RotoAuthority On Litsch, Bergmann
A couple of lesser knowns have had phenomenal starts recently, and fantasy leaguers are wondering whether they're for real. RotoAuthority has the details and recommendations on Jesse Litsch of the Blue Jays and Jason Bergmann of the Nationals.
Toss out his first start of the year (6BB in 3.2IP looks like an outlier to me given the rest of his work), and all of a sudden that WHIP goes below 1.40. Take into account the ballpark he plays in and the defense that's behind him and allofasudden, the WHIP might be down near 1.30.
I definitely agree that his hit rate is unsustainable, but I think people are focusing too much on that and missing what he's got behind him: without a doubt the best IF defense around, and with Langerhans and Church in the same OF, arguably the best defensive OF in the game.
No, he won't have a sub-.200 BABIP. But it will almost certainly be below average. Look at him for what he is: a guy better than replacement level playing in an excellent pitcher's park with an excellent defense. Oh, and so far he's King a TON of people.
Posted by: mraver | May 16, 2007 at 01:40 PM
But he won't even have a sub .250 BABIP. There's so much regression there. 7.7 K/9 is not a ton, either. Above average, but not a ton.
Taking a look at the Washington team BABIP, it's .281 this year after hovering around .300 the previous two. So the best predictor of Bergmann's BABIP is probably the team, so let's say .280 at best from here on out.
A low 1.30s WHIP is neutral in a 12 team mixed league, but useful in a deeper one or NL-only. I like Bergmann in NL-only but with wins hard to come by he's a bit of a stretch in most mixed leagues. Not that I wouldn't use a free pickup on the guy.
Posted by: RotoAuthority | May 16, 2007 at 02:47 PM