Three July Trade Predictions

Why would the Padres trade Kouzmanoff - a low salaried rising star under team control for several more years - for Bay, who is expensive and soon on the market? And throw in a projected #3-4 starter to boot? No. The 'dres front office would have to half-wits; they're not. Besides which they are training Headley for left.

The Rays will trade for someone on a struggling NL West team. They will send a mid-level prospect to the Dodgers for a half-season of Derek Lowe.

Oh a side note, if Ed Wade was the GM of the Rays, then we'd see Price and Davis be moved this summer for Javier Vazquez.

Indeed you have pegged my rooting interests. But take away April and Kouz had an astonishing rookie season. Bud Black is batting him 3rd in tonight's starting lineup. They like LeBlanc a lot too. Something like AA catcher Hundley for Nady mid season is more likely I think.

Does Vazquez still have troubles most of the time after the 5th inning?

Also in Trade proposals it would be geat if the Rays-Cubs could hoook up to get that Murton thing done b/c the Rays can make a real offer for a real player in Murton, giving the Cubs some great depth for the July deadline. It could possibly go Veal, Chris Mason (From the Rays), E-Pat, Cedeno, and another A level rays arm for Brian Roberts, that way the fleecing feels like less of a fleece.

Smoltz and Glavine end their season with injuries and the Braves are out of the playoff race by the deadline.

They decide to trade Mark Teixiera to the Yankees for P's Ian Kennedy, Ross Ohlendorf and Angel Reyes and 1B prospect Alberto Acosta.

If Kenny Williams were to go into complete rebuilding mode, then I could see this Vazquez deal happening.

Then you would also see maybe Thome to the Mariners for some prospects and they may try to get Dye to waive his no trade clause and move him to a contender. Crede would definatly be dealt. You could also see Cabrera and Konerko moved. I could see them being moved to build the farm system the Williams has dismantled.

I would like to see the Cubs trade for Burnett , but I would think there would be a few teams that could offer a few better deals .

If the Cubs don't win it all in three years I would love to see the Cubs tear it down and start all over , but it will never happen .

If for some reason the Indians are out of real contention come July I would like to see the Cubs make a move for C.C. Then at least the Indians would get something and the Cubbies get that big arm for the run. Won't happen but if it could.....

I think Kouz has about a 30% chance of out-hitting Bay this season.

I think the chances of Kouz coming within 1 win of WARP of Bay are greater than 50%.

Given their positions and salaries, Kouz is much more valuable. Can't see Towers doing this, no way.

I could see the Yankees trading for an innings-eater.

If Giambi cannot play 1b...Yankees get Nick Johnson from the Nationals for a pitcher (Karstens possibly?)

Myers, Hamels and Blanton would be an awesome top of the rotation

with those 3 horses at the top and that lineup they would be the toughest team in the NL

No go on the Rays trading Wade Davis AND taking on salary. It simply does not fit into their operational style. They are going to need every pinched penny in order to sign Kazmir to a long-term contract. Even that may not be enough to keep him in the fold, Kazmir may have had enough of the Rays already.

I agree with phillinois, the Yankees get Nick Johnson. However, they have to pay through the nose and chip in Rassner as well as Karstens.

Hey sunny reiser i may not have made it clear so I apologize, by a High Upside #4 I mean this guy has the potential to be a very good back of the rotation starter, an innings eater with a career minor league 2.56 ERA and an excact 1.00 WHIP, Also he is a PECOTA favorite (if you give an credence to that).

After realizing they have created a clone of the 1997 LA Dodgers team (seriously, take a look at the numbers...Mondesi, Piazza, Butler, Zeile, Karros, Ramon Martinez, Nomo equals Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, Soto, Zambrano, Lilly), the Cubs will trade away Soriano in an attempt to get rid of his exploding contract before his speed and power totally disappear.

Making bad predictions about the Padres again?

'bkoke', I agree wit you.

" Karsten? Wasn't he the one that gave up 4 homers in a row to the Red Sox?"

No, but I believe he was the one that was caught with Eliot Spitzer!

Yeesh, people really don't like Bay. If Bay's 2007 was a down year and he reverts back to his '04-'06 form, he's a much better hitter than Kouzmanoff. If he doesn't, then he's close to the same hitter as Kouzmanoff. And it's not like Kouz can point to his defense as an added value.

But here's the big difference...Jason Bay hits RH pitchers....Kouz doesn't.

So that trade Tim "made up" (for fun) isn't that bad, considering that Kouz may end up part of a platoon one day.

I love when people talk about the White Sox re-building and saying they should trade off their star players, then listing off a half dozen or more guys (like sager729 did this time). If you have that many 'star' players, it seems like a dumb time to rebuild. I don't think the Sox will make the playoffs, but there's enough talent on the team to make a legitimate push. Unfortunately Cleveland and Detroit will have a lot to say about it.

Also, what was the deal about Vazquez 'not having a winning attitude?' I actually haven't heard anything like that. The comment on him being under .500 from '04 to '06 is true, but just barely. He was 36-37 in that stretch. From MLB.com: "In '07 he recorded 10+ wins, 30+ starts and 150+ strikeouts for the eighth consecutive season, the only pitcher in baseball to accomplish the feat."

heres some serious trade preditions

1)Rangers trade Byrd and Laird to Cubs for Veal, Patterson, and Colvin.

2)Pirates trade Bay to Rangers for Patterson(just recieved in Cubs deal) and Teagarden.

3)Braves trade Teixeira to Yankees for Cabrera, Kennedy, and Horne.

4)3 Way deal. Rays get Daniel Cabrera. Cubs get Brian Roberts. Orioles get Davis, Jennings, Gallagher, Murton, and Ceda.

"3 Way deal. Rays get Daniel Cabrera. Cubs get Brian Roberts. Orioles get Davis, Jennings, Gallagher, Murton, and Ceda."

Sounds great for the O's and Cubs, but what's in it for the Rays? Davis and Jennings could fetch more then D-Cab, who will lead MLB in walks again. Not a bad idea though. I could see Gurthie in place of D-Cab if he can repeat last seasons performance.

Thank you ChiSoxSLIM, I was just going to bring up those numbers. Vazquez is anything but mediocre. And, no, he doesn't have problems in the 5th or 6th inning any more.

The White Sox are nothing going to re-build. Anderson will not be starting in CF for the White Sox again in his career. As for moving Thome or Konerko, you move Thome in order to slide Dye into the DH place, keep him healthy. Konerko is the choice to keep because he is an above average defensive 1B and you are guaranteed 30 HR's and at least 90 RBI's. As long as Kenny Williams is GM, there will not be a re-building period for the White Sox, period.

Braves are in a fight with the Phils and Mets and trade JoJo Reyes, Brandon Jones and Brent Lilibridge for Rich Harden

The thing is...Reed Johnson isn't going to be as good as people think. He's not playing in Toronto no more. If he isn't hitting expect Jim Henry to go get Byrd. Especially if Soto doesn't pan out. The Rangers and Cubs match up nicely for trades.

The Phillie deal won't work, only because Beane will ask for the moon, and Philly doesn't have one.

Adam Dunn and ??? (Homer Bailey?) to the Indians for C. C. Sabathia.

Dunn and Sabathia are potential Free Agents after the season and both teams probably don't want to lose them for just two Amateur Draft Picks.

With Dunn and Ken Griffey Junior's salaries off the books for 2009, the Reds would have over $22 million free to sign Sabathia long term. That way, the Reds get a stud Pitcher without having to give up ALL their young players, like they would have when rumors were going around about Bedard and Blanton.

The Indians would get a power hitting Left Fielder (which they need) who could also be a DH, which Dunn should be anyways because of his BAD Defense. Plus, they get a potential ace in Bailey.

This would work because Dunn's Wife has already said she doesn't really want to move far away from her parents, who live in Dayton. So, she would still be fairly close to her parents.

Also, since a LOT of Reds fans beotch about the team NOT having enough good Pitching, Sabathia would take care of that and shut those people up.

Finally, since Dunn is rated as one of the worst Defensive Left Fielders in the NL (according to the Fielding Bible) and GASP is a hitter friendly ball park, it shouldn't be too hard to repalce Dunn's Offense, especially when you look at his COMPLETE Game and see what Dunn REALLY contributes to the team.

In 2007, Dunn drove in 106 RBI's while hitting 40 Home Runs. John DeWan says he cost the Reds at least 20 Runs because of his Defense and teh best way to account for those Runs is to subtract them from his RBI's. If you do that, then Dunn really only contributed 86 RBI's, something easily replacable.

Now, in 2007, Josh Willingham drove in 89 RBI's for the Marlins, who play in a Pitcher's park. Yes, his Defense is just as bad as Dunn's but it would improve because he would be playing in a smaller park and would ahve less territory to cover. Also, his Offense should improve, just like almost EVERYBODY'S does who comes to the Reds. So, improved Defense and better Offense shrinks the gap between what Dunn and Willingham could provide the Reds.

Th BIG thing is the difference between Dunn and WIllingham's salary. Dunn in 2007 - $10 million dollars. Willingham in 2007 - $385,000 dollars. So, the potential difference in Offense produced between the two players is, at most, 20 Runs while the salary difference is at least $9.5 million (probably mroe now that Dunn is going to make $13 million in 2008).

So, to recap. Dunn and Bailey to the Indians for Sabathia. Then Matt Belisle to the Marlins for Josh Willingham.

The Reds Offense stays about the same while the Pitching is improved.

Mr. Dierkes, I don't agree one little bit with the Padres-Pirates trade you pro-
pose. Neil Walker will be
ready in about a year or so,
and he is the future at 3rd
in Pitt. No need whatsoever
for Kouz, and if there's one
thing the Bucs have in abun-
dance, it's young left-handers.

Some of those Tex rumors were flat out hilarious. Why would we want Cabrera? We have Schafer in the minors and Frenchy and Diaz in the majors that are good. Cabrera would be a waste. Yeah we would want a #3 starter at best in Kennedy. (thats right I said that. Kennedy is gonna be at BEST a #3 and everybody OUTSIDE of New York know it). And What about Horne? lol.

I would rather just keep Tex and risk losing him in Free Agency than take some of those packages.

Did somebody JUST say trade JoJo Reyes, Brandon Jones, AND Lillibridge for Harden? that is funny, mainly because Harden is like Prior he can never stay healthy. I admit that WHEN Harden is healthy he is ONE of the best in the game but the same can be said about Mark Prior and you see how that has turned out. I would trade Brandon Jones, and Chuck James for Harden. That is about all that Harden is worth right now and if Beane was offered that right now he would probably take that deal because that is a better package than nothing at all.

But I doubt we trade for Harden. I figure IF we trade with Oakland it will be for Blanton. I could see us trading Brandon Jones, Lillibridge, and Reyes for Blanton. That would be a good package for Blanton but of course other teams could probably beat that offer so I dont know.

I agree with most of the people here when talking about the possible Padres-Bucs trade. I am not sure of this or anything but i believe they needed catching help, so would it not make more sense to trade some of the catching depth we have in the minor leagues?
I think it would be more something like LeBlanc and Colt Morton, and something to get Bay. They don't have a need for an infielder with little defense.
I also don't think that they are going to be switching Headley back the third base.

Tim, I don't think your trades are "ridiculous"...I just don't think they match the named teams philosophies and needs.

The A's will want (and probably get) more for Blanton at the trade deadline.

The Pirates have their Walker in the minors, so dealing for a defensively challenged third baseman doesn't make sense.

The Rays aren't likely to abandon their build from within mindset just yet for an expensive option unlikely to be better than the guys they have. If anything, I think they're likely to deal Kazmir due to his injury likelihood, though again, probably not this season.

I will say, after watching the Tigers bullpen's first horrible outting, that we should wait to see Detroit bust a move to upgrade and upgrade quick.

My tries:

Reds deal Homer Bailey to Rangers for Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Both teams fans are likely to quibble over who is more valuable and a much lesser prospect could be included depending on who is right. Pitching is the more valued commodity but the outcome is less certain; Salty is more likely to make an immediate impact. Both players fit the other's needs, and the Rangers still have Teagarden and other catching prospects in the pipeline.

White Sox send Crede, Uribe, Contreras and Brian Anderson to the Dodgers for Pierre, Abreu, Kuo, Dewitt, Dejesus and $5M in cash. Both teams get rid of things they don't want (Crede, Uribe, Contreras for the Sox; Pierre and to a lesser extent Abreu for LA) and the Sox get 3-4 serviceable players (none are likely to be stars) to offset Pierre's lack of value. Crede holds down 3B; Uribe backs up SS and 2B, and the Dodgers can actually cut Contreras (eating his $19M in salary) easier than they would Pierre since THEY didn't sign Contreras (it's always easier to admit someone ELSE's mistake than it is yours).

Reds ship Hatteberg to the Yankees for Jeff Karstens. By July, Votto will have proven his worth and the Reds can always use pitching.

Cardinals deal Kyle Lohse, Anthony Reyes and 1B/3B Allen Craig to Braves for Brent Lillibridge and Cory Rasmus. By July, the already shaky Braves rotation (Smoltz, James, Hampton, etc.) may need someone to hold down the fort and the equally shaky Cardinals may have a surplus with the potential returns of Carpenter, Mulder, Clement and Piniero. Craig could be a long term answer at 1B if Teixeira moves on. Cardinals have a blackhole at shortstop which the blocked Lillibridge would fill, while the Cardinals might find appealing the prospect of Cory Rasmus eventually joining his brother Colby in St. Louis.

Also, if anyone disagrees with me thts fine but I'm just going with Buster Olney when he was Talking on Baseball Tonight and he said ''Cubs at some point are going to get Brian Roberts.''

cubbies2008, If the O's wouldn't do Gallagher, Veal, Ceda, and Cedeno for Roberts alone, then why would they do Marshall, Patterson, Cedeno, Ceda for Roberts and Sherril.

that is an interesting proposal devish. reyes and craig could definitely hit the road. two things that could affect this. one is i wouldnt be counting the cardinals out so fast. im telling u after seeing spring they look like a winning team. people will say its just spring but ive been watching them and where i am definitely biased i think they will be good. the cards have karma, the cubs have anti-karma. u cant tell me this doesnt matter. when cubs fans go to watch games they expect them to lose. cards fans expect great things and the cards usually deliver.

the second thing is the braves need to be in contention. they do also seem to be but im just not sure. the cards could also trade clement, mulder, looper, and maybe even piniero. a lot of free agents coming up and there isnt much difference between any of these guys. we also need a young starter. i would take jurgens, not jojo.

None of those trades are going to happen and they all terribly favor the Giants, The Juice.

3)Braves trade Teixeira to Yankees for Cabrera, Kennedy, and Horne.

Hey guy who is stupid, why would the yankees trade kennedy, caberara and horne for a guy who they would get in the offseason.

if they would not include kennedy for johan santana, why would they trade him for texira..?

I Predict A Trade between the cubs and the A's at the trade deadline

The Cubs Get: Rich Harden and Joe Blanton

The A's Get: Ronnie Cedeno, Matt Murton, Jason Marquis, Sean Marshall, Jose Ceda And Donnie Veal

Reds trade Adam Dunn to the Angels for prospects.
Cardinals trade Anthony Reyes and Chris Duncan to the Rangers for Michael Young (blocking Arias and Andrus).
Dodgers trade Andy Laroche and Juan Pierre (plus cash to cover most of Pierre's salary) to the Athletics for Eric Chavez and Joe Blanton.

Dunn and Bailey for Sabathia makes sense because the Reds get a stud Pitcher without having to give up all their young guys. What OTHER team still has prospects left AND can pay what Sabathia is likely to want, as far as a long term deal is concerned?

Unlike in a lot of trades with prospects, Dunn is a KNOWN commodity. He would be an upgrade for Celveland in Left Field while also being to spell Hafner at DH some days. That way BOTH players get some rest during the season. Also, Dunn should only cost $15 or $16 million a year for three or four eyars while Sabathia is gong to get a higher salary per year plus, probably more years.

The Indians would get Bailey who will probably turn out to be a good Pitcher (but not the SAVIOUR many Reds fans have hoped he would be) and $3 million to $5 million dollars would be freed up to get another Pitcher, if they need one.

Again, what other teams have prospects AND money to spend on a guy like Sabathia? Plus, Sabathia might prefer playing in the Midwest instead of on the East Coast.

czechy1000,

How could Cincinnati pay for Sabathia? Here's how.

After the 2008 season, Dunn is a Free Agent and Ken Griffey Junior has a club option for $16.25 million or a $4 million dollar buy out.

Dunn is likely to want an increase from the $13 million he is making in 2007 and would also probably want a three or four year deal. So, that means $15 to $16 million a year for Dunn. Add that to KGJ's $16 million and that would be over $30 million, combined, for Dunn and KGJ for 2009. THAT would be roughly 1/3 of the Reds total team payroll, which would be TOTALLY stupid.

Playing in the ball park they play in, the Reds can EASILY find guys to put up good numbers on Offense. Look at the guys they have brought in in the past: Brandon Phillips, Scott Hatteberg, Joe Randa, David Ross, Todd Walker, etc. All of those guys' Offense improved when they played half their Games in GASP. Then lookat Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez. After they left the Reds, their Offense declined.

So, the REds could decline KGJ's option and pay him the $4 million, thus saving $12 million for 2009. Then, they could trade Dunn for Sabathia and save the $15 or $16 million they would be paying him. That equals $27 million free to sign Sabathia long term AND get another Left Fielder.

When you take Dunn's Defense into consideration, all the Reds would have to do to repalce Dunn would be to get a guy who plays average Defense and who could drive in 80 to 85 RBI's a year. I don't thik that would be too hard to do in GASP.

Plus, with Dunn, Cleveland would be getting a known quantity (and one which would upgrade a position on their team) and NOT some prospect who may or may not pan out. On top of that, they would be getting Bailey, a guy who I think is only going to fail with the Reds.

Fail because the expectations from Reds fans are too high for him and he is going to feeling the pressure for years and also because he needs to Pitch in a different ballpark than GASP.

forget Vasquez, Rays acquire Matt Cain for a package of two of the young stud pitching prospects plus three other sold players.

"Astros trade Cruz Jr. and Paulino for Blanton, getting the innings-eater they need to finish off their NL Central-leading season, beating the Mets in the playoffs and falling to the DBacks in 6."

Uhh no. I don't think people understand the cost of acquiring Joe Blanton. It's gonna end up taking something like 2 legitimate top prospects, like Tim said with Carrasco and Cardenas. You're not gonna get him for good prospects like Paulino. The Astros don't have wait it'd take to get Blanton. Plain and simple.

And I don't think that the Indians would be willing to do a Sabathia for Dunn/Bailey trade. Trading Sabathia is essentially going to be the Indians throwing in the tower for 2008. Regardless of the upgrade that Dunn presents in left field, the downgrade from Sabathia to Aaron Laffey would be equally as big. If the Indians were even in a position where they'd consider moving Sabathia, something like being 10-12 games down in June/July, then they'd probably look to move him for someone cheaper that could help them in the long run. If Bailey proves that he can pitch at the MLB level, then that changes the situation. If Bailey can prove to soften the blow in the rotation, then that'd completely change the trade. It'd definately be a fascinating trade. I'd be shocked if the Reds could afford Sabathia either though.

Another to think about will be Jason Bay of the Pirates going to the Seattle Mariners. The Pirates will soon realize they still need to rebuild. With Sexson flailing at DH, LaRoche, blocking slugging prospect Steve Pierce, will also go in the deal.

To get these two talented players the Mariners will trade Brandon Morrow, Jeff Clement, Mark Lowe(who will be having an outstanding year in the bullpen(, and young shortstop Carlos Triunfel.

Angels

Angels accuire Livan Hernadez for maicer isturis and a draft pick?

Rich Harden to NYY for Alan Horne, Jeff Marquez, Daniel McCutchen, Brad Suttle and Damon Sublett

Brian Fuentes to DET for Jordan Tata, Virgil Vasquez and Brent Clevlen