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« Jermaine Dye Signs Contract Extension | Main | Olney On Johan Santana »
Zambrano Contract Has Ripple Effect
Now that Carlos Zambrano is officially an $18MM a year pitcher - and the open market would've given him more - the future of other top starters is the hot topic of discussion. Even at a discount Zambrano's average annual value is the highest ever for a pitcher's multiyear contract.
We'll start with the best of the best, Johan Santana. We might as well get used to the Johan speculation, because it's going to be filling newspapers until he signs his next contract. As much as he'd like to stay, how can the Twins possibly sign him if the starting point is 5/90? The Seattle Times' Larry Stone dreams on the possibility of a Johan/Felix combo, but of course it'd require gutting the farm system (and Santana waiving his no-trade clause). Not enough talk about his NTC. Anyway, let's face it. Santana gives the Twins the best chance to win in 2008, so they'll keep him through the end of his contract. Minnesota's staff looks excellent for '08 with Francisco Liriano returning.
C.C. Sabathia also reaches free agency after the '08 season. The Indians haven't begun active negotiations with him, and Paul Hoynes believes he could only fit into the payroll if the Tribe goes deep into the postseason this year. Like Santana, the Indians would keep Sabathia through the end of his contract to try to win next year. Jon Garland, Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, and Ben Sheets are the other big names in the 2008-09 class.
Jake Peavy knows he won't get a fair offer from the Padres. He'll be a free agent after '09. Erik Bedard, Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey, and Brad Penny are all set to join his free agent class. I can see Bedard and Penny hitting the open market, while the Halo hurlers might sign extensions.
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Tim, don't you think it would actually be more beneficial for Minnesota to move Santana this offseason and hope for a Mulder type return? If they go into the 2008 season with Santana and are within shouting distance at the deadline, they'd be forced to either go for broke in 2008 (and accept only the 1st and comp) or sell right out of a pennant race. I'd argue it makes more sense (both baseball wise and fan relations wise) to make sure you get a massive return on him now and set yourself up for several years as opposed to making 2008 an all or nothing season.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | August 19, 2007 at 10:09 AM
Naturally here in NY all you here is how Santana always said he wanted to be in NY etc etc. I don't think Yanks would trade for him but would throw the world at him in 09 ( Santana, Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain not too shabby). But I think since Big Z is gone Minaya will bust a nut trying to get Santana in a trade before then and lock him up. Milledge, Humbar , Gotay, Maine might do it maybe add gomez if Minn tosses in something else? Too much to give up? Not enough?
Posted by: touchmymonkey | August 19, 2007 at 10:30 AM
My guess is they'll be listening and might jump if the offer is insane enough. It would be crazy not to.
As a DBack fan it's going to be fun watching teams way over pay for Livan Hernandez this offseason.
Posted by: tmar | August 19, 2007 at 10:32 AM
who is going to over pay for livan his prime is long past and now he just is an inning eater
Posted by: Barroid_Bonds | August 19, 2007 at 10:53 AM
If Santana does get traded to the mets it will be like a 7 player deal.
Twins get:
Lastings Milledge
Mike Pelfrey
Phillip Humber
Carlos Gomez
Ambiorix Burgos
and some infielder
Mets get:
Johan Santana
Lew Ford
Posted by: Barroid_Bonds | August 19, 2007 at 11:06 AM
"who is going to over pay for livan his prime is long past and now he just is an inning eater"
He's better than Weaver was last season, minus a few weeks with the Cardinals. Take a quick look at the list of FA pitchers this offseason and how many teams are looking for pitching.
Livan will get a 2/15 deal somewhere.
Posted by: tmar | August 19, 2007 at 11:24 AM
Weaver is the reason the Cardinals won the World Series and looking at the free agents there are lot better pitchers than Livan.
John Smoltz
Curt Schilling
Jason Jennings
Jake Westbrook
Freddy Garcia
Kenny Rogers
Bartolo Colon
Posted by: Barroid_Bonds | August 19, 2007 at 12:16 PM
B_Bonds,
Wow, looking at that list of FA pitchers, I am struck by the health problems all of them have had this season. I'd truly worry about signing ANY OF THEM to more than one year...and I'm not sure how much money I would devote from my payroll. This offseason the GM's are really going to earn their keep, especially since so many teams are going to come within a handful of games of the playoffs!
Posted by: gadamer | August 19, 2007 at 12:59 PM
Smoltz & Westbrook resigned awhile ago.
Posted by: WestCoastBias | August 19, 2007 at 01:21 PM
baltimore would be horribly stupid if they do not try to resign bvedard this offseason. even if it takes 16-17 mill a year for 5 years. he is one of the best young pitchers in the game and i would bet a lot that says he wins the cy young next year. if he hits free agency in 2 more years, he'll be getting a min of 20 mill a year
Posted by: jerseyballer | August 19, 2007 at 01:26 PM
B_Bonds I'm not saying Livan is that good (hence the "overpay" comment). But he is an OK #4 for a team with money and few options. He's pitched in an extreme batter's park this year and sports a .230 career BA along with over 6 IP/G.
He'll get in excess of 2yrs 15Mil from someone.
Posted by: tmar | August 19, 2007 at 01:51 PM
it would be a huge PR fallout if the Padres let Peavy walk, it would be like the 1998 offseason all over again.
Posted by: deadbeat17 | August 19, 2007 at 02:19 PM
Santana today. 8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 17 K's. Wow. I watched that game today it looked like Danny Almonte in the LLWS.
Posted by: nrmax88 | August 19, 2007 at 05:22 PM
Twins get
clay bucholz
jacoby ellsbury
justin masterson
lars anderson
michael bowden
daniel bard
red sox get santana
Posted by: theMATTador | August 19, 2007 at 05:45 PM
You know, there may be a lot of arm problems in the not-too-distant class of FA SPs, but as a group that's a much healthier stock than there have been between last offseason and the upcoming one.
I mean, if Barry Zito was a FA in one of these markets, he wouldn't have gotten nearly the contract he did.
Even if you assume that only Santana, Peavy, and three others mentioned (say Sabathia, Bedard, and Sheets) make their way onto the open market, that's still plenty of marks for those big market teams to set their sights on. I mean, who really believes that out of that group, the Yanks, Sox, and Mets won't all land someone? Ben Sheets could wind up being a fallback target for a big market team. And at the rate we're going Dontrelle Willis is going to be the one or two year "get my career back on track" contract.
Posted by: MEddler | August 19, 2007 at 05:53 PM
Danny Almonte only did good because he was 14 or 15 and the kids he were playing 12
Posted by: Barroid_Bonds | August 19, 2007 at 06:46 PM
and the way Santana pitched today, it looked like he was 14-15 pitching against 12 year olds, just flat out dominated.
Posted by: zs190 | August 19, 2007 at 06:52 PM
Im just saying its not a good comparison
Posted by: Barroid_Bonds | August 19, 2007 at 07:12 PM
It's a perfect comparison.
You just seem to not understand
Posted by: GoBoSox420 | August 19, 2007 at 08:10 PM
Johan should sign a 30 mil/year deal.
Posted by: Teetz | August 19, 2007 at 08:11 PM
Santana is the best pitcher in baseball but I'm actually not floored by his 17 strikeout game. The Rangers are a feast and famine team and if you look through their games a lot of pitchers have made them look bad. Mark Buehrle threw a no-hitter against them this year while not even cracking 90.
I wouldn't be surprised to see teams save their pennies for the real pitchers - enough of them will make it to the free agent market.
The thing about Hernandez, I don't think an AL team would take a chance on him. His stuff is simply too crappy. So that limits the amount of money he can make. I could see Oakland taking a shot at him with their pitcher-friendly park in hopes of peddling him for a nice return but I think after Estebum Loiaza and Mark Redman and seeing how Matt Morris ended up Beane may have learned a lesson about that, who knows.
Posted by: DentalPlan | August 20, 2007 at 06:56 AM
"Danny Almonte only did good because he was 14 or 15 and the kids he were playing 12 "
I know that Mr. Smarty pants. That wasnt even relevant to the point though.
Posted by: nrmax88 | August 20, 2007 at 01:33 PM
Thank you gobosox/zs for helping our new "special friend" barroid understand what I was trying to say, although I thought it was fairly obvious from the start.
Posted by: nrmax88 | August 20, 2007 at 01:35 PM