Cashman Takes Firm Stance On A-Rod

When we last heard from him eight days ago, Brian Cashman left himself some wiggle room to negotiate with Alex Rodriguez even if he opts out in November and the Yankees lose the Texas money.  The implication then was that higher-ranking club officials could overrule Cashman's recommendation.

Yesterday, after the Yankees' meeting of the minds in Tampa, Cashman took a firmer stance:

If Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract then we will not participate in free agency.  That is accurate and that is definitive.

Why this is being aired out in public I'm not sure, but at this point the Yankees will seem kind of stupid if they do negotiate with Rodriguez after he opts out.  It really seems that they're not kidding about not wanting to lose the Texas money or enter a bidding war.  Meanwhile Scott Boras just spent three full days convincing A-Rod to opt out.  However, Ken Davidoff believes that rather than opt out, A-Rod will sign an extension amounting to $297MM over nine seasons.

George King also revealed that Bobby Abreu's $16MM option is at the bottom of the queue.  The Yanks will make decisions on Joe Torre, A-Rod, Mariano Rivera, and Jorge Posada first.

Comments

[cubsbaseball]

I may be wrong about this, but I think the real problem with the Yankees is the total package of stars on the team. #1 player I would consider getting rid of is (yes) Derek Jeter. Not many players get along with him, including A-Rod, Posada, Giambi, and others.

[Not Joe Morgan]

Everything I've ever read has Jeter and Giambi quite close and I've never heard of a Posada/Jeter feud. I'd love to see you substantiate your claim.

(Starting to hold breath ... now)

[tyler]

Cubsbaseball - I normaly try to respect people's opinions and not judge... but that might be the single dumbest suggestion I have ever heard.

[achilles17]

Yeah, if you think the Yankees should get rid of Jeter, you know nothing about the Yankees.

The Yankees are saying this about Arod in public because if they get people to believe them, it will drive Arod's asking price down once he hits the open market, making him more likely to sign an extension. If Boras can't use the Yankees as a bargaining chip, he loses a lot of leverage, and Arod won't get as big of a contract. Or at least so Cashman hopes.

[Joey]

Jeter was the best man at Posada's wedding. Not sure what your talking about.

[MO Boiler]

Do they have a deadline on Abreu's extension?

[MO Boiler]

Do they have a deadline on Abreu's option?

[bobo]

Abreu has a regular team option. Of course there is some deadline, but I don't know what it is - is there a "standard" deadline?

On ARod, I like the strategy. It drives down his price, and also if he decides to opt out, the Yankees can move on immediately. They do have to stick to their word though.

I probably would have preferred if Cashman said something like this:

"If he opts out, our maximum offer to him as a FA will be equal to our offer for an extension minus $21M."

[Tim Dierkes]

Why would the Yankees want to drive down A-Rod's price? Why not stay in the bidding with zero intention of making a concrete offer, just to force the Red Sox to spend more?

[bjsguess]

This is putting the ball squarely back into Boras' court. Boras has talked about a 10/300 deal - hoping that teams will be lining up for A-Rod at this price. My guess is that he would be happy to extend A-Rod with a 7-$175 deal with opt outs if salaries get crazy. The Yankees are smart in sending the message that they don't want to commit that type of money to a single player. If the Yankees won't spend the money what team will?

Even at $25m how many teams can really afford him? I know Boras says every team can afford him but that simply isn't the case. I would guess that you are looking at teams with at least a $90m payroll. If the Yankees are out that would leave the BoSox, Angels, Mets, White Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Mets, Mariners, Cubs, Detroit, Baltimore and San Francisco.

Even these clubs with high salaries already, most would have to shed some contracts to free up money. I don't see the White Sox, for example, going from $110m to $140m. Most likely they would need to deal Konerko or Thome and Garland.

[bobo]

Tim -

Because they want to keep him. Agreed that IF he becomes a free agent it would be better for them if the signing team paid more.

But the idea is that with them not participating, the decreased FA market value would make him more likely to sign an extension with them.

[bobo]

I don't think the Yankees are trying to send the message that they won't spend the money. In fact (though there's no way of knowing), my guess is that he sends an extension with the Yankees for about what he would get as a FA.

They're just saying "we're going to make you a fair offer, we'll both benefit from the Texas money, and if you want to stay in NY, prove it."

[zs190]

Maybe my Yankees bias is clouding my judgement but I can't see how the Yankees would look foolish with this.

If I'm Boras, I know ARod is making a guaranteed 27 million a year for the next 3 years. This historic season and age being 32 is perfect for extension time that there is no way I pass up this chance to get a better contract for ARod. That said, I won't opt out unless I know for sure he's going to get more and there is no guarantees in an open bidding process.

I go whisper in the ears of executives with the high payrolls (Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Red Sox, Cubs, etc) and I try to extract an offer that's better than what ARod gets now, with more years and more money per year. Whether I get it or not, I hint to the Yankees that I've got a better offer and see if I can get the Yankees one-up that offer(if I have one) and sign an extension, depending on whether I get it, the extension amount varies.

If I have a solid offer, I ask the Yankees for more than that without telling them the exact value (I would shoot for the sky here with the safety net). If I don't have it, I ask for 27+Texas money/(3+years of extension), high enough increment that it's worth losing the future opt-outs, but small enough that Yankees can't afford to call you out on that bluff.

As a result, there are 3 scenarios that I can see:
1) I get an offer but get Yankees one-up on it, I win and Yankees keep ARod.
2) I get an offer but Yankees won't go above, ARod signs whichever team that made the best offer. I win, but not as big as 1.
3) I don't get an offer but get the Yankees extend ARod for minimal gain, small win for me as well.

Theoretically I can also not get an offer but Yankees won't even offer the minimal increase, resulting in ARod not opting out either because he can't get more money but I just don't see it happen, the Yankees will be willing to give him that extra money since you lose that much money if he leaves anyways, might as well give to him to keep him, wouldn't take that chance.

In any of the scenarios, I don't think Yankees would look bad, whether they keep him or let him go.

[bjsguess]

For what it's worth my money is on San Francisco, Baltimore, or the LA Angels.

San Fran already has the experience in dealing with a premiere player with unusual demands (like the ones A-Rod had when negotiating with Mets a few years back).

Angelos thinks he is always just one FA signing away from building a contendor. It would be a nice move to take from the rival Yankees.

The Angels need the offensive help. Just not sure they can justify paying Vlad half of what A-Rod will be making. They also aren't a club that likes to create special rules for different players.

On a side-note, the Angels have been linked to Bonds potentially on a one year deal. How different would an Angels team look with Bonds and A-Rod? Two huge headache guys but wow that would be an offense. Replace Willits and Hillenbrand with Rodriguez and Bonds.

[bjsguess]

zs190 - good analysis. I do think that the Yankees are in the driver seat.

The only part I question is what other teams would tell Boras. Having A-Rod sign for crazy money is harmful to all clubs. I wonder if they would low-ball him with offers like a 5/120. If they do that, then re-upping with the Yanks makes the most sense.

The other alternative is that a club (or clubs) say they are willing to do a 10/300 deal, A-Rod opts out and the club(s) dramatically lowers their offer. A-Rod at that point is already committed to FA and the options aren't as great as they thought they would be. That would be the ultimate way to stick it to Boras. I'm sure there are plenty of teams would like to jam him up.

[zs190]

That's probably the flaw in my analysis but he got it from Red Sox with JD Drew, I think if there are really teams that are going to pay ARod 30+ million/year, they'll probably show some intent to him, else there is a chance he doesn't hit the market.

Considering Boras isn't going away anytime soon, if I'm a front office executive, I would not deliberately make him mad by pulling the chair out from under him, there is no avoiding dealing with Boras clients for any team honestly. Sticking it to Boras makes your life as a GM/Front office executive miserable, you see JS/Philips come out now that they are no longer GMs, you don't do this if you are still the GM.

[bobo]

Agreed, there's no reason to mess with Boras.

I guess to sum up, my feeling is this: I think the Yankees will offer, with the Texas money, about what they think ARod will get as a FA, short of something crazy (SF giving him $400M over 10 years or something, which would probably be analogous to the Zito deal).

I don't think either of them will misjudge the market badly enough that their estimates are off by more than a few million dollars per year.

So it really will come down to whether he wants to stay in NY or not. I think he does, but if he doesn't, then the Yankees shouldn't really want him anyway.

[andagh]

After the JD Drew experiment, I don't know how willing the Red Sox are going to be to drive a truckfull of cash up to A-Rod's driveway. Both the Red Sox and the Yankees are generally well run organizations now. I don't see either of them offering A-Rod 30 million dollars until he's 45.

I think A-Rod will go to one of the Mets, Giants, or Dodgers if the Yankees kind sign him to an extension that isn't insane.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if, right after opting out, he's named and shamed as a steroid user.

[kab21]

I'm pretty sure that Boras can't talk to other teams about contracts (even secretly), because that is pretty serious collusion.

I could be wrong, but that the Yankees would have exclusive negotiating rights for several more weeks.

[Teetz]

I'd like to see Abreu playing RF for the Cubs next season.

[nrmax88]

I think he is allowed to talk to other teams but they "cant talk money", for what that is worth.

[nrmax88]

Yeah, Abreu would be perfect in the Cubs lineup, that perfect left handed on base machine to hit infront of Lee/Ramirez.

[themfightnwords]

I am sure many people dont like Jeters ego and self-absorption but he is a team leader... kind of

[themfightnwords]

"Why would the Yankees want to drive down A-Rod's price? Why not stay in the bidding with zero intention of making a concrete offer, just to force the Red Sox to spend more?"

If he admits that he will pursue A-rod there is a 0.0% chance that A-rod does not opt out.A-rod will probably still opt out (i am almost sure of this) but Cashman can say that his comments were premature and drive up the price for the sox.

[will]

i'd like to see gm's mention whether or not they're interested before a-rod makes his decision to opt-out (even though i know that will never happen). it could scare him into signing an extension with the yankees, keeping him there to continue underachieving in the playoffs for 10 more years. that would be perfect.

[kab21]

To compare Drew's contract to AROD's is ridiculous. AROD 'might' be the best player in the game today. Drew is not even close to being the best RF'er.

The Red Sox will definitely be interested in AROD if he opts out (unless Lowell is resigned first). Signing AROD would be a great way to give the Yankees the middle finger. Having a 3-4-5 of AROD, Ortiz, and Ramirez is ridiculous. They won't go for the 10yr/300M contract. But they will be involved.