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Whit Merrifield

Royals Promote Nicky Lopez

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The Royals have selected the contract of young infielder Nicky Lopez, per a club announcement. Righty Jake Newberry will be optioned to open an active roster spot; the 40-man move will be announced tomorrow.

Lopez’s ascent comes as a bit of a surprise. It was just two days ago, after all, that the club indicated it’d be utilizing Whit Merrifield primarily at second base. Instead, the veteran will be bumped into right field while Lopez will take the reins at the keystone. GM Dayton Moore explained that he and skipper Ned Yost changed course after discussing the matter over the weekend. (Via Rustin Dodd of The Athletic, on Twitter.)

The 24-year-old Lopez was taken out of Creighton in the fifth round of the 2016 draft. He is known more for his sturdiness than the types of loud tools that would suggest a lofty ceiling in the majors.

Lopez’s contact ability and keen approach were on display last year, when he logged a .382 on-base percentage and walked more than he struck out in a season split between the two highest levels of the minors. Entering the current campaign, he was billed as one of the organization’s ten best prospects.

While Lopez was already very much on the radar, it’s fair to say he has raised his stock quite a bit already in 2019. He hasn’t yet added significant power — and may never do so, unless he can follow the paths of a select few others that have turned contact ability into dingers in the majors — but Lopez has taken his skillset to new heights in the early going.

Over 138 plate appearances this year for Omaha, Lopez carries a .353/.457/.500 slash line with an outlandish combination of twenty walks against just five strikeouts. (That sort of BB/K ratio is associated with the original Billy Hamilton and his contemporaries, not the active Billy Hamilton who’ll soon be Lopez’s teammate.) He has also successfully swiped nine bags in a dozen attempts, which suggests an avenue for expanding his offensive value with a club that is more willing than most to tempt fate on the base paths.

Whit Merrifield Seeing Less Time In Outfield

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Royals utilityman Whit Merrifield racked up a career-high 39 outfield appearances a year ago, but he’s probably not going to approach that total this season. The Royals are wary of the physical toll that the outfield could take on Merrifield and will try to keep him at his primary position, second base, as much as possible, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com and Rustin Dodd of The Athletic explain.

While Merrifield has already accrued 11 outfield appearances this season, he hasn’t played there since April 11, Flanagan notes. In the Royals’ estimation, the decision to keep Merrifield out of the grass has likely helped him continue his impressive run of durability this season. Merrifield logged 303 of a possible 324 appearances from 2017-18, including 158 of 162 last year, and has been present in all 40 of the Royals’ games in 2019.

Unlike last year, when he was by far the brightest light on a 58-win team, Merrifield’s one of several standouts on this season’s club. At 14-26, the rebuilding Royals are still looking way up toward the majors’ contending teams, but Hunter Dozier, Adalberto Mondesi, Alex Gordon and Jorge Soler are among offensive regulars who have joined Merrifield in providing reasons for optimism. Merrifield, who’s a few months removed from signing a team-friendly extension, is slashing .294/.352/.531 (131 wRC+) in his age-30 season with 20 extra-base hits (eight doubles, six homers and six triples), seven steals and just 27 strikeouts in 180 plate appearances.

Between Merrifield and Mondesi, Kansas City’s infield looks as if its locked down for the near and long term, which will have ramifications on other members of the organization. For instance, those two are blocking hot-hitting middle infield prospect Nicky Lopez, whom general manager Dayton Moore spoke about Saturday.

“There’s nobody left to call up right now [where] there’s a chance to play every day,” Moore said. “What I will say is that yes, we’re very excited about Nicky Lopez and he will have a bright future on this team, we hope.”

The 24-year-old Lopez has hit an eye-opening .363/.463/.513 (151 wRC+) with three homers and nine steals in 134 PA with Triple-A Omaha, all while drawing 20 walks and striking out just five times. Still, if we’re to believe Moore, a promotion isn’t imminent.

Royals Extend Whit Merrifield

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The Royals have announced a four-year deal with second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported. The contract will guarantee him $16.25MM, Morosi tweets, and includes a club option for a fifth year

Merrifield earns salaries of $1MM, $5MM, $6.75MM, and $2.75MM, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan has the breakdown (Twitter links). While that may seem like an odd order at first glance, the front-loaded structure benefits the player by moving up his earnings (notably, in this case, in advance of the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement). The contract also comes with a $750K buyout on the club option, which can be exercised at $10.5MM. Rather than incentive pay, the deal includes $2MM in possible escalators in its final two guaranteed seasons, based upon plate appearances and awards.

Since Merrifield was already under control through 2022, his new deal will cover his final pre-arbitration season and his three arb-eligible years. Merrifield, a client of The L. Warner Companies, will also give up the rights to one prospective free-agent season via option. Of course, that’ll come after he has already reached his 34th birthday — a critical factor in understanding this agreement.

[RELATED: MLBTR Extension Tracker]

MLBTR profiled Merrifield as an extension candidate last March, explaining that he was a non-traditional, but nevertheless intriguing, potential target for a deal. The concept was rather simple, and remains largely the same now, though he has one more year of service and has further boosted his on-field value in the interim. For Merrifield, a deal offers a chance to ensure he locks in significant career earnings, cutting off the risks associated with his relatively advanced age — a factor that also significantly limits his future free agent upside. For the team, it’s an opportunity to achieve cost certainty and some savings for the arbitration seasons while also picking up control over an additional season of the two-time All-Star’s services.

In terms of the financial figures involved, there’s not a ton of cash at stake. For a player who remains a league-minimum earner even after hitting his 30th birthday, though, it’s a big chunk of change. Merrifield might have anticipated topping $16.25MM in his three seasons of arb to come, but not by a massive amount. Even reaching that level of pay would assume he’s at full health and continues at least to be worthy of regular playing time. Looking at a few recent second base comps, DJ LeMahieu earned exactly at that level ($16.3MM) over his three arb years. It’s certainly possible that Merrifield could have topped that with more campaigns like his 2018 effort. On the other hand, despite a higher first-year starting salary than LeMahieu, Joe Panik is now on track to earn a good bit less (he’s at $7.25MM through two seasons) after experiencing a setback season.

From the Royals’ perspective, the risk is limited and there are some clear benefits to this new pact. The broader state of the franchise is also an important consideration, though. Although the club is coming off of a 58-win season and figures to miss the playoffs for the third straight year in 2019, it has consistently turned away trade interest in Merrifield. General manager Dayton Moore declared prior to last summer’s non-waiver trade deadline that the Royals “need [Merrifield] in our city and on our team.” Thus, the late-blooming standout’s extension will serve as the organization’s latest vote of confidence not only in Merrifield, but in its broader slate of MLB and near-MLB talent.

Cashing in on the affordable club control over Merrifield through a trade surely had its appeal as well. Indications are that such an approach was at least explored at the 2018 trade deadline and perhaps in the offseason as well, though Moore made clear more recently to rival orgs that Merrifield was staying put. Of course, the pact may not preclude the Royals from trading him in the relatively near future. The Padres, for instance, awarded reliever Brad Hand a team-friendly extension last January and then traded him to the Indians in July for an offer they simply couldn’t pass up. Such a quick flip seems less likely in this case, considering the Royals’ faith in Merrifield and the team’s desire to avoid a full-blown rebuild. Generally, though, the contract shouldn’t hurt Merrifield’s marketability, even if it doesn’t vastly increase the value of his control rights.

So, what are the Royals getting for their money? A ninth-round pick of the K.C. org back in 2010, the 30-year-old Merrifield has likely emerged as the Royals’ premier player in the club’s post-Lorenzo Cain/Eric Hosmer/Mike Moustakas era. Merrifield debuted with a respectable showing in 2016, albeit over just half a season (81 games, 332 plate appearances), before truly breaking out the next year. Since 2017, the righty-hitting Merrifield has accrued 8.1 fWAR (including 5.2 in 2018, tying him for 15th among position players) and slashed .296/.347/.449 with 31 home runs and 79 stolen bases in 1,337 PAs.

Merrifield didn’t offer much power in 2018 (12 home runs, .134 ISO), but he still logged a terrific 120 wRC+ on the strength of a league-leading 192 hits, a .304 batting average and a .367 on-base percentage. When Merrifield did reach base, he terrorized opposing clubs, evidenced in part by his league-high 45 steals on 55 attempts. He was also eminently durable, appearing in 158 games, and effective in the field. Merrifield earned plus defensive marks in 900-plus innings at the keystone and upward of 300 frames in the outfield, including 241 in center.

The broad profile is of a versatile, multi-functional player who’d clearly be of interest to every single team in baseball. That’s a remarkable state of affairs given where Merrifield’s career stood entering the 2016 season, which he opened at the Triple-A level for a third-straight time, on the heels of a mediocre .265/.317/.364 showing for Omaha in the prior campaign. The intervening development is a credit both to the Royals and Merrifield, so it’s only appropriate that team and player each seem to have a path to benefit from this new contract — modest though it may be in its overall impact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Making Sense Of The Whit Merrifield Extension

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It’s difficult sometimes to make sense of the extensions we hear about. Why is it that player A is earning so much more or less than player B? Sometimes it’s obvious; sometimes it’s not. In some cases, there are relatively unique, personal circumstances that help explain it — some of which may not even really become known publicly. In every case, the actual course of negotiations requires both sides to estimate market value at a point at which there are necessarily still key factors that are unknown. There’s plenty of variability based upon varying motivations of the particular team and player involved. Still, we like to think that market value underpins baseball contracts. Every deal is susceptible of examination from a value perspective.

Given all of that, it seems worth taking a closer look at the recently reported deal between the Royals and second baseman/center fielder Whit Merrifield. Despite two-straight All-Star seasons and an upward trajectory in his performance, he’s promised just $16.25MM over four years — less than the qualifying offer rate ($17.9MM) for a single season. He can boost that by a bit via escalators, but will also give away an option year at a $10.5MM salary. Even in the extension context, it seems like a bargain for a high-quality player who has immense versatility and a well-rounded skillset. So, how to make sense of this?

It all starts with his experience and age. Merrifield is still shy of three years of MLB service yet just recently hit his 30th birthday. Since he didn’t have enough service time to reach arbitration early as a Super Two qualifier, he was still a full season away from commanding more than the league minimum salary, with the inherent risks and limitations of the arb process to look forward to thereafter. Moreover, the recent trends in the aging curve have not been kind to elder statesmen.

Add to that the fact that Merrifield’s most notable skills — hitting for average, speed on the bases, and good and versatile glovework — are not particularly well-compensated in the arbitration process. To be sure, they do show up indirectly in earnings since the process pays players who see a lot of playing time. But power stats (homers and ribbies) have tended to pay best over time than the harder-to-quantify areas of the game. Even stolen bases, the counting stat in which Merrifield shines, aren’t considered major drivers.

Whatever one thinks of Merrifield’s particular outlook, in terms of skills and health, the overall situation was one in which his anticipated future earnings were rather limited. In arbitration, barring a huge power burst, he’d have profiled as a strong but hardly record-shattering player. And his hypothetical free agency was laden with risk. How might he look as a player four years in the future? Nobody knows, but odds are he won’t be quite in his prime, since his pre-existing arbitration control extended through his age-33 season.

Let’s dig into the numbers to see why this is the case.

First, looking at the forthcoming arb years, we can check in on some second basemen and other comps to learn about what Merrifield might have taken home had he elected to go year to year. As I’ve noted previously, DJ LeMahieu represents an interesting overall comp since he just wrapped up his own arbitration run. After starting with a $3.0MM salary, and posting one big offensive season during his arb years, he finished with a $16.3MM total — a near-exact (and perhaps not coincidental) match for what Merrifield will receive.

When I first proposed that comp last March, Merrifield had yet to post his excellent 2018 season. As things stand, it’s not hard to see a path to more than $16.25MM. Just how high Merrifield could have climbed would obviously have been dependent upon what he does in the season to come, but we can guess at some parameters.

In terms of starting point, Merrifield ought to end up with a case for much greater earning power than LeMahieu (.284/.329/.370, 15 home runs, 157 RBI, 1,901 plate appearances) and Joe Panik (.282/.345/.408, 29 home runs, 170 RBI, 1,818 plate appearances), who earned $3.45MM in his first arb year. The Dodgers’ Chris Taylor rode a breakout 2017 and solid 2018 follow-up to a first-year arb salary of $3.5MM. He’s sitting on 39 home runs and 152 RBI with a .262/.331/.435 batting line through 1490 plate appearances. Even if Merrifield isn’t able to push or top twenty long balls in 2019, he’d surely be on track to carry a much more impressive overall statistical baseline than Taylor. He already has more plate appearances (1,669) and RBI (167) and nearly as many long balls (33), with a full season left to improve upon those tallies.

On the other hand, it’s tough to foresee anything like the 34-dinger outburst and second-place MVP finish that allowed Javier Baez to achieve a $5.2MM first-year arb salary. In all likelihood, depending upon how things play out in 2018, Merrifield likely would have commanded an arb-1 salary somewhere between the numbers we’ve thrown out for consideration — say, in the realm of $3.75MM to $4.75MM.

A few other mid-arb players also help illustrate how things could have proceeded in the event that Merrifield would have kept producing throughout his arb years, quite apart from the starting point. Shortstop Marcus Semien entered arb with sixty home runs and near-average total productivity through just under two thousand plate appearances. He earned $3.125MM in his first year after an injury-limited platform season and bumped up to $5.9MM in 2019 salary after launching 15 long balls in 703 plate appearances. Scooter Gennett jumped from a $2.525MM starting point to $5.7MM and $9.775MM salaries, driven by a total of fifty dingers and robust overall productivity in his final two platform campaigns.

With good fortune and some continued improvement, Merrifield could have tracked those or even greater raises. In the best-case, reasonably realistic scenario — fully healthy seasons at the top of his prior power levels (~20 home runs annually) — he might have started at a $4.5MM level and taken home successive $3.5MM raises. That would have resulted in $24MM of total arbitration salary.

Of course, it’s imaginable that Merrifield’s performance, and/or intervening health issues, could deflect him from that sort of path. Joe Panik had set the stage for bigger earnings than that (despite suffering a major ballpark-related disadvantage vis-a-vis LeMahieu), but stumbled after taking down $3.45MM in his arb1 season. He settled for just $3.8MM for the coming campaign and has no hope of approaching LeMahieu’s overall earning level.

Obviously, any kind of significant injury would sap any player’s ability to command a raise. Since Merrifield is not even in arbitration yet, an ill-timed and significant injury (say, in camp this spring) could have been extremely damaging to his earning power. Even if things went well for a time, Merrifield would always have been vulnerable to injuries or downturns in performance. That’s the same for any player, but the risks were amplified (and the future free agent benefits diminished) by his age.

It bears emphasis that the risks still apply before Merrifield would reach arbitration, since he’s still a full season away. Don’t believe me about the variance in arb earnings? Here’s an illustration, using some big names. Francisco Lindor nearly set a first-year-eligible record when he agreed to a $10.55MM contract earlier this month. He has been healthier and more productive of late than the fellow star shortstop of the same service class to whom he’s often compared — Carlos Correa, who edged Lindor in the 2015 Rookie of the Year vote. The Astros star’s salary remains unresolved, but will fall between $4.25MM and $5MM. Despite piling up plate appearances at the outset of his career, Correa is now over five hundred shy of Lindor due to some injuries. Unsurprisingly, he has also fallen behind his contemporary in home runs and holds only a slight edge in runs batted in. Correa still holds a clear edge in overall, park-adjusted offensive productivity (128 wRC+ vs. 120 wRC+), and is still considered an elite talent, but took a down year at the wrong time. Lindor’s playing time and power ramped up in his platform years, allowing him to more than double Correa’s first-year arb earning power.

If $24MM of arbitration earnings represented a best-case scenario, then the downside was more or less unlimited. Obviously, it’s hard to imagine that Merrifield would be cut out of significant future earnings entirely, barring a truly catastrophic injury. But he’s still a full season away. And as Panik shows, it’s not hard to craft a scenario where the earnings come in well short of their anticipated trajectory. The risks are clear.

If there’s something potentially objectionable about this arrangement from Merrifield’s perspective, perhaps it’s the fact that he coughed up a free agent season. That’s where the Royals could find some real upside, since they’ll have a chance to hang onto Merrifield for only a one-year commitment, when he could in theory be in position to take down quite a bit more in free agency.

That said, just what kind of open-market earning scenarios is Merrifield really sacrificing (or, at least pushing back by one year)? It seems rather unlikely, even from four years out, that he’ll enter the 2023 season thinking he left an enormous amount of money on the table.

Take this comparison. We can all agree that Merrifield has had an outstanding pair of seasons. He’s sitting on a .296/.347/.449 cumulative slash with 31 home runs and 79 steals, with his other contributions leading to a cumulative valuation of 9.3 rWAR / 8.1 fWAR. Compare that to Jed Lowrie, who once had his own breakout season at 29 years of age. He was injured in the interim but turned things on more recently. Lowrie just hit the open market at a slightly more advanced age than Merrifield would have, sporting a two-year platform of .272/.356/.448 hitting with 37 home runs and 8.8 rWAR / 8.5 fWAR.

Lowrie’s free agent take? Two years and $20MM. That salary level is reflected in the one option year that Merrifield gave the team in his new deal, which is valued at $10.5MM — again, as with the LeMahieu arb comp, perhaps not coincidentally.

Even in a highly optimistic scenario, such as the Ben Zobrist bidding war, there’s a limit to what this sort of player can earn in free agency. Zobrist was a hot commodity entering his age-35 season, having a long track record of excellent offensive production (well outstripping Merrifield’s overall record to this point) and defensive versatility. He secured a four-year, $56MM contract.

All things considered, this seems to be rather a fair arrangement for both sides. It’s a deal that lets the team avoid a runaway arbitration salary, and perhaps gain another season of a respected veteran at a bit of a discount rate. But it’s hardly the Jose Ramirez contract — another deal involving a two-plus service class infielder who was coming off of a breakout campaign. Ramirez, of course, was just 24 years of age and was just beginning an ascendancy that has continued to levels that were perhaps not anticipated at the time. His deal conveyed a pair of valuable team options — for his age-30 and 31 seasons. The sort of upside present there just isn’t available in the Merrifield contract.

For a 30-year-old, non-slugging infielder/outfielder who is still less than three campaigns into his MLB career, this extension lands in a sensible realm in terms of both length and total guarantee. Upon sifting through some other recent contracts, it’s not hard to see how the sides landed where they did.

Infield Notes: Machado, Realmuto, LeMahieu, Merrifield, Hernandez, Arenado

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Superstar free agent Manny Machado will not meet with teams in Las Vegas, it seems, preferring instead to visit suitors at their home parks, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). That would seem to suggest that his market won’t take off over the week to come, though surely there’ll be relevant developments. If Machado is indeed plotting a course of courtship that will take place over the coming weeks, then perhaps there’s more room for earlier developments in other segments of the infield market …

  • Behind the dish, the Marlins’ asking price on J.T. Realmuto may be creeping back down to more realistic levels, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. The organization has long been said to be asking for an enormous return in exchange for two seasons of the game’s best backstop, which truthfully isn’t an unreasonable starting point. Still, as Sherman notes, the club will ultimately likely be forced to take what the offer will give. For the Mets, pursuit of Realmuto is still seen “as a long shot,” Sherman adds on Twitter. And the Phillies are presently focused on other pursuits, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter), such that they haven’t engaged with their division rivals in Miami regarding Realmuto in a few weeks’ time.
  • The Athletics have reached out to second baseman DJ LeMahieu as they continue to explore the market for second basemen, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. That’s not an indication that the Oakland org is out on Jed Lowrie, so much as the latest sign that a reunion is anything but inevitable with both parties seeing other people. LeMahieu himself likely isn’t the only alternative being considered, Slusser notes; she goes on to explore some of the other opportunities that could be pondered by the A’s brass.
  • In a boon to free agents and teams with potential trade chips at second base, Royals GM Dayton Moore tells MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (Twitter link) that he is not getting as many questions of late about Whit Merrifield. That’s not because of a lack of interest, though, so much as the fact that the Royals have “pretty much made it clear” they will hold onto the late-blooming star. Merrifield will not even be eligible for arbitration until 2020, though he’ll turn thirty before the start of the 2019 season. From an outside perspective, this seems an ideal time to market a player who’d draw wide interest given his excellent recent production, defensive flexibility, and cheap price tag. But the Kansas City org seems determined to try to build around some of its preexisting roster assets.
  • The Phillies are not finding initial success at generating interest in second baseman Cesar Hernandez, according to Jayson Stark of The Athletic (Twitter link). With a robust slate of free agents at the position and a seemingly increasing list of available trade candidates, there’s some imbalance between the supply and demand. Hernandez, 28, has been a fairly steady performer, but he did fall off a bit with the bat last year and is increasingly expensive at a projected $8.9MM arb salary in his second to last run through the process.
  • Rockies GM Jeff Bridich discussed his team’s long-term relationship possibilities with third baseman Nolan Arenado in an inteview on MLB Network (h/t Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, Twitter links). Bridich says the club can afford to carry a $200MM+ promise to Arenado, citing a “responsible growth” plan for payroll. Of course, that number may only be scratching the surface of what Arenado could command in a hypothetical post-2019 free agency, so it’s far from clear just yet whether the club will be both willing and able to line up on a new deal to keep him from the open market. Otherwise, unsurprisingly, Bridich acknowledged that the Rox are interested in improving not only in the outfield but also at first base to boost a sagging offense.

AL Notes: Royals, Astros, Bauer

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In light of yesterday’s Yan Gomes trade, those teams still in need of a backstop for 2019 will be surveying the market with renewed urgency. One guy not likely to be on the move is Salvador Perez. The story has not changed for Salvy and the Royals, whose price for Perez is “so exorbitant no team would meet it,” per the Athletic’s Rustin Dodd (subscription link). While teams around the league would certainly check in on Perez were he to become available, it is unlikely anyone values him as highly as the Royals. The 28-year-old catcher is owed $36MM through 2021 and hasn’t had an OBP over .300 since 2013. His power output has remained consistent, however, and his merits extend behind the field of play, as he is a key presence both for players and for fans, as a leader in the clubhouse and as the one of the last core position players from back-to-back American League pennants. More from the Royals and the rest of the American League…

  • As for other Royals targets, Whit Merrifield is a slightly more achievable trade target, but given his four years of team control, the Royals are unlikely to part with their second baseman either. Lefty Danny Duffy can likely be had, but given his down year (4.88 ERA, 4.1 BB/9) and the over $45MM still on his deal, the Royals are better off keeping him and letting him restore some value in 2019. A quiet offseason looms for the Royals and GM Dayton Moore, who has said previously he expects Kansas City will be better-positioned to be aggressive in the market by 2021.
  • The Astros tendered contracts to ten players before yesterday’s deadline, most of whom were fairly safe bets to return to Houston. Outfielder Jake Marisnick was one on-the-bubble candidate, but he returns for a third season of arbitration eligibility in Houston. Marisnick has struggled at the dish, carrying a career .226/.278/.374 line into 2019, but he is an elite defensive center fielder, a valuable asset for the Astros, who never seem wholly comfortable leaving George Springer full-time in center. Marisnick does have one option remaining*, so Houston can send him down to Triple A without exposing him to waivers. The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan (subscription link) also notes that fellow benchmates Tyler White and Tony Kemp are without options, limiting flexibility for GM Jeff Luhnow. None of the three would net much of a return on the trade market on their own, though all three are cheap and useful enough to be included as a complimentary piece to a larger deal. The Astros do have options in the minor leagues should they deal Marisnick, most notably Myles Straw, who could replace Marisnick as the speed and defense option in center off the bench.
  • Both Kaplan and Fancred’s Jon Heyman suggest the Astros are looking for a primary catching option to top the depth chart ahead of Max Stassi. The Marlins J.T. Realmuto is the dream get, but Houston has thus-far refused to surrender star pitching prospect Forrest Whitley. Heyman notes that they may be willing to part with outfielder Kyle Tucker, a likely must-have for Miami in any package for Realmuto.
  • Heyman also notes that in Cleveland, though most of the trade noise has focused on Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer is actually the most likely of the three to be shipped out. This makes sense with the recent rumblings of extension talks with Carrasco, though there’s nothing close as of yet regarding Bauer. The Indians would love to keep him, but of the three, Bauer’s arbitration eligibility makes him more fiscally volatile than either of Carrasco or Kluber, who are under multi-year contracts. The perfect trade package for the Indians would probably include controllable pieces to augment what they already have in either the outfield or the bullpen, two areas in need of securing this offseason.

*Original post incorrectly listed Marisnick as having no options remaining (in referencing the Kaplan piece), but he does in fact have one option year left.

AL Notes: Red Sox, Indians, Merrifield, ChiSox

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As the Red Sox gear up to defend their 2018 World Series championship, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes joined WEEI’s Rob Bradford on this week’s episode of the Bradfo Sho. Tim and Rob discuss the recent Top 50 free agent list published here at MLBTR, with a specific focus on a number of Red Sox free agents (Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz, Joe Kelly) and a quick look ahead to the 2019-20 offseason as well. Once you’re finished listening to that, here are a few notes from around the American League…

  • Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today and briefly touched on the recent suggestions that his club would entertain the possibility of dealing a veteran such as Corey Kluber (Twitter link, with audio). Antonetti downplayed the possibility and emphasized that Cleveland is in a good spot in the sense that the roster is rife with players whom other teams covet — Kluber included. While that basic fact leads to many discussions, Antonetti said on multiple occasions that he feels the Indians are in a “good spot” heading into 2019 and didn’t give any real inkling that there’s pressure to reduce payroll. That said, it’s worth pushing back a bit to note that Cleveland projects to a record $145.5MM payroll next season despite a clear dearth of established outfield options and a questionable bullpen mix, among other needs. Finding a taker for some or all of the remaining $17.5MM on Jason Kipnis’ contract would go a long way toward alleviating some of those financial constraints, but the club will surely consider other avenues as well.
  • Matthew Trueblood of Baseball Prospectus takes an interesting look at Whit Merrifield’s offensive profile, noting that while the Royals’ unsung star doesn’t rate especially well in terms of Statcast metrics like average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, some of his shortcomings can arguably be attributed to the pitfalls of averages and extremes. Merrifield ranked well when looking at incidents of a 95+ mph batted ball with a launch angle between 10 and 30 degrees, and when adding plate appearances that resulted in walks to the equation, he ranked more than 200 places higher than he did in bottom-line average exit velocity. It’s a very intriguing read on one of the game’s most underrated players and a player who could likely fetch a fortune on the trade market. Of course, both Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star and Rustin Dodd of The Athletic have each recently penned lengthy examinations on why the Royals aren’t likely to trade Merrifield this winter, even though they look unlikely to contend in a weak AL Central division in the near future.
  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke at length with James Fegan of The Athletic about the organization’s philosophy on pitch framing. Hahn suggested that the team believes it easier to improve a catcher’s framing than his offensive capabilities, noting that Tyler Flowers went from a bat-first prospect to an elite framer during his time with the organization. Fegan explores how that belief led the team to sign Welington Castillo last offseason, the multiple factors that derailed Castillo’s defensive ratings in ’18 and Omar Narvaez’s progress at the plate but continued defensive issues.

AL Notes: Altuve, Merrifield, Brantley, Gray

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Jose Altuve provided an update on his rehabilitation from knee surgery, telling MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that he’s “not doing a lot” in the early stages of his recovery process, though “the only thing they told me is we’re going to be 120 percent for the first day of Spring Training, and that’s what really matters.”  Altuve underwent the procedure shortly after the Astros were eliminated from the ALCS, after playing through the injury for much of the second half of the season.  More will be known later in Altuve’s rehab process, though for now, it doesn’t seem like the surgery will keep Altuve from being ready to go for next season.

Here’s more from around the American League…

  • Whit Merrifield is arguably the Royals’ biggest trade chip, though the team’s lack of interest in dealing him is indicative of GM Dayton Moore’s unique team-building process, Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes.  On paper, a player who turns 30 in January doesn’t have much long-term value to a Royals team that has 2021 as its internal start date to once again be competitive.  Moore, however, has spoken openly about how disappointing the 2018 season was for the Royals, and he has been hesitant to enter into a full rebuild.  As Mellinger puts it, “holding onto Merrifield serves several purposes simultaneously: projects hope and confidence to players and fans, helps maintain culture of professionalism in the clubhouse, creates the best possible team for 2019, provides time to see what might be needed in a few years, and retains the ability to trade a presumably still valuable asset next summer or winter.”
  • “There is nearly a zero chance Michael Brantley will return to the” Indians in 2019, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes.  A reunion between the two sides seemed pretty unlikely, as Brantley’s strong 2018 season has put him in line for a lucrative free agent contract.  This made him an imperfect fit to return to the Tribe’s outfield, as Cleveland may be exploring ways to cut some veterans from the payroll while still looking to contend again next season.
  • Three evaluators from rival teams shared their thoughts on Sonny Gray with George A. King III of the New York Post, noting that the Yankees right-hander still has some solid trade value despite a rough season in the Bronx.  “I think he [has value] because with the way starting pitching is right now, you look at him as a reclamation project.  There has to be value with what starting pitching has become,” one evaluator for an AL rival said.  Between Gray’s good numbers away from Yankee Stadium, his past track record, youth, and one remaining year of arbitration control (at a $9.1MM salary, as projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz), it isn’t surprising that at least five teams have reportedly called the Yankees about Gray’s services.

GM Dayton Moore Says Royals Will Not Trade Whit Merrifield

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Whit Merrifield’s name has been bandied about the rumor circuit dating back to the offseason, when it became clear that the Royals were embarking on a rebuilding course. General manager Dayton Moore made clear today, however, that one of his more appealing potential trade chips will be staying put this summer. Speaking to Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), Moore plainly stated that the second baseman/center fielder “certainly won’t be traded at the deadline.”

While it’s not a surprise that the Royals are reluctant to part with Merrifield, who can be controlled for another four years beyond the 2018 season, it’s also somewhat out of the ordinary for a general manager to so emphatically and publicly declare that a player will be staying put. Moore didn’t rule out an eventual trade of Merrifield down the line — be it in the offseason or at a later date — but for the time being made clear that, “We need him in our city and on our team.”

Perhaps it’s not entirely a coincidence that Moore publicized his stance on Merrifield on the same day in which two major rental infielders were on the move. With the market seemingly cresting at an unusually early point in time, it could be that the Kansas City organization believes it has a firm sense of the true level of interest in Merrifield. Moore evidently feels sure the club isn’t going to get an offer truly worth considering over the next several days.

Moore’s assertion is also interesting when viewed alongside recent comments Merrifield made in an interview with The Athletic’s Rustin Dodd (subscription required). Merrified said he not only hoped to avoid being traded but prefers to sign a long-term deal with the Royals, even as they look like a clear non-contender for at least a couple of seasons. Whether there’s a middle ground for the two sides to find remains to be seen, of course, and Merrifield is hardly a typical extension candidate. While he’ll only have two years of service time this offseason and won’t be arbitration-eligible until after the 2019 season, Merrifield didn’t break into the Majors until he was already 27 years of age and will turn 30 this winter.

The Royals, then, already control Merrifield through his age-33 season as it is, thus reducing the team’s cause to sign him to a long-term pact. Any deal that spans beyond his current club control would stretch into Merrifield’s age-34 season, and it’d be more than understandable if the Royals were hesitant to guarantee him a notable salary at that age — at least this far in advance. Speculatively, perhaps the two sides could come to terms on a deal that’d buy out Merrifield’s three arbitration seasons while also giving the team control over a would-be free-agent season via a club option, though there’s been no indication that such a deal has even been kicked around. (MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explored the potential merit of an agreement back in March.)

Regardless of whether talks take place, and how they turn out, it seems Merrifield will at least finish out the season in Kansas City. And it appears the same holds true of starter Danny Duffy. There’s certainly an argument to be made that this summer represents an opportune moment to deal Merrifield. In addition to his appealing contract situation, he is a versatile defender, an outstanding baserunner, and (thus far in 2018) a 120 wRC+ hitter. Surely, that package of attributes would bring back a significant return that might outweigh Merrifield’s value to this particular organization, especially given his age. But it could be that we’re seeing the formation of an attempt at a relatively quick K.C. rebound. After all, the club just wrapped up a draft that focused heavily on college hurlers. Trade talks could be revisited this winter, to be sure, but the decision to pull Merrifield off the deadline market is the latest indication that the Royals won’t fully tear down their roster.

Trade Rumors: Abreu, Brewers, BoSox, Twins, Royals, Dodgers, Brach, Treinen

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As an established veteran on a cellar-dwelling team, White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu has come up often as a speculative trade candidate, but the club’s “strongly inclined” to retain him, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. The 31-year-old hasn’t exactly boosted his trade value this season, having hit a career-worst .250/.312/.435 (101 wRC+, compared to 139 from 2014-17) and accounted for a replacement-level WAR across 407 plate appearances. Regardless of whether the White Sox keep Abreu, he’s slated to go through arbitration once more over the winter. In the meantime, he’s on a $13MM salary this season.

More trade-related items as the countdown to the July 31 deadline continues…

  • The Brewers’ interest in Royals second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield has been known for a while, and Robert Murray of The Athletic (subscription required) explores the possibility of Milwaukee acquiring him. The Brewers haven’t pursued Merrifield as aggressively as they did during the winter, according to Murray, who hears he’d be rather expensive to pry out of Kansas City. Landing Merrifield would require “three higher-end prospects, at least,” an executive told Murray. Milwaukee happens to have a quality farm system, though it’s unlikely to trade its best prospect – second baseman Keston Hiura – suggests Murray, who goes on to run down farmhands the team could deal for Merrifield. The 29-year-old Merrifield has upped his stock during a terrific season in which he has hit .305/.375/.429 with five home runs and 17 steals through 412 PAs. Adding to his appeal, Merrifield’s on a near-minimum salary this season and won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 campaign.
  • The Red Sox sent a high-level executive, senior vice president of baseball operations Frank Wren, to scout the Royals–Twins game on Friday, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. It’s unclear which players Wren focused on, though it’s worth pointing out that Boston has shown reported interest in both Merrifield and Royals teammate Mike Moustakas. And with the Twins likely to sell at the deadline, Buster Olney of ESPN doesn’t rule out the Red Sox pursuing second baseman Brian Dozier.
  • Along with Baltimore’s closer, Zach Britton, the reliever-needy Dodgers are interested in Orioles setup man Brad Brach, according to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. The Dodgers have also scouted the Marlins and Rays and “monitored” Athletics closer Blake Treinen, Shaikin adds, though it seems improbable he’ll go anywhere with the A’s making a major push for a playoff spot. Conversely, as a pending free agent on a rebuilding team, the 32-year-old Brach is a good bet to end up in another uniform in the coming weeks. The problem for Baltimore is that Brach is in the midst of his least effective season in a while, with a 4.34 ERA/3.61 FIP and a 4.34 BB/9 in 37 1/3 innings. On the positive side, Brach has struck out upward of nine hitters per nine and generated swinging strikes at a solid clip (13.2 percent).

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