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Like it or not, the best players in the game change teams regularly in today’s game. Take Cliff Lee, who has been traded three times in the past two years. Adrian Beltre, who joined Lee on the free agent market this winter, will play with his third team in as many years in 2011. 

Some players, like Derek Jeter and Todd Helton, seem destined to remain with the organizations that drafted and developed them, but that’s the exception these days, when players at just about every position become available through trades and free agency each winter.

The one exception of the offseason was shortstop. A handful of solid everyday shortstops changed teams, but none of them could be considered elite players. Only one shortstop who switched teams this winter – Juan Uribe – placed among the top 100 position players in WAR last year (3.2). 

Other shortstops, including Jhonny Peralta, Miguel Tejada, Edgar Renteria, Alcides Escobar, Jason Bartlett and J.J. Hardy, changed hands through free agency and trades. The group includes a number of regulars with some impressive career accomplishments, but none of them performed at an elite level in 2010. 

(Jeter, though technically a free agent, did not play at an elite level last year and was never going to sign with a team other than the Yankees even if he had.) 

In case it wasn’t already challenging enough to find top shortstops, some of the best ones around signed extensions that should keep them off of the market. Troy Tulowitzki signed a surprising nine-figure extension that will keep him in Denver for the next decade. Later in the offseason, the White Sox locked Alexei Ramirez up to a four-year deal, delaying his free agency by at least two years.

Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers signed Stephen Drew (pictured) to a two-year extension after a year in which he posted an .810 OPS and a second consecutive above-average UZR/150 (10.0 in ’10). However, Drew’s deal is unlike the others in that it won’t necessarily postpone his free agency.

If the D’Backs fall out of contention early again this summer, teams could inquire on Drew. Similarly, Jose Reyes could become available within a few months, so the market for shortstops could finally develop by the trade deadline. Given that elite shortstops are one of baseball’s most valuable, elusive commodities, expect the D’Backs and Mets to ask for multiple quality players in return for Drew and Reyes if they make them available.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

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Contracts are an obsession at MLB Trade Rumors, but have you ever seen an actual one?  We got our hands on a real Uniform Player's Contract, with the identifying details removed.  If you ever wanted to know which other sports a baseball player is banned from playing, how many uniforms the club must furnish, or the maximum amount of life insurance coverage allowed, this is for you.  Click here to access the PDF file.

Kendrys Morales, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Billy Butler, Geovany Soto, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Johnny Cueto, and Phil Hughes were among the players who were arbitration eligible for the first time in 2011.  Several of the biggest names signed multiyear extensions, while other top players signed one-year deals in the $3-4MM range.  For most players, arbitration eligibility is their first shot at a million-dollar salary.  Let's go around the diamond and look at the potential notable first-timers for 2012.  I've included some potential Super Twos, based on the possibility of the cutoff being in the range of two years and 120 days.

Catchers

Nick Hundley leads this small group, which also includes John Baker.  Hundley may set a career-high for playing time this year, and he has extra financial incentive to produce.

First Basemen

Not much here aside from Oakland's Daric Barton.  His agent at Legacy Sports Group faces the tough task of getting the arbitration system to properly value walks.

Second Basemen

Gordon Beckham of the White Sox might be the most interesting name here, if service time of 2.123 results in Super Two status.  Sean Rodriguez, Mike Aviles, and Blake DeWitt should also be arbitration eligible after the season.

Shortstops

The Rangers' Elvis Andrus heads the first-time arbitration eligible shortstops.  Offensively, his agent's pitch might be based on runs scored and stolen bases.  Jed Lowrie and Paul Janish also should be arbitration eligible.

Third Basemen

Casey McGehee and Pablo Sandoval top the list of first-timers at the hot corner.  Their cases figure to be linked, as they currently have very similar career home run and RBI numbers.

Outfielders

It's time for the Pirates to consider an extension for Andrew McCutchen, who will be arbitration eligible after the season after adding to his already impressive numbers.  Colby Rasmus and Brett Gardner are also in line for arbitration paydays, with Travis Snider a potential Super Two at a projected 2.126.  Chris Coghlan, Will Venable, Seth Smith, and Dexter Fowler are a few of the other arbitration eligible outfielders.

Starting Pitchers

Many of the game's best young starters will be arbitration eligible after the 2011 season, if they're not extended first.  Clayton Kershaw, Clay Buchholz, Max Scherzer, Trevor Cahill, Jaime Garcia, and Gio Gonzalez are the headliners, but don't forget J.A. Happ, Brett Cecil, Randy Wells, Justin Masterson, Jordan Zimmermann, Clayton Richard, Jeff Niemann, Homer Bailey, and Phil Coke.  Three who have a chance at Super Two, especially if the cutoff keeps decreasing: Tommy Hanson (2.120), Derek Holland (2.120), and Ian Kennedy (2.124).    

Relievers

Andrew Bailey, Daniel Bard, Luke Gregerson, Tyler Clippard, Evan Meek, and Sergio Romo are the top relievers who project to be first-time arbitration eligible after 2011.  Plenty more are in the mix, including Kevin Jepsen, Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs (2.125), Joe Thatcher, Tony Sipp, Ryan Perry, Jose Mijares, and David Robertson.

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Some teams don't concern themselves with service time manipulation, for example the Braves in the case of Jason Heyward last year.  Others are all about it, taking great pains to ensure the player's free agency is delayed by a year and that he avoids Super Two status.

By my calculations, the MLB regular season is 182 days long this year (March 31st through September 28th).  172 days of service time represents one year, so a team just has to make sure their top prospect makes his MLB debut at a point where it's impossible to accrue more than 171 days.  In 2011, that point appears to be April 11th or later.

For example, if the Mariners feel Michael Pineda is ready to join their rotation, they can at least wait until April 11th to call him up.  This would ensure he's eligible for free agency after the 2017 season at the earliest.  Call him up on April 10th or earlier, and if he stays in the Majors continuously you only control him through 2016.  Jesus Montero, Zach Britton, and Matt Dominguez are a few other top prospects in the running to break camp with their teams and have their service time clocks start on March 31st.  Brandon Belt and Brett Lawrie, meanwhile, appear ticketed for Triple-A. 

The best recent example of a possible intentional free agency postponement is the Rays' Evan Longoria, who started the '08 season at Triple-A and spent 13 days there before making his big league debut.  He ended up accruing 170 days of service time in '08, two days short of a full year.  Rays players were unhappy when Longoria was reassigned, but executive vice president Andrew Friedman said service time considerations were "virtually irrelevant" in their decision because the Rays expected to sign the third baseman long-term.  Longoria didn't get much Triple-A seasoning that year, but his April 12th call-up was necessitated by Willy Aybar going on the DL.  Whether Longoria would have gotten the call had Aybar's injury occurred three days earlier, we'll never know. 

The Rays managed to lock Longoria up to an unprecedented contract less than a week after his debut.  But in that contract, 2014 represents his first free agent year, when it would have been 2013 had he broken camp with the team.  As it stands, Longoria gave the team club options on three free agent years.  Had he been called up a few days earlier, the contract might only allow for options through 2015 instead of '16.

Regardless of their intent regarding Longoria's debut, the Rays at least couldn't be accused of trying to prevent him from going to arbitration four times as a Super Two player.  That may have been the plan for Jay Bruce and Matt Wieters, though the Reds were probably surprised to see Bruce eligible for Super Two status with two years and just 125 days of service time.  Super Two manipulations may be more trouble than they're worth, especially with possible changes coming in the next collective bargaining agreement.

We outlined our American League trade candidates here; let's head over to the National League.

The Mets and Pirates strike me as two teams unlikely to contend in 2011.  The Nationals, Astros, Diamondbacks, and Padres all made win-now type moves this offseason, but at least a few of these teams will be below .500 on July 31st.

• Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Francisco Rodriguez could be big-name trade chips for the Mets if they're healthy and playing well in July.  Sandy Alderson could at least listen on Mike Pelfrey and Angel Pagan to see if someone will overpay.  Additionally, most of the Mets' free agent signings profile as potential trade bait – Chris Capuano, Chris Young, D.J. Carrasco, Ronny Paulino, and Scott Hairston.
• The Pirates figure to be open to offers on many of their veterans – Paul Maholm, Ryan Doumit, and Lyle Overbay for example.  I can also envision Neal Huntington trying to extract a significant return for Joel Hanrahan.  Kevin Correia and Matt Diaz, signed to two-year deals, might stay put. 
• Like the Orioles, I think the Nationals might strive for a .500 season and hold on to their veterans if they're close.  If not, Jason Marquis, Ivan Rodriguez, Jerry Hairston Jr., Rick Ankiel, Todd Coffey, Livan Hernandez, and Nyjer Morgan could be available.
• The Astros' actions, such as extending Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez and bringing in Clint Barmes and Bill Hall, are not those of a rebuilding club.  They might find Jeff Keppinger expendable, but I'm not counting on them listening on Myers, Rodriguez, or Hunter Pence.
• Likewise the Diamondbacks aren't in rebuilding mode, so they'd have to be playing pretty badly to start shopping Kelly Johnson, Stephen Drew, and Justin Upton.  Less-critical veterans could be on the move.
• If things go wrong for the Padres I do see them moving parts, such as Heath Bell, Ryan Ludwick, Aaron Harang, Brad Hawpe, Chad Qualls, and Jorge Cantu.
• Clubs with strong depth include the Braves and Reds at starting pitcher and the Nationals at catcher.  Again, it's tough to identify an ace starter who could hit the trade block.  I don't see Chris Carpenter on the move unless things are really, really bad for St. Louis. 

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It's never too early to try to predict which players will be traded in July.  Here's a look at American League possibilities.

This is not meant as a slight toward the Orioles, Indians, Royals, and Mariners, but their chances of contention in 2011 appear slim.  Given their division, the Blue Jays face long odds as well.  Anything is possible; I pegged the Padres as deadline sellers before the 2010 season.

• If the Orioles shift into sell mode, veterans on one-year deals or in the last year of their contracts such as Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, Mike Gonzalez, Koji Uehara, Justin Duchscherer, and Cesar Izturis could be available.  Though they're controlled beyond 2011, Luke Scott, Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Gregg, Josh Bell, Nolan Reimold, and Felix Pie might not be off-limits either.  Keep in mind that if the Orioles are hovering around .500 at the trade deadline they may decide to keep everyone or even add a piece.
• Grady Sizemore headlines the Indians' list of movable trade chips, if he has a solid, healthy first half.  Fausto Carmona would be tougher to pry loose, while recent signees Austin Kearns, Chad Durbin, Orlando Cabrera, and Nick Johnson should be available.  Shin-Soo Choo, though under team control through 2013, could command multiple top prospects if the Indians decide to cash him in.
• Joakim Soria could reasonably be part of the next good Royals club, so he probably won't be available.  Jason Kendall, Kyle Davies, Jeff Francoeur, Bruce Chen, Jeff Francis, Robinson Tejeda, Melky Cabrera, and Wilson Betemit should be fair game.
• The Mariners recently stated they won't be trading Felix Hernandez.  Instead, Chone Figgins, Jack Wilson, David Aardsma, Jack Cust, Brandon League, Chris Ray, Manny Delcarmen, and Erik Bedard could find themselves in the rumor mill.
• The Blue Jays held on to their relievers last summer.  If they lessen their demands this year, they could offer Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Jason Frasor, Octavio Dotel, and Shawn Camp.  Juan Rivera, Aaron Hill, and Edwin Encarnacion seem like potential trade candidates as well.
• Kelly Shoppach and James Shields of the Rays, Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron of the Red Sox, Michael Young of the Rangers, and Edwin Jackson of the White Sox could be trade chips even with these teams in contention.  And don't forget the possibility of would-be contenders flopping badly and selling off parts, similar to the '10 Mariners.
• One thing you will not notice in this group of speculative trade candidates for the American League is a frontline starting pitcher.  Even identifying a good surprise candidate is tough, unless things go awry for the Twins and they field offers for Francisco Liriano.

If not for an extension widely expected to be signed with the Red Sox, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez would be entering his walk year with a chance to join Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols on the free agent market.  What other players would have been free agents for the first time after the 2011 season, if not for multiyear deals signed earlier?

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