Carroll On Tejada-Astros Discussions

Baseball Prospectus author Will Carroll has opened up Will's Mill for the weekend, and he'll be burning up the phone lines fishing for all sorts of good trade rumors.

Today he mentions an offer Tim Purpura has given to the Orioles for Miguel Tejada: Adam Everett, Morgan Ensberg, and Fernando Nieve.  According to Carroll, Tim Purpura is focused on Tejada and is being urged by Roger Clemens to go get him.

In Everett, the Orioles would be acquiring the game's best defensive shortstop.  His hitting, at .241/.300/.327 this year, lags far behind the average AL shortstop.  The average AL shortstop is hitting .286/.342/.423, similar to the work of Eric Chavez or A.J. Pierzysnki this year.

On the 10th of June, Ensberg bruised his shoulder diving for a foul ball.  He was hitting .256/.380/.562 at that point, though he hadn't done much in May or June.  In Ensberg's 18 games after the shoulder bruise, he hit just .158/.422/.263.  He drew plenty of walks but the power that resulted in 36 HR last year had vanished.  Ensberg took live batting practice yesterday for the first time since being placed on the DL on July 10th. 

Nieve, 24, has a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider.  He was just sent down to Triple A a week ago because of Brandon Backe, but had been demoted to the bullpen upon Roger Clemens's return in late June.  It's just a 15 inning sample, but Nieve did pretty well as a reliever: 8.2 K/9, 2.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP.  As a starter he had a 5.6 K/9, 4.67 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP.  It is a fact that many pitchers add several miles per hour to their fastball by switching to relief, and Nieve's two plus pitches make it easy to envision him as a future closer or top set-up man. 

Comments

[Kramerica Industries]

"The Red Sox have been kicking the tires on a couple pitchers, notably Jon Lieber, but several executives think that Theo Epstein and the Sox braintrust are cooking up a multi-team deal. "Three, four, I don't know how many balls Theo can juggle," I was told. Complex deals are harder to complete, but don't be surprised to see the Sox in the middle of a series of exchanges."

When Theo came back he said he doesnt want any leaks and none are coming out very interested to see what they do

[astrosburner]

what exactly does Tejada's contract look like? Is he locked in for a few year's or is he eligible to become a FA once he's traded?

Please tell me if the Astros get him, they won't be renting for the rest of the season. I don't mind giving up Everett, Ensberg and Nieve if we can keep Tejada for a few...

[Blue]

The 'Stros should be sellers and focus on next year. But they won't. Can you imagine what Rocket and Petitte would bring this year? They could dominate the division for years with the haul those guys would bring.

[Rayman]

If the Astros can get some offense, they'll be right back in it. Why sell?

@astrosburner: Tejada is under contract for a couple of years, IIRC.

[Kramerica Industries]

arent you allowed to opt of a major contract (after one year) if traded in the middle.

[rdff41]

Well I would consider this a great deal or hugely idiotic one. Ensberg vs. Tejada in a side by side 2005 stat comparision shows Ensberg is better minus the strikeouts really. Not to mention if Tejada hates Houston he will demand a trade and make the clubhouse have lots of drama. I would love to get Tejada, but not at the expense of giving up a player that will either turn it around or be a flop.

[astrosfan13]

^^
You can demand a trade (and the team must trade you) after the season, but not opt out of the contract.

[Blue]

I say sell because with Berkman's groin problem, its still a major question whether they get to the playoffs even if they land Tejada, especially if they trade Ensberg to get him. Plus, Rocket and Petitte probably won't be around next year, and they'll have a tough time plugging their holes on the FA market. Oswalt, Hirsch, Pence, Ensberg, Berkman, and Huff are a very nice start, but you'll need more to win in the next few years. Trading Clemens and Petitte accomplishes that.

Kramerica, I think you can only demand a trade if you're traded in the middle of a multiyear deal. If your team can't trade you, you become a FA.

[rdff41]

Kramerica Industries I believe that is correct, but dont quote me.

[rdff41]

Well yeah I believe that they do become a FA, but that is when you can lure them back in with a new contract. Ala demand a new contract indirectly.

[Kramerica Industries]

astrosfan13 thanks i knew tehy could do something but i forgot

[ozziethesaint]

I would have to think that BALT could do much better than that for Miggy Tejada

[Blue]

Brew Crew Ball says the buzz is that the Brewers will announce another deal after tonight's game.

[dave]

Tejada is signed through 2009 for an average of about 13 mil per season.