Braves, Max Fried Avoid Arbitration
The Braves and Max Fried agreed to a $15MM contract to avoid arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). That’ll avoid a hearing in his final year going through the process. Fried is represented by CAA Sports.
Fried, who turns 30 next week, put up a 2.55 ERA in 2023. He made 14 starts spanning 77 2/3 innings, enduring a three-month absence for a forearm strain. The abbreviated season resulted in a $1.5MM raise for the lefty.
This represents Fried’s fourth and final time through arbitration, as he achieved Super Two status after the 2020 season. He reached an agreement with the Braves for ’21, won a hearing against them for ’22, and lost a hearing against the club for ’23. Fried had submitted a $15MM figure at his hearing nearly a year ago, but the arbitration panel instead chose the team’s $13.5MM figure. So now in 2024, he will earn the amount he was hoping to earn in ’23.
Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported in December that the Braves discussed an extension with Fried’s agency prior to the ’23 season. Braves president of baseball operations and general manager Alex Anthopoulos has given out 18 extensions since being hired in November 2017, according to our MLB Contract Tracker. His longest deal for a pitcher was Spencer Strider‘s six-year pact, though Strider had one year of MLB service at the time. Otherwise he hasn’t given a multiyear deal to any starting pitcher, if you don’t count Reynaldo Lopez as one. Though they’ve signed many players to extensions, the Braves did ultimately let Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson leave as free agents, as noted by Toscano.
Fried is a special case, given a run of success for the Braves that has included Cy Young votes in the 2020 and ’22 seasons as well as the clinching win in Game 6 of the 2021 World Series. Starting pitchers who signed deals worth $100MM+ with five years of service in the last decade include Clayton Kershaw, Homer Bailey, Stephen Strasburg, Jose Berrios, Joe Musgrove, and Luis Castillo. After back to back years of arbitration hearings, perhaps Fried reaching an agreement for ’24 can be viewed as a mild positive in his relationship with the team.
If he reaches the open market, Fried would be one of many interesting starting pitchers in the 2024-25 class. You can check that out here.
Guardians, Shane Bieber Avoid Arbitration
The Guardians have avoided arbitration with righty Shane Bieber, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The two sides agreed to a $13.125MM salary for the upcoming season, and his contract includes additional incentives based on Cy Young voting, a potential All-Star appearance and postseason awards voting. Bieber, a client of Rosenhaus Sports Management, is in his final season of club control before reaching free agency and has been a rumored trade candidate throughout the winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for a $12.2MM salary.
Bieber’s 2023 season was slowed by injury and was quite arguably his worst since his rookie effort back in 2018. Of course, that’s only relative to the 2020 Cy Young winner’s lofty standards. Bieber still notched a tidy 3.80 ERA in 128 frames and averaged more than six innings per start. He was undeniably a solid starter — just not the clear-cut ace he once was.
Drilling down a bit deeper, Bieber’s 2023 performance carried plenty of red flags, even beyond the forearm and elbow troubles that limited him to 21 starts. The right-hander’s fastball velocity has been on the decline since his 2020 Cy Young win, but this past season’s 91.6 mph was a career-low mark that checked in nearly three miles per hour shy of his 2020 levels. Bieber whiffed a comical 41.4% of his opponents in 2020 but sat at less than half that mark in 2023, with a 20.1% strikeout rate.
Bieber still sports strong walk and ground-ball rates of 6.4% and 47.2%, respectively, but neither is elite. His swinging-strike rate, meanwhile, has plummeted from 17.1% in 2020 to 10.5% this year — below the league average. Bieber also logged career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.2%), placing him in the second and third percentile of the league.
Concerns about the underlying numbers in his 2023 performance will probably drop Bieber’s trade value more than many onlookers would expect, but the $13.125MM salary is still a plenty affordable rate even if he continues to pitch more like a third or fourth starter than the front-of-the-rotation arm he once was. And, of course, given his impressive track record, there’s reason to believe he could rebound in 2024 — perhaps not all the way back to his peak levels but at least closer to his 2021-22 output. The demand for starting pitching far outpaces the supply of available arms as well, which will keep interest in Bieber robust.
The Guardians aren’t rebuilding, to be clear, but they’ve historically traded away their best players before they reach free agency — assuming an extension can’t be reached. Cleveland has shipped out Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger, among others, as they’ve reached four and five years of service time in recent offseasons. In doing so, they’ve kept their farm stocked and been able to continually churn out quality arms thanks to their nearly unparalleled pitching development prowess. Whether the Guards trade Bieber this winter or hold him into the season, the long-term rotation outlook in Cleveland has turned over. Bieber’s time there is surely drawing to a close, and the future rotation will be anchored by the likes of Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams.
Astros Outright Joel Kuhnel
Right-hander Joel Kuhnel has cleared outright waivers, the Astros informed reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Athletic). He has the right to elect free agency since this is his second career outright assignment; the team didn’t announce whether he’ll do so. Houston had designated him for assignment last week as the corresponding move for their waiver claim of Declan Cronin from the White Sox.
Houston acquired Kuhnel in a cash transaction with the Reds in June. He spent most of his tenure in Triple-A, appearing in 17 games for Triple-A Sugar Land. Over 19 2/3 innings there, he posted a 5.03 ERA. Kuhnel pitched seven times with the Astros, allowing five runs with three strikeouts and walks apiece through 9 2/3 frames.
An 11th-round pick in 2016, Kuhnel has appeared at the MLB level in four of the past five years. His only extended work came in 2022. He soaked up 58 innings for Cincinnati that season, pitching to a 6.36 ERA in mostly low-leverage relief. For his career, he has allowed 6.02 earned runs per nine across 83 2/3 frames. Kuhnel’s 19.3% strikeout rate is below average, but he has kept the ball on the ground on a lofty 52.5% of batted balls.
The grounder rate and a fastball that lands around 95 MPH on average should allow Kuhnel to find a minor league deal elsewhere if he chooses free agency. If he accepts the outright assignment, he’d likely receive an invite to Houston’s Spring Training camp as non-roster relief depth.
Pirates Sign Sergio Alcantara To Minor League Deal
The Pirates announced Thursday that they’ve signed infielder Sergio Alcantara and righty Hunter Stratton to minor league deals and invited them to spring training. They’re two of a slate of eight NRIs announced by Pittsburgh today, although the other six — outfielders Gilberto Celestino and Billy McKinney, righties Ben Heller and Ryder Ryan, infielder Jake Lamb, lefty Michael Plassmeyer — have all been previously reported.
Alcantara, 27, has appeared in three big league seasons, spending time with the Tigers, Cubs, Padres and Diamondbacks. He’s a career .209/.281/.343 hitter in 502 MLB plate appearances and carries a .275/.389/.412 slash in a comparable amount of playing time at the Triple-A level. Alcantara is an above-average runner with a plus glove and arm at shortstop, but his sub-par track record at the plate leaves plenty to be desired. He’s played shortstop, third base and second base in his limited big league career to date and will give the Bucs some depth all around their infield.
Stratton, 27, was the Pirates’ 16th-round pick back in 2017. He made his MLB debut this past season and pitched well in a small sample, holding opponents to three runs on nine hits and three walks with 10 punchouts in a dozen innings of work. Pittsburgh non-tendered him earlier this winter.
Stratton has long demonstrated worrying command issues in the minor leagues, however, and those were on full display again in 2023. Stratton notched a solid 3.99 ERA with a hefty 30.6% strikeout rate in 56 1/3 Triple-A frames, but that was accompanied by a 12.8% walk rate. He’s never posted a single-season walk rate south of 11.8% and has issued a free pass to 13.1% of the opponents he’s faced as a professional. Add in 24 hit batters in his career, and nearly 16% of Stratton’s opponents have reached base without needing to put a ball in play. Stratton throws hard, sitting just shy of 96 mph with his heater, and can clearly miss bats in bunches, but he’ll likely need to improve his command to carve out a longer look at the MLB level.
Cubs Sign Shota Imanaga To Four-Year Deal
The Cubs officially announced the signing of left-hander Shota Imanaga to a four-year contract. It’s reportedly a $53MM guarantee. The deal contains a fifth-year team option and could reach $80MM. The Cubs will need to decide after the 2025 and potentially ’26 seasons whether to exercise the option for 2028. If the club declines the option at either point, Imanaga would have the ability to opt out and become a free agent. He receives limited no-trade rights and would earn a full no-trade clause if the Cubs exercise either of their options.
On top of what they’ll pay Imanaga, the Cubs owe a posting fee to the Yokohama BayStars of Nippon Professional Baseball. That’ll initially be a $9.825MM sum and would increase if the team exercises the option and/or Imanaga unlocks more money via escalators. The Cubs would owe the BayStars an additional 15% of whatever money the southpaw earns beyond the initial guarantee.
It’s the first MLB free agent pickup of the offseason for the Cubs. It’s a big acquisition, as the southpaw is one of the more intriguing pitchers in this year’s class. That makes the financial terms unexpected. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract. Reporting in recent weeks had suggested he could top $100MM. Even with the conditional opt-out possibilities, a $53MM guarantee and an $80MM maximum value comes in below general expectations.
Imanaga has spent the past eight seasons with the BayStars in his home country. He owns a career 3.18 ERA in a league generally regarded as the second-best level in the world. Imanaga has turned in a 3.08 or better in each of the past three seasons, including a sub-3.00 figure for the last two years.
During the 2023 campaign, he allowed 2.80 earned runs per nine through 148 innings. He led all NPB hurlers with 174 strikeouts, narrowly topping Dodgers’ $325MM signee Yoshinobu Yamamoto in that regard. That’s an impressive 29.2% clip that’s well above the 22.1% MLB average. He paired that with a tidy 4% walk rate, ranking him among NPB’s best pitchers at dominating the strike zone.
Despite the strong strikeout and walk profile, Imanaga doesn’t come with the kind of excitement generated by Yamamoto. That’s in part due to age. Having turned 30 last September, Imanaga is a typical age for a first-time free agent starter. More importantly, his repertoire points more toward a projection as a solid mid-rotation arm than a potential ace.
Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke before the offseason suggested Imanaga profiles as a #3/4 pitcher in a big league rotation. Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser pegged him as a #4/5 type in a scouting report from early December. The 5’10” hurler typically sits in the low-90s with his fastball, touching the 94-95 MPH range in shorter stints.
Evaluators have credited him with above-average life on the pitch, allowing it to play for whiffs at the top of the strike zone despite the pedestrian velocity. Glaser writes that Imanaga backs that up with an above-average split but suggests his MLB upside may be capped by middling breaking stuff.
The main concern in Imanaga’s statistical profile has been the longball. He surrendered 17 homers last season, the second-most of any NPB pitcher. While some of that is attributable to workload — he was 15th in innings pitched — it hints at a fly-ball profile that could give some evaluators pause. The Yankees reportedly stayed on the periphery of the bidding in part because of concerns that Imanaga wouldn’t profile well in a very hitter-friendly home park. Statcast’s Park Factors rate Wrigley Field as slightly favorable to home runs, but it’s not among the top handful of hitting venues in MLB.
Imanaga’s stellar strikeout/walk profile and consistently strong results generated a decent amount of reported interest. The Red Sox, Giants and Angels were all reported to be in the bidding of late. He’ll bypass those teams to step into a Chicago rotation that seems likely to lose Marcus Stroman to free agency.
Imanaga joins Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon as locks for the Opening Day rotation. The likes of Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski and prospect Ben Brown could battle for the #5 job. There’s still plenty of time for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office to add another starter if they want to solidify the final spot and push all their younger, unproven arms into depth roles.
The fee to the BayStars is proportional to the contract value: 20% of the deal’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of further spending ($450K). The 15% rate also applies to whatever future earnings Imanaga secures.
A posting fee is on top of the sum to the player but not included in the deal’s competitive balance tax calculation. The average annual value checks in at $13.25MM. According to Roster Resource, that’ll push the team’s CBT number north of $198MM. That’s nowhere near next year’s $237MM tax threshold. Evenly distributing the salaries would move the team’s 2024 payroll commitments to roughly $191MM — slightly beyond last year’s approximate $184MM Opening Day mark.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the Cubs had an agreement with Imanaga. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the presence of various escalators and option provisions and the deal’s $80MM maximum value. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported the four-year, $53MM agreement, as well as the club option/opt-out possibilities after years two and three. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported the no-trade provisions.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
NPB’s Orix Buffaloes Sign Cody Thomas
The Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced the signing of outfielder Cody Thomas this week. The Octagon client became a minor league free agent at the end of the 2023 season.
An Oklahoma product, Thomas joined the professional ranks in 2016 as a Dodger draftee. Los Angeles traded him to the A’s shortly before Spring Training in 2021. Oakland added him to the 40-man roster after that season to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Thomas reached the big leagues the following September.
The A’s gave Thomas brief MLB looks in each of the past two years. He made 10 appearances in 2022. Oakland designated the left-handed hitter for assignment but kept him in the organization after he cleared outright waivers. He made it back to the big leagues in July and got into 19 more games. Between the two seasons, he hit .250/.308/.333 with one homer over 78 plate appearances.
Oakland again waived Thomas in late August, sending him to the open market at year’s end. Rather than take a minor league contract, the 29-year-old heads to Japan. The Buffaloes are surely intrigued by the .292/.356/.585 batting line which Thomas has managed in parts of three Triple-A campaigns. Even in a very favorable Pacific Coast League hitting environment, that’s an impressive showing against minor league arms. He’ll look to carry that over against NPB pitching and could reemerge on the MLB radar a year or two from now.
Mets Sign Yacksel Ríos To Minor League Deal
The Mets have signed right-hander Yacksel Ríos to a minor league deal, reports Will Sammon of The Athletic. The righty also receives an invitation to major league Spring Training.
Ríos, 30, has 98 1/3 innings of major league experience, but scattered over six seasons. He’s pitched for the Phillies, Pirates, Mariners, Red Sox and Athletics, never topping 36 frames in any individual season. He has a combined 6.32 earned run average in his career, having struck out 20.8% of opponents while giving out walks at a 12.5% clip.
He started the year with the Braves on a minor league deal and looked in good form for a while. He tossed 25 1/3 innings for their Triple-A club with a 2.49 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. He was traded to the A’s in June in a cash deal and was quickly added to the major league roster, but he landed on the injured list after just three appearances. In July, he required surgery to repair an axillary branch aneurysm in his right shoulder. He was outrighted off the roster in October and elected free agency.
The major league track record isn’t especially impressive, but he’s been better in the minors. That includes a 4.12 ERA at Triple-A in 168 1/3 innings over six separate seasons. He has struck out a quarter of batters faced at that level, though he’s also given out free passes at a 12% clip. For the Mets, there’s no harm in bringing him aboard via this minor league deal to provide some non-roster depth. If selected to the roster, he is out of options but has just over three years of service time.
Dodgers To Sign Elieser Hernández To Minor League Deal
The Dodgers are signing right-hander Elieser Hernández to a minor league deal, reports Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. The deal for the MVP Sports Group client includes an invite to major league Spring Training.
Hernández, 29 in May, didn’t pitch in the big leagues in 2023. He was acquired by the Mets from the Marlins in a December 2022 trade but began the season on the injured list due to a right shoulder strain. He was activated from the IL in July and optioned to the minors, but was recalled shortly thereafter and placed on the IL with a right pectoral strain. He finished the year having tossed just 9 1/3 innings in the minors, then was outrighted off the roster in November and elected free agency.
He has shown flashes of promise in previous seasons, but often with health getting in the way. He posted a 3.16 ERA in 2020, but in just six starts due to a strained right latissimus dorsi. He then had a 4.18 ERA in 2021, but only made 11 starts, missing time due to right biceps inflammation and a right quad strain. Over those two seasons, he struck out 26.3% of batters and gave out walks at just a 5.7% clip. But his ERA jumped to 6.35 in 2022 before he endured the mostly lost season last year.
The Dodgers have generally been unafraid to sign players with injury concerns, betting on the talent showing up with some luck on the health side. Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson, Jimmy Nelson, J.P. Feyereisen and Alex Reyes are just a few recent examples of players that the club has taken a chance on. In the case of Hernández, there’s no risk in bringing him aboard via this minor league deal and seeing what form he’s in once Spring Training rolls around. If he does make the roster, he can’t be optioned down to the minors since he has over five years of service time. He was worked as both a starter and reliever in his career but the lack of health will perhaps nudge towards spending more time in the bullpen.
White Sox To Sign Jake Woodford To Minor League Deal
Right-hander Jake Woodford is signing a minor league contract with the White Sox, per a report from Robert Murray of FanSided. The Excel Sports Management client will receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.
Woodford, 27, will jump to a new organization for the first time in his career. He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2015 and was a part of that org until he was non-tendered in November of last year. He mostly worked in a swing role in the big leagues and had some decent seasons. Over 2021 and 2022, he tossed 116 innings with a 3.26 earned run average. His 15.4% strikeout rate in that time was well below league average but he kept his walks down to a 7.5% clip and got grounders on 45.8% of balls in play.
Unfortunately, things went off the rails in 2023, as he posted a 6.23 ERA in 47 2/3 innings, as his strikeout rate fell even farther to 13.1% and his walk rate ticked up to 9.9%. Despite his ground ball tendencies, he also allowed 11 home runs in that small sample of work. He was eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting Woodford for a salary of $1.1MM, just a bit north of next year’s $740K minimum. But the Cards instead decided to move on, non-tendering him in November.
For the Sox, they have plenty of questions on their pitching staff. Dylan Cease projects as the ace but many around the industry expect him to be traded. General manager Chris Getz recently said the club plans to stretch out Garrett Crochet, but he’s thrown just 73 major league innings over the past four years. Erick Fedde should have a role after a strong KBO season but his work in the majors was shaky prior to that. Michael Kopech and Touki Toussaint both have significant control issues. Michael Soroka didn’t fully bounceback in 2023 after a lengthy injury absence. Chris Flexen is coming off a really rough campaign.
In the bullpen, Kendall Graveman, Reynaldo López, Aaron Bummer, Keynan Middleton and Joe Kelly have all been traded in the past six months, and Crochet is another subtraction by virtue of moving into a starting role. In short, there should be plenty of innings available for Woodford if he’s able to put his 2023 season behind him and get back into good form. If he’s added onto the roster, he is out of options but could be retained beyond this season via arbitration.
Pirates, JT Brubaker Avoid Arbitration
The Pirates and right-hander JT Brubaker have avoided arbitration, per Connor Williams of the Talk the Plank Podcast. Brubaker will make $2.275MM this year, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Friday is the deadline for clubs and arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures, with hearings set to take place in late January. Many cases will be resolved as that deadline approaches, such as this one.
Brubaker, now 30, pitched 315 2/3 innings for the Pirates from 2020 to 2022. He had a 4.99 earned run average in that time, along with a 23.3% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 44% ground ball rate. He qualified for arbitration for 2023 and made a salary of $2.275MM last year.
Unfortunately, it was a totally lost year for the righty. He had some elbow/forearm discomfort in the spring and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-April, missing the entire season. That has led him to have the same salary in 2024 as he did last year.
He will likely start 2024 on the injured list and could return at some point in the middle of the season. The Pittsburgh rotation currently projects to feature Mitch Keller, Marco Gonzales and Martín Pérez, with guys like Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester, Jackson Wolf and Paul Skenes in competition for spots at the back end. Brubaker will jump into that mix whenever he’s healthy. He can be retained via arbitration for one more season before he’s slated for free agency after 2025.