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NL West Notes: Padres, Archer, Giants, Shark, Evans, Dodgers

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Reports yesterday indicated the Padres were checking around about a potential Chris Archer trade with the Rays, and MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi sheds a bit more light on those talks.  San Diego is reportedly willing to move one or two of Francisco Mejia, Luis Urias, and Cal Quantrill in an Archer deal, though its top two prospects (Fernando Tatis Jr. and MacKenzie Gore) are not available.  Even without Tatis or Gore on the table, dealing any of those other highly-touted prospects would be a major concession on San Diego’s part, and a big score for the Rays.  Mejia was only just acquired by the Padres as the return for Brad Hand and Adam Cimber, so in my opinion, it could be that the team sees the young catcher as somewhat “found money” — put another way, the Padres would be essentially dealing Hand and Cimber for Archer, which is a deal the club would’ve happily made.  Then again, the Padres are so deep in minor league talent that they can afford to move top names like Mejia, Urias, or Quantrill and still have one of the game’s better farm systems.

Scouts from the Padres and Diamondbacks (and, from outside the division, the Phillies and Cubs) watched Archer’s start last Sunday.  A source tells Morosi that at least eight teams have recently been in touch with the Rays about Archer’s availability, and while there still isn’t clear sign Tampa is considering a trade, this deep interest is one of the reasons “a deal involving Archer is more likely now than at any point in recent memory,” Morosi writes.

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • There’s still no timetable for the Giants to welcome back righty Jeff Samardzija, though it’s not looking particularly promising. Per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, via Twitter, the veteran hurler is “not returning anytime soon.” Rather, he’ll continue to rest his ailing shoulder before heading out for some amount of rehab work. This continues to be a lost season for the 33-year-old, who owns a 6.25 ERA in 44 2/3 innings
  • Though Samardzija’s ongoing injury issue is one of several less-than-promising signs for the Giants, indications are that they aren’t interested in packing up and waiting for next year. GM Bobby Evans says in a chat with Joel Sherman of the New York Post that the front office is “bent toward helping our current club.”  Though Evans expressed at least some willingness to consider moving bullpen pieces, such a move wouldn’t really serve the team’s interests, particularly after the Giants previously gave up young talent to shed salary.  While the team is still within reasonable striking distance in the NL West, its place in the trade deadline picture remains unclear — though Evans did shut down any thought that the team would make a last-minute decision to make star lefty Madison Bumgarner available.
  • The Dodgers sent scouts to watch pitchers on both the Marlins and Rays when the two Florida rivals faced off last weekend, the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer reports (Twitter link).  L.A. could have interested in any number of relievers or perhaps even starting pitchers on either roster, given how many Miami and Tampa players have been cited in trade rumors.  Interestingly, Spencer’s tweet was linked to a tweet from Michael J. Duarte of NBC Los Angeles, who said that the Marlins had scouts watching Yadier Alvarez’s most recent Double-A outing.  A consensus top prospect headed into the 2017 season, Alvarez didn’t crack the preseason top-100 lists for Baseball America or MLB.com this year (though Baseball Prospectus still had him 41st) in the wake of an unimpressive season.  Alvarez has continued to struggle in 2018, with a 5.85 ERA and 25 walks in 20 frames for Double-A Tulsa, though he’s still missing a lot of bats with his 100-mph fastball.

7 Teams Have Made Offers For Manny Machado

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SUNDAY: The Dodgers and Brewers are at the forefront of the Machado derby, and the Indians are also “in the mix,” Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets.

SATURDAY: It’s possible Manny Machado’s tenure with the Orioles will come to an end as early as this weekend, according to the Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina, who reports that seven teams have made offers for the soon-to-be free agent. The Dodgers have put forth the most enticing proposal, Encina hears, with the Diamondbacks, Brewers, Phillies, Braves, Indians and Cubs (in that order) coming in behind them. But the offers are “very close” in value, per Encina, so any of those other six clubs could leapfrog Los Angeles to land Machado prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com passes along slightly different information than Encina, suggesting the Indians are currently in last place among the previously mentioned seven teams in the race for Machado. Cleveland has made an offer, Kubatko reports, but a source tells him other clubs are “more active” in the sweepstakes. Interest in Machado goes beyond the seven teams mentioned, Kubatko adds, as several others have at least “checked in” on him.

It “seems unlikely” Baltimore will deal Machado this weekend, Encina writes, but it’s all but guaranteed to happen sometime this month. After all, the Orioles (24-64) own the majors’ worst record, and they’ll either have to trade the 26-year-old Machado in the next three-plus weeks or watch him leave for draft-pick compensation in free agency. The superstar shortstop/third baseman is sure to reel in one of the richest contracts in the history of the sport once he hits the open market, and he has helped his future earning power by batting a healthy .310/.381/.560 with 21 home runs and nearly as many walks (40) as strikeouts (50) in 375 plate appearances this season.

If the Dodgers are the team that upgrades at short with Machado this summer, it may come at the expense of either outfield prospect Alex Verdugo or young pitcher Yadier Alvarez. The Orioles have shown interest in both of those farmhands – two of the finest talents in the minors – though the Dodgers’ offers so far have not included either player, Encina relays, and Kubatko writes that LA has not made Verdugo available. Considering their wealth of offensive talent, it’s arguable the Dodgers won’t even need Machado as they seek a sixth straight National League West title and a second consecutive NL pennant. But acquiring him would still be a boon to them and a blow to the rival Diamondbacks, who lead LA by one game in the NL West and haven’t gotten high-end production from their shortstops this year.

Like the D-backs, none of the Brewers, Phillies or Braves have fared well at short. The Indians and Cubs have, on the other hand. But Machado could be a third base solution for the Indians, who have the great Francisco Lindor at short and would be able to shift fellow superstar Jose Ramirez from the hot corner to second base to make room for Machado. In doing so, the Tribe would presumably relegate struggling second baseman Jason Kipnis to a bench role. The Cubs, meanwhile, have an impressive-looking setup at second (Javier Baez), short (Addison Russell) and third (the currently injured Kris Bryant), so it’s unclear where Machado would fit, though there has long been speculation about Russell going to Baltimore in a deal. However, Russell is under affordable control through 2020 and would be a lot to give up for a rental player – albeit one who’d serve as an upgrade for a Chicago team which trails NL Central-leading Milwaukee by 1 1/2 games.

Pitching Rumors: Gray, Verlander, Darvish, Dodgers, Straily

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With the non-waiver deadline a week from today, here’s a look at some of the talk pertaining to the top names available on the pitching market…

  • MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that the Mariners could be considering a run at Sonny Gray. Though intradivision trades are rare, GM Jerry Dipoto has already made multiple trades within the division (including the Danny Valencia trade with Gray’s Athletics), Feinsand observes. (Additionally, A’s president Billy Beane has also dealt with division rivals more frequently than most presidents/GMs). One obstacle, of course, would be the Mariners’ farm system. Seattle has already dealt Tyler O’Neill to the Cardinals for Marco Gonzales, and the M’s acquired David Phelps for a four-prospect package headlined by well-regarded young outfielder Brayan Hernandez as well. Feinsand notes that Gray would very likely require the Mariners to part with top prospect Kyle Lewis, though there’d need to be additional prospects in any package, and it’s not clear if Seattle could cobble together a bid that would top the rest of the field.
  • The Tigers are “aggressively shopping” Justin Verlander, Feinsand hears, but Detroit also “doesn’t appear willing to eat much” of Verlander’s remaining contract to facilitate a deal. Feinsand spoke to one American League GM that termed most of the talks regarding Verlander as “idle conversation,” though that GM also predicted that the former Cy Young winner will be moved by next Monday’s deadline.
  • The Dodgers were interested in Rangers ace Yu Darvish even before Clayton Kershaw’s back injury, writes Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The timetable for Kershaw’s return, once determined, will further impact their level of interest in Darvish and other arms on the market. Morosi hears that among Dodgers’ top prospects, the team is most attached to right-hander Walker Buehler, who has already ascended to Triple-A and could conceivably help the club in 2017. Texas, meanwhile, would likely target two of the Dodgers’ top four prospects (Buehler, Yadier Alvarez, Alex Verdugo and Willie Calhoun), per Morosi, which is a steep but largely unsurprising ask with the Rangers seemingly on the fence about whether to move Darvish at all.
  • The Marlins are missing an important opportunity to try to convince a team to overpay for right-hander Dan Straily, opines Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Teams like the Cubs, Twins, Brewers and Mariners are all on the hunt for controllable arms, and Straily is controlled through 2020 with very solid numbers dating back to Opening Day 2016. The paucity of quality arms available could allow the Fish to accelerate their rebuild by cashing in on Straily, but the Marlins are instead shopping only their relievers and “perhaps Dee Gordon,” according to Sherman.

Trade Chatter: Iglesias, Reds, Royals, Asdrubal, Mariners, Dodgers, Astros

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Though Raisel Iglesias’ name has somewhat frequently been mentioned on the rumor circuit, Reds general manager Dick Williams tells Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he’s not marketing his closer to other teams. That doesn’t mean that Williams won’t listen to offers on the 27-year-old, but the GM’s comments suggest that a trade isn’t especially likely “[I]f somebody really gave you an opportunity to improve your franchise, you’d have to consider it,” said Williams of listening to offers on Iglesias. “But I really like a lot of the pieces we have, and I see us not that far from being competitive if we can get some of these young pitchers to turn the corner. If I were to trade him, you’d want something back that could help us real soon.”

Some more trade chatter to kick off Thursday morning…

  • From that same piece, Williams tells Buchanan that he’s more open-minded when it comes to dealing impending free agents such as Zack Cozart, Drew Storen and recently injured Scott Feldman. The knee injury that landed Feldman on the disabled list seems particularly unfortunate, as Buchanan reports that the Reds had received trade interest in Feldman prior to that issue. His timetable for a return isn’t yet known. There’s technically time for him to be activated before the deadline if it proves to be short-term in nature, though one can imagine that most interested parties would prefer to see him make a start before moving forward with a trade. Buchanan also speculates on the possibility of a Tony Cingrani trade, noting that he’s pitching well and controlled for two more seasons, while Cincinnati has quite a few younger arms it’d like to take a look at in the ’pen.
  • The Royals are once again struggling, having dropped seven of their past 10 games, but ESPN’s Buster Olney hears that they’re not deviating from their course as deadline buyers. Kansas City has been hopeful of adding two “cost-efficient” starting pitchers and are also looking into adding a reliever. It’d take a total collapse between now and the deadline for the Royals to change course and sell off their impending free agents, Olney adds.
  • Olney also tweets that the Mets would improve their chances of finding a trade partner for Asdrubal Cabrera by playing him at third base. Rival evaluators are hopeful of seeing him at that position before making a determination, per Olney, and it now appears likely that the Mets will accommodate them. Newsday’s Marc Carig reports that Cabrera is set to begin taking grounders at the hot corner, and manager Terry Collins confirmed as much to Carig’s colleague, David Lennon (Twitter link).
  • The Mariners “appear willing” to trade outfield prospect Tyler O’Neill this summer, reports Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. The 22-year-old O’Neill entered the season ranked among the game’s 50 or so best prospects on several notable lists (Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus) but got off to a poor start to the season in Triple-A. He’s recovered with a 1.127 OPS over his past 26 games to bring his batting line back up to a respectable .241/.326/.462, but Dutton notes that the emergence of Mitch Haniger and Ben Gamel has the M’s more open to a deal. Despite the presence of that duo, however, Seattle hasn’t shown an inclination to deal top organizational prospect Kyle Lewis.
  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick writes that the Dodgers and Astros have put themselves in such strong position that neither strongly needs to make a move prior to the trade deadline. However, both Dodgers president Andrew Friedman and Astros GM Jeff Luhnow are viewed as extremely opportunistic types and figure to look at ways to upgrade their roster anyhow. Crasnick classifies the Dodgers’ interest in Orioles closer Zach Britton as “legitimate” but notes that they’re a bit cautious due to his 2017 forearm issues. Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday that L.A. is reluctant to part with prospects Alex Verdugo and Walker Buehler in trades, and Crasnick echoes that statement while also adding righty Yadier Alvarez to the list. While the three aren’t quite “untouchable,” none of the three seems especially likely to go. As for the Astros, they’ll continue looking for a starter that could join the playoff rotation behind Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, though they, too, could look instead to a late-inning lefty like Britton or Detroit’s Justin Wilson.

Heyman’s Latest: Miller, Marlins, Cole, Tigers, Agency Changes

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Last August, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Diamondbacks and Marlins were in talks regarding a possible Shelby Miller trade that was ultimately vetoed by D-backs owner Ken Kendrick. Roughly nine months later, FanRag’s Jon Heyman adds some more context to the story, noting that the two sides were in talks regarding right-handers Luis Castillo, Jose Urena and Austin Brice were all being discussed as potential pieces for Arizona to acquire, as was left-hander Dillon Peters (not necessarily all four, though Castillo and Urena were likely the centerpieces). One D-backs source tells Heyman the trade was never close, though Heyman cites others who agreed with Nightengale’s report, stating that Kendrick did indeed veto the deal when it was close to fruition. Miller, of course, remained with the D-backs and looked better in 2017 than he did in 2016 before suffering a torn UCL and undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Heyman’s weekly American League and National League Notes columns reveal a few more interesting hot stove items…

  • Despite the fact that multiple reports suggest the bidding price for the Marlins is around $1.3 billion, some have suggested to Heyman that the team’s lack of revenue and significant financial commitments to Giancarlo Stanton, Wei-Yin Chen, Martin Prado and others will ultimately lower the sale price after a full financial examination. Heyman adds that despite prior reports, he’s been told that Alex Rodriguez was never actually offered a spot in the Tagg Romney/Tom Glavine group that is vying to purchase the Marlins. Whether A-Rod was made an offer or not, the key takeaway is that it appears he won’t be involved in the sale.
  • Rival executives believe that Pirates ace Gerrit Cole could land on the trade market this summer, per Heyman. The former No. 1 overall pick would make for an extremely interesting addition to the summer trade market, though Bucs certainly needn’t feel compelled to trade him. Cole is controlled through the 2019 season and is earning a perfectly reasonable $3.8MM this season (though that number will spike in his second trip through arbitration this winter). Nonetheless, with two and a half years of club control left, Cole would fetch a significant haul of young talent if he were actually made available. It seems quite likely that the Bucs will listen on Andrew McCutchen and Tony Watson this summer (Watson, like Mark Melancon last year, is a pending free agent), but Cole would have the most significant value of the bunch.
  • Even if a closer upgrade were available to the Tigers at the moment, they don’t have the money to make an addition (or at least wouldn’t be willing to spend it). Detroit recently demoted Francisco Rodriguez from the ninth inning in favor of Justin Wilson following a brutal start to the season for K-Rod, and their bullpen has once again been a weak spot. Heyman notes that GM Al Avila at one point made a trip to Triple-A Toledo and “read the riot act” to right-hander Bruce Rondon, who has responded by dropping 15 pounds. Rondon was once viewed as a potential closer of the future, but he’s yet to establish himself and has had issues with his conditioning and effort level.
  • Heyman also reports a pair of agency changes, noting that Red Sox top prospect Rafael Devers is now a client of Rep 1 Baseball, while Dodgers top prospect Yadier Alvarez is now repped by Wasserman. Neither has made his MLB debut yet, though both are considered among the game’s top 25 to 50 prospects and could theoretically surface in the Majors within the next calendar year or so (Devers, who is already in Double-A, appears closer than Alvarez, who has just 18 innings in High-A). Both changes are now reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains representation info on roughly more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. If you see any inaccuracies or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Heyman’s Latest: Encarnacion, Trumbo, Jays, Moss, Napoli, Dozier, Padres

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In the wake of Edwin Encarnacion’s signing, there are now a whole lot of power hitters who could be next in line to sign. That situation provides much of the impetus behind the latest notes column from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. You’ll want to read the whole thing to get his full take on the market, but here are a few notable items of information:

  • The Athletics’ entry into the chase for Encarnacion helped push the action that led to his signing, per Heyman. Oakland proposed two separate scenarios, he notes, one of which would’ve been a straight two-year, $50MM deal and the other of which would have tacked on a third-year option in exchange for an opt-out clause. Before those offers pushed the Indians to boost their own deal, Encarnacion had been fielding many less-desirable possible arrangements. Indeed, the Blue Jays were mostly engaged with their former star on one-year possibilities most recently, Heyman notes.
  • With Encarnacion now off to Cleveland, the many remaining sluggers will be looking to land with a variety of other suitors. Heyman suggests that the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rangers are all “very likely” to add bats, while listing a number of other teams that could get involved as well. That includes the Rays, Giants, Phillies, White Sox, Angels, and Rockies, each of whom has at least some interest in the remaining market.
  • Mark Trumbo is probably now the player with the highest earning capacity who has yet to sign, but his landing spot remains hard to peg. Beyond the Orioles and Rockies, Heyman says, “a couple more opportunities may have cropped up” of late.
  • It seems unlikely that the Blue Jays will punt a pick to sign Jose Bautista (which they’d technically be doing, as they’d no longer be in line for the comp pick they stand to gain when he signs elsewhere), he adds, even if he’s now available on a one-year pact. Toronto does need to make some outfield additions, though, and Heyman writes that the club has kept tabs on free agents Michael Saunders and Brandon Moss, along with “many others.” The Orioles are also said to have interest in Saunders, as has been suggested previously, and Heyman suggests that the Phillies — who’d prefer to add a lefty bat — have some interest in Moss.
  • Mike Napoli was said to be seeking a three-year deal earlier this winter, but this report now indicates that he’s seeking a two-year contract, which seems quite a bit more plausible. The Rangers are reportedly a “strong possibility” for Napoli, though Heyman notes the possibility of the ever-popular “mystery team” in Napoli’s market, suggesting that Napoli has at least one suitor that has yet to be linked to him publicly.
  • While the Dodgers are willing to give up Jose De Leon in a trade that would net them Brian Dozier from the Twins, they’re not willing to include first base prospect Cody Bellinger or well-regarded right-handed pitching prospects Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler alongside De Leon. Heyman writes that some clubs feel the Dodgers are being “stingy” with their prospects and overvaluing their minor league talent, though as he points out, that approach worked to their benefit with regards to Corey Seager and Julio Urias (although none of the names listed are as well-regarded as that pair was).
  • In addition to Jered Weaver, veteran right-handers Jake Peavy and Colby Lewis are on the Padres’ radar. Peavy would love the opportunity to return to San Diego, where he established himself as a star and won the 2007 National League Cy Young Award. I’ll point out that Lewis, too, has some connections to the Padres, as GM A.J. Preller was in the Rangers’ front office when Lewis returned from Japan and cemented himself as a Major League-caliber arm.

West Notes: Henderson Alvarez, Yadier Alvarez, Tolleson, Dyson

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The MRI results on the shoulder of Athletics righty Henderson Alvarez were inconclusive, manager Bob Melvin told reports, including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links). They’ll be sent for a closer look by Dr. James Andrews, who performed his surgery. As things stand, then, it’s largely unknown when Alvarez will be able to re-start his rehab process and begin working back toward the big league hill.

Here are a few more notes from out west:

  • Dodgers righty Yadier Alvarez is looking good at extended Spring Training, per a recent scouting report from new Fangraphs prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. The review was glowing, with Longenhagen calling Alvarez one of the game’s most exciting pitching prospects on the basis of his athleticism, smooth mechanics, and high-octane stuff. You’ll want to give the write-up a full read for all the details, but it sounds as if the Dodgers have reason to like their big investment.
  • The Rangers have formally moved Shawn Tolleson out of the closer role after his rough outing last night, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram was among those to report (Twitter links) Tolleson currently owns a 9.20 ERA and has blown three of his last five save opportunities.
  • It appears that Sam Dyson will be first in line to take a shot at locking down the 9th inning for the Rangers, though it’s unclear how long a leash he’ll have. He’s worked to a 1.43 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in 50 1/3 innings for the Rangers since coming over rather quietly in a trade last summer. With the chance to pad his resume with some saves, he could be in line for a nice payday this winter, when he’ll likely qualify for Super Two status after entering the season with 1.142 years of service on his ledger.

International Notes: Eddy Julio Martinez, Yadier Alvarez

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Here’s the latest on some high-profile international talent from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez…

  • The Reds have a workout scheduled with Cuban outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez tomorrow in the Dominican Republic, Sanchez tweets.  The Giants are also “still in [the] mix” to sign the 20-year-old.  There hasn’t been much news on Martinez since early July, though he’d worked out for at least six teams and drawn interest from several more.  The highly-touted Martinez is expected to command at least a $10MM signing bonus, so if Cincinnati were to sign him, the Reds would far exceed their current international bonus pool and be limited to $300K-or-less signings in each of the next two international signing periods.  San Francisco, meanwhile, has already exceeded its 2015-16 pool limit so the Giants could decide to load up on international talent now since they face restrictions from 2016-18.
  • Yadier Alvarez’s $16MM bonus from the Dodgers is thus far the biggest bonus of the 2015-16 international class.  Sanchez checks in with the 19-year-old Cuban righty to see how he’s adjusting to life at the Dodgers’ Dominican academy, as well as the challenges Alvarez faced in finding a trainer after leaving Cuba.
  • Also from that piece, Sanchez notes that Enrique Estrada, another Cuban teenage pitcher, has left the island and recently established residence in Haiti.  Estrada “has a history of success in Cuba” but it isn’t know when he’ll be cleared to sign with an MLB team.  He’s still weeks away from showcases and Sanchez notes that Estrada is still “an unknown in some Major League circles.”

Dodgers To Sign Yadier Alvarez, Other Top International Prospects

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The Dodgers have indeed agreed upon a $16MM bonus with Cuban right-hander Yadier Alvarez, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports (links to Twitter). That is expected to be the single largest payout given a single player on this year’s international market and is the second-largest bonus ever given to an international amateur, trailing only Yoan Moncada’s $31.5MM bonus with the Red Sox. Alvarez is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council and Rick Thurman, Rafael Nieves and Nelson Montes.

Alvarez popped onto the scene earlier this year with a big fastball and exciting slider. He has drawn some mixed reviews, but obviously the Dodgers are believers. The opportunity to sign Alvarez, among other players, was cited as a primary reason that the organization declined to top the Red Sox’ offer for Yoan Moncada this spring.

In the eyes of Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs, Alvarez was the best player available on the basis of his mid-to-upper nineties heater, plus slider, and promising change. He also possesses good athleticism and good overall physical tools, leading McDaniel to believe that he has a good chance of harnessing his stuff. Ben Badler of Baseball America expresses more concern with Alvarez’s lack of a track record and current tendency toward being wild, explaining that there is plenty of risk to go with the obvious upside.

Los Angeles has also agreed with outfielder Starling Heredia on a $2.6MM bonus and with infielder Ronny Brito on a $2MM bonus, per Sanchez. Those players, both hailing from the Dominican Republic, also rated amongst the thirty best international prospects available according to most analysts. MLB.com placed Heredia fifth on its list, citing his “raw power and projectable body.” McDaniel had Brito in the 15th place on his board, noting that he has the upside to develop into a prospect on the order of J.P. Crawford if he can pair a useful bat with good speed and fielding ability.

With just these three signings alone, Los Angeles will easily land well over its fairly meager international spending allocation of $2,020,300. Every dollar spent above that mark will be taxed at a 100% rate, meaning the Dodgers are already nearing $40MM in total obligations.

2015-16 International Signing Period Now Open

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Today marks the opening of the 2015-16 international signing period, during which so-called “July 2” prospects can begin inking deals with MLB clubs. Every MLB team has been allocated a series of bonus slots, all of which may be traded, with certain restrictions. Baseball America provides a tally of each team’s total available pool this year. Clubs that spend over their allotment face escalating penalties, ranging from 100% taxes on overages to a two-year ban on $300K+ international bonuses (for going over 15% above the total allocation). This year, the team with the top overall pool allocation — the Diamondbacks ($5,393,900) — is ineligible to spend more than that amount on any single player, and is expected to deal away some of its capacity since it cannot put it to full use. Likewise, the Angels, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees face that limitation due to budget-busting deals in the 2014-15 July 2 period. And numerous additional clubs are expected to incur future signing limitations in the coming signing period. While most of the players subject to the signing rules are a long ways away from the big leagues, there are undoubtedly impact players among them — some of whom could come up in trade talks long before they’re close to the majors.

Here’s the latest on the market, which will gear up quickly, as well as some key resources to get acquainted with:

  • As has been widely expected — and as Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs reported several months back — the Dodgers are set to sign Cuban righty Yadier Alvarez to a $16MM bonus, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports (Twitter links). Passan does caution that it’s best to wait until Alvarez formally signs to declare his market closed. Los Angeles has just over $2MM in spending capacity, meaning that it would start off with a $14MM overage tax on its bill and take on a two-year signing ban for adding Alvarez alone.
  • MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez just provided one major market shift, reporting that the Giants appear to be in the lead for shortstop Lucius Fox, who landed third overall on Sanchez’s list of the thirty best international prospects available on the market.
  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler provides his final top-thirty prospect list, with detailed scouting reports on all those players ranked as well as notes on the teams favored to sign them. He also breaks down each MLB team’s expected overall approach heading into July 2.
  • Likewise, McDaniel has produced his final pre-signing board, which also includes his own assessments of many of the most highly-regarded names and projections of their landing spots. While Badler rates Vladimir Guerrero Jr. first overall, McDaniel places him fourth, giving the top spot to the aforementioned Alvarez.

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