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Royals GM Dayton Moore Discusses Managerial Search, Roster Needs

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Royals GM Dayton Moore held a brief chat with Jon Heyman and Josh Lewin on the Big Time Baseball Podcast (audio link). We’ll touch on some of the highlights here.

With long-tenured manager Ned Yost having retired at the end of the Royals’ season, finding his successor is among the most important tasks on Moore’s plate. As of now, though, the Royals are still “vetting candidates” for the job and “have yet to go through a formal interview” with anyone, according to Moore. It seems in an ideal world, the club will promote Yost’s replacement from within. Moore talked up Royals assistants Mike Matheny, Dale Sveum, Pedro Grifol and Vance Wilson, declaring that they’re “strong candidates.”

Matheny, who possesses by far the most managerial experience of any of the Royals’ possibilities, was at the helm of a Cardinals club that went 591-474 with four playoff berths and an NL pennant from 2012-18. Moore, cognizant of the success St. Louis had in the standings during that run, contends Matheny’s “an amazing leader” who “won every single year” with the franchise. Although Matheny received plenty of criticism throughout time with the Redbirds, Moore’s impressed that he was able to successfully transition from a long career as a big league catcher to that of a manager – all while taking over for Hall of Famer Tony La Russa.

Since last November, a few months after his in-season firing with the Cardinals, Matheny has been serving as a special advisor in Kansas City. He’s “done excellent work” in that capacity, per Moore, who revealed Matheny “has options” and has been “sought out” by other clubs (though it’ s unclear if that implies teams are interested in Matheny as a manager).

Whether the Royals tap Matheny or someone else for the role, that individual will be facing the grueling task of trying to get immediate results in the standings for KC. The Royals are coming off their second straight 100-loss season, though Moore & Co. nonetheless “feel good about our core group of young position players.” He specifically named third baseman Hunter Dozier, right fielder Jorge Soler, shortstop Adalberto Mondesi (“one of the best talents in the game; just needs to get more consistent) and second baseman Nicky Lopez as potential building blocks who have age on their side. With the exception of Soler, whose contract is more complex than most, all of those players come with a few seasons of affordable control. As of now, it’s unknown whether the Royals will try to extend Soler, who’s coming off an age-27 season in which he mashed 48 home runs.

As effective as Soler was in 2019, second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield still may be the centerpiece of the Royals’ cast of position players. Merrifield will turn 31 during the offseason, but having signed a team-friendly extension last winter, the rebuilding Royals aren’t under pressure to deal him. Moore has always resisted doing so despite vast interest from other clubs. Now, “nobody is untouchable,” and the Royals need to be “open-minded” until they know which opportunities could present themselves. However, Moore continues to regard Merrifield as a “special talent” and a “special person,” which suggests the club’s more than content to move ahead with the well-rounded All-Star.

While the Royals do have some gems among their position players, they don’t look as well off on the pitching side. The Royals’ hurlers posted the majors’ fourth-worst ERA (5.20) this year, and Brad Keller – a 2017 Rule 5 acquisition – was their lone starter to put up average or better production across a full season. With those struggles in mind, Moore acknowledged that the Royals “gotta do a better job of developing pitching, acquiring pitching.”

Looking ahead to 2020, the Royals will likely be in for another lean year. “We’ve got a ways to go,” said Moore, who didn’t offer a timeline on a possible return to contention. As you’d expect, though, the longtime exec indicated he and the franchise are bent on orchestrating a turnaround.

Royals Rumors: Merrifield, Diekman

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Royals utilityman Whit Merrifield is unsurprisingly drawing interest from contenders with the trade deadline just a few days away. The Cubs, Braves and Phillies are among the teams eyeing Merrifield, but it appears they’ll have to look elsewhere. The Royals are telling teams they’re not going to deal him, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports.

Even though the Royals are just 39-64 this season and will have trouble pushing for a playoff spot in the near future, the 30-year-old Merrifield has never looked like an especially realistic trade candidate. Royals general manager Dayton Moore hasn’t made it any secret he has an affinity for Merrifield, who he said in June is “one of the best players in all of baseball right now.” Moore also stated then it would take a “crazy” offer for Kansas City to move Merrifield, whom it signed to a four-year, $16.25MM extension in the offseason.

On a KC team with few major bright spots, Merrifield has continued his run as an eminently valuable performer this year. He has slashed .306/.357/.495 (122 wRC+) with 49 extra-base hits (28 doubles, 12 home runs, nine triples) and 15 steals on 23 attempts in 470 plate appearances. Merrifield has also chipped in 4 Defensive Runs Saved and a 1.3 Ultimate Zone Rating between second base and the outfield. The entire package has been worth 2.9 bWAR/2.7 fWAR. Between Merrifield’s affordability and his on-field excellence, there’s a case the rebuilding Royals should trade him – they’d surely net an exorbitant return – but it doesn’t look as if it’s going to happen.

Meanwhile, reliever Jake Diekman seems almost guaranteed to change uniforms by the end of the month. In addition to the already reported Phillies, Dodgers and Nationals, Diekman has drawn interest from the Cubs, Cardinals and Braves, per Morosi. Diekman, 32, is on a $2.75MM guarantee and has a $5.75MM mutual option for 2020. The hard-throwing left-hander has pitched to a pedestrian 4.75 ERA in 41 2/3 innings this season. But he has logged a far better 3.36 FIP with 13.61 K/9, 4.97 BB/9 and a 48.4 percent groundball rate.

Latest On Cubs’ Trade Deadline Focus

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The Cubs’ signing of Craig Kimbrel last month may have crossed one item off their trade deadline to-do list, but the NL Central division leaders aren’t necessarily sitting back. Manager Joe Maddon spoke openly over the weekend about the manner in which the team is missing the “consistent” and “professional” at-bats brought to the table by Ben Zobrist (link via Tom Musnick of the Chicago Sun-Times), and Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score reports that the Cubs are in the market for a veteran hitter to whom they can entrust leadoff duties.

Levine understandably pegs Kansas City’s Whit Merrifield as the ideal fit for the Cubs’ need but adds that the Royals have placed an enormous price on the 30-year-old, who signed an eminently affordable four-year, $16.25MM extension this past winter. The Kansas City front office would seek as many as three controllable, big-league-ready players in any trade involving Merrifield, per Levine. It stands to reason that virtually any contending team in baseball would want to get its hand on Merrifield, who is hitting .309/.361/.500 and vying for a second consecutive season in which he paces the league in hits. However, that type of ask would be a significant impediment for interested parties, even with forthcoming salaries of $5MM (2020), $6.75MM (2021), $2.75MM (2022), a $6.75MM club option (2023) and a luxury tax hit of just $4.0625MM.

Chicago has already been tied to Arizona’s David Peralta, but there’s no guarantee that the Diamondbacks will even make him available due to the fact that he’s controlled through 2020. Beyond that, as ESPN’s Buster Olney briefly touched upon yesterday (subscription required), Peralta’s injury history — five absences in the past three and a half seasons, including two in 2019 — could create some hesitancy for a team eyeing stability. While Olney writes that the Cubs are “open-minded” about possibilities to upgrade their lineup, he also more broadly examines the fact that this year’s altered baseball and corresponding home run surge is making it difficult for teams to evaluate players.

That reality becomes all the more apparent when looking through some of the bats available to the Cubs and other clubs on this summer’s trade market. Sifting through our recent list of the market’s top trade candidates, names like Freddy Galvis, Eric Sogard and Kole Calhoun all stand out as hitters who could be moved amid career-best power performances. None of that bunch would be the “consistent” bat the Cubs are reported to be seeking, however, and the Cubs (like other teams) are surely wondering about the sustainability of their respective power surges.

Meanwhile, both Dee Gordon and Jonathan Villar are available, but both Gordon is enduring a poor season at the plate while Villar’s year-to-year performance is full of peaks and valleys. Corey Dickerson could be moved, but the Bucs would probably prefer not to trade him to a division rival. Perhaps Detroit’s Nicholas Castellanos would more aptly fit the “professional” hitter mold sought by the Cubs, but generally speaking, this year’s market isn’t exactly flooded with solid veteran bats — particularly not at positions the Cubs could easily accommodate.

Levine also lists a left-handed reliever as an item on the Cubs’ wishlist, though that’s been known to be the case for quite some time. Beyond his speculation on San Francisco’s Will Smith and Tony Watson, the market bears a few possibilities. The Royals’ Jake Diekman would certainly be a fit, as would the even more-affordable (financially speaking) Roenis Elias in Seattle, whose trade candidacy was recently explored here at MLBTR. Were the D-backs to end up as sellers and make Andrew Chafin available, he’d surely hold interest as well.

Payroll has been an ongoing issue for the Cubs, but any of Diekman ($2.75MM), Elias ($910K) or Chafin ($1.95MM) come with a more affordable rate than Smith ($4.25MM and the highest prospect price tag) or Watson ($10.5MM in 2019 if he reaches all of his incentives, which seems likely). Notably, the Cubs’ current luxury tax payments put them within about $4MM of the top penalty bracket. Crossing that threshold would mean paying a 75 percent tax on every additional dollar spent and also dropping their top pick in next year’s draft by 10 spots. The possible return of Zobrist could add some additional salary to the books, but the lack of certainty surrounding his status makes it difficult to forecast just how much salary he’d add onto the books.

Moore: Royals Would Have “Crazy” Asking Price On Merrifield

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Royals GM Dayton Moore strongly downplayed the likelihood of the team dealing away star utilityman Whit Merrifield, as Tom Martin of KCTV5 covers (video link, on Twitter). Calling Merrifield “one of the best players in all of baseball right now,” Moore says “the ask would be just crazy” if rivals come calling this summer.

It’s sensible for the K.C. exec to take a strong public position on Merrifield with the deadline now in sight. After all, he’d surely need something truly compelling to justify parting with a player who has now fully established himself as a high-quality all-around performer who’d improve any team in the league given his defensive versatility.

At the same time, Moore has now set a rather lofty standard at the outset of the trade season. Perhaps the Royals really do not have any interest at all in moving Merrifield. If they’d like to consider offers, though, they’ll now have to deal with a public perception that any return must be overwhelming.

There is an argument to be made that Merrifield would best be utilized as a trade piece. The Royals seem to be a ways from contention and still need to gather up youthful, controllable core assets.

Merrifield is already 30 years of age, which won’t be a turnoff to contenders but perhaps places him outside the optimal range for the Royals. He’s signed to quite an appealing contract that would suit most any budget, making him a high-value trade target. We just ranked Merrifield tenth on our initial list of the top 2019 deadline candidates, but that placement would be much higher if he was clearly available. Merrifield would perhaps be the most widely pursued position player on the market if put up for bidding.

Royals Reportedly Ready To Trade “Nearly Anybody”

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With just a 19-39 record to show for the 2019 season, the Royals have the second-worst record in baseball, and are already looking ahead to next year.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that Kansas City is open to trading “nearly anybody on their roster,” with the obvious exception of a few key young players.  Adalberto Mondesi and Hunter Dozier are two of “the select untouchables,” though it seems as if K.C. is willing to at least discuss anyone else.

This includes Whit Merrifield, despite the fact that the super-utilityman just signed a $16.25MM contract extension with the Royals before the season.  As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained at the time of the deal, however, Merrifield’s extension was something of a unique circumstance, as the contract only extended Kansas City’s control over Merrifield by as much as one free agent season (via a club option for the 2023 campaign) and thus didn’t offer much financial risk to the Royals beyond what Merrifield likely would have earned anyway in his arbitration years.  From Merrifield’s perspective, he was able to lock in at least one big guaranteed payday in his late-blooming career, as Merrifield is already in his age-30 season.

From a trade perspective, that extension also makes Merrifield all the more attractive as a long-term piece for interested suitors.  He is enjoying another strong year at the plate, hitting .300/.355/.508 over 262 plate appearances, with seven homers and a league-high seven triples to go along with eight stolen bases.  Merrifield has significantly increased his pop (a .208 Isolated Slugging mark) and hard-hit ball rate (43.1%) from last season, though that latter number offers some promise of regression, as Merrifield’s xwOBA is only .349 (compared to a wOBA of .364).

Merrifield has spent much of his time at second base and right field this season, though he has experience playing everywhere but catcher and pitcher over his four MLB seasons.  His age could be a minor red flag, though between Merrifield’s hitting prowess, defensive versatility, and long-term control, he stands out as one of the better trade chips available this deadline season.  It’s also worth noting that since Merrifield is locked up on an affordable deal, Kansas City is under no particular pressure to deal the 30-year-old unless the club really wants to sell high.  As Feinsand puts it, “the Royals will need to be overwhelmed by an offer to trade” Merrifield.

Besides Mondesi and Dozier, it’s probably safe to assume that other younger, club-controlled Royals players (i.e. Brad Keller, Nicky Lopez, Jakob Junis, Jorge Lopez) are also unavailable in trade talks.  Alex Gordon is in the midst of a comeback year, though the veteran has already indicated that he wants to spend his entire career with the Royals, and thus isn’t willing to waive his no-trade production as a 10-and-5 player to approve a swap to a contender.

Beyond that group, any other Royal could potentially be on the trade block.  Feinsald cites such notable names as Jorge Soler, Danny Duffy, and Ian Kennedy, though for the latter two players, the Royals would have to eat a big portion of their remaining contracts to accommodate a deal.

Royals Promote Nicky Lopez

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The Royals have selected the contract of young infielder Nicky Lopez, per a club announcement. Righty Jake Newberry will be optioned to open an active roster spot; the 40-man move will be announced tomorrow.

Lopez’s ascent comes as a bit of a surprise. It was just two days ago, after all, that the club indicated it’d be utilizing Whit Merrifield primarily at second base. Instead, the veteran will be bumped into right field while Lopez will take the reins at the keystone. GM Dayton Moore explained that he and skipper Ned Yost changed course after discussing the matter over the weekend. (Via Rustin Dodd of The Athletic, on Twitter.)

The 24-year-old Lopez was taken out of Creighton in the fifth round of the 2016 draft. He is known more for his sturdiness than the types of loud tools that would suggest a lofty ceiling in the majors.

Lopez’s contact ability and keen approach were on display last year, when he logged a .382 on-base percentage and walked more than he struck out in a season split between the two highest levels of the minors. Entering the current campaign, he was billed as one of the organization’s ten best prospects.

While Lopez was already very much on the radar, it’s fair to say he has raised his stock quite a bit already in 2019. He hasn’t yet added significant power — and may never do so, unless he can follow the paths of a select few others that have turned contact ability into dingers in the majors — but Lopez has taken his skillset to new heights in the early going.

Over 138 plate appearances this year for Omaha, Lopez carries a .353/.457/.500 slash line with an outlandish combination of twenty walks against just five strikeouts. (That sort of BB/K ratio is associated with the original Billy Hamilton and his contemporaries, not the active Billy Hamilton who’ll soon be Lopez’s teammate.) He has also successfully swiped nine bags in a dozen attempts, which suggests an avenue for expanding his offensive value with a club that is more willing than most to tempt fate on the base paths.

Whit Merrifield Seeing Less Time In Outfield

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Royals utilityman Whit Merrifield racked up a career-high 39 outfield appearances a year ago, but he’s probably not going to approach that total this season. The Royals are wary of the physical toll that the outfield could take on Merrifield and will try to keep him at his primary position, second base, as much as possible, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com and Rustin Dodd of The Athletic explain.

While Merrifield has already accrued 11 outfield appearances this season, he hasn’t played there since April 11, Flanagan notes. In the Royals’ estimation, the decision to keep Merrifield out of the grass has likely helped him continue his impressive run of durability this season. Merrifield logged 303 of a possible 324 appearances from 2017-18, including 158 of 162 last year, and has been present in all 40 of the Royals’ games in 2019.

Unlike last year, when he was by far the brightest light on a 58-win team, Merrifield’s one of several standouts on this season’s club. At 14-26, the rebuilding Royals are still looking way up toward the majors’ contending teams, but Hunter Dozier, Adalberto Mondesi, Alex Gordon and Jorge Soler are among offensive regulars who have joined Merrifield in providing reasons for optimism. Merrifield, who’s a few months removed from signing a team-friendly extension, is slashing .294/.352/.531 (131 wRC+) in his age-30 season with 20 extra-base hits (eight doubles, six homers and six triples), seven steals and just 27 strikeouts in 180 plate appearances.

Between Merrifield and Mondesi, Kansas City’s infield looks as if its locked down for the near and long term, which will have ramifications on other members of the organization. For instance, those two are blocking hot-hitting middle infield prospect Nicky Lopez, whom general manager Dayton Moore spoke about Saturday.

“There’s nobody left to call up right now [where] there’s a chance to play every day,” Moore said. “What I will say is that yes, we’re very excited about Nicky Lopez and he will have a bright future on this team, we hope.”

The 24-year-old Lopez has hit an eye-opening .363/.463/.513 (151 wRC+) with three homers and nine steals in 134 PA with Triple-A Omaha, all while drawing 20 walks and striking out just five times. Still, if we’re to believe Moore, a promotion isn’t imminent.

Royals Extend Whit Merrifield

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The Royals have announced a four-year deal with second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported. The contract will guarantee him $16.25MM, Morosi tweets, and includes a club option for a fifth year

Merrifield earns salaries of $1MM, $5MM, $6.75MM, and $2.75MM, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan has the breakdown (Twitter links). While that may seem like an odd order at first glance, the front-loaded structure benefits the player by moving up his earnings (notably, in this case, in advance of the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement). The contract also comes with a $750K buyout on the club option, which can be exercised at $10.5MM. Rather than incentive pay, the deal includes $2MM in possible escalators in its final two guaranteed seasons, based upon plate appearances and awards.

Since Merrifield was already under control through 2022, his new deal will cover his final pre-arbitration season and his three arb-eligible years. Merrifield, a client of The L. Warner Companies, will also give up the rights to one prospective free-agent season via option. Of course, that’ll come after he has already reached his 34th birthday — a critical factor in understanding this agreement.

[RELATED: MLBTR Extension Tracker]

MLBTR profiled Merrifield as an extension candidate last March, explaining that he was a non-traditional, but nevertheless intriguing, potential target for a deal. The concept was rather simple, and remains largely the same now, though he has one more year of service and has further boosted his on-field value in the interim. For Merrifield, a deal offers a chance to ensure he locks in significant career earnings, cutting off the risks associated with his relatively advanced age — a factor that also significantly limits his future free agent upside. For the team, it’s an opportunity to achieve cost certainty and some savings for the arbitration seasons while also picking up control over an additional season of the two-time All-Star’s services.

In terms of the financial figures involved, there’s not a ton of cash at stake. For a player who remains a league-minimum earner even after hitting his 30th birthday, though, it’s a big chunk of change. Merrifield might have anticipated topping $16.25MM in his three seasons of arb to come, but not by a massive amount. Even reaching that level of pay would assume he’s at full health and continues at least to be worthy of regular playing time. Looking at a few recent second base comps, DJ LeMahieu earned exactly at that level ($16.3MM) over his three arb years. It’s certainly possible that Merrifield could have topped that with more campaigns like his 2018 effort. On the other hand, despite a higher first-year starting salary than LeMahieu, Joe Panik is now on track to earn a good bit less (he’s at $7.25MM through two seasons) after experiencing a setback season.

From the Royals’ perspective, the risk is limited and there are some clear benefits to this new pact. The broader state of the franchise is also an important consideration, though. Although the club is coming off of a 58-win season and figures to miss the playoffs for the third straight year in 2019, it has consistently turned away trade interest in Merrifield. General manager Dayton Moore declared prior to last summer’s non-waiver trade deadline that the Royals “need [Merrifield] in our city and on our team.” Thus, the late-blooming standout’s extension will serve as the organization’s latest vote of confidence not only in Merrifield, but in its broader slate of MLB and near-MLB talent.

Cashing in on the affordable club control over Merrifield through a trade surely had its appeal as well. Indications are that such an approach was at least explored at the 2018 trade deadline and perhaps in the offseason as well, though Moore made clear more recently to rival orgs that Merrifield was staying put. Of course, the pact may not preclude the Royals from trading him in the relatively near future. The Padres, for instance, awarded reliever Brad Hand a team-friendly extension last January and then traded him to the Indians in July for an offer they simply couldn’t pass up. Such a quick flip seems less likely in this case, considering the Royals’ faith in Merrifield and the team’s desire to avoid a full-blown rebuild. Generally, though, the contract shouldn’t hurt Merrifield’s marketability, even if it doesn’t vastly increase the value of his control rights.

So, what are the Royals getting for their money? A ninth-round pick of the K.C. org back in 2010, the 30-year-old Merrifield has likely emerged as the Royals’ premier player in the club’s post-Lorenzo Cain/Eric Hosmer/Mike Moustakas era. Merrifield debuted with a respectable showing in 2016, albeit over just half a season (81 games, 332 plate appearances), before truly breaking out the next year. Since 2017, the righty-hitting Merrifield has accrued 8.1 fWAR (including 5.2 in 2018, tying him for 15th among position players) and slashed .296/.347/.449 with 31 home runs and 79 stolen bases in 1,337 PAs.

Merrifield didn’t offer much power in 2018 (12 home runs, .134 ISO), but he still logged a terrific 120 wRC+ on the strength of a league-leading 192 hits, a .304 batting average and a .367 on-base percentage. When Merrifield did reach base, he terrorized opposing clubs, evidenced in part by his league-high 45 steals on 55 attempts. He was also eminently durable, appearing in 158 games, and effective in the field. Merrifield earned plus defensive marks in 900-plus innings at the keystone and upward of 300 frames in the outfield, including 241 in center.

The broad profile is of a versatile, multi-functional player who’d clearly be of interest to every single team in baseball. That’s a remarkable state of affairs given where Merrifield’s career stood entering the 2016 season, which he opened at the Triple-A level for a third-straight time, on the heels of a mediocre .265/.317/.364 showing for Omaha in the prior campaign. The intervening development is a credit both to the Royals and Merrifield, so it’s only appropriate that team and player each seem to have a path to benefit from this new contract — modest though it may be in its overall impact.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Making Sense Of The Whit Merrifield Extension

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It’s difficult sometimes to make sense of the extensions we hear about. Why is it that player A is earning so much more or less than player B? Sometimes it’s obvious; sometimes it’s not. In some cases, there are relatively unique, personal circumstances that help explain it — some of which may not even really become known publicly. In every case, the actual course of negotiations requires both sides to estimate market value at a point at which there are necessarily still key factors that are unknown. There’s plenty of variability based upon varying motivations of the particular team and player involved. Still, we like to think that market value underpins baseball contracts. Every deal is susceptible of examination from a value perspective.

Given all of that, it seems worth taking a closer look at the recently reported deal between the Royals and second baseman/center fielder Whit Merrifield. Despite two-straight All-Star seasons and an upward trajectory in his performance, he’s promised just $16.25MM over four years — less than the qualifying offer rate ($17.9MM) for a single season. He can boost that by a bit via escalators, but will also give away an option year at a $10.5MM salary. Even in the extension context, it seems like a bargain for a high-quality player who has immense versatility and a well-rounded skillset. So, how to make sense of this?

It all starts with his experience and age. Merrifield is still shy of three years of MLB service yet just recently hit his 30th birthday. Since he didn’t have enough service time to reach arbitration early as a Super Two qualifier, he was still a full season away from commanding more than the league minimum salary, with the inherent risks and limitations of the arb process to look forward to thereafter. Moreover, the recent trends in the aging curve have not been kind to elder statesmen.

Add to that the fact that Merrifield’s most notable skills — hitting for average, speed on the bases, and good and versatile glovework — are not particularly well-compensated in the arbitration process. To be sure, they do show up indirectly in earnings since the process pays players who see a lot of playing time. But power stats (homers and ribbies) have tended to pay best over time than the harder-to-quantify areas of the game. Even stolen bases, the counting stat in which Merrifield shines, aren’t considered major drivers.

Whatever one thinks of Merrifield’s particular outlook, in terms of skills and health, the overall situation was one in which his anticipated future earnings were rather limited. In arbitration, barring a huge power burst, he’d have profiled as a strong but hardly record-shattering player. And his hypothetical free agency was laden with risk. How might he look as a player four years in the future? Nobody knows, but odds are he won’t be quite in his prime, since his pre-existing arbitration control extended through his age-33 season.

Let’s dig into the numbers to see why this is the case.

First, looking at the forthcoming arb years, we can check in on some second basemen and other comps to learn about what Merrifield might have taken home had he elected to go year to year. As I’ve noted previously, DJ LeMahieu represents an interesting overall comp since he just wrapped up his own arbitration run. After starting with a $3.0MM salary, and posting one big offensive season during his arb years, he finished with a $16.3MM total — a near-exact (and perhaps not coincidental) match for what Merrifield will receive.

When I first proposed that comp last March, Merrifield had yet to post his excellent 2018 season. As things stand, it’s not hard to see a path to more than $16.25MM. Just how high Merrifield could have climbed would obviously have been dependent upon what he does in the season to come, but we can guess at some parameters.

In terms of starting point, Merrifield ought to end up with a case for much greater earning power than LeMahieu (.284/.329/.370, 15 home runs, 157 RBI, 1,901 plate appearances) and Joe Panik (.282/.345/.408, 29 home runs, 170 RBI, 1,818 plate appearances), who earned $3.45MM in his first arb year. The Dodgers’ Chris Taylor rode a breakout 2017 and solid 2018 follow-up to a first-year arb salary of $3.5MM. He’s sitting on 39 home runs and 152 RBI with a .262/.331/.435 batting line through 1490 plate appearances. Even if Merrifield isn’t able to push or top twenty long balls in 2019, he’d surely be on track to carry a much more impressive overall statistical baseline than Taylor. He already has more plate appearances (1,669) and RBI (167) and nearly as many long balls (33), with a full season left to improve upon those tallies.

On the other hand, it’s tough to foresee anything like the 34-dinger outburst and second-place MVP finish that allowed Javier Baez to achieve a $5.2MM first-year arb salary. In all likelihood, depending upon how things play out in 2018, Merrifield likely would have commanded an arb-1 salary somewhere between the numbers we’ve thrown out for consideration — say, in the realm of $3.75MM to $4.75MM.

A few other mid-arb players also help illustrate how things could have proceeded in the event that Merrifield would have kept producing throughout his arb years, quite apart from the starting point. Shortstop Marcus Semien entered arb with sixty home runs and near-average total productivity through just under two thousand plate appearances. He earned $3.125MM in his first year after an injury-limited platform season and bumped up to $5.9MM in 2019 salary after launching 15 long balls in 703 plate appearances. Scooter Gennett jumped from a $2.525MM starting point to $5.7MM and $9.775MM salaries, driven by a total of fifty dingers and robust overall productivity in his final two platform campaigns.

With good fortune and some continued improvement, Merrifield could have tracked those or even greater raises. In the best-case, reasonably realistic scenario — fully healthy seasons at the top of his prior power levels (~20 home runs annually) — he might have started at a $4.5MM level and taken home successive $3.5MM raises. That would have resulted in $24MM of total arbitration salary.

Of course, it’s imaginable that Merrifield’s performance, and/or intervening health issues, could deflect him from that sort of path. Joe Panik had set the stage for bigger earnings than that (despite suffering a major ballpark-related disadvantage vis-a-vis LeMahieu), but stumbled after taking down $3.45MM in his arb1 season. He settled for just $3.8MM for the coming campaign and has no hope of approaching LeMahieu’s overall earning level.

Obviously, any kind of significant injury would sap any player’s ability to command a raise. Since Merrifield is not even in arbitration yet, an ill-timed and significant injury (say, in camp this spring) could have been extremely damaging to his earning power. Even if things went well for a time, Merrifield would always have been vulnerable to injuries or downturns in performance. That’s the same for any player, but the risks were amplified (and the future free agent benefits diminished) by his age.

It bears emphasis that the risks still apply before Merrifield would reach arbitration, since he’s still a full season away. Don’t believe me about the variance in arb earnings? Here’s an illustration, using some big names. Francisco Lindor nearly set a first-year-eligible record when he agreed to a $10.55MM contract earlier this month. He has been healthier and more productive of late than the fellow star shortstop of the same service class to whom he’s often compared — Carlos Correa, who edged Lindor in the 2015 Rookie of the Year vote. The Astros star’s salary remains unresolved, but will fall between $4.25MM and $5MM. Despite piling up plate appearances at the outset of his career, Correa is now over five hundred shy of Lindor due to some injuries. Unsurprisingly, he has also fallen behind his contemporary in home runs and holds only a slight edge in runs batted in. Correa still holds a clear edge in overall, park-adjusted offensive productivity (128 wRC+ vs. 120 wRC+), and is still considered an elite talent, but took a down year at the wrong time. Lindor’s playing time and power ramped up in his platform years, allowing him to more than double Correa’s first-year arb earning power.

If $24MM of arbitration earnings represented a best-case scenario, then the downside was more or less unlimited. Obviously, it’s hard to imagine that Merrifield would be cut out of significant future earnings entirely, barring a truly catastrophic injury. But he’s still a full season away. And as Panik shows, it’s not hard to craft a scenario where the earnings come in well short of their anticipated trajectory. The risks are clear.

If there’s something potentially objectionable about this arrangement from Merrifield’s perspective, perhaps it’s the fact that he coughed up a free agent season. That’s where the Royals could find some real upside, since they’ll have a chance to hang onto Merrifield for only a one-year commitment, when he could in theory be in position to take down quite a bit more in free agency.

That said, just what kind of open-market earning scenarios is Merrifield really sacrificing (or, at least pushing back by one year)? It seems rather unlikely, even from four years out, that he’ll enter the 2023 season thinking he left an enormous amount of money on the table.

Take this comparison. We can all agree that Merrifield has had an outstanding pair of seasons. He’s sitting on a .296/.347/.449 cumulative slash with 31 home runs and 79 steals, with his other contributions leading to a cumulative valuation of 9.3 rWAR / 8.1 fWAR. Compare that to Jed Lowrie, who once had his own breakout season at 29 years of age. He was injured in the interim but turned things on more recently. Lowrie just hit the open market at a slightly more advanced age than Merrifield would have, sporting a two-year platform of .272/.356/.448 hitting with 37 home runs and 8.8 rWAR / 8.5 fWAR.

Lowrie’s free agent take? Two years and $20MM. That salary level is reflected in the one option year that Merrifield gave the team in his new deal, which is valued at $10.5MM — again, as with the LeMahieu arb comp, perhaps not coincidentally.

Even in a highly optimistic scenario, such as the Ben Zobrist bidding war, there’s a limit to what this sort of player can earn in free agency. Zobrist was a hot commodity entering his age-35 season, having a long track record of excellent offensive production (well outstripping Merrifield’s overall record to this point) and defensive versatility. He secured a four-year, $56MM contract.

All things considered, this seems to be rather a fair arrangement for both sides. It’s a deal that lets the team avoid a runaway arbitration salary, and perhaps gain another season of a respected veteran at a bit of a discount rate. But it’s hardly the Jose Ramirez contract — another deal involving a two-plus service class infielder who was coming off of a breakout campaign. Ramirez, of course, was just 24 years of age and was just beginning an ascendancy that has continued to levels that were perhaps not anticipated at the time. His deal conveyed a pair of valuable team options — for his age-30 and 31 seasons. The sort of upside present there just isn’t available in the Merrifield contract.

For a 30-year-old, non-slugging infielder/outfielder who is still less than three campaigns into his MLB career, this extension lands in a sensible realm in terms of both length and total guarantee. Upon sifting through some other recent contracts, it’s not hard to see how the sides landed where they did.

Infield Notes: Machado, Realmuto, LeMahieu, Merrifield, Hernandez, Arenado

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Superstar free agent Manny Machado will not meet with teams in Las Vegas, it seems, preferring instead to visit suitors at their home parks, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). That would seem to suggest that his market won’t take off over the week to come, though surely there’ll be relevant developments. If Machado is indeed plotting a course of courtship that will take place over the coming weeks, then perhaps there’s more room for earlier developments in other segments of the infield market …

  • Behind the dish, the Marlins’ asking price on J.T. Realmuto may be creeping back down to more realistic levels, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. The organization has long been said to be asking for an enormous return in exchange for two seasons of the game’s best backstop, which truthfully isn’t an unreasonable starting point. Still, as Sherman notes, the club will ultimately likely be forced to take what the offer will give. For the Mets, pursuit of Realmuto is still seen “as a long shot,” Sherman adds on Twitter. And the Phillies are presently focused on other pursuits, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter), such that they haven’t engaged with their division rivals in Miami regarding Realmuto in a few weeks’ time.
  • The Athletics have reached out to second baseman DJ LeMahieu as they continue to explore the market for second basemen, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. That’s not an indication that the Oakland org is out on Jed Lowrie, so much as the latest sign that a reunion is anything but inevitable with both parties seeing other people. LeMahieu himself likely isn’t the only alternative being considered, Slusser notes; she goes on to explore some of the other opportunities that could be pondered by the A’s brass.
  • In a boon to free agents and teams with potential trade chips at second base, Royals GM Dayton Moore tells MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (Twitter link) that he is not getting as many questions of late about Whit Merrifield. That’s not because of a lack of interest, though, so much as the fact that the Royals have “pretty much made it clear” they will hold onto the late-blooming star. Merrifield will not even be eligible for arbitration until 2020, though he’ll turn thirty before the start of the 2019 season. From an outside perspective, this seems an ideal time to market a player who’d draw wide interest given his excellent recent production, defensive flexibility, and cheap price tag. But the Kansas City org seems determined to try to build around some of its preexisting roster assets.
  • The Phillies are not finding initial success at generating interest in second baseman Cesar Hernandez, according to Jayson Stark of The Athletic (Twitter link). With a robust slate of free agents at the position and a seemingly increasing list of available trade candidates, there’s some imbalance between the supply and demand. Hernandez, 28, has been a fairly steady performer, but he did fall off a bit with the bat last year and is increasingly expensive at a projected $8.9MM arb salary in his second to last run through the process.
  • Rockies GM Jeff Bridich discussed his team’s long-term relationship possibilities with third baseman Nolan Arenado in an inteview on MLB Network (h/t Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, Twitter links). Bridich says the club can afford to carry a $200MM+ promise to Arenado, citing a “responsible growth” plan for payroll. Of course, that number may only be scratching the surface of what Arenado could command in a hypothetical post-2019 free agency, so it’s far from clear just yet whether the club will be both willing and able to line up on a new deal to keep him from the open market. Otherwise, unsurprisingly, Bridich acknowledged that the Rox are interested in improving not only in the outfield but also at first base to boost a sagging offense.

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