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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Bruce, Longoria
Yesterday Rob Neyer of ESPN.com wrote about the fates of Baseball America's top two prospects, Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria. While Bruce start the season in the minors, Neyer notes that the Reds could be a playoff contender if Bruce and Joey Votto receive 1,000 plate appearances. On the other hand, a decision has yet be made on where Longoria will start the season. Neyer feels that the Rays may wish that Longoria was not playing so well in Spring Training. He thinks the Rays should forgo the potential savings of keeping him in the minors and buy some goodwill with the fans by showing them that the team is serious about winning.
Keeping top prospects in the minors to begin the season is likely to become a growing trend. Decisions in both of the above cases may at least in part be based on future arbitration and free agency eligibility. A team can delay free agency by just postponing a player's debut a few weeks. And as arbitration figures continue to rise, team's can delay the start of the arbitration clock by waiting until June to promote a prospect. Last season the Brewers accomplished this with their top prospect Ryan Braun by waiting until May 24th to promote him to the majors. In doing so, Braun will not be eligible for arbitration until after the 2010 season.
Let's take a look at what is being written about Bruce and Longoria in the Blogosphere...
- Redleg Nation understands starting Bruce in AAA, but laments the idea of having Corey Patterson batting leadoff. They worry that this confirms the belief that Dusty Baker prefers veterans even if they are less talented.
- Red Reporter is split on the issue of Bruce noting that the issue is not as clear as we would like it to be. They also wonder if the Reds are staggering the debuts of their prospects so their arbitration and free agency clocks are also staggered.
- Bugs & Cranks wonders if the Reds had already decided Bruce's fate even before bringing Patterson on board, for the sole purpose of delaying Bruce's arbitration clock.
- At Fanhouse, Pat Lackey tries to justify the demotion of Bruce, noting that he may be better off developing under the tutelage of somebody other than Baker, getting more experience and delaying his arbitration clock.
- On the other hand, Eamonn Brennan of Fanhouse thinks any team not managed by Baker would have kept Bruce on the roster.
- Rays of Light notes that Longoria's future teammates may not be happy if he is demoted. Rays of Light wouldn't be happy with a demotion but they understand the reasoning.
- Outs Per Swing notes that if Longoria is demoted, Willy Aybar will start at third. They do not believe that Aybar's recent hamstring issues will have an effect on the team's decision regarding Longoria.
- Sports Indeed notes that Longoria is receiving a lot of playing time in the spring and wonders if this is an indication that he will be on the opening day roster.
- Rays Index predicts a May 26 debut for Longoria based on his arbitration clock.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
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Is everyone overlooking the issue of outfield defense? If the Reds' corner outfielders are Dunn and Griffey, the team will have horrid overall outfield defense without a true centerfielder (which Bruce is not). How can a team expect to win if the outfielders can't catch flyballs? Bruce probably is better suited for RF, and in a perfect world he would replace Griffey. But Griffey is the future Hall of Famer who will be kept around for that reason alone.
Posted by: CJ | March 21, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Did anybody pay attention to the spring Bruce had? Nothing overly impressive, pulled his groin and missed 5-6 days, and once he came back from the injury started striking out in bunches. As a matter of fact, he led the team in k's, and only had one extra base hit. He didn't prove he was ready, so why force it?
Posted by: Grizzlyfox | March 21, 2008 at 12:37 PM
Speaking of leading the team in Ks...
Dusty Baker is a HACK. I read a quote of him telling Joey Votto and Jay Bruce that they need to be more "aggressive" at the plate. Dusty Baker apparently believes kids these days are too obsessed with OBP and what the kids really need to do is go up there and HACK.
So, basically Dusty Baker is saying to the kids, "JUST HIT HOMERUNS!"
I mean, geez, why should anyone worrying about GETTING ON BASE???!!!
That's the only way Baker knows how to win, otherwise he might actually have to MANAGE the team!
Next thing you know, he'll be telling Johnny Cueto he shouldn't worry so much about that pesky thing called "mechanics".
Dusty Baker is the WRONG manager for the Reds. I really don't get why they signed him on.
Posted by: lrs77 | March 21, 2008 at 01:46 PM
I agree with all 3 comments above, especially the one by CJ.
I don't agree with Nayer that the Reds are going to be a playoff contender provided their stud prospects get enough ABs, as their starting rotation is terrible. Home runs might sell tickets but pitching and defense wins baseball games, and the Reds need to improve in both of those categories.
Even if the Bruce and Votto start the entire season, the Reds still won't have a better line-up than Milwaukee...
I think that the Reds need to rush Cueto if they're going to rush somebody, given the obvious need for some better arms in the rotation.
Posted by: MrQuestions | March 21, 2008 at 03:23 PM
Oh yeah... and waht about Homer Baily?
Posted by: MrQuestions | March 21, 2008 at 03:26 PM
In Neyer's defense, I think he views the Reds as a playoff contender mostly because of the division they play in. And even then, he is saying it would take some breaks going their way...as opposed to the Rays who are a talented team but play in the toughest division in baseball and really have little or no shot at the playoffs bc of the Yankees and Sox
Posted by: Cork Gaines | March 21, 2008 at 03:46 PM
Arroyo, Harang, Cueto and Volquez look pretty good to me as a rotation. Not sure about the Reds bullpen, but those 4 could kick some but in the NL Central. And if Bailey gets his head on straight, the Reds could have maybe one of the top 3 rotations in the NL.
The Reds have a shot. Unfortunately they've got Dusty Baker managing them. He'll ruin those rookie pitchers, and he'll turn all the offensive prospects into Pedro Feliz.
Posted by: lrs77 | March 21, 2008 at 04:00 PM
A terrible rotation? Huh? Go read Stark's article on ESPN. Gammons on the radio this morning called the Reds a contender with the Cubs and the Brewers in the central. I'd almost go as far as to say the rotation is going to be the strenghth of this team.
There's been other teams scouts saying that Cueto is our ace right now, and in the Stark article a scout says Hamilton for Volquez was the best trade all winter, and he gave the edge to the Reds.
Don't call out what you don't know. The 7th inning will be a weak link, as will getting production from the catcher position. Bruce and Votto gurantee nothing, and Votto still could very well be the opening day firstbasemen. And if Corey Patterson and Freel struggle, Bruce is only a few miles away in Louisville.
Posted by: Grizzlyfox | March 21, 2008 at 04:11 PM
Good point Cork.
irs77 - I admittedly dont know too much about Volquez, is he going to make the rotation? I guess it would take much to take a spot away from Josh Fogg.
Grizzlyfox - Matt Belislse, Josh Fogg, Jeremy Affelt? THat's terrible. I understand that Cueto is coming up and will be good, but happens when Volquez blows up pitching in that hitters park? Management will also be wise to limit Cueto's innings to prevent blowing out his arm, so dont be looking for your "ace" to go 200 innings this year.
Arroyo and Harang are good of course, but it will take a lot of breaks for all of those unproven guys to come through. I'm not saying it can't happen, I just don't find it so likely ...
Posted by: MrQuestions | March 21, 2008 at 04:28 PM
The rotation is Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, and Fogg. When your number five is a career .500 guy, you're not doing too bad.
Affeldt has moved back to his left handed relief role that he excelled in last year and Belisle and Bailey are being sent to AAA.
Posted by: Grizzlyfox | March 21, 2008 at 04:54 PM
And Cueto threw that many innings last year. And I did not call him our ace, another team's scout did.
And Volquez is the type of pitcher built to succeed in a pitcher's park with his high k rate. If he keeps up the pin point control he's been showing he'll be fine.
Posted by: Grizzlyfox | March 21, 2008 at 04:55 PM
There is no affeldt or belisle. Affeldt will be in the bullpen and belisle will be in long relief or AAA. He has a minor injury so he will be most likely be in AAA. He should be in long relief were he is best at. Fogg will be the 5th starter. The thing with affeldt you can say you gave him a shot,it didnt work out and now we get one of the better left handed relief pitchers in baseball last year.
Posted by: Cincyboybrian | March 21, 2008 at 05:52 PM
the reds rotation is for real. harang is terrific, arroyo competes, and with volquez and cueto this is 4 very good options. mrquestions says volquez will have problems in their hitters park but what do u think texas' ballpark is? i really think 09 will be a lot better for them but this team will surprise people.and why does the nl central have 6 teams? that doesnt seem fair to me. i know people will say that a lot of the teams arent good but the al west has four. somebody explain that to me.
Posted by: Joelcards | March 21, 2008 at 05:57 PM
Hey Joelcards... check out Mr. Volquez's 7.50 career ERA and 1.91 WHIP in Texas... I'm not saying that WHIP and ERA are enough to evaluate a pitcher though, what is his stuff like? Is he a plus fastball guy? have a couple plus pitches? I already admitted I don't know much about the guy... What's his upside like?
I very well could be mistaken and of course anything could happen... but I just don't see the Reds staff getting it done this year. I'll be happy to eat my words if I'm wrong.
Posted by: MrQuestions | March 21, 2008 at 07:07 PM
One thing to remember, though, is that the Reds were willing to let go of Josh Hamilton for Volquez. So, it shouldn't be too much of surprise that Volquez has some amazing stuff. From what I've seen of him in ST, I'm a believer. And I'm not a Reds fan, at all. However, they have a team much more worth getting into this season than they've had in recent years. What with Votto and Bruce (at some point playing regularly this season), and Edwin Encarnacio, plus the young pitching. Should be a fun team.
Posted by: lrs77 | March 21, 2008 at 10:14 PM
Volquez can throw up too 96 with hus fastball, has a plus slder and changeup. I think his problem was control in Texas, but not sure.
Posted by: reddbuck | March 22, 2008 at 07:44 PM
While I agree that the sky is the limit with this rotation, I remain concerned about the relief situation.
Yes, we signed Cordero to close out ballgames, but that wasn't the problem last season. The problem was the 7th and 8th inning where our relief corps completely derailed. Despite that, Old Man Weathers looked pretty good in a closing role, but how many times did he need to record more than three outs to get the save? That's right -- way too many.
This team's future will be decided by guys in the pen like Coffey, Bray, Burton and (sigh) Stanton. The last name alone makes me cringe, but I remain upbeat about the others.
As for the outfield -- I hardly think that it's horrid. I agree that Dunn can be an adventure, but he's not the only power hitter in the league who struggles at times in the outfield. Griffey has made the adjustment to right field just fine, and whoever plays center (Patterson, Freel or Hopper) can cover tons of ground. There are worse defensive outfields out there.
As for Milwaukee -- while their lineup might be better on paper, I'd think twice about their injury-prone rotation. Last time I checked, only two of their starters were healthy and one of those hurlers was Ben Sheets. He's spent just as much time on the DL the last two seasons as Kerry Wood.
The weakness of this division leaves it wiiiiiiiiide open.
Posted by: OhioHomeboy | March 25, 2008 at 10:54 PM
Its too bad the reds look like a contender this year, it will probably spook the cubs enough to choke down the stretch.
Posted by: jason | March 26, 2008 at 01:31 PM
Go New Red Machine, and for all you Dusty haters, Wood was screwed up when he got there, Prior just threw too many innings at such a young part of his career.
Posted by: jason | March 26, 2008 at 01:33 PM