makes it back this season) in a trade that sent Joe Panik and minor league righty Andrew McInvale to the Marlins.

Trevor Richards

Richards, like Cimber, wasn’t an obvious trade candidate. He’d only just joined the Brewers in mid-May, coming over from the Rays as part of the Willy Adames trade, and is controllable through the 2024 campaign. So far in 2021, the 28-year-old has tallied 31 2/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball while striking out 31.7 percent of his opponents against a 9.8 percent walk rate. He gives the Jays a pitcher with ample experience as both in the bullpen and in the rotation, having started 48 games between the Marlins and the Rays from 2018-19.

The 2020 season was a miserable one for Richards, who limped to a 5.91 ERA for Tampa Bay while posting career-worst strikeout and home-run rates. That came in a sample of just 32 innings, however, and he’s bounced back nicely through the season’s first three months. Overall, Richards owns a 4.34 ERA, 23.1 percent strikeout rate and 9.5 percent walk rate in 325 1/3 innings at the MLB level.

Francis, 25, was Milwaukee’s seventh-round pick in 2017 and has posted a solid season between Double-A and Triple-A thus far. He’s worked exclusively as a starter, tallying 59 2/3 innings with a 3.62 ERA, a 27.3 percent strikeout rate and a 7.1 percent walk rate. Francis is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who ranked 25th among Milwaukee farmhands on last week’s rankings from Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs. Longenhagen notes that a newly added slider quickly became the best of Francis’ four pitches in 2021 and calls him a potential back-of-the-rotation arm with a excellent feel for pitching but mostly fringe stuff on the mound.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Tellez was headed to the Brewers in exchange for Richards (Twitter link). Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi tweeted that Francis was also going to the Jays in the deal.

Outrighted: Beasley, Bergen, Wade

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A handful of players around the league have cleared waivers:

  • Right-hander Jeremy Beasley and lefty Travis Bergen both went unclaimed on outright waivers, the Blue Jays announced. They’ve been subsequently assigned to Triple-A. Beasley, 25, appeared in eight games with the Jays this season and posted an impressive 27.7 percent strikeout rate in 9 1/3 frames. However, he also surrendered eight earned runs, walked 19.1 percent of his opponents and served up three home runs in that short time. Bergen was designated for assignment last week despite a 1.69 ERA in 10 2/3 innings, although the 27-year-old’s eight walks in that time make that ERA look rather dubious. Bergen has an excellent minor league track record but has been injured frequently throughout his pro career to date. If he can repeat his past minor league success and remain healthy, he could get another look before too long.
  • The Orioles announced that righty Konner Wade cleared waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Norfolk. The 29-year-old made a very brief MLB debut last week but was hit hard, surrendering six runs on seven hits and a walk with one strikeout in 1 2/3 innings. The former Rockies and Red Sox farmhand has been enjoying a solid season in Norfolk to date, having pitched to a 3.24 ERA through 33 1/3 frames. Wade has just a 16 percent strikeout rate there, but he’s also notched a tidy 6.1 percent walk rate and an above-average 48.5 percent ground-ball rate. While it obviously wasn’t the debut Wade had envisioned, there’s been a fairly steady churn on the Orioles’ pitching staff so far in 2021, so continued success in Triple-A could lead to another look in the Majors later this summer.

Blue Jays Submit Proposal To Return To Toronto By July 30

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The Blue Jays are hoping to receive approval from the Canadian government to return to Toronto for a homestand that begins on July 30, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi writes.  The team submitted their proposal “in recent weeks,” and officials from both the city of Toronto and the province of Ontario have okayed the concept.

Canada’s restrictions regarding COVID-19 quarantines will be eased (though not eliminated) on July 5 for Canadian citizens who have been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus and are returning across the border.  As Davidi notes, non-vaccinated players on the Jays and other teams could potentially face some type of modified quarantine situation — likely some type of a bubble environment limiting them to traveling to and from Rogers Centre and the team hotel.

Team president Mark Shapiro has said that the organization would require about three weeks to fully move operations from Buffalo to Toronto, though there is some flexibility within that timeframe.  The Blue Jays are either on the road or off for much of the rest of July, with a six-game homestand in Buffalo from July 16-21 representing their only home dates until the 30th.

Needless to say, the organization and its players would immensely welcome a return to Rogers Centre after over one and a half seasons of nomadic baseball.  The Blue Jays played home games in Buffalo during the abbreviated 2020 season, then used Dunedin as their home base in April and May of this season before returning to Buffalo on June 1.  If approval isn’t granted in time for the July 30-August 8 homestand, the Blue Jays don’t have another home date scheduled until August 20, when a seven-game stint against the Tigers and White Sox will run until August 26.

Should the earlier approval become a reality, however, July 30 will suddenly stand out as one of the more notable days in Jays history.  Not only will they finally be back in their home ballpark, but the trade deadline falls on that same day, and the Jays have all the makings of a team looking to buy.  It’s fair to assume that the Blue Jays will take an aggressive approach to the deadline with or without a Rogers Centre return slated for July 30, though landing a big acquisition would be the icing on the cake for what would be a celebratory day for Toronto fans.

Blue Jays Activate Danny Jansen; Gabriel Moreno Undergoes Hand Surgery

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Before this afternoon’s game against the Rays, the Blue Jays activated catcher Danny Jansen from the injured list and optioned Riley Adams to Triple-A. Jansen will be limited to scripted usage in the near-term, as manager Charlie Montoyo is committed to riding the hot hand of Reese McGuire for now, per Scott Mitchell of TSN Sports (via Twitter). McGuire was designated for assignment at the start of the season, and he’d have to be waived again for Toronto to take him off the active roster. He’s not going anywhere for now, however, not while he continues to hit as he has, with a .302/.350/.406 triple slash line through 104 plate appearances. That means Alejandro Kirk will remain in Triple-A for the time being, where he is currently on a rehab assignment.

  • In other Blue Jays catching news, top prospect Gabriel Moreno underwent surgery on his fractured right thumb, as first reported by Future Blue Jays (and confirmed by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). There’s no specific timetable on his return, but the young backstop will be out for multiple weeks. Moreno entered the season as one of the top catching prospects in the minors, and he’s taken his stock to another level with Double-A New Hampshire. Despite only being 21 years old, Moreno has thrived at the minors’ second-highest level, hitting .373/.441/.651 with eight homers across 145 plate appearances.

Blue Jays Interested In Richard Rodriguez

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The Blue Jays are one of the teams showing trade interest in Pirates right-hander Richard Rodriguez, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Toronto has already made one early move to upgrade its struggling bullpen, as righty Adam Cimber was acquired yesterday part of a four-player deal with the Marlins.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently illustrated, Rodriguez figures to be one of the most sought-after players of this deadline season.  The 31-year-old closer is not only inexpensive ($1.7MM salary for 2021) and controllable (through the 2023 season), but he also posted some of the best numbers of any reliever in baseball.  Rodriguez has a 1.78 ERA/3.55 SIERA through 30 1/3 innings, with that higher SIERA reflective of such factors as a .215 BABIP and a 24.5% strikeout rate that is barely above average.

However, Rodriguez also has some elite control — he has issued only three walks, the fewest of any pitcher in the league with at least 30 innings pitched.  The lack of strikeouts, as Steve notes, is more due to a change in pitch selection rather than any sudden inability to miss bats, as Rodriguez has increased focus on generating weak contact in the form of infield pop-ups.  Rodriguez’s success in 2021 also isn’t coming out of nowhere, as he is now in his fourth season of delivering quality results out of the Pittsburgh bullpen.

The right-hander would solidify any relief corps, but he would be an especially major upgrade to a Toronto bullpen that has struggled badly in recent weeks.  A rather stunning number of reliever injuries has thinned the Jays’ depth, and while a few of those arms will return, there isn’t much time to spare considering how many blown leads have already cost the Blue Jays several crucial victories in a very competitive AL East.

The acquisition of Cimber over a month before the trade deadline indicates that the Toronto front office is already being aggressive in exploring options, even if league-wide trade activity isn’t expected to really kick into gear until after the July 11-13 amateur draft is completed.  The Pirates could be a particular team to monitor in this regard, considering the Bucs face the especially big decision of who to select with the first overall pick.

The Blue Jays have enough minor league depth to get the Pirates’ attention in what should be a very competitive market for Rodriguez, and Pittsburgh is certainly justified in demanding a big return.  Pirates GM Ben Cherington worked in the Jays front office before being hired in his current role in November 2019, though while this connection has often linked the Jays and Pirates together as natural trade partners, the two clubs have yet to actually swing a deal during Cherington’s tenure.

Gabriel Moreno To Miss Time After "Minor Fracture" Of Thumb

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  • The Blue Jays’ injury woes have extended to the minors, as GM Ross Atkins said that star catching prospect Gabriel Moreno suffered a “minor fracture” of his thumb after being hit by a pitch.  Atkins told Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and other reporters that Moreno will “most likely” miss several weeks, and surgery hasn’t been ruled out.  Moreno has a whopping .373/.441/.651 slash line and eight homers in 145 PA at Double-A New Hampshire this season, and Baseball America ranks the catcher 32nd on their top-100 prospect list.  While this injury certainly hampers Moreno’s trade value, his development had seemingly made him more of a cornerstone piece for the Jays than a potential trade chip as Toronto approaches the deadline.  Any of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, Reese McGuire, or Riley Adams could be more likely than Moreno to be dealt as the Jays look for upgrades on the trade market.
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