Uncategorized News & Rumors

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Back on November 10th, MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Mark Polishuk, Ben Nicholson-Smith, and Mike Axisa joined me in an attempt to predict destinations for my top 50 free agents.  As expected, the best of us still batted under .300, even with gimmes like Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter in the mix.  On 18 of the 50 players, at least one of us guessed correctly, including impressive picks for Orlando Hudson, J.J. Putz, Derrek Lee, Joaquin Benoit, Kevin Correia, Yorvit Torrealba, Juan Uribe, and Andy Pettitte.

Our winner was Mark Polishuk, with 12 out of 50 – a .240 batting average.  Mark's especially shrewd picks for Lee, Benoit, Correia, and Torrealba pushed him to the top.  Here are the correct picks from each MLBTR writer.

• Mark Polishuk (12) – Victor Martinez, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Carl Pavano, Jake Westbrook, Aubrey Huff, Jim Thome, Magglio Ordonez, Derrek Lee, Joaquin Benoit, Kevin Correia, Yorvit Torrealba
• Steve Adams (11) – Victor Martinez, Mariano Rivera, Paul Konerko, Derek Jeter, Jake Westbrook, Aubrey Huff, Jim Thome, Magglio Ordonez, Orlando Hudson, J.J. Putz, Kerry Wood
• Tim Dierkes (10) – Victor Martinez, Mariano Rivera, Paul Konerko, Derek Jeter, Carl Pavano, Jake Westbrook, Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, Andy Pettitte, Kerry Wood
• Ben Nicholson-Smith (9) – Mariano Rivera, Paul Konerko, Derek Jeter, Carl Pavano, Jake Westbrook, Aubrey Huff, Jim Thome, Kevin Correia, Kerry Wood
• Mike Axisa (6) – Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Jake Westbrook, Jim Thome, Magglio Ordonez, J.J. Putz

Of the top five free agents – Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth, and Adam Dunn – none of us had a correct pick.  It's safe to say this was an offseason full of surprising signings.  Next time we'll try to get the entire writing team involved, and also give you a chance to make your picks.

If you're wondering who represents your favorite player or which agency has the most players on your favorite team, check out MLBTR's new Agency Database. Accessible through the Tools tab on the navigation bar, the database allows you to sort by player, team and agency.

For example, if you wanted to determine which Orioles are with Beverly Hills Sports Council, you'd be able to find out the answer after a few clicks. The database is free, constantly updated and unlike anything else on the web. Check it out.

You can send questions or corrections to mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Baseball America's annual farm system rankings are out, with a few changes from their 2011 Handbook due to the Matt Garza trade.  The Rays' haul pushed them to #2 over the Braves, while the Cubs' losses knocked them from #8 to #16.

For more farm system rankings, check out ESPN's Keith Law and Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein.  Keep in mind that graduating prospects to the bigs is a bad thing for a team in these rankings, which as Law notes represent a snapshot.  Also, Goldstein provides haikus. 

If you look at rankings from all three side-by-side, you'll see that there is a consensus that the Royals, Rays, and Braves should be ranked #1, 2, and 3.  The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Reds have consensus top ten systems, with Toronto placing no worse than fifth.  There is also agreement that the Astros, Marlins, and Brewers belong in the bottom five.  Outliers: BA dislikes the A's and Angels more than the others, Law isn't as high on the Indians but likes the Cardinals and D'Backs, and BA likes the Dodgers more than the others.

Earlier today we looked at the best arbitration eligible position players without extensions, including Geovany Soto, Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, and Hunter Pence.  Now let's tackle the best arbitration eligible starting pitchers currently on one-year deals.  I've included agency info from our database.

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131 free agents signed Major League deals this offseason, ranging from Scott Olsen at $550K to Carl Crawford at $142MM.  The group was guaranteed just over $1.3 billion for 203 contract years, for an average of $6.4MM per year.  The average player scored a contract worth $9.93MM.  These numbers do not include Ted Lilly, Brandon Inge, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor, who were not signed on the open market.

• Right field: $10.975MM per year ($153.65MM over 14 years).  This group includes seven players, with Jayson Werth pulling up the numbers.
• Closer: $10MM per year ($40MM over four years).  I've included only Mariano Rivera and J.J. Putz here, as the other relievers were not signed as certain closers.
• Left field: $9.775MM per year ($156.4MM over 16 years).  This group of ten is greatly skewed by Carl Crawford.
• Third base: $9.4MM per year ($103.45MM over 11 years).  Adrian Beltre makes up almost all of this.
• Designated hitter: $9.16MM per year ($128.25MM over 14 years).  Adam Dunn and Victor Martinez were compensated abnormally well for players who will mostly be serving at DH.
• Shortstop: $8.19MM per year ($73.75MM over 9 years).  Derek Jeter is the headliner.
• Starting pitcher: $7.42MM per year ($229.975MM over 31 years).  Cliff Lee leads the group of 22 pitchers I designated as starters.  Aside from him, starters were paid $4.2MM per year.
• First base: $7.38MM per year ($110.65MM over 15 years).  Paul Konerko leads.
• Second base: $4.84MM per year ($38.75MM over 8 years).  Juan Uribe received the biggest deal.
• Right-handed reliever: $3.66MM per year ($146.28MM over 40 years).  Rafael Soriano tops the chart.
• Left-handed reliever: $3.06MM per year ($58.05MM over 19 years).  Scott Downs got the biggest deal.
• Catcher: $3.04MM per year ($57.675MM over 19 years).  John Buck's surprising deal tops the list.
• Center field: $1.14MM per year ($3.425MM over 3 years).  Center fielders were tough to come by this winter, as Rick Ankiel, Melky Cabrera, and Tony Gwynn Jr. make up this group.
• Click here to download a spreadsheet with all the data.

These days, most of the best arbitration eligible players are signed to multiyear deals.  So far this offseason 25 players signed extensions covering at least one arbitration year, with more to come in April.  It's rare to see a star player make it all the way to free agency going year-to-year.  Many don't even make it to arbitration.  With that in mind, let's take a look at the best arbitration eligible position players currently on one-year deals.  I've included the agencies from our database.

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As two of their top starters look to recover from Spring Training setbacks, the Brewers are considering the idea of acquiring a starting pitcher through a trade or waiver claim. However, they say they're more likely to call on an internal candidate, like Wily Peralta, Marco Estrada, Eulogio de la Cruz or Tim Dillard.

It's easy to see why the Brewers aren't eager to spend on a pitcher like Doug Davis or Kevin Millwood. Zack Greinke probably won't be out for long and Shaun Marcum's shoulder stiffness could disappear soon, so investing millions in a pitcher who won't have a job in a few weeks wouldn't make much sense.

But GM Doug Melvin is eyeing pitchers on other teams and surely other GMs are doing the same. Here's a preliminary, speculative list of starting pitchers who could be available this spring:

• Kevin Slowey – The Twins are willing to listen to offers for Slowey. If they trade him, Scott Baker could take the fifth starter's job in Minnesota.
• Glen Perkins* – Perkins is battling for a spot in the Twins' pen, though he started 26 games in 2008 and 17 the following year. Like many Twins pitchers, Perkins limits walks (career 2.3 BB/9) without striking many out (career 4.7 K/9).
• Bartolo Colon/Freddy Garcia – Both non-roster invitees have impressed this spring, so they could end up in the Yankees' rotation, rather than on the trading block.
• Carlos Silva - It has been a frustrating spring for Silva, who could see Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner win the two open spots at the back of the Cubs' rotation. But Silva posted a 4.22 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 113 innings last year, so he could have appeal despite his his $11.5MM salary. Perhaps Todd Wellemeyer could also become trade bait.
• Rodrigo Lopez - Lopez may see Brandon Beachy or Mike Minor win the Braves' last rotation spot, in which case he'd be out of a job. Someone would figure to inquire on Lopez, who logged 200 innings in 2010. Kenshin Kawakami also remains available, but he'll earn $6.67MM in 2011.
• Joe Blanton – Blanton's availability has been well-documented. One obstacle for potentially interested teams: the right-hander's $8.5MM salary in 2011 and 2012.
• John Maine - Esmil Rogers could win the fifth spot in the Rockies' rotation over Maine, who has a June 1st opt-out clause.
• Jo-Jo Reyes* – As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explained earlier in the month, the out-of-options left-hander is a possible trade candidate.
• Ryan Rowland-Smith* – The former starter is battling for a spot in the Astros' bullpen now that Nelson Figueroa has won their final rotation spot. 
• Jeff Suppan – The Brewers scored six runs in one inning against their former teammate last week. It's pretty difficult to imagine a deal here.
• Under other circumstances, we could consider Tim Wakefield a trade candidate, since he won't necessarily make the Red Sox. It's not easy to imagine Boston trading the knuckleballer, though.

*denotes out of options player.

Like it or not, the best players in the game change teams regularly in today’s game. Take Cliff Lee, who has been traded three times in the past two years. Adrian Beltre, who joined Lee on the free agent market this winter, will play with his third team in as many years in 2011. 

Some players, like Derek Jeter and Todd Helton, seem destined to remain with the organizations that drafted and developed them, but that’s the exception these days, when players at just about every position become available through trades and free agency each winter.

The one exception of the offseason was shortstop. A handful of solid everyday shortstops changed teams, but none of them could be considered elite players. Only one shortstop who switched teams this winter – Juan Uribe – placed among the top 100 position players in WAR last year (3.2). 

Other shortstops, including Jhonny Peralta, Miguel Tejada, Edgar Renteria, Alcides Escobar, Jason Bartlett and J.J. Hardy, changed hands through free agency and trades. The group includes a number of regulars with some impressive career accomplishments, but none of them performed at an elite level in 2010. 

(Jeter, though technically a free agent, did not play at an elite level last year and was never going to sign with a team other than the Yankees even if he had.) 

In case it wasn’t already challenging enough to find top shortstops, some of the best ones around signed extensions that should keep them off of the market. Troy Tulowitzki signed a surprising nine-figure extension that will keep him in Denver for the next decade. Later in the offseason, the White Sox locked Alexei Ramirez up to a four-year deal, delaying his free agency by at least two years.

Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers signed Stephen Drew (pictured) to a two-year extension after a year in which he posted an .810 OPS and a second consecutive above-average UZR/150 (10.0 in ’10). However, Drew’s deal is unlike the others in that it won’t necessarily postpone his free agency.

If the D’Backs fall out of contention early again this summer, teams could inquire on Drew. Similarly, Jose Reyes could become available within a few months, so the market for shortstops could finally develop by the trade deadline. Given that elite shortstops are one of baseball’s most valuable, elusive commodities, expect the D’Backs and Mets to ask for multiple quality players in return for Drew and Reyes if they make them available.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

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Be sure to check out your favorite team's MLBTR page on Facebook so you can receive and comment on the latest rumors.

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