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Whit Merrifield

GM Dayton Moore Says Royals Will Not Trade Whit Merrifield

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Whit Merrifield’s name has been bandied about the rumor circuit dating back to the offseason, when it became clear that the Royals were embarking on a rebuilding course. General manager Dayton Moore made clear today, however, that one of his more appealing potential trade chips will be staying put this summer. Speaking to Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), Moore plainly stated that the second baseman/center fielder “certainly won’t be traded at the deadline.”

While it’s not a surprise that the Royals are reluctant to part with Merrifield, who can be controlled for another four years beyond the 2018 season, it’s also somewhat out of the ordinary for a general manager to so emphatically and publicly declare that a player will be staying put. Moore didn’t rule out an eventual trade of Merrifield down the line — be it in the offseason or at a later date — but for the time being made clear that, “We need him in our city and on our team.”

Perhaps it’s not entirely a coincidence that Moore publicized his stance on Merrifield on the same day in which two major rental infielders were on the move. With the market seemingly cresting at an unusually early point in time, it could be that the Kansas City organization believes it has a firm sense of the true level of interest in Merrifield. Moore evidently feels sure the club isn’t going to get an offer truly worth considering over the next several days.

Moore’s assertion is also interesting when viewed alongside recent comments Merrifield made in an interview with The Athletic’s Rustin Dodd (subscription required). Merrified said he not only hoped to avoid being traded but prefers to sign a long-term deal with the Royals, even as they look like a clear non-contender for at least a couple of seasons. Whether there’s a middle ground for the two sides to find remains to be seen, of course, and Merrifield is hardly a typical extension candidate. While he’ll only have two years of service time this offseason and won’t be arbitration-eligible until after the 2019 season, Merrifield didn’t break into the Majors until he was already 27 years of age and will turn 30 this winter.

The Royals, then, already control Merrifield through his age-33 season as it is, thus reducing the team’s cause to sign him to a long-term pact. Any deal that spans beyond his current club control would stretch into Merrifield’s age-34 season, and it’d be more than understandable if the Royals were hesitant to guarantee him a notable salary at that age — at least this far in advance. Speculatively, perhaps the two sides could come to terms on a deal that’d buy out Merrifield’s three arbitration seasons while also giving the team control over a would-be free-agent season via a club option, though there’s been no indication that such a deal has even been kicked around. (MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explored the potential merit of an agreement back in March.)

Regardless of whether talks take place, and how they turn out, it seems Merrifield will at least finish out the season in Kansas City. And it appears the same holds true of starter Danny Duffy. There’s certainly an argument to be made that this summer represents an opportune moment to deal Merrifield. In addition to his appealing contract situation, he is a versatile defender, an outstanding baserunner, and (thus far in 2018) a 120 wRC+ hitter. Surely, that package of attributes would bring back a significant return that might outweigh Merrifield’s value to this particular organization, especially given his age. But it could be that we’re seeing the formation of an attempt at a relatively quick K.C. rebound. After all, the club just wrapped up a draft that focused heavily on college hurlers. Trade talks could be revisited this winter, to be sure, but the decision to pull Merrifield off the deadline market is the latest indication that the Royals won’t fully tear down their roster.

Trade Rumors: Abreu, Brewers, BoSox, Twins, Royals, Dodgers, Brach, Treinen

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As an established veteran on a cellar-dwelling team, White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu has come up often as a speculative trade candidate, but the club’s “strongly inclined” to retain him, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. The 31-year-old hasn’t exactly boosted his trade value this season, having hit a career-worst .250/.312/.435 (101 wRC+, compared to 139 from 2014-17) and accounted for a replacement-level WAR across 407 plate appearances. Regardless of whether the White Sox keep Abreu, he’s slated to go through arbitration once more over the winter. In the meantime, he’s on a $13MM salary this season.

More trade-related items as the countdown to the July 31 deadline continues…

  • The Brewers’ interest in Royals second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield has been known for a while, and Robert Murray of The Athletic (subscription required) explores the possibility of Milwaukee acquiring him. The Brewers haven’t pursued Merrifield as aggressively as they did during the winter, according to Murray, who hears he’d be rather expensive to pry out of Kansas City. Landing Merrifield would require “three higher-end prospects, at least,” an executive told Murray. Milwaukee happens to have a quality farm system, though it’s unlikely to trade its best prospect – second baseman Keston Hiura – suggests Murray, who goes on to run down farmhands the team could deal for Merrifield. The 29-year-old Merrifield has upped his stock during a terrific season in which he has hit .305/.375/.429 with five home runs and 17 steals through 412 PAs. Adding to his appeal, Merrifield’s on a near-minimum salary this season and won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 campaign.
  • The Red Sox sent a high-level executive, senior vice president of baseball operations Frank Wren, to scout the Royals–Twins game on Friday, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. It’s unclear which players Wren focused on, though it’s worth pointing out that Boston has shown reported interest in both Merrifield and Royals teammate Mike Moustakas. And with the Twins likely to sell at the deadline, Buster Olney of ESPN doesn’t rule out the Red Sox pursuing second baseman Brian Dozier.
  • Along with Baltimore’s closer, Zach Britton, the reliever-needy Dodgers are interested in Orioles setup man Brad Brach, according to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. The Dodgers have also scouted the Marlins and Rays and “monitored” Athletics closer Blake Treinen, Shaikin adds, though it seems improbable he’ll go anywhere with the A’s making a major push for a playoff spot. Conversely, as a pending free agent on a rebuilding team, the 32-year-old Brach is a good bet to end up in another uniform in the coming weeks. The problem for Baltimore is that Brach is in the midst of his least effective season in a while, with a 4.34 ERA/3.61 FIP and a 4.34 BB/9 in 37 1/3 innings. On the positive side, Brach has struck out upward of nine hitters per nine and generated swinging strikes at a solid clip (13.2 percent).

Trade Chatter: Britton, Merrifield, Mets, Beltre, Braves

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Zach Britton’s most recent outing was an encouraging one for scouts, writes Jon Heyman of Fancred in his latest notes column. One scout tells Heyman that the Orioles’ closer was finally beginning to look like himself in a recent save against the Yankees. Heyman notes that Britton was throwing 96-98 mph, although data from both Fangraphs and Brooks Baseball isn’t quite as bullish as that scout’s radar gun was. Certainly, though, Britton’s past few outings have been encouraging. In five scoreless frames, he’s averaged a slightly improved 95 mph on his heater and posted a strong 66.7 percent grounder rate with four strikeouts against one walk. Britton has thrown a first-pitch strike to just 41 percent of the hitters he’s faced in that time, and his ground-ball rate, velocity and swinging-strike rate are all still shy of his peak levels. Nonetheless, he’s certainly trending in the right direction — a welcome sight for the Orioles. Heyman notes that the Astros are believed to once again have interest in Britton after the Orioles backed out of a trade involving him last season, which would’ve sent Colin Moran and a Double-A outfielder to Baltimore.

Some more Thursday night trade rumblings…

  • Heyman also notes that he’s heard the Red Sox mentioned in connection with Royals second baseman Whit Merrifield. The 29-year-old has reportedly drawn interest from the Phillies and from the Brewers already, and the Sox would be a logical addition to that market, depending on the status of Dustin Pedroia. As Heyman notes, Merrifield is particularly enticing for the Sox given his minimal salary and their proximity to the top tier of luxury tax penalization. He’s shown, too, that he can play a number of positions, which would make him ideal for a utility role if the Sox get everyone healthy. That said, there’s no characterization of particularly strong interest in the report, the Sox have a thin farm system, and the Royals are under no urgency to trade Merrifield, who is controlled through 2022. Bullpen help has been rumored to be Boston’s primary focus on the trade market so far.
  • One more from Heyman, who notes that the Mets aren’t especially anxious to listen to offers on lefty Steven Matz. New York will certainly entertain offers on its entire roster, as they’re at least listening on Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, but it sounds like Matz is closer to that pair than to the more available Zack Wheeler. The report also indicates that offers for Asdrubal Cabrera, to this point, have been underwhelming and that the Mets have actually received some inquiries about Jose Bautista, who was hitting .230/.389/.425 in 144 PAs for the Mets before homering in tonight’s contest.
  • Sticking with the Mets, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the team actually hasn’t received much in the way of inquiries on eiher deGrom or Syndergaard as of late (Twitter link). The general sense that the asking price would be overwhelming could be a factor; as Puma terms it, some teams may have sticker shock “without even seeing the sticker.” Puma also tweets, though, that the Mets are “confident” they’ll find a trade partner for Cabrera. That, he adds, would open a spot for 26-year-old Jeff McNeil — a potentially late-blooming prospect who has batted a combined .346/.417/.634 with 18 homers in 336 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A.
  • Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News takes a look at the situation in which the Rangers find themselves with Adrian Beltre. The third baseman has full no-trade rights and has not yet given indication about whether he’d prefer to play out the season with a contender, though he has said he wants to play with the Rangers again in 2019. “His value to the organization is above how we would normally consider trade acquisitions,” GM Jo Daniels tells Grant. “For us to consider anything, it’s got to be mutually beneficial, good for all parties involved.” Beltre, 39, hasn’t shown much pop but is hitting .288/.349/.401 on the season. He’s been DHing more of late in an effort to keep his legs healthy.
  • Though the Braves have a number of wants on the trade market — specifically upgrades to the pitching staff — they’re reluctant to trade any prospects of note for a rental piece, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic within his latest notes column (subscription required). Rosenthal also notes that a right-handed-hitting center field option to pair with Ender Inciarte would be appealing, though Inciarte’s glovework is so good that it lessens the blow of his 2018 struggles against lefties.

Whit Merrifield Says He Hopes For Long-Term Deal With Royals

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Royals utilityman extraordinaire Whit Merrifield has been a bright spot on a struggling roster, playing his way into trade consideration. If he has his way, though, he’ll remain with the Kansas City organization on a long-term deal, Rustin Dodd of The Athletic reports (subscription link).

Merrifield is an unusual player. Not only is he a late bloomer — the 29-year-old entered the current season with just 1.101 years on his service clock — but he has succeeded thus far in the majors with a still-evolving profile.

Last year, he hit a surprising 19 home runs but registered only a .324 on-base percentage even with a lofty .288 batting average. Thus far in 2018, the power is down (five home runs, .427 SLG, .125 ISO) but Merrifield sports a .369 OBP. He has already drawn more walks (32) than he did in nearly twice the plate appearances in 2017 (29).

Meanwhile, Merrifield has diversified his game on the defensive side. He has continued to grade out as a quality fielder at second. But he’s also holding his own in the outfield, with positive marks on his 102 innings in center field. Of course, Merrifield remains one of the game’s better baserunners, too.

Clearly, the overall profile is rather compelling. I examined the case for a long-term arrangement with Merrifield earlier this year and he has only continued to impress. Despite the fact that the Royals are really only just now launching a rebuilding effort,  the team is hoping it’ll be a relatively quick turnaround, as evidenced by their prioritization of college arms in the recent amateur draft.

If there’s a compelling case to be made for K.C. to do a deal, it’s that locking up Merrifield would not only ensconce him as part of a new roster core, but could also provide an opportunity to realize significant value. The control rights leave the team with leverage. And it certainly seems as if he’s keen to sign on for the long run.

Indeed, per Dodd, Merrifield and his representatives sought to get talks started on an extension last winter. While that didn’t lead anywhere, he expressed an interest in revisiting talks — after the current season, at least. “Hopefully it’s something that could be possible down the road,” he says.

What’s interesting about this dynamic is that it offers a tantalizing and clear alternative to the Royals as the summer trade period gets underway in earnest. The possibility of an affordable, long-term arrangement will surely be weighed as part of the decisionmaking when offers come in the door.

Of course, the club already controls Merrifield for quite some time, and the limits of the arbitration process cap his potential earnings, so the possibility of a lengthier pact doesn’t drastically change the situation. But for an organization weighing how best to engineer a turnaround, and retain the goodwill it built with its fans over a multi-year run of contention, it’s a factor. The fact that Merrifield can play multiple positions makes it less likely that he’d get in the way of young talent, too.

All that being said, there ought to be some interesting possibilities on the trade front, too — whether at the deadline or in the ensuing offseason. Merrifield would fit quite nicely on quite a few contending rosters. His cheap remaining seasons of control will have plenty of appeal, even if the true upside is discounted a bit by his age and (to a lesser extent) lack of a lengthy MLB track record, particularly given that he’s shown aptitude in multiple places on the diamond.

Phillies Notes: Merrifield, Eickhoff, Int’l Scouting

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Here’s the latest from the City Of Brotherly Love…

  • The Phillies have interest in Royals utilityman Whit Merrifield, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports.  Merrifield has mostly played second base in K.C. this season, though he has also seen time at first base, center field, and right field, plus he’s seen time in left field and third base in past seasons.  As Morosi notes, this makes him an ideal fit on a Phillies team that values multi-position players.  The Royals have already begun trading veterans prior to the deadline, though Merrifield would command a noteworthy price tag since he’s under team control through the 2022 season.
  • Jerad Eickhoff experienced more numbness in his fingers during a throwing session, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports (Twitter link), and is undergo more tests to try and determine the problem.  Eickhoff’s last set of examinations “ruled out a lot of bad stuff” in the words of Phillies GM Matt Klentak, though it obviously isn’t a good sign that Eickhoff’s problems are continuing after another month.  Eickhoff has yet to pitch this season, initially beginning the DL due to a lat strain before his rehab was shut down by the numbness issues.
  • The Phillies have put a lot of focus on expanding their international scouting operations, including going beyond the usual set of countries to find players, The Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro writes (subscription required).  The piece includes a look at some of the international names in Philadelphia’s farm system, including Russian left-hander Anton Kuznetsov, New Zealander right-hander Kyle Glogoski, and Australian lefty Josh Tols.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Moustakas, Merrifield, Duffy, Fulmer, Drury

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The Cardinals have “renewed interest” in Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest notes column (subscription required).  It isn’t clear how seriously interested St. Louis is, however, and Rosenthal notes that adding Moustakas would lead to a crowded infield situation.  Matt Carpenter would have to be moved to either second base or first base, displacing either the light-hitting but defensively brilliant Kolten Wong, or the hard-hitting Jose Martinez and his sub-par first base glove.  One option could be to flip Martinez for some immediate help in another area, Rosenthal suggests, listing the Twins as a potential suitor for Martinez — Minnesota, of course, is a fringe contender at best right now, but Martinez would be a long-term piece at first base and DH.  On the other hand, Martinez has been perhaps the Cardinals’ best hitter this season and he is controllable through the 2022 season.  This is just one of many scenarios that could play out involving these players, of course, as the Cards (like every front office in the game) is weighing dozens of potential scenarios as we approach the trade deadline.  St. Louis still seems to be in the planning stages, as Rosenthal writes that the Cards “have yet to engage seriously on any one player.”

Here are some more hot stove items from Rosenthal’s column…

  • The Brewers were interested in Royals second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield this past offseason and are once again inquiring on his services.  The late-blooming Merrifield has continued to establish himself as a solid everyday player this season, batting .284/.358/.401 over 339 PA, plus 16 steals in 20 chances.  Second base has been a problem spot for Milwaukee, and while the Brewers recently acquired Brad Miller as infield depth, Merrifield would represent a more solid upgrade at the keystone.  Though the Brewers could also need rotation help, Rosenthal reports that they haven’t discussed Danny Duffy as part of their talks with Kansas City.
  • Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer is drawing a lot of interest from not just contenders like the Phillies, Dodgers and Yankees, but also from rebuilding teams like the Padres.  Clearly Fulmer would be a fit for a lot of teams considering both his ability and his years of control; he isn’t arbitration-eligible until this winter, and he has four years of arbitration coming as a Super Two player.  Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman wrote earlier this week that it could be unlikely that Fulmer is actually dealt, as Detroit has naturally put a big price tag on the righty in trade talks.  San Diego is deep in prospects, however, so the Friars could be one of the few teams who wouldn’t immediately balk at the Tigers’ demands.
  • Brandon Drury’s return to the Yankees came with some service time implications, as Rosenthal notes that New York could have gained an extra year of control over the utilityman by keeping him in the minors until Sunday.  It’s possible Drury could still be demoted again at some point this season, and if so, he wouldn’t qualify for free agency until after the 2022 season.  This could potentially make Drury more valuable to other teams in trade talks, as the Yankees are deep in long-term infield options and might see Drury as expendable.

Latest On Mariners’ Plans At Second Base

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In his latest piece for The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal suggests that the suspension of second baseman Robinson Cano has implications that could ripple beyond the 2018 season. Dee Gordon is expected to move from center field to second base in the interim, but could remain there even when Cano comes back, according to Rosenthal. At 35, Cano would soon be tabbed for at least part-time DH duties under normal circumstances. However, one thing that’s reportedly been staving off that possibility thus far is Cano’s goal to break Jeff Kent’s all-time record of 377 homers by a second baseman (he’s 73 bombs shy), while yet another factor is the presence of Nelson Cruz in the team’s full-time designated hitter role.

Both of those factors may not be of such significant impact next season, Rosenthal writes. Cruz has the potential to depart as a free agent after 2018, and the Mariners may not be so inclined to give Cano room in dictating his position following his violation of MLB’s Joint Drug Program. Cano, as readers probably know by now, received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a diuretic used to mask another performance-enhancing drug. That suspension will also prevent him from taking part in the postseason, which is a significant blow to a contending Mariners club.

Ideally, then, the Mariners’ objective should be to find a full-time center fielder or left fielder they can retain for multiple seasons, says Rosenthal. Such a player would effectively lock Gordon into second base for the foreseeable future, while pushing the aging Cano into a first base/designated hitter role in the latter years of his contract. Rosenthal lists Adam Duvall as a possible target for Seattle, but adds the disclaimer that the club has one of the worst farm systems in baseball and might have a difficult time acquiring the young left-fielder from Cincinnati.

On the other hand, as Bob Dutton of klay1180.com points out, it might be in the Mariners’ interests as a contender to keep Gordon in center field for the time being, unless the team can find a way to keep him at second even after Cano returns this season; a scenario that seems highly implausible with the presence of Cruz and Ryon Healy on the roster. Still, it’s hard to tell what the Mariners will do after half a season’s worth of games. From my perspective, it’s worth noting that the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline will have already come and gone by the time Cano is eligible to take the field again.

Following a series of disclaimers (including that guessing GM Jerry Dipoto’s potential targets is a “fool’s game”), Dutton lists some players who might be available at this year’s deadline, according to his sources. One obvious name is Adam Jones, who’s in the final year of his contract with an Orioles club that’s off to a disastrous 14-30 start. Other center fielders mentioned in Dutton’s blog entry include Billy Hamilton, Jon Jay and Denard Span, though on the surface none of those additions would seem worthy of forcing Cano into a role with reduced playing time.

More interesting is the pair of second baseman mentioned by Dutton. Scooter Gennett looks primed to repeat the surprise power numbers he put up with Cincinnati last season, and is controllable through 2019. Whit Merrifield, who can also play in the outfield, would be a longer-term piece and undoubtedly more difficult to acquire. In fact, I’d add that either target seems far fetched considering the Mariners’ lack of impact talent in the minor leagues.

Whatever the situation, it will certainly be interesting to see how Cano and the Mariners are impacted in 2018 and beyond. The club’s interest in contending this year and questions surrounding the roles of Gordon and Cano moving forward create an interesting juxtaposition, and it will be fascinating to watch Dipoto and co. attempt to solve the puzzle.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Realmuto, Moustakas, Machado, Donaldson

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The Mets made repeated inquiries on Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto during the offseason, says Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic in a video tweet. They also asked the Marlins about Starlin Castro. However, at that point in the winter, the club had just traded Christian Yelich to the Brewers, and they had also unloaded the contracts of Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna; they weren’t looking to cut any more salary at that moment in time. While the Mets are prepared to roll with Tomas Nido and Jose Lobaton for now, Rosenthal suggests that the club could attempt to revisit Realmuto discussions at some point.

More from Rosenthal…

  • Although it’s early, Rosenthal suggests that Mike Moustakas looks like a hot trade candidate, citing his physical condition and low salary as selling points for the Royals third baseman. According to GM Dayton Moore, Moustakas is “running as well as he ever has.” Rosenthal figures that Kansas city will be among the most active trade deadline sellers in July, and could also dangle southpaw Danny Duffy, second baseman Whit Merrifield and closer Kelvin Herrera.
  • The shifting power structure of Orioles ownership might affect the way the club approaches a potential Manny Machado trade, should they end up willing to deal him. Peter Angelos was always opposed to making trades with the division-rival Yankees, but the younger Angelos’ might not place such a restriction on the concept. There are a number of other reasons to throw cold water on the idea of a Machado-to-Yankees swap, as Rosenthal notes, such as the presence of Brandon Drury and the Yankees’ possible focus on pitching. Still, the idea seems more plausible now that Peter Angelos’ sons are more active in the running of the club.
  • One rival executive estimates that there are “tens of millions” of dollars riding on the health of Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson’s shoulder. Rosenthal posits that the former AL MVP will be much less valuable as a free agent if there are questions surrounding his ability to play third base; much of his value lies in his defensive prowess. Being viewed as a first base/DH type for the bulk of his remaining career could eliminate some NL teams as suitors, and it doesn’t help that Donaldson is about to turn 33.

Extension Candidate: Whit Merrifield

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The Royals front office is in an interesting spot as it attempts to engineer a soft landing after multiple seasons of contention from a roster whose core is no longer fully intact. Despite the obvious challenges, GM Dayton Moore says he’s as optimistic as ever about the organization’s outlook.

Perhaps no single player embodies that hope and this team’s unique approach more than infielder Whit Merrifield, a late-bloomer who quietly became one of the team’s best players. Given their current stance, the Royals shouldn’t be opposed to considering long-term deals with key players. But is Merrifield a worthwhile target?

As is often the case for teams that push for a World Series in — in this case, successfully — there’s a dent to the future outlook. That frequently shows up in the form of lost prospects, missed opportunities to swap veterans for younger talent, and ongoing commitments to expensive, older veterans. In this case, Alex Gordon and Ian Kennedy stand out as underperforming contracts.

At the same time, the Kansas City organization does have some valuable deals on the books — namely, the extensions agreed to with lefty Danny Duffy and catcher Salvador Perez. There’s still potential for those agreements to sour, but at present they seem to represent appealing commitments. And they both run through 2021. It’s worth remembering, too, that the club pursued star first baseman Eric Hosmer. Though it’s clear the Royals will be increasingly attentive to drawing down salary commitments, they did not force deals for players such as Duffy, Perez, or even pending free-agent closer Kelvin Herrera this winter. While Kansas City did give up talent to move some salaries (see here and here), those swaps are nothing like the full-throated efforts we’ve seen some other clubs take after a downturn in fortunes.

Unlike some small-market organizations that find themselves in this general situation, then, the Royals do not appear to be pursuing a strip-down rebuild. The retention (to this point) of Herrera and the signing of Lucas Duda confirm that the club isn’t just punting in the hopes of securing favorable draft position. Trying to remain at least somewhat competitive while undergoing a roster transition comes with quite a different blend of risk and benefit from a “tanking” strategy — which brings us back around to Merrifield, who deserves some consideration as a potential extension target after compiling 3.9 rWAR and 3.1 fWAR in his first full MLB campaign.

In most cases, perhaps, a player who achieves that kind of value immediately upon reaching the majors would be a clear candidate for a long-term deal. Here, though, there’s no getting around the fact that Merrifield is already 29 years of age — older than Hosmer and just a smidge younger than Mike Moustakas. With just 1.101 years of MLB service to his credit, though, he won’t quality for arbitration until 2020 and can’t reach the open market until 2023, when he’ll be entering his age-34 season.

Given that they already control him until he’s 33, the Royals need not be in any rush to secure Merrifield for the long haul. At the same time, though, the club ought to have ample leverage, so perhaps we shouldn’t immediately dismiss the merits of exploring a deal. While picking up control over Merrifield’s earliest-possible free agent campaigns might be a nice feather in the cap, the potential value for the team lies mostly in locking in future salaries at an appealing rate while announcing the presence of a new core piece to go with Duffy and Perez.

Despite his late ascension to the majors, Merrifield showed good promise in a half-season of time in 2016, with decent hitting output along with high-end glovework and baserunning. Though he took a slight step back in the latter two areas on a rate basis last year, at least by the numbers we have to work with, Merrifield also took a step forward with the bat. His low walk rate (4.6% in 2017) means he’ll probably never be an OBP monster, but he made plenty of contact (14.0% strikeout rate), showed a sudden power outburst (19 home runs, .172 isolated slugging), and produced overall at about five percent better than league average. It doesn’t hurt that Merrifield can steal a bag, having recorded 34 swipes in his first full season in the big leagues.

There’s some risk here, to be sure. Merrifield needs to hit at a high average to maintain a palatable on-base percentage. And he’s no sure thing to keep up the power surge — he never maintained an ISO that high over a full minor-league season — though perhaps Merrifield is one of those players who has benefited from a bouncier baseball. As Eno Sarris of The Athletic recently explained (subscription link), history suggests that Merrifield likely won’t have more than a few more quality seasons before the aging curve catches him.

In the aggregate, though, there’s good reason to believe that Merrifield will at least continue to profile as an above-average regular for some time. His athleticism and background — he has plenty of professional time at second, third, and the corner outfield, and the team is trying him in center this spring — suggests he could move around the diamond as the team’s needs change, providing value even if he checks back into a reserve role.

Merrifield may not be a face-of-the-franchise type, but taking an opportunity to lock in value on a player of his ilk is just the kind of move that can pay dividends for an organization that is already thinking about how it will compile a winning roster in the near future. To be sure, it would be a somewhat novel contract to negotiate. While players with non-star profiles and equally thin track records (and service time tallies) have certainly agreed to terms in the past — e.g., Juan Lagares (4 years, $23MM) and pre-breakout Jose Altuve (4 years, $12.5MM) — they were significantly younger. Perhaps the Yan Gomes contract, a six-year, $23MM pact that included two options at the end, would be a closer fit, but even he was just 26 years of age at signing.

There are certainly some light shades of Ben Zobrist here, though it’s a stretch to draw any strong comparisons. As a quality player who can move around the diamond, Merrifield could be viewed as a much lesser version of the renowned utilityman, who commanded only a $18MM guarantee in an extension with the Rays back in 2010. Zobrist was 28 at the time but was already a Super Two. Of course, that deal was a ridiculous bargain; on the other hand, there’s nothing to suggest Merrifield will ever approach Zobrist in overall value.

In truth, the Zobrist pact is tough to use as a comp for any purposes because it was so unique. The same might hold for a hypothetical Merrifield extension. My own thought is that Merrifield’s age/service status ought to make him much more amenable to taking a discount on his anticipated future earnings while also leaving the Royals with less incentive to give value for the right to control any prospective free-agent campaigns than they would for a more youthful player. (To be clear, that’s all speculation based on my outside observation of the circumstances.) Perhaps, then, the sides could explore a contract that includes a relatively limited overall guarantee for most or all of Merrifield’s pre-arb and arb-eligible seasons, with a range of possible options scenarios to be considered.

At what price might this become attractive for the Royals? Merrifield is going to earn just over the league minimum for 2018 and 2019. His salary for the ensuing three campaigns will depend upon what he does in the meantime, of course, but there are some comps that give some idea of what Merrifield could earn if he continues playing at the same general level. Joe Panik just agreed to a $3.45MM first-year arb salary, for instance, while DJ LeMahieu started with $3.0MM and has taken down a total of $16.3MM in his three seasons of arbitration.

Even if we peg Merrifield’s anticipated earnings through 2022 in the realm of $16MM or so — give or take a few million – that doesn’t mean the Royals should be willing to spend that much on an extension. Pre-committing isn’t necessary unless there’s some benefit to the club, yet the rights to free-agent years won’t have that much value for an older, non-star performer. Perhaps the Royals would promise Merrifield something in the realm of his likely arb earnings if he agrees to very low prices on two option years. Or maybe the team will pursue a discount on the arb seasons if the contract includes an option or two at higher prices (such that they likely won’t be exercised unless Merrifield succeeds beyond expectations, in which case he’d be rewarded). The most interesting scenario, though, may be a deal that only locks the sides in through the first two seasons of arbitration while leaving team options for the third arb year, at a discounted rate, along with one or two would-be free-agent years. That might give the late bloomer the security he needs while affording the team an appropriate blend of protection and expected cost savings.

To reiterate: there’s no urgency here and likely not a huge amount of upside to be captured for K.C. But if this organization really does intend to remain competitive in the relatively near future while steadily building up a new core, it’ll require a whole lot of incremental moves that add value. Exploring a new deal with Merrifield offers just that sort of potential opportunity, but only in the right circumstances.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Central Notes: Sano, Merrifield, Mondesi, Napoli

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Major League Baseball conducted its interview with Miguel Sano today as part of its investigation into assault allegations that were brought forth against him back in December, report La Velle E. Neal III and Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Sano missed the Twins’ afternoon workouts today as he complied with the investigation and won’t be in the lineup for their evening game. As Neal and Miller note, the interview figures to be one of the league’s final steps in its investigation into the allegations against Sano. Once the investigation is complete, the results will be presented to MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, who will then determine whether any discipline is required for the Minnesota third baseman.

A bit more from the AL Central…

  • Royals second baseman Whit Merrifield got his first exposure to center field in roughly a half decade in yesterday’s Cactus League game, writes MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. The 29-year-old Merrifield played more than 600 innings of center in his first two years of pro ball but has been primarily playing infield in recent years. However, with Alcides Escobar back in the fold, the Royals will give Merrifield some looks in center field. If Merrifield proves capable in the outfield, he could fill that need while also potentially opening second base for prospect Adalberto Mondesi, who, it should be noted, will now be utilizing his middle name rather than his first name. Mondesi, who previously went by his first name, Raul, recently explained the decision to reporters (including Flanagan), noting that he’d long gone by his middle name before moving to pro ball. “Back home, everyone knows me by that,” said Mondesi, the son of former NL Rookie of the Year and All-Star Raul Mondesi.
  • While many Indians fans were happy to see Mike Napoli reunited with the organization earlier this morning when he agreed to a minor league deal, manager Terry Francona tempered expectations regarding Napoli’s chances of making the club (link via MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian). “He wanted a chance to be in a Major League camp,” said Francona. “There’s a decent chance we’re going to get him ready to have him go on another team and help beat us. Saying that, I think we all felt like he deserved it. He’s such a pro, so special to us.” Francona added that he was extremely honest and forthcoming with Napoli about the lack of immediate opportunity, although as Bastian notes, the well-respected and well-liked Napoli provides a nice depth option in the case of an injury. And, Josh Tomlin raved to Bastian about the team’s excitement over having Napoli in the clubhouse, even if it’s only for a short time.

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