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« Miguel Cabrera Gets $11.3MM | Main | Odds and Ends: Gregg, Howard, Shingo, Valentin, Ankiel »
Rays Dealings: Pena, Kazmir, Shields
We discussed the Carlos Pena deal here, but now we have the breakdown via Marc Topkin. He'll get $6MM in '08, $8MM in '09, and $10.125MM in '10. Meanwhile fellow Boras client Matt Holliday will get $9.5MM in '08 and $13.5MM in '09. Holliday may be the superior player, but is he 60% better? Seems Pena just wanted the security and likes Tampa Bay.
Topkin wrote earlier today that Scott Kazmir expected to have an arbitration hearing with the Rays. However, Kazmir and the Rays were able to agree on a $3.785MM salary for '08. Avoiding a hearing might help a bit if the Rays attempt to sign Kazmir long-term in the future.
Topkin adds that the Rays are trying to sign Jamie Shields to a six or even seven-year deal (and he's not even arbitration-eligible yet). I believe he's not due for free agency until after the 2011 season. Marc Lancaster says it could be a five or six year deal with Shields and "it may be wrapped up within the next week."
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I do not know if i would sight shields to that long term of a deal with all teh young arms the rays have. I know he is a talented innings eater (the Aaron Harang compairson you cannot beat), so maybe it is worth it. I just figured the Rays would not want to extend him for that long since they have a plethera of other options ( saw plethera the other day, figured it was time to extend the vocab.)
Posted by: bravesbeast | January 18, 2008 at 02:23 PM
Yes, Holliday is 60% better. Maybe more than 60%. Before 2007, Pena was basically about a 112 OPS+ hitter (12% over a park and league normalized average). And, at 29, he's hit his peak. I find it hard to believe that his 2007 is the real deal, while the rest of his career was an aberration. I think it more likely that he'll revert to something closer to the rest of his career, maybe an OPS+ of 120-125.
Holliday on the other hand has been improving greatly through the years when a good player should be developing:
Year OPS OPS+
2004 837 103
2005 866 114
2006 973 137
2007 1012 150
Holliday is the real deal and just keeps getting better and better. He's probably about to plateau, but there's no reason to believe he'll regress, unlike Pena.
Posted by: NYRoyal | January 18, 2008 at 02:37 PM
Bravesbeast: It's spelled plethora. I figured if you wanted to extend the vocab you probably want to do it right.
As far as the Sheilds signing goes, I agree, the Rays probably don't need to extend him for that long especially since he is so far away from free agency.
Posted by: Grammatica | January 18, 2008 at 03:04 PM
No chance Holliday is 60% better, Pena was actually more valuable in 2007. And Holliday is Josh Willingham outside of Coors.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | January 18, 2008 at 04:20 PM
Whats wrong with Josh Willingham?
Posted by: Barroid_Bonds | January 18, 2008 at 05:58 PM
Nothing, but he is not Matt Holliday (at Coors, atleast).
Posted by: nrmax88 | January 18, 2008 at 06:02 PM
"No chance Holliday is 60% better, Pena was actually more valuable in 2007. And Holliday is Josh Willingham outside of Coors."
Nice to see a reality check for Matt Holliday amongst the fans. So many scrubs out there calling Holliday the best hitter in the game.
It's a joke. I hate Coors.
Posted by: bsox21 | January 18, 2008 at 07:23 PM
If they do lock up both long term, that'll give the Rays a nasty 1-2 for a longtime...The DRays are a sleeping giant, if only they weren't surrounded by giants...I'm a NL guy, I tolerate the Phillies for a living and I've seen Shields pitch a few times....I've really become a big fan....it was love at first sight or love at first change up....he's got one of the better change ups in baseball particularly from the right side.
Posted by: PeteRose | January 18, 2008 at 07:50 PM
Shields is gona regress in a big way in 08. Might be serviceable, but I owuldn't touch him in a fantasy baseball league.
Posted by: bsox21 | January 18, 2008 at 08:55 PM
^there a lot of people who disagree, including myself.
Posted by: gogopalehose | January 18, 2008 at 09:02 PM
Shields is one of the best kept secrets in MLB. Normally I think it is a bad idea to sign pitchers to such long-term contracts, but this may be the exception. He has excellent mechanics and nasty stuff. For those of you who have not watched him pitch, make a point of catching one of his games this year. I think you will be impressed.
Posted by: HoratioAlgae | January 18, 2008 at 09:10 PM
Great read about Shields:
http://blog.stats.com/2007/07/whiff_profile_james_shields.html
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | January 18, 2008 at 09:46 PM
"Shields is one of the best kept secrets in MLB"
Truly...but it's growing...first time I had the pleasure was about a year ago, unless I'm imagining it he had a start against Hamels in interleague game. Don't remember much of the particulars. It took them a a while but by the third inning all play by play would talk about is this kids changeup..it looked like he was throwing a bar of soap...and he's got the fastball to throw it at multiple speeds. Speaking of changeups ...Josh Beckett game 6 in NY- throws an 89mph changeup off of 98mph fastball tailing away from righthanders....dreamy stuff...imo it doesn't get talked about enough.
Posted by: PeteRose | January 18, 2008 at 10:10 PM
Check out the OPS+ for Holliday and Pena for the last 3 years. OPS+ is park and league normalized, so Holliday isn't helped by Coors Field in that stat. Except for one season, Pena has been little better than average. Holliday, on the other hand has been much better than average and getting significantly better every year. And Holliday is two years younger. Holliday is definitely at least 60% better.
Posted by: NYRoyal | January 18, 2008 at 11:17 PM
"Seems Pena just wanted the security and likes Tampa Bay."
Who would have ever imagined that a sentence like that would ever be written?
It's going to be very interesting for the Rays. They are locking up guys early. This will set a precedent that could force them to do this with all their young players. So far it has paid off (Carl Crawford) but it can certainly backfire. And with a team like the Rays, having a $8m mistake is huge.
Goes without saying that I believe they are doing the right thing given their circumstances.
Posted by: bjsguess | January 18, 2008 at 11:47 PM
NYRoyal,
Home: 25 HRs, 1.157 OPS
Road: 11 HRs, .859 OPS
It's not rocket science man. In this day and age of statistical analysis, you have to remind urself every once in a while that sometimes the simple approach tells you everything u need to know.
Judging by that disparity, I think it's pretty clear that ur conclusion is incorrect.
To evaluate Pena based on his performance before last season is foolish. It's pretty clear that he became a completely different player last year. Players break out in their late 20s. It happens all the time. Baseball is a skill game. You don't jus show up with a 4.3 40 and cover Terrell Owens.
Pitching wins baseball. It's v simple. It's fun to say Billy Beane is a "genius" because of their "approach". The reality is he built a team that made sense for their home park and got lucky when 3 pitchers broke out at the same time. There was nothing geniuus about it.
in this case, it's fun to say OPS+ over the past 3 years tells the whole story. Unfortunately, ur argument ignores some extremely simple factors in this debate, and applies many extremely flawed assumptions.
1.157 at home. .859 on the road. It really is that simple.
Posted by: bsox21 | January 19, 2008 at 12:50 AM
One thing to keep in mind is the possibility of a trade down the line. A quality pitcher and/or hitter with a friendly contract can be a VERY valuable piece if the right deal presents itself in the future. Not saying that the Rays would trade Shields or Pena, but the possibility is always there.
Posted by: Chugalug | January 19, 2008 at 03:07 PM