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Rosenhaus Agency Expands Into Baseball

By Jeff Todd | May 1, 2017 at 10:54pm CDT

Rosenhaus Sports Representation, the powerhouse NFL player agency led by Drew Rosenhaus, is now expanding into baseball. According to a report from Liz Mullen of Sports Business Journal, agent Dennis Wyrick will run the new baseball division.

On the football side of things, Rosenhaus has long been considered one of the game’s major power brokers. He was recently listed among the fifty most influential people in the (domestic) sports world by the Sporting News — joining Scott Boras among player reps on that list.

The comparisons to Boras seem fairly apt. Here’s how Zach Links of MLBTR sister site Pro Football Rumors puts it: “Drew Rosenhaus, in many ways, is the NFL’s equivalent to Scott Boras. He’s the sport’s highest-profile agent with many of the game’s biggest stars in his stable. Drew has mellowed a bit in recent years, but he’s not afraid to get in front of a microphone and go to bat for his clients. And, like Jay-Z, his name value could help him quickly land big-time baseball players.”

Indeed, Rosenhaus’s NFL client list features many notable names, including Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown, Redskins wide receiver Terrelle Pryor, and Bills running back LeSean McCoy. In the past, stars like Terrell Owens, Warren Sapp, Plaxico Burress, and Chad Johnson/Ochocinco have entrusted their contracts and marketing to Rosenhaus’s team. Of course, Rosenhaus and co. will have their work cut out if they hope to build a similarly impressive group of clients on the baseball side.

NL Notes: D-backs, Mets, Phillies, Nats

By Connor Byrne | April 23, 2017 at 7:08pm CDT

The Diamondbacks could be in for bad news regarding right-hander Shelby Miller, who, as Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com tweets, exited his start Sunday with forearm tightness. Arizona is scheduling an MRI for Miller, who lasted four-plus innings and allowed three earned runs in a loss to the Dodgers. Manager Torey Lovullo is trying to be optimistic, notes Bloom, but Steve Gilbert of MLB.com observes (on Twitter) that the situation is “not good.” Forearm tightness often portends Tommy John surgery, which would be the biggest setback yet in Miller’s rocky tenure with the Diamondbacks. The club’s previous regime drew seemingly endless criticism for sending a Dansby Swanson– and Ender Inciarte-led package to the Braves for Miller two winters ago. General manager Dave Stewart and senior vice president of baseball operations De Jon Watson lost their jobs last fall after Miller struggled through a 2016 to forget, pitching to a 6.15 ERA in 101 major league innings and enduring a demotion to the minor leagues. Thanks in part to improved velocity, though, Miller has fared respectably this year with a 4.09 ERA and 3.29 FIP in 22 frames.

Nationals To Select Contract Of Jeremy Guthrie

By Jeff Todd | April 7, 2017 at 6:17pm CDT

The Nationals are set to select the contract of veteran righty Jeremy Guthrie, manager Dusty Baker told reporters including Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). As had been expected, he’ll make a start against the Phillies tomorrow, though it’s not yet clear what his role will be thereafter.

Entering camp, Guthrie seemed a longshot to make the talent-laden Nats roster. After all, he struggled badly in 2015 and did not suit up last season. But Guthrie reportedly showed up with a big fastball and turned in a nice spring stat line.

Over 18 2/3 innings, he allowed just five earned runs on a meager ten hits while racking up 15 punchouts to go with five walks. Whether or not he can carry that success into the regular season in his age-38 campaign remains to be seen, but it could be interesting to see how the longtime starter fares in a relief role. To this stage, over a dozen MLB seasons, Guthrie has entered from the pen only 33 times.

The Nats have long been expected to turn over the fifth starter’s role to Joe Ross, who owns a 3.52 ERA over the first 181 2/3 innings of his young career. But he was optioned to open the year, allowing the club to better utilize that roster spot to begin the season. That also meant Ross couldn’t be recalled for tomorrow’s outing, since he’s required to spend ten days on optional assignment.

A corresponding move has yet to be announced, but the obvious approach would be to option one of their reserves — infielder Wilmer Difo or outfielder Michael Taylor, most likely. Things get trickier after that, though. Washington could simply outright Guthrie after the start. It could move him to the pen and bump another reliever when it’s time to call upon Ross — though unless there’s a DL placement needed that’d likely mean placing the out-of-options Enny Romero on waivers. Or, that pen placement could be facilitated by optioning whichever reserve (Difo or Taylor) doesn’t lose his spot tomorrow. Perhaps there’s at least some possibility, too, that the club could hold Ross back in Triple-A and allow Guthrie to keep a rotation spot for some time.

It’s hard to know just how the team will proceed at this part; it could be dependent at least in part upon how Guthrie performs, and the plan could always change as circumstances dictate. The most likely course, it seems, would be for the optionable position players to head back to Triple-A for regular playing time to make room for Ross, leaving Guthrie to function in a swingman role. Baker could utilize him much as he did Yusmeiro Petit in 2016, when Petit threw 62 innings over 36 relief appearances and one start.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

By Jeff Todd | April 4, 2017 at 11:27am CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Phillies’ front office, which continues to chart a steady rebuilding course, added short-term veterans to supplement a group of young talent that is steadily matriculating to the majors.

Major League Signings

Jeremy Hellickson, SP: one year, $17.2MM (accepted qualifying offer)
Michael Saunders, OF: one year, $9MM (includes $1MM buyout on $11MM club option)
Joaquin Benoit, RP: one year, $7.5MM
Andres Blanco, IF: one year, $3MM
Total spend: $36.7MM.

Trades And Claims

Acquired SP Clay Buchholz from Red Sox in exchange for 2B Josh Tobias
Acquired 2B/OF Howie Kendrick from Dodgers in exchange for 1B/OF Darin Ruf, 2B/OF Darnell Sweeney
Acquired RP Pat Neshek from Astros in exchange for cash/PTBNL (exercised $6MM club option)
Acquired RP Pat Venditte from Mariners for OF Joey Curletta
Acquired RP Mario Sanchez from Nationals as PTBNL in exchange for RP Jimmy Cordero
Claimed RP David Rollins from Rangers (later lost via waiver claim)
Claimed 3B Richie Shaffer from Mariners (later lost via waiver claim)

Notable Minor League Signings

Pedro Beato, Sean Burnett (released), Chris Coghlan (released), Pedro Florimon, Hector Gomez, Ryan Hanigan (released), Bryan Holoday (released), Daniel Nava, Cesar Ramos

Extensions

Odubel Herrera, OF: five years, $30.5MM (includes 2022 & 2023 club options)

Notable Losses

Cody Asche (non-tendered), Peter Bourjos, A.J. Ellis, Matt Harrison (still owed $15MM), David Hernandez, Ryan Howard (declined club option), Charlie Morton (declined mutual option), Ruf

Phillies Roster; Phillies Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

With Ryan Howard’s departure, the Phillies have fully shed the stars that made up the organization’s most recent contending roster — with their salaries also now departing the payroll. Philadelphia is now building a new core, and just made the first long-term commitment to one of those pieces.

If you look at the Phillies’ future balance sheet, there’s just one name on it: Odubel Herrera, the former Rule 5 pick who is now controlled through 2023 after striking an extension over the winter. We’ll have more on that move below, in the “deal of note” section.

Interestingly, that was really the only significant forward-looking move the Phils made over the winter. There was some trade chatter, mostly surrounding second baseman Cesar Hernandez, but there was no urgency to deal him with three years of arbitration control remaining. And the Phils were never rumored to be chasing any controllable major leaguers.

Instead, the club seems content to nurture its existing group of young talent while continuing to build through the draft. But that’s not to say that GM Matt Klentak and company sat on their hands all winter. With massive spending capacity and a new TV contract, the plan called for some fairly significant investments in the 2017 roster — none of which, notably, will impact the future payroll.

That $36.7MM total spending figure listed above is a bit misleading. In addition to its free-agent commitments, Philadelphia struck three separate trades that essentially functioned the same way. The team gave up little in the way of players, but took on $30MM in salary. Combined with the open-market moves, two-thirds of Philly’s approximately $100MM Opening Day payroll comes from newly-added veterans.

So, what did they get for their money? There was no singular focus akin to the Braves’ and Padres’ rotation overhauls. Instead, the Phillies splashed veterans across the roster.

The rotation features some appealing young talent, though the Phillies obviously hoped to relieve the pressure on the arms that will be needed for the long haul. Jeremy Hellickson represented the first major addition when he somewhat surprisingly accepted the qualifying offer issued by the club. While the Phils surely would have been happy to recoup a draft pick, it’s hardly the worst result given the strategy. That said, if the club hopes to cash in on its thus-far worthwhile investment in Hellickson, it’ll need to deal him at the deadline; under the new rules, he’s not eligible for another QO.

Despite the return of Hellickson, the Phillies elected to add Clay Buchholz to a staff that’ll also feature Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez, and Jerad Eickhoff. There were alternatives to adding another veteran — Jake Thompson reached the majors last year and several 40-man members are throwing at Triple-A — but Philadelphia elected to take on Buchholz in hopes of a resurgence. If he can carry forward his strong work late in 2016 (2.86 ERA over his final 44 innings), then the Phillies can shop him over the summer or perhaps make a qualifying offer at season’s end.

The bullpen saw additions, too, with Pat Neshek coming via trade and Joaquin Benoit arriving from the open market. These elder statesmen both had promising results last year, but also come with questions. Neshek carried a 3.06 ERA while allowing less than one baserunner per inning through his typical blend of few walks and weak contact. But his success was driven by a BABIP-against mark (.216) that was even lower than usual (.236 career), and he was bombed when allowed to face lefties (.240/.321/.646 and ten home runs in just 55 plate appearances). Benoit, meanwhile, allowed just one earned run on 17 hits in his 23 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays, but had struggled with his control and long ball susceptibility over the first half of the season with the Mariners.

With the infield accounted for, Klentak and his charges turned to addressing an outfield that had received meager contributions from the corners in 2016. The first move, acquiring Howie Kendrick, may have been made in part to provide cover in the event that a deal was struck involving Hernandez. But the former second baseman was always penciled in to play left, and that’s where he’ll open the season. A paragon of consistency at the plate for the bulk of his career, Kendrick fell off last season and ended up hitting just .255/.326/.366 — though he did substantially increase his walk rate. While there’s not much upside to him as a left fielder, Kendrick at least represents a sturdy veteran who’ll plug a hole.

Next, the Phils staked a more interesting bet on Michael Saunders, whose deal includes an option for 2018. The 30-year-old was finally healthy and productive last year, though he faded badly after an outstanding start. Still, the overall results — .253/.338/.478 with 24 home runs over 558 plate appearances — were quite good, and Philadelphia would no doubt be pleased with a repeat performance.

That slate of moves was accompanied by the re-signing of veteran infielder Andres Blanco, who has been a handy member of the bench for the past two seasons.

Read more analysis below …

Questions Remaining

The immediate needs were filled with the offseason shopping, but that doesn’t mean this is a complete roster. While the Phillies surely aren’t mailing it in, it still seems more likely they’ll end up with a top-ten draft pick than a .500 or better record.

In the rotation, there are both upside and downside cases for Hellickson and Buchholz. The same holds, in different ways, for the younger arms. Velasquez and especially Nola had some elbow problems last year while also battling inconsistency. Eickhoff, meanwhile, will need to manage the long ball to reach his potential.

The bullpen has an interesting mix of the above-mentioned veterans and live-armed youngsters. Hector Neris leads that group, with Edubray Ramos and southpaw Joely Rodriguez also on hand. There’s some boom and bust here, clearly, which is all the more interesting given the ongoing questions with regard to the closer’s role. Jeanmar Gomez earned a big arb salary after taking the job last year, but ended the year with a 4.85 ERA and uninspiring peripherals. He’ll be hard-pressed to keep the job; if he can’t, it’ll be interesting to see whether Neris or one of the experienced late-inning hurlers is next in line.

In the infield, shortstop Freddy Galvis has morphed into something of a Danny Espinosa clone, with a sudden power surge, good speed, and excellent glovework offset by an abysmal on-base percentage. He still seems to be a placeholder for prospect J.P. Crawford, who’ll look to gain traction at Triple-A before making the leap to the majors. Hernandez was the team’s true breakout performer in 2016, slashing .294/.371/.393 with 17 steals and a well-reviewed fielding performance at second. Whether he can repeat remains to be seen. Both Galvis and Hernandez could conceivably become trade pieces at the deadline, or the latter could be approached about an extension.

There’s more of a future-oriented tone at the corners. Maikel Franco failed to follow up on his stellar 2015 season, but hit 25 homers and obviously has the talent to become a cornerstone player. The Phils will be watching his development closely. Across the way, Tommy Joseph — the former top catching prospect who was forced out from behind the dish due to concussions — turned in a surprisingly promising year in 2016. He did enough to deserve a full crack at the job with a .248 ISO and 21 homers in 347 plate appearances, though he’ll need to maintain that power and boost his on-base percentage (.308 on a 6.3% walk rate and .267 BABIP) to lay claim to first base for the long term. Joseph also showed fairly significant platoon splits — he hit for power but didn’t reach base as often against righties — so lefty hitting reserves Daniel Nava and Brock Stassi could spell him at times.

Things get even more interesting behind the plate, where Cameron Rupp is seeking to stake his own claim to being a future piece. He slashed a surprising .252/.303/.447 with 16 bombs, representing plenty of lumber for a backstop. Rupp has some prospects nipping at his heels, though. Jorge Alfaro reached the majors last year, while Andrew Knapp has earned the second-catcher job to open the year. There could be quite a bit of intrigue at the catching position for the Phillies if all three of these players pan out, though it’s also quite possible there’ll be some growing pains in the short run.

That brings us to the outfield. The corner spots could either be a source of stability or see quite a lot of change. There’s no doubting that Kendrick and Saunders will see the bulk of the action to open the year, but that’s subject to change. Injury, ineffectiveness, or summer trade chatter could help lead to movement, though perhaps the biggest driver will be the performances of the Phillies’ next wave of outfield talent. Roman Quinn, Nick Williams, and Dylan Cozens could all push for a promotion at some point during the season to come.

Deal Of Note

If there’s a single position on the Phillies’ roster that’s not in question, it’s center field. That’s now the domain of Odubel Herrera, who is one of the game’s more interesting players.

Herrera more than made good on his Rule 5 status, taking the regular job in center and running with it. He just turned 25 and has turned in consecutive seasons of 111 OPS+ hitting — making him a ~4-WAR player with the good baserunning and fielding metrics he has compiled.

What’s so intriguing about Herrera isn’t just that he was able to leap to the majors, but that he has changed since his arrival. His debut season was plenty promising, though a .387 BABIP left some question as to whether he’ be able to keep pace with the bat. Herrera responded by maturing at the plate, nearly doubling his walk rate (to 9.6%) and shaving nearly four points off his strikeout rate (to 20.4%) even while boosting his power to respectable levels (15 home runs, .134 ISO).

Though he did struggle in the second half — most worryingly, he reverted toward his prior K/BB rates — there’s enough evidence to think that Herrera may have more in the tank as a hitter. Even if that doesn’t make it reasonable to expect him to increase his output substantially, perhaps it provides reason to hope that he can actually remain a reasonably above-average hitter.

All said, it’s a sensible investment for the Phils, who can afford to wait to commit but could also afford to stomach a mistake. Even in a downside scenario, Herrera would seem likely to be a strong fourth outfielder, though of course the club has reason to expect quite a bit more.

With Herrera now taking his place on the accounting books, it’ll be interesting to see who’s next. Philadelphia will no doubt be assessing this season just who ought to receive such a commitment. And that, in turn, will guide not only possible extension talks, but also the player acquisition strategy pursued next winter.

Overview

The Phillies are committed to improving the on-field product without hampering their future spending ability. And they are trying to avoid the kind of multi-year austerity plan that would drive away fans while improving draft position. That approach may simply be a luxury available to a bigger-market rebuilder, but there’s also an argument to be made that an even more dramatic approach could or should have been tried. It’ll be years before we can fully assess, but the upcoming season will begin to show some of the returns not only for the Phillies, but also for a variety of other teams on the same general path (such as the Braves, Padres, and Brewers).

What’s your take on the Phillies’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Carlos Rodon Out Five To Six Weeks

By Steve Adams | April 3, 2017 at 2:17pm CDT

White Sox left-hander Carlos Rodon, who opened the season on the disabled list due to bursitis in his left biceps, is currently on a throwing program and could be back with the team within five to six weeks, barring setbacks, general manager Rick Hahn tells Scot Gregor of the Daily Herald (Twitter link). While it was known that Rodon would open the season on the shelf, there’s yet to be much of an indication as to how long of a recovery timeline Rodon would face.

Suffice it to say, an absence of five to six weeks representing a seemingly best-case scenario isn’t ideal news for the South Siders, though the 2017 season is a rebuilding year for the Sox anyhow. Nonetheless, Rodon’s injury shorts one of the White Sox’ most promising young arms of some development time, even if no further issues arise. That’s somewhat discouraging for Sox fans, especially when considering the strong second half that the former No. 3 overall draft pick posted last year.

After logging a 4.50 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in the first half last season, Rodon reeled off a 3.45 ERA in the second half with 9.5 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. Rodon enjoyed a superlative month of August, and while the month of September was more uneven, he flashed his upside with eight shutout innings and 11 strikeouts in his penultimate start of the season against the World Series-bound Indians.

With Rodon sidelined, a number of his would-be innings could go to rookie Dylan Covey and veteran swingman Anthony Swarzak. The rest of the Chicago rotation is rounded out by Jose Quintana, James Shields, Derek Holland and Miguel Gonzalez, though certainly the Sox hope that some of the vaunted arms they picked up in the offseason trades of Chris Sale and Adam Eaton could impact that starting group sooner rather than later; Michael Kopech, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez — each of whom has been regarded recently as one of the game’s top overall pitching prospects — are all set to open the season in the upper minors for Chicago and could eventually knock on the door in 2017.

Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

By Jason Martinez | March 31, 2017 at 10:34pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

While the rebuilding Padres still owe a ton of money to high-priced veterans Matt Kemp and James Shields, who were traded away last season, the players on the current team will make approximately $30MM in 2017. That’s less than the salary of Clayton Kershaw, who they’ll face off against on Opening Day and likely several more times during the season. It’s no surprise that they’re the favorite to land the No. 1 pick in the 2018 Amateur Draft, but that’s all part of the plan.

Major League Signings

Trevor Cahill, SP: One year, $1.75MM
Jhoulys Chacin, SP: One year, $1.75MM
Clayton Richard, SP One year, $1.75MM (re-signed)
Jered Weaver, SP: One year, $3MM
Total spend: $8.25MM

Notable Minor League Signings

Erick Aybar, Collin Cowgill, Hector Sanchez, Craig Stammen, Brett Wallace

Trades And Claims

Traded C Derek Norris to Nationals for P Pedro Avila
Claimed P Tyrell Jenkins from Reds
Claimed P Zach Lee from Mariners
Lost RP Leonel Campos off waivers to Blue Jays

Rule 5 Draft

Selected INF Allen Cordoba from Cardinals
Selected P Justin Haley from Red Sox; traded to Brewers
Acquired C Luis Torrens from Reds via Yankees
Acquired RHP Miguel Diaz from Twins via Brewers

Extensions

1B Wil Myers: Six years, $83MM, plus $20MM club option in 2023 ($1MM buyout)
2B/3B Yangervis Solarte: Two years, $7.5MM, plus $5.5MM club option in 2019 ($750K buyout) and $8MM club option in 2020 ($750K buyout)

Notable Losses

Alexi Amarista, Jon Jay, Derek Norris, Adam Rosales, Tyson Ross, Carlos Villanueva

Needs Addressed

Despite having one of the best farm systems in baseball, the Padres are light on pitching prospects who are ready to contribute at the Major League level in 2017. With a talented (if largely unproven) core of young position players, led by first baseman Wil Myers, and a strong bullpen, the top priority of this offseason was to fill out the starting rotation with inexpensive veterans who can eat innings and possibly pitch well enough to draw trade interest.

At a cost of just over $8MM, they were able to fill four rotation spots for the upcoming season by signing free agents Trevor Cahill, Jhoulys Chacin, Clayton Richard and Jered Weaver to one-year deals. This rotation won’t make them a contender or even a .500 team. But each has experienced a good level of Major League success and should be able to keep games from getting out of hand on a consistent basis. At least that’s what the Padres are hoping for.

Cahill was once on his way to being one of the better young pitchers in baseball—he finished 9th in the AL Cy Young race in 2010—but his career quickly went south. He bounced back in 2016 with a terrific season out of the ’pen for the World Champion Cubs and now the Padres are giving the 29-year-old a chance to prove he can maintain that success while returning to a starting role. Chacin, also 29 years old and a once-promising pitching star for the Rockies, is trying to resurrect his career with a return to the NL West. He had a strong finish to the 2016 season (0.75 ERA over last four starts) and has a strong track record against the Padres’ division opponents. Richard signed with the Padres late last season after being released by the Cubs and impressed with a 2.52 ERA over 53.2 innings. He has not started more than nine games in a season since 2013, the last year of a four-season stint with the Padres. In Weaver, the Padres brought in a former ace who is trying to succeed with a low-80’s fastball.

Luis Perdomo, a Rule 5 success story in 2016, will be the No. 5 starter, although he’ll likely have an innings limit after logging less than 150 innings as a rookie. Former prospects Jarred Cosart, Tyrell Jenkins and Zach Lee could also work their way into the mix at some point, as will rookies Dinelson Lamet and Walker Lockett. The Padres’ pair of elite pitching prospects, Anderson Espinoza and Cal Quantril, are likely slated for High-A and won’t reach San Diego anytime soon.

The team’s highly suspect rotation will likely be one of, if not the worst, in baseball. But when they do hand a lead over to the bullpen, as rare as that might be, the Padres should be able to hold on for the win on most occasions. If Carter Capps can return to his pre-injury form—he had a 1.16 ERA, 2.0 BB/9 and 16.8 K/9 in 31 innings in 2015 before an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery—the Padres could have themselves quite an effective group of late-inning arms. Along with Capps, who is expected to start the season on the DL, closer Brandon Maurer and lefty setup men Ryan Buchter and Brad Hand will all be highly-coveted by playoff contenders and could prove to be valuable trade chips in July. Veteran Craig Stammen, signed to a Minor League contract in the offseason, could also end up attracting trade interest if his spring performance (11.2 IP, ER, 12 K) is any indication of a return to form.

While the Padres are mostly sticking with their young position players, they did make one notable offseason addition in veteran Erick Aybar, who came to camp on a Minor League deal and ended up beating out Luis Sardiñas for the starting shortstop job. He’ll be yet another one-year stop-gap—Clint Barmes and Alexei Ramirez were the team’s Opening Day shortstops in 2015 and 2016, respectively—as Preller continues his search for the team’s shortstop of the future.

Aybar’s double-play partner will be Yangervis Solarte, who is shifting over from third base, while Ryan Schimpf (.533 slugging percentage in 330 MLB plate appearances) and former 1st Round draft pick Cory Spangenberg are competing for time at the hot corner. Top prospects and NL Rookie of the Year candidates Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe, who each had late-season MLB auditions in 2016, are expected to step into regular roles in the Padres’ outfield with Jabari Blash, Alex Dickerson—once he returns from the disabled list—and Travis Jankowski each getting plenty of opportunities to prove that they should be a part of the team’s future.

Behind the plate, Padres fans will finally get to see Austin Hedges, one of the most highly-touted defensive catching prospects in recent memory, on a regular basis. After spending 2015 as Derek Norris’ backup and most of last season in the minors, he’ll get the bulk of playing time in 2017 with Norris out of the picture, Christian Bethancourt splitting time between the bench and the bullpen, and 20-year-old Rule 5 draftee Luis Torrens expected to mostly watch and learn, having never played a game above Low-A ball.

More analysis after the break …

Questions Remaining

There’s not much sense breaking down the problems on the roster from the perspective of competitiveness in 2017. Clearly, that’s not the organization’s priority at the moment. The upcoming season, rather, will represent a chance to continue adding talent, drive the development of young players at the MLB level, and continue gathering information to inform the team’s long-term plans.

The Padres won’t know how close they are to contending until the 2017 season is winding down and they can assess how much progress their young roster has made. By September, they should have a better idea of which players they want to commit to — or even sign to long-term contracts. Margot and Renfroe have that potential, as does Hedges, if he can provide some power to go along with elite defense. Perdomo could also work his way into the conversation if he can build off of last year’s success.

While Capps and Maurer are only 26 years old and could also be candidates for long-term deals, late-inning relievers have more value on a playoff-contending team. They’ll be among the players drawing attention from opposing scouts. Trade rumors will surround this team from the onset of the season. If their veteran pitchers are performing well—keep in mind that the Braves traded Chacin to the Angels after five mostly very good starts in 2016—Preller won’t hesitate to make a deal.

[Related — San Diego Padres Depth Chart]

Deal Of Note

The Padres signed Myers, their “face of the franchise” first baseman, to a six-year contract extension in January. Including a club option in 2023, the 26-year-old, who finished two homers and two stolen bases shy of a 30-30 season in 2016, is now under team control through his age-32 season. He’s guaranteed $83MM with a chance to make $102MM.

Myers has embraced his leadership role and completely bought in to what the team is doing.

“The vision that (the Padres) have is something that I’m definitely behind,” Myers said at a press conference to announce his new contract. “It’s something that I really feel is something special here in San Diego. The position players that we have right now are really good. People don’t know about them. They’re not household names yet, but they’re very talented and will be very good players at the big league level.”

Signing Myers to an extension—and not trading him before he developed into a star—is an indication that ownership is committed to a realistic plan that could put them in position to be competitive sometime around 2019 and beyond. In addition to giving Myers the largest contract in team history, they’ve also invested heavily on amateur signings in recent years, while Preller has continued to stockpile high-upside talent in trades.

Overview

A Padres team that hasn’t played a meaningful game in years still drew close to 30,000 fans per game in 2016. Those fans aren’t likely to watch their team play a meaningful game in 2017, either. They will, however, get to watch what could end up being one of the best group of young Padres position players since Roberto Alomar and Benito Santiago were in the same lineup as Tony Gwynn in the late 80’s.

What’s your take on the Padres’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Opening Day Roster Tracker 2017

By Jason Martinez | March 31, 2017 at 4:27pm CDT

Having a difficult time keeping up with all of the recent roster-related news as teams look to set their Opening Day rosters? Roster Resource has got you covered.

Below, I’ve linked to depth charts, which include an Opening Day projection, for each of the 30 teams. Unsettled rosters spots are listed in parentheses. “Bench” or “Bullpen” means that there are likely 1-2 spots that are still open. “ROSTER SET” means that a team has settled on the 25-man roster, barring any last-minute injuries or transactions.

Arizona Diamondbacks ROSTER SET
Atlanta Braves ROSTER SET
Baltimore Orioles ROSTER SET
Boston Red Sox ROSTER SET
Chicago Cubs ROSTER SET
Chicago White Sox ROSTER SET
Cincinnati Reds ROSTER SET
Cleveland Indians ROSTER SET
Colorado Rockies ROSTER SET
Detroit Tigers ROSTER SET
Houston Astros ROSTER SET
Kansas City Royals ROSTER SET
Los Angeles Angels ROSTER SET
Los Angeles Dodgers ROSTER SET
Miami Marlins ROSTER SET
Milwaukee Brewers ROSTER SET
Minnesota Twins ROSTER SET
New York Mets ROSTER SET
New York Yankees ROSTER SET
Oakland Athletics ROSTER SET
Philadelphia Phillies ROSTER SET
Pittsburgh Pirates ROSTER SET
San Diego Padres ROSTER SET
San Francisco Giants ROSTER SET
Seattle Mariners ROSTER SET
St. Louis Cardinals ROSTER SET
Tampa Bay Rays ROSTER SET
Texas Rangers ROSTER SET (Starting LF yet to be determined)
Toronto Blue Jays ROSTER SET
Washington Nationals ROSTER SET

Baseball Research Job Opening

By Tim Dierkes | March 20, 2017 at 12:56pm CDT

From time to time, as a service to our readers, MLB Trade Rumors will post job opportunities of possible interest that are brought to our attention. MLBTR has no affiliation with the hiring entity, no role in the hiring process, and no financial interest in the posting of this opportunity.

We are a well-known sports entity hiring an analyst in our MLB research group. You will be working in an office-based setting with other members of a research staff and will be responsible for handling a variety of statistical and other informational needs. The ideal candidate is a recent college graduate with a genuine interest in a career in the baseball industry. This position is located in Southern California (relocation not provided).

Minimum qualifications
• Bachelor’s degree from an accredited university (or sufficient relevant experience)

Preferred qualifications
• Prior baseball or team sports experience
• Proficient in Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint/Keynote

If interested, please reply to the following email address by Monday, April 3, 2017: baseballresume@gmail.com

In the subject line of the email, please put “Research Position”.

The body of your email should first contain your resume, appropriately formatted. In addition to the traditional resume information, please be sure to include any details about athletic experience or ability to speak a second language.

Below your resume, please put 1) your full contact information, 2) how you obtained this listing, and 3) your minimum annual salary requirement. The salary requirement needs to be a specific dollar figure. Applications without that information will not be considered.

No cover letters or attachments. Responses with attachments will be discarded.

If not local, candidates must be able to find transportation to Southern California for an interview.

Thanks for your interest!

Make Or Break Year: Mike Moustakas

By Jeff Todd | March 17, 2017 at 3:22pm CDT

MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings.

There are several “make or break” candidates on this year’s Royals team, with pending free agents Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, and Alcides Escobar all having much to prove. But there’s as much variance for third baseman Mike Moustakas as there is for any of those other core K.C. players, and he’ll face the added uncertainty of coming back from an ACL tear suffered last May.

Moustakas, who’ll turn 29 in September, was long viewed as a quality prospect who just hadn’t gained traction in the majors. Through the 2014 season, he had accumulated only a .236/.290/.379 batting line in over 500 games of MLB action. But Moustakas showed life in the 2014 postseason, raising hopes yet again that he’d finally come into his own on the playing field.

As it turned out, that’s just what happened. Moustakas blossomed in the Royals’ 2015 World Series campaign, setting personal-best marks in every triple-slash category (.284/.348/.470) while driving a career-high 22 long balls. And he continued to draw solid ratings for his glovework at the hot corner, leading to a 3.6 fWAR / 4.4 rWAR campaign in which he finally rewarded the organization’s commitment.

Things were off to a rather promising start in 2016, with Moustakas carrying a .240/.301/.500 slash when he hit the operating table. That’s all the more impressive given that he was held back by a .214 BABIP in spite of a 37.4% hard-hit percentage that is better than he’s ever managed over a full season. Plus, Moustakas had tamped down his already excellent strikeout ratio to a personal-low 11.5% level while boosting his walk rate to 8.0%, just below league average. Moustakas was also showing further strides in converting flyballs to home runs, with a 19.4% HR/FB ratio.

All said, the arrow has pointed up for Moustakas ever since he turned things on late in 2014. If he can regain that momentum and prove he’s back to full health, perhaps the missed time won’t prove a major hindrance to his earning power. A big season from Moustakas could leave him targeting something approaching the Pablo Sandoval contract (five years, $95MM), though perhaps only a true breakout campaign would make that achievable. But there’s plenty of earning power downside, too; after all, Moustakas has been a below-average hitter for the bulk of his MLB career, and anything short of a productive campaign might put quite a different spin on his overall track record.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Statcast’s Influence To Increase

By Connor Byrne | March 4, 2017 at 10:56pm CDT

The Statcast revolution in Major League Baseball is merely in its inchoate stages, as Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan details in a must-read piece.

“We’re in the third inning,” Tom Tango, one of the minds behind Statcast, told Passan.

Statcast, which MLB.com notes “is capable of measuring previously unquantifiable aspects of the game,” became available in each of the league’s stadiums in 2015 and is utilized by all 30 front offices. The system tracked 1,435,241 pitches last year, but it was only scratching the surface, writes Passan, who expects it “to fundamentally change how we consume baseball.”

Major League Baseball Advanced Media, otherwise known as BAM, introduced Statcast and is now working to release data that makes the sport easily understandable to the public in a way that sabermetrics don’t.

“What we’re trying to do is we want to make it relevant and relative,” said BAM CEO Bob Bowman, who’s among commissioner Rob Manfred’s closest advisers. “Relevant to what fans are watching right now and relative to other players and similar situations.”

Tango, Daren Willman and Mike Petriello are attempting to put together a Statcast-based Wins Above Replacement to measure players’ values better than the current iterations of WAR. The version Tango, Willman and Petriello could introduce would lay out exactly how much value each position player contributes as a hitter, defender and base runner and, per Passan, possibly grade players on a 1-to-100 scale.

“What will make our version of WAR intriguing,” Willman said, “is the way we’re going to make it accessible.”

Their latest attempt to measure defense comes in the form of Catch Probability, which Petriello unveiled Saturday on MLB.com in another highly recommended piece. Catch Probability uses a 0-100 percent scale to determine how catchable each tracked ball hit to the outfield is, and they’d eventually like to use it to judge infield defense.

“A 40 percent play and 80 percent play are very close,” Tango told Passan. “Less than a second of hangtime. Fifteen to 20 feet of positioning. At a single-play level, that’s where this thing is going to shine.”

Eventually, BAM would like to integrate Statcast’s data into every major league broadcast. So far, the league has gotten incredible bang for its buck from BAM, which began with investments of a couple million dollars from each franchise. Now, according to Passan, the league’s 30 clubs are worth at least $1 billion apiece because all own a stake in BAM.

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