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Olney’s Latest: Darvish, Gray, Marlins, Indians

By Connor Byrne | July 23, 2017 at 12:16pm CDT

There’s a belief among some rival evaluators that the Rangers will trade ace Yu Darvish by the July 31 deadline if they don’t believe they’ll be able to re-sign the impending free agent, reports Buster Olney of ESPN.com. With Texas unsure of whether it’ll be able to retain Darvish long term, there’s at least one starter-needy team waiting to make a move until it sees whether the Rangers shop him. Consequently, the possibility of a Darvish trade is affecting the market for starters and “muddying the waters” for the AL West rival Athletics in their quest to deal Sonny Gray, writes Olney.

Given that the Marlins’ ownership situation is in limbo, their baseball department isn’t in proper position to weigh offers for outfielders Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich, according to Olney. Moving either could make the Marlins more appealing to potential bidders because their contracts factor into the franchise’s heavy debt, though Olney notes that trading a superstar like Stanton might sabotage the rebranding effort of the next owner. And if Jeffrey Loria’s successor signs off on a Stanton trade, the team’s fan base could see it as a typical Marlins cost-cutting maneuver.
First baseman Carlos Santana’s down season may help explain the Indians’ interest in slugging outfielders J.D. Martinez and Jay Bruce, suggests Olney. The Tribe missed out on acquiring Martinez, whom the Tigers sent to the Diamondbacks this week, but the Mets’ Bruce remains a prime trade candidate. It’s unclear whether Bruce would play first for the Indians, who have seen Santana slump to a .238/.335/.406 batting line in 397 plate appearances during a contract year. Cleveland could acquire a natural first baseman instead, with Olney pointing out that Texas’ Mike Napoli (a former Indian) and Oakland’s Yonder Alonso may end up elsewhere.
It’s a buyers’ market this year as the deadline approaches, so a successful return for sellers could depend more on how much salary they shed than the quality of prospects they acquire, per Olney. As an example, Olney points to the trade Miami and Seattle made this week. The Marlins received four prospects for reliever David Phelps and got rid of his $4.6MM salary in the process, but only one of those minor leaguers (outfielder Brayan Hernandez) looks particularly promising. The quantity of prospects the Marlins picked up isn’t impressing rival evaluators, as some of them believe landing four players was done to make the package look better than it actually is.

Top 60 Trade Deadline Candidates For 2017

By Jeff Todd | July 20, 2017 at 11:17pm CDT

The trade deadline is ten days away, and the market is coming into focus. Click here for the first iteration of this list, which includes an explanation of the approach. Basically, we’re looking at both trade likelihood and trade value (in all its facets).

There has been some movement in the standings since we last checked in, helping drive some of the many changes on this list. Significant deals have already taken place, needs are becoming clear, and the rumors are beginning to offer some insight into who is and isn’t likely to be made available.

On to the rankings (“LR” = “last ranked”):

1. Sonny Gray, SP, Athletics (LR: 2): Gray has been strong in his last five starts. At this point, it may be a surprise if he makes another in an A’s uniform.

2. Addison Reed, RH Reliever, Mets (LR: 3): As an experienced late-inning arm who can get a strikeout and doesn’t issue many walks, Reed would instantly upgrade every bullpen in baseball. He’s a pure rental and is unsurprisingly drawing wide interest. Dealing Reed ought to give the Mets a chance to pad their farm heading into an offseason that promises to be full of intrigue.

3. Justin Wilson (Tigers) & Brad Hand (Padres), LH Relievers (LR: 6, 8): These power lefties could be major weapons in the postseason. Detroit doesn’t have to trade Wilson, strictly speaking, but the demand is there and the team is clearly ready to pile up some youthful assets. Meanwhile, the Padres are justified in putting a high asking price on Hand and his future control. Question is: will they really keep him if they don’t get their price or is this just the maneuvering at the start of a deadline auction?

5. Pat Neshek, RH Reliever, Phillies (LR: 11): Neshek has put up blanks in all but two of his outings this year and is perhaps the quintessential rental reliever.

6. Yonder Alonso (Athletics) & Lucas Duda (Mets), 1B (LR: 8, 14): With Alonso falling off a bit at the plate, these two are in much the same position as rental sluggers that can only play first base. That creates an interesting market dynamic. It’s still conceivable that either could be held as qualifying offer or even extension candidates, but the likelier scenario still seems to be that both are dealt.

8. Zack Cozart (Reds), Jed Lowrie (Athletics) & Eduardo Nunez (Giants), INF (LR: 8, 9, INJ): While Cozart is outperforming the other two and is a stellar shortstop, there’s just no contender that has a clear need at the position. The other two players have greater experience elsewhere in the infield. All three could help contenders and ought to be wearing new uniforms as of August 1st (if not sooner).

11. Trevor Cahill, SP, Padres (LR: 17): His last outing was a very good one, with eight strikeouts and just one earned run over 6 2/3 innings. Teams that want to make a run but aren’t sure they want to give up the farm (or take on much salary) to do it may see quite a lot of upside in adding Cahill.

12. Alex Avila, C, Tigers (LR: 12): The veteran backstop has not hit all that much in July, but that’s a tiny sample and he’s still drawing gobs of walks. He’s an ideal second catcher since he hits from the left side; the bat has been good enough that he could function as quite a useful bench bat in a postseason series.

13. Jay Bruce & Curtis Granderson, OF, Mets (LR: 14): All three are hitting even as the Mets’ season collapses. Granderson is banged up but hasn’t required a DL stint.

15. Anthony Swarzak, RH Reliever, White Sox (LR: NR): You may have noticed that the White Sox are open to trades. Swarzak is a pending free agent with a 2.45 ERA and a cheap salary. While he had fallen into a lull for a stretch, he’s now back to posting clean innings with lots of strikeouts and few walks.

16. AJ Ramos, RH Reliever, Marlins (LR: 19): Though the Marlins are evidently not interested in marketing controllable position players, they are obviously willing to deal relievers. Ramos isn’t exactly a lock-down option, but he has plenty of late-inning experience and has 45 strikeouts in his 35 1/3 innings on the year.

18. Zach Britton (LH Reliever) & Brad Brach (RH Reliever), Orioles (LR: 39): Much like the Marlins, the O’s are said to be listening on their quality late-inning arms while showing much more reticence on other players that come with future control. Britton could be a difference maker from the pen, though his health questions and still-shaky form limits his value. Brach, meanwhile, has been a steady force over the past two years and should command a high price.

20. Melky Cabrera, OF, White Sox (LR: 17): He has been on fire of late, boosting his appeal — though clearly the Sox will still need to chip in a lot of money to move the contract. Cabrera could be a useful platoon piece for the right contender.

21. Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers (LR: 55): The Rangers’ poor recent play is beginning to make a Darvish trade seem more plausible. But this ranking reflects both the remaining doubt about his availability and the huge value that he could have if he is put on the block. While 2017 hasn’t been his most dominant season, Darvish would represent a front-line rotation piece that could significantly change a team’s trajectory (and even, perhaps, give an acquiring organization an edge in pursuing him in free agency).

22. Marco Estrada & Francisco Liriano, SP, Blue Jays (LR: 48, NR): The Jays are fading and these two veterans just aren’t performing. But each comes with his share of upside and would be fairly easy to move (so long as Toronto eats a decent bit of salary) as rental assets. Teams destined for the postseason likely won’t view these pitchers as likely playoff rotation pieces, but more marginal contenders could roll the dice on the talented hurlers.

24. Justin Verlander (Tigers) & Jeff Samardzija (Giants), SP (LR: 25, 41): Neither of these pitchers is cheap, and neither has a particularly appealing earned run average. But their power arsenals are still intriguing and reporting suggests there’s real interest.

26. Ian Kinsler (2B) & Justin Upton (OF), Tigers (LR: 36): With Detroit moving assets, these two have to be up for consideration. Actually making deals will be complicated due to Kinsler’s limited no-trade clause and Upton’s opt-out provision, and demand is in question, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see something end up being worked out for either player.

28. Drew Storen (RH Reliever), Tony Cingrani (LH Reliever), Reds (LR: 29): Both were bombed in their most recent appearances but have generally been quality relievers over the course of the season. Storen is the more obvious trade piece — he’ll be a free agent this winter, while Cingrani can be retained for two more years — but the Reds are surely willing to listen on both pitchers.

30. Sergio Romo, RH Reliever, Dodgers (LR: NR): Romo is in DFA limbo and has no reason to accept a minor-league assignment, so he’s all but certain to change teams — either by trade/claim or through free agency. It’ll be interesting to see what happens here; while Romo owns an ugly ERA and has given up too many home runs, he’s still getting hitters to flail at his slider as much as ever and is owed just $3MM on the year. Perhaps the Dodgers will also take some interest (however limited) in directing him away from potential NL competitors.

31. Hunter Strickland (Giants) & Jim Johnson (Braves), RH Relievers, Giants (LR: NR): We’ve seen some interest begin to materialize in the power righty, who owns a 1.85 ERA on the year — though he has also walked 19 batters in his 34 innings (to go with 36 strikeouts). Strickland will be a Super Two next year; while the Giants can surely afford him, this may represent an opportunity to get some assets — and there’s also the question of his standing in the organization after a high-profile altercation with Bryce Harper. Johnson has been much better than his results and is under contract for just $4.5MM next year. Atlanta will likely keep a fairly steep price on the veteran, though, since he’d likely play a prominent role in the team’s pen next year as they look to ramp up for a real run at contention.

33. Jaime Garcia (Braves), Jeremy Hellickson (Phillies) & Jhoulys Chacin (Padres), SP (LR: 50, 50, NR): Garcia appears to be on his way to the Twins, but I figured I’d leave him where he would have been — particularly since that deal isn’t yet final. Hellickson and Chacin have both been serviceable and would also represent useful innings for the right team. The former is vastly more expensive than the latter, which will impact the way this plays out.

36. Asdrubal Cabrera (Mets) & Freddy Galvis (Phillies), INF (LR: 35, 60): This could be a shade low for Cabrera, as he can still hit and there’s a fair bit of demand in the utility infield market. But he’s not considered a very good defender, hasn’t played third in ages, and could still be kept by the Mets. Galvis has been hitting rather well this year and is a quality shortstop who can also line up elsewhere in the infield. We also haven’t really seen his name come up much in trade rumors.

38. Seth Smith (Orioles), Matt Joyce (Athletics) & Daniel Nava (Phillies), OF (LR: 47): Smith and Joyce are the more appealing players among this trio of lefty corner outfielders, but they’re also paid like it. Each could hold appeal to an organization looking to shore up its bench or find a platoon option.

41. Rajai Davis, OF, Athletics (LR: 58): Davis is also a veteran rental outfielder, albeit of quite a different kind. Speed and defense make him a plausible target as a reserve, if the A’s are willing to cover some of his salary.

42. Welington Castillo (Orioles) & Jonathan Lucroy (Rangers), C (LR: 32): Both of these receivers could be available, but the demand situation is unclear. Lucroy’s struggles are well documented, but his track record still makes him an interesting target.

44. Brandon Maurer, Craig Stammen & Kirby Yates, RH Relievers, Padres (LR: NR): If it seems the Padres’ entire pitching staff is up for sale … well, that’s mostly the case. We’ve heard little about Ryan Buchter, who’s perhaps the team’s second-best reliever after the above-mentioned Hand. Then again, that honor could go to Yates, who’s now through 29 1/3 innings with a 1.84 ERA and 13.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 — despite the fact that he was added through a waiver claim earlier this season. Whether rivals will buy into that sudden rise enough to pique the Padres’ interest isn’t clear. With three more years of control, no deal is needed. The same holds true of Maurer, who can be offered arbitration twice more. His ERA lags his peripherals, but the underlying numbers are impressive (8.9 K/9 vs. 1.7 BB/9, etc.). And then there’s Stammen, the resurgent bulldog who is giving the Pads’ quality multi-inning appearances much as he once did for the Nationals. Excepting a rough start and recent drubbing in a long relief appearance, he has been excellent. While Stammen isn’t as interesting as the other two arms, he’s a rental.

47. Carlos Gomez, OF, Rangers (LR: NR): If the Rangers start dealing, they’ll surely take offers on the 31-year-old, who’s earning $11.5MM this year. Gomez has played well, with a .247/.332/.460 slash and a dozen home runs. He’s also still capable of manning center field and providing some value on the bases, though there’s not a lot of outfield demand.

48. Bud Norris, Yusmeiro Petit & David Hernandez, RH Relievers, Angels (LR: NR): All of these veteran journeymen are cheap, pending free agents who are throwing well for the Halos, making them plausible targets if the club decides to try to recoup some prospect value.

51. Julio Teheran (Braves), Lance Lynn (Cardinals), Alex Cobb (Rays), J.A. Happ (Blue Jays), SP (LR: NR, NR, NR, 41): Teams are eyeing all of these pitchers, and all could conceivably be available. But it’s far from clear that trades can be found at reasonable prices. Teheran and Happ are both valued by their organizations for their future control, while Lynn and Cobb will be hard to deal away even if their respective clubs feel there are viable in-house replacements.

55. Yunel Escobar, INF, Angels (LR: NR): Escobar continues to hit for average and reach base at a solid clip. Though he doesn’t move well on the bases and is no longer a great defender, he’d be another player to be considered for teams looking at infield additions and is earning a palatable $7MM this year.

56. Jerry Blevins, LH Reliever, Mets (LR: 26): Blevins has shown signs of wearing down and the Mets have given indications that they’d rather hold onto him for 2018 regardless. But he’d still surely be available at the right price.

57. Juan Nicasio (RH Reliever) & Tony Watson (LH Reliever), Pirates (LR: 18, 27): With the Bucs suddenly back in the race, they won’t feel compelled to deal these pending free agent relievers. But the club could still explore deals that would bring back more controllable MLB assets. That feels less likely to come to fruition than it was in the case of Mark Melancon, who was traded last summer for exciting lefty Felipe Rivero.

59. Raisel Iglesias (Reds) & Roberto Osuna (Blue Jays), RH Relievers (LR: 57, NR): Both pitchers would be highly valued. Given the volatility of relievers as long-term assets, their teams will surely be willing to listen. But it’s far from clear that any contenders will offer up enough to pry these live right arms loose.

Honorable Mention: Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich & Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins; Josh Donaldson, 3B, Blue Jays; Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles: All indications are that these high-quality players aren’t being shopped, even though their respective organizations seem to be out of the postseason race. Still, all are worth keeping an eye on in the event that a significant offer comes rolling in.

Recently Traded

Jose Quintana (White Sox to Cubs); Sean Doolittle & Ryan Madson (Athletics to Nationals); J.D. Martinez (Tigers to Diamondbacks); Todd Frazier, David Robertson & Tommy Kahnle (White Sox to Yankees); David Phelps (Marlins to Mariners)

Disabled List

Nate Jones (White Sox), Neil Walker (Mets), Howie Kendrick (Phillies), J.J. Hardy (Orioles), Yangervis Solarte (Padres), Mark Melancon (Giants), Brad Ziegler (Marlins), Joe Smith & Chris Coghlan (Blue Jays), Hector Santiago (Twins), Arodys Vizcaino (Braves), Scott Feldman (Reds), Martin Prado & Edinson Volquez (Marlins), Cameron Maybin (Angels), Johnny Cueto (Giants)

Also Considered

Angels: J.C. Ramirez, Jesse Chavez, Ricky Nolasco

Athletics: Santiago Casilla, John Axford, Khris Davis

Blue Jays: Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak, Aaron Loup

Braves: Jim Johnson, R.A. Dickey, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Brandon Phillips, Kurt Suzuki, Matt Adams

Cardinals: Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal, Seung-hwan Oh, Jedd Gyorko

Giants: Nick Hundley, Hunter Pence, Matt Cain, Denard Span, George Kontos, Joe Panik

Marlins: Dan Straily, Kyle Barraclough, Adam Conley, Junichi Tazawa, Tom Koehler

Mets: Fernando Salas, Josh Edgin, Jose Reyes, T.J. Rivera, Wilmer Flores

Orioles: Manny Machado, Hyun Soo Kim, Wade Miley, Mychal Givens, Darren O’Day

Padres: Ryan Buchter, Jose Torres, Clayton Richard

Phillies: Joaquin Benoit, Hector Neris, Vince Velasquez, Cesar Hernandez, Tommy Joseph

Pirates: Josh Harrison, Ivan Nova, Wade LeBlanc, David Freese, Jordy Mercer, Andrew McCutchen, Gerrit Cole

Rangers: Mike Napoli, Carlos Gomez, Adrian Beltre, Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, Jeremy Jeffress

Reds: Billy Hamilton, Blake Wood, Scooter Gennett

Tigers: Miguel Cabrera, Jose Iglesias, Alex Wilson, Victor Martinez, Anibal Sanchez, Shane Greene, Michael Fulmer

White Sox: Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu, Miguel Gonzalez, James Shields, Mike Pelfrey, Derek Holland

Free $500 Fantasy Baseball Contest

By Tim Dierkes | June 26, 2017 at 11:00am CDT

To introduce the new Arcade Mode Fantasy Baseball contests, DraftKings is inviting MLBTR readers to a free fantasy baseball contest with prizes!

Arcade Mode is the new easy-to-draft and fast-scoring fantasy baseball contest. To play, simply select a team of five hitters and one pitcher playing on Monday night. With more scoring and higher bonuses, Arcade Mode makes baseball even more exciting to watch.

Entry into the contest is free. Plus, 150 users will win a prize — guaranteed.

Picking a lineup is simple. Here is a sample lineup from last week:

Arcade Mode Fantasy Baseball is the easiest way to add excitement to the baseball season.

How to Enter:

Draft your five-man roster here
Enter the contest for free
Follow your players live as your team moves up the leaderboard and collect any winnings on Monday night

This is a sponsored post from DraftKings.

Check Out Hoops Rumors For NBA Draft Coverage

By Luke Adams | June 22, 2017 at 4:28pm CDT

Draft day is here for the NBA, and it appears tonight’s event will be the culmination of a wild week. Jimmy Butler, Paul George, and Kristaps Porzingis remain with their respective teams for now, despite plenty of trade rumors, but two former All-Stars (Dwight Howard, Brook Lopez) and 2015’s second overall pick (D’Angelo Russell) have already been involved in deals this week — as has this year’s first overall selection.

Over at Hoops Rumors, we’ll be keeping tabs on all the latest NBA news and rumors tonight, in addition to tracking each of this year’s 60 draft picks. With the draft upon us and free agency right around the corner, this is the most eventful time of year for the NBA rumor mill, so be sure to visit Hoops Rumors and follow @HoopsRumors on Twitter for all the latest updates.

Check Out Pro Hockey Rumors For NHL Expansion Draft Coverage

By Jeff Todd | June 21, 2017 at 10:57am CDT

In true Las Vegas fashion, the city’s first major sports team will reveal their initial roster at an awards ceremony this evening. With the power to select a single player from every other team, the Vegas Golden Knights have held all the cards for the past few weeks. Already they’ve swung deals to acquire young talent and that should continue well into the night. Is Shea Theodore heading to the strip? Will James Neal try for his tenth-straight 20-goal season in the desert?

At 7pm tonight, the team will be announced and Pro Hockey Rumors is the only place you need for all the instant analysis and reaction from around the league. From closed-door dealing to expansion extravaganzas, the most exciting time in the NHL offseason is happening right now. Follow @prohockeyrumors on Twitter to keep up with all the breaking player movement, and download the Trade Rumors app for iOS to never miss a minute of hockey coverage.

MLBTR Seeking Team Facebook Page Managers

By Tim Dierkes | June 20, 2017 at 12:20am CDT

Are you an avid Facebook user and a diehard fan of the Yankees, Cardinals, Red Sox, Cubs, or Braves? Then MLBTR might have a job for you.

For many years, MLBTR has run a Facebook page for each of the 30 MLB teams. For example, here’s our Yankees page. From inception, these pages have been entirely automated, and thus, nothing special. We can do better. That’s why we’re launching an experiment in which actual human fans will curate our five most popular team Facebook pages.

You may notice that for these five teams, the names have been changed. For example, the Facebook page is now New York Yankees News & Rumors. We feel that MLBTR has the rumors, hot stove, and transaction information pretty well-covered for each club, and the team Facebook pages will continue to link to MLBTR for that. But there’s ample team-related news that would be of interest to fans, but would not fit on MLBTradeRumors.com. In this experiment, our curators will be posting news on those topics as well. For example, each game will have a game thread, postgame post, and links to highlight videos, for the purpose of discussion with fellow fans. Other types of news, like a lineup change, breakout performance by a top prospect, schedule and promotional information, interviews with current and former players, and All-Star voting updates will also be covered on these team Facebook pages. This will also be a space for the curator to share links to opinion and analysis articles from high-quality outlets. If you’re interested in applying to be one of our five curators for this experiment, read on…

The Yankees, Cardinals, Red Sox, Cubs, and Braves are the teams in our initial experiment, simply because their MLBTR Facebook pages are our most popular. If the experiment is a success, we’ll add more teams. So, we’re looking for superfans of these five teams only right now. Please mention which team you support in the subject line of your email application.
The pay for this is a flat $50 per month.
This position requires prompt posting of MLBTR articles related to your team, as well as a minimum of five additional posts per day (whether an image, video, link, gif, meme, discussion thread, or poll). We also hope you’ll engage with your fellow fans in the comment section on the Facebook posts.
These pages will be more laid-back than MLBTR itself, so humor is encouraged. Still, the pages will remain family friendly.
You’ll need to know your way around Facebook, to ensure you are posting in the proper format. The position will require usage of our Trade Rumors app for notifications. We’re seeking strong writers, to ensure proper spelling and grammar. And of course, the gig requires deep knowledge of your team and a good understanding of hot stove concepts.
If you’re interested in managing and curating MLBTR’s Facebook page for the Yankees, Cardinals, Red Sox, Cubs, or Braves, please email mlbtrhelp@gmail.com explaining your qualifications and why you’re the right person for the job.

New Features At Roster Resource!

By Jason Martinez | June 2, 2017 at 8:05pm CDT

Over at Roster Resource, we’ve been working hard to keep our readers updated on the state of each team from the Majors down to the low Minors. Not only do we provide up-to-the-minute depth charts with a ton of useful information, we have recently launched three new features that can give you an even better understanding of each roster.

Closer Depth Chart

Our closer chart lists 3-5 relievers for each team with current role, recent bullpen usage and power ranking (overall and last 14 days).
Notable closer workloads with likely replacement(s) for that day
Injury updates
Closers who are running out of chances and who is next in line to take their job.

Rotation Depth Tracker

A look at each team’s starting rotation usage and effectiveness.
View how many (and which) starters have been used by each team, which rotations are eating the most innings and which ones are providing their teams with the most quality starts.
View which teams are getting the most starts out of homegrown pitchers.

Disabled List Tracker

Our “Roster Effect Rating” shows which teams have been hit hardest by injuries using a formula that takes a player’s projected value and numbers of days on the DL into account.
DL stint tally per team
DL start and return dates.
Number of days on the DL per player.

Please feel free to leave feedback or suggestions in the comment section or contact me @mlbdepthcharts.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Zack Cozart

By Jeff Todd | May 4, 2017 at 11:36am CDT

Reds shortstop Zack Cozart has long been an interesting player, with outstanding glovework making him a regular at short despite an often-lagging bat. But he began to show signs of life at the plate in 2015, suggesting the possibility of more. Now, at 31 years of age — with free agency beckoning at season’s end — Cozart is playing like an All-Star.

Perhaps this surge would now be less surprising had it not been for a devastating knee injury that disrupted Cozart’s ’15 campaign after just 53 games. At that point, he was slashing .258/.310/.459 and had swatted nine home runs. Upon returning last year, Cozart fell back a bit in overall productivity, but still managed 16 long balls and produced a 91 wRC+ — good enough to make him a 2.5 fWAR player.

Cozart has opened the 2017 season on a hot streak. It’s still early — he has only taken 97 plate appearances — so it’s best to temper expectations. But perhaps there’s more to it than just noting the surge and cautioning on the sample size. He’s hitting a BABIP-aided .329 and delivering an excellent isolated slugging mark (.220) despite just one home run. That’s all promising enough. But Cozart is also walking at heretofore-unseen levels. He entered the year with just a 5.6% career walk rate, but has nearly tripled that (to 14.4%) in the early going, leaving him with a robust .423 on-base percentage .

As ever, it’s fair to wonder whether that apparent improvement can be sustained. Cozart is approaching, but hasn’t quite reached, the stabilization point for walk rate, and even then you’d have to maintain a healthy degree of skepticism and bear in mind his longer track record. But this is the third straight year that Cozart has shown growth in his ability to take free passes. And there are other signs of a real change that shouldn’t be ignored. Cozart’s swing percentage sits at just under forty percent, well shy of his 46.5% career mark. And he’s not just watching more strikes go by: Cozart has offered at pitches out of the zone just 22.7% of the time, a significant reduction from his 29.4% career average. When he does swing, Cozart is missing just 5.6% of the time; again, that’s a significant change (7.3% career SwStr%).

While his strikeout rate is also up a bit, that’s an easy sacrifice to make when these are the results. It would be silly to expect Cozart to continue walking with quite this frequency, but even a bump up to league average (8.8%) would represent a major change in his profile. That might support a league-average on-base percentage. Combine that with the fact that Cozart has posted above-average isolated slugging marks over the past three seasons, and you’re suddenly looking at a real offensive threat.

Let’s not forget: the real calling card here is defense. Cozart doesn’t get talked about as one of the game’s best fielders, but metrics suggest he is. We’re not looking at a small sample here, either. Since he began receiving regular playing time in 2012, Cozart has been an elite defender. While he has traditionally rated as merely an average baserunner, the glove is good enough that Cozart doesn’t have to hit all that much to be an asset.

So, the arrow is pointing up right now, though there’s obviously a long season ahead. Cozart did miss time last year with ongoing issues relating to his 2015 knee surgery; while it seems he’s healthy now, he’ll need to stay that way. And teams will be watching closely to see just what portion of Cozart’s improvements at the plate can be maintained throughout the course of a long season.

As we watch to see how things progress — gauging not only Cozart’s open-market value but also his trade value this summer — there are some markers to bear in mind. Come August, Cozart will reach 32 years of age — just as J.J. Hardy did back in 2014 before signing a three-year, $40MM extension with the Orioles that kept him from reaching the open market. Hardy was an even more extreme version of Cozart at the plate, and was a similarly excellent defender, so seems a highly relevant comp. Though Hardy had a clearer record of success to that point, though, he also hadn’t shown anything like Cozart’s current changes at the plate.

If you see Cozart as a slightly above-average hitter, whose power is sometimes offset by questionable on-base numbers and patches of streakiness, then you’re looking at something like the profile of Ian Desmond, who just landed $70MM over five years. True, Cozart is a middling baserunner, while Desmond is one of the game’s best. But the situation is flipped on defense, where Cozart’s high-level play at short outeighs Desmond’s versatility. But the best aspirational comp is perhaps Brandon Crawford, whose blend of solid plate discipline and pop with otherworldly defense has made him a star (and earned him a six-year, $75MM extension).

Of course, it’s far from clear that Cozart will be able to score anything approaching those kinds of years and dollars, particularly given his age and the still-unknown level of demand. But he’s beginning to make out an argument that he’s just as valuable a player as some of his better-known peers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rosenhaus Agency Expands Into Baseball

By Jeff Todd | May 1, 2017 at 10:54pm CDT

Rosenhaus Sports Representation, the powerhouse NFL player agency led by Drew Rosenhaus, is now expanding into baseball. According to a report from Liz Mullen of Sports Business Journal, agent Dennis Wyrick will run the new baseball division.

On the football side of things, Rosenhaus has long been considered one of the game’s major power brokers. He was recently listed among the fifty most influential people in the (domestic) sports world by the Sporting News — joining Scott Boras among player reps on that list.

The comparisons to Boras seem fairly apt. Here’s how Zach Links of MLBTR sister site Pro Football Rumors puts it: “Drew Rosenhaus, in many ways, is the NFL’s equivalent to Scott Boras. He’s the sport’s highest-profile agent with many of the game’s biggest stars in his stable. Drew has mellowed a bit in recent years, but he’s not afraid to get in front of a microphone and go to bat for his clients. And, like Jay-Z, his name value could help him quickly land big-time baseball players.”

Indeed, Rosenhaus’s NFL client list features many notable names, including Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown, Redskins wide receiver Terrelle Pryor, and Bills running back LeSean McCoy. In the past, stars like Terrell Owens, Warren Sapp, Plaxico Burress, and Chad Johnson/Ochocinco have entrusted their contracts and marketing to Rosenhaus’s team. Of course, Rosenhaus and co. will have their work cut out if they hope to build a similarly impressive group of clients on the baseball side.

NL Notes: D-backs, Mets, Phillies, Nats

By Connor Byrne | April 23, 2017 at 7:08pm CDT

The Diamondbacks could be in for bad news regarding right-hander Shelby Miller, who, as Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com tweets, exited his start Sunday with forearm tightness. Arizona is scheduling an MRI for Miller, who lasted four-plus innings and allowed three earned runs in a loss to the Dodgers. Manager Torey Lovullo is trying to be optimistic, notes Bloom, but Steve Gilbert of MLB.com observes (on Twitter) that the situation is “not good.” Forearm tightness often portends Tommy John surgery, which would be the biggest setback yet in Miller’s rocky tenure with the Diamondbacks. The club’s previous regime drew seemingly endless criticism for sending a Dansby Swanson– and Ender Inciarte-led package to the Braves for Miller two winters ago. General manager Dave Stewart and senior vice president of baseball operations De Jon Watson lost their jobs last fall after Miller struggled through a 2016 to forget, pitching to a 6.15 ERA in 101 major league innings and enduring a demotion to the minor leagues. Thanks in part to improved velocity, though, Miller has fared respectably this year with a 4.09 ERA and 3.29 FIP in 22 frames.

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