Graziano On A Yankees/Santana Trade

I think it's safe to say the Twins will get offered something better than Melky, Horne, and Tabata... just another delusional Yankee fan making up rumors that he wishes would come true.

I figured we'd get that kind of standard-issue reaction when Graziano offered an opinion off the beaten path.

With all respect to Mr. Graziano, his analysis of what the Twins will want is laughably wrong. The Twins have made some nifty deals when they traded away worthless players-- Brian Buchanan for Jason Bartlett, JC Romero for Alexi Casilla, and so forth. Nice little trades.

This is the best pitcher in baseball we're talking about, not a AAAA outfielder or washed up, head-case lefthanded middle reliever. The Twins won't go below the radar when real talent is involved. For AJ Pierzynski, an OK catcher with an attitude problem, they required Joe Nathan, now all-star, and two pretty prominent prospects, Bonser and Liriano.

The Twins will not trade Santana for a pile of garbage like Alan Horne and Jose Tabata. They might as well let Santana walk and collect the draft picks. The absolute minimum price will be two young starting position players and a real prospect; e.g., Cabrera, Cano, and one of the Yanks top young pitchers (no, Alan Horne doesn't count).

It may be an opinion off the beaten path, but that doesn't make it reasonable. Would the Twins value that package more than one with Carlos Gomez and Lastings Milledge? Or one with Kemp and Kershaw? Or with Lester and Ellsbury? These are the beginnings of reasonable packages for Santana, just like Hughes and Melky would be a reasonable starting point. But I seriously doubt that Alan Horne is going to get the job done for the best pitcher alive. Yankee fans and NY sportswriters constantly discuss these types of packages as reasonable deals, and they never are. Graziano is a decent sportswriter, but that has nothing to do with the validity of this particular opinion of his.

i agree with Mr_Punch. I, too am a die-hard redsox fan, but i do believe the deal IS POSSIBLE. it may cost them a little more then Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes, Robinson Cano and Allan Horne. Maybe throw Abreu in instead of cabrera, pay some of his contract, and add some other minor leaguers, from the R-AA league

"he doesnt shouldnt have much credability."

www.learnenglish.com

Am I the only one thinking that Santana's value is getting a bit overblown?

I'll start with the theoretical value.

At $20M a year, you're getting him for one year, and at a profit of $7M. Not a big deal.

Melky Cabrera ALONE, will turn a $7M profit this season.

Now, since the aquiring team will be paying market value on the extension (for a longer time period than desired), that's a wash.

So, Santana's THEORETICAL value is about $7M, which is, frankly, peanuts.

The big issue is how much is it worth to have that true ace pitcher? Would he guarantee a WS ring for an acquiring team? Even if so, how much is that worth? How much is it worth that his level of performance is more reliable than that of Phil Hughes or a similar inexperienced player (a lot, but how much? how do you quantify that?).

Anyway, think about salaries and value in a vacuum again for a second.

If Cano got a 4 year deal this offseason, how much would it be for? Easily $45M, probably more. We'll go with the lower number.

How about Hughes on a 5 year deal? Again, easily $40-50M, I'd say (I hope it's not Yankee bias, but would any team actually prefer Lohse or Silva to Hughes? I don't think so).

Cabrera? 4 years, $25M is the low end.

Horne? Tabata? Obviously much harder to quantify, but there'd be considerable dollars spent.

Kennedy for 5 years? I'll just throw a random low number out of a hat - $25M.

What are these players going to make in total?

Cano - about $20M over 4?
Hughes - $20M over 5?
Cabera - $12M over 4?

Anyway, you get the point. In terms of profit, those two theoretically turn a profit of about $60M (and likely much more) over the net 5 years.

Now, is Santana's "ace" status enough to increase his theoretical value tenfold? I have a hard time seeing it, and I think other GMs will too, which is why the offers for him aren't going to be as high as you think.

The more recent reports seem to put Horne above Kennedy for potential upside, but he's not as far along. I'm actually curious why he's not being hyped more.

I could see Melky being more useful to the Twins in terms of where they could use him / fit him in the budget, but if they got Cano, they could just turn around and trade him for someone better than Melky.

Tabata's certainly not junk, unless you just consider low minors players junk automatically.

I think the Yankees would jump on it if that's all it took. Now that A-Rod is back, they'd do it too if it was Cano instead of Melky.

As for the comments on the Twins demanding Liriano, Nathan, and Bonser for Pierzinsky, remember, Bonser was probably considered the cream of the crop, yet he's most notable now for having a goofy name. Nathan was just a typical disposable reliever at the time. Liriano was looked at as a huge injury risk. So far, Liriano played one (excellent) season in the majors, then had Tommy John surgery. For all we know, he could turn out like Wood & Prior did.

There are teams out there ready and willing to give up their very best prospects or young proven major leaguers. Is he really serious about Melky Cabrerra and Alan Hornye?> The one thing that he doesn't talk about is a window to talk about an extension. And I think most teams who give up their very best young players, are gonna need to talk about signing Santana long term.

Draft picks? What is this the NFL. Last time i checked, you can't trade draft picks.

He said it depends on what the Red Sox and Mets offer. If they're stupid enough to start off with Buchholz or Reyes, then the Yankees are obviously out because no one in their right minds would trade Cano right now, even for Santana. But are they really stupid enough to start with that?

walkoffblast, the issue comes down to is it worth trading one (or two) minimum salary players that you consider a year or two away from being #1 pitchers for a pitcher who already is an ace but is most likely going to demand a record setting contract.

I think most of the "we can't trade Cano" talk occurred when it looked like A-Rod wasn't going to be a Yankee.

Now evaluate that as someone who has Carl Pavano on the payroll, and recently got Kevin Brown and Jaret Wright off the payroll.

Contrary to popular belief, even the Yankees have payroll limits.

If we get Santana for Cabrera, Horne and Tabata -- well not only would I dance a jig, but I would also begin to doubt my ability to understand trade value. I really can't believe a trade like this would ever work... but maybe it's just me.

"the Yankees are obviously out because no one in their right minds would trade Cano right now, even for Santana." -Andrew

I disagree Andrew, I think if push comes to shove Cashman will part with both Cano and Hughes to get this deal done. If the Yanks hope to make a push for the series this year they need that ace, and I don't think they just dropped 275mil on A-rod not to make a go of it.

PS. I really really really hope FJM does something on Graziano. He's clearly worthy.

Melky Cabrera in his rookies season hit .280 avg/ .360 OBP. Alan Horne was named the AA (Eastern League) pitcher of the year. John Manuel from Baseball America believes Horne's stuff to be just below Joba's and says that a scout told him he has 4 plus pitches(he also loves his arm-strength aka durability- http://www.blogtalkradio.com/nybaseballtalk/2007/11/18/Top-10-Prospects-).
Jose Tabata hit .300 as an 18-year-old in the FSL. I'm not saying they would be enough to net Santana, but they aren't scrubs like they're being painted out to be.

Man, this guy's such a Yankee homer he make Mike Francesca look like a Red Sox fan.

Cano is too high a price almost by himself. The numbers he puts up for a smooth-fielding second baseman are unbelievable; and, they are only getting better.
While the Yankees need a left handed starter (moreover, need to keep Santana from the Sox), they need a staple at second who most coaches agree is a future batting champion.
Robbie is also an infusion of energy for the team. As is friend Melky Cabrera who, unfortunately for their team chemistry, fits in this trade puzzle.
I liked Dan's take on the trade possibilities and agree the Twins have decent scouting.

Bobo- I like your analysis a lot more in your response to my post. I can see where you're coming from. I personally don't believe Hughes will be an "Ace", and some baseball people with far more knowledge than I feel the same (K.Law on ESPN has said on a number of occasions in chats that he doesn't see him being anything more than a #2). Doesn't mean he can't get there, but I wouldn't bet on it. I'd much rather take my chances on Santana being more dominant in the next 5/6 years than Hughes. It's really a question of which Hughes are you going to get? The pre-hamstring injury Hughes who looked sharp, or the guy afterwards who's stuff wasn't nearly the same.

Would losing Cano hurt? Certainly. After Jeter, I hate seeing Cano up in big at bats. He's clearly a stud. But like I was saying, the Yanks can afford to lose the likes of Cabrera and Cano offensively because of their lineup. Long term, they may regret trading Cano, because many of the big bats will start to regress (Jeter, Posada, Damon, Giambi, Matsui are all getting old and/or have injury concerns). A young position player like Cano can help stabilize the regression of these players.

With that being said, you can't win without pitching, I think we can all agree upon that. And its much easier getting a power bat through FA or trades than it is to get a guy like Santana. That's why I feel like the Yanks would have to do this trade, and as a Sox fan, I would trade Lester/Ellsbury to get him. (although I don't want Buccholz going anywhere).

Any body who tries to persude everybody that the Twins wnant Melky more then Cano is a friggen joke and I find it funny that this is a "source". Guess what though guys. MY source says that the Twins said forget Kershaw and Kemp, they have decided that they actually would rather have Mike Pelfrey and Ben Johnson. I mean the Mets offered Reyes, but the Twins have BArtlett so they want Ben Johnson instead. This is how stupid that article is. I stopped reading it as soon as he suggested in anyway that the twins would prefer Melky to Cano. Yup... and I prefer whoopi goldberg to jessica alba. Jeez.

Smack - my point wasn't to give an excuse - it was to show how random the postseason is. All you can do is get in and hope for the best.

Wang pitching like crap is another example.

If he pitched one of his average games in the postseason, the Yankees could have won. But that's how it goes - the Indians outplayed us.

Again, not making excuses - just saying that to say they need a starter or else they're "going nowhere" is pretty silly (I know that wasn't your comment).

Ripwa - I don't agree. I expect a dropoff from Posada and ARod, improvement from Cano, Cabrera, Abreu, and their aggregate 1B numbers.

The pen should be similar (not as good as it was with Joba, but a bit better than it was without him).

The rotation is a big difference, especially if Pettitte comes back.

I'm trying to compare them, but I'm even having a hard time saying what the Yankee rotation _was_ in 2007 - that's how decimated by injuries (and yes, ill-conceived) it was.

Just look at who made the starts on that team, and the chances of improvement this year are very high.

There was a combined 38 starts by guys like Igawa, Rasner, DeSalvo, Chase Wright, etc.

Hughes should improve. I think Joba will be better than Clemens was. I could go on...

And I agree that it would be better not to have 3 rookies, but you have to compare them to the alternatives. What if they had, say, Kyle Lohse instead of Kennedy? You wouldn't hear the "3 rookies" talk anymore, but I'd take Kennedy over Lohse in a second as my 5th starter.

Anyway, as it stands today, I think the Yankees are not as good as the Red Sox, but better than any other wild card team. In other words, I think the only teams that may be better are Cleveland, Boston, and Anaheim. Detroit may be close.

And we all know that anything can happen once you get in the playoffs.

I just have to add here that contrary to all of the opinions of people whose only exposure to Dan Graziano is the quote above, he is most certainly not a "Yankee homer". As an admittedly Yankee homer myself, he frequently annoys me to no end, but is usually right. Case in point, at the beginning of the 2007 season, he insisted that the Yankee bullpen was weak and that the Red Sox bullpen was far superior. The homer in me took issue with that, but history has proven me wrong.

I don't think he needs to be FJM'd. Read what he said again, lots of "may" and "mights". I would love it if this trade does not occur and in a year, everyone is talking about what a great season Melky had and what a surprise Horne was after his emergency June call-up. But I'm a Yankee homer.

Those who think Alan Horne is worth anything of value is sadly mistaken. He's no better than Jack Egbert.

I think that they will be back end inning-eaters, maybe good set-up men. Egbert might have a good amount of value to the Sox if he can keep his ground ball rates up. He'll have to fight his way into a role though, he had to just to get on the 40-man roster. But my point is, they aren't the type of prospects you put in the center of a Santana deal. The Yankees will have to do better than that.

It doesn't help healthwise?

So you think having Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy throw 200+ IP is healthy? Dusty Baker, is that you?

At this stage in their careers, Mussina and Pettitte would surely benefit as well.

The only one it wouldn't help would be Wang.

I got to agree with you guys. That's why i say the Yankees put Joba as the setup man and Kennedy as the long man from the bullpen when Mussina messes up. Hughes would be allright in the rotation. so hoping Pettite come s back it'll be Pettite, Wang, Mussina and Hughes. The 5th starter I'm not sure of, they could probably sign some mediocare starter like Carlos Silva who could eat up innings which the Yankees need. Hey, maybe they'll sign David Wells, lol.

Hey Dane, I never said that the Twins would want Lester. What the heck are you talking about? I only said that this trade as proposed doesn't make sense.

It's just such a disappointing, Yankee-centric analyis. "Since the Yankees don't want to give up any of these guys, the Twins will have to settle for this". Sure, if there were zero other teams in MLB that might be how it works.

But which teams wouldn't be willing to top a package of Cabrera, Horne and Tabata? None. That package would be the 29th best offer the Twins get for Santana.

If NYY won't part with Joba, Hughes or Kennedy (likely more than 1 of them) the Twins have no incentive to deal with them. They'll just trade him elsewhere or hang on to him.