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Three articles about the Cubs' Mark Prior situation came out today - Buster Olney, Paul Sullivan, and Gordon Wittenmyer. The Cubs have until December 12th to make a decision one way or another - that date is the last day for teams to offer 2008 contracts to unsigned players.
The Cubs may try to keep Prior and see if they can salvage anything. He hasn't taken a big league mound since August 10, 2006, when he got knocked around by the Brewers. What the Cubs don't want is to bring Prior back for 2008, see him rebuild value, and then have him jump ship after the season. Instead they want an option for 2009 tacked on. The least the Cubs can sign him for '08 is $2.86MM. Prior won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2009 season since he accrued no MLB service time this year. So I'm not sure why the Cubs would be terribly concerned with '09 since they would control him for that year anyway. UPDATE: From what I'm hearing he is a free agent after '08 after all.
As Buster Olney notes, the Cubs also have the option of trading Prior right now. Then his new team can deal with the contract situation. There's definitely a little bit of low-cost upside there, and the Padres are said to be interested.
The third option is to non-tender Prior, which seems dumb to me. It'd be better to keep him around for one more year at $3MM.
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This is a weird situation all around. Prior's upside seems way too high to me to non tender him. I'm not totally sure what they could get for him, but the value has to be at an all time low right now. I say bring him back for 3 mil. It is after all, his first arm surgery ever, and all seems to have gone really well from what I've heard.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 12:36 PM
trade him to the Yanks to replace Joba in 8th! lol
Posted by: maximumpotential | November 27, 2007 at 12:39 PM
I'll take him. O's seem to like trading with the Cubs and we need a 2 or 3 pitcher. And even if Prior is only solid its a good deal.
Posted by: XD23 | November 27, 2007 at 12:40 PM
I thought I'd read that Prior and his agent appealed to the players union because the cubs sent him to the minors so he wouldn't accrue service time, but he was actually hurt before being sent to the minors. Therefore, he would accrue service time. If I remember correctly he'll be eligible for free agency after August 2008, or something weird like that.
Posted by: Dave | November 27, 2007 at 12:40 PM
i am in favor bringing him back myself. but if he were traded to the padres would the padres be interested in a package of prior, murton, and patterson? patterson would be for cf. any padres fans like this deal? if so, what could the cubs expect to get back in return?
Posted by: integr96 | November 27, 2007 at 12:45 PM
Please tim for the love of god stop the talking ads - those of us at work don't need to broadcast to the rest of the office we may have won an xbox lol. Oh - and just to be on topic - I beleive Dave is right - there was a grievance filed but I don't remember the outcome
Posted by: touchmymonkey | November 27, 2007 at 01:05 PM
seems that if the Cubs were that worried about the 09 option, that would lead me to believe that Prior won the grievance. Don't know for sure though...
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 01:08 PM
Looking at it from aqn investment viewpoint it actually makes sense to keep and try to salvage him.
If you bought a stock at $20 and it wnet down to $2 your a moron if you sell unless, like in the Enron situation, there's no way it can recover. You hold that stock, and maybe even buy more, and hope for it to turn around, trying to recoup some, if not all, of your losses.
The Cubs bought Prior high out of college with a major league contract. To sell low is a waste of your invest.
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | November 27, 2007 at 01:09 PM
At least keep him until his trade value is solidified if in fact that ever happens.
Posted by: JTurdmonkey | November 27, 2007 at 01:13 PM
Its like that...kind of. It would be more like the $20 stock hit $2 and you were either forced to buy more at $4, or sell what you have.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 01:15 PM
what does non-tender mean... i have heard it before, but am totally clueless to what it means.
Posted by: glberns | November 27, 2007 at 01:19 PM
Non-tendering means "not offering him a contract."
One of his [many] injuries was really unlucky--that Brad Hawpe liner--but the most recent one is his shoulder. Elbows can be repaired pretty easily these days with TJ surgery being so commonplace, but there's no shoulder equvilient yet. That said, all of his longterm DL stints have been as a result of his shoulder, so maybe the surgery cleaned it up this time. He's an all-or-nothing risk the Cubs should take, especially on the cheap. If he pans out and stays healthy (yes, there's a chance), he has the potential to win 15+ games.
Posted by: FineHamAbounds | November 27, 2007 at 01:35 PM
I don't want to be the party-pooper here, but everytime Prior has pitched since '04, his ball has been straight (no break, no action), his control has been off, and he has been knocked around. The control, movement on the fastball, and curveball of 2002-03 has not been seen, at all, and I watch almost every Cub game. If you say it's because of his injuries, and will come back, OK, but I don't know.
Posted by: Cubs World Champs please B4 I die | November 27, 2007 at 01:45 PM
Cubs World Champs please B4 I die,
I'd take the 2005 version of Mark Prior for $3.5M this year over Jason Marquis, Sean Marshall, Ryan Dempster and most of the current free agent pitchers.
1.21 WHIP, 10.15 K's/9IP, 3.67 ERA, 20 of his 27 starts were QS.
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | November 27, 2007 at 02:01 PM
I would take a chance. When it comes to medical rehabs and contracts, it is a tough call. The thought of Prior coming back to have better than average stuff would be great. I doubt he will come close to what could have been, but he has to be an upgrade over Marquis...'if healthy'.
Posted by: Oh Boy | November 27, 2007 at 02:13 PM
You cant just up and dump such a large investment. Sign him for 08 with an 09 option. Give him $3m for 08. Its hard to imagine him not being able to make 10 starts in 08. Him making 10 starts for us as a healthy pitcher is better than Dempster, Marshall, or Marquis makin a combine 30 starts.
Posted by: RbCubsFan4Life | November 27, 2007 at 02:24 PM
Thats the point. He might not want to sign with an 09' option. He could take the 3 mil and all the rest of the money we have given him, rehab on our tab, come back for the middle to end of the season, pitch very well, and then bolt for San Diego. Thats what Hendry is wrestling with here. Either roll the dice again or see what he can get and avoid him ditching the team and the millions they have sunk into him.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 03:37 PM
The Cubs should look into Griffey Jr. and Mike Hampton, they'd fit in perfectly.
Posted by: Land-Man | November 27, 2007 at 03:48 PM
Mike Hampton yes injured again just love it. If he doesn't pitch and play well his contract goes down as one of worst signings ever. The Rockies signed em. I want Prior to play well and im not a cub fan. Thank God! They could trade him at the All Star break.
Posted by: braves077 | November 27, 2007 at 04:26 PM
I don't think he is going to be healthy for the start of the season, is he?
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 04:27 PM
Prior, not Hampton.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 04:27 PM
I strongly doubt we're even having this conversation if Mark Prior was open to the type of deal Hendry would like to sign him to -- low base with sizeable incentives this year, and a team option for 2009 (even a real generous one).
The fact that such a deal has not been agreed to makes me think Prior doesn't want to give up control of his 2009 season.
That's what has the Cubs in such a pickle.
As was outlined, the Cubs' worst case scenario is to pay him yet again to do mostly rehab work, and then watch him bolt as a free agent just when he's primed to return to form.
Regardless of how much the Cubs have invested here, that's throwing away good money after bad, poorly-conceived stock market analogies notwithstanding.
Posted by: davearm | November 27, 2007 at 04:53 PM
can someone pleaase tell me if the cubs traded prior what would the cubs be getting in return anyone???
Posted by: CMichaels6 | November 27, 2007 at 04:54 PM
B level prospect maybe? I can't imagine the value is all that great...
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 05:29 PM
Poorly conceived stock market analogy? What is poorly conceived about it? You endorse the concept of buying high and selling low?
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | November 27, 2007 at 07:26 PM
Can anyone tell me why the Cubs don't make a pitch for Santana? Shouldn't Pie, Marmol, and Rich Hill get it done? In fact, can anyone tell me why the Cubs have done practically nothing this offseason? What are they waiting for?
Posted by: NancyEcho1469 | November 27, 2007 at 10:53 PM
Pie would fill their CF need, Hill would be a starter to fill Santana's void (although thats giving Hill WAY WAY too much credit), and Marmol is Marmol, and thats awesome.
However, I'm not sure if the Twins would do it. The problem for the Cubs is that they don't really have the money for that kind of a long term contract. If they had lost Zambrano, sure, but they can't afford both of them along with Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano. Are there any Twins fans that think Pie, Marmol, Hill wouldn't be as good as the other offers? Marmol would probably soften the blow of losing Nathan as well. Maybe throw in another prospect like Gallegher? I have some Cubbie bias...so someone else give me their take.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | November 27, 2007 at 11:02 PM
'If you bought a stock at $20 and it wnet down to $2 your a moron if you sell unless, like in the Enron situation, there's no way it can recover. You hold that stock, and maybe even buy more, and hope for it to turn around, trying to recoup some, if not all, of your losses.'
This is a great way to lose alot of money.
Your point is true if nothing changes in your stock and it unexpectedly goes down. Something has changed in the Prior stock. Prior has continually released terrible results (i.e. injuries) and he is legitimately valued at $2. The only question now is what is his future worth? If you think it's higher than what you can get in return then you keep him. If he's not worth the contract you have to given then you trade him.
Posted by: kab21 | November 28, 2007 at 12:04 AM
The Cubs have not invested that much in Prior.....about $15M over 5 years. That's kind of like them saying after this season that they have invested so much in Eyre, that they can't let him walk.
Prior is a selfish Nancy-boy. No heart, no balls, no tolerance for pain, and no loyalty. I look forward to his departure from the Cubs. It would be icing on the cake if the Cubs could get anything from him.
Posted by: GlenallenHill | November 28, 2007 at 02:00 AM
"This is a great way to lose alot of money."
Another buy high sell low guy. How's your portfolio doing?
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | November 28, 2007 at 08:28 AM