New Possible Zito Scenario

Just got a note from my Mets source on a possible Barry Zito trade scenario.  Here's how this could play out:

The Orioles still have some interest in Kris Benson; VP Jim Duquette likes him.  Benson would be dealt to the O's for young players of Billy Beane's choice.

Victor Diaz would be shipped off by the Mets as well, but again for prospects coveted by Oakland.  The A's don't have room for Diaz given their glut of 1B/DH/OF types.  The prospects from both deals would then be packaged with Aaron Heilman and the Mets would receive Zito.

The Mets would likely sign Jeff DaVanon to platoon in right field with Xavier Nady to complement this trade.  The switch-hitting DaVanon didn't do much with righties this year, but posted an .824 OPS against them in 2004.  Nady has a career line of .323/.400/.452 in 124 at-bats versus southpaws.   So keep an eye out for a DaVanon signing and Benson trade, because that could spell a Zito deal.

Comments

[James]

Why any team would mortgage their future, even the Mets, to rent Zito for a season is beyond me.

[RumorMonger]

Well, they'd probably try to get at least a verbal agreement regarding a long-term deal before pulling the trigger.

[Erikfromdabronx]

Makes sense, especially with the Iriki signing.

Boy, the Mets just keep trading away all their "excess" young talent. Milledge, Pelfrey and Humber will be all that's left.

[Erikfromdabronx]

Well, they'd probably try to get at least a verbal agreement regarding a long-term deal before pulling the trigger.

Salary doesn't matter, so long as Benson is traded. The Mets are losing yet another round of bad contracts next year, so if Zito wants 13M per, he would likely get it. (whether Zito deserves it or not is another matter)

[Eddie]

So let me get this straight, the Mets trade Kris Benson, Victor Diaz, and Aaron Heilman FOR Barry Zito? We all know Zito is a FA, and wants to reunite with Peterson right? I know we all think Mets are the favorite to sign him next year, but imagine if they didnt, no imagine if they made this deal and they didnt...scary thought

[Erikfromdabronx]

Obviously, Omar doesn't make these moves without assurances from Beane and Zito that an extension window be guaranteed.

Still, I don't reallly like this move. Sincerely!

[Zonis]

No Milledge? I don't know. Sounds like yet another bogus rumor, or trade that will fall through.

What do the Orioles have that the A's want? Penn? Maine? They are decent but not great pitching prospects. They do have that outfielder, Markakis but I don't think the O's would give him up. What would Diaz land?

And the more I think about it, the more I don't think the A's NEED Aaron Heilman. The A's have a glut of relievers/starters who are just like Heilman. Unless the A's get a first rate SP prospect back, or Dan Meyer is ready to play after all, then I just do not see a Zito trade happening.

The A's need one piece to complete their team at most-a power bat to play vs RHP. If they get that, they can platoon Kielty and PlayerX at DH and make a two-headed DH if they need be. That, or they can trade for a power corner outfielder to replace Payton.

Either way, it just seems less and less likely Zito will be traded. There is no reason to trade him anymore with out getting very good, blue chip prospect(s) in return.

[Erikfromdabronx]

"No Milledge? I don't know. Sounds like yet another bogus rumor, or trade that will fall through."

I would absolutely refuse to trade Milledge unless it's for a dominant player in his prime. Zito is not a dominant player... not by a long shot.

"The A's have a glut of relievers/starters who are just like Heilman."

Like? Huston Street? Danny Haren? *scoffs*

"Either way, it just seems less and less likely Zito will be traded. There is no reason to trade him anymore with out getting very good, blue chip prospect(s) in return."

Agreed. I hope Beane just keeps him so the Mets can snag him in the offseason and the A's can get picks.

[Jack]

Pass

[xxx]

I'm not sure if the prospects the Orioles would have to give up to get Benson/Diaz would be enough to get Zito from the A's. I suppose it comes down to how much Oakland covets Heilman in a way. I think you gotta remember that Billy Beane is in a clear position of strength here - he doesn't have to move Zito unless his needs are met. I can only imagine what that will mean when it actually comes down to sorting out the prospects Oakland winds up with - if there is ever a time to avoid dealing with Beane, it is when he is holding all the cards (suppose that is true of any somewhat decent GM though).

[MetsWillFail]

This trade ain't happening. They only way this works is if New York sends two top prospects over to Oakland for Zito. I'm talking Heilman AND Milledge or another top pitching prospect. The A's are essentially complete to compete for the World Series this year if they keep Zito, they'd need to be sold on getting one in a couple years time to give him up.

[Zonis]

Erikfromdabronx, no not Street or Haren, both of them are much better then Heilman. Lets put it this way, look at the A's current bullpen, and tell me which guy you would kick off to replace with Heilman.

Huston Street
Justin Duchscherer
Kiko Calero
Jay Witasick
Joe Kennedy
Kirk Saarloos
Jairo Garcia

AAA:
Juan Cruz
Chad Gaudin
Matt Roney
John Rhienecker
Dan Meyer
Shane Komine
Shawn Kohn
Ron Flores

Of that MLB bullpen, I can only see Heilman one of two players: Joe Kennedy (the A's lone bullpen lefty) and Jay Witasick.

But Kennedy is a longman/backup 5th starter and Witasick is Middle Relief. The A's already have Calero/Duke/Street for the 7th/8th/9th. Saarloos was the A's 5th starter last year, and could be added to that list as well.

So yes, the A's have a glut of pitching depth, and while Heilman might help a little, he wouldn't be the answer the A's would be looking for.

The A's would want a top SP prospect with lots of service time left, a good hitting prospect, and either another prospect or a good reliever. The thing is, the reliever is an after thought almost, because he would not be needed that badly.

Just remember this, this was what the A's got in the Hudson and Mulder trades at the time of the trade.

From ATL for Hudson:
LHP Dan Meyer:
2.79 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 8.80 K/9 (AAA)
2.22 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 11.91 K/9 (AA)

RHP Juan Cruz:
2.75 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.75 K/9 (MLB)

CF Charles Thomas:
.288/.368/.445/.813 (MLB)
.358/.416/.535/.951 (AAA)

From STL for Mulder:
RHP Dan Haren
4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.26 K/9 (MLB)
4.15 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10.55 K/9 (AAA)

RHP Kiko Calero
2.78 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 9.33 K/9 (MLB)
2.49 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 11.72 (AAA)

C/1B Daric Barton
.313..445..511/.956 (A)

In this trade, Heilman would fill the role of the Juan Cruz/Kiko Calero player, given his service time and history.

So I still believe that the trade would have to be:

SP Prospect
Milledge
Heilman

[Erikfromdabronx]

"I'm talking Heilman AND Milledge"

Then, simply, the deal will never happen. Even Minaya isn't that stupid...

Zito simply isn't worth that much. Maybe in this fantasy world where Kevin Millwood gets paid like Pedro Martinez, but not in my universe.

Beane will likely keep Zito and get his draft picks. That's my prediction.

[Erikfromdabronx]

"Erikfromdabronx, no not Street or Haren, both of them are much better then Heilman."

Heilman had a 0.68 ERA post all-star with a .175 BAA, 1 HR and 45 K's in 40 IP. It's certainly debatable whether he could be as effective as Haren as a starter, but there is no doubt Heilman is at least Street's equal in the pen.

"So I still believe that the trade would have to be"
The trade dies once Milledge's name is included. Minaya said Lastings is part of the "Wright, Reyes" core of the team. I guess the A's will just have to find some other team to overpay or settle for draft picks.

[Nick]

Erik,

You need to look at Street again. Heilman was a 26 year old in his 3rd ML season. His previous 2 were pretty ineffective. Overall, his e.r.a. last year was 3.17 (ERA+ of 132), and his WHIP was 1.148 -- good, but not spectacular. We're looking at a 3rd-year pitcher in his physical prime who pitched great for 40 innings. That's just not incredibly rare.

Street as a 21 year old had a 1.72 e.r.a. in 78 innings -- an ERA+ of 261, with 3 HRs for the entire season and a 72/26 K/BB ratio, and a WHIP of 1.009. So Street was at least as effective as Heilman over nearly twice as many innings in a tougher context for pitchers -- and is 5 years younger.

So how is there "no doubt Heilman is Street's equal in the 'pen?"

[Mark Healey]

I can tell you all that the chances of this deal happening at this point are quite slim.

[Erikfromdabronx]

"You need to look at Street again. Heilman was a 26 year old in his 3rd ML season. His previous 2 were pretty ineffective."

For reasons you couldn't possibly understand unless you are a scout. To keep it short, his motion was altered when he came out of college and it affected his movement. He changed back to his college motion during Spring Training and... Voila. He can also start, as evidenced by his CG no-hitter (damn Cairo) against the Marlins. That's something Street cannot do.

"Overall, his e.r.a. last year was 3.17 (ERA+ of 132), and his WHIP was 1.148 -- good, but not spectacular."

Meh. Those ARE the numbers, but numbers don't provide context. He made several starts and was less effective in that role. Thus, his ERA was inflated.

I think the comparison is very apt, regardless of the overrated ROY award.

[DrBox]

How is a pitcher under contract for 1 year worth Billy Beane's choice of top prospects from 2 organizations?
This is preposterous.

[dan]

i dun see this one happening

[Cubs4ever]

No way Zito is going to be traded to the Cubbies we have way more young arms that the A's want to have so just wait you will definitely see Zito in a Cubbie uniform

[Erikfromdabronx]

That's fine with me. I'd love to see the Cubs overpay for Zito. As long as he doesn't join the NL East or the Yanks, I couldn't care less.

[junbun]

overpay? define that. i don't think a package of hill/williams is overpaying.. and that might be enough to get it done. as long as the cubs can get him to a long term contract i don't see any reason why they shouldn't try to bring him in for a couple of prospects. after all, hill is already 26 and only a year younger than zito. is he really going to be that much better?

[Erikfromdabronx]

"i don't think a package of hill/williams is overpaying"

The way I see it...
$$$+Prospects=Overpaying

I don't mind if the Mets get him, but i'm only for it if the price is right.

Milledge and Heilman would get a stout laugh and Beane would then hear nothing but a dial tone if I was GM. (pardon the hyperbole)

No way Zito accepts less than 13M per after seeing Burnett and Millwood pull down "Pedro Martinez" money.

As far as the Cubs are concerned, trading two prospects and not signing him would be a monstrous gaffe. Besides, Zito doesn't guarantee anyone a damn thing. We're not talking Oswalt, Santana or Peavy here. Zito's, at best a #2 on a solid staff (Mets) and a #3 on a stacked one. (Cubs)

Ya'll really want Hendry to pay this guy that much? I'd rather lock up D-Lee and Zambrano, myself.

[Erikfromdabronx]

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-spmets0121,0,2428445.story?coll=ny-sports-headlines

IT BEGINS!!!

Benson for Julio. What THEE FUNK?!

[Bobby]

but there is no doubt Heilman is at least Street's equal in the pen.

LOL! That might be the funniest baseball related statement I've ever heard.

[Erikfromdabronx]

Now, i'm getting corroborating evidence. It seems a guy who attended a meeting in NYC with a bunch of scouts is saying that a deal is pending is pending. The only reason the deal hasn't been announced is because the Benson deal (and a contract, apparently) has yet to be finalized. No particulars, but the guy has predicted trades in the past on the FAN. (like the Delgado and Seo deals)

We shall see.

[Bobby]

I bet the A's are going to jump all over a Julio for Zito offer.

[Erikfromdabronx]

The deal clears salary and nets Julio and a Top Prospect.

[Erikfromdabronx]

Word has it that the Mets are also getting prospect Adam Loewen.

[junbun]

WOW... the deal is starting to make a little more sense...loewen would be considered a top prospect..

looks like hendry swung and missed.

[junbun]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/05top10s/orioles.html

this has loewen as the #2 prospect ABOVE henn...

[Mark]

Here you all go again making drama. There is no three way trade. The Mets will exchange Benson and his angry wife to Baltimore for Jorge Julio and a mid-level prospect. The trade offer will be rejected by Angelos if they are forced into offering a top-prospect.

[Dan]

Well, Benson just got traded for John Maine and Julio according to the Orioles Hangout.

[Dan]

Well, Benson just got traded for John Maine and Julio according to the Orioles Hangout.

[chitown77]

Most of you guys here seem like smart fans. i just started a board with a forum for every major league team. Join up if you'd like.

http://s15.invisionfree.com/Pro_Baseball_Daily/index.php

[Brian]

Benson has been traded for Julio and John Maine.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29554

Heilman to the rotation.

[Erikfromdabronx]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/story/384483p-326332c.html

Mets eye DaVanon

The Dominoes are falling into place. Meh...

[Bobby]

So you guys really think Beane will trade Zito for John Maine,who would be the A's 7th or 8th starter even without Zito, Aaron Heilman, who would be the 6th or 7th inning guy, and a prospect from a Victor Diaz trade who would probably fall between 8 and 10 in the A's not so stacked system?

For some reason, I don't.

[dj steve]

no trade...i agree! don't do it..mets!

[Erikfromdabronx]

"So you guys really think Beane will trade Zito"

Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn. I'm just giving ya'll the scoop.

[A-ROD]

Erikfromdabronx

I thought you were half Yankee!!!

Don't worry,
if the Mets do trade for Zito, we can see whether the New York atmosphere is to much for him...if he holds up mentally then come free agency, were he will be donning the pinstripes

[Dan]

If he does well with the Mets, the Yanks would be stupid to give him the money that he's going to get.

[Erikfromdabronx]

Exactly. The Yankees only sign OLD pitching, as opposed to the younger, less aged variety.

[basebala123]

Is it possible that Julio stays with the Mets to replace Heilman?
Heilman+Top Prospect may net zito.

[A-ROD]

Zito though is a former Cy Young winner, that alone will make the Boss salivate over aquiring another star

[Zonis]

Newsday is reporting that the Mets have traded Kris Benson to the Orioles for Jorge Julio and fellow right-hander John Maine.
Still a poor trade for the Mets. Maine gives the team some additional insurance in case Aaron Heilman isn't ready to start, but he's probably nothing more than a fifth starter. Mets fans will have to hope Rick Peterson can do better with Julio than Ray Miller did. If not -- and if GM Omar Minaya doesn't have some big plans for the additional cash -- this is a disaster.

[Brian]

Olney just reported that he expects Weaver to be signed by the Mets for a 1 year deal by Monday.

So the Mets get Weaver, the same pitcher as Benson, for 1 less year than benson has on his deal, plus get Julio and Maine. Very smart deal by Minaya.

[Jason]

As a Phillies phan, I am very excited that Jorge Julio and his 5.90 ERA & 1.40 WHIP are coming to the NL East.