Brian Roberts Rumors

I'm with you. I wish there were no more Roberts postings until he is traded.

This thing is going to keep festering until the deal gets done. (And it will get done.) The Cubs obviously want Roberts badly or this wouldn't have been dragging on all this time. And the O's obviously are willing to move him. I know we're all getting antsy, but I really think it's just a matter of time and scouting. The O's aren't in a hurry and they're taking their time to watch the Cubs prospects in spring training and figure out exactly what they want. I'm sure it will be Gallagher, Cedeno, and 2 others TBD. This might not get done this week or next, and maybe it even drags on into the first couple weeks of the regular season, but it will get done.

Who's the solid prospects? How's keeping Roberts hurting the O's.If the cub's had solid prospects I think the deal would have been done already.Cedeno,Murton,Gallagher solid? Veal,Ceda,Colvin,Gallagher,and possibly a 5th player. Please take Payton too.

"Veal,Ceda,Colvin,Gallagher,and possibly a 5th player."

Thats just way too much, period. Two of those plus Cedeno and a low level prospect.

ToughOsFan,
You might want to watch Patterson, he has been very impressive this spring. His D looks pretty good at 2nd so far. I think the O's might go for him instead of Cedeno. I would if I were them.

The guy who leaked the info almost got fired and has since clammed up pretty tight.

I guess baseball people actually read this stuff.

He did say he didn't get a real good look at the last player Angelos was insisting be included in the deal, but it was a short name ( 3 or 4 letters) and began with a P, C or V ??

Roberts,Payton,Burres for Veal,Colvin,Ceda,Patterson,Gallagher

jneely77 -- What do you mean "the Cubs never won with Andy McPhail (it's MacPhail, btw)? If Steve Bartman hadn't interfered with a pop up in the playoffs, they may well have won the 2003 World Series and not the Marlins. MacPhail helped build that team! While he may get burned sometimes by deliberating too long, he's not going to get lowballed very often. The players he got in return for Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada shows he knows what he's doing when it comes to rebuilding a team. And it is precisely because the Cubs ARE desperate to win that he'll hold out for the best deal he can get, NOT what Jim Hendry decides to pawn off on him.

The Orioles will continue to loose their footing the longer this trade festers. I know it is Spring Training, but both Pie and Patterson have been impressive thus far. If this continues, Patterson might just be the left-handed batter the Cubs are looking for.

LOL,lose thier footing? Roberts is an allstar.Sping training is not the regular season.I'm sure the Cub's really want to keep Soriano leading off.O's keep Roberts till midseason and I'm sure some team contending will anti up a nice package for the O's.Patterson or Cedeno would be junk towards Roberts.

"Patterson or Cedeno would be junk towards Roberts."

Is that even english? What does that even mean?

Patterson culd end up being a guy that makes them sorry they never did this deal. If he can play 2nd as he has this spring, I would rather him make the team than Cedeno, and we could have him play 2nd whenever DeRosa is spelling someone else. Actually, I'd rather have Cedeno and Patterson, but Patterson has impressed me a lot more this spring. by the way, I'm not looking at numbers, I'm looking at things like patience at the plate, hitting line drives, taking walks, defense at 2nd, smart decision making etc.

If someone else offers a better package for Roberts, than so be it. I don't think its happening until the deadline if it does though...and I don't think the package will be any better than 2 prospects in the top 150 or so, with another 2 or 3 decent young players as well.

I agree entirely with Ken Francis, but think that some of the fans here- O's and Cubs- are pushing extremes. Aduncaroo has continuously lowballed (I'm not trying to knock you, dude; I just think that based on what we're hearing, you letting your fandom sway you), while Ndano is plain hilarious (I AM kinda knocking you, bud. As an O's fan, I loved your 'inside info' and how it riled up the Cubbie Crazies, but...c'mon! What was it...? Marmol, Soto, Gallagher, Colvin, Cedeno, Patterson, Ceda, and Veal? It was something ridiculous like that- completely unrealistic. Beside which, leak or no leak, if the Cubs actually agreed to that, McPhail wouldn't have even asked Angelos...he'd have jumped like Butch and Sundance). At first glance, I though OUTL@W was overdoing it as well, but a closer examination reveals what I think could be close. I'll get to my speculative proposal in a second, but I want to first address some of the other posts... jneely- the Cubs DID win under McPhail...otherwise, you're assessment (as to the nature of the deal) is spot on. But, as CubFan pointed out, it's probably just a matter of scouting and whatnot. By the way, CubFan- I have enjoyed your posts. I really think you're one of the Cubs fans who 'gets it'; understanding what Roberts would mean to Chicago NOW and the importance of going for that brass ring with gusto instead of hedging your bets and worrying about what MIGHT BE...IF (the prospects actually pan out). Your proposal of Gallagher, Cedeno, and '2 others TBD' is soooo broad that it really doesn't demonstrate where you stand, value-wise, however.

I am giving more on the "low level prospect" being Veal, instead of a guy like Huesby...but I think that offer is more than fair.

so speaking from someone who doesnt know the cubs all THAT well... where does Derosa go after this? Does he move to SS and replace theriot?

TOWARDS OR COMPARED TOO. Is what i was getting at.Everyone has their own opinion.I'd rather see Fayhee play 2b then Patterson or Cedeno.Now with Veal,Ceda,Gallagher and another with Patterson being the 5th player thrown in I wouldn't mind.I'm talking about Roberts and Payton both.Roberts is a solid allstar 2b and you pretty much know the numbers you are going to get. i would expect the numbers to be better with the Cub's having alot better team and not playing in the A.L. EAST.I feel a prospect is a gamble just as health is for a player.How would u feel if the O'S offered Hernandez-ss,Burres-sp,Hoey-rp,Gibbons-of and 5th low level prospect for SORIANO?Exactly that's how i feel about Roberts.

"How would u feel if the O'S offered Hernandez-ss,Burres-sp,Hoey-rp,Gibbons-of and 5th low level prospect for SORIANO?"

That is not even remotely an arguement that should be made here. You might feel that way, but that doesn't mean its the same thing...at all. I think you are letting your feelings for Roberts get to your head here...

Aduncaroo-
Thanks for giving me a segue! I apologize (again). Looking at that deal, I agree...you're not 'lowballing.' In fact, value-wise, I think you're close...even if I disagree on some of the names. I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong and that IS the case here.
Now, having said that, I DO think that you're going to see a couple different names if and when this thing goes through... (although this is just my opinion; I have no inside info and am basing this solely on what I've read and inferred, so...)
Basically, it's like this:
A)You can infer from everything out there that the Cubs REALLY want Roberts. This, in turn, can be read as putting the O's in the enviable position of 'holding the hammer'; having the upper hand in the relationship (this time) and determining if and when the deal goes down by dictating the terms. Make no mistake, if this trade happens it will be because the Orioles and McPhail feel they are getting the maximum out of their player (Roberts). As mmontice noted, its a matter of economics; supply and demand. With the O's controlling the supply, they can demand whatever they want. The Cubs only control whether they want to pay that price. From this, you can infer that Baltimore will exact their pound of flesh and that the return for Roberts will be significant- to the point of being greater than whatever subjective value is ascribed to him.
Still with me? OK...
B)The Orioles very much want one of the aforementioned 'top prospects'- Pie, Colvin, or Ceda- as well as virtual locks Gallagher and Cedeno. If the Cubs ARE indeed willing to do whatever it takes to get Roberts (no guarantee, but most sources project that it WILL happen, thus...) then you have to assume that one IS included. Immediately, you're at Gallagher, Cedeno, and Pie/Colvin/Ceda. I agree with most observers that Pie ain't going anywhere, which leaves Colvin and Ceda. Since McPhail will likely be asking for two other pitchers in the deal and because bullpen arms are typically the last parts that a rebuilding team attempts to acquire and because Ceda has emerged so recently and because of Colvin's name/pedigree AND because of the volatility of relievers (remember when Heathcliff Slocum was one of the top closers in the game...exactly); because of ALL of this, I'm convinced that McPhail will demand Colvin. As such, we're at Gallagher, Colvin, and Cedeno. While it could stop there, it seems generally agreed upon that
C)The O's will want a fourth player. I think everyone agrees that it's almost certain to be another arm (if there is, indeed, a fourth). This is where it gets tricky. Because the names being bandied about that seem to have captured McPhail's attention are bigger ones- Veal or Huesby...and Ceda's still there. If McPhail says Veal, what then? The Cubs could go tell him to- er- stick it...or they could look to fill another need and demand Payton. Granted, this is a bigger leap than the others, but due to the value of the kids already in the deal, the value of those being looked at as a fourth piece, and the Cubs' stated needs, I'm assuming that
D)Payton and/or Marquis is involved in this deal. The more I think about it, the clearer it becomes; in finding an equitable balance, one or both look 'right' to be included. It's possible that a 5th is included on the Cubs' side to further adjust for Payton, but I doubt its a name of any consequence. Initially, I had it as Patterson or Huesby, but on second thought, I think that shifts the equilibrium back out of whack, so I think I'll backtrack. Nevertheless, the final deal, as I see it:

O's get- Colvin, Gallagher, Cedeno, Veal, and PTBN (nobody)

Cubs get- Roberts, Payton

There a longshot that the nobody turns into a Huesby or, more likely, a Patterson, but again, I don't think so anymore. One last tweak of possibility... There's a chance in all of the back and forth that BOTH Payton and Marquis are included. IF that happens, I see the balance sheet looking like this:

O's get- Colvin, Gallagher, Cedeno, Ceda, (Marquis), and possibly Patterson/Huesby (the upgrades obviously coming at Veal/Ceda and nobody/somebody)

Cubs get- rid of Marquis, BRob and Payton

Thoughts? (and please spare the fan backlash and angry rhetoric...just respond with thoughtful, measured arguments)

I see the orioles i offered to u, being very comparable.What about your prospects getting into your head.WORLD SERIES is what this trade for the cub's could be about.Cub's want Roberts? then it's up to the Cub's to make it happen.

Little late on this note, but Roberts' numbers in the NL would be much better than they were on a bad team in the AL East. Even though the NL Central has upgraded as a whole this offseason, it's still not the AL or AL East for that matter. And Aduncaroo's depth arguement is also extremely relavent when considering trade value.

And someone made the point earlier that MacPhail did an excellent job thus far with the Tejada and Bedard deals. I have my own opinion on that, but just to state the facts... Patton (prized player in the Tejada deal) is done for '08 with a torn Labrum. That doesn't make MacPhail look too good. But in his defense, I suppose he had to move quickly with that trade because of the Mitchell Report and the aftermath that he felt would follow.

Cub's get ,Payton,Burres.Orioles get Gallagher,Ceda,Veal,Colvin,if there was a 5th Patterson.Would that work?

Outl@w- not even remotely the same...and I'm an O's fan.
Sabinus- I wouldn't exactly say the O's would be dumb not to trade Roberts. They'd be dumb not to trade him IF they get the right offer (or what McPhail deems 'right'). It would be dumb to trade him just for the sake of trading him.
One thing OUTL@W is right about is everyone having their own opinions. It's important we respect that here. That being said, I have a real hard time with people like start wearing purple who try to say that Roberts is just a slight upgrade (from DeRosa). C'mon man! You can play with the numbers all you want- the darkstar/crunchy battles demonstrate that much (LOL). If you read/listen to any real baseball person- scouts, managers, players...even knowledgeable fans- EVERYONE will say the same thing: Roberts brings much more to the table. I'm an O's fan, but putting that aside as best I can, just listen to people talk. Hell, DeRosa himself said something along the lines of, 'if we get a player of Roberts' caliber, I don't see where I'm going to get playing time.' Even the man himself is willing to admit that there's no contest. I wish Cubs fans would do the same, but I guess I'll have to wait until he puts on a Chicago uniform. At least then Roberts will get the respect he deserves (OK, that last part was the fan in me).

Outl@w- not even remotely the same...and I'm an O's fan.
Sabinus- I wouldn't exactly say the O's would be dumb not to trade Roberts. They'd be dumb not to trade him IF they get the right offer (or what McPhail deems 'right'). It would be dumb to trade him just for the sake of trading him.
One thing OUTL@W is right about is everyone having their own opinions. It's important we respect that here. That being said, I have a real hard time with people like start wearing purple who try to say that Roberts is just a slight upgrade (from DeRosa). C'mon man! You can play with the numbers all you want- the darkstar/crunchy battles demonstrate that much (LOL). If you read/listen to any real baseball person- scouts, managers, players...even knowledgeable fans- EVERYONE will say the same thing: Roberts brings much more to the table. I'm an O's fan, but putting that aside as best I can, just listen to people talk. Hell, DeRosa himself said something along the lines of, 'if we get a player of Roberts' caliber, I don't see where I'm going to get playing time.' Even the man himself is willing to admit that there's no contest. I wish Cubs fans would do the same, but I guess I'll have to wait until he puts on a Chicago uniform. At least then Roberts will get the respect he deserves (OK, that last part was the fan in me).

Oops, double dipped.

Again, I DO believe he is an upgrade. I just don't know if trading the Orioles our top 3 pitching prospects plus everything else that the O's fans feel they deserve, for 2 years and a total of about 7 extra wins over that period.

stolen bases,extra base hits . Roberts plays for a bad team and his numbers will be better with the cub's.Roberts allows Soriano to bat further down in the line up.i would have to say defence is better too.Roberts being a base stealer would allow cubs to see better pitches to hit with a pitcher worring about a base runner not only a hitter.Any team would benefit from Roberts.

No problem aduncaroo, I have pretty thick skin. You're right though, Marmol was in the deal.

The rationale was the Cubs got Roberts who is an allstar and solves the infield defense and leadoff issues plus Hernandez who immediately starts at catcher ( Is Soto struggling a bit?)They also got Payton who enables them to trade Murton down the road.

The Orioles agreed to take Marquis and his salary, Soto who is supposed to help them resist bringing up Weiters too soon - the guy thought the Orioles would trade Soto once Weiters did come up. They also got Marmol who would close plus Gallegher, Patterson and Colvin.

I personnaly thought that was more than fair, but apparently Angelos wanted one extra guy (short name 3-4 letters , began with C, P or V or something like that.

That's what my friend who knows the guy who works on legal stuff for the Orioles told me. Apparently Angelos found out the trade was leaked, squashed it and the guy almost lost his job.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it!

Two things, but let me first prefice them with this disclaimer: I don't know what is the correct amount of value for Roberts in this trade.

1) Jay Payton coming to the Cubs in this trade is actually negative value, meaning the Cubs should have to give up less talent if they take him on. He is dead weight to the Orioles right now. Marquis would have the same value back to the Orioles. If those two teams want to swap those two (ignoring cash), let them. If either player is thrown in the trade without the other, the team offering that player is actually hurt.

2) Brian Roberts does not make the Cubs a World Series team. The Cubs need pitching more than they need hitting. Scoring runs should not be the main problem this year for the Cubs, which is why it is so interesting that they continue to dangle their few "mlb ready" pitchers, whatever their value may be, as the main pieces in this trade.

by the way ndano, Soto is far from struggling...

Here come the Cubbies fans, circling the wagons. Where did this Wilken thing come from? I heard one guy say it, without any verification and it's just taken on a life of its own. If anyone can confirm or dispel this rumor, please, for the love of God, do so. In my humble opinion, it's a load of whatever. It just doesn't make sense, but like I said, that's just one guy's opinion. Adun- your OF comment seems irrelevant to me; yes their outfield is set...now. Still, Colvin is considered to be quite athletic, opening up the possibility of moving back to first or elsewhere. More importantly, as bad as Baltimore is, it doesn't really matter if the glut is in pitching or the OF...we need talent. Period. If Ceda were a starter I'd agree with you, but I just think his position as a reliever makes him less desirable. We shall see...perhaps.
Astrosfan- thanks. I need someone to have my back with all these Cubbies surrounding me (LOL).
Cub4Life- you may be right that Roberts isn't worth what I proposed, but that's not exactly the point. I was simply saying that I think that such a deal is what it will TAKE; it's likely that if the Cubs acquire Roberts, as most observers still believe, it will be for more than he's worth (though that's awfully subjective). That tends to happen when the other side has the upper hand negotiations-wise.

"If Ceda were a starter I'd agree with you"

Whose to say that he isn't? We aren't sure yet, and there are some reports saying he will be tried there again this year.

:)

I seem to be talking to myself now, but I would like to make one more point, because it's been bothering me... I've read- time and again- posts regurgitating the same drivel about Roberts being worth 'only 3 or 4' more wins a season. Now, I know that this is simply an attempt to argue a point by sourcing some 'expert,' so I'm not directing this at anyone in particular (unless someone can provide me the source), but...this is just the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. Who determines these things. Roberts= 3 wins?! Why? How? This is just another example of some stat-head manipulating numbers to determine a random correlative. 8 oranges = 3 books. See, I can do it too! This has nothing to do with Roberts; its a systemic issue. In attempting to quantify the subjective, numbers take on an unwarranted resonance, creating this phenomenon whereby 'proof' and 'evidence' is conjured out of an endless data stream and packaged as truth. Even then, the battle rages over whose equation more accurately conveys worth. Numbers can be manipulated to 'say' whatever you want them to say- it's reminiscent of Oliver Stone's JFK when Kevin Costner- posed with 'evidence' that the government 'proved' the possibility of the Magic Bullet's aerial balet- laughs and says something like 'physics can prove that an elephant can hang from a cliff with its tail tied to a daisy,' (it sounded better in the movie). I know that sabremetrics have become gospel among many baseball fans looking to rid the world of subjectivity, but you can't measure a player's value/quality any more than you can calculate what makes a great work of art or create a formula for love. People try (I have heard of computer programs that try to use data to determine if a movie will be a hit...how far are we from a program that determines what makes a masterpiece painting or a great concerto?), but some things simply are a matter of quality- inherently subjective- not quantity (objective).
Finally (and I know this is another long one), I ask the stat-lovers this: which three or four games does Roberts win you? Have we decided that?! 'Cause I'm sure most ANY Cubs fan would agree that if those four games won by Roberts are the four in October that end 100 years of frustration, it'll be worth it (no matter what Gallagher, Colvin, and Co. wind up doing).

Ok...

My fault, Roberts' numbers last year were slightly better than his career avg (w/ exception of SBs).

I know these numbers have been on this thread 20 times before but...

Roberts:

Last year: 621ABs 290/377/432 OPS+ 112 50SBs 42 2Bs

Career: 641ABs 281/351/409 OPS+101 37SBs 42 2Bs

DeRosa:

Last year: 502ABs 293/371/420 OPS+ 102 1SB 28 2Bs

Career: 467ABs 278/341/408 OPS+92 3SBs 26 2Bs

You're right about DeRosa's '06 numbers being better than his '07. However, two important factors to note. One, his '03 (OPS+ 81) and '04 (OPS+ 59) seasons we horrible and came at ages (28 and 29) when players should be coming into their primes. And two (which goes hand-in-hand with the above), Roberts will be 30 this year while DeRosa will be 33.

Matty,

Roberts is 30 currently, while DeRosa is 33. But, Roberts 30 is with a history of HGH use, so that actually makes him around 37, which makes DeRosa even more valuable!

(Oh, I kid of course, but that's some funny sh&t)

LOL

Let's review the facts.

1) Chicago wants Roberts and they want him bad. Forget all this garbage about whether he's worth 3-4 games or whether Derosa is his equal; the Cubs want him badly or they would have moved on long ago. they clearly see him as a player they need.

2) The Orioles are under no obligation to trade him; it seems quite clear that Angelos would be happy to have him play out his contract and maybe even overpay to resign him. Roberts is currently the face of the franchise; the Orioles like him and so do the fans. They value Roberts.

That also contributes to Roberts price.

When someone wants something badly that you also value, guess what? The price is steep.

3) The Cubs don't have an alternative other than the status quo, which they are clearly not happy with (see #1); there isn't another second baseman on the market with Roberts skills.

4) The Cubs are now a contender. As such, you do what you have to do to make yourself better. Prospects aren't important; what is important is the here and now. You don't gamble on unknowns or settle for less. You go all out. Cubs fans should be keenly aware of how fast the window can close, as quickly as you can say '03/'04.

Prospects come and go but flags fly forever. If you want your pennant and WS, you do what you have to do.

Hold your nose if necessary but pay the price. If you win it all, you'll never regret it, but if you don't, you WILL regret it.

All this means, that a "fair" market price goes out the window. Under different circumstances, a lesser offer might be adequate. It clearly isn't.

I have absolutely no doubt that I will be rooting my arse off for him. No doubt! I am afraid of giving up too much for him though. Really, at what point would Hendry just say "F it" and call off the trade? Some of the O's fans feel that if we don't trade the farm for Roberts, that we are only going to play with 8 position players.

DeRosa had a really good year last year at 2B and I am very comfortable going into 2008 with him there, and with the knowledge that Gallagher/Veal and everyone else that the O's fans want are available as well.

My .02

Can someone please send Ndano home for supper? Mommy keeps calling for him.

Marquis, Soto, Patterson, Colvin, Gallagher and Marmol?

Classic. It helps to learn just a little bit about the teams before you try to make up rumors.

He farted, but then he stole 2nd and 3rd base. Damn.

Cool. I hear you Cub4Life. I'm similarly worried about not getting enough. I've had it with the O's and their losing ways. I just want to get some guys who can turn our fortunes around so that we're no longer a freakin' joke. Seriously, this franchise is broken and I admit, I want to get as much as possible from the Roberts deal because it seems like player development is the only way we're ever going to be relevant again. I see both sides, though and I know that I'll be rooting for the Cubs a little bit if they get Roberts. The point isn't to fleece your trade partner; hopefully it works out such that Roberts helps you win NOW and the kids we get help us win LATER. Oh and Cubbies2008- way to bring the fatalism. What's a Cubs thread without the buzzkill pessimist fan?

And for the record, since I saw it mentioned, Ceda will be put in the rotation this season.

“Now, I know that this is simply an attempt to argue a point by sourcing some 'expert,' so I'm not directing this at anyone in particular (unless someone can provide me the source), but...”

…It may actually come from me, (just twisted ~ go figure that huh!) some 2 months ago when this same “Roberts inst any better than DeRosa” argument was taking place(it just included “and he uses steroids” each time back then, otherwise its identical…). Using PECOTAs (99% sure I used them) value rankings, Roberts in 2007 at 2B over DeRosa in 2007 alone was like +3-4 win, and that isnt taking into account the trickle-down effect of DeRosa keeping Cedeno or Fontenot or Patterson out of the lineup so often. I think my “upwards of 3-4 wins” has turned into “he’s only worth 3-4 Wins over DeRosa” though as if it’s a bad thing, when in actuality the upgrade only starts at like 3-4 wins…

Did you happen to look at what the upgrade actually is, dark? Or just siding with ambiguous wins? Roberts WARP advantage is purely league/park adjustment and stolen bases.

Bj, would you rather comment on the RotoWorld Draft Guide?

You may be right, Dr. Sbaitso, but most seem to think his future is in the 'pen. Baseball America: "...out of the bullpen, Ceda's fastball sat in the mid-90's and reached 99 mph. His slider also tightened up and could be a 65 pitch on the 20-80 scouting scale. Ceda is still figuring out his mechanics, so his control and command are erratic...He doesn't have much of a changeup and didn't hold up well as a starter, but those aren't issues now that he's a reliever..."
Just saying.
Dark- unfortunately injuries are always a danger. There really isn't a whole lot you can do, though I see your point re: depth. Thank God the O's have Luis Hernandez as a backup at SS. What's that...he's a starter? NOOOOOOOOO!

Sorry. Couldn't help myself. All in jest, baby! All in jest.

MileHigh, thank you for the compliments...while I am a huge Cub fan I'm trying to look at this deal from both sides. The Cubs obviously have more incentive right now to do this deal. They have a team that has been built to win now. With this current core of players, they're looking at a window of roughly 2007-2010 or so to take this group to the World Series. A lot of the Cub fans have really taken Mark DeRosa to heart, and so have I, but we can't let that cloud our judgement into thinking that adding Brian Roberts wouldn't be a significant upgrade. The Cubs don't want Roberts because they don't like DeRosa there. They want Roberts because of all of the tools that he brings to the table, and 2nd base just happens to be where he plays. Roberts strengths are exactly in line with the Cubs weaknesses last year: left-handed, speed, on base percentage, contact, and he's a lead-off hitter. By adding him, not only do you upgrade your lineup and your defense at 2nd, but you also DRASTICALLY improve your bench by adding DeRosa to it. He's perfect in the 'super-sub' role, and he'll get plenty of at bats because he can play 2B, 3B, 1B, SS, RF, or LF. Being the main backup at all those spots, he'll be playing just about every day anyway. You're not just swapping one .290 hitter for another one who's a little faster. You're strengthening your entire team on offense, defense, AND the bench. The Cubs lineup is pretty potent top-to-bottom as it is, but stick Roberts in there and you're looking at a real murderers row. What pitcher is going to look forward to moving through a lineup that inclues Roberts, Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Fukudome, etc?
From the O's standpoint, they know that they're in the position of strength here so of course they're going to try to get all they can. If you make a deal for something like Cedeno, Gallagher, Colvin, and Veal, the O's are getting:
Cedeno- a guy who can step in and play right now, and still has a ton of upside.
Gallagher- another guy who can step in immediately, and has the stuff to develop into a mainstay in their rotation.
Colvin: strikes out a lot but tons of power. Could project as an Adam Dunn type of hitter in the big leagues, i.e. a ton of K's but good for 30+ HR and 100+ RBIs each year.
Veal: prospect with great stuff and a ton of upside.

To me, that's a fair deal. But if I'm Hendry, I'd throw in Patterson or another arm if I had to. I really don't think Ceda will be included in any deal as Cubs brass seems to have really fallen in love with him.

My basic points are: Cubs fans, we need to realize that we need Roberts more than the O's need to give him to us. A legit shot at winning our first title in a century is worth overpaying by a prospect or two. We've been playing for the future for 100 years. It's time to push our chips to the middle of the table and go for broke.

O's fans: We know you love Roberts, and if he comes to Chicago I'm sure he'll win us over as well. He's an excellent ballplayer, but at the same time we're not talking about an A-Rod/Pujols/Soriano type of bat here or an ace pitcher like Bedard or Santana. He's got a lot of value, but not the kind of value that going to make some team, whether it be the Cubs or someone else, give up every elite prospect in their organization. With the deal I mentioned above, they're getting the highest rated pitching prospect the Cubs have in Gallagher, their highest rated OF prospect in Colvin, an infielder who can help you right now and has upside, and a talented pitching prospect with a lot of upside. It's not 'spare parts', as many of you have termed it. Is it the equal of the haul you got for Bedard? No, but you shouldn't expect it to be because Roberts, as good as he is, doesn't have close to Bedard's value.

“Did you happen to look at what the upgrade actually is, dark? Or just siding with ambiguous wins? Roberts WARP advantage is purely league/park adjustment and stolen bases. “

…Took the VORP for pure batting upgrade and think we added between .5-1 games for the D upgrade (DeRosa didn’t play all 2B so… and Cubs fans agreed that the 2B D addition was about right) That ends with a 3-4 Win increase purely on 07 without factoring that DeRosa wouldn’t even really be the one that’s replaced since he will still get 400+ ABs (I believe, like I said it was 2+ months ago now and everyone ~ Cubs fans included ~ pretty much agreed with it so…)

VORP doesn’t factor in park-adjustments. It values straight numbers and the dramatic difference comes more from the fact that Roberts was able to hold that line for +142 more AB. He had 57 more total bases with the bat and 50 SB ~ that’s more than 100 extra bases over DeRosa in 2007.

Also to those saying that about DeRosa is close to Roberts though, and since you broght it up, has anyone looked at the Park-Adjusted stateliness that PECOTA provides?
Roberts .295/.388/.456
DeRosa .288/.371/.418
…That’s rather consistent to the 102 OPS+ (DeRosa) to 112 OPS+ (Roberts) we see...

No matter which stats you look at though, you end up with Roberts being dramatically better than DeRosa every time. When you combine that he does it over more ABs (his being an ideal LO batter enhances this) & the Park Factors, well lets just say its not even remotely close to eachother despite the BA/OBP/SLG lines.

milehigh,

Tim (the owner of the site) actually said that he sees Roberts adding two games, so you can start the criticism with him. jk..

Anyway...I think that Gallgher\Ceda\Patterson or Cedeno\Veal has to get this done. If Andy wants more, give him the finger. Seriously, you aren't going to get more than that from a different team...

Outlaw, you just said that my offer would be fine with you...so we are in agreement? Cool

There are probably 15 teams that could lose a certain guy or two that would be in big trouble...saying that is not really saying anything. Funny thing is that BP mentioned that the Cubs have better backups for first base (Soto can play it, so can Ward, and probably Murton) than most do. Theriot and DeRosa can play 3rd, and Patterson seems to at least be able to put up league average numbers right now, as he is projected to do. So I don't really think that argument is all that valid in the first place. This team will probably win the division with or without this trade, and anything can happen in the playoffs. DeRosa could get hot at just the right time where Roberts wouldn't...Roberts is obviously a better player, but you can't tell me a 2nd basemen who is 1 to 4 wins better over the coarse of a season is going to put them over the top. This team should win the central as predicted with or without him, and anything could happen in the playoffs. I don't think the Cubs are as desperate as Delvsh and many others are implying. Especially if Patterson keeps playing like he has pretty much from the draft to spring training.

Sorry dark, you're wrong. Firstly, using VORP is a bit disingenuous because it's a counting stat. I mentioned the wins from WARP because I was mainly focusing on the real difference between their EqA. Work it out, figure out the rEqA sans league adjusting. The difference is all stolen bases and adjustment. As for the "D upgrade," I don't care what "fans" agreed with you -- it's not very accurate. If you haven't watched to judge for yourself, then look at a few things such as RZR, OOZ, UZR, +/-, PMR, etc. and tell me how much better it says Roberts is. There is no significant difference in their defense. Period.

The one thing you're right on is the amount of at-bats. Perhaps you stretch that into being some sort of proof of a full season but it'd be an often lot of assuming (that DeRosa would flop with more playing time) to dismiss rate stats.

Beckett and Santana were both about 8.5 wins above replacement player. So you think that Roberts is 5 wins above Derosa? I understand the whole lineup change and all that...but I still think 3 is a much better and more realistic number.

This is becoming even more of a joke everyday!

I'm not even going to bother posting my thoughts on this trade because it's already been said.

I just think it's funny how much time and dedication that darkstar is putting into all these countless and long-winded posts saying all the same things even after you spent numerous posts complaining about how pointless the new threads about these Roberts rumors are. Dark, I have but one suggestion that may help you work out these obsessive issues. It's called a JOB...or perhaps a GIRLFRIEND!!! It looks like maybe milehigh is fulfilling one of those roles for you, but I think I speak for the majority of us in asking you two to please get a room if you're going to insist on patting each others butts after every post. It's making me ill.