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Tyler Clippard

A Quietly Built, Quietly Strong Bullpen

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The 2019 Twins captured the baseball world’s attention with their historic home run output, and most of the other talk surrounding the team focused on questions within the rotation. The Twins won the AL Central with ease but were yet again bounced by the Yankees in a familiarly lopsided series. Entering the offseason on a low note and with four starting pitchers reaching free agency, the focus was again on the rotation. Yet somewhere along the way, the Twins quietly put together one of the most formidable collections of relievers in the game.

Following last year’s All-Star break, Twins relievers ranked ninth in the Majors in ERA (4.03) but led MLB in FIP (3.56), xFIP (3.87), SIERA (3.53) K-BB% (20.7%) and walk rate (5.9%). The Twins, long known for their reliance on soft-tossing, “pitch to contact” arms, saw their bullpen post the fifth-best overall strikeout percentage (26.6%). They tied for fourth in swinging-strike percentage (13.1%) and ranked fifth in opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone (33.9%).

A half season’s worth of bullpen data is obviously not a definitive declaration of their status as elite, but the post-All-Star-break qualifier is of some note with regard to the Twins in particular. Minnesota opened the season with a host of reclamation projects and cast-offs in the relief corps. From Opening Day through the Midsummer Classic, the Twins saw Mike Morin, Blake Parker, Matt Magill, Ryne Harper, Adalberto Mejia and Trevor Hildenberger all make at least 13 appearances and total 14 or more innings. Harper, to his credit, was a legitimate contributor — although fielding-independent metrics forecast some regression, and his production faded in the second half.

The rest of that largely nondescript group was more or less out of the picture in the second half. Mejia, Morin, Magill and Parker were designated for assignment in a span of two weeks in mid-July. Mejia was claimed by the Angels, Morin was traded to the Phillies for cash, Parker also signed in Philadelphia after electing free agency, and Magill was traded to Seattle for cash. Harper’s role was reduced as his results regressed, and Hildenberger only tossed 2 1/3 innings as September call-up before being non-tendered in the winter. (Harper was designated for assignment and traded to the Nats in February.)

What was left of the Twins’ bullpen proved to be a remarkably effective unit.

Taylor Rogers, Mitch Garver | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Taylor Rogers cemented himself as the club’s closer after the addition of a new slider spurred a 2018 breakout. He threw his first slider in 2018 on Memorial Day, and dating back to that game, Rogers owns a 2.07 ERA (2.52 FIP, 2.77 xFIP) with 11.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9 and a 48.7 percent ground-ball rate in 117 1/3 innings.

Tyler Duffey showed promise as a starter in his debut season with Minnesota but had bounced between the Majors and minors since. Duffey has acknowledged that at first, he wasn’t fully comfortable or familiar with much of the new data that was presented to him by the Twins’ analytics department, but he fully bought in this year and ditched his two-seamer and changeup to go with a four-seam and curveball-heavy arsenal. The result? A 2.50 ERA (3.06 FIP, 2.94 xFIP) with a career-high 12.8 K/9 and a whopping 15.3 percent swinging strike rate. In the second half of the season, Duffey posted a 1.53 ERA with a 47-to-8 K/BB ratio.

Tyler Duffey | David Berding-USA TODAY Sports

Another former starter, Trevor May, has steadily improved his relief work since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2018. The 30-year-old free-agent-to-be rattled off 64 1/3 innings of 2.94 ERA ball in 2019, including a 2.81 ERA (3.81 FIP, 3.67 xFIP) in 32 second-half innings. May saw his strikeout percentage spike from 25.5% in the first half to a hefty 35% in the second half, and his walk rate made similarly positive gains (11.9% in the first half; 7.3% in the second).

The Twins’ late-July acquisition of veteran Sergio Romo wasn’t the biggest headline grabber of deadline season, but the three-time World Series champ pitched 22 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball (3.35 FIP, 3.91 xFIP) with a pristine 27-to-4 K/BB ratio. The two-plus months Romo spent in the organization clearly made a favorable impression, as he returned on a one-year, $5MM deal with a club option for the 2021 season.

But the most anonymous parts of the bullpen’s success were rookie right-handers Zack Littell and Cody Stashak.

Littell, a 24-year-old rookie, was summoned for depth in mid-May and took a long-relief beating during a blowout in order to save the ’pen (eight runs in four innings). Optioned to Triple-A the next day, Littell returned about a month later and proceeded to reel off 30 2/3 innings of 0.88 ERA ball with a 27-to-8 K/BB ratio. The only runs scored against him came on a trio of solo homers. Obviously, Littell isn’t going to make it through a season with a 100% strand rate, but that dominant finish to the year likely cemented his spot in the ’pen.

As for Stashak, he was never regarded as a prospect of particular note even within the Twins’ system, but he logged a 3.13 ERA with a 23-to-1 K/BB ratio in 23 innings in his MLB debut. Stashak is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who doesn’t throw especially hard or generate great spin on his heater or four-seamer … yet he posted an eye-popping 28.7% swinging-strike rate on his slider last year. There’s likely some regression coming for both Littell and Stashak, but both positioned themselves as near-term pieces even if they do take a step back.

At this point, outside of Rogers, the closer, it’s perhaps become apparent that this is a group of all right-handers. As such, targeting lefty relievers seemed like a logical course of action this winter. And the Twins did indeed go out and get the reliever who was the second-toughest pitcher on lefties in all of baseball last year (min. 30 innings): Tyler Clippard — another righty.

Clippard joined the Twins on a modest $2.75MM guarantee for the 2020 season, and while he doesn’t throw with his left hand (obviously), his dominant changeup makes him an excellent weapon against southpaw swingers all the same. Lefties posted a laughable .123/.210/.255 batting line against Clippard in 2019. That translated to a .207 wOBA, tying Roberto Osuna and trailing only Oliver Drake (another former Twin — oops) for best in the big leagues. That wasn’t necessarily a one-year aberration, either, as Clippard has better career numbers against lefties (.187/.266/.322) than righties (.207/.295/.387).

If the Twins want to add a true lefty to the mix, they can always move Devin Smeltzer and/or hard-throwing Lewis Thorpe into that role, although the plan for them  appeared to be to continue working as starters early this spring. Perhaps expanded rosters will bring that pair and others into play; righties Randy Dobnak, Jorge Alcala and Sean Poppen all made their big league debuts last year, with Dobnak in particular impressing as a starter. Waiver claim Matt Wisler is another depth option with an intriguing Statcast profile. Among non-roster players, southpaw Danny Coulombe punched out 61 hitters in 36 1/3 Triple-A frames last year and had looked impressive with the Twins this spring. Jhoulys Chacin could give some long relief innings and provide rotation depth.

The Twins’ bullpen may be lacking a bit in name value, but among the 366 pitchers who faced at least 200 hitters last year, the Twins placed five in the top 70 in terms of xwOBA: Rogers (20), Duffey (22), Clippard (31), Romo (43) and May (tied for 70th). And none of their second half success was attributable to their biggest deadline pickup — righty Sam Dyson, who now famously kept a shoulder injury to himself prior to being traded and required surgery after just 11 1/3 ugly innings.

When a team jettisons about half its bullpen in a two-week span in July and sees its primary deadline acquisition bust, most would expect rough waters ahead. Instead, the Twins quietly enjoyed some of the best relief work of any club in last year’s second half and look well positioned for the future. Both May and Clippard will be free agents this coming winter, but there’s plenty of room to re-sign either and several depth in-house depth options to step up into those spots should they land elsewhere.

MLBTR Poll: Best Bargain Bullpen Signing Thus Far

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Though the adrenal rush that was this year’s Winter Meetings made for great spectating—and great content for sites like ours—getting spoiled in the offseason’s early months does make for a slower run-up to spring training. Yes, there are still some big fish out there lurking in the waters (here’s looking at you, Josh Donaldson), but, by and large, the next few months should largely be about teams making value-oriented additions at the edges of their 40-man rosters.

When it comes to bullpen arms, especially, this time of year can be like open season for cost-conscious GMs. Sure, there have been a few teams willing to spend at the top end of the market this offseason—with Will Smith, Drew Pomeranz and Will Harris all netting guarantees of at least $24MM in free agency—but many a good bullpen gets solidified this time of year through more low-key signings.

The Nationals, a team hamstrung in recent seasons by poor relief pitching, finally got over the hump in 2019 in part because their bullpen gelled down the stretch. Daniel Hudson, a guy the Angels signed to a minor-league deal in February last year, ultimately ended up on the mound for the Nats when they formed the celebratory dogpile. That trajectory from bargain-bin depth pickup to central cog in a World Series-winning unit is pretty good evidence as to why we should maintain a close eye on transactions in the run-up to camp.

So, which bullpen signing thus far has the best chance of being this coming year’s version of Hudson? An exhaustive list of all relief signings to this point in the offseason sounds, frankly, exhausting—for both author and reader. Perhaps a better format is to consider a few choice arms signed to relatively budget deals, with at least some proven track record of success in the majors.

Alex Wilson, signed only today by the Tigers to a minors deal, stands out as one arm that could deliver a solid return for a tiny investment. Though he’s not a strikeout artist by any means, with a 6.13 career K/9, Wilson still maintains a career 3.44 ERA—even after a dreadful sample of 11.1 innings with the Brewers last year.

San Diego’s minor league signing of Kyle Barraclough also promises to yield dividends—assuming manager Jayce Tingler’s staff can get him back to the form he showed from 2015-17 as a member of the Marlins when he logged a 2.87 ERA with 219 strikeouts in 163 IP. Last year represented a low point so far for Barraclough, as his brief stay in D.C. saw him post a 6.66 ERA across 25.2 innings; that ERA figure is not exactly a good omen, but the righty is still just 29 and has demonstrated an ability to strike out batters with consistency.

Like the Padres, the Reds are looking to wrap their rebuild this coming year and may do so with some cheap innings from Tyler Thornburg. Now 31, Thornburg has had a disastrous past few seasons after logging an impressive 1.9 fWAR as a reliever with the Brewers in 2016. Statcast indicates his raw stuff is still there, however, and part of his struggles can be tied to presumably fixable control issues.

Tyler Clippard is perhaps the most accomplished reliever on this list, having logged over 800 innings with a respectable 3.14 career ERA with nine separate big league teams. The Twins will now become his tenth team after a nearly decade-long courtship, providing him with a one-year, $2.75MM deal last month. Clippard was rather good in 2019, posting a 2.90 ERA in 62 innings with the Tribe, but less so from 2016-18, when he bounced between five teams while posting a 3.98 ERA across 192 innings. The now 34-year-old is probably the most stable option here, but it’s worth noting those quality results last year were undercut by a 4.94 xFIP.

Edinson Volquez was reportedly set on rejoining Texas’ staff after rehabbing himself back from injury with the Rangers last year. He’s never worked exclusively as a reliever, although his repertoire—and periodic inconsistency—has often caused observers to wonder what he would look like as a late-inning pen option. Last year, the Rangers got seven scoreless innings of relief work from the journeyman, so perhaps there’s a second chapter in Volquez’s career yet to be written.

Surely, there are still quite a few arms out there who could find themselves pitching October innings after signing frugal winter deals. Of this admittedly subjective selection of signings, which do you like best? Which other minor league or low-cost pickups do you like heading into 2020? (Poll link for app users)


Central Notes: Reds, Miley, Cubs, Twins, Clippard

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Wade Miley stood helplessly by as his Astros’ tenure crumbled behind a disastrous September. A rocky final month boiled over into his lone ALDS appearance, forcing Miley off the roster for the ALCS and World Series. The team supposed Miley was relying too much on his cutter and steering his changeup to the point of altering the arm action that makes the pitch effective. After the year was out, however, a former teammate reached out to alert Miley that glove position was tipping his pitches, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. That’s cold comfort for Astros’ fans, but those in Cincinnati can officially raise their expectations for the two-year, $15MM free agent signing. If the Miley that shows up to Great American Ballpark more closely resembles the guy who put up a 3.06 ERA through 156 innings prior to September (and if the offense rebounds), the Reds might finally live up to the dependable, high-quality performance the chamber of commerce had in mind when adopting the the nickname of the Blue Chip City.

  • As much credit as Theo Epstein deserves for finally turning the Cubs into a winner, the blame falls at his feet as well for the current state of affairs. Something has clearly gone awry when the Cubs are so short of cash that they can’t even outbid the Brewers for low-cost free agents like lefty Alex Claudio, who signed for $1.75MM. The problem isn’t that the Cubs are cheap (they had the third-highest payroll last season), but Epstein hasn’t made the best use of their funds, per The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. With one of the highest budgets in baseball, Epstein ought to have enough resources to maintain a winner in Chicago – instead he’s bargain hunting for the second consecutive offseason.
  • The Twins finally made good on a decade-long courtship of reliever Tyler Clippard when they signed him to a one-year, $2.75MM deal, per The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman. He’s long been successful in this league, thanks largely to a north-south approach that’s come into fashion in recent seasons: a high-spin rising fastball set up by a splitter and changeup that move the opposite direction. The arsenal induces soft, airborne contact, especially against lefties. Besides being a reverse splits guy, he is also the rare pitcher who can be relied upon to consistently produce below-average batting average on balls in play. His career .239 BABIP is second-lowest all-time, Gleeman notes, and he’s only once let that number rise above .300, the average mark league-wide.

Twins Sign Tyler Clippard

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11:20am: Clippard will be guaranteed $2.75MM, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets.

11:13am: The Twins announced Friday that they’ve signed veteran reliever Tyler Clippard to a one-year contract. Minnesota also made its previously reported one-year deal (plus a club option) with Sergio Romo official. The Twins’ 40-man roster is now up to 38 players.

Tyler Clippard

Clippard, an Excel Sports client, spent the 2019 season with the division-rival Indians. After missing the early portion of the year due to a pectoral strain, he debuted near the end of April and generally enjoyed a solid year with the Cleveland organization. In 62 innings — including 5 1/3 unsuccessful innings as an opener — Clippard pitched to a 2.90 ERA (3.89 FIP) with 9.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.16 HR/9 and a 31.6 percent ground-ball rate.

Beyond those surface-level numbers, Clippard, 35 in February, excelled in a number of areas. He ranked in the game’s 98th percentile in terms of average exit velocity allowed, at a paltry 85 mph, and his opponents’ hard-hit rate (28.8 percent) landed in the 95th percentile among MLB hurlers. The .260 weighted on-base average (wOBA) to which he held opponents was also among the game’s best and was a near match for the .264 expected wOBA projected by Statcast.

Clippard is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which likely appealed to a Twins club that deploys a strong defensive outfield but carries a more questionable collection of infielders. He was also lights out against left-handed hitters in 2019 (.123/.210/.255) and has generally held lefties within check throughout his career thanks to his plus changeup. Given both the dearth of quality lefty relievers in free agency this winter and the upcoming implementation of a rule that forces relievers to face at least three hitters (or finish the inning), adding a seasoned arm who lacks notable platoon splits is plenty sensible.

Clippard and Romo will slot into a setup corps behind 2019 breakout closer Taylor Rogers. They’ll join righties Trevor May, Tyler Duffey and Zack Littell among the favorites to bridge the gap between the rotation and Rogers as the Twins look to defend their first AL Central crown in nearly a decade.

Minnesota, of course, still needs to add at least one more starting pitcher to its rotation and is reportedly one of the most aggressive teams in pursuit of top free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson. But even with Clippard on board, the team’s projected payroll checks in a bit north of $107MM. That’s $23MM shy of their franchise record — a mark that has seemed like it could edge north this winter anyhow. GM Thad Levine said early in the offseason that the team’s 101-win season could serve as a launching point to approach owner Jim Pohlad “about being a little more aggressive” in terms of payroll in 2020.

Indians Select Tyler Clippard

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The Indians announced Thursday that they’ve selected the contract of veteran right-hander Tyler Clippard. He’ll step into the vacant spot on the organization’s 40-man roster. In order to open a space on the active roster, right-hander Jefry Rodriguez was optioned back to Triple-A Columbus.

Clippard, 34, appeared poised to earn a spot with the Indians in Spring Training but sustained a pectoral strain that prevented him from being ready for Opening Day. The two sides agreed to a restructured minor league pact that kept Clippard in the organization, and he’s now worked back to health and shown the organization enough to deem him ready to contribute at the MLB level. In three innings at Columbus, Clippard allowed a run on two hits and no walks with four strikeouts.

The veteran Clippard spent the 2018 season with the Blue Jays, for whom he turned in a 3.67 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. Home runs, however, have become an increasing problem for Clippard in recent seasons. Always an extreme fly-ball pitcher, the right-hander posted a league-low 19.2 percent ground-ball rate last season and allowed a whopping 1.70 home runs per nine innings pitched. Clippard’s penchant for strikeouts and inducing infield pop-ups (16.3 percent; 17 pop flies in total last season) have helped him to strand an above-average number of baserunners, but the heightened threat of a long ball when he’s pitching with men on base leaves him susceptible to big innings.

Clippard will join a Cleveland bullpen that includes closer Brad Hand; lefties Tyler Olson and Oliver Perez; and right-handers Adam Cimber, Nick Wittgren, Dan Otero and Neil Ramirez.

Ryan Flaherty Opts Out Of Indians Deal; Wilson, Grimm Won’t Make Roster

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The Indians announced Wednesday that a pair of veteran non-roster invitees have been informed that they will not make the Opening Day club: right-hander Justin Grimm and infielder Ryan Flaherty. While the club indicated that the pair is weighing opt-out clauses, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Flaherty has already declared his intent to exercise his opt-out provision and will become a free agent.

Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal tweets that Alex Wilson is also not going to make the roster and is currently exploring options with his agent. The Indians made clear to all three veterans that they hoped to retain them in Triple-A, though that won’t happen with Flaherty at the very least. Lastly, Cleveland announced that right-hander Tyler Clippard has been released but re-signed to a new minor league deal.

Flaherty, 32, hit .217/.298/.292 through 182 plate appearances with the Braves last year and was long a versatile but light-hitting utility piece for the Orioles prior to his lone season in Atlanta. The left-handed hitter is a career .216/.286/.347 batter in 1452 plate appearances and has experience playing all over the infield as well as in the outfield corners.

Wilson, also 32, has been a steady member of the Tigers’ bullpen over the past four seasons, working to a combined 3.20 ERA with a below-average 5.8 K/9 mark but a quality average of 2.1 BB/9. He’s averaged 6.3 punchouts per nine innings pitched over the past two seasons and logged the second-best grounder rate of his career in 2018 (49.2 percent), but his general lack of strikeouts has led fielding-independent pitching metrics to view him less favorably than his generally solid earned run average. This spring, he allowed just two runs on five hits and two walks with seven stirkeouts in 8 2/3 innings.

The 30-year-old Grimm, meanwhile, allowed one earned run on eight hits and four walks with nine punchouts in 8 1/3 innings with Cleveland this spring. He was once a high-quality setup option for the Cubs but has stumbled to a 6.69 ERA over his past 72 2/3 big league innings. That said, Grimm has continually showed an ability to miss bats in the Majors and in the upper minors.

As for Clippard, the 34-year-old has been sidelined for the past five days by a pectoral injury that was originally believed to come with a roughly two-week timeline. The exact reason for his newly structured minor league pact could come down to a matter of altered opt-out clauses or even altered base salary/incentives, but the Indians reportedly made clear at the time of his injury that they hoped to work out a deal to retain him. It would appear they’ve reached an agreement to do so, and it seems quite likely that assuming Clippard’s injury heals as expected, he’ll emerge as a big league option for the Indians early in the year. For now, he’ll remain in MLB camp and continue rehabbing, per the team’s announcement.

AL Central Notes: Joyce, Clippard, Zimmer, White Sox

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The Indians have informed veteran outfielder Matt Joyce that he won’t make the roster, manager Terry Francona told reporters Friday (Twitter link via STO’s Andre Knott). The team is giving Joyce a bit of time to ponder his next step — presumably exploring other opportunities out there and weighing a potential assignment to Triple-A Columbus. The 34-year-old Joyce had a rough 2018 season with the A’s (.208/.322/.353 in 246 PAs) and is just 5-for-27 with seven punchouts and three walks thus far in Spring Training. However, he’s only one season removed from batting .243/.335/.473 with Oakland in 2017 and has generally functioned as a quality platoon bat over the past decade in the Majors. Of course, finding another opportunity could be tough, as there are still other veteran left-handed-hitting outfield bats looking for work on the market — including Carlos Gonzalez and Denard Span.

With Joyce out of the mix for the Indians, it seems they’ll lean on some combination of Greg Allen, Jake Bauers, Leonys Martin, Tyler Naquin and Jordan Luplow in the outfield. Once Bradley Zimmer has fully recovered from shoulder surgery, he’ll reemerge as an option as well.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • Another veteran in camp with the Indians on a minor league deal, Tyler Clippard, will be sidelined from baseball activities for three to four weeks due to a mild pectoral strain, the club announced. The Indians, however, would like to keep Clippard, per Francona. That seemingly suggests that the Indians view the right-hander as a legitimate part of their MLB pen this year, though it’s tough to know what the roster landscape will look like when he is ready to resume competitive action. The 34-year-old Clippard has appeared in three spring contests and tallied 2 2/3 scoreless innings with three strikeouts and a walk. Last year, in 68 2/3 frames with the Blue Jays, he logged a 3.67 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 against an alarming 1.70 HR/9 mark.
  • It seems there’s a realistic chance that Royals right-hander Kyle Zimmer will head north on the active roster, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes. He’s throwing in the mid-nineties and showing an impressive curveball, per skipper Ned Yost, who says that the progress throughout camp has been remarkable. The 27-year-old Zimmer, once the fifth overall pick in the draft, has yet to appear in the big leagues. He re-signed with the club on a MLB deal back in November but can still be optioned to Triple-A. Flanagan notes that the Royals are likely to carry an eight-man bullpen, though several spots are already earmarked for Wily Peralta, Brad Boxberger, Jake Diekman, Tim Hill, Kevin McCarthy and perhaps Rule 5 pick Sam McWilliams.
  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn discussed his team’s plans for its top prospects, as Madeline Kenney of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Hahn cited a tepid spring showing at the plate as the basis for the decision to place exciting youngster Eloy Jimenez back at Triple-A. Jimenez slashed .355/.399/.597 in 228 plate appearances there last year. As for top pitching prospect Dylan Cease, Hahn says the righty is ready to succeed in the majors. But he’ll also head back to the upper minors as part of the team’s plan to “get him through an entire season strong.” Cease threw a career-high 124 innings last year and so likely won’t be asked to take 32 starts in the season to come. Hahn says he’ll likely join the MLB roster at some point during the summer.

Indians To Sign Tyler Clippard

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The Indians have a deal in place with righty reliever Tyler Clippard, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). It’s a minor-league pact that would pay him $1.75MM in the majors with up to $1MM in incentives.

Clippard worked plenty of useful frames last year for the Blue Jays, compiling a 3.67 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. That’s well shy of his prime levels, when he was a late-inning stalwart for the Nationals, but still represents a productive campaign.

Interestingly, Clippard has become an even more extreme pitcher than he was in his heyday. The 34-year-old worked at a healthy 14.3% swinging-strike rate and carried 11.1 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9. He also carried a 19.2% groundball rate last year, the lowest rate in all of baseball. Clippard still knows how to get hitters to chase and whiff on his change-up. The question remains what happens with his high heaters.

In each of the past three seasons, more than 12 percent of the balls put in the air against Clippard have ended up leaving the yard, breaking a string of six-straight years with a HR/FB rate of less than ten percent. As a result, Clippard has surrendered 33 dingers over his past 192 innings — a boost in long ball frequency that maps to a reduction in his average four-seam velocity.

On the other hand, Clippard did still bounce back to a well-above-average 16.3% infield fly rate, allowing him to rack up easy outs. When he keeps the ball in the yard, Clippard remains awfully tough to touch. In fact, he allowed earned runs in only five contests last year in which he did not also surrender a home run.

All things considered, it seems like an easy risk for the Indians to take. Clippard wasn’t well-loved by FIP (4.24) and xFIP (4.28) last year, or in the prior few campaigns, but checked in with an appealing 3.42 SIERA number in 2018. He also fared well in the eyes of Statcast, which credited him with a .278 xwOBA (compared with a .309 wOBA). Clippard is also the game’s most durable reliever, easily topping the league in total innings over the past decade.

Blue Jays Shopping Roberto Osuna, Rental Players

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11:20am: Beyond Osuna, it doesn’t seem that the Jays are marketing much in the way of controllable players. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that their deadline talks are centered around Osuna, Tyler Clippard, John Axford, Aaron Loup and Curtis Granderson — each of whom is a free agent after the 2018 season.

8:45am: The Blue Jays are actively trying to trade closer Roberto Osuna, whose suspension under Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy will conclude on Aug. 5, execs with other teams tell Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links).

While there’s been speculation of a potential Osuna trade over the past couple of months, Rosenthal’s report is the first recent indication that the Jays are actually shopping their closer in an effort to find a deal. Previously, GM Ross Atkins had made strong on-record indications that the organization fully anticipates Osuna to step back into the closer’s role upon returning from his league-imposed 75-game ban.

Obviously, any club weighing a trade for the 23-year-old Osuna will have multiple layers to consider. Beyond any moral and public relations considerations, Rosenthal noted last week that Osuna’s next hearing is set for Aug. 1 — the day after the non-waiver trade deadline. A criminal conviction could result in additional time away from the field and/or complications in his ability to travel with a team.

It should be noted that unlike players who are suspended for performance-enhancing drugs, those suspended under the league’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy are eligible for postseason play. Osuna, who was generally regarded as one of the game’s best relievers prior to his suspension, would be able to pitch in the playoffs this season for any club that acquired him.

Another element that teams will surely consider will be that of Osuna’s service time — or, more specifically, the lack thereof. Players do not accrue MLB service time while serving suspensions pertaining to domestic violence, meaning that Osuna won’t accrue enough time in 2018 to reach four full years of Major League service. As such, the suspension has delayed his path to free agency by a full year. He entered the season on pace to reach the open market following the 2020 campaign, but he’ll now be controlled through the 2021 season and will be arbitration-eligible thrice more.

As always, weighing the on-field abilities and the business perspective of someone facing these types of personal allegations is a dicey line for teams to walk, though Chapman’s 2016 suspension, trade and subsequent free-agent contract serve as evidence that clubs will still pay a premium for talent even if it comes with this of baggage. Through 223 innings at the big league level, Osuna owns a career 2.87 ERA with 10.2 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9 and a 38 percent ground-ball rate. Virtually every contending club in MLB is looking to bolster its bullpen in the day and a half leading up to tomorrow’s non-waiver trade deadline, and there are some clubs who are out of contention in 2018 but remain open to adding long-term pieces that could help in 2019 and beyond as well.

Blue Jays Rumors: Happ, Clippard, Axford, Estrada, Solarte, Stroman

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While one AL East seller has begun to unload some of its most marketable inventory, the Blue Jays have yet to come to an agreement on any trades. However, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that the Jays are ramping up their efforts to trade impending free agents J.A. Happ, Tyler Clippard and John Axford, so as not to be left with too many pieces to move at the eleventh hour as the non-waiver deadline approaches.

Similarly, SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that the Jays have dropped their asking price on Happ recently. While the Toronto front office was at one point asking other clubs for players considered to be among those organizations’ top three or so prospects, they’re being a bit more “realistic” with the deadline approaching, Martino hears. Exactly what the lower asking price entails remains unclear, and it certainly doesn’t seem they’re intent on rushing a trade just yet. For instance, Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees still believe the asking price on Happ to be too high.

Beyond the trio of Happ, Clippard and Axford, however, the Jays appear to have other pieces they’d either like to move or, at least, are willing to move. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that Toronto is also shopping both right-hander Marco Estrada and, a bit more surprisingly, infielder Yangervis Solarte. One exec from another club tells Feinsand that the Jays’ prices on their movable assets remains “extremely high,” however.

While much has been made of Happ’s availability, the other players listed in tonight’s reports haven’t been covered at such great length. Both Clippard and Axford are playing on supremely affordable $1.5MM base salaries after earning roster spots as minor league invitees to Spring Training. Both veteran relievers have improved their control (dramatically so, in Axford’s case) while largely maintaining their strikeout rates. Clippard’s bottom-line ERA (3.61) tops that of Axford (4.24), but fielding-independent metrics favor Axford fairly substantially. Either reliever, though, could help to bolster a contending club’s middle-relief contingent.

As for Estrada, he hasn’t pitched since July 3, owing to a left glute strain. He’d been out on a rehab assignment, but Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets that he was forced to exit today’s start due to a blister on his middle finger. That significantly clouds the chances of Estrada returning before the July 31 deadline, but considering the fact that he’ll still be owed $4.26MM of this year’s $13MM salary come Aug. 1, he could certainly clear waivers and be marketed in August. Estrada hasn’t been at his best this season anyhow, though, struggling to a 4.72 ERA with 7.0 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 with 1.51 HR/9 through 89 2/3 innings of work.

The inclusion of Solarte on Feinsand’s list is a bit more surprising, given that the Jays can control him through the 2020 season at affordable rates, should they choose. The 31-year-old Solarte hasn’t performed that well in 2018, hitting just .240/.294/.424 in 418 plate appearances. But, Solarte’s walk and strikeout rates remain solid, and he’s making hard contact at the same clip he did in 2017. Despite maintaining a knack for squaring up the ball, Solarte’s .244 BABIP sits well south of his career mark of .272. Given his ability to handle second base or third base (plus some shortstop in a pinch), plus a pair of club options for the 2019 ($5.5MM) and 2020 ($8MM) seasons, Solarte should draw fairly widespread interest.

One player who the Jays don’t appear keen on dealing, however, is righty Marcus Stroman. Heyman tweets that several teams have checked in on Stroman, but there’s a “strong belief” throughout the industry that Toronto will hang onto him. Stroman has another two seasons of club control remaining beyond the 2018 season, and the Blue Jays would be selling low on him in some regards.

While clubs are increasingly willing to look past ugly ERA marks in favor of other more telling metrics, it still seems likely that Stroman’s 5.42 ERA and certainly his increased walk rate would weigh down his trade value. Stroman, though, has maintained similar strikeout, swinging-strike, home-run and ground-ball rates in 2018; his unsightly ERA is tied somewhat to his worsened control but also to a fluky low 61.6 percent strand rate. Certainly, other clubs see plenty to like when looking at Stroman in spite of sub-par traditional stats.

None of that even touches on perhaps the team’s most enigmatic trade piece — third baseman Josh Donaldson. At this point, it’s not clear that Donaldson will return before the non-waiver deadline. The remainder of his $23MM salary will assuredly clear waivers next month, meaning he’ll have a bit of time to prove he can return to form and showcase himself for contending clubs before the Aug. 31 deadline for postseason eligibility. With Donaldson and Estrada both likely to clear waivers, the Jays could well remain active on the trade front even if they move their top rental commodities in the next week.

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