Cubs Still Looking At Soriano?

An emailer tells me that AM 670 The Score in Chicago reported yesterday that the Cubs are looking at Alfonso Soriano again.  They're hoping that Brian Dopirak or Brandon Sing put up big numbers in Spring Training to boost their trade value.  There's nothing on Score reporter George Ofman's blog to this effect yet.

Currently, Dopirak is 5 for 9 with two home runs this spring.  Sing is 4 for 7 with two homers.  Logically, the trade rumor makes some sense for the Nationals.  Nick Johnson is an impending free agent, so it'd be nice to have some depth at first base in a barren farm system.  Dopirak took a step backward in high A ball last year, hitting .235/.289/.381 in 507 ABs.  He's 22 years old.  Sing is 25 and was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft this year after hitting .276/.404/.538 in Double A.

In Soriano, the Cubs would be adding their fourth second baseman.  Soriano has a career line of .280/.320/.500 for New York and Texas.  He's 28 and will be a free agent after 2006.

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Comments

[Andrew]

Monger, I command you to stop this now. I want no more rumors about the Cubs being interested in Soriano. None, ya hear?

I want more rumors on Hendry trading for Cabrera. Please your readers, man.

[RumorMonger]

My bad...the Cubs are working on a trade to import Willis, Cabrera, Rod Carew, and 1985-era Doc Gooden somehow.

[Dave]

Thank you monger.

As for Soriano...so much for needing a defensive 2nd baseman. What happened to small ball?

No way this happens.

[RumorMonger]

If the Cubs are looking for defense I don't know why they traded for Juan Pierre to man CF.

[azruavatar]

The reason I am skeptical of this (although as a Cards fan would love to see him patrolling second) is that Dusty has this unnatural love relationship with Nefei Perez and Hariston. If they were looking to have an offensive second basemen they wouldn't be trying to trade Todd Walker who is obviously their best offensive 2b.

I dont know how much id give up to get Soriano. He will most likely be a 1 year rent-a-player. He wans to be back in the American League. What do you think could get this deal done? Im still not sold on bringing Soriano to chicago. It all has to do with who we would have to part with.

[Andrew]

Thanks, Monger, that second rumor makes me feel much more at ease.

The only thing we need(ed) more than defense was a leadoff man. Hence, Juan Pierre.

[The Informer]

You could give up Murton and Sing for Soriano. That would make Jerry Hairston your Left Fielder till Pie is ready. Hairston looks attractive in that No. 2 spot in the batting order and hes speedy. Another deal would have to follow about getting another bak up infielder. or maybe See if Pokey Reese is interested.

[Randy]

I believe it. The cubs have a new defensive scheme this year.

aram,cedeno,perez,lee,walker,hairston and soriano in the infield.

They figure they have strikeout pitchers so one outfielder will be sufficient - thus Pierre to cover the ground.

And, they'll have 4 relay men to make up for his arm.

It could work as well as the college of coaches.

[Elias]

Soriano turned 30 on January 7.

[RumorMonger]

Oh. Baseball Cube had the wrong birthday, probably from before it was changed.

[Erik]

Do GM's use figures like WARP and other matrices or do they base their decisions on some proprietary data?

See, I can't understand why players like Juan Pierre and Carlos Beltran are so overrated and/or overpaid. I suppose this has to do with marginal win-shares... ah... i've got nothin.

[Andrew]

Good one, Informer. We'll just trade our young, cheap starting left fielder and the young, cheap, and second best 1st baseman in the system for one year of an aging, overrated, defensively horrible 2nd baseman with an attitude problem and a talent for making money off the name value he "earned" from a Yankees team years ago. Good plan buddy.

Maddux wont make 10 million after this season. Id rather see them trade away the farm for Cabrera. Wood has an option that the cubs will probably not bring him back. it depends on how he does this season. So theres another 13 million. The cubs could afford Soriano if they really wanted to. I dont think they want to go that direction. I do however think that Cabrera makes sense and yes i would trade away our cheap left fielder in Murton and Pie and more prospects as well. This Guy Cabrera is also young and will help this team alot. So yes id give away alot to get Cabrera.

[shawndgoldman]

If the Cubs do get Soriano (i'm hoping they don't), i could see them trying to move both Hairston AND Walker. Hairston would be a nice fit in FLA, where they currently have a hole at 2B, as he doesn't cost much. Where would Walker go? Who knows - preferably an AL team that could use a 2B/1B/DH offensive-minded type.

[Devlsh]

If the Cubs DO get Soriano, they could let the grass grow up to about knee level to help his defense....

[Ryan]

What surprises me is that nobody has bothered to mention just how incredibly reliable the Score is...biggest waste of space on all of AM radio, IMO.

While Pierre is an overrated defensive player, he is one of the better lead-off hitters in all of baseball. He was also readily available. Throw in the fact that Pie simply isn't ready yet, and that ole K-Pat had to go, and trading for Pierre makes sense, even though he has a worse arm than Damon.

Trading for Soriano, on the other hand, would be simply asinine. They have 3 men fighting for a spot at second already, and all three of them can boast better defense and a better or similar OBP. While neither Perez nor Walker nor Hairston has Soriano's raw power, none of them have his salary, either.

[JK47]

I'd rather have Walker on my team than Soriano. Soriano had some monster seasons with the Yankees but he has been phoning it in since the trade to Texas. His numbers look decent because they are inflated by playing in a bandbox.

Soriano has had exactly two good seasons: 2002 and 2003. The last two years he has been around average as an offensive player, and of course kills you with the glove.

Walker has actually been a better hitter than Soriano over the last two years, according to OPS+. And he's not as bad with the glove. The Cubs could not possibly be stupid enough to give up something of value for Soriano when they already have other options at 2B.

I'd like to see Soriano go to the Braves, because I'm a Mets fan.

[tom]

though statistics aren't the best measure of a defensive player, soriano and walker are comparable defensively.

soriano is also a fairly legimate 30-30 man, and there aren't many second basemen that qualify in that regard.

in my opinion, we'd be better off having murton in the 2 spot and soriano in the 5 spot, than what we have now in walker in the 2-spot and probably jones hitting 5th.

we already have one unhappy, below average defensive second baseman. to me, we can get another one who improves our daily lineup, and all we have to give up is a minor league 1st baseman who, while talented, will never sniff a chicago uniform if lee is extended. if murton isincluded, then i hang up the phone--i really like murton's potential.

and fwiw, i think any deal involving soriano to the cubs would involve walker, either separate or included, as there would be no room for both. hairtson should stay because he is so versatile, and neifi will stay because he's ronny insurance.

anyways, thats my take. i guess i'll have to be on my own on this one.

i still think a 3-way deal including the reds and willy mo pena makes more sense, as the nats need an outfielder, and i don't see hendry trading murton (cause then we'd need a left fielder).

[Dave]

Soriano to the Cubs wouldn't involve either walker or hairston. The whole reason Soriano is available is because the Nats have the same overcrowding problem the Cubs do. It would have to include a 3rd team, like the Marlins:)to make a deal involving Soriano, Walker and Cabrera happen. Oops, did I say Cabrera?

[Teetz]

Wouldn't mind grabbing Soriano if it just involved Sing and a low level prospect. Depends on how desperate the Nationals are. Sing doesn't have much of a future with the Cubs. 1B is locked up for the long term with Lee and no DH in the National League.

Soriano is everything that's wrong with approaches to hitting, but the guy will slug over .500 and create runs on the base paths so it might be a better option than what we have.

Because, let's be realistic...Walker's knee probably won't hold up for a whole season. Technically it would be Walker/Hairston vs. Soriano, and I think I would take my chances with a higher ceiling guy. Nothing really to lose.

[OK?]

Lets go get Ryan Freel then... geez

[Ryan]

Except for the fact that we'd be trading a valuable minor leaguer who could be used in a different deal to get a selfish rent-a-player who butchers second base. No thank you.

I can't stress how futile and stupid it would be for the Cubs to get Soriano. Especially when we can have a better defensive second baseman with a much better OBP in Hairston. Paying money and trading a prospect for Soriano would be insanely stupid.

[Devin]

well If I was the cubs GM I would gladly give up Dopirak for Soriano. Obviously it would take more then that but Dopirak likely is not gonna turn into a major leaguer even on a different team. For a top prospect spending 3 seasons in A ball and now at 22 is not a good sign at all.

Trading Murton would just be plain stupid for the cubs. He's one of the main reasons the cubs have a chance to start turning it around. Finaly the cubs have acouple Position players comming outa their system that are ready to make an impact.

[Andrew]

Thank God some of you people aren't the Cubs' GM.

We have a lot to lose for gaining Soriano. $10 million dollars for one thing. A good prospect (no matter who it is, Sing, Dopirak, et al.) for another. Just because they are blocked by DLee doesn't mean they can't be traded to another team in a deal that actually helps us, such as Zito or Cabrera.

And that doesn't even get into what we'd get with Soriano. A troubled and troubling player that would kill the clubhouse. A butcher with the glove, who IS, actually, worse than Walker defensively. Far worse. And, most troubling of all, a .639 OPS outside of the band box that is Ameriquest Field. That isn't good, folks.

[Andrew]

And, Devin, as much as I agree with you on Murton's potential, he didn't come from the Cubs' system. They acquired him a year and a half ago in the Nomar deal.

Sometimes I wonder just how long some of you have been following the Cubs.

[Andrew]

And, Devin, as much as I agree with you on Murton's potential, he didn't come from the Cubs' system. They acquired him a year and a half ago in the Nomar deal.

Sometimes I wonder just how long some of you have been following the Cubs.

[Darin]

The Cubs don't need another second baseman....all they need is a healthy Kerry Woods and Mark Prior.

[Darin]

I meant "Wood" with no "s" at the end

[Kyle S]

How about this trade

Cubs get Soriano

Braves get Hairston(platoon LF)

Nats get Kelly Johnson, and 2 or 3 prospects from Cubs and one more prospect from Braves (or a little cash)

[Teetz]

Jerry Hairston has never slugged more than .400 in the majors. He is a career bench player. If you don't slug higher than .400, you better be blazing fast or have a sick OBP, or have it be the 1980's.

Soriano isn't anything special, but he is WAY better than Hairston and could at least slug at a high rate.

[RumorMonger]

And besides, what's with the Hairston OBP love?

He was at .336 last year, .334 for his career. That's about league average. Yeah, he's shown the potential to be in the .350-.370 range, but a lot of it is tied into HBPs. Big deal. He's a bench player.

[Teetz]

All in all, I have no problem with Todd Walker, but the Cubs seem to be convinced that his knee isn't 100%.

Also, whoever bitched about the Cubs losing out on 10 million.....the guy has a one year contract. His salary would not inhibit the addition of any other free agents this year (which is the ONLY reason any fan should be worried about the Tribune's pocketbook).

Where did the "Furcal Money" go? They raised ticket prices, added 2,000 more seats and the White Sox are going to have a higher team salary than us. It's a joke.

[RumorMonger]

If he were healthy, I'd rather bring in Craig Counsell to play second. Should be cheap in terms of acquisition cost and salary. He's basically Hairston with good defense.

[Andrew]

Hairston and 2 or 3 prospects to the Cubs for one year of Soriano? I bet Schuerholz would love that idea. Hell, Bowden would love it too.

While we're at it, let's make sure they get some bang for our buck. Let's send over Pie, Pawelek, and Guzman! Hell, include Marshall too. After all, we're getting 'Fonso Soriano, dude!!!!

[Teetz]

Pierre, Cedeno, Jones, Murton, Barrett

It's a safe bet that none of these guys will slug over .500. If we had gotten a power hitting outfielder, then I could deal with Hairston/Walker combo at 2B. Outfield is generally a great source to add power, but we are going into the season looking at maybe getting 40-50 homeruns out of all 3 outfield spots with an average slug of around .415-420, probably one of the weaker hitting outfields in baseball.

Our OBP as a team should go up, but it's like we're taking a step forward and taking another back by sacrificing so much power. I would rather roll the dice and get some good power numbers out of Soriano to get SOMETHING out of the 2B position rather than have Jerry "seeing eye single" Hairston playing every other day.

[Kyle]

Teetz then you really dont understand how baseball works. You dont win games by slugging the most home runs ask the Rangers. You win games by getting people on base and getting timely hits. Would you rather a home run with nobody on base or a single up the middle with runners on second and third

[Teetz]

Kyle, my post obviously went way over your head. I am specifically talking about one aspect of a team, individually, not as the end all be all. You win games by having a balanced team, OBP AND slugging percentage are both very important statistics, hence a recent emphasis on OPS. What does Jerry Hairston bring that tells you his OBP is going to be so much incredibly higher than Soriano?

[Kyle]

Both Hairston and Walker have higher average OBP than Soriano. Combine that with that they will save runs on defense too both are better options. Soriano is a very good player. But as a second baseman he is horrible. I realize you were being specific but I feel like the Cubs, although not great, are pretty evenly built they have power, on base, and some speed. Jones I feel was a bad signing but whatever

[Kyle]

And BTW the Chicago White Sox, who won the world series, got a total of 44 home runs from there entire outfield. Dye was the only person with a slugging percentage over 500.

[Ryan]

Teetz, Rumor: Hairston's OBP of .336 last year was higher than Soriano's. Take into account that he was supposedly only at 75% last year, and that he had trouble early on adjusting to the NL, and had his season cut short by an injury, and it makes me believe that, if given the playing time, he'd be at around .350-.360...That's about .50 higher than Soriano.

Now, take into account that, for the past 2 seasons, Soriano's stats away from Coors South have been very bad. He's clearly benefitted from playing at Ameriquest. He is overpaid, absolutely SUCKS as a defender, refuses to move to the outfield, and has made it clear that he wants to be in the AL. Let's just say that all of those things probably would hurt the Cubs. No concrete proof, but let's just say...

Now, take into consideration the thought that we're actually discussing weakening the team defensively and in regards to OBP in exchange for some long-balls, which has been an unsuccessful philosophy for the Cubs over the past few years AND that we'd be taking on his absurd salary AND giving up at least one valuable prospect who can be used in another trade to get Soriano...

To me, the obvious question isn't "Why do you want Hairston?" but rather "Why would I want Soriano on my team?"

[Jon]

Dopirak and Sing are having great springs--they may be increasing their value. Let's see what they're worth to OTHER clubs--don't want Soriano.

Our club is about as good as it's gonna get before opening day....let's just see how April goes before everyone gets their panties in a bunch.

[Ryan]

Jon: Agreed, re: Sing and Dopirak. Dopirak didn't have a good year last year, but he's still a valuable prospect. Sing is valuable, too. Plenty of teams *cough Oakland cough* would want a player like Sing, so even if we do lock D-Lee up soon, they can be traded for something of value *cough pretty much anything except Soriano cough*

[Teetz]

Hairston has a better OBP than Soriano, but since when is that the ONLY offensive statistic that matters anymore? Ok so Hairston will get beaned a few more times than Soriano will, then is hitting doubles, triples, and homeruns completely nullified by 30 more points in OBP? I don't think so.

BTW the slugging % of the White Sox outfield last year for their outfield was way higher than the projected Cubs outfield in '06.

Bill James and Moneyball brought OBP to the forefront, but I'm sure there intention was not to make that the only statistic of importance.

[Teetz]

Brandon Sing is 25 already and hasn't played above Double A. He has nice numbers in the minor leagues, but a couple of good spring training games and a double on national tv last Sunday doesn't make him the next Pujols. His value isn't as high as most of you think.

[tom]

from andrew: "A butcher with the glove, who IS, actually, worse than Walker defensively. Far worse."

What evidence, besides repeating what you have heard others say, support this claim?

Walker and Soriano have identical career lgFP (.981) as second basemen. They have nearly identical range factors, walker with 4.37, soriano with 4.70. Soriano had turned 100 double plays in a season twice, something Walker has never done.

So despite the fact that they are both below average defensively, they are equally below average. Soriano is a different hitter, but probably more valuable to us, since he hits like an outfielder, and out outfielders hit like infielders.

I am by no means clammoring for Soriano, but people on message moards tend to regurgitate what they've heard others say, and its not always accurate information that is being spread. I think Soriano would probably improve our daily lineup, and would be a wash defensively, and they are both unhappy in their current situations. To that end, I think it would be a solid move at the right price. Again, if Murton is part of that deal tehn the price is way too high.

[Jon]

Teetz--never said Sing would be Pujols, only said he is increasing his value. Never stated what his value was to begin with.

Bottom line is everyone is debating whether Soriano/Walker/Hairston is better--I'd say none get the Cubs to where they need to be.

Too much this year depends on ?s that won't be answered until we start playing ball in April.

Will Prior/Wood/Z be and stay healthy? How will Maddux's off season training program affect him? Will Pierre revert back to '04 numbers? Will Lee have as same/worse year? Will Aramis stay healthy and hit 30/.300? Will the bullpen prove Hendry didn't overpay?

Guess what--Soriano won't make this team much better and we won't know how good/bad they are until another few months.

[Ryan]

Teetz: I never once said that was the only stat that mattered. However, OBP is very important. OBP is a problem the Cubs have had the past couple of years. A higher team OBP is one of the needs the Cubs have. Getting Soriano does not help this need. Baseball fans as a whole seem to equate hitting for power with being a good player, and that's simply not how the game is won. Sadly, OBP is still generally underrated by the average baseball fan.

[hoagie]

As a Nationals fan, I dont see this trade making any sense. The Nationals have a "1st-baseman of the future" in AAA, Larry Broadway, who Frank Robinson said (today in the Washington Post) that he would feel comfortable bringing up if Johnson was injured. The last thing the Nats need is another utility player, as they might not even have room for Brendan Harris on the team. I don't see the Nationals giving up Soriano for anything besides pitching.

[Joseph]

wheather the cubs get soriano or not they will still be in 5th place................ the cubs will always be losers and im not just saying this because i am a sox fan but they are the worst profesional sports frachise in all of sports.................................. they will never win because they have bad carma>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> They even own there own broker!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!This year nobody will be able to stop the white sox because we will repeat as champions and what I could already tell is fastely becoming a sox town, will most definetely be one by season's end U CAN PUT THAT ON THE BOARD YESSSSSSSSSSSSS111111111111111111111111111

[Ryan]

With the last two comments, did it just get dumber in here?

[Ryan]

hoagie: That's a really good point. Looking at it from the Nationals' perspective--especially since they extended Johnson--they're probably looking for something of value for Soriano. There are probably a few teams that still value him as a "great" player because of his 30-30 ability and would probably give up something to help the Nationals.

Not only do they need to get something of value for their player, but they also need to justify trading Wilkerson and Sledge, either by playing Soriano or trading him for someone who can play on a daily basis.

[Rock Raines]

Geez, c'mon now, how about some love for Murton!! Can't understand why some are so quick to want to deal him. Am I the only one that's watched him play extensively, in the minors as well as majors? In practice before the games??

Look, I'm no major league player or scout, but I've followed baseball closely for many many years. I am telling you the closest thing to a sure bet you're going to find with the 2006 Cubs is that Matt Murton is the real deal. This kid can flat out PLAY. His only weakness is on defense, and even that has been overstated, he's no Jason Dubois out there. He just needs to improve his instincts as the bat comes off the ball, that'll come with experience.

Prediction: 148 games started, 590 PAs, .320/.390/.525 line, 21 HR, 90 RBI, 18 SBs. He'd be a runaway ROY if not for those few extra ABs late in September last year.

[RumorMonger]

Murton as the 20th best hitter in the game? A .915 OPS as a rookie? Over his last meaningful sample in Double A, he slugged .498...it would be pretty shocking to see him improve upon that in the Majors while barely slipping in OBP in year 1.

[Rock Raines]

His line last year in 140 ABs in the big leagues was 321/386/521, how is my prediction a stretch? I'm basically saying he can do that over the course of an entire season, and I think he will.

Even 300/370/470 would be terrific, and I think that's his DOWNSIDE. The kid can flat-out hit, RM.

The shocking thing to me is how in the hell the BoSox could have given up on Murton so quickly. Yeah, he'd be blocked by Manny, blah blah, but if you knew he was this talented--and many Boston followers did--how could you "throw him in" to the Nomar deal?

So the Cubs get Murton for an always-injured 4A prospect (Beltran), an always-injured 1A prospect (Jones), and a 4A-type utility infielder (Harris). This will end up being one of Hendry's best trades.

[RumorMonger]

It's a stretch to think that 140 ABs should overshadow his minor league record. His downside is a lot lower than an .840 OPS...I'd be cool with league average for a LF.