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Yadier Alvarez

Pitching Rumors: Gray, Verlander, Darvish, Dodgers, Straily

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With the non-waiver deadline a week from today, here’s a look at some of the talk pertaining to the top names available on the pitching market…

  • MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that the Mariners could be considering a run at Sonny Gray. Though intradivision trades are rare, GM Jerry Dipoto has already made multiple trades within the division (including the Danny Valencia trade with Gray’s Athletics), Feinsand observes. (Additionally, A’s president Billy Beane has also dealt with division rivals more frequently than most presidents/GMs). One obstacle, of course, would be the Mariners’ farm system. Seattle has already dealt Tyler O’Neill to the Cardinals for Marco Gonzales, and the M’s acquired David Phelps for a four-prospect package headlined by well-regarded young outfielder Brayan Hernandez as well. Feinsand notes that Gray would very likely require the Mariners to part with top prospect Kyle Lewis, though there’d need to be additional prospects in any package, and it’s not clear if Seattle could cobble together a bid that would top the rest of the field.
  • The Tigers are “aggressively shopping” Justin Verlander, Feinsand hears, but Detroit also “doesn’t appear willing to eat much” of Verlander’s remaining contract to facilitate a deal. Feinsand spoke to one American League GM that termed most of the talks regarding Verlander as “idle conversation,” though that GM also predicted that the former Cy Young winner will be moved by next Monday’s deadline.
  • The Dodgers were interested in Rangers ace Yu Darvish even before Clayton Kershaw’s back injury, writes Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The timetable for Kershaw’s return, once determined, will further impact their level of interest in Darvish and other arms on the market. Morosi hears that among Dodgers’ top prospects, the team is most attached to right-hander Walker Buehler, who has already ascended to Triple-A and could conceivably help the club in 2017. Texas, meanwhile, would likely target two of the Dodgers’ top four prospects (Buehler, Yadier Alvarez, Alex Verdugo and Willie Calhoun), per Morosi, which is a steep but largely unsurprising ask with the Rangers seemingly on the fence about whether to move Darvish at all.
  • The Marlins are missing an important opportunity to try to convince a team to overpay for right-hander Dan Straily, opines Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Teams like the Cubs, Twins, Brewers and Mariners are all on the hunt for controllable arms, and Straily is controlled through 2020 with very solid numbers dating back to Opening Day 2016. The paucity of quality arms available could allow the Fish to accelerate their rebuild by cashing in on Straily, but the Marlins are instead shopping only their relievers and “perhaps Dee Gordon,” according to Sherman.

Trade Chatter: Iglesias, Reds, Royals, Asdrubal, Mariners, Dodgers, Astros

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Though Raisel Iglesias’ name has somewhat frequently been mentioned on the rumor circuit, Reds general manager Dick Williams tells Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he’s not marketing his closer to other teams. That doesn’t mean that Williams won’t listen to offers on the 27-year-old, but the GM’s comments suggest that a trade isn’t especially likely “[I]f somebody really gave you an opportunity to improve your franchise, you’d have to consider it,” said Williams of listening to offers on Iglesias. “But I really like a lot of the pieces we have, and I see us not that far from being competitive if we can get some of these young pitchers to turn the corner. If I were to trade him, you’d want something back that could help us real soon.”

Some more trade chatter to kick off Thursday morning…

  • From that same piece, Williams tells Buchanan that he’s more open-minded when it comes to dealing impending free agents such as Zack Cozart, Drew Storen and recently injured Scott Feldman. The knee injury that landed Feldman on the disabled list seems particularly unfortunate, as Buchanan reports that the Reds had received trade interest in Feldman prior to that issue. His timetable for a return isn’t yet known. There’s technically time for him to be activated before the deadline if it proves to be short-term in nature, though one can imagine that most interested parties would prefer to see him make a start before moving forward with a trade. Buchanan also speculates on the possibility of a Tony Cingrani trade, noting that he’s pitching well and controlled for two more seasons, while Cincinnati has quite a few younger arms it’d like to take a look at in the ’pen.
  • The Royals are once again struggling, having dropped seven of their past 10 games, but ESPN’s Buster Olney hears that they’re not deviating from their course as deadline buyers. Kansas City has been hopeful of adding two “cost-efficient” starting pitchers and are also looking into adding a reliever. It’d take a total collapse between now and the deadline for the Royals to change course and sell off their impending free agents, Olney adds.
  • Olney also tweets that the Mets would improve their chances of finding a trade partner for Asdrubal Cabrera by playing him at third base. Rival evaluators are hopeful of seeing him at that position before making a determination, per Olney, and it now appears likely that the Mets will accommodate them. Newsday’s Marc Carig reports that Cabrera is set to begin taking grounders at the hot corner, and manager Terry Collins confirmed as much to Carig’s colleague, David Lennon (Twitter link).
  • The Mariners “appear willing” to trade outfield prospect Tyler O’Neill this summer, reports Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. The 22-year-old O’Neill entered the season ranked among the game’s 50 or so best prospects on several notable lists (Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus) but got off to a poor start to the season in Triple-A. He’s recovered with a 1.127 OPS over his past 26 games to bring his batting line back up to a respectable .241/.326/.462, but Dutton notes that the emergence of Mitch Haniger and Ben Gamel has the M’s more open to a deal. Despite the presence of that duo, however, Seattle hasn’t shown an inclination to deal top organizational prospect Kyle Lewis.
  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick writes that the Dodgers and Astros have put themselves in such strong position that neither strongly needs to make a move prior to the trade deadline. However, both Dodgers president Andrew Friedman and Astros GM Jeff Luhnow are viewed as extremely opportunistic types and figure to look at ways to upgrade their roster anyhow. Crasnick classifies the Dodgers’ interest in Orioles closer Zach Britton as “legitimate” but notes that they’re a bit cautious due to his 2017 forearm issues. Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday that L.A. is reluctant to part with prospects Alex Verdugo and Walker Buehler in trades, and Crasnick echoes that statement while also adding righty Yadier Alvarez to the list. While the three aren’t quite “untouchable,” none of the three seems especially likely to go. As for the Astros, they’ll continue looking for a starter that could join the playoff rotation behind Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, though they, too, could look instead to a late-inning lefty like Britton or Detroit’s Justin Wilson.

Heyman’s Latest: Miller, Marlins, Cole, Tigers, Agency Changes

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Last August, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Diamondbacks and Marlins were in talks regarding a possible Shelby Miller trade that was ultimately vetoed by D-backs owner Ken Kendrick. Roughly nine months later, FanRag’s Jon Heyman adds some more context to the story, noting that the two sides were in talks regarding right-handers Luis Castillo, Jose Urena and Austin Brice were all being discussed as potential pieces for Arizona to acquire, as was left-hander Dillon Peters (not necessarily all four, though Castillo and Urena were likely the centerpieces). One D-backs source tells Heyman the trade was never close, though Heyman cites others who agreed with Nightengale’s report, stating that Kendrick did indeed veto the deal when it was close to fruition. Miller, of course, remained with the D-backs and looked better in 2017 than he did in 2016 before suffering a torn UCL and undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Heyman’s weekly American League and National League Notes columns reveal a few more interesting hot stove items…

  • Despite the fact that multiple reports suggest the bidding price for the Marlins is around $1.3 billion, some have suggested to Heyman that the team’s lack of revenue and significant financial commitments to Giancarlo Stanton, Wei-Yin Chen, Martin Prado and others will ultimately lower the sale price after a full financial examination. Heyman adds that despite prior reports, he’s been told that Alex Rodriguez was never actually offered a spot in the Tagg Romney/Tom Glavine group that is vying to purchase the Marlins. Whether A-Rod was made an offer or not, the key takeaway is that it appears he won’t be involved in the sale.
  • Rival executives believe that Pirates ace Gerrit Cole could land on the trade market this summer, per Heyman. The former No. 1 overall pick would make for an extremely interesting addition to the summer trade market, though Bucs certainly needn’t feel compelled to trade him. Cole is controlled through the 2019 season and is earning a perfectly reasonable $3.8MM this season (though that number will spike in his second trip through arbitration this winter). Nonetheless, with two and a half years of club control left, Cole would fetch a significant haul of young talent if he were actually made available. It seems quite likely that the Bucs will listen on Andrew McCutchen and Tony Watson this summer (Watson, like Mark Melancon last year, is a pending free agent), but Cole would have the most significant value of the bunch.
  • Even if a closer upgrade were available to the Tigers at the moment, they don’t have the money to make an addition (or at least wouldn’t be willing to spend it). Detroit recently demoted Francisco Rodriguez from the ninth inning in favor of Justin Wilson following a brutal start to the season for K-Rod, and their bullpen has once again been a weak spot. Heyman notes that GM Al Avila at one point made a trip to Triple-A Toledo and “read the riot act” to right-hander Bruce Rondon, who has responded by dropping 15 pounds. Rondon was once viewed as a potential closer of the future, but he’s yet to establish himself and has had issues with his conditioning and effort level.
  • Heyman also reports a pair of agency changes, noting that Red Sox top prospect Rafael Devers is now a client of Rep 1 Baseball, while Dodgers top prospect Yadier Alvarez is now repped by Wasserman. Neither has made his MLB debut yet, though both are considered among the game’s top 25 to 50 prospects and could theoretically surface in the Majors within the next calendar year or so (Devers, who is already in Double-A, appears closer than Alvarez, who has just 18 innings in High-A). Both changes are now reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains representation info on roughly more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. If you see any inaccuracies or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Heyman’s Latest: Encarnacion, Trumbo, Jays, Moss, Napoli, Dozier, Padres

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In the wake of Edwin Encarnacion’s signing, there are now a whole lot of power hitters who could be next in line to sign. That situation provides much of the impetus behind the latest notes column from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. You’ll want to read the whole thing to get his full take on the market, but here are a few notable items of information:

  • The Athletics’ entry into the chase for Encarnacion helped push the action that led to his signing, per Heyman. Oakland proposed two separate scenarios, he notes, one of which would’ve been a straight two-year, $50MM deal and the other of which would have tacked on a third-year option in exchange for an opt-out clause. Before those offers pushed the Indians to boost their own deal, Encarnacion had been fielding many less-desirable possible arrangements. Indeed, the Blue Jays were mostly engaged with their former star on one-year possibilities most recently, Heyman notes.
  • With Encarnacion now off to Cleveland, the many remaining sluggers will be looking to land with a variety of other suitors. Heyman suggests that the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rangers are all “very likely” to add bats, while listing a number of other teams that could get involved as well. That includes the Rays, Giants, Phillies, White Sox, Angels, and Rockies, each of whom has at least some interest in the remaining market.
  • Mark Trumbo is probably now the player with the highest earning capacity who has yet to sign, but his landing spot remains hard to peg. Beyond the Orioles and Rockies, Heyman says, “a couple more opportunities may have cropped up” of late.
  • It seems unlikely that the Blue Jays will punt a pick to sign Jose Bautista (which they’d technically be doing, as they’d no longer be in line for the comp pick they stand to gain when he signs elsewhere), he adds, even if he’s now available on a one-year pact. Toronto does need to make some outfield additions, though, and Heyman writes that the club has kept tabs on free agents Michael Saunders and Brandon Moss, along with “many others.” The Orioles are also said to have interest in Saunders, as has been suggested previously, and Heyman suggests that the Phillies — who’d prefer to add a lefty bat — have some interest in Moss.
  • Mike Napoli was said to be seeking a three-year deal earlier this winter, but this report now indicates that he’s seeking a two-year contract, which seems quite a bit more plausible. The Rangers are reportedly a “strong possibility” for Napoli, though Heyman notes the possibility of the ever-popular “mystery team” in Napoli’s market, suggesting that Napoli has at least one suitor that has yet to be linked to him publicly.
  • While the Dodgers are willing to give up Jose De Leon in a trade that would net them Brian Dozier from the Twins, they’re not willing to include first base prospect Cody Bellinger or well-regarded right-handed pitching prospects Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler alongside De Leon. Heyman writes that some clubs feel the Dodgers are being “stingy” with their prospects and overvaluing their minor league talent, though as he points out, that approach worked to their benefit with regards to Corey Seager and Julio Urias (although none of the names listed are as well-regarded as that pair was).
  • In addition to Jered Weaver, veteran right-handers Jake Peavy and Colby Lewis are on the Padres’ radar. Peavy would love the opportunity to return to San Diego, where he established himself as a star and won the 2007 National League Cy Young Award. I’ll point out that Lewis, too, has some connections to the Padres, as GM A.J. Preller was in the Rangers’ front office when Lewis returned from Japan and cemented himself as a Major League-caliber arm.

West Notes: Henderson Alvarez, Yadier Alvarez, Tolleson, Dyson

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The MRI results on the shoulder of Athletics righty Henderson Alvarez were inconclusive, manager Bob Melvin told reports, including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links). They’ll be sent for a closer look by Dr. James Andrews, who performed his surgery. As things stand, then, it’s largely unknown when Alvarez will be able to re-start his rehab process and begin working back toward the big league hill.

Here are a few more notes from out west:

  • Dodgers righty Yadier Alvarez is looking good at extended Spring Training, per a recent scouting report from new Fangraphs prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. The review was glowing, with Longenhagen calling Alvarez one of the game’s most exciting pitching prospects on the basis of his athleticism, smooth mechanics, and high-octane stuff. You’ll want to give the write-up a full read for all the details, but it sounds as if the Dodgers have reason to like their big investment.
  • The Rangers have formally moved Shawn Tolleson out of the closer role after his rough outing last night, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram was among those to report (Twitter links) Tolleson currently owns a 9.20 ERA and has blown three of his last five save opportunities.
  • It appears that Sam Dyson will be first in line to take a shot at locking down the 9th inning for the Rangers, though it’s unclear how long a leash he’ll have. He’s worked to a 1.43 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in 50 1/3 innings for the Rangers since coming over rather quietly in a trade last summer. With the chance to pad his resume with some saves, he could be in line for a nice payday this winter, when he’ll likely qualify for Super Two status after entering the season with 1.142 years of service on his ledger.

International Notes: Eddy Julio Martinez, Yadier Alvarez

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Here’s the latest on some high-profile international talent from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez…

  • The Reds have a workout scheduled with Cuban outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez tomorrow in the Dominican Republic, Sanchez tweets.  The Giants are also “still in [the] mix” to sign the 20-year-old.  There hasn’t been much news on Martinez since early July, though he’d worked out for at least six teams and drawn interest from several more.  The highly-touted Martinez is expected to command at least a $10MM signing bonus, so if Cincinnati were to sign him, the Reds would far exceed their current international bonus pool and be limited to $300K-or-less signings in each of the next two international signing periods.  San Francisco, meanwhile, has already exceeded its 2015-16 pool limit so the Giants could decide to load up on international talent now since they face restrictions from 2016-18.
  • Yadier Alvarez’s $16MM bonus from the Dodgers is thus far the biggest bonus of the 2015-16 international class.  Sanchez checks in with the 19-year-old Cuban righty to see how he’s adjusting to life at the Dodgers’ Dominican academy, as well as the challenges Alvarez faced in finding a trainer after leaving Cuba.
  • Also from that piece, Sanchez notes that Enrique Estrada, another Cuban teenage pitcher, has left the island and recently established residence in Haiti.  Estrada “has a history of success in Cuba” but it isn’t know when he’ll be cleared to sign with an MLB team.  He’s still weeks away from showcases and Sanchez notes that Estrada is still “an unknown in some Major League circles.”

Dodgers To Sign Yadier Alvarez, Other Top International Prospects

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The Dodgers have indeed agreed upon a $16MM bonus with Cuban right-hander Yadier Alvarez, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports (links to Twitter). That is expected to be the single largest payout given a single player on this year’s international market and is the second-largest bonus ever given to an international amateur, trailing only Yoan Moncada’s $31.5MM bonus with the Red Sox. Alvarez is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council and Rick Thurman, Rafael Nieves and Nelson Montes.

Alvarez popped onto the scene earlier this year with a big fastball and exciting slider. He has drawn some mixed reviews, but obviously the Dodgers are believers. The opportunity to sign Alvarez, among other players, was cited as a primary reason that the organization declined to top the Red Sox’ offer for Yoan Moncada this spring.

In the eyes of Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs, Alvarez was the best player available on the basis of his mid-to-upper nineties heater, plus slider, and promising change. He also possesses good athleticism and good overall physical tools, leading McDaniel to believe that he has a good chance of harnessing his stuff. Ben Badler of Baseball America expresses more concern with Alvarez’s lack of a track record and current tendency toward being wild, explaining that there is plenty of risk to go with the obvious upside.

Los Angeles has also agreed with outfielder Starling Heredia on a $2.6MM bonus and with infielder Ronny Brito on a $2MM bonus, per Sanchez. Those players, both hailing from the Dominican Republic, also rated amongst the thirty best international prospects available according to most analysts. MLB.com placed Heredia fifth on its list, citing his “raw power and projectable body.” McDaniel had Brito in the 15th place on his board, noting that he has the upside to develop into a prospect on the order of J.P. Crawford if he can pair a useful bat with good speed and fielding ability.

With just these three signings alone, Los Angeles will easily land well over its fairly meager international spending allocation of $2,020,300. Every dollar spent above that mark will be taxed at a 100% rate, meaning the Dodgers are already nearing $40MM in total obligations.

2015-16 International Signing Period Now Open

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Today marks the opening of the 2015-16 international signing period, during which so-called “July 2” prospects can begin inking deals with MLB clubs. Every MLB team has been allocated a series of bonus slots, all of which may be traded, with certain restrictions. Baseball America provides a tally of each team’s total available pool this year. Clubs that spend over their allotment face escalating penalties, ranging from 100% taxes on overages to a two-year ban on $300K+ international bonuses (for going over 15% above the total allocation). This year, the team with the top overall pool allocation — the Diamondbacks ($5,393,900) — is ineligible to spend more than that amount on any single player, and is expected to deal away some of its capacity since it cannot put it to full use. Likewise, the Angels, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees face that limitation due to budget-busting deals in the 2014-15 July 2 period. And numerous additional clubs are expected to incur future signing limitations in the coming signing period. While most of the players subject to the signing rules are a long ways away from the big leagues, there are undoubtedly impact players among them — some of whom could come up in trade talks long before they’re close to the majors.

Here’s the latest on the market, which will gear up quickly, as well as some key resources to get acquainted with:

  • As has been widely expected — and as Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs reported several months back — the Dodgers are set to sign Cuban righty Yadier Alvarez to a $16MM bonus, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports (Twitter links). Passan does caution that it’s best to wait until Alvarez formally signs to declare his market closed. Los Angeles has just over $2MM in spending capacity, meaning that it would start off with a $14MM overage tax on its bill and take on a two-year signing ban for adding Alvarez alone.
  • MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez just provided one major market shift, reporting that the Giants appear to be in the lead for shortstop Lucius Fox, who landed third overall on Sanchez’s list of the thirty best international prospects available on the market.
  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler provides his final top-thirty prospect list, with detailed scouting reports on all those players ranked as well as notes on the teams favored to sign them. He also breaks down each MLB team’s expected overall approach heading into July 2.
  • Likewise, McDaniel has produced his final pre-signing board, which also includes his own assessments of many of the most highly-regarded names and projections of their landing spots. While Badler rates Vladimir Guerrero Jr. first overall, McDaniel places him fourth, giving the top spot to the aforementioned Alvarez.

International Notes: Rankings, Spending, Alvarez, Guerrero

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The 2015-16 international signing period kicks off in six days (July 2), which will lead to significant spending from clubs all around the league in an effort to bolster their farm system. The Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Angels and Diamondbacks will each be ineligible to sign a player for more than $300K due to vastly overshooting their league-assigned international bonus pools in the 2014-15 signing period. Meanwhile, the Cubs and Rangers will be back in the game after being similarly restricted in the 2014-15 period due to excessive spending in 2013-14. Both teams are expected to again be aggressive, though it’s the Dodgers who are rumored to be the most aggressive team on this year’s international market. Here are some notes on this year’s class of July 2 players…

  • Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has released an excellent sortable prospect board with scouting reports, video, projected bonus information and the likeliest landing spot, with information on 69 different international prospects (not all info available for all prospects). McDaniel currently projects the Dodgers to spend $27.05MM on the international market, though that number could grow, as it’s not clear where every prospect is going to land yet. That $27.05MM figure, by the way, comes out to more than $50MM after factoring in the 100% luxury tax they’ll pay for exceeding their $2,020,300 pool by more than 15 percent (pool info via Baseball America).
  • In addition to the Dodgers and Cubs, the Royals are expected to blow past their international spending limit as well, writes McDaniel in a separate piece. No one figures to match the Dodgers, though, who are “so recklessly signing whichever player they want for whatever number it takes that teams are openly wondering what top Cuban player they won’t sign during this period,” McDaniel notes. It’s currently tough to peg the market for top Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez, but the Dodgers should be considered the favorite for all Cuban players due to their hyper-aggressive approach, McDaniel adds. He also looks ahead to the 2016-17 market, touching on top names such as Kevin Maitan and Abraham Gutierrez.
  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler spoke to six scouts about top international prospects Yadier Alvarez (link) and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (link). Alvarez’s name has been on the pages of MLBTR for months, as the Cuban righty is said to be the top international pitching prospect on the market thanks to a fastball that reaches 98 mph and the makings of a wipeout slider and an above-average changeup. Badler looks at his sudden emergence from obscurity and gets the takes of scouts who praise him, but also those who view him as a future reliever. As for Guerrero, scouts feel that he has the best combination of hitting ability and power in this year’s class, but he’s already a thick player with a so-so arm, leading to questions about his defensive placement down the line. Alvarez is believed to have a bonus of $16MM+ waiting from the Dodgers, whereas the Blue Jays have long been believed to have a deal with Guerrero (McDaniel pegs the value at $3.45MM).

Prospect Notes: Turner, Draft Updates, Cuba

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The Nationals can finalize their acquisition of Padres shortstop Trea Turner as soon as June 14, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson reports. Turner, the widely-reported player to be named later in the deal that delivered Wil Myers to San Diego — with the Nationals giving up Steven Souza (to the Rays) and also picking up righty Joe Ross — has remained with the Padres organization under the since-changed rules regarding drafted players. The 21-year-old owns a .322/.389/.478 slash with five home runs and ten steals in 231 plate appearances at Double-A.

  • Several notable names have come off the board early on day two of the draft. Duke righty Michael Matuella went to the Rangers with the third pick of the third round (78th overall). Not long after, the Padres took fellow right-hander Jacob Nix, whom the Astros were unable to sign last year after their deal with top pick Brady Aiken fell through. And the Nationals grabbed Mariano Rivera Jr. with the 134th choice.
  • Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs offers his thoughts on yesterday’s draft proceedings, explaining that it is premature to judge the Marlins harshly at this juncture for choosing young slugger Josh Naylor in the first round (much higher than most pundits had him rated). After all, as McDaniel rightly notes, the supposed “value” of a pick will never be as important in the long run as the simple fact of whether that player develops and produces, and at some point teams simply have to take guys they believe in when they can get them. Check out the piece for Kiley’s views on the clubs that chose well on the draft’s first day.
  • Amateur players come to clubs through the draft and the international signing market, of course, making comparison difficult. Ben Badler of Baseball America discusses the latest news and analysis on the Cuban market, providing a helpful guide on several notable names by assigning them a rough (and entirely hypothetical) draft value. Notably, Badler does not share the optimism that some have expressed regarding righty Yadier Alvarez and, in particular, outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez.

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