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MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?

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What better way to kick off baseball’s two-day hiatus than by looking ahead to the upcoming Fall Classic? This year’s World Series feels like something of a throwback, featuring three powerhouse starting pitching matchups to get things going. It’s hard to imagine a better sextet of starters from two teams than Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke on one end, with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin on the other.

The Astros figure enter the Series as the odds-on favorite. Houston won an MLB-best 107 games in the regular season compared to Washington’s 93. Houston’s +280 run differential was also the league’s best, again significantly better than the Nationals’ still-strong +149 mark. The Astros unquestionably boast a stronger bullpen than their D.C. counterparts, and their lineup, for all their struggles in the ALCS, was among the best of all-time in the regular season.

All that said, there are reasons one might reasonably expect an upset, even beyond the vagaries somewhat inherent in short series. The Nationals are probably the better defensive team, last night’s glove show by Houston notwithstanding, with Víctor Robles perhaps baseball’s best defensive outfielder. Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto can go toe-to-toe with any duo in the Astros’ order.

Most importantly, though, any Nationals’ optimism is rooted in the nature of the short series. Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin could (and probably would) start six of the seven games for Washington should this Series go the distance. No one’s surprised any time the Nats fly a curly W when any of those three take the mound. The Nats’ pitching depth (most notably in middle relief and setup work) was the club’s Achilles heel during the regular season. Yet the postseason’s heavy dose of off days has allowed manager Dave Martinez to leverage his top arms. To this point, Washington hasn’t felt any ill effects for essentially deploying a six-man pitching staff (the aforementioned trio of starters, fourth starter Aníbal Sánchez, and top relievers Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson). With six days off between NLCS Game 4 and Tuesday night’s Game 1, Washington’s arms should be more than ready to empty the tank one final time.

So, MLBTR readers, we turn things over to you. Will the Astros cement themselves as a dynasty by winning their second World Series in a span of three 100-win seasons? Or will the Nationals’ three aces pitch their way to Washington’s first World Series parade since the Coolidge administration?

(poll link for app users)

World Series Notes: Altuve, Astros, Nationals, Pressly

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Somewhere in the concourse beyond Minute Maid Park, there lies a stretch of concrete that will one day be the site of a statue in honor of Astros infielder Jose Altuve. Saturday night’s 9th inning saw the diminutive second baseman launch a towering shot into the night air of a tied elimination game in the American League Championship Series, sealing with one swing his place in postseason lore.

But Altuve’s ascension to Game 6 October glory is an unlikely development. While this seems like a pat statement at first glance–perhaps referring, as observers often do, to Altuve’s small, 5’6 frame–the truly unlikely thing about Altuve’s story concerns a nascent failure in his native Venezuela. As Alex Putterman’s 2017 story for The Atlantic explained, Altuve was cut by the Astros after appearing as a teenager in a club tryout camp because the organization considered him too short. At the behest of his father, Altuve returned to tryout for the club again, where he ultimately showed enough to earn a $15,000 signing bonus from Houston officials–hardly a considerable sum in an international signing landscape where seven-figure deals often grab headlines stateside. While a recap of Altuve’s many career exploits following that signing would be redundant at this point, tonight seems a fitting occasion to remember that tonight’s hero achieved his place in history due, in part, to familial encouragement and a little bit of old-fashioned determination. Apparently, even the tiniest of prospects can develop into statues, given the right conditions.

Looking onward to the 115th World Series, beginning play on Tuesday evening…

  • With champagne still raining in the Houston locker room, it’s obviously a bit early to talk pitching matchups–but that didn’t stop Nationals beat writer Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post from giving it a shot (link). As Dougherty sees it, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole should square off in Game 1, Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander could conceivably follow in the second game, and Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke project as the matchup for Game 3. For their careers, those six pitchers have combined for 269.3 bWAR. Cole, as has been stated ad nauseam this postseason, is slated for free agency this winter, and Strasburg could follow should he decline the remaining four years and $100MM sitting on the other side of his contractual opt-out.
  • Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle shares that reliever Ryan Pressly had some “scar tissue in his knee [break] off” during his third-inning appearance of Game 6 of the ALCS (link). Said scar tissue is, presumably, the result of surgery Pressly underwent in August to address soreness in his right knee joint. Pressly intimated to Rome that he will be “ready to go” for the World Series. If the pitching lineup Astros manager AJ Hinch used in the ALCS is any indication, then Pressly’s services would be especially vital in Game 4, which could be a bullpen game for the ’Stros. Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington shares that Hinch said in his postgame presser that he is “expecting” Pressly to be ready for World Series action (link).

Nationals Preparing For World Series

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  • With the Nationals having punched their ticket to the World Series, they have some decisions to make regarding the roster and strategy for the Fall Classic. And they’ve been given plenty of time to ruminate on their options. Mark Zuckerman of MASN has a thorough roundup on the questions the Nats will have to answer in the coming days. Of course, their AL opponent will have some influence on the particular choices, but general manager Mike Rizzo and company are preparing plans for either scenario. A couple of bullpen spots could be up in the air, though the starting rotation’s dominance has thus far rendered those choices seemingly unimportant. But with the year’s most important games on the horizon, those decisions will not be taken lightly.

Toronto President & CEO Mark Shapiro Speaks On Takeaways From Postseason, Job Rumors, Game Evolution

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President and CEO of the Toronto Blue Jays Mark Shapiro covered a variety of topics while speaking with Arden Zwelling and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (audio link). Shapiro provides insight into evolutions within the game, the process of identifying talent, and the breakdown of responsibility in front offices. He also speaks in-depth about the process of player development as the best opportunity for gaining a competitive advantage.

He uses the Washington Nationals and their recent pennant victory to examine some of these team-building strategies in context. He starts by citing the all-important playoff axiom: “Just get in.” It’s interesting that Shapiro notes this as a point of contention for him throughout his career, as common baseball discourse stalls on this idea every trading season in divvying up baseball’s 30 organizations into buy/sell/hold buckets.

Those in the “anything can happen once you’re in” camp haven taken a hit as recent postseasons have gone chalk. The last three World Series champions were hardly long shots: 103-win Cubs, 101-win Astros, and 108-win Red Sox. The Nats, in fact, are the first Wild Card team to make the World Series since the 2014 Wild Card showdown that featured two second-place clubs playing on the game’s biggest stage. That season, the 88-win San Francisco Giants defeated the 89-win Kansas City Royals in 7 games.

The “imperfect” Nationals check a couple of boxes on Shapiro’s postseason team wish list: frontline starting pitching and players in a variety of career stages.  Shapiro has “always been a big believer in looking at the different segments of the player population and feeling like when you’re ready to win you need representation from all three.” Young cores rising through farm systems together has been the en vogue team-building philosophy after the success of Chicago, Houston, and Boston, but to Shapiro’s point, the Nationals are succeeding with a mix of young, mid-prime, and veteran players.

The Nats field not only the oldest players in baseball – reliever Fernando Rodney – but they field the oldest roster in baseball with an average age of 31.1 years old. Veterans like Max Scherzer, Howie Kendrick and Ryan Zimmerman have keyed their postseason success. True to Shapiro’s “need to have a balance,” however, the engine of this Nats roster is their young superstar duo of Juan Soto, 20, and Victor Robles, 22. The steadiest production will usually come from those players in their prime, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, and Stephen Strasburg are some of the players that qualify for the Nats. Shapiro sees all three brackets as vital to team success: energy from the youth, reliability from those in their prime, and the strongest desire to win coming from those veteran players.

The full podcast is worth a listen, as Shapiro speaks directly to rumors about different job opportunities. Notably, he listens to all inquiries, but he has not been interviewing for outside opportunities. Given his comments here and before, Shapiro continues to be a good candidate for an extension this winter.

Tim Bogar To Interview For Mets Managerial Opening

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FRIDAY: Bogar is indeed getting an interview, Heyman tweets.

WEDNESDAY: According to a tweet from Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Tim Bogar, first base coach for the Nationals, is under consideration for the open Mets managerial seat (link). It is not clear if Bogar has interviewed for the position, but Barry Svrugla of the Washington Post confirms that Bogar is “involved to some degree” with New York (link).

Being that third base coach Bob Henley was linked to the Padres opening today, it seems the World Series-bound Nats are in danger of having their coaching table rightly pillaged by the rest of the league. Bogar, for his part, offers a pretty sterling resumé, as far as coaches go. The 52-year-old, Chicago-bred baseball man has worked on the coaching staffs of managerial big-shots like Joe Maddon, Terry Francona, Bobby Valentine, and Ron Washington. He earned the opportunity to serve as Texas’ interim manager in 2014 after Washington stepped down, leading the Rangers to a 14-8 record in the season’s final month. Bogar also has spent a little time as a front office assistant to Jerry DiPoto while the latter was in Anaheim, and, of course, logged a 700-game playing career that began with–you guessed it–the Mets.

If interviewed, Bogar would become the seventh man to sit down with New York brass since Mickey Callaway was dismissed on Oct 3. To this point, Diamondbacks player development director Mike Bell, Yankees assistant Carlos Beltran, former MLB manager Joe Girardi, ESPN analyst Eduardo Perez, Twins bench coach Derek Shelton, and Mets quality control coach Luis Rojas have been reported as Mets interviewees.

Assessing Strasburg's Opt-Out Opportunity

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Thomas Harding of MLB.com confirms that the Rockies have dismissed several minor league coaches, including longtime Triple-A manager Glenallen Hill (link).  Double-A hitting coach Lee Stevens and Single-A hitting coach Norberto Martin will also be let go, according to assistant general manager of player development Zach Wilson.

A member of the club’s coaching ranks since 2004, Hill was previously first base coach with Colorado’s big league squad from 2007 to 2012. The 54-year-old Santa Cruz native played for the Jays, Indians, Cubs, Giants, Yankees, and Angels over the course of a twelve-year MLB career. After Hill’s dismissal, top Colorado third base prospect Colton Welker figures to suit up for a fresh face at Triple-A Colorado Springs next season.

More notes from around the National League…

  • In another Rockies item, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post gives an eye toward the defensive improvements made in 2019 by catcher Tony Wolters–while also opining that the club should acquire a veteran backstop to lighten the workload of the light-hitting Wolters (link). As Saunders notes, Wolters, a former second baseman, was charged with just one error last season while throwing out 34% of would-be base stealers, a rate which trailed only J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies. Manager Bud Black, for one, told the Post this year that Wolters had turned himself into “one of the best defensive catchers in baseball”. Unfortunately, the value-added performance hasn’t translated to the plate for the 27-year-old San Diego native, as his .239/.327/.324 line in parts of four seasons would indicate. Weighted runs created plus, which discounts the effect of his offensively friendly Coors Field home, pegs Wolters with a 59 wRC+ in that same timeframe, profiling him as one of the weakest-hitting regulars in the sport. For this reason, Saunders posits that finding a platoon partner for the lefty-swinging Wolters will be a high priority for Rockies GM Jeff Bridich this winter.
  •  Two notes on Nationals players, one bullet point–efficiency reigns here at MLBTR. First up is a piece from MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince, who, in creating a list of eight potential opt-out candidates this offseason, posits that any possibility of Stephen Strasburg opting-in to the remaining four years and $100MM on his contract has been “totally erased” this postseason (link). This seems a good time to supply a standard public service announcement regarding small sample size caveats, as recent history would suggest that postseason performance does not affect free agency decisions as frequently as many would expect. Still, Castrovince might not exactly be going out on a limb RE: Strasberg. While the pitcher’s injury concerns–evidenced best by his team’s decision to hold him out of the 2012 playoffs–have loomed over him for most of his career, Strasberg’s 1.64 ERA across 22 postseason innings this year has arguably gone some way toward ameliorating that fragile rap.
    In a piece with fewer implications on the forthcoming hot stove, every baseball fan would be well-served to check out Rustin Dodd’s oral history regarding the college days of one Max Scherzer, published on The Athletic this morning (link). For Nats faithful feeling the afterglow of an NLCS sweep, hearing tales of some of Scherzer’s collegiate habits–including his ravenous affinity for Cici’s Pizza–should provide a giddy laugh.
  • A Houston source tells David Kaplan of NBC Chicago that Astros bench coach Joe Espada gave a “sensational” interview for the open Cubs manager job (link). Espada gave executive Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer “a lot to think about”, per Kaplan’s source, but the question still remains if Espada can surpass franchise favorite David Ross in consideration for the managerial opening. For the time being, Espada’s ’Stros will square off with the Yankees in New York this evening for the fourth game of the ALCS.

MLBTR Poll: What Changed For The Nats?

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We spend most of our time at this particular corner of the internet focused on payrolls and rosters. The tendency of contemporary baseball analysis is to seek value; to appreciate (in the full sense of the word) the role of fortune and the impossibility of predicting which players will come through in big moments.

But who among us doubts that some have icier veins, or hotter-burning competitive fires? Or that some leaders are better than others at spurring their charges to play at their best … or make the right decision in a key moment? We may not be able to make statistically valid assessments of these characteristics in advance, but it doesn’t feel especially bold to suggest that some players and some teams have more than just a lucky bounce of the ball to credit for their high-leverage triumphs.

That brings us to the topic of this morning’s poll: the Nationals, baseball’s perennial postseason underperformers, who just finished off a stirring run through the National League. You know the essentials of this tale already. The Nats’ four previous divisional series were exceptionally competitive, featuring mind-blowing twists and turns. All ended in defeat for the D.C. team, which always seemed to come up just short at the pivotal juncture.

Not so this time. The Nats came roaring back in the regular season after a dismal start. They returned from the brink of elimination in the Wild Card game against the Brewers, scraping together a comeback against one of the game’s most dominant short-appearance pitchers. They not only pushed the powerhouse Dodgers to a fifth game but won it, overcoming an early deficit and outshining L.A.’s stars in crunch time. And the Nationals finally put to rest their earliest postseason demons — those summoned by Yadi and co. back in 2012 — by thoroughly destroying the Cardinals in a four-game NLCS sweep.

It’s a talented roster, to be sure. But the recent-vintage Nats have never lacked in talent, stars and otherwise. What is actually different this time around? It’s nearly an impossible thing to analyze with any amount of scientific precision. But it’s an essential question to ponder for those that care about winning baseball championships.

I’ve compiled a few … theories, I guess we will call them. What say you? (Poll link for app users.)

Nationals’ Owner Lerner On Martinez, Rendon

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The Nationals enter tonight’s NLCS Game 4 up 3-0 on St. Louis and turning the ball over to Patrick Corbin as they look to complete the sweep. Seeing as only one team has ever blown a 3-0 series lead in MLB history, it’s little surprise Nats’ managing principal owner Mark Lerner is happy with his team’s position. Lerner talked with reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post and Mark Zuckerman of MASN) about his club’s “very special” position and fielded questions about the team’s manager and best player.

Interestingly, Lerner told reporters that firing manager Dave Martinez “never crossed (his) mind,” even amidst the club’s nightmarish start. Despite entering the year with high expectations, Washington started the season 19-31, leading to some speculation about Martinez’s future. After all, the Nationals have something of a reputation for being quick to pull the plug on managers. Martinez’s predecessor, Dusty Baker, wasn’t offered a contract extension after the 2017 season despite overseeing a division winner that year, with general manager Mike Rizzo saying at the time that “winning a lot of regular season games and winning divisions is not enough.” It stood to reason that Martinez could’ve been in some hot water after the club missed the playoffs in 2018 and got off to a slow start, so it’s interesting to hear that ownership was never considering a change.

Certainly, any speculation about Martinez’s job status has gone up in flames over the past few months. Washington’s spectacular second half got them to 93 wins regardless, and Martinez’s club is now on the doorstep of the franchise’s first pennant. That’s in no small part to the efforts of Anthony Rendon. The superstar third baseman put up borderline MVP numbers in the regular season, slashing .319/.412/.598 (154 wRC+) with his trademark elite defense at the hot corner. He’s picked up where he left off in the postseason, pairing with Juan Soto to form a two-man wrecking crew in the middle of the Nats’ order.

With Rendon a few weeks from becoming baseball’s most coveted position player free agent, Lerner predictably reiterated that the Nationals would love to keep him in D.C. “We certainly want to keep him. That’s 110 percent,” Lerner said of Rendon. “It’s really in Tony’s and his family’s hands at this point. They have to decide what they want to do. He’s earned that right as a free agent. It couldn’t happen to a better guy. We love him to death.”

“Good team wants to keep its best player” is hardly eye-popping news, and we know the Nats already floated an extension offer to the 29 year-old in the range of $210-215MM, although it’s possible deferrals could’ve held the contract’s actual value a bit below that figure. As Lerner acknowledged, though, there’s little reason for Rendon and his family not to explore their options in free agency at this point.

That’s not to say Rendon’s certainly leaving Washington; he’ll just assuredly speak with other teams as he and his family attempt to find their best fit. Lerner didn’t discuss specifically to what extent the organization would be willing to go to retain Rendon- in all likelihood, even the Nationals don’t know what their exact breaking point would be just yet- but it seems the club will be in the familiar position of lurking in the background while the face of their franchise tests the open market.

Nationals Notes: Rendon, Robles, Taylor

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Here’s the latest from the Nationals, who take a 2-0 series lead into tomorrow’s Game Three of the NLCS….

  • Could Anthony Rendon be open to the idea of a relatively short-term contract for a high average annual average?  “Some friends of Rendon believe that he’s more interested in a shorter-term deal…because he might not be devoted to the idea of playing for as long as he possibly can,” ESPN’s Buster Olney writes, which Olney feels could make Rendon even more of an attractive target for a team like the Dodgers.  Los Angeles reportedly had interest in such a short-term deal with Bryce Harper last winter, though such efforts fell short since Harper was specifically looking for a very long-term contract.  A premium free agent like Rendon showing interest in only a very pricey deal of four or five years would be a fascinating wrinkle, as clubs would no longer have to worry about a late-30’s decline if Rendon is only under contract through his age-33 or age-34 season.  (The third baseman turns 30 next June.)  It could also create a ripple effect for future superstar free agents around the game, and the players’ union may also not be pleased at one of its top names taking what teams would certainly adopt as a precedent-setting model.  Then again, Rendon’s agent Scott Boras has long aimed to garner maximum money at maximum years for his clients, and Rendon reportedly already turned down a seven-year extension offer from the Nats worth $210-$215MM.
  • Victor Robles is expected to take part in batting practice and some running drills on Monday, manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Byron Kerr).  Robles also did some running today and underwent treatment on his bothersome right hamstring, which was tweaked in Game Two of the NLDS.  The injury has kept Robles out of action, though there is some optimism he will be able to return for Monday’s game.  “I’m not going to anticipate anything until he comes in tomorrow. But he’s progressing and hopefully he will be ready tomorrow,” Martinez said.
  • Robles will regain the regular center field job when he is ready to play, Martinez noted.  This will send Michael A. Taylor back to the Nats’ bench, though Taylor has performed well (.300/.333/.450) in 21 plate appearances since filling in for Robles.  It marked a nice turn-around for Taylor, the Washington Post’s Sam Fortier writes, as Taylor’s early-season struggles led to a demotion to Double-A, before he finally got his swing back on track in the final days of his minor league assignment.  “I was finally able to get that feeling.  I just tried to repeat over and over,” Taylor said about a hot streak that saw him post a 1.191 OPS over his last 52 PA in the minors.  Though he was at one point a top prospect and seemed to be breaking out at the MLB level as recently as the 2017 season, Taylor has been inconsistent over his six big league seasons, but now stands as a very valuable bench asset as the Nationals continue their postseason run.

Nationals Notes: Hudson, Anibal

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The Nationals achieved a 2-0 series lead over the Cardinals in the NLCS on Saturday, with the last out of their 3-1 victory being recorded by pitcher Daniel Hudson. It also marked the culmination of a whirlwind week for the righty Hudson, who caught a fair amount of flack for missing the team’s Game 1 matchup–despite the fact that his absence was a result of the birth of his third daughter.  The modest firestorm surrounding Hudson’s prioritization of family values was, perhaps as much as anything, a reflection of how quickly social media can convert molehills into mountains in this day and age.

Hudson, at least, isn’t losing perspective on the situation, as he demonstrated to Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic (link). “I went from not having a job on March 21st to this huge national conversation on family values going into the playoffs,” Hudson explained to Ghiroli. “Life comes at you fast. Man, I don’t know how that happened and how I became the face for whatever conversation was going on.” Although it’s tempting for many to view ballplayers as mercenaries singularly focused on winning games, Hudson’s comments provide a reminder that the men of Major League Baseball are, first and foremost, men–with all of the same personal issues and considerations that the rest of us workaday humans also experience. We at MLBTR, for one, extend sincere congratulations to Hudson’s family on the birth of their new baby girl Millie. After settling for a $1.5MM guarantee from the Blue Jays last year, Hudson will hit the open market this offseason after pitching to a 2.47 ERA across 73 innings in 2019; it stands to reason that he should be able to secure a new guarantee that will leave plenty left over for diaper money.

More from the buzzing environment surrounding D.C.’s team…

  • In another Ghiroli piece, the unique career of Anibal Sanchez is appreciated in the afterglow of his dominant Game 1 NLCS showing (link). As Ghiroli points out, Sanchez has operated in familiar territory in 2019–as the often-overlooked “fourth starter” operating behind a trio of fearsome frontline aces. During his time in Detroit, Sanchez was something of an afterthought in the shadow of three guys named Verlander, Price, and Scherzer, and he’s taken a similar position in D.C. as the elder statesman of a staff featuring Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and Max Scherzer (again). If Sanchez was feeling bashful about not receiving shine in the leadup to this postseason, he didn’t show it on Friday: in a rousing performance that saw him deploy pitches anywhere from 66 to 93 mph, Sanchez became the first pitcher in LCS history to throw at least 7 2/3 innings and not allow more than one walk and a hit. Interestingly, Ghiroli notes that the pitcher nearly retired in the winter of 2018, even going so far as to tell his agent that he would hang up his spikes if he didn’t receive a contract offer by his birthday on Feb 27–the Twins eventually came calling with just a few days to spare, and the Nationals of 2019 are thankful that the rest might end up being postseason history.

 

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