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« Rockies Rumors: Helton, Holliday, Matsui | Main | Odds and Ends: Garcia, Greene, DeJesus »
More On Mike Lowell
Michael Silverman has a little detail on Boston's three-year offer to Mike Lowell: it's between $12-15MM per season. It's all guaranteed, and it doesn't seem to be a "take it or leave it" offer, but they won't add a fourth year. So it's for $45MM on the high end. If you agree with Jon Heyman's 4/52 prediction, Lowell would be leaving a minimum of $7MM on the table.
Silverman adds that the Red Sox won't go nuts trying to replace Lowell with a big name if things don't work out. They figure that if Kevin Youkilis can win a Gold Glove at first, he might be adequate at third base. They peeked their head in on Miguel Cabrera and balked at the price of Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz. Joe Crede might be someone for the Sox to consider.
The Yankees, Angels, and Phillies will be in on Lowell if he can't come to an agreement with Boston. However, Phils GM Pat Gillick has stated his focus is pitching rather than third base.
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If Lowell isn't taking 3-45 from the Sox, he's not going to take any three year offer from the Phils. So I'd hope the Phillies wouldn't pursue him in a 4-year deal. That money would be better spent on Rowand, who I still think is expendable...but still an better investment than Lowell.
Who could come up with a 4 year offer for Lowell? Would the Yankees really be interested in that sort of commitment? Maybe if they can't sign Posada
Posted by: wayne gomes | November 09, 2007 at 01:32 PM
I don't think there is any possible way the Red Sox can offer him less than the $14M average annual salary they foolishly offered JD Drew. That said, I believe the offer is 3 years, $42M.
I think that is a fair deal for both sides.
Posted by: EM3 | November 09, 2007 at 01:41 PM
I think Lowell needs the Sox much more then the Sox need Lowell. He is such a good product of Fenways monster. Philly would be a good fit also. It would be a mistake for a team with a big pitchers park to sign him. A lot of those wall ball double will turn into lazy fly balls.
Posted by: nrmax88 | November 09, 2007 at 01:49 PM
I completely agree, nrmax. Some have talked about Lowell's stats the last two years, like his batting average this past season, as outliers and flukes. But Lowell is perfect for Fenway, and he must know it. Philly isn't as keen on Lowell I think in part because they don't want to lose the draft pick.
People keep saying he could get 4 years, but I wonder from who. The Yankees dont seem interested. Would the LA teams do it? Possibly. It's still early in the offseason. The Sox need to get this taken care of so they can concentrate on getting whatever they can for Coco.
Posted by: JakeOD21 | November 09, 2007 at 02:02 PM
But Lowell doesn't need the Sox if other teams are stupid enough to believe his 2007 success (both Fenway-aided and luck-aided) will continue.
Sure, Lowell would prefer to succeed, but if you're talking about a $15-20M difference, I think he'd be able to deal with his stats falling off.
I unfortunately think the Yankees ARE interested, and I'm afraid they'll give him 4 years at close to $60M.
Posted by: bobo | November 09, 2007 at 02:38 PM
bobo,
A four-year, $60M deal from the Yankees would not be something to fear as a Red Sox fan; it would simply remove an otherwise difficult decision by placing the market for his services so far out of the realm of reasonability that the Red Sox wouldn't even have to consider stepping out of their comfort zone to better their offer.
As it is, I think three years at $42M is too much for Lowell. He had NEVER hit better than .300 before last season, and his career OBP is .344. I love his glove, but I'm concerned that he will drop off the planet in the next two years, and the Red Sox will have so much money invested in him that they will play him through thick and thin.
The market is very reactionary, and $14M per over the next three years is only worth it if he produces close to what he did last season over the course of the contract. If we removed last year's stats as an outlier and duplicated his 2006 stats, Lowell would be looking at two years for $9-10M per.
Posted by: DunkinDonuts | November 09, 2007 at 05:01 PM
I'd be pissed if the Angels offered him anything about a 2/25 deal. The thought of a 4 year contract at $14-15m/year is nuts.
Mike Lowell simply is not that good.
Posted by: bjsguess | November 09, 2007 at 05:13 PM
I'm a Yankee fan; that's why I fear they'll make him an offer like that.
Posted by: bobo | November 10, 2007 at 05:59 PM
Lowell is a winner and replacing PayRod with him is the Yankees' best option. The only problem with offering a big contract would possibly be if it eclipsed the FA offers of longtime Yanks Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada.
Posted by: HoratioAlgae | November 10, 2007 at 08:10 PM